世界銀行-越南國家氣候與發(fā)展報告（英）

VietnamCountryClimateandDevelopmentReporti

EASTASIA

PACIFIC

VIETNAM

WorldBankGroup

July,2022

?2022InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank

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COUNTRYCLIMATEAND

DEVELOPMENTREPORT

Acknowledgments viii

ListofAcronyms ix

Introduction 1

1.Vietnam’sDevelopmentModeland

ClimateChallenges 5

1.1.Vietnamisatacrossroads 5

1.2.ClimatechangeimpactsareerodingVietnam’s

productivecapital 6

1.3.Risingemissionsarecausingdamages 7

2.UnevenPreparednesstoCope

withClimateChangeRisks 11

2.1.Stronggovernmentcommitmenthasledto

revisedstrategies 11

2.2.Theprivatesector’sunevenlevelof

preparedness 12

3.AdaptingtoClimateChange-

TheResilientPathway 17

3.1.Buildingaclimate-resilienteconomywillnot

becheap 17

3.2.Improvingresourceallocationiskey 20

3.3.Protectingvulnerableassetsandimproving

disasterriskmanagement 21

3.3.1.Resilientagricultureandforestry 21

3.3.2.Resilientinfrastructure 23

3.3.3.Resilienttradeandmanufacturing 25

3.3.4.ResilientMekongDelta 26

3.3.5.Resilientshoresandcities 28

3.3.6.Caringforthemostvulnerablepeople29

ivVietnamCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport

4.MitigatingClimateChange-

TheDecarbonizingPathway 35

4.1.Boldcommitmentscallforboldactions 35

4.2.Smartpoliciestoaligndecarbonizationand

developmentobjectives 36

4.3.SectoralTransitions 39

4.3.1.Decarbonizingenergy 39

4.3.2.Decarbonizingtransport 46

4.3.3.Decarbonizingagriculture 49

4.3.4.Decarbonizingtradeandinvestinginnew

technologies 51

4.4.Ensuringajusttransition:Addressingimpacts

onlow-incomepeopleandworkers 53

4.4.1.Marginalimpactsonpovertyand

inequalityinthelongterm 53

4.4.2.AdjustmentcostsduringtheNZP

transition 54

4.4.3.Expectedchangesinthelabormarket55

5.MobilizingFinance 61

5.1.Theprivatesectorwillbepivotal 62

5.2.Publicfinancingshouldactasacatalyst 63

5.3.InternationalclimatefinanceandFDIareboth

crucial 64

6.Conclusionsand

Recommendations 67

6.1.Prioritizationiskey 67

6.2.Waysforward 70

Annex1.VietnamKeyClimateand

DevelopmentData 75

Annex2.BackgroundPapers 77

Annex3.Methodology,Modelling

Results,andDataIssues 78

A.GlobalclimatescenariosandCGEestimatesof

damages 78

B.CGEmodelbasicassumptionsfortheNZPand

mainmacroeconomicresults 80

C.Useofdiscountrates 82

D.Datadiscrepancies 83

Annex4.Impact-UrgencyPriority

Matrix 84

VietnamCountryClimateandDevelopmentReportv

Boxes

Box1.AbriefdescriptionoftheCGEmodelandbasicassumptions 17

Box2.Assessingexportingfirms’vulnerabilitytofloodingortropicalstorms 26

Box3.Buildingresilienthumancapital 30

Box4.Climate-inducedmigrationinVietnam 31

Box5.Hanoiairpollution:Howtargetedactioncanmaximizeco-benefits 37

Box6.TentechnicalhighlightsoftheADS 40

Box7:ImpactofthewarinUkraineonVietnam’senergysector 42

Box8.Vietnam’shifttowardenvironmentalgoodsexportsandemergingopportunities 51

Box9.Lessonsfrominternationalexperienceonreskillingorretrainingprograms 57

Tables

Table1.Cross-CountryEmissionOverview 8

Table2.Estimatesofincrementalfinancingneedsforadaptionmeasures,2022–2050 19

Table3.InvestmentneedsandoutputgainsundertheNet-ZeroPathway 36

Table4.HowkeysupportingpolicieswouldaffecttheimpactoftheNZPonGHGemissionsandGDP 38

