催化教育4.0投資學(xué)習(xí)的未來實(shí)現(xiàn)以人為本的復(fù)蘇

gn0gneefgracryINSIGHT REPORTMAY 2022May2022 CatalysingEducation4.0DisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheorldForumasacontributiontoapoject,insightaeaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpetationsandconclusionsexpessedheeinaeaesultofacollaborativepocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheorldEconomicForumbutwhoseesultsdonotnecessarilyepesenttheviewsoftheorldEconomicForum,northeentietyofitsPartnersorotherstakeholders.orldEconomicForum91-93outedelaCapiteCH-1223Switzerlandel.:+41(0)228691212Fax:+41(0)227862744E-mail:Copyright?2022bytheorldEconomic

Allrightseserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybeepoducedortransmittedinanyformorbymeans,includingphotocopyingandecoding,orbyanyinformationstorageandetrievalsystem.Cover:UnsplashJessBailey4 Executivesummary6 Intoduction8 Chapter1:Economiceturnstoeducation:sizeoftheprize2 Chapter2:Learningdisrupted:educationinequalit,technologyandtheCOVID-19CrisisChapter3:Investingineducation4.0:keyopportunityaeas3.1Opportunityaea:newassessmentmechanisms8 3.2Opportunityaea:adoptionofnewlearningtechnologies0 3.3Opportunityaea:empoweringtheeducationworkfoce23 Chapter4:CalltoactionAppendix–CalculatingpotentialGDPinceaseduetoEducation4.0adoptionEndnotes30 Souces30 Refeences34 Contributors&Acknowledgments?2022WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.May02

CatalysingEducation4.0eEvenbefoetheCOVID-19pandemic,millionsofchildenandyoungpeopleweeoutofglobally–and,amongthoseinschool,manyweenotlearningtheskillsneededtosucceedeconomicallyintheageoftheFourthIndustrialRevolution(4IR)1Thepandemichasfurtherexacerbatedthesetends,withnearly1.6billionchildenandyoungpeopleimpactedbyschoolclosuesoverthepasttwoyears,andminimalaccesstoemediessuchasemotelearningthosealeadymostmarginalized.ThecompoundefectsofCOVID-19,pe-existingeducationinequalitiesandtherapidtechnologicalchangeofthe4IRunderlinethatsimplyeturningtothepe-pandemicstatusquorisksnotjusttheopportunitiesandwell-beingoftodaysgenerationofyounglearners,buttheveryfoundationsofglobaleconomicecoveryandposperity.Foranypost-pandemicecoveryplantobesuccessfulandsustainableinthelongterm,acompehensiveappoachtoinvestmentinhigh-quality,innovative,futue-poofeducationmustbeastrategicpriority.Theeisauniquewindowtoidentifyopportunitiesforfundamental,strategicinvestmentsintransformingprimaryandsecondaryeducationaspartoftheboaderpost-pandemicecovery,andeimagineaneducationsystemthatisinclusive,focusesonthebeadthofskillsneededtobesuccessfulintheageofthe4IR,andleveragestechnologicalandpedagogicalinnovationtoputlearnersatthecenteoflearning.PeviousworkbytheorldEconomicForumhassummarizedsuchavisiontopepaestudentsfortheeconomiesoftomorowas‘Education4.0’.Thisinsighteporthighlightsthat:

