能源行業(yè)市場周評：本輪油價(jià)漲幅受供應(yīng)的推動(dòng)較少130208

1、高盛國際 2013 年 2 月 8 日 能源市場周評 本輪油價(jià)漲幅受供應(yīng)的推動(dòng)較少 研究報(bào)告 本輪布倫特油價(jià)上漲與 2011 年和 2012 年情形類似 布倫特油價(jià)近期上漲超過每桶 117.00 美元，達(dá)到 9 個(gè)多月以來的最高水平，接近 我們對 2013 年一季度每桶 115.00 美元的預(yù)測。這與 2011 年和 2012 年的情形類 似，當(dāng)時(shí)布倫特油價(jià)也是在這一時(shí)間段前后開始大幅上漲。但我們認(rèn)為本輪上漲 受供應(yīng)沖擊的推動(dòng)較少，更多因需求改善所致。 需求大幅上升，供應(yīng)沖擊較弱 需求方面，近幾個(gè)月全球石油需求高于預(yù)期，這與經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)升溫一致（表現(xiàn)為全 球 pmi 反彈）。供應(yīng)方面，2011 年

2、（利比亞產(chǎn)量下降）和 2012 年（伊朗出口下 降）的負(fù)面沖擊導(dǎo)致全球產(chǎn)量下降，并推動(dòng)市場進(jìn)入季節(jié)性短缺。盡管今年并未 出現(xiàn)類似的供應(yīng)緊縮，但 11、12 月份 opec 產(chǎn)量因沙特產(chǎn)量大幅下降而走低。 此外，美國目前的運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)瓶頸也開始影響全球原油供應(yīng)，因?yàn)榧幽么笤彤a(chǎn)量 增長日益因?yàn)殡y以運(yùn)至美國煉油廠而受到威脅。 stefan wieler, cfa (212) 357-7486 高盛集團(tuán) 杰夫可瑞 (212) 357-6801 高盛集團(tuán) samantha dart +44(20)7552-9350 johan spetz (212) 357-9225 高盛集團(tuán) 我們預(yù)計(jì)短期內(nèi)全球庫存仍然

3、緊張 供應(yīng)減少可能對已經(jīng)較低的全球原油庫存產(chǎn)生影響。國際能源署在 1 月份的月度 石油市場報(bào)告中再度下調(diào)了全球石油庫存，而且大部分庫存壓力仍來自石油以 外。經(jīng)美國 ngl 和“其他”石油庫存調(diào)整后，全球庫存再度跌破去年的極低水 平。盡管我們預(yù)計(jì)除非出現(xiàn)進(jìn)一步供應(yīng)沖擊，今年不會(huì)出現(xiàn)類似 2011 年和 2012 年油價(jià)大幅上漲的局面，但我們預(yù)計(jì) 2013 年一季度全球市場仍將趨緊，過去幾 周我們短期預(yù)測面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已趨于上行。我們因此仍建議買入標(biāo)普 gsci 布倫特 原油總回報(bào)指數(shù)，該指數(shù)受益于遠(yuǎn)期曲線現(xiàn)貨升水的展期收益。 投資者不應(yīng)視本報(bào)告為作出投資決策的唯一因素。 有關(guān)分析師的申明和其他重要信

4、息，見信息披露附錄，或參閱 高盛集團(tuán) 2 2013 年 2 月 8 日亞太 this time its less about supply brent crude oil prices have rallied to over $117.00/bbl recently, the highest level in over 9 months and close to our forecast of $115.00/bbl for 1q13. this is reminiscent of the last two years when brent prices began to rally sha

5、rply around the same time of year (see exhibit 1). the rallies in 2011 and 2012 had somewhat similar drivers, with economic activity and oil demand surprising to the upside and supply falling short of previous expectations in the spring due to the civil war in libya (1.5 million b/d) and the us and

6、european sanctions against iran (1.25m million b/d). this pushed the market into a seasonally adjusted deficit, leading to slower-than-normal inventory builds in spring, and pushed prices sharply higher. some of the drivers behind the 2011 and 2012 rallies have partially lined up again, supporting b

7、rent crude oil prices. however, this time we believe the rally is less driven by supply shocks and instead by improving demand. while we do not forecast a similar price spike this year as in 2011 and 2012 absent any further supply shocks, we expect the global market to remain tight throughout 1q13 a

8、nd the risks to our near-term forecast have shifted to the upside over the past weeks. further, we believe that the recent rally has been driven by improving fundamentals rather than by an increasing risk premium in the market. while the recent news headlines suggest that tensions in the middle east

