中國汽車與共享出行行業(yè)：贏得售后市場課件

1、Despite a slowing new car market, we look for 7% CAGR revenue opportunitiesfrom the auto aftermarket in 2020-25. Auto dealers, especially for luxurybrands, will remain the mainstay for after-sales services, while independentrepair chain stores have a chance to shine.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusi

2、nesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimpo

3、rtantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchan

4、alystaccount.August 10, 2020 MChina Autos & Shared MobilityWinning in the Aftermarket09:47 PM GMTMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Shelley Wang, CFAEquity Analyst+852 3963-0047Shelley.WangMContributorsMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Jack YeungEquity Analyst+852 2239-7843Jack.YeungMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+T

5、im HsiaoEquity Analyst+852 2848-1982Tim.HsiaoMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Frank WanResearch Associate+852 2239-1229Frank.WanMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Gary YuEquity Analyst+852 2848-6918Gary.YuMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+Eddy Wang, CFAEquity Analyst+852 2239-7339Eddy.WangMORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+

6、Jenny Jiang, CFAEquity Analyst+852 2848-7152Jenny.JiangMORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLCSimeon Gutman, CFAEquity Analyst+1 212 761-3920Simeon.GutmanMORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLCArmintas Sinkevicius, CFA, CPAEquity Analyst+1 212 296-5469Armintas.Sinkeviciusrequire less servicing, thus we estimate after-sales deman

7、d per carwillshrinkby30-35%onEVs.Thatsaid,webelievetheEVchallengeremains distant, because: 1) EVs have similar demand for accidentrepair and accessory sales, which account for 50-70% of existingafter-sales revenue, and have incremental demand for e-powertraincoolants; and 2) EV parc penetration is s

8、et to remain low at 20% by2030,whiletheICEcarparckeepsgrowing.Further,EVmakerssuchasTeslaareoutsourcingbodyshopservicestootherdealersandinde-pendentrepairstores,whichcreatesextrarevenueopportunitiesforluxury dealers.Stockimplications:Welookforluxurydealerstobenefitfromrisingaftermarket demand. Among

9、 them, Zhongsheng (0881.HK) is wellpositioned thanks to active efforts to extend warranty periods;Meidong (1268.HK) has high growth potential from after-sales as ayounger dealer group; Yongda (3669.HK) can benefit too, but to alesser extent, because it has 15-20% sales exposure to SAIC brands,and mi

10、ght lose some after-sales business to SAIC-backed Che XiangJia. Cango (CANG.N), as a leading auto transaction service platform,could benefit by facilitating aftermarket transactions in lower-tiercities. Fuyao Glass (3606.HK / 600660.SS) has only 20% marketshare in the China aftermarket, versus 60-70

11、% in OEMs, and haspotential to further penetrate the aftermarket. Alibaba (BABA.N)and JD (JD.O) can leverage their large user base, and direct onlinetraffic to their offline aftermarket franchises. PICC P&C (2328.HK)could save costs by developing its own aftermarket supply chain.With this note, Shel

12、ley Wang takes coverage of Cango Inc.Exhibit 1:Summary of price target changesCompanyTickerRatingNew OldZhongsheng0881.HKOWHKD60.0 60.0Meidong1268.HKOWHKD27.025.0YongdaZhengtongBaoxinCango3669.HK1728.HK1293.HKCANG.NOWEWEWEWHKDHKDHKDUSD10.0 12.01.1 1.31.3 1.35.9 5.2Price targetSource: Morgan Stanley

13、ResearchMChina Autos & Shared MobilityWinning in the Aftermarketespite a slowing new car market, we look for 7% CAGR revenue opportunities fromthe auto aftermarket in 2020-25. Auto dealers, especially for luxury brands, willremain the mainstay for after-sales services, while independent repair chain

14、 storeshave a chance to shine.Profit shifting from new car market to aftermarket: We believeChinas automotive aftermarket sales will grow at a 7% CAGR in2020-25, to a Rmb1.6trn revenue opportunityby 2025, andbecomethemajor profit driverforauto dealers and repair stores. We expectaftermarket growth t

