美國IT供應鏈和構成

1、November 27, 2011Americas: IT Supply Chain & ComponentsEquity ResearchEstimates are being properly reset, risk/reward coming into balanceStreet estimates have been coming down and our estimates arenow only slightly belowOur EPS estimates for CY12 are 2% below the Street, compared to 8%below in e

2、arly October. Following this reduction in Street estimates, wefeel incrementally better about expectations today. More so, our coverageuniverse has traded down 11% since 11/15300 bp worse than the declinein the S&P 500which combined with the reset in estimates presents amore balanced risk/reward

3、 compared to recent months. In addition, ourchecks point to a moderation in the pace of order reductions relative to theperiod in late August and September, as OEMs and EMS companies havequickly aligned build rates with slower growth expectations. That said, Q4is back-end loaded and weakening demand

4、 trends still tilt the bias towardthe downside, keeping us Neutral on our coverage group. RELATED RESEARCH Oct 10, 2011: Preview: cutting estimates across the group, but positive on MSI Aug 18, 2011: A look at prior downward estimate revision cycles for our universe Aug 7, 2011: Coverage view down t

5、o Neutral on lower estimates; ARW to Neutral 6.0%4.0%3.3%2.5%2.0%1.6%4.0%0.0%Coverage Universe-2.0%-2.0%JBLMSIIn contrast to most of our universe, our estimates for MSI and JBLare above the StreetWe remain comfortable with our above-consensus estimates for MotorolaSolutions and Jabil, driven by comp

6、any specific factors. Specifically, weestimate 13% yoy EPS growth for MSI in CY12, driven by ongoing operatingmargin expansion (+110 bp to 17.7%) and a 7% reduction in share count. ForJabil, we estimate 15% yoy EPS growth, led by 9% revenue growth (20% inDMS) and operating margin expansion (+15 bp t

7、o 4.45%). -4.0%-6.0%-8.0%-8.0%-10.0%OCT 10th NOV 27ndSource: Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Factset Fears of a slowdown in Europe have proved warrantedTech demand in Europe is likely to deteriorate further heading into 2012,with the biggest incremental risk in northern Europe. Our discussions wit

8、hdistributors reveal ongoing weakness in consumer electronics andincreased trepidation around the SMB market in Europe. Tech Datacommented on its earnings call last week that revenue in many countries insouthern Europe was down double-digits yoy in the October quarter,buffered in part by double-digi

9、t growth in the UK and Germany. However,while weakness in southern Europe is well known, we think the risk for thetech supply chain is a deterioration in northern Europe. Within ourcoverage universe, distributors have the most exposure to Europe, led byTech Data at 60% sales, followed by Arrow, Avne

10、t, and Ingram Micro ataround 30% each. In components distribution, our checks point to anongoing reduction in inventory, likely lasting into the first part of Q112.Craig Hettenbach (212) 902-9959 craig.hettenbach Goldman, Sachs & Co.Global Investment ResearchThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.November

11、 27, 2011Americas: IT Supply Chain & ComponentsStreet estimates have been reset lower and we are now only slightly belowStreet estimates were revised lower through recent Q311 earnings season. As a result, ourCY12 EPS estimates are now only 2% below the Street, compared to 8% below in earlyOctob

12、er (Exhibit 1). Our CY12 revenue estimates relative to the Street are highlighted inExhibit 2.Despite the recent narrowing in estimate across most of the group, our estimates remainwell below for Tech Data, driven by lower top line growth and margin assumptions due todeteriorating trends in Europe (

13、60% of TECDs sales).Conversely, we are slightly above the Street in Motorola Solutions and Jabil and weremain comfortable with these estimates as a result of company-specific factors. ForMotorola Solutions, we expect ongoing margin expansion in 2012, led by opex cutsassociated with the separation of

14、 the handset business and measured spending on SG&Aand R&D to drive operating leverage. Furthermore, we have modeled a 7% reduction inshare count in 2012, which could prove conservative as MSI executes on its $2bn buyback.A weaker macro environment is likely to mute growth in some of Jabils

