中國(guó)粉末冶金結(jié)構(gòu)件的現(xiàn)狀和未來(lái)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)CurrentSt課件

1、中國(guó)粉末冶金結(jié)構(gòu)件的現(xiàn)狀和未來(lái)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)Current Status and Development Trend of Structural PM Part Production in China中國(guó)粉末冶金結(jié)構(gòu)件的現(xiàn)狀和未來(lái)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)Current S前 言 Foreword中國(guó)的粉末冶金結(jié)構(gòu)件生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域四十年來(lái)在國(guó)家產(chǎn)業(yè)政策護(hù)持下，經(jīng)歷了曲折和磨練，當(dāng)前已經(jīng)進(jìn)入高速發(fā)展期。雖然還在起步階段，但增長(zhǎng)速度超過(guò)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)。特別是我國(guó)加入WTO后，使本行業(yè)融入國(guó)際產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈，給行業(yè)內(nèi)的發(fā)展帶來(lái)了巨大的空間。隨之而來(lái)的是國(guó)外著名廠家的進(jìn)入以及行業(yè)內(nèi)部競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的加劇。然而不管行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)如何劇烈，新一輪的發(fā)展期必將

2、到來(lái)，而且業(yè)已來(lái)臨 。Under the support of national industry policy over 40 years, structual PM part production in China experienced ordeal and progress, now, it is replaced by a rapid growth period. Alough it is still at initial stage, the growth rate has already higher than that of Chinas GDP. The industry i

3、s becoming part of world industry chain after the entry of WTO, which attracts prestigious international player and intense domestic competition, however a new round of strong growth is inevitably coming, and already here.前 言 Foreword中國(guó)的粉末冶金結(jié)構(gòu)件生產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域一、回 顧I. Review一、回 顧I. Review前五年的高速發(fā)展 Rapid Growth of

4、 Past 5 Years指標(biāo)名稱(chēng)單位2000年2001年2002年2003年2004年年均增長(zhǎng)Growth工業(yè)產(chǎn)值Output Value萬(wàn)元10,000RMB11074214491117858720306220768717.02%銷(xiāo)售收入Sales萬(wàn)元10,000RMB93883.313261416498818953119218919.20%利 潤(rùn)Profit萬(wàn)元10,000RMB7670.8810115522190362311731.76%制品重量Weight噸Tonne366944960561361739008512723.40%主要粉末冶金結(jié)構(gòu)件生產(chǎn)廠家（34）主要經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)情況（見(jiàn)圖

5、）Production of major 34 manufacturers for the past five years前五年的高速發(fā)展 Rapid Growth of Past前五年的高速發(fā)展Rapid Growth of Past 5 Years主要粉末冶金結(jié)構(gòu)件生產(chǎn)廠家（34）前5年發(fā)展情況（見(jiàn)圖）Production of major 34 manufacturers for the past five years平均增長(zhǎng)19.1%前五年的高速發(fā)展Rapid Growth of Past 前五年的新增企業(yè)Newcomers of the Past 5 Years單位：家年均增長(zhǎng)速度1

6、0%這些廠家的出現(xiàn)使全國(guó)粉末冶金制品總量增加10%左右These newcomers makes Chinas PM production grow about 10%.其中：1億以上： 55000萬(wàn)以上：102000萬(wàn)以上：15Over 100 mil.RMB: 5Over 100 mil.RMB: 10Over 100 mil.RMB: 15前五年的新增企業(yè)Newcomers of the Past前五年的銷(xiāo)售量增長(zhǎng)Sales Growth in the Past 5 Years20%的新增銷(xiāo)售額來(lái)自原有的企業(yè)10%的新增銷(xiāo)售額來(lái)自新加入的企業(yè)新企業(yè)的加入使全國(guó)粉末冶金銷(xiāo)售總量每年增長(zhǎng)達(dá)3