Globalinequalitiespersistinyearsofschoolingattainment,aswellasschoolingquality.Inaddition,schoolclosuesduetotheCOVID-19pandemichaveledtoaschoolinglossofoverone-halfyea,onaverage,whichispojectedtoleadtoa3.9%declineinlifetimeincomesandlossofupto$17trillionglobally.Asingle$1investmentinachildseducationyieldsasmuchas$5ineturnsoveralifetime.Anadditionalyearofeducationonaveragetranslatesto9%higherlifetimeearnings,2andinsomecasesupto15%highe.3Theeturnsinlowe-incomecountriesaeevenhigherthoseinhighe-incomecountries.eestimatethataglobalimpovementinstudents’collaborativepoblem-solvingcapacitytotheaverageleveloftodaystop10scoringcountriescouldaddanadditional$2.54trillioninceasedpoductivitytotheglobaleconomy.Inabsoluteterms,EuopeandSouthAsia–withestimatedinceasesinpoductivityof$0.51trillionand$0.46trillion,espectively–standtobenefitthemost.Howeve,elativetotodaysoftheiregionaleconomies,Sub-SaharanAfricaandLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanalsostandtobenefitsignificantly.Theeducationsectoralsoprovidesopportunitiesforjobcreation.While85millionteachersarecurrentlyemployedworldwide,anadditional69millionteacherswillneedtoberecruitedinthecomingyearstoreachU.N.SustainableDevelopmentGoal(SDG)4:QualityEducation.Eachoftheserolesmustbesupplementedwithadditionalrolesineducationleadership,specialistandcomplementaryeducationsupportroles,providingadditionalopportunitiesforjobcreationinthesector.Inaddition,theeaemyriadofothersocietalbenefits,suchasgeatercivicengagementandstongerinstitutionaltrust,leadingtogeaterwell-beingfornationsandtheircitizensacosstheglobe.Keyinvestmentaeasincludenewassessmentmechanisms,adoptionofnewlearningtechnologiesandempowermentoftheteachingworkfocethoughskillupgradingandpedagogydevelopment.Curently,educationalinvestment–ineconomiesinparticular–isattractingelativelylittlecapitalfomtheprivatesecto,blendedfinanceorevenmultilateraldevelopmentfinanceinstitutions.At$5trillion,theglobaleducationsectoraccountsforabout6%ofglobalGD,yetithasattractedonlyabout$300billionininvestmentsin2020.Thisislessthanone-tenthoftheinvestmentinthecomparably-sizedhealthcaesecto.eleeftsdoN4retedtatnn,doy6nlThelargestandfastest-gowinginvestmentsaoundeducationhavebeenineducationtechnology,or‘edtech’,whichaepojectedtoattractabout$404billionofcapitalgloballyby2025,amidinceasedecognitionoftheimportanceoftechnology-enabledandlearningduringthepandemic.oealizethisvision,stakeholdersfomallpartsofsocietyhaveaoletoplay–fomrandnon-governmentalagencies,tobusinesses,investorsandeducators,topaentsandcaegiversaswellaslearnersthemselves.Inputtingfontandcentetheeconomiccaseforupgradingourexistingeducationsystems,wehopethisinsighteportwillsupportagowingmovementtomakeEducationauniversaleality.May02

CatalysingEducation4.0BefoetheCOVID-19pandemic,theCommissiononFinancingGlobalEducationOpportunityestimatedthat263millionchildenandyoungpeopleweeoutofschoolglobally.Furthe,amongthoseinschool,manyweenotlearningtheskillsneededtosucceedeconomicallyintheageofthe4IR.Basedonthesepojections,nearlyonebillionyoungpeopleinlow-andincomecountriesaenotontracktoacquiebasicsecondary-levelskillsby20304Moeove,inmanypartsoftheworld,thecicumstancesinwhichachildisborn–suchasgende,socio-economicstatus,locationandethnicity–continuetosignificantlyinfluencetheiraccesstoqualityeducation.Accesstoqualityeducation,orlacktheeof,inturnhasastongimpactonayoungpersonsabilitytoaccessthelabourmarketandfutueeconomicTheCOVID-19pandemichasfurtherexacerbatedthesepe-existinginequalitiesineducation.1.6billionchildenandyoungpeoplehavebeen

