外文翻譯淺談ERP項目實施成功因素和風(fēng)險管理

1、外文翻譯稿淺談erp項目實施成功因素和風(fēng)險管理erp enterprise resource planning 企業(yè)資源計劃系統(tǒng),是指建立在信息技術(shù)基礎(chǔ)上,以系統(tǒng)化的管理思想,為企業(yè)決策層及員工提供決策運行手段的管理平臺。erp 不僅僅是一個軟件,更重要的是一個管理思想,它實現(xiàn)了企業(yè)內(nèi)部資源和企業(yè)相關(guān)的外部資源的整合。 通過軟件把企業(yè)的人、財、物、產(chǎn)、供、銷及相應(yīng)的物流、信息流、資金流、管理流、增值流等緊密地集成起來,實現(xiàn)資源優(yōu)化和共享。從臺灣當(dāng)?shù)氐慕ㄖ髽I(yè)實施的實例討論了erp成功實施的七個關(guān)鍵：密鑰系統(tǒng)、生產(chǎn)流程系統(tǒng)、erp基礎(chǔ)實施的優(yōu)先度、用戶自定義設(shè)置、參與者角色、咨詢者角色、實施表現(xiàn)

2、分級。erp是一種以市場和客戶需求為導(dǎo)向，以實行企業(yè)內(nèi)外資源優(yōu)化配置，消除生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營過程中一切無效的勞動和資源，實現(xiàn)信息流、物流、資金流、價值流和業(yè)務(wù)流的有機集成和提高企業(yè)競爭力為目的，以計劃與控制為主線，以網(wǎng)絡(luò)和信息技術(shù)為平臺，集客戶、市場、銷售、計劃、采購、生產(chǎn)、財務(wù)、質(zhì)量、服務(wù)、信息集成和業(yè)務(wù)流程重組(bpr)等功能為一體，面向scm的現(xiàn)代企業(yè)管理思想和方法。從臺灣企業(yè)的實例表明，成功應(yīng)用erp的基本要素主要有：必須增強企業(yè)自身主體意識；重視知識資源的開發(fā)與利用；充分調(diào)動人的積極性和創(chuàng)造性；深刻認(rèn)識我國企業(yè)應(yīng)用erp的根本目的；正確認(rèn)識erp項目是一個企業(yè)管理系統(tǒng)工程；企業(yè)一定要盡快、科學(xué)

3、的做出應(yīng)用scm、erp和bpr的決策；企業(yè)應(yīng)用erp一定要立足于創(chuàng)新和bpr；引入企業(yè)管理咨詢；認(rèn)真做好erp項目前期準(zhǔn)備工作；加強企業(yè)需求分析；制定明確、量化的erp應(yīng)用目標(biāo)；確保基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)的準(zhǔn)確性和時效性；加強erp項目風(fēng)險分析；建立erp項目變革管理體系；實行erp項目監(jiān)理制和評價制；完善和提高服務(wù)商的能力與水平。大量的研究與實踐充分表明，erp在我國應(yīng)用的成敗并不取決于技術(shù)、資金、網(wǎng)絡(luò)、應(yīng)用軟件和軟件實施，而主要取決于企業(yè)自身主體意識。企業(yè)是應(yīng)用erp的主體。企業(yè)應(yīng)用erp首先要提高思想認(rèn)識，轉(zhuǎn)變思想觀念，增強自身主體意識。只有增強了主體意識，才能提高主體能力，才能發(fā)揮主體作用，才能確

4、保erp項目的成功。參考國外的一些文獻(xiàn)資料，一個成功的erp項目，往往要花費數(shù)年時間，數(shù)千萬美元得以完成。再回頭看國內(nèi)，隨著erp懷疑論的抬頭，價格戰(zhàn)的興起，erp作為一種軟件供應(yīng)商的產(chǎn)品，卻有走下神壇趨勢。就連erp界的首領(lǐng)sap也推出了business one產(chǎn)品，價格低于十萬。不過，即便erp軟件能做到免費，或如ibm推崇的按需收費的境界，從整個企業(yè)實施的角度，考慮到人員、培訓(xùn)、維護(hù)、業(yè)務(wù)重組、二次開發(fā)、三次、n次開發(fā)，其費用應(yīng)該也在數(shù)百萬乃至千萬人民幣的規(guī)模。這對于國內(nèi)企業(yè)而言，已是不小的數(shù)目了。但是，還是有不少企業(yè)懷著美麗的夢想，踏上erp實施的艱辛之旅。其中又有不少項目以失敗告終。

