可口可樂公司財務報表分析

1、可口可樂公司 財務報表分析 王冠男 1 12021/8/2The Framework公司簡介 (Introduction)戰(zhàn)略分析 (Strategy Analysis)賬目分析 (Account Analysis)信用分析 (Credit Analysis)財務分析 (Financial Analysis)前景分析 (Prospective Analysis)2 22021/8/2Introduction可口可樂公司介紹可口可樂的誕生與發(fā)展可口可樂的市場現(xiàn)況根據(jù)一項20世紀的調查，全世界最流行的三個詞分別是：上帝、她、可口可樂3 32021/8/2Coca-Colas Products4 4

2、2021/8/2銷售收入 (Sales)0500010000150002000025000300003500040000FY2006FY2007FY2008FY2009FY2010銷售收入5 52021/8/2第四回合第三回合第二回合第一回合 股市表現(xiàn)旗鼓相當 各選擇麥當勞與肯德基作為戰(zhàn)略合 作伙伴 百事與可口可樂的廣告大戰(zhàn) 百事根本不是可口可樂的對手 With Its Competitor-PepsiCo6 62021/8/2市場份額 (Market Share)7 72021/8/2軟飲料制造業(yè) (Soft Drink Industry)酒精含量低于0.5( 質量比)的天然的或人工配制的飲

3、料，又稱清涼飲料、無醇飲料溶解香精、香料、色素等溶劑或乳酸飲料生產(chǎn)過程的副產(chǎn)物8 82021/8/2波特五力模型Porters Five Forces Model9 92021/8/2行業(yè)分析 (Industrial Analysis)行業(yè)利潤率潛在競爭者進入的能力 (Threat of new entrants)行業(yè)內競爭者現(xiàn)在的競爭能力 (Rivalry among existing firms)替代品的替代能力 (Threat of substitute products)供應商的議價能力(Bargaining power of suppliers)購買者的議價能力 (Bargainin

4、g power of buyers)10102021/8/2態(tài)勢分析法 SWOT SWOT AnalysisAnalysis11 112021/8/2StrengthsWeaknessesThreatsOpportunities匯率風險水質和水量消費者喜好正在改變行業(yè)領先地位健全的銷售網(wǎng)絡造成肥胖不利健康產(chǎn)品召回事件(12/2009)積極進軍發(fā)展中的市場收購北美CCE著重銷量和價格的結合12122021/8/2賬目分析 - - Beneish ModelRatioMeaning201020092008DSRIIndicate revenue inflation.1.04021.25360.84

5、15GMIAssess the gross margin sustainability.1.00571.00270.9937AQIImply capitalization of cost1.34990.87490.8905SGISuggest the companys growth character.1.13320.97011.1070DEPIShow the possibility of change of depreciation rate.1.21441.00410.9835SGAIHint the abnormal deferred cost.1.05680.99231.0007LV

6、GIEvaluate the change of risk.1.15680.99151.0204TATAPositively related to the likelihood of manipulation.-0.0237-0.2039-0.035413132021/8/2M-Score201020092008M-Score-2.3271-3.2719-2.7523Normsdist(M)1.00%0.05%0.30%M =-4.840 + 0.920 x DSRI + 0.528 x GMI + 0.404 x AQI + 0.892 x SGI + 0.115 x DEPI - 0.17

7、2 x SAI - 0.327 x LVGI + 4.679 x TATA14142021/8/2信用分析 - - Altman Z-score ModelCoefficientRatios (KO)Score (KO)Ratios (PEP)Score (PEP)(X1) NWC/assets1.20.0420.0510.0250.030(X2) Retained earnings/Total assets1.40.2750.3850.2430.340(X3) EBIT/Total assets3.30.1160.3820.1430.473(X4) MV of equity/BV of to

8、tal liability0.63.5972.1582.1801.308(X5)Sales/Total assets10.4820.4820.8490.849Z-Score3.4583.000Z= 1.2 (X1) + 1.4 (X2) + 3.3 (X3) + 0.6 (X4) + 1.0 (X5)15152021/8/2財務分析的兩個工具(Financial Analysis) 比率分析比率分析 (Ratio Analysis) 現(xiàn)金現(xiàn)金流分析流分析 (Cash Flow Analysis)主要分主要分析損益表析損益表 (income statement) 與資產(chǎn)負債表與資產(chǎn)負債表 (Ba