7、0%以上Over 30% annual growth in sales前五年的銷(xiāo)售量增長(zhǎng)Sales Growth in the 1. 產(chǎn)品單一 Limited range of products 2. 規(guī)模小 Small scale3. 技術(shù)薄弱 Unadvanced technology4. 以低廉的中低檔產(chǎn)品惡性競(jìng)爭(zhēng) Winning the market by vicious price reduction5. 發(fā)展快 Rapid growth6. 機(jī)動(dòng)靈活 Flexible中國(guó)中小粉末冶金企業(yè)特點(diǎn)The Features of Chinas Middle and Small PM Com

8、panies1. 產(chǎn)品單一 Limited range of pro二、機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)II. Opportunity & Challenge二、機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)II. Opportunity & Chal本行業(yè)的機(jī)遇 Opportunity for the industry中國(guó)將成為國(guó)際產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈中的制造業(yè)大國(guó)，兼?zhèn)渚薮蟮氖袌?chǎng), 雄厚的制造能力及低廉的成本。 China will become a large manufacturer as part of international industry chain, with huge market, productive capacity and low

9、cost.中國(guó)汽車(chē)工業(yè)（粉末冶金制品最大的客戶(hù)）的發(fā)展將會(huì)給本行業(yè)帶來(lái)極大的機(jī)遇。 The strong growth of Chinas automotive industry (biggest customer for PM components) is bringing precious opportunity to PM business.3. 國(guó)際制造業(yè)正在加速向中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)移，粉末冶金制品的出口前景廣闊。 World manufacturing industry is accelerating outsourcing business to China, which means a br

10、ight future of export.本行業(yè)的機(jī)遇 Opportunity for the in汽車(chē)工業(yè)發(fā)展給行業(yè)帶來(lái)春天Automotive Industry Brings Spring to PM Industry2004年全國(guó)粉末冶金制品結(jié)構(gòu) Market Structure 2004中國(guó)汽車(chē)用粉末冶金零件與國(guó)外相差甚遠(yuǎn)，在轎車(chē)上的距離更遠(yuǎn)。Chinas automotive PM structrual part production is far from international level, especially passenger car. 全世界轎車(chē)年產(chǎn)4000萬(wàn)輛，而

11、中國(guó)轎車(chē)2004年達(dá)230萬(wàn)輛，占6%Chinas passenger car output in 2004 is only 2.3 mil, 6% of world output, 40 mil.汽車(chē)工業(yè)發(fā)展給行業(yè)帶來(lái)春天Automotive Indus 中國(guó)汽車(chē)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展政策出臺(tái)，有利于推動(dòng)實(shí)現(xiàn)自主開(kāi)發(fā)、自主發(fā)展，創(chuàng)立自主的品牌，實(shí)現(xiàn)國(guó)內(nèi)國(guó)外兩個(gè)市場(chǎng)并舉，在擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需的同時(shí)，開(kāi)拓國(guó)際市場(chǎng)，中國(guó)在不久將成為世界汽車(chē)大國(guó)The initiation of Chinas “Automotive Industry Development Policy” gives strong support to

12、independent product design, development and brand. It also encourages both domestic and oversea markets. China will become large automobile manufacturer in the near future.汽車(chē)工業(yè)的發(fā)展，給粉末冶金行業(yè)帶來(lái)了施展才能的空間（見(jiàn)圖）汽車(chē)發(fā)展給行業(yè)帶來(lái)春天 Automotive Industry Brings Spring to PM Industry 中國(guó)汽車(chē)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展政策出臺(tái)，有利于推動(dòng)實(shí)現(xiàn)自主開(kāi)著名整機(jī)廠希望粉末冶金結(jié)構(gòu)件本

13、土化OEMs are looking forward to localizing PM parts國(guó)內(nèi)轎車(chē)整機(jī)廠OEMs國(guó)產(chǎn)化比例Localization大眾 VW70%飛亞特 Fiat40%現(xiàn)代 Hyundai35%豐田 Toyota20%本田 Honda20%通用 GM10%福特 Ford1%國(guó)際著名汽車(chē)企業(yè)已大部分進(jìn)入中國(guó)，而粉末冶金結(jié)構(gòu)件國(guó)產(chǎn)化只有25%30%。Most world major OEMs have entered China, but PM structural part localization is only 25-30%. 著名整機(jī)廠希望粉末冶金結(jié)構(gòu)件本土化OEM