5、而對于那些最后的幸存者，是否就可以還戟入倉，飲酒高歌呢？事實上，企業(yè)在成功實施erp項目后，將面對較實施前更大的風(fēng)險。在未來的五到十年中，是否有一個扎實的erp風(fēng)險管理機制將決定了企業(yè)是否能在最初的erp投資中真正獲益。1998年thomas h.davenport在哈佛商務(wù)評論發(fā)表了名為將企業(yè)放入企業(yè)系統(tǒng)的文章(putting the enterprise into the enterprise system)。該文系統(tǒng)地提出了企業(yè)系統(tǒng)，或稱erp系統(tǒng)給企業(yè)運作帶來積極及消極的引響。同時也直接提出了未來企業(yè)必須面對的一個風(fēng)險：將整個企業(yè)放入企業(yè)系統(tǒng)中的風(fēng)險。按照美國項目管理協(xié)會對風(fēng)險的定義，

6、“風(fēng)險”是指對項目有利或不利的不確定因素。項目是“為完成某一獨特的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)所做的一次性努力”，項目的“獨特性”決定了項目不可能是以與以前完全相同的方式、由與以前完全相同的人來完成的，同時，項目所要創(chuàng)造的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)，以及項目可能涉及的范圍、時間及成本都不可能在項目開始時完全確定，因此，在項目進(jìn)行過程中也相應(yīng)會出現(xiàn)大量的不確定性，即項目風(fēng)險。本文以下所提到的“風(fēng)險”是指對項目“不利”的不確定因素。對項目不利的風(fēng)險存在于任何項目中，并往往會給項目的推進(jìn)和項目的成功帶來負(fù)面影響。風(fēng)險一旦發(fā)生，它的影響是多方面的，如導(dǎo)致項目產(chǎn)品/服務(wù)的功能無法滿足客戶的需要、項目費用超出預(yù)算、項目計劃拖延或被迫取消等

7、，其最終體現(xiàn)為客戶滿意度的降低。因此，識別風(fēng)險、評估風(fēng)險并采取措施應(yīng)對風(fēng)險即風(fēng)險管理對項目管理具有十分重要的意義。一風(fēng)險管理的具體內(nèi)容項目風(fēng)險管理主要分為以下幾個步驟：風(fēng)險識別、定性/定量風(fēng)險分析、風(fēng)險應(yīng)對計劃編制及風(fēng)險監(jiān)控。1.風(fēng)險識別風(fēng)險識別，是指識別并記錄可能對項目造成不利影響的因素。由于項目處于不斷發(fā)展變化的過程中，因此風(fēng)險識別也貫穿于整個項目實施的全過程,而不僅僅是項目的開始階段。風(fēng)險識別不是一次性的工作，而需要更多系統(tǒng)的、橫向的思維。幾乎所有關(guān)于項目的計劃與信息都可能作為風(fēng)險識別的依據(jù)，如項目進(jìn)度及成本計劃、工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)、項目組織結(jié)構(gòu)、項目范圍、類似項目的歷史信息等。需要注意的是，

8、并非所有的風(fēng)險都可以通過風(fēng)險識別來進(jìn)行管理。風(fēng)險識別只能發(fā)現(xiàn)已知風(fēng)險（如：已知項目組織中某一成員能力不能完全滿足要求）或已知未知風(fēng)險（known-unknown,即“事件名稱已知”，如“客戶方人員參與力度不足”）；而某些風(fēng)險，由于項目的獨特性，不可能在其發(fā)生前預(yù)知(unknown-unknown,即未知未知風(fēng)險)。2.定性/定量風(fēng)險分析通過風(fēng)險識別過程所識別出的潛在風(fēng)險數(shù)量很多，但這些潛在的風(fēng)險對項目的影響是各不相同的。“風(fēng)險分析”即通過分析、比較、評估等各種方式，對確定各風(fēng)險的重要性，對風(fēng)險排序并評估其對項目可能后果，從而使項目實施人員可以將主要精力集中于為數(shù)不多的主要風(fēng)險上，從而使項目的整