Table5.InvestmentNeedsandEconomicCosts:AcceleratedDecarbonizationScenario,2022–2040 42

Table6.Prioritizationcriteria 68

viVietnamCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport

18

Figures

Figure1:AnewdevelopmentparadigmforVietnam 2

Figure2:Reachinghigh-incomestatusin2045willrequirefastergrowthforVietnam 5

Figure3:Estimatedcostsofclimatechangein2020($million) 7

Figure4:RisingGHGemissions 8

Figure5:PerCapitaGHGEmissions(tonnes/capita)(VietnaminRed) 9

Figure6:Climatechangeimpactsanddisasterrisksobservedbybusinesses(2019) 13

Figure7:EvolutionofSOEs’shareofoutputinVietnam’scarbon-intensiveindustrialsectors(%) 14

Figure8:Estimatedeconomicimpactsofhigherandmorevariabletemperaturesandprecipitationpatterns,

risingsealevels—lossofGDP

Figure9:Extremehazardsusceptibilityexposureofnational-scaleroadsinVietnam 24

Figure10:TheMekongDeltaishighlyexposedtosea-levelrise 27

Figure11:Floodrisksincoastalregions 28

Figure12:Vietnam’spowersectorishighlyreliantoncoal 39

Figure13:ComparisonofelectricitysourcesandGHGemissionbetweenCPSandADS 41

Figure14:Vietnam’sdomesticcoalproductionisconcentratedinthenorthernareasofthecountry 44

Figure15:ReductioninCO2emissionsby2030inmitigationscenario,comparedwithBAU 47

Figure16:Cost-effectivemeasurestoreduceGHGemissionsfromriceproduction 49

Figure17:Cost-effectivemeasurestoreduceGHGemissionsfromlivestock 50

Figure18:ImpactofNZPonpoverty,economicsecurity,andinequality(indeviationfromBAU)by204054

Figure19:Priceindexbycommoditygroup,2022–2040(%deviationfromBAU) 55

Figure20:Changesinemploymentpersectorin2040 56

Figure21:Financingneedsandpotentialsourcesoffunding,2022–2040 61

Figure22:Privateclimateandgreenoutstandingloansfrom2016to2021($billion) 62

VietnamCountryClimateandDevelopmentReportvii

Acknowledgments

ThisCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport(CCDR)isacollaborativeeffortoftheWorldBank,IFC,andMIGA,producedbyacoreteamledbyMuthukumaraMani(LeadEnvironmentalEconomist),JacquesMorisset(LeadEconomistandProgramLeader)andDineshAryal(SeniorEnvironmentalSpecialist).ThekeysectioncontributorsincludeRahulKitchlu,ShigeyukiSakaki,HardwickTchale,MatthewWai-Poi,RichardOlowo,SeanBradley,JoseAntonioCuestaLeiva,DorsatiMadani,NgaThiNguyen,PhuongHoangAiNguyen,TaiseiMatsuki,ThuThiLeNguyen,BryceRamseyQuillin,DarrylJamesDong,KetutAriadiKusuma,VickyChemutai,MarylaMaliszewska,HangThuVu,HaThuNguyen,EugeniuCroitor,MizushiSatoh,RohanBhargava,S.Vaideeswaran,andGauravTrivedi.

