美股能源行業(yè)：與NDPA關(guān)于Bakken生產(chǎn)前景的爐邊談話(huà)記錄

1、lobl Rsch | 2pil US Energyanscript fom ieside Chat with NDA Bakken Poduction Outlookighlighs omFisideChtih oh oaiplineuhoiy(NDecdr1FesidectswhJustinKringstadftheNDAtoevwt vws n Nh Dakota l & s ction, the futue f DAPL, l crude e exn cts, flaring & Nrn r (very esting cn e). e ethat the full transcript

2、 sn. Rigs dd o Kp oducion ltin heBAccgtoNDA,centrigctnthenat5rigssficttokeepwell cs d for flat ction n the egion t the DUC ventory s to ce t n the r term. Fm ch to , d estrictions and weather t the ability to move rigs; ce, y that s wy s ve n w to add rigs e the rise n l ces and . Kringstad also d 9

3、 month g n cceases and rig ceases. ven 0 wellhead cg and an assumed .5 WTI-to- rigs ratio, NDA s y 8 rigs g n the egion n the (cversionweenrigsandwellcssy.8-.).Kringstaddwe t e r rig ct g r t cd y esult n ction cs n 2 (t the e cenario). N, the 0 to 0 well cn range d d ction for crude l fairly y and

4、% fewer cs ae dto keep sction flat.FuueofL- onil cnios nd Ipcton inilsNDAs e case assumes that DAPL s l g and that the ct to WTI elatively ct wh s cal average value, wn 6 to 7 range. We appearsthatthevtwastgtofoceawnftheeweze e esting cenarios that . Kringstad raised n the event the cs t the .AgDAPL

5、wastw,NDAwdexcttoethemce feential to cease y an cemental 3 to . . Kringstad d thee s certainty wh egad to the r term cations f the l t wN,fthecnwasforanetw,NDAwdexcta-termceckforthenasaesultfthecessfceasingtotakeveries at the various s and n the cess f e c. NDA d that cently thee ae t enough cew, ta

6、nk cars, r engines n ce, that f thee was an dforcementalcrudeyrailtftheegion,theegionstepaedtodayto take massive amounts f cemental crude y rail. The n f the ck wn t may take fm weeks p to few months, as thee wd e a d for additional fing and for all f the equipment to e assembled and moved o the egi

7、on.onil Cudeiplinepnsion ojcThe l crude takeaway ct that cd exd exg ctue s the South d ct y the rue C. t cd add an cemental takeaway to , a b and fm thee crude cd e moved wn to r. The ct l s appval fm the Nh Dakota Public Servce Cnand.Kringstaddthatftheeeceivesappvalethis rthen twly take additional

8、x months to cct the quiisAAmericasPipelineshnur. shuni, CAAy HYPERLINK mailto:shneur.gershuni .c3Llod BrneAy HYPERLINK mailto:lloyd.byrne y.yr.c3gaigodzka, CAAy HYPERLINK mailto:agnieszka.zmigrodzka agnieszka.zmigzka.c3MichlleKnl, AceAy HYPERLINK mailto:michelle.kenel mic.kenel.c3WillimchsonAy HYPER

9、LINK mailto:william.atcheson w.atc.c3Bin AceAy HYPERLINK mailto:brian.reynolds .ey.c3bb AceAy HYPERLINK mailto:webb.higinbotham webb.c3This eport s n epaed y US Secs LLC YT CIFICION D RQIRD ICLOR, icludiiormiononeQiiveRrchRviwblidbyB,binone5.USsandstos wh cs cveed n s eseach eports. As a esult, vest

10、ors d e awae that the firm may ve a cct est that cd afect the ctivy f this eport. vestors d cr this eport as y a e factor n making their vestment cohrn BodrBu ConntIssue- Whtetps?Nrn r s Nh Dakotas t l s e wh 2 cs and y .cfd f capac. s cent U ct s at ,0 as Canadianflowswnto.Lastyea,FERCejected,0tari

11、fttdowejudice n that Nrn r wd e allowed to ce ck to them wh cementalnthatFERCfeltwasckingnthefirstfilingandNrncd certainly ask again to ve that ,0 tarif. . Kringstad ves that s certainly t an e thats g away and s y g to ce to amplify as moe n vs flows n Nrn . Potential ethane ecvery weduce the u ct