15、core businesses,although new program ramps in diversified manufacturing services (40% of sales and over50% of profits) should drive high single digit revenue growth next year. At the same time,growth in DMS (operating margin of 6.5% or 2X the remaining business) bodes well forcontinued margin expans

16、ion and we also expect an improvement in profitability in thecompanys Enterprise and Infrastructure business (32% of sales).Exhibit 1: A reduction in Street estimates through earnings season has led to a narrowing of the gap relative to our estimates% Difference - GS vs. Street (CY2012 EPS) 10.0%Dis

17、tributors EMSComponents5.0%0.0%ARWAVTIMSNXTECDAPHMOLXSTTELJBLFLEXPLXSSANMMSI-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%EPS-20.0%Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. OCT 10th NOV 27ndGoldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2November 27, 2011Americas: IT Supply Chain & ComponentsExhibit 2: Our estimates for revenue a

18、re modestly below the Street% Difference - GS vs. Street (CY2012 Revenue) 10.0%Distributors EMSComponents5.0%0.0%ARWAVTIMSNXTECDAPHMOLXSTTELJBLFLEXPLXSSANMMSI-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%Revenue-20.0%Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. OCT 10th NOV 27ndStocks in our coverage universe have sold off aggress

19、ively since mid November, bringing risk/reward back into better balanceFollowing the steep sell-off across the group and resetting of estimates, risk/reward isbeginning to look more interesting. However, weakening demand trends still presentdownside risks to estimates and keep our coverage view at N

20、eutral for now.Our coverage universe has traded off by 11% since November 15, compared to the 7.9%decline in the S&P 500 (Exhibit 3). Most notably, the high-beta EMS group has declinedalmost 2X the S&P, including a 19% drop in Neutral-rated SANM and 13% decline in Buy-rated JBL. Neutral-rate

21、d PLXS has held in better during the sell-off, although it hasunderperformed YTD (down 23% vs. the S&P off 8%). Buy-rated MSI has outperformed ona relative basis, likely helped by the companys buyback program ($1.25bn remaining on its$2bn authorization) and a flight to quality.Goldman Sachs Glob

22、al Investment Research 3November 27, 2011Americas: IT Supply Chain & ComponentsExhibit 3: The recent market sell-off has hit the stocks in our IT Supply Chain & Components coverage especially hard Stock performance since November 15, 2011 S&P500COMPSOXAPHMOLX0%STTELARWAVTIMSNXTECDJBLFLEX

23、PLXSSANMMSI-2%-4%-6%-5.4%-5.7%-8%-9.5%-11.4%-10.9%-7.9%-9.4%-10.4%-9.5%-7.9%-9.1%-10%-12%-12.3%-13.1%-12.3%-12.8%-14%-13.2%-14.3%-15.3%-16%-18%Components-20%DistributorsEMS-18.9%PSIndicesSource: FactSet.Rating and pricing informationJabil Circuit, Inc. (B/N, $18.34), Motorola Solutions Inc. (B/N, $4

24、3.70), Plexus Corp. (N/N,$23.69) and Sanmina-SCI Corp. (N/N, $7.06)Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4November 27, 2011Americas: IT Supply Chain & ComponentsReg ACI, Craig Hettenbach, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about

25、the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Investment ProfileThe Goldman Sachs Investment Profile provides investme

26、nt context for a security by comparing key attributes of that security to its peer group and market. The four key attributes depicted are: growth, returns, multiple and volatility. Growth, returns and multiple are indexed based on composites of several methodologies to determine the stocks percentil

27、e ranking within the region's coverage universe.The precise calculation of each metric may vary depending on the fiscal year, industry and region but the standard approach is as follows: Growth is a composite of next year's estimate over current year's estimate, e.g. EPS, EBITDA, Revenue

28、. Return is a year one prospective aggregate of various return on capital measures, e.g. CROCI, ROACE, and ROE. Multiple is a composite of one-year forward valuation ratios, e.g. P/E, dividend yield, EV/FCF, EV/EBITDA, EV/DACF, Price/Book. Volatility is measured as trailing twelve-month volatility a

