概率論畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯(適用于畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯+中英文對(duì)照)

1、 | HYPERLINK / 百度首頁(yè) HYPERLINK /v2/?login 登錄 HYPERLINK /cashier/browse/vipcashier?dqStatCode=topnav_joinvip&cashier_code=topnav_joinvip VIP意見(jiàn)反饋 HYPERLINK /apps?fr=1011 下載客戶端4/15/2019概率論畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯（適用于畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯+中英文對(duì)照）- 百度文庫(kù) HYPERLINK /?fr=nav 首頁(yè) HYPERLINK javascript:void(0); 分類 HYPERLINK javascript:void(0

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3、 HYPERLINK /list/10 HYPERLINK /list/108 理學(xué)Statistical hypothesis testingAdriana Albu Loredana UngureanuPolitehnicaUniversityTimisoara,adrianaaaut.utt.roPolitehnicaUniversityTimisoara,loredanauaut.utt.roAbstract Inthisarticle,wepresentaBayesianstatisticalhypothesistestinginspection,testingtheoryandth

4、eprocessMentionedhypothesistestingintherealworldandtheimportanceof,andsuccessfultestoftheNotes.Key wordsBayesianhypothesistesting;Bayesianinference;TestofsignificanceIntroductionAstatisticalhypothesistestisamethodofmakingdecisionsusingdata,whetherfromacontrolledexperimentoranobservationalstudy(notco

5、ntrolled).Instatistics,aresultiscalledstatisticallysignificantifitisunlikelytohaveoccurredbychancealone,accordingtoapre-determinedthresholdprobability,thesignificancelevel.ThephrasetestofsignificancewascoinedbyRonaldFisher:Criticaltestsofthiskindmaybecalledtestsofsignificance,andwhensuchtestsareavai

6、lablewemaydiscoverwhetherasecond1sampleisorisnotsignificantlydifferentfromthefirst.Hypothesistestingissometimescalledconfirmatorydataanalysis,incontrasttoexploratorydataanalysis.Infrequencyprobability,thesedecisionsarealmostalwaysmadeusingnull-hypothesistests.TheseareteststhatanswerthequestionAssumt

7、 hiantg the nullhypothesis is true, what is the probability of observing a value for the test statistic that is atleast as extreme as the value that was actually observed?) 2 Moreformally,theyrepresentanswerstothequestion,posedbeforeundertakinganexperiment,ofwhatoutcomes of theexperiment would lead

8、to rejection of the null hypothesis for apre-specifiedprobabilityofanincorrectrejection.Oneuseofhypothesistestingisdecidingwhetherexperimentalresultscontainenoughinformationtocastdoubtonconventionalwisdom.Statisticalhypothesistestingisakeytechniqueoffrequentiststatisticalinference.TheBayesianapproac

9、htohypothesistestingistobaserejectionofthehypothesisontheposteriorprobability.34 Otherapproachestoreachingadecisionbasedondataareavailableviadecisiontheoryandoptimaldecisions.Thecritical regionofahypothesistestisthesetofalloutcomeswhichcausethenullhypothesistoberejectedinfavorofthealternativehypothe

10、sis.ThecriticalregionisusuallydenotedbytheletteCr .One-sampletestsareappropriatewhenasampleisbeingcomparedtothepopulationfromahypothesis.Thepopulationcharacteristicsareknownfromtheoryorarecalculatedfromthepopulation.- 1 -/view/ce06e88d6aec0975f46527d3240c844769eaa00c.html1/10 4/15/2019概率論畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯（適用

11、于畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯+中英文對(duì)照）- 百度文庫(kù)Two-sampletestsareappropriateforcomparingtwosamples,typicallyexperimentalandcontrolsamplesfromascientificallycontrolledexperiment.Pairedtestsareappropriateforcomparingtwosampleswhereitisimpossibletocontrolimportantvariables.Ratherthancomparingtwosets,membersarepairedbetweensamp

12、lessothedifferencebetweenthemembersbecomesthesample.Typicallythemeanofthedifferencesisthencomparedtozero.Z-testsareappropriateforcomparingmeansunderstringentconditionsregardingnormalityandaknownstandarddeviation.T-tests areappropriate for comparing means under relaxed conditions (less isassumed).Tes