12、and fee p e s takeaway capacy wch cd e a ve for KE.Ohridbid n DUC ventory y c, NDA s rn Dn and t cKenzCs to e the two aeas that wd e t d fm DUCs cg Centflaringvelsad%and.Kringstadtexcttwlcemuch further as gas thee sa wth nthe oss:Shneur , eam, LPs and Natural sPipeline Aytat ULydyr, Head fNhAmerican

13、 Energy at UAaZmigzka, sDn& eam Aytat Ups:Justin Kringstad, Dector at NhDakota Pipeline AprBios:n At , Justin was appointed y the Nh Dakota l Cn as Dector f the Nh Dakota Pipeline A. Justin eceived s cal Engineering ee fm the Uversity f Nh Dakota, we e cently ves the Had Hamm Scl f y and cal Enginee

14、ring Avy CA, Justin functions as an advrto the EmPower NhDakota cPriortostimewhthePipelineA,JustinwdwhtheNhDakotalDv, the Energy and Envl ch Cente, the Nh Dakota cal Surve, and erra ces. Justin, we Katie, and thee s eside n ck, NhDakota.e t w s from r recent vestor call wh Nh Dakota Pipeline A. e ve

15、 edited the transcript w for c. r cal cthat o t ct the meaning f the ct ve n applied. The exd n o t cessarily reflect the vws and s f U. US accepts oresponsibilityfortheaccc,reliabilit,rcsfthenandwt e e either ctly r ctly for any s r e arising t f the e this nrany tthereof.dnsd, pil , 1 :0M Coodino:

16、 Hello and welce to the US Ext Call wh Nh Dakota Pipeline Ay d y Shneur . y e s La and m yr event manage. Dg the esentation yr s wl e n . r ctions. d to adveall sthat the esentation sgecdfor eplay Adw deto dthe esentation ver to Shneu. Please oahead.hnu:Thankyuanddafter,every.detowelceeveryetot Ener

17、gy and eam Feside Ct e wh U. m yr t toda, Shneur . m the eam and Natural sAyte at Uy we ae g a fequent t f s n r Feside Ct s wh Justin Kringstad,theDectorftheNhDakotaPipelineA,tocsskfor thenandW.JoiningtodaysFesideCtsalsoLydyr,HeadfUExn and Pction team, and Aa Zmigzka fm the US eam team as well.Prio

18、rtostimeatthePipelineA,JustinwdwhtheNhDakotal&Dv,theEnergyandEnvlchCenterandtheNhDakotaSurvey and erra ces. The n for todays call s a t esentation y Justin, and thee d e e s cd wh the ve that was t t at :0 .m. Eastern toda, and then wel transition to a fieside ct and n the e for sas well.e we t , I

19、o d to ead a few ces. As eseach analys we ae equiedtovecertainceselatingtotheefrwnelationshipand that f US wh any cy n wch we exess vws n this call toda. These ces ae available at HYPERLINK /disclosures ww.c/ces. Arvel, e each t to me and Ican vethem to yuafter the call toda.Whthat, st. Justin, than

20、k yuvery muchfor gsntodayscall.usin:es. Thank yu again for vg me and the we US team. As evmentioned, this , I t know wch r f events that ve d wh the Uteam, t I always enjoy them. I was y to e vd ck and m eally forwadto the cne toda.I know that certainly ce the t time I e wh this , the wd s mucmuchfe

21、ent.Sowefeelthatweegtotatmoecycgtfthe foga.IknowthatpentheWnnwedeecswwrandrthingsthataelgforspe,taswetgthemonthfyandy,mexctingthatwettoeatandturn the way the ys eacting n Nh Dakota, ction vels n the egion and thingsaeexctedtoturnandttendingwasagain.Soweecertainlyforwadto that pe.Then certainly ver t

22、he t year a r f midsteam s ve ce to . The ,andthatwelcsnmoelre,scertainlyDakotaAccess,wthatwdkervariouscenariosgnwtscdeFrida.AdyweoveetyeffirmectionnFridayryafterthat wee t g this r even further and vg that certainty g ver the .A,Nrnrls,asfarastctnthatymas t exs Nh Dakota, came to t t yea. e o know

23、w a t moe about wthat ce and s k , and o those ae the r things that m certainly gforwadto cgabout e toda.t wh that, again for everye n the audience, f yve n me esent e katanything,yuknowthatIvyelynmycsandmapsandthings,and o as we wk thh this ct and cn m certainly g to e efeence.Sofyucanvethateck,eea

