EC-Week-17.ppt

SJTUEngineeringEconomics-The8thLectureMakingDecisionsUnderuncertaintyDr.HuHaoShanghaiJiaoTongUniversitySJTUIntroductionElementsofaDecisionwithuncertaintyActionsAsetofpossibledecisions,Di,thatthedecisionmakermighttakeStatesofnatureAsetofuncertainevents,Ej,thatmayoccurPayoffsTheconsequencesoroutcomes,Oij,thatresultfromhavingchosenDiandsubjectedtoEjUsuallysummarizedonapayofftableSJTUPayoffTableActionsStatesofnatureE1E2Ej(P1)(P2)(Pj)D1O11O12O1jD2O21O22O2jDiOi1Oi2OijSJTUCommonNon-ProbabilisticMethods-（1）1.BreakevenanalysisCanbeusedwhentheselectionamongalternativesisheavilydependentonasingleparameterthatisuncertainAbreakevenpointforthefactorisdeterminedsuchthattwoalternativesareequallydesirablefromaneconomicstandpointNPVFactorXABSJTUBreakEvenAnalysis盈虧分析又稱作盈虧平衡分析，夠本分析研究一個(gè)項(xiàng)目的營(yíng)業(yè)收入、成本和產(chǎn)銷量之間的關(guān)系，確定夠本點(diǎn)，預(yù)測(cè)產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量對(duì)項(xiàng)目盈虧的影響項(xiàng)目的投資、成本、銷量、產(chǎn)品價(jià)格等都會(huì)影響投資方案的經(jīng)濟(jì)效果，當(dāng)這些因素變化達(dá)到一臨界值時(shí)，可能會(huì)影響項(xiàng)目的取舍，盈虧平衡分析就是為了找出這種臨界值，以判斷方案對(duì)不確定因素的承受能力。夠本點(diǎn)（Breakevenpoint)是營(yíng)業(yè)總收入和總成本正好相等的產(chǎn)銷量，即利潤(rùn)等于零時(shí)的營(yíng)業(yè)水平。SJTU1、代數(shù)法銷售收入：生產(chǎn)總成本：BEP:p:單位銷售單價(jià)X:年產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)銷量Tr:年銷售稅金及附加F:年產(chǎn)品固定總成本v:單位產(chǎn)品可變成本夠本點(diǎn)的確定rTpXY1vXFY2XTvpFBEPYYrx/21SJTU盈虧分析的基本假設(shè)生產(chǎn)量等于銷售量單位產(chǎn)品的銷售價(jià)格、可變成本和固定生產(chǎn)成本