13、tsofproportionsareanalogoustotestsofmeans(the50%proportion).Chi-squaredtestsusethesamecalculationsandthesameprobabilitydistributionfordifferentapplications:Chi-squaredtestsforvarianceareusedtodeterminewhetheranormalpopulationhasaspecifiedvariance.Thenullhypothesisisthatitdoes.Chi-squaredtestsofindep

14、endenceareusedfordecidingwhethertwovariablesareassociatedorareindependent.Thevariablesarecategoricalratherthannumeric.Itcanbeusedtodecidewhetherleft-handednessiscorrelatedwithlibertarianpolitics(ornot).Thenullhypothesisisthatthevariablesareindependent.Thenumbersusedinthecalculationaretheobservedande

15、xpectedfrequenciesofoccurrence(fromcontingencytables).Chi-squaredgoodnessoffittestsareusedtodeterminetheadequacyofcurvesfittodata.Thenullhypothesisisthatthecurvefitisadequate.Itiscommontodeterminecurveshapestominimizethemeansquareerror,soitisappropriatethatthegoodness-of-fitcalculationsumsthesquared

16、errors.F-tests(analysisofvariance,ANOVA)arecommonlyusedwhendecidingwhethergroupingsofdatabycategoryaremeaningful.Ifthevarianceoftestscoresoftheleft-handedinaclassismuchsmallerthanthevarianceofthewholeclass,thenitmaybeusefultostudyleftiesasagroup.Thenullhypothesisisthattwovariancesarethesame-sothepro

17、posedgroupingisnotmeaningful.The testing processInthestatisticalliterature,statisticalhypothesistestingplaysafundamentalrole.Theusuallineofreasoningisasfollows:1. Thereisaninitialresearchhypothesisofwhichthetruthisunknown.2. Thefirststepistostatetherelevantnull and alternative hypotheses.Thisisimpor

18、tantasmis-statingthehypotheseswillmuddytherestoftheprocess.Specifically,thenullhypothesisallowsattachinganattribute:itshouldbechoseninsuchawaythatitallowsustoconcludewhetherthealternativehypothesiscan9eitherbeacceptedorstaysundecidedasitwasbeforethetest.3. Thesecondstepistoconsiderthestatisticalassu

19、mptionsbeingmadeaboutthesample in doing the test; for example, assumptions about the statisticalindependenceorabouttheformofthedistributionsoftheobservations.Thisis- 2 -/view/ce06e88d6aec0975f46527d3240c844769eaa00c.html2/10 4/15/2019概率論畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯（適用于畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯+中英文對(duì)照）- 百度文庫(kù)equallyimportantasinvalidassum

20、ptionswillmeanthattheresultsofthetestareinvalid.4. Decidewhichtestisappropriate,andstatetherelevt easnttstatisticT.5. Derivethedistributionoftheteststatisticunderthenullhypothesisfromtheassumptions.Instandardcasesthiswillbewaell-knownresult.ForexampletheteststatisticmayfollowaStudentstdistributionor

21、anormaldistribution.6. Selectasignificancelevel(),aprobabilitythresholdbelowwhichthenullhypothesiswillberejected.Commonvaluesare5%and1%.7. ThedistributionoftheteststatisticunderthenullhypothesispartitionsthepossiblevaluesofTintothoseforwhichthenull-hypothesisisrejected,thesocalledcriticalregion,andt

22、hoseforwhichitisnot.Theprobabilityofthecriticalreg.ionis8. Computefromtheobservationstheobservedvaltue oftheteststatistiTc.obs9. Decidetoeitherfail to reject thenullhypothesisorreject itinfavorofthealternative.ThedecisionruleistorejectthenullhypothesisH iftheobserved0valuetobs isinthecriticalregion,

23、andtoacceptorfailtorejectthehypothesisotherwise.Use and ImportanceStatisticsarehelpfulinanalyzingmostcollectionsofdata.Thisisequallytrueofhypothesistestingwhichcanjustifyconclusionsevenwhennoscientifictheoryexists.7Realworldapplicationsofhypothesistestinginclude:Testingwhethermorementhanwomensufferf

