越南與科技供應(yīng)鏈：越南會是下一個主要的科技中心

1、The Credit Suisse Connections Series leverages our exceptional breadth of macro and micro research to deliver incisive cross-sector and cross-border thematic insights for our clients.Research Analysts Farhan Rizvi,CFA65 62123036 HYPERLINK mailto:farhan.rizvi KimNguyen65 62128863 HYPERLINK mailto:kim

2、.nguyen KeonHan82 2 37073740 HYPERLINK mailto:keon.han ThompsonWu886 2 27156386 HYPERLINK mailto:thompson.wu KynaWong852 21016950 HYPERLINK mailto:kyna.wong 21 March 2019 Asia Pacific/Vietnam Equity Research Multi IndustryVietnam and the tech supply chainTHEMETHEMEIs Vietnam the next major tech hub?

3、Figure 1: Key takeaways from the CS tech company surveysCountryKey survey conclusionsImplications for VietnamKoreaVietnams key attractions are cheap labour, tax incentives & govt.supportCorporates will continue to expandcapacityKorea to continue to lead FDIflowsSamsung and LG remain committed to fut

4、ureinvestmentsTaiwanNo plans to shift ChinacapacityChina still offers most mature supplychainManufacturers exploring new destinations but Vietnam faces strong regionalcompetitionOnly 5-10% of capex allocation outside Greater China over2019-21Potential incremental tech FDItoVietnam of US$400-600 mnCh

5、inaLabour-intensive simple-assembly products more suitable forVietnamMore companies conducting feasibilityforsetting up assembly lines15-20% of capex likely to be allocated overseas over the next 3yearsPotential incremental FDI toVietnamof US$1.5-1.8bnSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesThe

6、 rise in labour costs in China and need for an alternative manufacturing base has led to the emergence of Vietnam as a potential tech manufacturing hub. In this report, CS Vietnam research and the Asia technology team come together to explore the viability of Vietnam as a tech manufacturing base.A a

7、s a FDI Its as a is & its do of by by CS as to In by no by to to to as for Limited incremental positives in the offing. We see continued FDI from Korea tech based on our surveys; however, incremental FDI from Greater China tech is likely to be more modest. CS estimates US$1.5-2.4 bn (2- 4%) of incre

8、mental tech FDI from Greater China by 2021. We highlight companies exposed to the FDI theme, including KBC, SNZ, HT1, CTD, CII, HT1, GMD and HPG. HT1, CII and HPG also screen well on CS HOLT. Second-order impact in the form of higher discretionary spending should benefit MWG, VRE and VPB (allOUTPERF

9、ORM).DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Creditto do in its As a be the a of of as a in Focus charts and tablesFigure 2: Key reasons for Vietnams attractivenes

10、s as a major manufacturing and investment destinationKey attractions of VietnamCS commentsStrategic locationLocated at the centre of ASEAN with close proximity to China and Singapore. Its long 3,260 km coastline provides direct access to South China Sea & major shipping routes.Dedicated industrial a

11、nd economic zones3 key economic zones (North, Central and South) with dedicated industrial landbank of 83k ha & 35k ha of new capacity by 2021.Strong infrastructure spendingRobust infrastructure spending 6.3% of GDP on average over the past 5 years more than twice the average in ASEAN.Attractive tax

12、 incentives and tariffsPreferential tax rate of 10-17% with 2-4 years of tax exemption and up to 50% reduction for another 4 years.Land rental incentivesGenerous land rental exemption period from 3 years to the whole rent period depending on type of investment and project location.Low cost hardworki

13、ng labour forceA young, hardworking and cheap labour force (52% of people within working age) and one of the lowest hourly minimum wages in the region of US$5.1 below Cambodia (US$6.0), India (US$6.0), Indonesia (US$6.1), Philippines (US$7.9) and China (US$8.6)Source: Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 3

14、: Korea has led FDI flows since 2012 driven by tech majors Samsung and LGFigure 4: helping Vietnams share of global merchandised exports to double since201240.035.0Registered FDI by country (US $bn)1.40%1.20%1.10%1.21%1.10%1.21%0.98%0.79%0.62%0.70%0.53%0.020122013201420152016201720180.20%20112012201

15、320142015201620172018JapanKoreaSingaporeHongkongChinaOtherSource: Vietnam Ministry of PlanningandInvestmentSource: WTOFigure 5: US$1.5-2.4 bn of incremental FDI from Greater China tech over the next 3yearsUS$ bn 80.0Figure 6: Companies exposed to the secular FDI trend and beneficiaries of discretion