impactedbyCOVID-19-elatedschoolclosuesglobally.Thesedisruptionsriskhavinglong-termimplicationsforfutuesocio-economicmobility,asevenafou-weekschoolclosueisestimatedtoeducethemedianlearningachievementofachildby20pecentilepoints6Andtheseefectsmaybeevenmoeponouncedfordisadvantagedwhosefamiliesmaynotbeabletoafodothermechanisms,suchasaccesstodigitaltools,forsupportingcontinuedlearningduringthepandemic.ThecompoundingefectsofCOVID-19onlearninginequalityaddtoanexistingfinancialtheattoeducationbudgetsworldwide.oooften,financingisseenasexpendableandsecondarytootherexpenditues.Attitudestowadseducationinvestmentmustnotonlyworktopeserveexistingbudgetallocationforeducation;theyshouldtakeapoactivestanceinpursuingEducation4.0skillsandpedagogies(seeFigue1).OnekeygoalofeportistomaketheeconomiccaseforsuchaFIGURE1 TheorldEconomicForumsEducation4.0FrameworkContent(built-inmechanismsforskillsadaptation)Globalcitizenshipskillsoincludecontentthatfocusesonbuildingawaenessaboutthewiderworld,andplayinganactiveoleintheglobalcommunity.Innovationandceativityskillsoincludecontentthatfostersskillsforinnovation,includingcomplexpoblem-solving,analyticalthinking,ceativityandsystem-analysis.echnologyskillsoincludecontentthatisbasedondigitalskills,includingpogramming,digitalesponsibilityandtheuseoftechnology.Interpersonalskillsoincludecontentthatfocusesoninterpersonalemotionalintelligence(i.e.empathy,negotiation,leadershipandsocialawaeness).SourceWorldEconomicForum,2020.

Experiences(leveraginginnovativepedagogies)Personalizedandself-pacedlearningFomasystemwheelearningisstandadized,toonebasedonthediverseindividualneedsofeachlearne,andflexibleenoughtoenablelearnertopogessattheirownpace.AccessibleandinclusivelearningFomasystemwheelearningisconfinedtothosewithaccesstoschoolbuildingstoonewhicheveryonehasaccessinlearningandistheefoeinclusive.Poblem-basedandcollaborativelearningFompocess-basedtopojectandpoblem-contentdelivery,equiringpeercollaborationandmoecloselymiroringthefutueofwork.Lifelongandstudent-drivenlearningFomasystemwheelearningandskillingdeceaseoveroneslifespantoonewheeeveryonecontinuouslyimpovesonexistingskillsandnewonesbasedontheirindividualneeds.stanceclea.Compehensiveinvestmentstrategieslocally,nationallyandglobally–aeurgentlyneededtoensueprimaryandsecondaryschooleducationsystemsaefutue-eadyandequipchildenwiththebeadthofskillstheyneedtobelifelongrEvidencesuggeststhatearly-childhoodandprimaryschoolingisdispoportionatelyinfluentialoncaeertrajectoryandlifetimeearnings,layingafoundationforenablingchildento“l(fā)earnhowtolearn”thoughouttheirlives7Theeisawindowofopportunitytoidentifyfundamentalstrategicinvestmentineformedprimaryandsecondaryeducationaspartoftheboaderpost-pandemicecovery,ande-imagineaneducationsystemthatisinclusive,focusesontheskillsneededtobesuccessfulintheageof4IR,andleveragestechnologicalandpedagogicalinnovationtoputlearnersatthecenteoflearning.PeviousworkbytheorldEconomicForumhassummarizedsuchavisionasEducation4..8Asthiseportwilldocument,thepotentialeconomicandsocialeturnsonsuchinvestmentwouldbesubstantial–moethan$2.54trillioninadditionalglobalGD.

Accodingly,thiseportisacalltoactionacallforleadersfomacosssectorsandgeographiestoworktogethertoturntheCOVID-19learningcrisisintoanopportunityforeducationtransformation9oealizethisvision,stakeholdersfomallpartsofsocietyhaveaoletoplay–fomgovernmentsandnon-governmentalagenciestobusinesses,investorsandeducatorstopaentsandcaegiversandlearnersaswellasmultilateralefortssuchastheUnitedNationsransformingEducationSummitplannedSeptember202210Inputtingfontandcentetheeconomiccaseforupdatingandupgradingourexistingeducationsystems,11wehopethiseportwillsupportagowingmovementtoidentifyopportunitiesforinvestmenttomakeuniversalaccesstoqualityEducation4.0aeality.May0211