9、lance Sheet)主主要分析現(xiàn)金流量表要分析現(xiàn)金流量表 (Cash Flow Statement)凈利潤率ROE資產(chǎn)周轉率杠桿效應可持續(xù)增長率16162021/8/2分解ROE ROE decompositionKOKOKOPEPPEPPEP Year201020092008201020092008Net Profit Margin (ROS) (%)33.6322.0218.1810.9313.7511.89* Asset turnover0.580.690.761.071.141.22= Return on assets (ROA) (%)19.4315.3013.8611.7015

10、.6814.56* Financial leverage2.181.971.982.852.632.41= Return on equity (%)42.3330.1527.5133.3641.2535.1517 172021/8/2ROE 第一個驅動因素凈利潤率 (Net Profit Margin)Profitability RatiosKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008Gross profit margin (%)63.86 64.22 64.39 54.74 53.51 52.95 EBITDA margin (%)28.17 30.

11、55 30.28 20.92 22.39 19.60 NOPAT margin (%)24.06 26.56 26.44 16.90 18.61 16.03 Net profit margin (%)33.63 22.02 18.18 10.93 13.75 11.89 18182021/8/2ROE 第二個驅動因素資產(chǎn)周轉率(Asset Turnover)Assets Management RatiosKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008Operating WC/Sales0.12 0.12 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 Net n

12、on-current assets/Sales0.42 0.31 0.26 0.33 0.29 0.27 Operating WC turnover8.36 8.00 25.15 82.27 86.29 92.22 Net non-current assets turnover2.89 3.47 3.80 3.65 3.55 3.78 Trade Receivables turnover8.58 9.05 9.97 10.57 9.29 9.54 Days receivables42.55 40.33 36.70 34.45 39.18 38.17 Inventories turnover5.

13、07 4.88 5.16 8.74 7.82 8.46 Days inventories71.95 74.74 70.91 41.64 46.54 43.03 Trade payables turnover1.67 1.75 1.73 2.83 2.46 2.59 Days payables218.01 208.56 211.71 128.73 147.80 140.37 Asset turnover0.580.690.761.071.141.2219192021/8/2ROE 第三個驅動因素杠桿效應(Financial Leverage)Liquidity ratiosKOKOKOPEPPE

14、PPEPYear201020092008201020092008Current ratio1.17 1.28 0.94 1.11 1.44 1.23 Quick ratio0.85 0.95 0.62 0.80 1.00 0.79 Cash ratio0.61 0.67 0.38 0.40 0.47 0.26 Operating cash flow ratio0.52 0.60 0.58 0.53 0.78 0.80 Financial leverage2.181.971.982.852.632.4120202021/8/2ROE 第三個驅動因素杠桿效應(Financial Leverage)

15、Debt and coverage ratiosKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008Liabilities-to-equity1.330.920.942.171.281.97Debt-to-equity (%)74.7746.7944.65115.9345.0967.96Net debt-to-equity (%)38.5710.4420.7886.2721.3849.15Debt-to-capital (%)42.7831.8730.8753.6931.0840.46Net debt-to-net capital (%)23.708.7816

16、.5435.9216.3124.53Interest coverage (earning based)20.3625.9717.9810.1021.2722.34Interest coverage (cash flow based)17.2629.8122.0112.4523.4127.9821212021/8/2可持續(xù)增長率(Sustainable Growth Rate)Sustainable growth rateKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008ROE (%)42.3330.1527.5133.3641.2535.15Dividend

17、 payout ratio (%)34.4055.6160.6347.9146.5550.35Sustainable growth rate (%)27.7713.3810.8317.3822.0517.4522222021/8/2現(xiàn)金流分析(Cash Flow Analysis)Cash flow analysisKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008Cash From Operations953281867571844867966999Cash From Investing Activities-4405 -4149-2363 -7668-2

18、401-2667Cash from Financing Activities-3631 -1717-46001220-2516-3178Net Changes in Cash14962320608200018791154Opening Cash & Cash Equivalents70214701409339432064910Total Cash Flow85177021470159433943206423232021/8/2Common size Income Statement200820092010 averageRevenuesales100.00% 100.00% 100.0

19、0% 100.00%Cost & Expensecost of sales35.61%35.78%36.14%35.84%general & administration expense34.85%34.42%36.42%35.23%Research & Development0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%Depreciation3.11%3.24%3.38%3.24%Operating Income26.44%26.56%24.06%25.69%InterestInterest expense1.37%1.15%2.09%1.53%Foreign Excha