16、aryspending 1.9ReutersTickerReutersTickerMarket CapUS$mn)6Mmn)Free Float(%)AvailableFOL room (%)P/E (x)19E20EROE (%)19E20ENon covered companies exposed to FDIACV.HNO8,2570.244.601.029.327.820.919.7HPG.HM2,9208.0053.513.514.0CTD.HM4680.9985.617.816.3GMD.HM3561.0060.80-17.214.717.816.3KBC.HM

17、3141.6475.438.18.3SNZ.HNO2920.0020.460.5n.an.an.an.aHT1.HM2590.1919.9643.08.58.013.514.0CII.HM2660.9683.3916.515.5Beneficiaries of rising discretionary spending - CS CoveredVRE.HM3,8102.5543.016.828.623.29.810.8MWG.HM1,7043.1187.1-11.19.529.226.6VPB.HM2,3822.3569.0-17.138.552.466.938.552.4

18、66.92016-182019-21EImplementedImplementedFDIOption value - Greater ChinatechSource Vietnam Ministry of Planning and Investment, CreditSuisseestimatesSource: Bloomberg Professional Service, I/B/E/S, Credit SuisseestimatesVietnam is a major FDI and export hubStrategic location, generous incentives and

19、 low labour costs are key attractionsSouth Korea is large source of FDI since 2012 (24% contribution)Our surveys reveal continued investment by Korean techGreater China tech has no plans to relocate China capacityBut rising costs has led to capacity expansion in ASEAN andIndiaChinese tech views simp

20、le assembly production as more suitable forVietnamCS Research estimates US$1.5-2.4 bn of incremental FDI from Greater China techCompanies exposed to the FDI theme include: KBC, SNZ, CTD, CII, HT1 & HPGIs Vietnam the next major tech hub?What makes Vietnam an FDI magnet?Vietnam has emerged as a major

21、investment and export destination in the region, attracting FDI across multiple industries from manufacturing and real estate to energy and retail, etc. The cumulative implemented FDI since 2012 is US$101 bn (7% of GDP) with manufacturing leading the way (55%), followed by real estate (11%) and ener

22、gy (9%). This has led to the rapid development of the industrial land market with more than 83,000 ha of land currently dedicated to industrial parks (from just 335 ha in the 1980s) with 30,000- 35,000 ha of landbank to be added by 2021 (CBRE & JLL). Vietnams attractiveness as a major manufacturing

23、and export hub is driven by: (1) dedicated industrial and economic zones; (2) its strategic location; (3) robust infra spending; (4) investment incentives for tax and tariffs; (5) land rental incentives; and (6) a hardworking labour force at competitive costs.Decoding the Korean tech experienceSouth

24、 Korea remains the largest source of FDI for Vietnam, contributing more than US$60 bn in foreign direct investment (FDI) to date (24% of total registered FDI since 2012) led by Samsung electronics (US$18 bn to date). In order to understand the experiences of some of the largest Korean tech firms and

25、 their future investment strategies in Vietnam, the CS Korea tech research conducted company surveys with five of the largest corporates. The three key takeaways are: (1) the key reasons for choosing Vietnam were availability of cheap labour, attractive tax incentives and strong government support;

26、(2) corporates are largely satisfied with operations and would continue to expand production particularly to new sites; and (3) US-China trade tensions have a fairly moderate impact on their outlook for Vietnam as most of them had already started shifting production to Vietnam ahead of thesedevelopm

27、ents.Will Greater China tech relocate?While Korea tech has been investing aggressively for years, investments from Greater China have been limited. The CS Greater China technology research conducted surveys with a number of tech companies to understand whether they are actively exploring the option

28、to diversify manufacturing to Vietnam. The key conclusions from the survey are: (1) Taiwan ODMs have no plans to physically shift China manufacturing capacity elsewhere, as China still offers the most mature and comprehensive supply chain; (2) labour supply shortages, rising costs and US-China trade

29、 tariffs have led manufacturers to continue to explore new destinations for expansion, but Vietnam faces strong competition from India;Chinese manufacturers see labour-intensive and simple assembly production as more suitable with several Apple supply chain companies operational and (4) more compani

30、es areevaluatingfeasibilitytosetupproductionlinesinVietnamandelsewhereinASEAN.Limited incremental FDI from new sourcesBased on the conclusions of our company surveys, we see continued FDI momentum in Vietnam from Korea tech; however, incremental flows from Greater China are likely to be more modest.