CatalysingEducation4.0croefeAwiderangeofexistingeseachhighlightstheeconomiccaseforinvestmentineducationfomearlychildhoodonwad.Achildsearlyeducationlaysthefoundationfortheiracoflearningthoughoutadultlife,influencingtheirskillset,futueemploymentpotentialandgeneralwell-being.Reseachsuggeststhatearly-childhoodschoolingandprimaryeducationhaveadispoportionateefectoncriticalcognitivedevelopment,buildingskillswhichaethenmultipliedthoughlearninglaterinlife.12Notonlydoeseducationpovidediectbenefitsforindividuals,butthesebenefitselevatesocietyasawholebyinceasinghealthandstengtheningcivicinstitutions.Thefollowingsectionpovidesabriefoverviewoftheexistingevidenceontheeconomicbenefitsofinvestingineducation.

IndividualdiecteturnsDatashowsthatasingledollarinvestedineducationattheprimaryandsecondarylevelanestimated$2.50inadditionalgosslifetimeearningsinlowe-middleincomecountries,andasmuchas$5.00inadditionalgosslifetimeearningsinlowe-incomecountries–i.e.a500%eturnoninvestment13,14Similarly,esultsfomstudiesconductedaoundtheworldindicatethatanadditionalyearofeducationtranslatesto,onaverage,9%higherlifetimeearnings15andincasesupto15%higher(seeFigue2).16FIGURE2 Earningsinceaseduetoanadditionalyearofschooling,byegionandincomelevel15 15nsnsfrsrse6 63 30 0Earningsincease(%) MeanyearsofeducationSourceWorldBank,20,usingdatafromMontenegroandPatrinos,202;WorldEconomicForumregionalclassification.

NoteEarningincreaserepresentsthemedianpercentageincreaseinwagesassociatedwitheachadditionalyearofschooling.Ratesofeturnoneducation,asexpessedbyinceaseinearningselatedtoyearsofeducation,tendtobehigherinlowe-incomecountriesthaninhighe-incomecountries(9.3%vs.8.2%,espectively).17Aslowe-incomecountrieshaveloweraveragelevelsofeducationandlowerearningslevels,investmentineducationthuspovidesthegeatestbenefitswheeitisneededmost.Regionally,Sub-SaharanAfricancountrieshavethehighesteturnsat13.9%,withratesashighas15%forwomenand9%formen.18Aseconomiesaoundtheworldgowandgraduallyappoachthefontierofwhattraditionaleducationsystemsaeabletopovide,fullyleveragingthetechnologicalandpedagogicalinnovationsofEducation4.0willbeequiedtobuildonthisfoundationofdiecteturnsandcontinuetocontributetothegowthanddevelopmentofindividualwell-being.Thecultivationofcollaborativepoblem-solvingskills,socio-emotionalawaenessandothernon-cognitiveskillsthatfosterinnovationandceativitywillbethesouceofmuchoftheeconomiceturnsintheeconomiesoftomoro.MacoeconomicandeturnsTimespentineducationnotonlydevelopsskillsthatdiectlyleadtohigherincomesforindividuallearners,butalsomeasurablypomotesboadereconomicandsocialwell-beingofindividuals,communitiesnationsasawhole–eturnsthataelikelytofurtherinceaseintheageofthe4IR19Higherlevelsofeducationleadtobetterhealth,whichallowsindividualstoleadhappie,moefulfillinglives.Betterhealthoutcomesalsoleadtohigherpoductivityandbettereconomicoutcomes,ashealthcaecostsdeceaseandindividualsmissfewerdaysofworkduetoillnessorotherhealthconditions.20,21Goodhealthisalsoespeciallyimportantforearlycognitivedevelopmentinchilden,whichpovidesthefoundationforskilldevelopmentandsuccessineducation.oungchildenundertheehavesubstantialbrainplasticitythateadilyabsorbslearningexperiences,layingafoundationofcognitivedevelopmentthatwillpersistthoughoutadulthood.22,23Ifweconsidertheseindiectbenefitsinpuelyeconomictermsandincludetheminestimatedratesofeturntoeducation,asingleyearofadditionaleducationinlow-incomecountriesrisesfomaeturnof10.6%to16.3%.24Bysomeestimates,every$1spentonearlychildhooddevelopmentinterventionsyields$13ineconomiceturns.25Theseeconomicgainsextendbeyondtheindividual,ascountriesaeabletospendalowerpoportionofGDPonteatingchonichealthissuesandalargernationaltalentpoolisavailabletoadvancevarioussectorsoftheeconomy.