15、o outpace flattish new car sales, and be sup-portedby:1)anincreasingcarparc,ata6%CAGRin2020-25,asthevehicle population continues to expand despite minimal growth innew car sales; 2) an aging car parc, as we gauge the average vehicleageinChinaatfiveyearsattheendof2019,belowtheUSat12yearsand Japan at

16、nine years.Luxury dealers will continue to dominate in the aftermarket:Authorized dealers have been dominating Chinas aftermarket with50-60% market share, we estimate; the remainder is mainly sharedacross small mom-and-pop repair stores. We expect luxury dealers,suchasZhongshengandMeidong,toremainth

17、emainstayafter-saleschannelforluxurycarssold,thankstohighercustomerretention,anextendedwarrantyperiodandgreaterintentiontopreserveusedcarvalue.Independent repair chain stores have an opportunity to shine:Meanwhile, thanks to the rapid development of e-commerce andexpress logistics industries, we exp

18、ect independent repair chainstores, especially those backed by Internet companies and OEMs,such as Tuhu, Tmall Car (by Alibaba), Jing Che Hui (by JD) and CheXiangJia(bySAIC),toconsolidatetheindustrywithan18pptmarketshare gain from mass-market dealers and mom-and-pop stores.EV challenge remains dista

19、nt: EVs have a modularized and thussimpler structure than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars andIndustry ViewChina Autos & Shared Mobility CautiousWHATSCHANGEDChina MeiDong Auto Holdings LtdPrice TargetFromHK$25.00ToHK$27.00China Yongda Automobiles ServicesPrice TargetChina Zhengtong Auto Service

20、sPrice TargetCango Inc.Price TargetHK$12.00HK$1.30US$5.20HK$10.00HK$1.10US$5.904MContents567913Order of PreferenceKey Charts to WatchInvestment SummaryProfit Shifting from New Car Market toAftermarketWho Will Benefit from the Growing Aftermarket?16 Debate #1: Can China Auto Dealers Continue toGrow t

21、he Aftermarket Business?19 Debate #2: Will the Aftermarket Disappear in theEV Era?22 Stock Implications30 China Auto Dealer Valuations36 Meidong: Financial Summary37 Meidong: Estimates Revisions38 Meidong: Valuation Methodology41 Yongda: Financial Summary42 Yongda: Estimate Revisions43 Yongda: Valua

22、tion Methodology46 Baoxin: Financial Summary47 Baoxin: Estimate Revisions48 Baoxin: Valuation Methodology51Zhengtong: Financial Summary52 Zhengtong: Estimate Revisions53 Zhengtong: Valuation Methodology56 Cango: Financial Summary57 Cango: Estimate Revisions58 Cango: Valuation Methodology5MOrder of P

23、referenceExhibit 2:Order of preferenceRatingTrading CurrencyPrice TargetCurrent PriceUpside/(Downside) (%)Market Cap (in USD mm)Avg Daily Traded Vol (in USD mm)Zhongsheng0881.HKOverweightHKD60.0048.7523%15,274.216.7Meidong1268.HKOverweightHKD27.0022.8518%3,406.44.7Yongda3669.HKOverweightHKD10.008.21

24、22%2,081.67.2Zhengtong1728.HKEqual-WeightHKD1.101.064%368.94.9CangoCANG.NEqual-weightUSD5.906.09-3%923.50.0Baoxin1293.HKEqual-weightHKD1.301.36-4%497.90.4Morgan Stanley EstimatesFY20eSalesEBITDAEBITEPSCNY141,41610,4789,0192.21CNY20,7071,3901,1700.66CNY63,7963,4382,9440.79CNY34,8992,8952,2870.22CNY1,