24、dytoflipckandforthas theswlctate,lomyttocalltesandtryandaddcxt and evsto the cSo wh that, I think that m t g forwad to we the s ce and wethis,andolkindfdtightforamomenteandkforwadtothe hnu:eat.Thankyuforthatctionthee.Justin,mayetotf,Imean, yuefeencedDakotaAccesstnyrepaedemarkse,Iwastwgyu can ve s yr

25、 ymans vw n terms f yr ction exctations for the WnwhDAPLandwtDAPL.Adtrytovesthecrastowyuthink aboutthetwofeenttysfcenariosandoforth,andmayeftftheanswer sdnaneceftheewasanadversecnversusethatwve the nthee to x months to espond to as well also.usin:es, absolutel. So thees a few things n thee that I th

26、ink wd e d to kind f ck a . A, f we p o the e ck, s t kind f t wweweeat.Wnwetalkaboutne3centactivynNhDakota,thiswas as f , we wee wn to 2 g rigs. I t ccked e this aftern and wee ck p to , o weve n tending we n that 4 to 7 rigs e the trfweeks.f we p to e , this s g to kind f d o my assumptions f wcti

27、onwdorkenthevariousDAPLcenario.Sone4wtye g at s kind f a y f Nh Dakotas rig activy n cction wh WTI c.sae,nthatfyukatthegtheewrsthatweven Nh Dakota, yu ve the /9 wrn that yu can e thee, yu ve the/6wrnandthenmostecentlythe0wr,andfyukatthe feenceweenrigactivynNhDakotaandWTI,theestendsthatccrweachfthose

28、 sthat weve Sotheealearlyysfthe,WTIrigsnthisctaeata1to1cale,onthe early ys f n velopment t was at about a .5 ratio. u can very eliably that k at WTI, take t times ., ve r take, and yd e right at the rig activy Nh Dakota. As the y came t f that wrn n , we went to a 2 to 1 ratio and for a r f years th

29、ee t was very c. A, rig activy and WTI weeatabouta2to1ratio,7to0twasalmosta1to1ratio.twasealeasyto y , wt wd 5 r 0 mean to Nh Dakota? Ad we cd make assumptions about wt that wd mean n rig activy and then ce cand ction.Wt we t know w s as we ce t f this wr and we ve this massive cctrightwifyukatweWTI

30、sandkatwerrigct,we exctedy,andweventhoseysnthetfxtoemonths,twce ecvery and rig activy and y cs n ction, we ae excting that thee wl e very , n the months f y/June/July as wee othose warmer , cant ramp pnactivy nNhDakota.Wt wl that w ratio ? m t g about a .5 ratio, again t cause we tveaealdcryl,stgtoo

31、ckto1to?stmoerstrytoeatnthecvativeeandythatwelyeaesponse,atfmwtweve nver the trfyears?A,gthatassumption,calltthe.,namomenteyegtorme talk about wt the cs wd mean, wt the eccs k , and that all ys o that n f wt wd a 5 t mean to Nh Dakota? Wt wd a0tmean to NhDakota? So m ttrygto again tthe Aswepforwa,fy

32、ukate,thatsmycentlctionfoecastfor NhDakotaandthatsthemkthee.SoIowthataswemovethermonthsthatctionwdtramping.nthecenarionthatcase, the e case assumes that Dakota Access s l , that the ct elatively ct wh we s , wch s tycally n that 6 to 7 range e ver the tyear r. The w case cenario sthe EIA ce ck, minu

33、s SownwekatDAPLandy,wtstoacefeentialfor6towh DAPL ? Wt s f n Friday thees a cn made we that ym s to e t w? s easier to t to wt the m ce cationswd,wchvennecdandnctfilingsandthingsntheto5rangecementalntopfthetraditional,callt6to.Sothatadditional3to5 t to the n s yu we n ween the w and e case cenario.

34、yu assume that the WTI was cd and t was ct wh wt the EIA foecasting,ctionvelsandactivywdceasewejustethatrange, sgto enthe mid ween the eand the w case cenario thee.Ws moe fict to y s wt s n the -term. f thees a cn Friday that ys the ym s to y n the cess f ceasing to take veriesatthevarioussandnthece

35、ssfec,thentheewdmost certainly e a moe exteme -term ce ck that the n wd feel. Wt the n f that , ve d s f feent c, wd t take weeks months for that ebalancg to ccr and we t finds that w l f that 3 to5cemental.So that ce ck, I t know wt that exact figue wd , t certainly we tvethecew,thetankcars,theengi