Educationalsofostershigherlevelsofcivicengagementandinstitutionaltrust,whichtostronginstitutionsandeffectivegovernance.Stronginstitutionsinturnprovidethefoundationaneffectivebusinessenvironmentand,ultimately,greatereconomicwell-being26Moeyearsofschoolingaefoundtobewithmoetolerantpoliticalopinions,higherratesofcommunityvolunteeringandhigherratesofmembershipofcitizengoups27Onestudyfoundthatindividualswhohadgraduatedfomschoolingwee70%moelikelytovotethannon-graduates28Stongcivicnormsinspiedbyobusteducationsystemsaelikelytopovideeconomicbenefitsinamyriadofways,evenpositivelyimpactingeducationsystemsthemselves.Withhighercivicengagementandfaithinpublicinstitutions,po-educationpoliciesaemoelikelytobefunded,ceatingapositivefeedbackloopforhigherlevelsofeducationinsubsequentgenerationsinapocesswhichculminatesinhigherlevelsofinnovation,technologicalgowthanddevelopment.Higherlevelsofeducationalsoinspiesocialtrustbypomotinglowercrimerates.AstudydoneintheUnitedStatesfoundthatifhighschoolgraduationratesinceasedby1pecentagepoint,upto100,000fewercrimeswouldbecommittedthefollowingyea,leadingtonearly$2.1billioninsavings–asavingsof$3,000peradditionalhighschoolgraduate.29Whenitcomestoeconomicdevelopment,theeducationlevelofanation’sworkforceisafundamentaldriverinadoptingandapplyingtechnologies,inpushingthetechnologicalfrontierand,ultimately,inaggregateeconomicgrowth.Multi-countrystudiesdemonstratethatavarietyofstudentachievementmeasuresareassociatedwithhigherratesofeconomicgrowthandhighercapitalinvestment.Forexample,educationalattainmentaccountsfor60%ofworkerproductivityinonekeystudyof64countries30Thevarietyofeducationalmeasuresemployedintheresearchindicatethatbothschoolingquantityandqualityareimportantforgreatereconomicreturns.Astechnologicalprogressisakeychannelthroughwhicheducationpromotesgrowth,itsislikelytoincreasesignificantlyintheageofthe4IR.Onesetofmeasuesthataimstoappoximatekeycognitiveandnon-cognitiveskillsneededtonavigatefutueeconomiesandthriveintheageofthe4IRistheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopments(OECD)ProgrammeforInternationalStudentAssessment(PISA).Recently,PISAdevelopedanassessmentofstudents’capacityfor“collaborativepoblem-solving”31—aconceptthatinmanywaysdovetailswiththeForumsEducation4.0framework.oillustratethepotentialeconomicefectsofwidespeadadoptionofEducation4.0,weestimatetheeturnsoninvestmentwithespecttothePISAcollaborativepoblem-solvingmeasue,usingdatafomtheOECDandInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF),andapplyingamethodologypioneeedbytheOECD(seeAppendix).32eestimatethataglobalimpovementinstudents’collaborativepoblem-solvingcapacitytotheaverageleveloftodaystop10scoringcountriescouldaddanadditional$2.54trillionininceasedpoductivitytotheglobaleconomy(Figue3[a]).Inabsoluteterms,EuopeandSouthAsia–withpotentialinceasesof$0.51trillionand$0.46trillion,espectively–standtobenefitthemost.Howeve,elativetotodayssizeoftheiregionaleconomies,Sub-SaharanAfricaandLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanalsostandtobenefitsignificantly.Atacountrylevel,China($370billion),theUnitedStates($242billion),Brazil($145billion),Mexico($82billion)andItaly($75billion)wouldseethehighesteturn,inabsoluteterms,onsuchamove