25、3532022021.55CNY37,9562,3571,8040.21FY21eSalesEBITDAEBITEPS163,97812,77411,1862.8327,4202,0751,8061.0672,5394,1403,6031.0036,8903,1622,5540.261,6974424422.7340,6262,6812,0830.26Valuation Multiples at Last CloseFY20eP/EEV/EBITEV/EBITDAEV/SalesFCF Yield19.9x13.3x11.5x0.8x5.2%31.3x20.7x17.4x1.2x0.6%9.3

26、x8.4x7.2x0.4x0.7%4.4x6.8x5.3x0.4x65.5%27.3x22.2x22.2x3.3xNA5.8x6.4x4.9x0.3x-12.9%FY21eP/EEV/EBITEV/EBITDAEV/SalesFCF Yield15.5x10.5x9.2x0.7x6.2%19.4x13.3x11.6x0.9x3.9%7.4x7.0 x6.1x0.4x12.0%3.7x6.0 x4.9x0.4x56.6%15.5x10.1x10.1x2.6xNA4.7x5.8x4.5x0.3x-18.5%Stock Price Performance1 Month3 Month1 YearYTD

27、4.3%51.6%141.3%52.8%8.6%68.5%328.7%123.6%(11.7%)17.2%29.6%19.0%(21.5%)(10.9%)(57.9%)(61.9%)7.4%19.9%(4.2%)(33.4%)3.0%54.5%(8.7%)(8.7%)Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Thomson Reuters (consensus mean). e = Morgan Stanley Research estimatesNote: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Resu

28、lts shown do not include transaction costs. Priced as of the close, 7 August 2020.MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCHExhibit 3:We expect the China auto aftermarket to reach a Rmb1.6trn revenueopportunity by 20250%12%10%8%6%4%2%0.020192020E2021E2022E2023E2024E2025EChina auto aftermarket revenue opportunitiesAuth

29、orized dealerIndependent chain storeIndependent mom-and-pop storeChina auto aftermarket sales YoYRmb trn1.00.2YoYMKey Charts to WatchExhibit 4:Authorized dealers will still dominate while independent repair storeshave a chance to shine37%9%54%23%28%49%0%10%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%

30、20%20192020E2021E2022E2023E2024E2025EMarket share shifts in China auto aftermarketAuthorized dealerIndependent chain storeIndependent mom-and-pop store40-50%20-30%Source: CAAM, Ministry of Transport, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimatesExhibit 5:Car repair, needed by both ICE and EV, accounts for 4

31、0-50% of after-sales revenue (2020E)Aftermarket revenue breakdown10-20%Accident car repairQuick repairMaintenanceAccessories02,0004,0006,0008,000Tesla Model 3Source: CAAM, Ministry of Transport, Morgan Stanley Research (E) estimatesExhibit 6:Maintenance cost of EVs is only 50-60% of ICEsMaintenance

32、cost for the first 40,000 kmBMW 3 series10K km20K km30K km40K km4 timesRmb7-8K2 timesRmb4-5K10-20%Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 7:Some independent aftermarket brands are backed by Internet/OEM/parts makersAuthorized4S dealersIndependentchain storeIndependentmom-and-pop storeFr

33、agemented local playersSource: Morgan Stanley Research6Source: Tesla, BMW, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 8:Stock implicationsChina AutoAftermarketRmb1.6trn by2025EAuto dealersZhongsheng (0881.HK, OW)Meidong (1268.HK, OW)InternetAlibaba (BABA.N, OW)JD (JD.O, OW)Yongda (3669.HK, OW)Zhengtong (1728.HK

34、, EW)Baoxin (1293.HK, EW)Auto partsFuyao Glass(3606.HK, EW)Cheng Shin Rubber(2105.TW, UW)InsurancePICC P&C (2328.HK, OW)Ping An (2318.HK, OW)PositiveNegativeAuto financeCango (CANG.N, EW)Source: Morgan Stanley Researchand-popstoresby2025inChina.Thatsaid,givenlessofacultureforDIY(do-it-yourself)inChi

35、na,weexpectthedealershiporDIFM(do-it-for-me) business model will prevail.EV challenge to after sales service remains distant: EVs have amodularized and thus simpler structure than ICE cars and thusrequirelessservicing.Asaresult,weestimateafter-salesdemandpercar will shrink by 30-35% on EVs. That sai