14、s are lo出口市場(chǎng) Export Market不要幾年隨著中國(guó)粉末冶金汽車(chē)零件出口批量的加大，有可能引發(fā)對(duì)國(guó)際價(jià)格體系的沖擊。Within couple of years, along with growing amout of Chinese PM exports, the world pricing system will be shocked.國(guó)際汽車(chē)零件的采購(gòu)機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)瞄準(zhǔn)中國(guó)，中國(guó)汽車(chē)用粉末冶金的價(jià)格只有國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的40-50%。汽車(chē)零部件的出口將成為本行業(yè)的一個(gè)重要市場(chǎng)。The purchasing departments of major OEMs worldwide are

15、aiming at China where PM component price is only 40-50% as high as international price. Oversea customers will become an important market to our industry.出口市場(chǎng) Export Market不要幾年隨著中國(guó)粉末冶挑戰(zhàn)和困難 Chanllenge & Obstacle中低端產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格惡性競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，某些零件平均每克制品甚至低于人民幣0.015元。 Cut-throat pricing competition on medium-low end pro

16、duct, some unit price is even lower than RMB0.015/g.2. 原材料的價(jià)格的高歌猛進(jìn)，主機(jī)廠的不斷壓價(jià)，利潤(rùn)空間受壓，我預(yù)計(jì)今年行業(yè)每噸制品平均利潤(rùn)要下降20%左右。 Roaring price rising of material and cost reduction pressure from OEM are squeezing the profit margin. I estimate that 20% downturn will be seen on profit this year.3. 目前國(guó)內(nèi)對(duì)高端汽車(chē)零件生產(chǎn)技術(shù)尚不成熟，因而這部

17、分市場(chǎng)可能暫時(shí)還是可望而不可及。 Chinas manufacturing technology for high end automotive components are not mature enough yet, so far we can only call it potential market.挑戰(zhàn)和困難 Chanllenge & Obstacle中低三、趨勢(shì)III. Trend三、趨勢(shì)III. Trend世界著名企業(yè)逐鹿中國(guó)（趨勢(shì)一）Trend I: International Players紛紛在國(guó)內(nèi)合資或獨(dú)資建立工廠，將在今后五年內(nèi)大顯身手。 They are formin

18、g JVs or sole companies, great influence will be seen in five years.由于中國(guó)汽車(chē)的需求量不斷攀升，各國(guó)列強(qiáng)紛紛登陸中國(guó)，現(xiàn)在正在進(jìn)入的和準(zhǔn)備進(jìn)入的有：They are coming:XXX （Korea）XXX（US）XXXX（US）XXXXX（Canada）XX（Japan）世界著名企業(yè)逐鹿中國(guó)（趨勢(shì)一）Trend I: Inter質(zhì)量求新高、價(jià)格創(chuàng)新低（趨勢(shì)二）Trend II: High Quality & Low Price平均價(jià)格2000年5分/克下降到3分/克左右，年均下降10%Average price:￥0.0

19、5/g in 2000 to ￥0.03/gAnnual reduction: 10% 用戶(hù)在產(chǎn)品配套過(guò)程中，不斷提出新的要求Voice of customers:行業(yè)內(nèi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力加強(qiáng)Intense competition主機(jī)廠不斷壓價(jià)Pricing press from OEMs新企業(yè)對(duì)老企業(yè)的挑戰(zhàn)Challenge from newcomers小企業(yè)對(duì)大企業(yè)的挑戰(zhàn)Challenge from small companies價(jià)格新低Low price汽車(chē)類(lèi)產(chǎn)品為例Automotive質(zhì)量新高High quality高精度、高密度要求High precision & density外觀要求Exce

