Ford戰(zhàn)略分析報(bào)告

1、Presentation to the Automotive News World Congress Stephen J. GirskyJanuary 2004DisclosuresAnalyst CertificationAnalyst CertificationThe following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have no

2、t received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Stephen J. Girsky.Important US Regulartory Disclosures on Subject CompaniesThe information and opinions in this report were prepared by Morgan Stanley & Co

3、. Incorporated (“Morgan Stanley”).As of November 28, 2003, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in this report: Delphi, General Motors, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Johnson Controls, Magna Intl Inc., TBC and Tower Autom

4、otive.Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of DaimlerChrysler AG, Delphi, Ford, General Motors, Standard Motor Products and Tenneco.Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley or an affiliate has received compensation for inves

5、tment banking services from Aftermarket Technology, American Axle and Mfg., BorgWarner Inc., DaimlerChrysler AG, Delphi, Ford, General Motors, Standard Motor Products, Superior Industries, Tenneco, Tower Automotive and Visteon Corporation.In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or in

6、tends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Aftermarket Technology, American Axle and Mfg., ArvinMeritor, AutoNation, Borg Warner Inc., DaimlerChrysler AG, Dana Corp., Delphi, Ford, General Motors, Genuine Parts Co., Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Johnson Controls, Lear Corp., Lithi

7、a Motors, Magna Intl Inc., Standard Motor Products, Superior Industries, Tenneco, Tower Automotive, United Auto Group and Visteon Corporation.The research analysts, strategist, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of the research report have received compensation based

8、upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and investment banking revenues.Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated makes a market in the securities of Aftermarket Technology, Delphi, Dura Automotive, Ford, General Mo

9、tors, Magna Intl., TBC and Tower Automotive.Global Stock Ratings Distribution(as of December 31, 2003)(Continued) Coverage Universe Investment Banking Client (IBC)Stock Rating CategoryCount% of totalCount% of total IBC% of Rating CategoryOverweight592322413841Equal-Weight856462874634Underweight40222

10、9816Total1,850 626DisclosuresData include common stock and ADRs currently assigned ratings. For disclosure purposes (in accordance with NASD and NYSE requirements), we note that Overweight, our most positive stock rating, most closely corresponds to a buy recommendation; Equal-weight and Underweight

11、 most closely correspond to neutral and sell recommendations, respectively. However, Overweight, Equal-weight, and Underweight are not the equivalent of buy, neutral, and sell but represent recommended relative weightings (see definitions below). An investors decision to buy or sell a stock should d

12、epend on individual circumstances (such as the investors existing holdings) and other considerations. Investment Banking Clients are companies from whom Morgan Stanley or an affiliate received investment banking compensation in the last 12 months. Analyst Stock RatingsOverweight (O or Over) - The st

13、ocks total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analysts industry (or industry teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis over the next 12-18 months.Equal-weight (E or Equal) - The stocks total return is expected to be in line with the average total return of the anal

14、ysts industry (or industry teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis over the next 12-18 months.Underweight (U or Under) - The stocks total return is expected to be below the average total return of the analysts industry (or industry teams) coverage universe, on a risk-adjusted basis, over

15、the next 12-18 months.More volatile (V) - We estimate that this stock has more than a 25% chance of a price move (up or down) of more than 25% in a month, based on a quantitative assessment of historical data, or in the analysts view, it is likely to become materially more volatile over the next 1-1

16、2 months compared with the past three years.Stocks with less than one year of trading history are automatically rated as more volatile (unless otherwise noted). We note that securities that we do not currently consider more volatile can still perform in that manner.Unless otherwise specified, the ti

17、me frame for price targets included in this report is 12 to 18 months. Ratings prior to March 18, 2002: SB=Strong Buy; OP=Outperform; N=Neutral; UP=Underperform. For definitions, please go to Industry ViewsAttractive (A). The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe t

18、o be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months.In-Line (I). The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months.Cautious (C). The analyst views the performan

19、ce of his or her industry coverage universe with caution vs. the relevent broad market benchmark over the next 12-18 months.Other Important DisclosuresFor a discussion, if applicable, of the valuation methods used to determine the price targets included in this summary and the risks related to achie

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35、ended securities is available on request.OverviewAuto Outlook: Same problems; Less of themGlobal Dilemma: Most participants spending for growth yet the industry does not grow.Demand growth is likely to be modest despite economic recovery.Competitive pressures are likely to remain difficult.Weaker do

36、llar could level provide some offset.Higher rates create risk of weaker demand, weaker mix and lower finance company earnings.Big Three opportunity: Actual quality is better than perceived quality.Global Light Vehicle Sales: Slow GrowthCAGR 1.2%Source: LMCJ.D. Power & Morgan Stanley ResearchGlob