OthercontributorsincludeQuangHuongDoan,DucMinhPham,JudyYang,SabineCornieti,BipulSingh,AnimeshShrivastava,ClaireNicholas,ChiaraRogate,HungTanTran,ThiBaChu,BowenWang,VanAnhTran,PhuongTran,ChiKienNguyen,MariaCordeiro,ToniEliasz,AstridHerdisJacobsen,JeongjinOh,JukkaPekkaStrand,TowfiquaHoque,AblaSafir,FabianSeiderer,DungKieuVo,MichaelDrabble,NguyetThiAnhTran,RobertJ.Palacios,ShinsakuNomura,PushkalaLakshmiRatan,TuyenD.Nguyen,DeveshSingh,DiepNgocDo,LienAnhPham,AnnetteI.DeKleineFeige,AnhNguyetThiNguyen,HangLeNguyen,VietLinhVu,BaoQuangLam,ErnestBethe,OliverBehrend,BinhQuocNguyen,HansDellien,HuongThienNguyen,Mira

Nahouli,SubrataBarman,LeventCemEgritag,VanessaVizcarra,VanHoangPham,AnhTuongVu,QuyenHoangVu,VietAnhNguyen,andPhuongAnhNguyen.

ModellingandanalyticalresultswereprovidedbyHasanDudu,PaulBrenton,MatthewWai-Poi,andErcio

AndrésMu?ozSaavedra.

TheCCDRwaspreparedundertheoveralldirectionofMonaSur(PracticeManager,SEAE2),SebastianEckart(PracticeManager,EEAM1),andKyleF.Kelhofer(SeniorManager,IFC).

TheCCDRengagementandoutreachstrategywaspreparedbyMasudMozammel,NganHongNguyen,AnhThiQuynhLe,andMarkFelsenthal.

TheteamwasablysupportedbyQuyenThuyDinh,KhanhLinhThiLe,MariaLourdesNoel,NgoziBlessing

ObiMalife,HaThanhThiVu,AnhKieuNguyen,andLinhThiThuyLeonadministrativematters.ThomasCohen,MarionDavis,andHaThanhDoanweretheeditors.

Detailedfeedback,suggestions,andcommentswerereceivedfromtheinternalpeerreviewersVivienFoster(ChiefEconomist,INFCE),VivekPathak(Director,CBDDR),IainShuker(PracticeManager,SAEE2),StephaneHallegatte(SeniorClimateChangeAdvisor,GGSVP),andHabibRab(LeadEconomist,EEADR),aswellasPabloFajnzylber(StrategyandOperationsDirector,ISODR),LouiseJ.Cord(GlobalDirector,SSIDR),ChristopheLemiere(PracticeLeader,HEADR),SomikLall(LeadEconomist,OfficeoftheChiefEconomist,EFI),andJohnNasir(Manager,CAPCE).

TheCCDRbenefittedfromdiscussionswithvariousexternalstakeholdersinVietnam,includingtheMinistryofPlanningandInvestment(MPI),theMinistryofNaturalResourcesandEnvironment(MONRE),academics,civilsocietyorganizations,theprivatesector,anddevelopmentpartners.

TheCCDRwaspreparedundertheguidanceofManuelaV.Ferro(WBRegionalVicePresident,EAP),AlfonsoGarcíaMora(IFCRegionalVicePresident),EthiopisTafara(MIGAVicePresidentandChiefRisk,LegalandAdministrativeOfficer),VictoriaKwakwa(FormerWBRegionalVicePresident,EAP),CarolynTurk(WBCountryDirectorforVietnam),BenoitBosquet(WBRegionalDirectorforSD),HassanZaman(WBRegionalDirectorforEFI),Kim-SeeLim(IFCRegionalDirector),andMerliBaroudi(MIGADirectorofEconomicsandSustainability).

viiiVietnamCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport

ListofAcronyms

1M5R

OneMustFiveReduction

ADS

Accelerateddecarbonizationscenario

ASEAN

AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations

AWD

Alternatewettinganddrying

BAU

Business-as-usual

BRT

Busrapidtransit

CBAM

CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism

CCDR

CountryClimateDevelopmentReport

CEA

CountryEnvironmentalAnalysis

CGE

Computablegeneralequilibrium

CNG

Compressednaturalgas

CO2

Carbondioxide

COP26

26thmeetingofthePartiestotheUNFCCC

COVID-19

Coronavirusdisease2019

CPS

Currentlyproposedpolicyscenario

EIPs

Eco-industrialparks

EPT

EnvironmentalProtectionTax(EPT)