9、 have been increasing, crude oil option markets continue to exhibit a negative call skew and very low implied volatility, which is inconsistent with a view that the market attaches higher upside risk to prices. demand has recently surprised to the upside, particularly in non-oecd countries, consiste

10、nt with the pick-up in economic activity as reflected in the rebound in global pmis (see exhibit 2). in china, implied oil demand rebounded strongly in 4q12, up 800 thousand b/d year-over-year after being roughly flat in 2q12 and 3q12. further, oil demand in brazil has been much stronger than expect

11、ed as low hydro-electric generation levels led to the increased use of diesel fuel for power generation purposes. economic activity in the oecd economies also looks a lot healthier lately. exhibit 1: the recent rally in brent prices is reminiscent of the rally in 2011 and 2012 $/bbl exhibit 2: globa

12、l economic growth picked up meaningfully in january pmi, % 130.00130.0052.053.0 51.5 125.00 120.00 120.00 110.00 51.0 50.5 52.5 52.0 50.0 115.00100.00 49.551.5 49.0 110.00 105.00 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 48.5 48.0 47.5 47.0 51.0 50.5 50.0 sepoctnovdecjanfebmarapr 2012 - 132011 - 122010 -11 (rhs)glob

13、aladvanced economiesemerging markets (rhs) source: ice and goldman sachs global ecs research.source: cnbs and goldman sachs global ecs research. manufacturing production in both germany and the uk rebounded strongly in december and our economists proprietary map score, which tracks economic data sur

14、prises relative to consensus shows that economic data began to surprise to the upside in the us in late 2012. this is 高盛全球經(jīng)濟(jì)、商品和策略研究 3 2013 年 2 月 8 日亞太 consistent with growing oil demand growth in december and january after having been in a year- over-year decline for 12 straight months. on net, the

15、 iea revised 4q12 global demand growth higher to 1.55 million b/d in the january oil market report from 850 thousand b/d in the december report. on the supply side, global output was heavily affected by the shortfall in libyan production in spring 2011 and the shortfall in iranian exports in spring

16、2012. while there has not been any similar supply shock this year, global crude output has been negatively impacted by saudi arabias decision to cut production sharply in november and december. more specifically, the iea reports that saudi production dropped to 9.4 million b/d in december, from a pe

17、ak of 10.1 million b/d last summer. a reuters report from january 11 suggests that production might have dropped to as low as 9 million b/d in november and december without indicating whether that includes production from the neutral zone. we believe that this apparent output curtailment is partly d

18、riven by the strong seasonality in saudi domestic oil demand. typically, saudi refinery input and direct crude use peak in the summer due to increased power consumption from air- conditioning and troughs in the first quarter, with an average peak-to-trough demand swing in the 500-600 kbd range. the

19、recent drop in output could therefore simply reflect these demand patterns which were masked last year by the need to bring on production in order to offset the effects on global oil supply from the us and european sanctions against iran. nevertheless, the recent cut in saudi production could put fu

20、rther pressure on already low global inventories. importantly, however, unlike in 2011 and 2012, the recent drop in opec output is not the result of a supply shock but rather due to voluntarily cuts by saudi arabia and thus has created spare capacity that can be brought back if needed. consequently,

21、 absent any further supply shocks, we believe the supply side will be just temporarily impacted this year. in addition to the saudi production cuts, the ongoing bottlenecks in the us transportation system are also beginning to impact global crude supply. more specifically, as we highlighted in our l

22、ast energy watch (see energy watch: houston, we might have a problem, january 22, 2013), the growth in canadian crude production is increasingly jeopardized by the inability to send the crude to refineries in the united states. absent any transportation bottlenecks, we would expect canadian producti

23、on to grow by 200 thousand b/d this year, with the kearl lake project with a capacity of 110 thousand b/d expected to come online over the next couple of weeks. however, with the exception of some new rail capacity, we do not expect these transportation issues to be alleviated until 3q13, which pose

24、s a major risk to canadian crude production growth this year. these supply curtailments may weigh on already low global crude oil stocks. the iea revised global petroleum inventories lower again in its january monthly oil market report, pushing the year-on-year overhang from 62 million barrels to 23

25、 million barrels between september and november 2012 (see exhibit 3). more importantly, a large portion of this inventory overhang continues to consist of the wrong type of stocks. as we highlighted before (see energy weekly; plenty of the wrong type of stocks, december 13, 2012), most of the excess

26、 inventory is not crude or petroleum products such as gasoline or distillates, but rather ngls and condensates, which are not directly used in the transportation sector. the warm 2011/2012 winter resulted in record high ngl inventories at the end of the heating season, which were further bolstered b