31、 CS Research estimates US$1.5-2.4 bn of incremental FDI flows from Greater China tech over the next three years (2-4% of implemented FDI) with the broad structural FDI story continuing over the medium to long term. We highlight some non- covered companies which are exposed to the FDI theme including

32、 industrial parks (KBC, SNZ), construction and cements (CTD, CII, HT1), ports (GMD), steel (HPG), and aviation (ACV). HT1, CII and HPG also rank well on HOLT. A few of these names have limited free float and liquidity, with SNZ and ACV being OTC listed (UPCOM). Second-order impact in the form of hig

33、her discretionary spending should benefit MWG, VRE and VPB. All three stocks are ratedOUTPERFORM.Table of contents HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 Focus chartsandtables2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Is Vietnam the next majortechhub?3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 What makes Vietnam anFDI magnet?3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 D

34、ecoding the Koreantechexperience3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Will Greater Chinatech relocate?3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Limited incremental FDI fromnewsources3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Strategic location with stronggrowthopportunity10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Robustinfrastructurespending11 HYPERLINK l _bookma

35、rk8 Wide ranging FTAs helping to accelerateglobalintegration16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Koreas NewSouthernPolicy22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 GravitatingtowardsVietnam23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Why Samsung isleavingChina?24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Findings from the CS Korea techresearchsurveys25 HYPERLIN

36、K l _bookmark13 Taiwan ODM not interested in relocatingfromChina26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Chinesemanufacturersactivelyseekingcapacityexpansionforcableassembly.27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Credit SuisseHOLT analysis HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 APPENDIX I Questionnaire with Koreantechnologycompanies42 HYPE

37、RLINK l _bookmark17 APPENDIX II Taiwan technologycompaniesquestionnaire44 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 APPENDIX III Questionnaire with Chinesetechnologycompanies46 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 CompanyA46 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 CompanyB46 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 CompanyC47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 CompanyD47 H

38、YPERLINK l _bookmark23 CompanyE48Vietnam has US$101bn (7% ofof FDI since2012What makes Vietnam an FDI magnet?Vietnam has emerged as a major investment and export destination in the region attracting FDI across multiple industries from manufacturing, real estate, energy, retail, IT etc. The cumulativ

39、e implemented FDI since 2012 is US$101 bn (7% of GDP) with manufacturing leading the way (55%) followed by real estate (11%) and energy (9%). This has led to the rapid development of the industrial land market over the years, with more than 83,000 ha of land currently dedicated to industrial parks a

40、cross three zones with30,000-35,000 ha of landbank to be added over the next 2-3 years (according to JLL Research). This compares with only 335 ha of industrial landbank 30 years ago. Vietnams attractiveness as a major manufacturing and export hub in ASEAN is driven by: (1) dedicated industrial and

41、economic zones; (2) strategic location; (3) robust infrastructure spending; (4) investment incentives particularly in area of tax concessions and tariffs; (5) attractive land rental incentives; and (6) a hardworking labour force with competitive cost structure.Figure 7: Robust FDI flows led bymanufa

42、cturingRegistered FDI by sector (US $bn)40.0Figure 8: with Korea and Japan the largest contributorsRegistered FDI by country (US $bn)40.035.035.030.030.025.025.020.020.015.015.010.010.05.05.00.020180.02018ManufacturingRealEstateWholesale &retailtradeITUtilitiesOtherJapanKoreaSingaporeHongkongChinaOt

43、herSource: Vietnam Ministry of PlanningandInvestmentSource: Vietnam Ministry of Planning andInvestmentFigure 9: FDI as % of GDP is the regions highest Figure 10: helping exports to continue outperforming theregion6.4%36.0%3.2%3.0%2.1%2.0%1.6%1.4%1.1%3.2%3.0%2.1%2.0%1.6%1.4%1.1%0.6%30.0%Exports Growt

44、h5.0%4.0%18.7%18.2%13.8%21.8%3.0% 15.3%10.6%9.0% 4.6%4.0%9.1%7.9%2.0%1.0%0.0%VNPHIDTHINCNKRTWVietnamNJAWeightedVietnamNJAWeighted3.3%2011201220132014201520162017-6.2%-6.2%Source: CEIC, Credit Suisseestimates(2017)Source: CEIC, Credit SuisseestimatesFigure 11: Vietnams exports byproducts2018Others Ot

45、hers 42%Handset components 20%Computers and electronic 12%Mechanical equipmentClothing 12%7%7%Vietnams industrial landbank is 83,000 ha, with 35,000 ha of new supply by 2021Source: GSOA fast developing industrial marketThe industrial market in Vietnam has developed considerably in recent years with