ESCOs

EnergyServicesCompanies

ESG

Environmental-social-governance

EV

Electricvehicle

EVN

VietnamNationalElectricityUtility

FIT

Feed-intariff

GDP

GrossDomesticProduct

GHG

Greenhousegas

GIDD

GlobalIncomeDistributionDynamicModel

HVDC

High-voltagedirectcurrent

IFC

InternationalFinanceCorporation

IFPRI

InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute

ILO

InternationalLaborOrganization

IMF

InternationalMonetaryFund

IPCC

IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange

IWT

Inlandwaterwaytransport

LEP

LawonEnvironmentalProtection

VietnamCountryClimateandDevelopmentReportix

MANAGE

Mitigation,Adaptation,andNewTechnologiesAppliedGeneralEquilibrium

MIGA

MultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgency

MONRE

MinistryofNaturalResourcesandEnvironment

MPI

MinistryofPlanningandInvestment

NAAQS

NationalAmbientAirQualityStandard

NDC

NationallyDeterminedContribution

ND-GAIN

NotreDameGlobalAdaptionInitiative

NPV

Netpresentvalue

NTMs

Non-tariffmeasures

NZP

Net-ZeroPathway

ODA

Officialdevelopmentassistance

OECD

OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment

PDP

PowerDevelopmentPlanning

PFES

PaymentforForestEnvironmentServices

PM

ParticulateMatter

PPP

Publicprivatepartnership

RCP

Representativeconcentrationpathways

REDD

ReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandForestDegradation

RNZP

ResilientandaNet-ZeroDevelopmentPathway

SBV

StateBankofVietnam

SEDS

Socio-EconomicDevelopmentStrategy

SME

Smallandmediumenterprises

SOE

Stated-ownedenterprises

UNDP

UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgram

UNFCCC

UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange

VCCI

VietnamChamberofCommerceandIndustry

VGGS

VietnamGreenGrowthStrategy

WBG

WorldBankGroup

WHO

WorldHealthOrganization

xVietnamCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport

Likemostcountriesintheworld,Vietnamisincreasinglyseeingitsdevelopmentaffectedbyclimatechange.Withacoastlineof3,260kilometersthatincludesmajorcitiesandproductionsites,Vietnamishighlyexposedtosea-levelrise.ClimatechangeimpactsontheVietnameseeconomyandnationalwelfarearealreadysignificant—about3.2percentofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)in2020—andtheyareexpectedtoescalaterapidlyevenifgreatereffortsaremadetomitigatefutureclimatechangearoundtheworld.

Vietnamhashistoricallyhadverylowgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions,butoverthepasttwodecades,ithasseensomeofthefastestemissionsgrowthratesintheworld.From2000to2015,asGDPpercapitaincreasedfrom$390to$2,000,percapitaemissionsmorethanquadrupled.Vietnam’sGHGemissionsareassociatedwithtoxicairpollutioninmanyofitscitiestoday,withimplicationsforhealthandlaborproductivity.AttheUNClimateChangeConferenceinGlasgowinNovember2021(COP26),thePrimeMinistermadeseveralcommitments,includinganambitioustargetofreducingemissionstonetzeroby2050.Vietnam’sincreasedattentiontoclimatechangeandtheenvironmentreflectsthegrowingeconomiccostsofresourcedepletionandclimateimpacts,whichhavealreadystartedtoharmtradeandinvestment—twokeydriversofthenation’srobustgrowthandjobcreationinrecentdecades.

Vietnamnowfacescriticalquestionsabouthowtorespondtoclimatechange:Howintensivelyshoulditworktoadapttopreviousandpredicteddamagescausedbyclimatechange,giventheuncertaintyofglobalmitigationefforts?HowmuchwillitcosttoreduceGHGemissions?HowcantheprivatesectorbemobilizedtohelpachieveVietnam’sclimategoals?Aretheretrade-offsbetweenadaptationandmitigationinvestments?Aretheretrade-offsbetweeneconomicgrowth,povertyreduction,andclimateaction,andhowcantheybemanaged?Whichsectorsandregionsshouldbeprioritized?Whatarethedistributionalimplicationsofalow-carbon,climate-resilientgrowthpath?