20、nge Losses (Gains)0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)1.78%-3.45%-18.59%-6.75%Income before tax23.29%28.87%40.56%30.90%Income tax5.11%6.58%6.79%6.16%Net income18.18%22.28%33.77%24.74%common share7.24%7.43%6.53%7.07%Earnings per share0.01%0.01%0.01%0.01%Dividends paid11.02%12.26%11.58

21、%11.62%Retained earnings7.16%10.02%22.18%13.12%24242021/8/2Common Size Balance Sheet200820092010 Averagecash & cash equivalents15.59%29.73%32.28%25.87%account receivable9.67%12.13%12.61%11.47%inventories6.85%7.60%7.55%7.33%total current assets38.12%56.63%61.45%52.07%fixed assetsnet fixed assets2

22、5.78%30.85%41.93%32.86%Good will12.61%13.63%33.22%19.82%intangible assets22.82%23.35%27.31%24.49%other assets61.21%67.83%102.46%77.17%total long-term assets88.73%100.42%146.19%111.78%total assets126.84%157.05%207.64%163.85%accounts payable19.42%21.48%25.23%22.04%current debt20.45%21.94%26.70%23.03%t

23、otal current liabilities40.66%44.28%52.70%45.88%long-term debt8.71%16.32%39.98%21.67%other long-term liabilities12.19%14.67%25.78%17.55%total long-term liabilities20.90%30.99%65.76%39.22%total liabilities61.56%75.27%118.47%85.10%common stock &additional paid in capital27.69%30.39%31.14%29.74%ret

24、ained earnings36.39%49.64%57.14%47.72%total shareholders equity65.29%81.79%89.17%78.75%total liabilities & shareholders equity126.84%157.05%207.64%163.85%25252021/8/2共同比財務報表分析對CCE 的兼并 為$12.3b ($3.4b in equity & $8.8b in debt)可口可樂通過增加留存收益來減小公司杠桿，償還收購所產(chǎn)生的長期債務收購所產(chǎn)生的溢價被記錄在商譽中導致公司長期資產(chǎn)的增長非經(jīng)營收入=兼并所

25、帶來的債權收入+公司將挪威和瑞典的包裝生產(chǎn)基地銷售給CCE所得收入($0.8b)可口可樂公司通過增長長期債務的方式募集資金收購26262021/8/2公司經(jīng)營財務預測假設AssumptionsClick to add Title每年的年銷售額增長率保持過去5年的均值公司會調整其資本結構到收購前水平假設報表中的數(shù)據(jù)都與年銷售額有較穩(wěn)定的關系公司在預測年限內穩(wěn)定持續(xù)經(jīng)營預測的數(shù)據(jù)均根據(jù)與銷售額比值的平均水平27272021/8/2Forecasted Income Statement201120122013Revenuesales38704.03542655.03947009.371Cost &a

26、mp; Expensecost of sales13872.5815288.72816849.439G&A Expense13634.02415025.81916559.692Research & Development000Depreciation1255.85961384.06091525.3492Operating Income9941.570310956.43112074.89InterestInterest expense593.9611654.59412721.41672FX Losses (Gains)000Net Non-Operating Losses (Ga

27、ins)-2613.408-2880.191-3174.208Income before tax11961.01713182.02814527.682Income tax2384.1762627.55862895.7863Net income9576.841410554.46911631.896common share2734.50163013.64633321.2868EPS4.16353464.58855855.05697Dividends paid4498.4294957.63985463.728Retained earnings5078.41245596.82936168.167628

28、282021/8/2Forecasted Results05000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000200820092010201120122013RevenueNet incomeRetained earnings29292021/8/2Forecasted Balance Sheet201120122013cash & cash equivalents10011.09111033.04812159.329account receivable4439.85924893.0915392.5899inventories2836.76

29、423126.34813445.4935total current assets20151.44622208.55624475.66fixed assetsnet fixed assets12716.73614014.89215445.567Good will7670.95128454.02099317.0284intangible assets9479.956610447.69411514.221other assets29867.64432916.60736276.816total long-term assets43263.547679.94552547.233total assets6

30、3414.94669888.50177022.893accounts payable8531.84039402.791810362.652current debt8912.96069822.817810825.555total current liabilities17756.77219569.42721567.123long-term debt8387.38219243.586910187.195other long-term liabilities6791.65487484.96388249.0475total long-term liabilities15179.03716728.55118436.243total liabilities32935.80836297.97840003.365common stock &additional paid in capital11510.85312685.9113980.919retained earnings18470.52920356.