29、djusted for dividends. QuantumQuantum is Goldman Sachs' proprietary database providing access to detailed financial statement histories, forecasts and ratios. It can be used for in-depth analysis of a single company, or to make comparisons between companies in different sectors and markets. GS S

30、USTAINGS SUSTAIN is a global investment strategy aimed at long-term, long-only performance with a low turnover of ideas. The GS SUSTAIN focus list includes leaders our analysis shows to be well positioned to deliver long term outperformance through sustained competitive advantage andsuperior returns

31、 on capital relative to their global industry peers. Leaders are identified based on quantifiable analysis of three aspects of corporate performance: cash return on cash invested, industry positioning and management quality (the effectiveness of companies' management of the environmental, social

32、 and governance issues facing their industry). Disclosure AppendixCoverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s)Craig Hettenbach: America-IT Supply Chain & Components.America-IT Supply Chain & Components: Amphenol Corp., Arrow Electronics Inc., Avnet, Inc., Flextronics International Ltd.,

33、 Ingram Micro Inc., Jabil Circuit, Inc., Molex Inc., Motorola Solutions Inc., Plexus Corp., Sanmina-SCI Corp., Sensata Technologies Holding N.V., SYNNEX Corp., TEConnectivity Ltd., Tech Data Corp.Company-specific regulatory disclosuresThe following disclosures relate to relationships between The Gol

34、dman Sachs Group, Inc. (with its affiliates, "Goldman Sachs") and companies covered by the Global Investment Research Division of Goldman Sachs and referred to in this research.Goldman Sachs has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months: Arrow Electronics

35、Inc. ($32.97), Motorola Solutions Inc. ($43.70), Sanmina-SCI Corp. ($7.06), Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. ($28.47) and TE Connectivity Ltd. ($30.11)Goldman Sachs expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services in the next 3 months: Amphenol Corp. ($41.58), Arro

36、w Electronics Inc. ($32.97), Flextronics International Ltd. ($5.46), Jabil Circuit, Inc. ($18.34), Molex Inc. ($22.16), Motorola Solutions Inc. ($43.70), Sanmina-SCI Corp. ($7.06), Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. ($28.47), TE Connectivity Ltd. ($30.11) and Tech Data Corp. ($45.71)Goldman Sachs has

37、 received compensation for non-investment banking services during the past 12 months: Arrow Electronics Inc. ($32.97),Motorola Solutions Inc. ($43.70), Sanmina-SCI Corp. ($7.06), Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. ($28.47), TE Connectivity Ltd. ($30.11) and Tech Data Corp. ($45.71)Goldman Sachs had a

38、n investment banking services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Arrow Electronics Inc. ($32.97), Flextronics International Ltd. ($5.46), Motorola Solutions Inc. ($43.70), Sanmina-SCI Corp. ($7.06), Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. ($28.47) and TEConnectivity Ltd. ($30.11)Goldman S

39、achs had a non-investment banking securities-related services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Arrow Electronics Inc. ($32.97), Molex Inc. ($22.16), Motorola Solutions Inc. ($43.70), Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. ($28.47), TE Connectivity Ltd. ($30.11) and Tech Data Corp. ($45

40、.71)Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 5November 27, 2011Americas: IT Supply Chain & ComponentsGoldman Sachs had a non-securities services client relationship during the past 12 months with: Arrow Electronics Inc. ($32.97), Avnet, Inc. ($27.02), Flextronics International Ltd. ($5.46), Mole

41、x Inc. ($22.16), Motorola Solutions Inc. ($43.70), Sanmina-SCI Corp. ($7.06), Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. ($28.47), TE Connectivity Ltd. ($30.11) and Tech Data Corp. ($45.71)Goldman Sachs has managed or co-managed a public or Rule 144A offering in the past 12 months: Motorola Solutions Inc. ($

42、43.70), Sanmina-SCI Corp. ($7.06) and Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. ($28.47)Goldman Sachs makes a market in the securities or derivatives thereof: Amphenol Corp. ($41.58), Flextronics International Ltd. ($5.46), Jabil Circuit, Inc. ($18.34), Molex Inc. ($22.16), Motorola Solutions Inc. ($43.70),