24、romnightmaresEstablishingauthorshipofdocumentsEvaluatingtheeffectofthefullmoononbehaviorDeterminingtherangeatwhichabatcandetectaninsectbyechoDecidingwhetherhospitalcarpetingresultsinmoreinfectionsSelectingthebestmeanstostopsmokingCheckingwhetherbumperstickersreflectcarownerbehaviorTestingtheclaimsof

25、handwritinganalystsStatisticalhypothesistestingplaysanimportantroleinthewholeofstatisticsandinstatisticalinference.Forexample,Lehmann(1992)inareviewofthefundamentalpaperbyNeymanandPearson(1933)saysN:evertheless,despitetheirshortcomings,thenewparadigmformulatedinthe1933paper,andthemanydevelopmentscar

26、riedoutwithinitsframeworkcontinuetoplayacentralroleinboththetheoryandpracticeofstatisticsandcanbeexpectedtodosointheforeseeablefuture.Significancetestinghasbeenthefavoredstatisticaltoolinsomeexperimentalsocialsciences(over90%ofarticlesintheJournalofAppliedPsychologyduringtheearly1990s).8 Otherfields

27、havefavoredtheestimationofparameters.Editorsoftenconsidersignificance as a criterion for the publication of scientific conclusions based onexperimentswithstatisticalresults.CautionsThesuccessfulhypothesistestisassociatedwithaprobabilityandatype-Ierrorrate.Theconclusionmightbewrong.- 3 -/view/ce06e88

28、d6aec0975f46527d3240c844769eaa00c.html3/10 4/15/2019概率論畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯（適用于畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯+中英文對(duì)照）- 百度文庫(kù)Theconclusionofthetestisonlyassolidasthesampleuponwhichitisbased.Thedesignof the experiment is critical. A number of unexpected effects have been observedincluding:TheCleverHanseffect.Ahorseappearedtobecapableofd

29、oingsimplearithmetic.The Hawthorne effect. Industrial workers were more productive in betterillumination,andmostproductiveinworse.ThePlaceboeffect.Pillswithnomedicallyactiveingredientswereremarkablyeffective.Astatisticalanalysisofmisleadingdataproducesmisleadingconclusions.Theissueofdataqualitycanbe

30、moresubtle.Inforecastingforexample,thereisnoagreementonameasureofforecastaccuracy.Intheabsenceofaconsensusmeasurement,nodecisionbasedonmeasurementswillbewithoutcontroversy.ThebookHowtoLiewithStatisticsisthemostpopularbookonstatisticseverpublished.28Itdoesnotmuchconsiderhypothesistesting,butitscautio

31、nsareapplicable,including:Manyclaimsaremadeonthebasisofsamplestoosmalltoconvince.Ifareportdoesnotmentionsamplesize,bedoubtful.Hypothesistestingactsasafilterofstatisticalconclusions;Onlythoseresultsmeetingaprobabilitythresholdarepublishable.Economicsalascotsasapublicationfilter;Onlythoseresultsfavora

32、bletotheauthorandfundingsourcemaybesubmittedforpublication.Theimpactoffilteringonpublicationistermedpublicationbias.Arelatedproblemisthatofmultipletesting(sometimeslinkedtodatamining),inwhichavarietyoftestsforavarietyofpossibleeffectsareappliedtoasingledatasetandonlythoseyieldingasignificantresultar

33、ereported.Thosemakingcriticaldecisionsbasedontheresultsofahypothesistestareprudenttolookatthedetailsratherthantheconclusionalone.Inthephysicalsciencesmostresultsarefully accepted only when independently confirmed. The general adviceconcerningstatisticsis,Figuresneverlie,butliarsfigure(anonymous).Con

34、troversySincesignificancetestswerefirstpopularizedmanyobjectionshavebeenvoicedbyprominentandrespectedstatisticians.Thevolumeofcriticismandrebuttalhasfilledbookswithlanguageseldomusedinthescholarlydebateofadrysubject.Muchofthecriticismwaspublishedmorethan40yearsago.Thefiresofcontroversyhaveburnedhott