TheVietnamCountryandClimateDevelopmentReport(CCDR)investigatesthesequestions.Oneofthefirstinaseriesofcountry-leveldiagnosticsproducedbytheWorldBankGroup(WBG)underits2021–2025ClimateChangeActionPlan,theCCDRexaminestheadaptationandmitigationchallengesfacedbyVietnam.Itpaysspecialattentiontopolicytrade-offsandprovidesrecommendationstohelppolicymakersprioritizeamongarangeofoptions,recognizinguncertaintiesaboutfutureclimatechangeimpactsandtheavailabilityoftechnologyandfinancing.TheCCDRreliesondataandquantitativetoolstoinformtheanalysisandprioritizationprocess.

VietnamCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport1

Foreachofthesepathways,theCCDRidentifiesactionsthatareparticularlyurgent,mostlikelytocreatesynergiesbetweendevelopmentandenvironmentalobjectivesandimposethesmallestburdensonthepoor.Theunderlyingargumentisthatactionswillbemoreacceptable,increasingtheirchanceofbeingimplementedrapidly,ifthereisasenseofurgencyassociatedwiththemandiftheycontributetothecountry’sobjectivesofrapiddevelopment,inclusion,andfinancialstability.Inthisway,theCCDRaimstostimulatepolicydiscussionsonhowVietnamcanreconcileitsdevelopmentandclimateobjectives,inboththeshortandlongerterms.

TheCCDRdoesnotaddressallthekeyclimate-relatedchallengesfacedbyVietnam.Forexample,onekeyunderstudiedareahasbeenhow,throughitsnegativeeffectsonhealthandeducation,climatechangehindershumancapitalformation,especiallyforpoorhouseholdsthatdonothavetheresourcesneededtoadapt.Furtherworkisalsoneededtobetterunderstandhowthedomesticlabormarketmayadjusttoexpectedtechnologyshiftsinhigh-emittingsectors(energy,transport,andagriculture),aswellasthenewopportunitiesthatmayemergefromhigherdemandforlow-carbonproductsbyindustriesandconsumers.Likewise,moreattentionshouldbepaidtohowclimatechangeisaffectingwatersecurity(howmuchandhowgood),watermanagement,andtheblueeconomy,inparticularthecompoundingeffectsofclimatechangeandpoorplanningonfisheriesandaquaculture,coastalecosystems,ports,andcoastalinfrastructure.ThesearejustafewexamplesthathighlighttheneedforacontinuedexaminationofclimateissuesinVietnambeyondtheCCDR.

VietnamCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport3

?VietnamNewsAgency

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Vietnam’sDevelopment

ModelandClimate

Challenges

4VietnamCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport

GDPpercapita(Constant2015US$)

T

T+2

T+4

T+6

T+8

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T+20

T+22

T+24

T+26

T+28

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1.Vietnam’sDevelopmentModelandClimateChallenges1.1.Vietnamisatacrossroads

Aftermorethantwodecadesofsteadygrowth,Vietnamhassetanambitiousgoalofreachinghighincomestatusby2045.However,forVietnamtoreachhigh-incomestatus(definedaspercapitaincomeof$12,695),itwillneedtoexceeditshistoricalgrowthratesachievedduringthe1990-2020period.Incomparison,Korea,whichhadthesamepercapitaincomein1951asVietnamdidin1990,took42yearstoreachhigh-incomestatus(seeFigure2).

Figure2:Reachinghigh-incomestatusin2045willrequirefastergrowthforVietnam

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0

Vietnam

2045

Korea(1951-2005)Vietnam(1990-2020)

Thailand(1958-2012)Vietnam(2021-2045)

China(1983-2020)

HICthreshold

Source:WorldBank,basedonWorldDevelopmentIndicatorsdata.

Note:Time-TcorrespondstotheyearwheneachcountryreportedthesameGDPpercapitaasVietnamhadin1990.