36、nesnce,thatftwasaneforcementalcrudeyrailtftheegion,weywteepaedtodayto take massive amounts f cemental crude y rail. That t mean that they ct e ead, t s y g to take, call t four to x weeks at t for fing to ramppallftheequipmenttoeassembledandmovedotheegion.Sothee,at t for that , moe exteme ce . Ad cd

37、 we theoetically e -term cts n ction? I think that wd e a fair cenario that e cargue.t n the event thee was a thee r a x month cn n Frida, again, f thats the e t , f thee was a r y n that cess that wd certainly cl to the egion as a w, that e f those cs cd e wd t the cess. Then yu ve the r exteme tha

38、t they ae able to ce and things cenas Iwdexct them nthe ecase.So f folks ae g for s n , I t ve a d cryl l right w eithe. I thinktheesatfargumentsmadenhcasesright.mntheeas many f y, wee t waiting to e wt s t n Frida. As I mentioned, I eallyethatweveecy,causeagainftcstogverfor weeks rmonths tcseal cgt

39、o ceto move forwahnu: That was r l thee, Justin. y o appece that. I think ycveedtheDAPLcenariosettywell.IwastwgfIcantftakethatand take e f the cs that yu d made e about the WTI-to-rigs ratio and o forth. Just assuming s y the d case wh DAPL r an adverse cn was to ce,wectthe,s,fmthe0yweweeattoda,that

40、fweIstwdeewedtoapplythat.5rigratio tothatyerandassumethennthatcenariothatyuwdegata rig ctthat wdenthe mid-30s? sthat the right way to kat the analyusin:es, yes. Thats exactly . So n exact math e, ye g at , 8 rigs that cenario at a 0 wellheador m , 0 wellhead c. Wt we d to also then cr s that f yu as

41、sume, call t a .8 r 2 cversion ween rigs and well c, o f we take that 7 times ., ye g at y 8 well csrmonth nthat tyefcenario.n egas to well c, n s 8 and 9 f that e ck, f folks can thee,wheverythingthatwasgnverthetyeartwasntevencticaltotry andrunwmodelseveryywncesweegadforsnNhDakota, t y n the transp

42、ortation e t I o wk wh r e n the g andwttoexctnctionvels.SoIdmakingthiscthatd, m g to y t all t n the table. Wt s to ction at various cncenarios?Sonthat0to0wellcnrangeyucanethatctionforcrudelfairly . u d to ve r than 0 r r than 0 well cs month to eally t to w ction n the egion. Aything s than that,

43、and thats wt weve n g e the t r f months n the w, ye g to e ction c. Thats again that cn ween e cthat yu e n e , w ckly s Nh Dakotas c well c, the ,+ wells that ae /7 n the c? Theye always wanting to l that ction w. So yu ve to e feeding that wh w wells cg e and thatsw we tto these various cenarios

44、fcNatural , n the r d n e , s fae r than crude l s causeagainwtheeservreactsvertimeandthe-to-oilratioceasingand ottakesswellcsrmonthtokeepsflatrw.Soevenfwen the cenario f the example wee t yg wh e, , call t 8 well c, that crude l may y flat t l s ction wd e excted to ceto w rthat cenario.hnu:, eat.u

45、sin:es.hnu:uddnyrgemarksthatweeyatabout5rigsright , o thats vy well w that mid-30s tye . s that a function cers ae waiting to e wt s wh DAPL, r s t that rigs t t addedntheweandwedethetycall?Adfyucemind swtmonth that tycally tends to cc.usin:es, yes. So ye absolutely right, that todays rig ct s t any

46、we even r fict to keep well cs we they wd d to e to d . TheethingthatweoveentheegionsanventoryfDUCwells,thatycanens0and.Itriedtooewktfalltoy,wetexct rig cs to t vg , call t , o we ve enough ventory centDUCwells?IwantedtoetDUCwellsthatweencationsthatwt e attractive, anywe r these tye f ce , and w man

47、y ceasonably eexcted to ecSo even wh that 5 rig ct that yu e n e 1 and that DUC c, NDakota wd e n a n we as we t o the c/A/y timeframe, andevenydcauseevenwnwrigstaddedtheestycallyathee-tox- month g ween wn that cn and the actual ction cs to the ce, o these DUC wells wl ce to e t for the xt l months.