35、estinthefieldofexperimentalpsychology.Nickersonsurveyedtheissuesintheyear2000.Heincluded300referencesandreported20criticismsandalmostasmanyrecommendations,alternatives and supplements. The following section greatly condenses Nickersonsdiscussion,omittingmanyissues.Results of the controversyThe contr

36、oversy has produced several results. The American Psychological10Associationhasstrengtheneditsstatisticalreportingrequirementsafterreview,medicaljournalpublishershaverecognizedtheobligationtopublishsomeresultsthatarenot.statisticallysignificanttocombatpublicationbias andajournal(Journal of Articles

37、inSupport of the Null Hypothesis)hasbeencreatedtopublishsuchresultsexclusively.- 4 -/view/ce06e88d6aec0975f46527d3240c844769eaa00c.html4/10 4/15/2019概率論畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯（適用于畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯+中英文對(duì)照）- 百度文庫(kù)Textbookshaveaddedsomecautionsandincreasedcoverageofthetoolsnecessarytoestimatethesizeofthesamplerequiredtoproduces

38、ignificantresults.Majororganizationshavenotabandoneduseofsignificancetestsalthoughtheyhavediscusseddoingso.References1R.A.Fisher(1925).StatisticalMethodsforResearchWorkers,Edinburgh:OliverandBoyd,1925,p.43.2 Cramer, Duncan; Dennis Howitt (2004). The Sage Dictionary of Statistics. p.76.ISBN0-7619-413

39、8-X.3Schervish,M(1996)TheoryofStatistics,p.218.SpringerISBN0-387-94546-64Kaye,DavidH.;Freedman,DavidA.(2011).ReferenceGuideonStatistics.Referencemanualonscientificevidence(3rded.).Eagan,MNWashington,D.C:WestNationalAcademiesPress.p.259.ISBN978-0-309-21421-6.5C.S.Peirce(August1878).Illustrationsofthe

40、LogicofScienceVI:Deduction,Induction,andHypothesis.PopularScienceMonthly13.6Fisher,SirRonaldA.(1956)1935.MathematicsofaLadyTastingTea.InJamesRoyNewman.The World of Mathematics, volume 3 Design of Experiments. Courier Dover Publications.ISBN978-0-486-41151-4.7Box,JoanFisher(1978).R.A.Fisher, The Life

41、 of a Scientist. New York: Wiley. p.134.ISBN0-471-09300-98Lehmann,E.L.;Romano,JosephP.(2005).TestingStatisticalHypotheses(3Eed.).NewYork:Springer.ISBN0-387-98864-5.9 Adr,J.H. (2008). Chapter 12: Modelling. In H.J. Adr & G.J. Mellenbergh (Eds.) (withcontributionsbyD.J.Hand),AdvisingonResearchMethods:

42、Aconsultantscompanion(pp2.0198)3.Huizen,TheNetherlands:JohannesvanKesselPublishing10 Triola, Mario (2001). Elementary statistics (8 ed.). Boston: Addison-Wesley. p.388.ISBN0-201-61477-4.- 5 -/view/ce06e88d6aec0975f46527d3240c844769eaa00c.html5/10 4/15/2019概率論畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯（適用于畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯+中英文對(duì)照）- 百度文庫(kù)American

43、 Journal of Mathematic, s2007,126(5):2387-2425統(tǒng)計(jì)假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)AdrianaAlbu，LoredanaUngureanuPolitehnicaUniversityTimisoara,adrianaaaut.utt.roPolitehnicaUniversityTimisoara,loredanauaut.utt.ro摘要在這篇文章中，我們給出統(tǒng)計(jì)假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)的貝葉斯檢驗(yàn)，介紹了檢驗(yàn)理論和其過(guò)程。提及了假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)在現(xiàn)實(shí)世界的一些應(yīng)用和重要性，以及成功的檢驗(yàn)的注意事項(xiàng)。關(guān)鍵詞 貝葉斯假設(shè)檢驗(yàn);貝葉斯推理;顯著性檢驗(yàn)引言統(tǒng)計(jì)假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)是一種利用數(shù)據(jù)做決策的方法，無(wú)論