towadEducation4.0(Figue3[b]).However,whenmeasuedinpecentagetermselativeto2019countryGD,weseethatPakistanwouldearnthehighesteturnsat12.7%ofGD,followedbySouthAfricaat9.9%,unisiaat9.5%andBrazilat7.6%.Thequestionis:Whatkindofeducationsystemeforms,transformationsandinvestmentswouldbeneededtomakethistheoeticalscenarioaeality?TheemainderofthiseportisdedicatedtodisentanglinganddocumentingthiseconomicandinvestmentcaseforealizingthepotentialofEducation4.0.eaimtohighlightkeyopportunityaeasforinvestmentandactionsthatcouldbetaken,individuallyandcollectively,byavarietyofkeystakeholders.Befoewecanturntothesestrategies,howeve,itisimportanttoconsiderhowCOVID-19,pe-existingeducationinequalitiesandacceleratingtechnologicalchangehasafectedtheglobalplayingfieldofeducationaswellastodaysgenerationofyounglearners.FIGURE3A.Region

Education4.0:PotentialGDPgainfominvestmentin"collaborativepoblemskills(2019US$,billions)Euope$489b

SouthAsia$458borld$2,455b

EastAsiaandthe$333b

LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean$332bMiddleEastandNorth$266b

North$235b

Sub-Saharan$179b

CentralAsia$163bSourceWorldEconomicForumcalculations.

NoteProjectedglobalreturnsfromraisingPISA205scoresin"collaborativeproblemsolving"totheaveragelevelofthe0bestperformingcountries;seeAppendixfordetails.FIGURE

Education4.0:PotentialGDPgainfominvestmentin"collaborativepoblemskills(2019US$,billions)B.Selectedcountries04lPn81216PakistanSouthAfricaunisiaBrazilPeruurkeyColombiaMexicoUnitedArabEmiratesThailandMalaysiaCostaRicaUruguayBulgariaCyprusChileGeeceRussianFederationItalyLuxembourgFranceChinaSpainPortugalCzechRepublicBelgiumNorwayAustriaSwedenNetherlandsUnitedKingdomDenmarkUnitedStatesGermanyAustraliaNewZealandFinland0100200300400lPn$PotentialGDPgain(%) PotentialGDPgain(US$billions)SourceWorldEconomicForumcalculations.

NoteProjectedglobalreturnsfromraisingPISA205scoresin"collaborativeproblemsolving"totheaveragelevelofthe0bestperformingcountries;seeAppendixfordetails.May0222

CatalysingEducation4.0rgn,yd9Whileupgradingeducationhasthepotentialforlargeeturnsoninvestment,opportunitiesforealizingtheseeturnsaefarfomevenlydistributed.SchoolclosuesintheearlymonthsoftheCOVID-19pandemichaveexacerbatedexistingdisparitiesinlearning,andmanyeducationsystemshavefallenfurtherbehindinceatingaworkfoceeadytotacklethechallengesofthe4IR,33pomptingacaseforurgentchange.Educationlevelsvarygeatlywithinandbetweendifeentcountries.Notonlyaemeasuedyearsofeducationveryunequallydistributedaoundtheworld,butthequalityofeducationalsoconsiderably.Asingleyearofeducationmaytranslatetoverydifeentlevelsoflearningincountries.obettercompaecountries,expertsuseameasueof“l(fā)earning-adjusted”years,whichadjuststhemeasueofeducationfordifeencesqualityandtherateoflearning.34Forthiseport,weconstructameasueoflearning-adjustedyearsofeducationbyweighingstandadyearsofeducationbytheratioofacountrysPISAtestscoesin“collaborativepoblemsolving”tothescoesofthehighest-performingcountry(seeFigue4).ounderscoetheimportanceofEducation4.0competencies,weagainemploythemeasueof“collaborativepoblemsolving”forourchoiceofPISAscoes.Whenviewedthoughthelensoflearning-adjustedyearsofeducation,inequalityofeducationoutcomesbetweencountriesappearsstarkerthanbyodinaryyearsofeducationalone.Countrieswithhigh-qualityeducationsystems,suchasSingapoe,JapanorNewZealand,seejustasmalldifeencebetweenactualyearsofeducationandlearning-adjustedyears;wheeas,inmanyemergingeconomies,learning-adjustedyearsimplyashortfallofuptotheeyearsofeducationcompaedtoactualyearsmeasued.Forexample,inunisia,averageyearsofeducationfallfom10yearstoonly6.8years–a32%dop–afteradjustingforlearningquality.Similarly,Cyprus,Malaysia,PeruandBrazilseealmost30%lower