46、favourable locations near major transport hubs. According to JLL Research, the industrial landbank has grown exponentially from just 335 ha 30 years ago to more than 83,000 ha of landbank at present, with average occupancy of 73%. Given the rising FDI demand and potential positive effects of a struc

47、tural manufacturing shift from China, approximately 30,000-35,000 ha of new supply is expected to be added across the country over the next three years (CBRE).Industrial land bank (hectares)Figure 12: More than 83k ha of industrial landbank atpresentIndustrial land bank (hectares)Figure 13: growing

48、strongly over the past three decades90,000120,00075,000100,00060,00080,00045,00060,00030,00040,00015,00020,000-Industrial landIndustrial landbank(hectares)Occupancy(RHS)SouthTotal-1986199520002005201020182021ESource: JLL, CBRE, CreditSuisseestimatesSource: JLL, CBRE. Credit SuisseestimatesAccording

49、to JLL Research, the industrial land market in Vietnam is spread across threeThree key economic zones (North, Central & South) according to JLLNKEZ is dominated by the hi-tech industry and has developed a lot over the past decadekey economic zones: (1) the North Key Economic Zone (NKEZ); (2) the Cen

50、tral Key Economic Zone (CKEZ); and (3) the South Key Economic Zone (SKEZ). The South region was the first to be established focusing on traditional sectors such as textiles and apparel, machinery, metal products, rubber and plastics, etc. In contrast, the North region has attracted more high-tech in

51、dustries (computer equipment, electronics and optical products) given its close proximity to the Chinese supply chain. The central region has been more recently established and focuses on light industries such as food processing.North Vietnam Key Economic ZoneThe NKEZ comprises seven key areas namel

52、y, Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Bac Ninh, Thai Nguyen, Hung Yen, Vinh Phuc and Quang Ninh with a total landbank of 19,000 ha. Hanoi, Hai Phong and Bac Ninh are three key centres in the North region and have developed considerably over the past decade, attracting a lot of investment from high tech industries l

53、ooking for cheaper labour costs compared to China while maintaining close proximity to their Chinese supply chain. The majority of industrial parks (IPs) operating in the region are developed by local groups, such as Kinh Bac City, Viglacera Land and VID group, etc. with VSIP (Vietnam Singapore JV I

54、ndustrial Park), Thuan Thanh (Taiwan) and Nomura (Japan) the main international operators. The deep seaport city of Hai Phong is a major transport and investment centre with close proximity to China. Samsung is by far the single-largest investor, with estimated investment of more than US$18 bn to da

55、te (Vietnam Investment Agency).Figure 14: Key developers in theNorthregionFigure 15: Industry mix(NKEZ)Others 37%IDICO 2%Sumitomo CorpVSIP 13%Kinh Bac City 11%Viglacera Land Co., 7%VID Group 7%Rent-A-Port & InfraAsiaOther 35%Chemicals and ChemicalComputer, Electronic and Optical Products25%Machinery

56、 and Equipment 15%Fabricated metal products 12%6%5%3% Hoa Phat JSC Dai An JSC Sao Do JSC 6%5%4%Products Rubber and6% Plastic Products7%Source: JLL (As ofJune 2018)Source: JLL (As of June2018)Central Key Economic ZoneThe Central Zone is in the early stages of development focusing on light industriesT

57、he CKEZ comprises five provinces: Thua Thien Hue, Da Nang, Quang Nam, Quang Ngai and Binh Dinh, with development activity largely concentrated in Da Nang and Quang Nam. In comparison with the North and South region, the Central economic region is still at an early stage of development and shall offe

58、r a longer term investment opportunity as the North and South regions reach a mature stage. The majority of IPs in the region are developed by local groups, such as Saigon Investment Group and Ky Ha Chu Lai, with IPs in the Hue and Quang Ngai developed by local authorities. Similar to NKEZ, VSIP is

59、the major international operator in the region. In terms of industrial concentration, the region currently focuses on light industries such as foodprocessing.Figure 16: Keydevelopers(CKEZ)Figure 17: IndustrymixOthers 61%Saigon Invest GroupFood Processing 16%Other 43%Fabricated Metal Products 13%Othe

60、r non- metalic mineralFood Processing 16%Other 43%Fabricated Metal Products 13%Other non- metalic mineralPaperandproductsForest-11%products 10%7%Ky Ha Chu 4%CIZIDCO 4%Hoang Thinh 4%Binh Dinh 3%Viglacera Land 2%C&N VINAQISC2%Rubber and Plastic Products 7%Source: JLL (As ofJune 2018)Source: JLL (As of