36、d, we believe the EV chal-lenge remains distant, because: 1) EVs have similar demand for acci-dent repair and accessory sales, and have incremental demand fore-powertrain coolants, and 2) we think EV parc penetration willremainlowat20%by2030(despitehighEVsalesgrowth),whiletheICE car parc keeps growi

37、ng. In addition, EV makers such as Tesla areoutsourcing bodyshop services to other dealers and independentrepair stores, which creates extra revenue opportunities for luxurydealers.Stockimplications:Welookforluxurydealerstobenefitfromrisingaftermarket demand. Among which, Zhongsheng (0881.HK) is wel

38、lpositionedthankstoitseffortstoextendwarrantyperiods;Meidong(1268.HK) has high growth potential for after-sales as a younger,fresher dealer group; Yongda (3669.HK) can benefit too, but to alesserextent,asweestimateithas15-20%salesexposuretobrandsundertheSAICGroupsuchasVWandGM,andthereforemightloseso

39、me after-sales business to SAIC-backed Che Xiang Jia. Zhengtong(1728.HK)sweaknewcarsalesandBaoxin(1293.HK)sstagnantnet-work expansion will lead to a lower-than-peer growth in their after-salesbusiness.Cango(CANG.N)asaleadingautotransactionserviceplatform,couldbenefitbyfacilitatingaftermarkettransact

40、ionssuchas personal accident, anti-theft, extended warranty insurance sales,in lower-tier cities. Fuyao Glass (3606.HK / 600660.SS) has only20%marketshareintheChinaaftermarket,versus60-70%inOEM,andhasthepotentialtofurtherpenetratetheaftermarketviasubsid-iary TripleX. Cheng Shin Rubber (2105.TW) is l

41、ikely to face intensi-fying competition in the aftermarket tire business, where itgenerates 70% of revenue, but may lose market share to Chineselocal and Korean players. Alibaba (BABA.N) and JD (JD.O) canleveragetheirlargeuserbase,anddirectonlinetraffictotheirofflineaftermarket franchises. PICC P&C

42、(2328.HK) could save costs bydeveloping its own aftermarket supply chain.7MInvestment SummaryProfit shifting from new car market to aftermarket: We believeChinas automotive aftermarket sales, which include services (forrepairandmaintenance)andparts(forreplacementandaccessories),willgrowata7%CAGRin20

43、20-25,toaRmb1.6trnrevenueopportu-nity by 2025. Also, the aftermarket will become the major profitdriver for dealers and repair stores, at 4x the profit size of the newcardistributionmarket,perourestimate.Webelievetheaftermarketgrowthwillbesupportedby:1)anincreasingcarparc,ata6%CAGRin2020-25,astheUSe

44、xperiencesuggeststhevehiclepopulationcancontinue to expand despite minimal growth in new car sales, and 2)anagingcarparc,aswegaugetheaveragevehicleageinChinaisfiveyears as at the end of 2019, well below the US at 12 years and Japanat nine years. An older car fleet can lead to higher maintenance andr

45、epair spending per vehicle.Luxury dealers will continue to dominate in the aftermarket:Chinas auto aftermarket is fragmented, with authorized dealersaccounting for 50-60% market share in 2019 per our simulation.Small size mom-and-pop stores take up the majority of the restmarketshare,whileindependen

46、trepairchainstoresremainminority.We expect luxury dealers, such as Zhongsheng and Meidong, toremain the mainstay after-sales channel for luxury cars sold, thanksto: 1) higher customer retention as they are less price sensitive; 2)extended warranty periods to retain the customer for a longer time;and

47、 3) greater intention to preserve used car value, as the used carmarket develops over time.Independent repair chain stores have an opportunity to shine:Meanwhile, thanks to the rapid development of e-commerce andexpress logistics industries, we expect independent repair chainstores,especiallythoseba