44、是在有控制的實(shí)驗(yàn)還是在沒(méi)有控制的觀察性研究中都有實(shí)用。在統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)中，如果一個(gè)結(jié)果不可能根據(jù)預(yù)先確定的閾值的概率，顯著性水平，單獨(dú)的發(fā)生，那么就說(shuō)這個(gè)結(jié)果有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義。那句“有意義的測(cè)試”是由羅納德費(fèi)希爾所說(shuō)的：“這種關(guān)鍵測(cè)試可能被稱為有意義的測(cè)試，當(dāng)這種測(cè)試是可接受的，并且我們可以發(fā)現(xiàn)另一個(gè)例子和第一個(gè)有顯著性的不同。假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)有時(shí)也被稱為驗(yàn)證性數(shù)據(jù)分析 ，它與探索性數(shù)據(jù)分析相對(duì)而言。在頻率的概率中，這些決定幾乎總是用零假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)。有些測(cè)試回答了這個(gè)問(wèn)題 ，聲稱零假設(shè)是正確的，它是一個(gè)觀測(cè)一個(gè)測(cè)試統(tǒng)計(jì)價(jià)值至少是一個(gè)是否確實(shí)被觀測(cè)到的價(jià)值的概率。更普遍的，他們?cè)谶M(jìn)行實(shí)驗(yàn)之前對(duì)問(wèn)題提出一個(gè)結(jié)論再根據(jù)實(shí)驗(yàn)

45、的結(jié)果和一定的概率判斷所推測(cè)的結(jié)論是否正確。假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)的用途之一就是去決定實(shí)驗(yàn)的結(jié)果是否有足夠得信息去懷疑傳統(tǒng)的智慧。統(tǒng)計(jì)假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)時(shí)概率統(tǒng)計(jì)涉及的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)，假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)的貝葉斯方法是立足于拒絕后驗(yàn)概率的假設(shè)。其他的方法，通過(guò)決策理論和最優(yōu)決策達(dá)到通過(guò)數(shù)據(jù)分析得出結(jié)論的目的。其他地區(qū)的假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)的關(guān)鍵是贊成替代假說(shuō)拒絕零假設(shè)的所有結(jié)果形成集合，通常有字母表示 C 臨界域。介紹當(dāng)一個(gè)樣本正在同來(lái)自假設(shè)的人口對(duì)比時(shí)，單個(gè)樣本測(cè)試是可取的，人口的特征通過(guò)理論可知或通過(guò)人口能夠被計(jì)算。兩個(gè)樣本測(cè)試用于比較兩個(gè)樣本，通?？茖W(xué)的控制實(shí)驗(yàn)實(shí)驗(yàn)組和對(duì)照組樣品。當(dāng)- 6 -/view/ce06e88d6aec0975f4

46、6527d3240c844769eaa00c.html6/10 4/15/2019概率論畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯（適用于畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯+中英文對(duì)照）- 百度文庫(kù)不可能控制重要變量時(shí)，配對(duì)測(cè)試適用于比較兩個(gè)樣本。而不是比較兩套，樣本成員進(jìn)行配對(duì)以至于成員之間的不同變成樣本。通常情況下成員之間的差異相比為零。常態(tài)和已知標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差的條件下比較適合應(yīng)用 Z-測(cè)試。T-檢驗(yàn)是適用于比較寬松的條件 下（較少假定）的手段。類似的測(cè)試手段（50%的比例）的測(cè)試。卡方檢驗(yàn)，適用相同的計(jì)算和不同的應(yīng)用程序相同的概率分布：卡方檢驗(yàn)用于檢驗(yàn)正常人群中是否有一個(gè)指定的方差，零假設(shè)就是這個(gè)方差?？ǚ姜?dú)立性測(cè)試用于決定是否兩個(gè)變量關(guān)