27、y strong supply growth from us shale oil and gas production. strong condensate production on the back of growing shale oil production is also likely responsible for a large share of the current crude oil inventory overhang in the united states. adjusting global inventories for us ngl and “other” pet

28、roleum stock reveals that global inventories have again dropped below last years already critically low levels (see exhibit 4). 高盛全球經(jīng)濟(jì)、商品和策略研究 4 2013 年 2 月 8 日 exhibit 3: global inventories were revised lower again million barrels 2850 november 2012 iea oil market 亞太 exhibit 4: and dropped below las

29、t years levels when adjusted for the overhang in us ngl and other stocks global petr. stocks ex us ngl and “other”; million barrels 2550 2800 2750 2700 2650 2600 report january 2013 iea oil market report december 2012 iea oil market report 2500 2450 2400 2350 2300 janfebmaraprmayjunjulaugsepoctnovde

30、cjanfebmaraprmayjunjulaugsepoctnovdec 20122011201020092012 (dec omr)2012 (nov omr)20122011201020092008 source: iea, goldman sachs global ecs researchsource: iea, goldman sachs global ecs research. these supportive fundamental factors have pushed brent prices closer to our 1q13 target of $115/.00/bbl

31、. we do not believe we will see a sharp rally in brent this year similar to what we saw last year, unless we get a similar supply shock again. that said, we do expect that the current tightness in global inventories to persist through 1q13 and the risks to our near-term forecast have shifted to the

32、upside. while we expect that 2q13 will bring some easing to the global inventory situation as new permian pipelines begin to divert crude way from cushing and the inventory overhang in the us midwest moves to the usgc, global inventories will likely remain tight. we therefore continue to recommend a

33、 long position in the s&p gsci brent total return index, which benefits from the roll yield provided by backwardation in the curve. 高盛全球經(jīng)濟(jì)、商品和策略研究 5 2013 年 2 月 8 日 current trading recommendations 亞太 current tradesfirst recommendedinitial valuecurrent value current profit/(loss)1 the commodity carry

34、basket: crude, corn and base (ccb) long the s&p gsci petroleum, corn and copper total return indices, short the s&p gsci f3 aluminium total return index, equally weighted december 5, 2012 - 2013-2014 outlook100.00102.392.39 long nymex natural gas one-by-two call spread long one jul-13 nymex natural

35、gas $3.85/mmbtu call, short two jul-13 nymex natural gas $4.70/mmbtu calls november 11, 2012 - natural gas watch$0.12/mmbtu$0.12/mmbtu$0.00/mmbtu long jun-13 nymex wti crude vs. short jun-13 ice brent crude buy 1 jun-13 nymex wti crude, sell 1 jun-13 ice brent august 21, 2012 - energy weekly($12.33/

36、bbl)($16.27/bbl)($3.94/bbl) long s&p gsci brent crude oil total return index long s&p gsci brent crude oil total return index at initial index value of 1,174.26 august 21, 2012 - energy weekly1,174.261,242.01(5.00%) rolled from a long september 2012 nymex wti crude oil position on 21-aug-12 , carryi

37、ng forward a potential loss of 10.77% long gold buy april 2013 comex gold, sell $1,850/toz apr-13 call, buy $1,575/toz apr-13 put october 11, 2010 - precious metals$1,717.5/toz$1,681.6/toz$281.9/toz rolled from a long dec-12 comex gold future position on 4-dec-12 with a potential gain of $317.8/toz

38、as of close on february 6, 2013. inclusive of all previous rolling profits/losses. source: goldman sachs global ecs research. 高盛全球經(jīng)濟(jì)、商品和策略研究 4 1 2 3 4 6 2013 年 2 月 8 日 price actions, volatilities and forecasts 亞太 prices and monthly changes1 volatilities (%) and monthly changes2historical pricesprice

39、 forecasts3 units06 feb change implied2 change realized2 change 3q 11 4q 11 1q 12 2q 12 3q 12 4q 123m6m12m energy wti crude oil brent crude oil rbob gasoline nymex heating oil nymex nat. gas uk nbp nat. gas $/bbl $/bbl $/gal $/gal $/mmbtu p/th 96.62 116.73 3.04 3.19 3.42 65.87 3.53 5.42 0.28 0.17 0.