9、體風(fēng)險得到有效的控制。風(fēng)險分析主要可采用的方法有：風(fēng)險概率/影響評估矩陣、敏感性分析、模擬等。在進(jìn)行上述分析時，主要關(guān)注以下幾個風(fēng)險因素：風(fēng)險概率：即風(fēng)險事件發(fā)生的可能性的百分比表示。這個數(shù)字是通過主觀判斷而獲得的，如專家評估、訪談或根據(jù)以前類似項目的歷史信息。風(fēng)險影響：即風(fēng)險發(fā)生可能對項目造成的影響大小。這種影響可能是時間上的，可能是成本上的，也可能是其他各方面的。風(fēng)險值（預(yù)期值emv）：風(fēng)險值=風(fēng)險概率風(fēng)險影響，是對風(fēng)險對項目造成的影響的最直接評估，它綜合考慮了概率與影響兩方面的因素。3.風(fēng)險應(yīng)對計劃編制風(fēng)險應(yīng)對計劃的目的在于通過制定相應(yīng)的措施，來應(yīng)對風(fēng)險對項目可能造成的威脅。最常采用的應(yīng)

10、對威脅的幾種措施是：規(guī)避、減輕、轉(zhuǎn)移、接受。規(guī)避，即通過消除風(fēng)險的成因來消除該風(fēng)險；減輕，即通過采取措施降低“風(fēng)險概率”或“風(fēng)險影響”,從而達(dá)到降低風(fēng)險值的結(jié)果；轉(zhuǎn)移，即將風(fēng)險轉(zhuǎn)移到另一方，如購買保險、分包等；接受，即對該風(fēng)險不采取措施，接受其造成的結(jié)果，或在該風(fēng)險發(fā)生后再采取應(yīng)急計劃進(jìn)行處理。具體采用何種方式來應(yīng)對某一風(fēng)險，取決于該風(fēng)險的風(fēng)險值（emv）、擬采取應(yīng)對措施的可能成本、項目管理人員對待風(fēng)險的態(tài)度（效用函數(shù)）類型等各方面，不可一概而論。風(fēng)險應(yīng)對計劃是針對已識別的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行的；對于未知未知的風(fēng)險，不可能預(yù)選制定相應(yīng)的應(yīng)對計劃或應(yīng)急計劃，因此，可以利用管理儲備來應(yīng)對。4.風(fēng)險監(jiān)控風(fēng)險監(jiān)控

11、主要包括以下幾方面的任務(wù)：1）在項目進(jìn)行過程中跟蹤已識別風(fēng)險、監(jiān)控殘余風(fēng)險并識別新風(fēng)險：隨著項目的實施以及風(fēng)險應(yīng)對措施的執(zhí)行，各種對項目的影響因素處于不斷變化的過程中，因此，需要在整個項目過程中，時刻監(jiān)督風(fēng)險的發(fā)展與變化情況，確定伴隨某些風(fēng)險的消失而來的新的風(fēng)險并制定相應(yīng)的處理措施。2）保證風(fēng)險應(yīng)對計劃的執(zhí)行并評估風(fēng)險應(yīng)對計劃執(zhí)行效果。評估的方法可以是項目周期（階段）性回顧、績效評估等。3）對突發(fā)的風(fēng)險或“接受”的風(fēng)險采取適當(dāng)?shù)臋?quán)變措施。通過風(fēng)險監(jiān)控過程，項目人員持續(xù)更新項目風(fēng)險列表，并通過重復(fù)上述各步驟保證項目風(fēng)險始終處于受控狀態(tài)。二erp項目實施的風(fēng)險管理不同類型的項目有不同類型的風(fēng)險。e