47、聯(lián)或者是獨(dú)立的。零假設(shè)變量是獨(dú)立的。在計(jì)算中使用觀察的數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)計(jì)事件的發(fā)生頻率。卡方檢驗(yàn)用來(lái)確定適合數(shù)據(jù)的曲線充足。零假設(shè)是，曲線擬合是足夠的。確定曲線形狀，以盡量減少均方誤差這是常見(jiàn)的。所以它是適當(dāng)?shù)暮玫臄M合計(jì)算方差的方法。F 檢驗(yàn)（方差分析）是常用的，在決定是否按類別的數(shù)據(jù)分組是有意義的。如果左手中的一類考試成績(jī)的差異是比全班方差小，那么它可能是有用的，零假設(shè)兩個(gè)差異是相同的，因此，擬合的分組是沒(méi)有意義的。測(cè)試的過(guò)程在統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)中統(tǒng)計(jì)假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)做了一個(gè)基礎(chǔ)的角色。通常的推理思路是下面這樣的：1. 有一個(gè)初步的研究假說(shuō)，總體情況是未知的。2. 第一步是去聲明相關(guān)的零假設(shè)和被擇假設(shè)。具體來(lái)說(shuō)，零假設(shè)允

48、許附加屬性：應(yīng)該選擇這樣一種方式，它可以讓我們得出結(jié)論，是否可以被接受的替代假說(shuō)或保持未定，因?yàn)樗窃跍y(cè)試之前定下的。3. 第二步是去考慮統(tǒng)計(jì)假說(shuō)關(guān)于正在做的測(cè)試的統(tǒng)計(jì)假設(shè)的制定，舉個(gè)例子，關(guān)于統(tǒng)計(jì)獨(dú)立性的假設(shè)或關(guān)于觀測(cè)值的分配形式的假設(shè)。具體的說(shuō)，這是同樣重要的因?yàn)闊o(wú)效的假設(shè)將意味著測(cè)試結(jié)果是無(wú)效的。4. 決定哪個(gè)測(cè)試是適當(dāng)?shù)?，說(shuō)明有關(guān)的檢驗(yàn)統(tǒng)計(jì)量 T。5. 從零假設(shè)的假設(shè)下得出的檢驗(yàn)統(tǒng)計(jì)量的分布，在標(biāo)準(zhǔn)情況下，這將是一個(gè)眾所周知的結(jié)果。檢驗(yàn)統(tǒng)計(jì)量可以按照學(xué)生的 t 分布或正態(tài)分布。6. 選擇一個(gè)顯著性水平（a），將拒絕零假設(shè)的概率置于他之下，一般選擇5%和1%。7. 零假設(shè)下統(tǒng)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)的分布

49、把 的可能值分布到零假設(shè)被拒絕的區(qū)域，這就是關(guān)鍵域，他不是 的可能值，臨界域的概率是8. 觀測(cè)計(jì)算檢驗(yàn)統(tǒng)計(jì)量 的觀測(cè)值 。9. 決定是否拒絕零假設(shè)接受被擇假設(shè)。如果觀測(cè)時(shí)值落在了臨界域則拒絕零假設(shè) H，O接受或拒絕其他的假設(shè)。應(yīng)用和重要性假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)對(duì)于分析大部分的收集的數(shù)據(jù)是有幫助的。這同樣是真正可以證明的結(jié)論，即使沒(méi)有科學(xué)理論存在的假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)。- 7 -/view/ce06e88d6aec0975f46527d3240c844769eaa00c.html7/10 4/15/2019概率論畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯（適用于畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯+中英文對(duì)照）- 百度文庫(kù)假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)現(xiàn)實(shí)世界的應(yīng)用包括：測(cè)試是否男性比女