43、 Plexus Corp. ($23.69), Sanmina-SCI Corp. ($7.06), Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. ($28.47) and Tech Data Corp. ($45.71)Goldman Sachs is a specialist in the relevant securities and will at any given time have an inventory position, "long" or "short," and may be on the opposite

44、side of orders executed on the relevant exchange: Amphenol Corp. ($41.58), Sensata Technologies Holding N.V. ($28.47) and Tech Data Corp. ($45.71)There are no company-specific disclosures for: Ingram Micro Inc. ($17.12) and SYNNEX Corp. ($27.40)Distribution of ratings/investment banking relationship

45、sGoldman Sachs Investment Research global coverage universeRating Distribution Investment Banking Relationships Buy Hold Sell Buy Hold Selllobal As of October 1, 2011, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research had investment ratings on 3,198 equity securities. Goldman Sachs assigns stocks as Buys and

46、 Sells on various regional Investment Lists; stocks not so assigned are deemed Neutral. Such assignments equate to Buy, Hold and Sell for the purposes of the above disclosure required by NASD/NYSE rules. See 'Ratings, Coverage groups and views and related definitions' below. Price target and

47、 rating history chart(s)Regulatory disclosuresDisclosures required by United States laws and regulationsSee company-specific regulatory disclosures above for any of the following disclosures required as to companies referred to in this report: manager or co-manager in a pending transaction; 1% or ot

48、her ownership; compensation for certain services; types of client relationships; managed/co-managed public offerings in prior periods; directorships; for equity securities, market making and/or specialist role. Goldman Sachs usually makes a market in fixed income securities of issuers discussed in t

49、his report and usually deals as a principal in these securities.The following are additional required disclosures: Ownership and material conflicts of interest: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, professionals reporting to analysts and members of their households from owning securities of

50、any company in the analyst's area of coverage.Analyst compensation: Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Goldman Sachs, which includes investment banking revenues. Analyst as officer or director: Goldman Sachs policy prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts or mem

51、bers of their households from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company in the analyst's area of coverage. Non-U.S. Analysts: Non-U.S. analysts may not be associated persons of Goldman, Sachs & Co. and therefore may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711/NYS

52、E Rules 472 restrictions oncommunications with subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by the analysts.Additional disclosures required under the laws and regulations of jurisdictions other than the United States The following disclosures are those required by the jurisdiction

53、 indicated, except to the extent already made above pursuant to United States laws and regulations. Australia: This research, and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. Brazil: Disclosure information in relation to

54、CVM Instruction 483 is available atGoldman Sachs Global Investment Research 6November 27, 2011Americas: IT Supply Chain & ComponentsJapan: Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. is a Financial Instrument Dealer under the Financial Instrument and Exchange Law, registered with the Kanto Financial Bureau (R

55、egistration No. 69), and is a member of Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) and Financial Futures Association of Japan (FFAJ). Sales and purchase of equities are subject to commission pre-determined with clients plus consumption tax. See company-specificdisclosures as to any applicable discl

56、osures required by Japanese stock exchanges, the Japanese Securities Dealers Association or the Japanese Securities Finance Company.Ratings, coverage groups and views and related definitionsBuy (B), Neutral (N), Sell (S) -Analysts recommend stocks as Buys or Sells for inclusion on various regional I

57、nvestment Lists. Being assigned a Buy or Sell on an Investment List is determined by a stock's return potential relative to its coverage group as described below. Any stock not assigned as a Buy or a Sell on an Investment List is deemed Neutral. Each regional Investment Review Committee manages

58、various regional Investment Lists to a global guideline of 25%-35% of stocks as Buy and 10%-15% of stocks as Sell; however, the distribution of Buys and Sells in any particular coverage group may vary as determined by the regional Investment Review Committee. Regional Conviction Buy and Sell lists r

59、epresent investment recommendations focused on either the size of the potential return or the likelihood of the realization of the return.Return potential represents the price differential between the current share price and the price target expected during the time horizon associated with the price target. Price targets are required for all covered stocks. The return potential, price target an