12、rp項目實施的風(fēng)險同樣有其特殊性。以下對erp項目實施過程中的風(fēng)險管理措施做一簡要說明，一家之言，僅供參考。1.erp項目實施中的主要風(fēng)險及應(yīng)對措施如前所述，“幾乎所有關(guān)于項目的計劃與信息都可能作為風(fēng)險識別的依據(jù)，如項目進(jìn)度及成本計劃、工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)、項目組織結(jié)構(gòu)、項目范圍、類似項目的歷史信息等?！痹趀rp項目的風(fēng)險識別過程中，可以以項目計劃為線索，識別項目在各方面的風(fēng)險。實施過程中，應(yīng)特別關(guān)注以下幾方面的風(fēng)險：1)項目范圍的風(fēng)險項目采購管理通常有三種合同方式，即：固定價或總價合同、成本報銷（加獎勵）合同、單價合同。通常不確定性越大、風(fēng)險越大的項目，越趨向于采用靠后的合同方式。這也是國外及國內(nèi)部

13、分erp供應(yīng)商在實施服務(wù)中采用按人天提供服務(wù)并收取費用的原因。但采用這種方式，買方（即客戶）存在較大的風(fēng)險，因此，國內(nèi)很多客戶傾向于以固定價格訂立實施服務(wù)合同。而這種合同方式，則對于賣方（即顧問方）存在較大風(fēng)險。在此前提下，若項目范圍定義不清晰，可能導(dǎo)致買賣雙方對項目范圍的認(rèn)知產(chǎn)生分歧：賣方希望盡量縮小實施范圍，以最小的成本結(jié)束項目；而買方則希望將erp系統(tǒng)的所有功能盡可能多的實施，以固定的價格獲得最大的收益。若雙方的分歧較大，不能達(dá)成一致，則必然會造成效率低下，相互扯皮。因此，erp項目合同中，應(yīng)對項目的實施范圍做盡可能清晰的界定，切不可停留在“實施財務(wù)模塊”或是“實施應(yīng)收、應(yīng)付、總賬管理”

14、之類的層面上。寧愿多花一些時間在項目實施前的范圍界定工作上，也不要在項目實施過程中，面對erp繁多的功能，實施方與用戶方爭執(zhí)不下，或被迫讓步，投入更大的精力于項目中，而導(dǎo)致項目不能按時完成。2）項目進(jìn)度的風(fēng)險關(guān)于erp項目實施的周期，目前在宣傳上有強調(diào)“快速”的傾向。但erp項目進(jìn)度的控制絕非易事，不僅取決于顧問公司的能力，同時也在很大程度上受到客戶方對erp期望值是否合理、對范圍控制是否有效、對項目投入（包括人員時間的投入和資金等的投入）是否足夠等方面的影響。由神州數(shù)碼提供erp系統(tǒng)并負(fù)責(zé)實施的昆山世同金屬，在較短時間內(nèi)上線成功，原因之一就是易飛erp實施小組完整成熟的導(dǎo)入機制及顧問人員卓越

15、的素質(zhì)，有效順利地協(xié)助了世同金屬的上線工作。從上線開始便有專業(yè)顧問負(fù)責(zé)整個導(dǎo)入實施的計劃，長期積累的行業(yè)知識及管理經(jīng)驗也提升了整個erp的運作水平，妥善處理了上線工作中的問題。用戶對項目分階段實施有強烈的認(rèn)同，在第一階段僅強調(diào)對基本功能的實現(xiàn)，而將大量的工作留到上線后或持續(xù)改進(jìn)過程中。而實際操作中，并非所有用戶對erp實施都有這種理解與認(rèn)同，因此，在項目進(jìn)度計劃時，一味在項目進(jìn)度計劃時求快，甚或是刻意追求某個具有特殊意義的日期作為項目里程碑，將對項目進(jìn)度控制造成很大壓力。事實上，很多項目的失敗，正是起因于項目進(jìn)度出現(xiàn)拖延，而導(dǎo)致項目團隊士氣低落，效率低下。因此，erp項目實施的時間管理，需要充