48、ythedmathand,weoveaDUCventoryfwell-positioned DUCsthatcdptctionvels,tfweottaddingrigsnthe ,wewlwkthhallfthedDUCcsandthenwewdnamuchmoeecenariofwettadditionalrigsandtnmoesnthe So wn o we e activy ck p n Nh Dakota? t w all the major cgcsnNhDakotaaelrdestrictions,owtse wh r c, every , ce yu t thh the d

49、feeze time we ve this ww f, call t early ch to mid-Mach all the way thh t tycally n e Al r , that ye t able to move vy equipment very easily wt cl s r ys and r things. ce those d estrictions t,tmakestmucheasiertomovefraccew,moveevencefluids,allyrigequipment,andotheestycallythatkindfy/Juneswtweallkto

50、waforwnwetgthingseallymoveckotheegionandtgmoe active.So thats wy I keep efeencg that y/June timeframe. I think that again t wveemoeccenthemarketplaceaswellaseasecsandcsthat cewhmovgefthe destriction Llod:H, Justin. s Ly. Let me o ck to a ce f yr . f I k at the cenarios that yu t t thee for l and I k

51、 at the cent rig c, ye y nthat 0to 0csrmonth range. sthat cect?usin:At, 0na dcase, yes, na 2to 1ratio. es.Llod:Thirty n a d case. . So yu d t at 0 rigs, we ve 3 today andtheesnestoaddrigsversusefther.Wysthat? stheemoecenthis?Doweveaccernabouttheventory?Iknow yu t t that e that eaks wn the ventory y

52、feent vels, t wt ae managementygaboutthatandwtwdtttomove?Iassumeatvels that s attractive. s t DAPL? t t m e thees a estriction n the capacy to take tty rail, wy oyuthink yuvent added moe rigs aleady?usin: Thats n a d cratcr for a w. m t d that s n , t this appears a t wer than even weve n n the . yc

53、ally again, even wn we k at c wr, thees a x- to h g ween wtheesceecveryandwnweactuallyerigsmoveckotheegion.Sowee lnthattimeframeneeefwekat,calltNvember/Decemberfwthee was ceasing cce n the marketplace and ces g to ve. So I thinkweelwnthatwwtoeee,tfwetttoetnrJune and we ve this call, then Ithink moe

54、ccerswdcI think s t again a timing thing. DAPL t , d estrictions t gwrt,andcgtfthewtwrnnyteithe, o again, I ve cce that s c, t maye t as n as ewdcertainly Llod:. f yu k at e , and this s a eat e that yu t togetherI knowyutalkedabouttttimetooyuwthemostattractiveaceagentheWTI env. s thee any s yu can

55、t ad e f the r zand f? s t ? s t 5 as we move ? v, I think 0 s y d c feentials. sthat cect?usin:es.Thatscect.Soyes,thosefourcsthatyuenthefa-rightallfit wnthat0rskindfeakeventw,Icallta%aftertaxratefeturThensagcaleallthewaywntoyuvetoe+toenthose0to 0elaywellrange.Soweveackfthemnthemiddlethee,thosekind

56、f een cs that ae y cr to , 0 tye l envs that again,theyetgtoeattractiveanytimenandotheymaytnthatfor an extended dftime.Llod:esting. , eat. Thats awesome. Then I ve e moe n this vein. Wn o we t to d to e the rig ct o to that 0 to , 0 vel forwad to d ction n cause f the time ys and f e that forwa?stmi

57、ddlefthisyear?Wnowedtoetwection,cffthis year and n?, wsthe time y that wee gat?usin:es, n my mind we wd ve to t g that ck y June/mid-Jul. wee t g t y then, wee eally g to h t o that ytimeframe. So f we t t those vels y mid-yea, we wd e at risk I think gction ea tlwe can tthat activy cked Llod:, awes

58、ome.usin:cause the DUCstcertainly aent thee.Llod: I ve e moe. Hw about n the ct , and m t eally talking about vcecsandfethat,taetheerecsthatthesecsae fac,wrweetalkingaboutflaringrgranythingthatscgwthe w administration thatsgto hcsusin:Nt wn yu k at t kind f at a ,t v. I wd y that NDakota, thee ae ce

59、rtainly , thee ae aceage s that wl e cted y federal c. Cg Nh Dakota to e r , I think wee a -positioned nthat ftas far as w muchfraceage scted.Fm a e ctive as far as g and egulatory envt e, tax env, those tye f things d e eal cve wh r y, and o I t e those as major cc. r g s ve always n t r ce to mark

60、et and then wr always s kind f t s at that t f a vantage, t the ck certainly smade pfor that as far as w well the wells ve nt e f those federal , w ckly those can e wd t f theye to wd , s g s than I wd y ad that % f aceage s ae g cted y federal c. y f r ce aeas, call Nt cKenze C, those tye f things