40、13 -0.78 22.5 21.6 21.0 21.0 32.6 14.5 -5.08 -3.59 -3.75 -2.76 -4.33 -4.27 11.9 10.7 17.8 14.3 36.1 20.7 -5.7 -6.4 -2.5 -2.6 -4.0 2.2 89.54 94.06 103.03 93.35 92.20 88.23 102.50 105.00 97.00 112.09 109.02 118.45 108.76 109.42 110.13 110.00 110.00 105.00 2.89 2.62 3.06 2.95 2.95 2.73 2.92 2.85 2.56 2

41、.98 2.98 3.16 2.89 3.00 3.05 3.10 3.09 3.01 4.06 3.48 2.50 2.35 2.89 3.54 3.75 3.75 4.25 57.03 61.56 57.46 55.89 56.92 66.12 59.80 57.60 65.00 industrial metals lme aluminum lme copper lme nickel lme zinc lme lead $/mt $/mt $/mt $/mt $/mt 2,099 8,245 18,325 2,168 2,422 39 160 970 128 29 18.8 17.2 22

42、.1 20.7 23.8 -0.56 -2.19 -3.36 -0.15 -1.95 16.8 11.7 19.5 15.9 17.0 -6.4 -6.1 -2.5 -7.0 -7.5 2,430 2,115 2,219 2,019 1,950 2,018 2,000 2,000 2,100 8,993 7,530 8,329 7,829 7,721 7,924 8,000 9,000 8,000 22,037 18,396 19,709 17,211 16,396 17,025 16,500 16,500 17,000 2,247 1,917 2,042 1,932 1,905 1,978

43、1,950 2,000 2,100 2,449 2,009 2,117 1,986 1,989 2,200 2,150 2,150 2,300 precious metals comex gold comex silver $/troy oz $/troy oz 1,678 31.9 29 1.9 12.9 23.6 0.11 0.25 11.5 24.8 -1.9 -6.1 1,704 38.8 1,685 31.8 1,693 32.7 1,612 29.4 1,654 29.9 1,719 32.6 1,825 30.5 1,805 30.1 1,800 30.1 agriculture

44、 cbot wheat cbot soybean cbot corn nybot cotton nybot coffee nybot cocoa nybot sugar cme live cattle cme lean hog cent/bu cent/bu cent/bu cent/lb cent/lb $/mt cent/lb cent/lb cent/lb 762 1,469 723 82 142 2,223 18.2 127.3 86.9 14 114 42 7 -5 3 -0.7 -5.7 0.7 25.8 19.8 24.5 20.4 28.1 25.2 20.8 9.8 14.3

45、 -0.32 -0.46 -1.60 0.00 -1.19 -0.85 -0.32 0.11 -0.70 16.8 15.7 13.9 19.3 27.9 23.2 19.8 12.3 13.6 -1.8 0.0 -1.4 5.1 -15.1 5.6 -3.1 -3.5 -2.9 690 1,356 696 106 256 2962 29 115 94 615 1,175 620 95 229 2,383 25 121 88 643 1,272 641 93 205 2,308 25 125 87 641 1,426 618 80 170 2,222 21 117 88 871 1,677 7

46、83 73 172 2,438 21 122 83 846 1,484 737 73 152 2,421 20 127 82 950 1,525 825 70 155 2,300 18.5 130.0 85.0 950 1,400 825 75 165 2,400 18.5 128.0 94.0 800 1,350 650 75 175 2,500 19.0 130.0 85.0 monthly change is difference of close on last business day and close a month ago. monthly volatility change

47、is difference of average volatility over the past month and that of the prior month (3-mo atm implied, 1-mo realized). price forecasts refer to prompt contract price forecasts in 3-, 6-, and 12-months time. based on lme three month prices. source: goldman sachs global ecs research estimates. 高盛全球經(jīng)濟(jì)、

48、商品和策略研究 7 2013 年 2 月 8 日亞太 信息披露附錄 分析師申明 我們，stefan wieler, cfa、 杰夫可瑞、 samantha dart、 johan spetz，在此申明，本報(bào)告所表述的所有觀點(diǎn)準(zhǔn)確反映了我們的個(gè)人看法，沒有受到公司業(yè)務(wù) 或客戶關(guān)系因素的影響。 高盛信息披露 全球產(chǎn)品；分發(fā)機(jī)構(gòu) 高盛全球投資研究部在全球范圍內(nèi)為高盛的客戶制作并分發(fā)研究產(chǎn)品。高盛分布在其全球各辦事處的分析師提供行業(yè)和公司的股票研究，以及宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、貨 幣、商品及投資組合策略的研究。本研究報(bào)告在澳大利亞由 goldman sachs australia pty ltd（abn 21 00