16、分考慮各種潛在因素，適當(dāng)留有余地；任務(wù)分解詳細(xì)度適中，便于考核；在執(zhí)行過程中，應(yīng)強調(diào)項目按進(jìn)度執(zhí)行的重要性，在考慮任何問題時，都要將保持進(jìn)度作為先決條件；同時，合理利用趕工及快速跟進(jìn)等方法，充分利用資源。3）項目人力資源的風(fēng)險人力資源是erp項目實施過程中最為關(guān)鍵的資源。保證合適的人，以足夠的精力參與到項目中來，是項目成功實施的基本保證。erp項目實施中存在各種角色，對各種角色應(yīng)具備的素質(zhì)，我們在此不再贅述。要降低項目的人力資源風(fēng)險，就要保證進(jìn)入到項目中并承擔(dān)角色的各類項目干系人滿足項目要求。因此，實施雙方應(yīng)對參與人員進(jìn)行認(rèn)真的評估，這種評估應(yīng)該是雙方面的，不僅是用戶對咨詢顧問的評估，也應(yīng)包括

17、咨詢公司對參與項目的用戶方成員（在國內(nèi)目前的環(huán)境下，主要是指關(guān)鍵用戶）的評估。同時，應(yīng)保證項目人員對項目的投入程度。應(yīng)將參與erp項目人員的業(yè)績評估與erp項目實施的狀況相關(guān)聯(lián)，明確erp項目是在該階段項目相關(guān)人員最重要的本職工作；制定適當(dāng)?shù)莫剳痛胧?；在企業(yè)中建立“一把手工程”的思想，層層“一把手”，即各級負(fù)責(zé)人針對erp實施向下行使全權(quán)、對上擔(dān)負(fù)全責(zé)，將一把手從個體概念延伸到有機結(jié)合的群體概念。4）對erp認(rèn)識不正確的風(fēng)險有的企業(yè)把erp視為企業(yè)管理的靈丹妙藥，認(rèn)為既然erp“功能強大”，只要上了erp，企業(yè)的所有問題便迎刃而解，或者以為企業(yè)的所有流程都可以納入到erp中來；還有的人簡單的將

18、erp視為當(dāng)前業(yè)務(wù)流程的電子化。要防范或減輕這種風(fēng)險，需要對用戶進(jìn)行大量的培訓(xùn)：erp的由來，erp的功能，實施erp的目的與期望等等，盡可能在用戶產(chǎn)生“erp不能滿足我的需求和期望”這種想法之前，讓用戶知道“現(xiàn)階段對erp合理的需求期望是什么”。2erp項目實施中的風(fēng)險監(jiān)控可以采取以下措施對erp項目實施中的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行監(jiān)控，以防止危及項目成敗的風(fēng)險發(fā)生。1)建立并及時更新項目風(fēng)險列表及風(fēng)險排序。項目管理人員應(yīng)隨時關(guān)注與關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險相關(guān)因素的變化情況，及時決定何時、采用何種風(fēng)險應(yīng)對措施。2）風(fēng)險應(yīng)對審計：隨時關(guān)注風(fēng)險應(yīng)對措施（規(guī)避、減輕、轉(zhuǎn)移）實施的效果，對殘余風(fēng)險進(jìn)行評估。3）建立報告機制，及時將

19、項目中存在的問題反映到項目經(jīng)理或項目管理層。4）定期召集項目干系人召開項目會議，對風(fēng)險狀況進(jìn)行評估，并通過各方面對項目實施的反應(yīng)來發(fā)現(xiàn)新風(fēng)險。5）更新相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)庫如風(fēng)險識別檢查表，以利于今后類似項目的實施。6）引入第三方咨詢，定期對項目進(jìn)行質(zhì)量檢查，以防范大的風(fēng)險。實施信息化，企業(yè)就要面對巨大風(fēng)險，有時甚至是將自己的生死交到了信息化手上。但如果不實施信息化，企業(yè)就要被同行所超越，進(jìn)而湮沒在全球化的浪潮中，這是每一家企業(yè)都不愿意看到的?？煽纯闯Ｒ姷馁Y料，都是教你如何去規(guī)避信息化風(fēng)險，而沒有人愿意直面風(fēng)險，這不能不說是信息化的缺失。如果我們的企業(yè)、廠商能夠更加開明些，丟掉那所謂的面子問題，將他們面對

20、風(fēng)險時的經(jīng)驗與大眾共享，相信信息化的失敗率絕對要比現(xiàn)在少得多。外文原稿discussing about the successful factors oferp projects implementation and the risk managementthe primary functions of enterprise resource planning (erp) are to integrate the inter-departmental operation procedures and management information system (mis) modules, an