50、性更容易做惡夢(mèng)。建立文件的著作權(quán)。評(píng)估滿月對(duì)行為的影響。確定蝙蝠可以用回聲捕捉昆蟲(chóng)的范圍。確定是否醫(yī)院的地毯導(dǎo)致了更多的感染。選擇戒煙的最佳手段。檢查是否保險(xiǎn)杠貼紙反應(yīng)車主的行為。測(cè)試筆跡分析師的索賠。統(tǒng)計(jì)假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)在整個(gè)統(tǒng)計(jì)和統(tǒng)計(jì)推斷中起著重要的作用。舉個(gè)例子，萊曼（1992）在關(guān)于奈曼和Pearson（1933）的一篇基礎(chǔ)文件的審查中說(shuō)：“不過(guò)，盡管他們的缺點(diǎn)，一個(gè)新的典范在 1993 年的文件中形成，許多新的發(fā)展著利用它的框架繼續(xù)在統(tǒng)計(jì)的理論和實(shí)踐中發(fā)揮著中心作用，并可以期望在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的將來(lái)也會(huì)這樣做。顯著性檢驗(yàn)時(shí)一直青睞的統(tǒng)計(jì)工具，在一些實(shí)驗(yàn)性的社會(huì)學(xué)（超過(guò) 90%，在 20世紀(jì) 90 年

51、代初，在應(yīng)用心里學(xué)雜志上的文章）等領(lǐng)域有利于參數(shù)的統(tǒng)計(jì)，編輯經(jīng)常考慮出版基于實(shí)驗(yàn)的統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果的科學(xué)結(jié)論出版的意義。注意事項(xiàng)成功的假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)是與概率和第一類錯(cuò)誤率相聯(lián)系的，結(jié)論可能是錯(cuò)誤的。檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)論是基于它所使用的樣本的，樣本不同結(jié)果可能不同，這個(gè)設(shè)計(jì)是實(shí)驗(yàn)的核心，已觀測(cè)到的一些意想不到的效果包括：聰明的漢斯效果。一匹馬似乎是能夠做簡(jiǎn)單的算術(shù)題?；羲鞫餍Ч?。產(chǎn)業(yè)工人更多更好的照明生產(chǎn)，最糟糕的生產(chǎn)。安慰劑效應(yīng)。沒(méi)有醫(yī)療活性成分的藥片是非常有效的。一個(gè)誤導(dǎo)性的數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析產(chǎn)生誤導(dǎo)性的結(jié)論。數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量問(wèn)題，可以更加微妙。例如，在預(yù)測(cè)中，有沒(méi)有協(xié)議的預(yù)報(bào)準(zhǔn)確率的措施。在一個(gè)共識(shí)測(cè)量情況下，沒(méi)有基于測(cè)量的決

52、定是毫無(wú)爭(zhēng)議的。這本書(shū)如何用統(tǒng)計(jì)說(shuō)謊是曾經(jīng)出版最流行的一本關(guān)于統(tǒng)計(jì)的書(shū)，它沒(méi)有過(guò)多的考慮假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)，但它的注意事項(xiàng)是適用的，包括：一些論斷是在樣本太小不能說(shuō)服問(wèn)題的情況下做出的，如果報(bào)告沒(méi)提到樣本大小是值得懷疑的。假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)充當(dāng)統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)論的過(guò)濾器，只有符合概率閥值的結(jié)果是能發(fā)布的。經(jīng)濟(jì)還充當(dāng)出版物的過(guò)濾器，只有那些有利于作者和資金來(lái)源的結(jié)果可能會(huì)被提交出版。出版物過(guò)濾器的影響被稱為出版偏見(jiàn)。一個(gè)相關(guān)的問(wèn)題是多次測(cè)試（有時(shí)與數(shù)據(jù)挖掘相聯(lián)系），各種測(cè)試各種產(chǎn)生的影響被應(yīng)用到一個(gè)單獨(dú)的數(shù)據(jù)集，僅僅那些有意義的結(jié)果能夠被報(bào)道。- 8 -/view/ce06e88d6aec0975f46527d3240c844769eaa00c.html8/10 4/15/2019概率論畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯（適用于畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯+中英文對(duì)照）- 百度文庫(kù)基于假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果的關(guān)鍵決策更著重細(xì)節(jié)的觀察而不僅僅是結(jié)論本身。在物理科學(xué)中，大部分結(jié)果只有被獨(dú)立證實(shí)時(shí)才能被完全接受。關(guān)于統(tǒng)計(jì)通常的建議是，數(shù)字不會(huì)說(shuō)謊，但騙子會(huì)數(shù)字。爭(zhēng)議由于顯著性檢驗(yàn)，首先由著名的受人尊敬的統(tǒng)計(jì)人員的反對(duì)