中國(guó)崛起對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響

1、The Influence of Chinas Emerging on the World Economy中國(guó)已經(jīng)成為世界第二大出口國(guó)和第三大進(jìn)口國(guó)。最近，中國(guó)又成為全世界的工業(yè)原料（礦產(chǎn)和金屬）進(jìn)口大國(guó)和第三大石油進(jìn)口國(guó)。然而，在農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貿(mào)易領(lǐng)域，中國(guó)能發(fā)揮的作用遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有人們想像的那么重要，迄今為止，中國(guó)人糧食消費(fèi)的增長(zhǎng)主要靠國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)來(lái)滿足。當(dāng)然，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，這種相對(duì)的自給自足還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)得不到保障，但是就目前而言，國(guó)際市場(chǎng)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格大幅上漲并不是中國(guó)進(jìn)口造成的。China has become the world's second largest exporter and the third

2、 biggest importer. Recently, China has become the world's industrial raw materials (mineral and metal) importing countries and the third largest oil importer. However, in agricultural trade fields, China can play the role of far less important than most people think, so far, Chinese grain consum

3、ption growth mainly through domestic production to meet. Of course, in the long run, this relatively self-sufficient still far not guaranteed, but so far, the international market prices rising considerably is not caused by the Chinese imports.美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)減速跡象，使人認(rèn)為以中國(guó)為首的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體可能會(huì)接過(guò)富裕國(guó)家的接力棒，成為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)。200

4、7年，中國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值已經(jīng)占到全世界的5.4%，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率高達(dá)11.4%，對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)已經(jīng)超過(guò)美國(guó).Sign of a slowdown appears in the U.S. economy, making people think that emerging economies headed by China may receive the relay baton from rich countries and become a world economic engine. In 2007, China's GDP has accounted for 5.4% of wo

5、rld economic growth rate, as high as 11.4%.The contribution to world economic growth has already surpassed that of the United States.但是，對(duì)于世界經(jīng)濟(jì)不同區(qū)域之間能否“脫鉤”的問(wèn)題，答案應(yīng)該有所不同。因?yàn)橹袊?guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)近些年巳經(jīng)變得更加依賴國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境。2005年以來(lái)，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)大約有四分之一來(lái)自于貿(mào)易順差。專家們認(rèn)為，受美國(guó)需求下降的拖累，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度可能會(huì)從2007年的11.4%下降到2008年9.5%或10%。But, the answer sh

6、ould be different for the "decoupling" problem among different world economic regions, because China's economic growth in recent years have become more dependent on international economic environment. Since 2005, about a quarter of China's economic growth have come from the trade s

7、urplus. Experts think that with the burden from U.S.s demand, the speed of China's economic growth might decline from 11.4% in 2007 to 9.5% or 10% in 2008.因此，國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的惡化會(huì)影響到中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)，但中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)仍將保持快速增長(zhǎng)，因?yàn)樗凶约旱膬?nèi)在動(dòng)力。可是它能因此拉動(dòng)世界其他地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)嗎？從短期來(lái)看，答案是否定的。中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)美國(guó)和歐洲的拉動(dòng)作用很小，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)對(duì)歐美來(lái)說(shuō)仍然是一個(gè)次要的市場(chǎng)。Therefore, the deteriora

8、tion of the international economic situation will affect China's economy, but China's economy will still maintain a rapid growth, because it has its own inner motivation. But can China pull in other parts economy by it? In the short term, the answer is no. China's economy has little pull

9、ing-in effect on the economy of the United States and Europe, because China is still a secondary market for them.當(dāng)然。中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活力通過(guò)提高生產(chǎn)率正在拉動(dòng)亞洲其他地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)。中國(guó)進(jìn)口的三分之二來(lái)自亞洲國(guó)家，它們向中國(guó)提供了世界工廠所需要的零件、中間產(chǎn)品、原料和設(shè)備?？墒沁€不能肯定亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)能不受美國(guó)的影響，亞洲很大一部分出曰一直依賴美國(guó)。亞洲與美國(guó)不可能順利“脫鉤”，美國(guó)市場(chǎng)對(duì)亞洲來(lái)說(shuō)仍然非常重要。Of course. China's economic vitality is

10、 pulling in other parts of Asia by increasing its productivity. Two-thirds of Chinese imports come from Asian countries, they provide China with parts, intermediate products, raw materials and equipment the world factory needs. But its still not sure that Asian economies can be uneffected by America

11、's influence, A big part of Asias export has been always dependant on the United States. Asia and America could not "decoupling" smoothly, the American market is still very important to Asia.亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)要想“獨(dú)立”、甚至能夠?qū)κ澜缙渌貐^(qū)產(chǎn)生拉動(dòng)作用，就必須主要依靠?jī)?nèi)需而不是出口。重新恢復(fù)這種平衡對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)講尤其必要。If Asian economies want to be "independent",