20、llent appearance配套服務(wù)要求Product family質(zhì)量求新高、價(jià)格創(chuàng)新低（趨勢(shì)二）Trend II: Hig國(guó)產(chǎn)優(yōu)質(zhì)原材料將逐步替代進(jìn)口材料（趨勢(shì)三）Trend III: Quality Chinese Material will Replace Imports盈利空間縮小Less profit利潤(rùn)率 Profit 20%進(jìn)口原材料的價(jià)格一路上揚(yáng)，成品粉價(jià)格不斷跟著上升 (04年10月-05年3月)Rocketing price (Oct.04-Mar.05)60%27%100%鎳粉Nickel銅粉Copper鉬粉Molybdenum鐵粉Iron20%同等國(guó)內(nèi)外原材料價(jià)格

21、差Price gap between domestic and foreign material 國(guó)產(chǎn)優(yōu)質(zhì)原材料將逐步替代進(jìn)口材料（趨勢(shì)三）Trend II優(yōu)質(zhì)國(guó)產(chǎn)設(shè)備將被普遍采用（趨勢(shì)四）Trend IV: Quality Chinese Machines will be Universally Accepeted為消除降成本帶來(lái)的壓力從重視引進(jìn)設(shè)備到重視國(guó)產(chǎn)優(yōu)質(zhì)設(shè)備Cutting cost by using domestical machines進(jìn)口壓機(jī)和電爐十分昂貴 Expensive imported press and furnace2. 近幾年，國(guó)產(chǎn)壓機(jī)和電爐性能不斷提高 Qual

22、ity of domestic press and furnace has been continuously improved in recent years.3. 中低檔產(chǎn)品用國(guó)產(chǎn)壓機(jī)有成本優(yōu)勢(shì) Domestic press is favored to make middle-low products.4. 中國(guó)生產(chǎn)壓機(jī)的廠家從10家增加到到目前近30家 The number of Chinese press suppliers increased from 10 to 30國(guó)產(chǎn)同等性能和噸位的機(jī)械壓機(jī)價(jià)格是進(jìn)口壓機(jī)的三分之一Similar Chinese press with same

23、property and tonnage only costs 1/3 of imported press price.優(yōu)質(zhì)國(guó)產(chǎn)設(shè)備將被普遍采用（趨勢(shì)四）Trend IV: Qu高、中、低三類(lèi)產(chǎn)品自動(dòng)分工（趨勢(shì)五）Trend V: Classification of High, Middle and Low Products這種分化將有利于專(zhuān)業(yè)化程度的提高、有利于質(zhì)量的提高、有利于產(chǎn)品成本的下降。This classification will promote specialization, high quality and cost saving.有規(guī)模有技術(shù)的企業(yè)將取得belongs to

24、 the companies with large scale and technology.有一定規(guī)模和實(shí)力的企業(yè)將取得belongs to the companies with certain scale and competitiveness.一般企業(yè)或小型企業(yè)將取得belongs to ordinary and small companies.高端產(chǎn)品High level product中端產(chǎn)品Middle level product低端產(chǎn)品Low level product高、中、低三類(lèi)產(chǎn)品自動(dòng)分工（趨勢(shì)五）Trend V: Cl行業(yè)內(nèi)企業(yè)加速聯(lián)合、兼并（趨勢(shì)六）Trend VI:

25、More Merge & Acquisition面對(duì)市場(chǎng)嚴(yán)峻的考驗(yàn)，各企業(yè)通過(guò)聯(lián)合和兼并，保持自有的一塊領(lǐng)地。Given the intense competition, manufacturers are trying to maintain the existing market by M&A.大企業(yè)考慮做大做強(qiáng)For big companies: How to become bigger and stronger中型企業(yè)考慮定位與合作For meddle companies: How to position itself and cooperate小型、微型企業(yè)考慮特色For small companies: Where is its advantage每個(gè)企業(yè)都在尋找自己的定位和方向，所以說(shuō)聯(lián)合、兼并是必然趨勢(shì)Every company is looking for its own position and direction, so the M&A is inevitable. 行業(yè)內(nèi)企業(yè)加速聯(lián)合、兼