measuesofyearsofschoolingafteradjustingforlearningquality.rsedysesoetdfsf5r,tesf6r%fnnnsyey,doy%fnn7hsndestoesrsnectyondesec,trhsndoakpfsgdnnneThesesharpdisparitiesnotonlyexistrbutalsoattheindividuallearnerlevel,asdifeentstudentsaeafodeddifeenteducationalopportunities.Asthesedifeencesaccumulatetime,thestatusquoforeturnstoskillsmayleadtoevengeaterlevelsofeconomicinequality.COVID-19hasfurtherexacerbatedthislearningdivide.Inearly2020,pandemic-elatedclosueofschoolsafectedanestimated1.6billionchildenandyounglearnersinover180countries.38ny-deepo%fsedydl9hdrffall0lsotttrgsy,ttsy.nr,eentndsdmtnosr,n,reef1InastudyconductedinSwitzerland,primaryschoolstudentslearnedathalftherateinemotelearningcompaedtoin-personlearning42AndinestimatesfomLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanegion,schoolshutdownscouldhavecausedstudentstoloseupto88%ofwhattheywouldhavelearnedduringanormalschoolFIGURE4 Education4.0:gapbetweenactualandlearning-adjustedyearsofschoolingSingapoeJapanCanadaUnitedUnitedKingdomGermany

0.230.631.011.010.86

0.00IcelandEstoniaNetherlandsLuxembourgAustraliaSloveniaFinlandCzechRepublicSwedenFranceBelgiumHungaryIsraelDenmarkNewCoatiaAustriaItaly

0.580.991.640.651.340.581.411.131.511.332.032.110.850.571.981.071.83

1.52CyprusLatviaSpainNorwayMalaysiaBulgariaPortugalChileLithuaniaThailandColombiaMexicoPeruCosta

1.99

1.651.321.152.682.512.352.482.322.66

2.76BrazilUruguayunisia

1.92

2.623.200 5 10 15 20sfLearning-adjustedyears Gap(years)SourceWorldEconomicForumcalculations,usingdatafromWorldBank,20,BarroandLee,203,andOECD,205.

NoteDatacomparesyearsofactualschoolingandlearning-adjustedschoolingamongyoungpeople,ages25-29,calculatedusingPISAdataon"collaborativeproblemsolving.Theselossesinlearninghavediecteconomicimpactsandconsequences.Forindividualearnings,ahalf-yearofschoolclosuetranslatestoanaveragelossof3.9%oflifetimeincomeacossOECDcountries.Amongindividualcountries,Geeceispojectedtohavethelowestlosses,at2.3%oflifetimeincome;theUnitedStatesat4.6%;andSingapoeatthehighend,withpojectedlifetimeincomelossesof8.4%.44TheorldBankestimatesthatearningslossescouldamountup

to$17trilliongloballyforthecurentgenerationofstudents.45,46Theseeconomiclossesdonotonlymeanlowerconsumptionandsavingsforindividuals,buttheentieeconomicsystemwillslowasaconsequence.Intheaggegate,ahalf-yearoflearninglossispojectedtoesultin2.2%lowerfutueGDPfortheaverageOECDcountry.47PriortotheCOVID-19pandemic,educationspendingwasonanupwadtrajectory,havingthestongestgowthinlowe-incomecountries.Between2009and