21、d to reallocate the resources of a company. how to successfully implement an erp system in an organization is always a hot research topic for researchers as well as a pending problem for an organization that wants to implement it. a case study on the selection of system suppliers and contract negoti

22、ation during the erp implementation of a local construction company in taiwan, after reviewing the common key success factors discussed in the literature, discussed seven issues: coding system, working process reengineering, priority of erp functionality implementation, customization, participant ro

23、les, consultant role and performance level of subcontractor, which also affected the implementation. lessons learned from the case study in discussed seven issues are valuable for a construction company in deciding to implement an erp system. this study suggests that additional case studies are nece

24、ssary for the successful application of erp systems in the construction industry. erp implementation is a triple play that combines people, technology, and processes. it embodies a complex implementation process, especially in developing countries like china, often taking several years, huge amount

25、of fund and involving a major business process reengineering exercise. an attempt has been made to identify some chinese-specific difficulties in the implementation process and provide solutions to implement erp system successfully through questionnaire survey, interviews, and secondary data. on the

26、 basis of analysis of questionnaire results, some common difficulties have been explored by authors, such as support of top management, costly and time-consuming, cultural differences, technical complexity, lack of professional personnel, and inner resistance. the difficulties are largely due to the

27、 nature of enterprises ownership and size. suggested solutions to overcome these difficulties: erp software packages selection, erp implementation team, bpr, training, and outsourcing-application service provider. these solutions can effectively solve erp difficulties.the effectiveness of the implem

28、entation of enterprise resource planning in improving service quality can be seen in the taiwanese semiconductor industry by assessing the expectations and the perceptions of service quality from the perspectives of both upstream manufacturers and downstream customers. the study first establishes a

29、modified service quality gap model incorporating: (i) the downstream customers expectations and perceptions, and (ii) the upstream manufacturers perceptions of the customers expectations and perceptions. an empirical study by questionnaire survey is then undertaken to investigate the gaps proposed i

30、n the research model. the results show that service quality gaps do exist in the taiwanese semiconductor industry between upstream manufacturers that are implementing erp and their downstream customers. the study shows that the proposed model provides valuable guidance to manufacturers with respect

31、to the prevention, detection, and elimination of the demonstrated service quality gaps. the model thus helps manufacturers to evaluate the contribution of various erp modules to improved customer satisfaction with service quality and also provides guidance on improvement strategies to enhance servic

32、e quality by eliminating quality gaps.actually, erp is widely used in many fields, from public sectors to individual business. recently, service organizations have invested considerable resources in the implementation of enterprise resource planning (erp) systems, even using solutions initially targ

33、eted for manufacturing companies. to get an insight into how services approach help erp implementation, a review of erp projects, especially in services, completed by six case studies has been undertaken. we identify and discuss some characteristics of services, which are discriminatory regarding ma

34、nufacturing. main characteristics identified deal with complete or partial integration, product or customer orientation, importance of labor, human factor. in conclusion, trends to standardization and integration seen in the industrial sector are also growing in services, but in different ways. refe

35、rs to the overseas some literature material, a successful erp project, often needs to spend several year times, number thousands of us dollars can complete. again turns head looks at the home, along with erp skepticisms gaining ground, price war starting, erp took one kind of software suppliers prod

36、uct, has actually goes down the god world tendency. erp leader sap also promoted business the one product, the price has been lower than 100,000.even if the erp software can achieve free, or like the ibm esteem according to the boundary which must collect fees, implements the angle from the entire e

37、nterprise, considers the personnel, training, the maintenance, the service reorganization, the re-development, three, n development, its expense should also in several 1,000,000 and even surely the scale. this speaking of the domestic enterprise, already was not the small number. but, some many ente

38、rprises harbor the beautiful dream, steps the erp implementation the difficult travel. in which also has many projects to be defeated comes to an end. but regarding these final survivors, whether can the halberd be also put in storage, drinks wine to sing loudly? in fact, the enterprise implements t

39、he erp project after the success will face implements a bigger risk. in future five to ten years in, some solid erp risk management mechanism had decided whether the enterprise can obtain benefits truly in the initial erp investment. in 1998 thomas h.davenport has published named puts in enterprise