49、6 797 897）分發(fā)；在巴西由 goldman sachs do brasil corretora de ttulos e valores mobilirios s.a.分發(fā)；股票及其他研究在加拿大由高盛集團(tuán)分發(fā)；在香港由高盛（亞洲）有限責(zé)任公司分發(fā)；在印度由高 盛（印度）證券私人有限公司分發(fā)；在日本由高盛證券株式會(huì)社分發(fā)；在韓國由高盛（亞洲）有限責(zé)任公司首爾分公司分發(fā)；在新西蘭由 goldman sachs new zealand limited 分發(fā)；在俄羅斯由高盛 ooo 分發(fā)；在新加坡由高盛（新加坡）私人公司（公司號(hào)：198602165w）分發(fā)；在美國由高盛集團(tuán)分發(fā)。高盛國際 已批

50、準(zhǔn)本研究報(bào)告在英國和歐盟分發(fā)。 歐盟：高盛國際（由英國金融服務(wù)局監(jiān)管）已批準(zhǔn)本研究報(bào)告在英國和歐盟分發(fā)；goldman sachs ag（由聯(lián)邦金融監(jiān)管局監(jiān)管）可能也會(huì)在德國分發(fā)。 一般性披露 本研究報(bào)告僅供我們的客戶使用。除了與高盛相關(guān)的披露，本研究報(bào)告是基于我們認(rèn)為可靠的目前已公開的信息，但我們不保證該信息的準(zhǔn)確性和完整性，客 戶也不應(yīng)該依賴該信息是準(zhǔn)確和完整的。我們會(huì)適時(shí)地更新我們的研究，但各種規(guī)定可能會(huì)阻止我們這樣做。除了一些定期出版的行業(yè)報(bào)告之外，絕大多數(shù)報(bào) 告是在分析師認(rèn)為適當(dāng)?shù)臅r(shí)候不定期地出版。 高盛是一家集投資銀行、投資管理和證券經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)于一身的全球性綜合服務(wù)公司。高盛全球投資

51、研究部所研究的大部分公司與我們保持著投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)和其它 業(yè)務(wù)關(guān)系。美國證券經(jīng)紀(jì)交易商高盛是 sipc 的成員()。 我們的銷售人員、交易員和其它專業(yè)人員可能會(huì)向我們的客戶及我們的自營交易部提供與本研究報(bào)告中的觀點(diǎn)截然相反的口頭或書面市場評論或交易策略。我 們的資產(chǎn)管理部門、自營交易部和投資業(yè)務(wù)部可能會(huì)做出與本報(bào)告的建議或表達(dá)的意見不一致的投資決策。 本報(bào)告中署名的分析師可能已經(jīng)與包括高盛銷售人員和交易員在內(nèi)的我們的客戶討論，或在本報(bào)告中討論交易策略，其中提及可能會(huì)對本報(bào)告討論的證券市場 價(jià)格產(chǎn)生短期影響的推動(dòng)因素或事件，該影響在方向上可能與分析師發(fā)布的股票目

52、標(biāo)價(jià)格相反。任何此類交易策略都區(qū)別于且不影響分析師對于該股的基本評 級(jí)，此類評級(jí)反映了某只股票相對于報(bào)告中描述的研究范圍內(nèi)股票的回報(bào)潛力。 我們以及我們的關(guān)聯(lián)機(jī)構(gòu)、高級(jí)職員、董事和雇員，不包括股票分析師和信貸分析師，將不時(shí)地對本研究報(bào)告所涉及的證券或衍生工具持有多頭或空頭頭寸， 擔(dān)任上述證券或衍生工具的交易對手，或買賣上述證券或衍生工具。 在任何要約出售股票或征求購買股票要約的行為為非法的司法管轄區(qū)內(nèi)，本報(bào)告不構(gòu)成該等出售要約或征求購買要約。本報(bào)告不構(gòu)成個(gè)人投資建議，也沒有考 慮到個(gè)別客戶特殊的投資目標(biāo)、財(cái)務(wù)狀況或需求。客戶應(yīng)考慮本報(bào)告中的任何意見或建議是否符合其特定狀況，以及(若有必要)尋求專家的意見，包括稅務(wù)意 見。本報(bào)告中提及的投資價(jià)格和價(jià)值以及這些投資帶來的收入可能會(huì)波動(dòng)。過去的表現(xiàn)并不代表未來的表現(xiàn)，未來的回報(bào)也無法保證，投資者可能會(huì)損失本 金。外匯匯率波動(dòng)有可能對某些投資的價(jià)值或價(jià)格或來自這一投資的收入產(chǎn)生不良影響。 某些交