37、al Sales Forecasts: 2003 - 2004Source: Global Insight & Morgan Stanley Research* Note forecasts are derived from Global Insight(in MM units)2003E2004E% ChngNorth America16.716.80.6%Western Europe%Japan%Korea *%South America%India *0.80.913.5%China1.92.425.0%

38、Global Light Vehicle Sales ForecastU.S. Sales16.7mm UnitsFY03E16.8mm UnitsFY04ESource: Autodata & Morgan Stanley ResearchJapanese SAAR5.6mm UnitsFY03E5.7mm UnitsFY04ESource: Morgan Stanley ResearchWestern European SAAR14.1mmFY03E14.2mmFY04ESource: Morgan Stanley ResearchGlobal Excess Capacity at

39、 25%-30%or 20mm unitsSource: Autofacts & Morgan Stanley ResearchCapEx / D&A FY2003E: OEMs Spending for GrowthSource: Company data & Morgan Stanley Research*Adjusted to fit scale0%50%100%150%200%250%KiaHyundaiNissanBMWMazdaHondaMitsubishiRenaultFordVWDCXPSAFIATToyotaGMZero Sum GameGlobal

40、Dilemma: Most participants are spending for growth, yet the industry does not grow.Slow growth & excess capacity suggest deflation / revenue pressures are likely to continue.Not everybody can be a winner.Winners will be low cost producers who deliver a good product that consumers are willing to

41、pay for.Modest Demand GrowthDemand growth is likely to be modest despite economic recovery:Auto sales did not weaken materially in the most recent recession and thus, significant pent-up demand was never created.The number of off-lease vehicles is falling sharply fewer consumers are being forced bac

42、k to a dealer to buy or lease a new vehicle.Extended financing terms are likely to prolong vehicle turnover.Economic conditions appear mixed.Light Vehicle Sales Trend Line DemandSource: Morgan Stanley ResearchVehicle Sales1986-2004Ey = 163.56x + 13712R2 = 0.405912,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018

43、,0001986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004E(in 000 units)TroughPeak20022003Trendline Growth 1.0%2004ELight Vehicle Sales Cycle: Trough to TroughSource: R.L. Polk, Global Insight & Morgan Stanley ResearchDurationMagnitudeStandardStd. Dev.Cycle(yrs)(units)HighLowMean Deviationas % of Me

44、an1961-1966655,097 10,8856,8729,1831,54716.8%1967-1969331,767 11,35210,14710,5896646.3%1970-1974561,563 14,20110,52912,3131,42511.6%1975-1981790,150 14,96610,71012,8791,66012.9%1982-199110139,134 15,79610,32613,9131,96014.1%1992-2004E13203,398 18,08912,79415,6461,59810.2%Weighted Median Age of a Veh

45、icle vs. Sales1 Year Lead Correlation 77.6%Source: Polk & Morgan Stanley ResearchOff Lease Vehicles Begin to DeclineSource: Manheim & Morgan Stanley ResearchFewer Consumers Being Forced Back to the Dealerships2,8903,2753,4523,3032,7652,3832,0002,4002,8003,2003,6002000200120022003200420053851

46、77(149)(538)(382)Average Maturity of Vehicle Loans (months)Source: Federal Reserve Board & Morgan Stanley Research30.0040.0050.0060.0070.00Jun-71Jun-74Jun-77Jun-80Jun-83Jun-86Jun-89Jun-92Jun-95Jun-98Jun-01Taking Longer to Establish Consumer EquitySource: FRB & Morgan Stanley Research($10,000

47、)($5,000)$0$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000048121620242832364044485256Payment MonthsEquity Value1.9% 72 mnths - domestic0.0% 60 mnths - domestic0.0% 36 mnths- domesticPos. Equity in 44 mnthsPos. Equity in 33 mnthsPos. Equity in 16 mnthsEconomic Conditions Better than they were, but still no

48、t robustSource: CPI & Morgan Stanley ResearchPeakTroughNowJan-02Oct-02Nov-03Interest RatesConsumer ConfidenceGasoline PricesUsed Car PricesEmploymentAffordability Near 25 Year BestNumber of Weeks of Income to Purchase a VehicleSource: FRB & Morgan Stanley ResearchIntense CompetitionCompetiti

49、ve pressures are likely to remain difficult:Capacity growth to continue in 2004.Pricing is likely to remain difficult although a weak dollar may provide a modest offset.Market share pressures to continue as well.NA Capacity Additions, Despite Flat Sls OutlookSource: Company data & Morgan Stanley

