全球輕型電動(dòng)車發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和下世代LEV

1、全球輕型電動(dòng)車發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和下世代LEV全球輕型電動(dòng)車 開展現(xiàn)狀和下世代LEV愛德.本杰明本杰明咨詢臺(tái)北國際自行車展 2021年3月LEV DefinitionLess than 100 Kg (Usually)2 or 3 wheelsElectric motorVariety of Energy Storage methodsElectric Bicycle, Electric Scooter, Electric Motor Cycle, Three Wheel Cycle Truck 輕型電動(dòng)車的定義通常重量低于100Kg兩輪或三輪電機(jī)多種儲(chǔ)能方法電動(dòng)自行車,電動(dòng)輕摩,電動(dòng)摩托車,電動(dòng)三輪貨

2、車LEV輕型電動(dòng)車LEV輕型電動(dòng)車Future Of Personal TransportMost people, world wide, would like to have a car. Cars are comfortable, seem safer, and have high prestige. Butthere simply is not enough money, land, or materials for everyone to have a car. And this is before the problems created by air pollution and e

3、nvironmental costs of car industry.But it is possible for almost everyone to have a two wheeler powered by electricity. 個(gè)人交通工具的未來世界上大多數(shù)人都愿意擁有一部汽車。汽車更加舒適平安，享有美譽(yù)。但是，現(xiàn)有的金錢、土地和原材料不可能滿足所有人對汽車的需求。再加上空氣污染和汽車工業(yè)對環(huán)境的影響。但是，世界上幾乎每個(gè)人都擁有一輛電動(dòng)兩輪車是可以實(shí)現(xiàn)的。Current Market StatusThe LEV industry today is something like t

4、he car industry before 1910. Horseless carriages were the idea at that time. No one in 1910 really knew what the car would look like in 2021. Or what it could do, or that it would be a declining industry. Most LEVs today are electric bicycles. Does that sound a bit like “horseless carriage?World wid

5、e, about 22 million LEVs were built in 2021. Roughly 11 Billion Dollars. 市場開展現(xiàn)狀今天的輕型電動(dòng)車產(chǎn)業(yè)好比1910年以前的汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)。當(dāng)時(shí)，汽車便是不用馬拉的馬車，沒有人想像得出2021年的汽車會(huì)是什么樣子，會(huì)有哪些功能，或者汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)將會(huì)下滑。今天電動(dòng)自行車在輕型電動(dòng)車中占大多數(shù)。這聽上去是不是有點(diǎn)像“不用馬拉的馬車？2021年全球共制造約22,000,000輛輕型電動(dòng)車，價(jià)值110億美元。Markets TodayChina will continue to be largest market. India large

6、 population, large need, not as prosperous as China. EU environmental issues, plus dense populations, this will be the highest value market for top quality. Japan dense populations, need for folding and compact vehicles. USA- longer distances, need higher speeds and power. SE Asia tough environment,

7、 need sturdy, weather proof. Rest of World - most will need sturdy, cheap vehicles. China exports ebikes to 170 different countries!今天的LEV市場中國將繼續(xù)成為最大的市場。印度人口眾多，需求量大，但不如中國經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮。歐盟對環(huán)保的重視和稠密的人口，將使其成為高品質(zhì)電動(dòng)車最有價(jià)值的市場。日本人口稠密，需要折疊和結(jié)構(gòu)緊湊的交通工具。美國騎行距離遠(yuǎn)，需要更高的速度和更大的功率。東南亞氣候潮濕炎熱，環(huán)境惡劣，需要鞏固、耐用和防水的交通工具。世界上大多數(shù)其它國家和地區(qū)都需要

8、鞏固耐用，價(jià)格低廉的交通工具。中國向世界上170個(gè)國家出口電動(dòng)自行車！Electric Bikes This product is not mature, but we have roughly l5 years of good experience helping make a reliable, cheap, functional product for some markets. Due to low cost, high utility, this will remain an important part of the LEV industry. Most governments e

9、ncourage Electric Bikes. 電動(dòng)自行車電動(dòng)自行車并不成熟，但15年的經(jīng)驗(yàn)使我們能夠?yàn)橐恍┦袌鎏峁┛煽?，廉價(jià)，實(shí)用的產(chǎn)品。電動(dòng)自行車本錢低，成效大，將繼續(xù)成為輕型電動(dòng)車產(chǎn)業(yè)的重要局部。大多數(shù)政府鼓勵(lì)電動(dòng)自行車。Markets TomorrowElectric Bikes will become more powerful, becoming more like electric mopeds or electric motor scooters. Weather protection will be an important improvement. The streaml

10、ining effect of a shell will also increase speed and endurance. Safety will be an important issue, with innovations in controls and protection. Sales will expand to about 130 million pieces per year at a higher price - or 104 Billion dollars. 未來的LEV市場電動(dòng)自行車功率更大，更類似于電動(dòng)輕摩。在抵御惡劣天氣方面將有重要改進(jìn)。流線型外殼會(huì)同時(shí)提高速度和延

11、長使用壽命。平安仍然十分重要。將會(huì)在控制和保護(hù)方面出現(xiàn)創(chuàng)新。產(chǎn)銷量將增加到每年130,000,000輛，銷售額也隨著售價(jià)的提高而增加到1040億美元。Electric ScootersThis will be the most numerous product. High utility for the largest number of users. Electric MotorcyclesThis will be the highest value product for LEVs verging on being too big and heavy to be regarded as a

12、n LEV. Largely limited to USA and EU markets. Electric Mini ScootersNot just a toy. Valid tool for many indoor and short range out door tasks. Segway賽格威Three WheelersLocal transportShort range taxiHandicapped vehiclesPost BikesMore and more of world post and parcel will move by two wheels and electr

13、ic power. Light Delivery外賣效勞Particularly food deliveryBattery TechnologyBatteries of today are good enough, and the price is low enough. Cycle life and consistency need to improve. Batteries will get better and better. Huge investment in this world wide. Maybe not cheaper and cheaper.Recycling and c

14、ustomer education is very important. Compare Gasoline to Lithium lithium safer, but consumers dont understand lithium as well as they understand gasoline. This will change. 電池技術(shù)今天的電池足夠好，價(jià)格也足夠低。循環(huán)壽命和一致性有待提高。全球范圍內(nèi)的巨大投資使電池技術(shù)越來越進(jìn)步。但價(jià)格不一定越來越低?；厥蘸鸵龑?dǎo)消費(fèi)者十分重要。鋰電比汽油更加平安，但消費(fèi)者對鋰電的了解程度遠(yuǎn)不如汽油。這將會(huì)改變。Motor Technolog

15、yMotors of today are good enough, but higher power motors will undergo great improvement. Motors of today are cheap enough the market can and will pay more in the future. Longer motor life will become necessary - target of 3,000 hours for normal LEVs. On a motor scooter this is about 100,000 KM. Todays good motors only 1,000 hours. Enough for now, but must improve in future. 電機(jī)技術(shù)今天的電機(jī)足夠好。但大功率電機(jī)將會(huì)有重大進(jìn)步。今天的電機(jī)足夠廉價(jià)。將來市場有能力且愿意支付更高的價(jià)格。電機(jī)壽命需要延長-一般LEV電機(jī)應(yīng)有3000小時(shí)使用壽命，可供電動(dòng)輕摩騎行100,000 公里。今天的高品質(zhì)電機(jī)壽命可達(dá)1000個(gè)小時(shí)?，F(xiàn)在足夠使用，但在將來必須有所改進(jìn)。Re