48、ckedbyInternetcompanies/OEMs/partsmakers, such as Tuhu (on its own, invested by Tencent), Tmall Car(backed by Alibaba), Jing Che Hui (backed by JD), Che Xiang Jia(backed by SAIC), and TyrePlus (backed by Michelin), to consolidatethe industry with an 18ppt market share gain from mass-marketdealers an

49、d mom-and-pop stores. In the US, independent auto partsretailers AutoZone (AZO.N) and OReilly (ORLY.O, both covered bySimeon Gutman) enjoyed 5-14% revenue CAGRs in 2000-19, andbecame 3x the size of the largest auto dealer group AutoNation(AN.N,coveredbyArmintasSinkevicius)intheaftermarketbusiness.We

50、lookforcertainhigh-qualityrepairchainstorestooutshinemom-MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH8MCompanyTickerCompetitive positioning in aftermarketUpcoming catalystsZhongsheng (OW)0881.HKl (+) Active promotion of warranty extension insurance plans will l Mercedes-Benz new car pricing.l Used car transaction volume

51、retain customers for further 3-4 years.l (+) Rapid expansion of used car business, underpinned by favor-growth.l After-sales recovery pace in 2H20.able VAT cut, will add 5-10% extra growth to Zhongsheng in2020.l (-) Customers for mass-market brands might switch to indepen-dent repair stores, given 8

52、 average store age.Meidong (OW)1268.HKl (+) Younger average store age, at four years, implies Meidongsafter-sales growth can outdo other listed dealer groups.l (+) Meidong management used to focus on new car business,but will emphasize after-sales KPIs in the future, which suggestsroom for improveme

53、nt.l (-) Customers in the lower-tier cities might be more price sensi-tive and choose cheaper alternatives.l BMW new car pricing.l New store expansion progress.l After-sales recovery pace in 2H20.Yongda (OW)3669.HKl (+) Customers in the tier-1/2 cities are less price sensitive, andwill stay with dea

54、lers after-sales channel for longer.l (-) Yongda sells warranty extension products as an agent, andthus salespersons might have less incentive to push for sales.l (-) Customers for mass-market brands might switch to indepen-dent repair stores, given older store age.l BMW new car pricing.l Shanghai l

55、icense plate quota for2021.l After-sales recovery pace in 2H20.Zhengtong (EW)1728.HKl (+) The potential investment by the state-owned Xiamen ITG, ifsuccessful, will improve Zhengtongs working capital andrestore normal operations.l (-) Zhengtongs new car volume declined in 2019, and we expectits volu

56、me to remain weak in 1H20, which will hurt after-salesgrowth in the future.l (-) Zhengtong didnt expand dealer network actively, and mayunderperform peers who have been gaining market share viaacquisitions.l Ability to pay off debt installments.l BMW new car pricing.l After-sales recovery pace in 2H

57、20.Baoxin (EW)1293.HKl (+) Baoxin has 90% revenue exposure to luxury brands, whichbodes well for its after-sales business.l (-) Baoxins after-sales gross margin declined in 2017-19, andgross profit per store level is lower than Zhongsheng andYongda, suggesting inferior operating efficiency.l (-) Bao

58、xin didnt expand dealer network actively, and may under-perform peers who have been gaining market share via acquisi-tions.l BMW new car pricing.l Cost cutting efficiency.l After-sales recovery pace in 2H20.Cango (EW)CANG.Nl (+) Cangos aftermarket revenue has shown resilience despiteCOVID-19 disrupt

59、ion.l (+) Cango can enjoy higher growth potential in the lower-tiercities, where insurance policy sales are not yet well penetrated.l (-) Customers in the lower-tier cities might be more price sensi-tive and competition among agents will be fierce.l Progress of launching new typesof insurance produc

60、ts.l Number of insurance transactionsCango has facilitated.MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH9MProfit Shifting from New Car Marketto Aftermarketindependent channels, and the latter include both chain stores andmom-and-pop stores. Authorized dealer stores have been domi-natingtheaftermarketindustryoverthepastde