50、 Research20052003FordNissan(122)2503082004FordGM(211)(98)80= 100,000 unitsGMFordHondaNissanToyota125(146)18020030Net Increase Of 853,000 Units or Roughly 5.1% of NA sales2006Toyota150389180ToyotaDCXHyundai 2356Excess Capacity & More Is On The WayEvery 1% Pt. of Market Share Translates into $1.0b

51、n in Profits853,000 Units of Added Capacity is 5.1% of NA Capacity,or $5bn in Pretax ProfitsNA Pretax ProfitBig ThreeFY03E (in MM)$1,971Source: Morgan Stanley Research EstimatesRevenue Pressures Worst Since 1970sNew Car CPI vs. Domestic Light Vehicle SalesSource: CPI & Morgan Stanley ResearchY/Y

52、 Change in Monthly New Car CPISource: CPI & Morgan Stanley Research-2.5%-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03Price Reductions Pressure ManufacturersEvery 1% Decline in Prices is Worth-$1.0bn at GM-$850mm at Ford-$550mm at

53、DCXSource: Morgan Stanley ResearchBig Three Market Share Continues to Slide76.0%60.2%61.7%Every 1% Point of Share is Worth Roughly $1bn in ProfitSource: Autodata & Morgan Stanley ResearchMarket Share Winners / Losers FY03Source: Autodata & Morgan Stanley ResearchFY03Gainers% Pts of ShrLosers

54、 % Pts of ShrToyota0.8%Ford-0.7%Honda0.7%Mitsubishi-0.5%Nissan0.4%General Motors-0.4%Hyundai0.2%Chrysler-0.3%Volvo0.2%Volkswagen-0.2%Big Three Share of Sales by Segment: FY-03 vs. FY-02Source: Autodata & Morgan Stanley Research-5.0%-4.5%-2.6%-1.9%-1.0%5.0%7.9%-8.0%-4.0%0.0%4.0%8.0%MinivanSport W

55、 agonLuxury CarMiddle SUVSmall PickupSmall SUVLuxury SUVUS Dollar per Euro: Jan 03 - PresentSource: FactSet & Morgan Stanley Research$1.00$1.05$1.10$1.15$1.20$1.25$1.301/1/20032/1/20033/1/20034/1/20035/1/20036/1/20037/1/20038/1/20039/1/200310/1/200311/1/200312/1/20031/1/2004U.S. Dollar per EuroJ

56、apanese Yen vs. U.S. DollarSource: FactSet & Morgan Stanley Research100110120130 Jan-99 Nov-99 Sep-00Jul-01May-02Mar-03 Strength at 102 per US$ Weakness at 134 per US$ Strength at 109 per US$Yen to US Dollar Price Sensitivity: YTD 03Source: Company Data & Morgan Stanley ResearchNote: * Inclu

57、des Acura, Infiniti, Lexus YTD -03Imp %Dom % OEM*ImportDomesticOEM Totalof Totalof TotalToyota629,547 935,619 1,565,166 40%60%Honda271,004 880,637 1,151,641 24%76%Nissan235,201 428,380 663,581 35%65%YTD -03Import Domestic Weighted AvgBased on Every 1 OEM* Content Content Content20000Move EqualsToyot

58、a100%24%55%$10,914$93Honda100%3%26%$5,165$44Nissan100%20%48%$9,671$82Weaker Dollar Could Help a LittleSource: Morgan Stanley ResearchCorrelations Yen / $ vs. CPI New CarTime FrameCorrelationJan-81 through May-95-91.1%Jun-95 through Oct-032.8%Global Operating Margins FY02 Source: Company data & M

59、organ Stanley Research*Morgan Stanley EstimatesExcluding Pension & OPEB Expense for the Big ThreePorscheNissanBMWHondaToyotaHyundaiGMPeugeotKiaVWDCXRenaultFordFiat16.4%10.6% 8.9% 8.4% 8.1% 6.1% 5.7% 5.0% 4.7% 4.0% 3.8% 1.7% 1.8% -6.2%Higher Rates Could be a NegativeHigher rates create risk of we

60、aker demand, weaker mix and lower finance company earningsExtended terms suggest longer replacement rates.Every 1% increase in financing rates on 5-year loans is worth $730-750 per vehicle.Auto Finance Terms: Fall 2001 vs. NowSource: FRB & Morgan Stanley ResearchMonthlyAvg AmtMonthlyLoan to Impl PriceAPRMaturity Financed PaymentValueof VehicleAug-016.41%57.68 22,591$ ($456)91.26%24,754$ Sep-015.42%57.20 23,049$ ($458)92.07%25,034$ Aug-