40、system the article in the harvard commerce commentary (putting the enterprise into the enterprise system).this article proposed systematically the enterprise system, or called the erp system the operation brings for the enterprise positive and negative directs the sound. simultaneously also directly

41、 proposed the future enterprise will have to face a risk: puts in the enterprise system the entire enterprise the risk. according to us project management association to the risk the definition, the risk is refers to the project advantageous or the disadvantageous element of certainty. the project i

42、s for completes the disposable endeavor which some unique product or the service station do, the project the distinctive quality had decided the project not impossible was by with the before identical way, simultaneously, the project which completed by and the before identical person must create the

43、 product or the service, as well as the project possibly involved the scope, the time and the cost all not impossible started when the project completely to determine, therefore, carried on in the process in the project also corresponding to be able to appear the massive uncertainty, namely project

44、risk. below this article mentioned the risk is refers to the project disadvantageously the element of certainty. exists to the project disadvantageous risk in any project, often and can give the project the advancement and the project success brings the negative influence. once the risk occurs, its

45、influence is various, like causes the project product/service the function to be unable to satisfy the customer the need, the project expense surpasses the budget, the project plan dragging or is compelled to cancel and so on, it finally manifests for customer degree of satisfaction depression. ther

46、efore, the recognition risk, the appraisal risk and take the measure to be supposed to be the risk management have the extremely vital significance to the risk to the project management. risk management concrete content the project risk management mainly divides into following several steps: the ris

47、k recognition, the qualitative/quota risk analysis, the risk should to plan the establishment and the risk monitoring. 1.risk recognitions the risk recognition, is refers distinguishes and records possibly has the adverse effect to the project the factor. because the project is in develops in unceas

48、ingly the change process, therefore the risk recognition also passes through in the entire project implementation entire process, but is not merely the project initial stage. the risk recognition is not the disposable work, but need more systems, crosswise thought. possesses nearly about the project

49、 plan and the information all possibly takes the risk recognition the basis, like project progress and cost plan, work decomposition structure, project organizational structure, project scope, similar project historical information and so on. needs to pay attention, all risks all may carry on the ma

50、nagement by no means through the risk recognition. the risk recognition only can discover the known risk (for example: in the known project organization some member ability cannot satisfy the request completely) or the known unknown risk (known-unknown, namely event name known, like customer side pe

51、rsonnel participates in dynamics being insufficient); before but certain risks, as a result of the project distinctive quality, not impossible to occur in it know in advance (unknown-unknown, namely unknown-unknown risk). 2.qualitative/quota risk analysis the latent risk quantity distinguishes which

52、 through the risk recognition process are very many, but these latent risks to the project the influence are various. the risk analysis namely through the analysis, the comparison, the appraisal and so on each way, to determined various risks the importance, sorts to the risk and appraises it to the

53、 project possible consequence, thus causes the project to implement the personnel to be possible to concentrate the main energy in the few in number main risk, thus enable the project the overall risk to be under the effective control. the risk analysis mainly may use the method includes: risk proba

54、bility/influence appraisal matrix, sensitive analysis, simulation and so on. when carries on the above analysis, mainly pays attention to following several risk factor: risk probability: namely the risk event occurs possible percentage expression. this numeral is, like the expert who obtains through

55、 the subjective judgment appraises, the interview or the basis before similar project historical information. risk influence: namely the risk has possibly the influence size which creates to the project. this kind of influence is possibly in the time, possibly is in the cost, also is possibly other

56、various aspects. risk value (required value emv): the risk value = risk probability * risk influence, is to the risk the influence most direct appraisal which creates to the project, its overall evaluation probability with has affected two aspects the factors. 3.risks should plan the establishment t

57、he risk should lie in to the plan goal through the formulation corresponding measure, comes to be supposed to the risk the threat which possibly creates to the project.most often uses should to threat several measures be: the circumvention, reduces, the shift, accepts. the circumvention, namely elim

58、inates this risk through the elimination risk origin; reduces, namely through takes the measure to reduce the risk probability or the risk influence, thus achieved reduces the risk value the result; the shift, soon the risk shifts to another side, like purchase insurance, sub package and so on; accepts, namely does not take the measure to this risk, accepts result which it cr