Toachievehigh-incomestatus,thecountry’slatestSocio-EconomicDevelopmentStrategy(SEDS)emphasizestheneedtoaccumulatemoreproductive,physical,andhumancapital--andtouseitmoreefficiently--inordertogeneratetheproductivitygainsneededtoreplicatetheSouthKoreaneconomicsuccess.2TheSEDSalsorecognizesthateconomicgrowthtodatehasconsumedVietnam’snaturalcapitalatanunsustainablerate,sothatitisbeingdepleted.3

AmajorrecognitioninthelatestSEDSisthatthecountry’seconomictransformationwillgreatlydependonbettermanagementofnaturalcapital.Likemostlow-incomecountries,Vietnamhasreliedheavilyonitsnaturalresourcesforeconomicgrowth,usingitsextensivestocksofagricultural,forest,andmineral

2Formoredetails,seeMinistryofInvestmentandPlanning,VietnamSocio-EconomicDevelopmentStrategy:2021–2030,February2021.SeealsoWorldBankGroup.2020.“VibrantVietnam:ForgingtheFoundationofaHigh-IncomeEconomy.”CountryEconomicMemorandum.Hanoi:WorldBank./10986/33831.TherecentSystematicCountryDiagnosticupdateprovidesaseriesofreformsthatshouldhelpgeneratethisshifttowardmoreeconomicefficiencyduringandintheaftermathoftheCOVID-19pandemic.SeeWorldBank.2021.“HowWillVietnamBlossom?ReformingInstitutionsforEffectiveImplementation.”SystematicCountryDiagnostic.Washington,DC:WorldBank./10986/36797.

3Thenaturalcapitalbeingdepletedincludesforests,water,fishstocks,minerals,biodiversity,land,andotherassets.

VietnamCountryClimateandDevelopmentReport5

resourcestodrivedevelopmentoverthepasttwodecades.TheestimatedvalueofVietnam’sstockofnaturalcapitalaccountedforaboutone-thirdofitswealthduring1990–2014,comparedwith10percentinEastAsiaand17percentinupper-middle-incomecountries.Sucharelianceexplainstoalargeextenttherapiddegradationofthecountry’snetgenuinesavingsfromapeakof25percentinearly2000stoaround10percentby2019.Thedeteriorationofexistingnaturalcapitalhasbeenfurtherexacerbatedbyinsufficientmaintenanceandincreasingclimaterisks.4Lookingforward,Vietnamwillneedtoshiftfromanarguablywastefulapproachtoeconomicexpansion—asproducersoftenusemoreland,water,wood,energy,andotherresourcesperunitofoutputthaninothercountries—toadevelopmentmodelthatmanagesnaturalcapitalmoresustainably.

1.2.ClimatechangeimpactsareerodingVietnam’sproductivecapital

Vietnamisamongtheworld’sveryvulnerablecountries,ranked127outof182bytheNotreDameGlobalAdaptationInitiative(ND-GAIN),and13thhighestamong180countriesbytheGermanwatchGlobalClimateRiskIndexfor2000–19.Itisalsoill-preparedtocopewithextremeevents,hottertemperatures,andrisingsealevels(ranked91of192bytheND-GAINReadinessIndex,56

yAssumingasimilarrateofincreaseinaveragetemperaturesforVietnam,by2080-90temperaturescouldbehigheronaverageby1-3.4degreesCelsius,relativetothe1986-2005baseline,withalargeramplitudeinmaximumandminimumtemperatures.

yTheriseinextremeheatislikelytoamplifytheimpactsonhumanhealth,livelihoods,andecosystems.

yModelingresultsshowconsiderableuncertaintyaroundtwoimportantissuesforVietnam:futureprecipitationtrends,andtrendsintheintensityofextremeevents.

yVietnam’slow-lyingcoastalandriverdeltaregionshaveveryhighvulnerabilitytosea-levelrise.Withouteffectiveadaptationmeasures,six-to-12millionpeoplecouldbeaffectedbycoastalfloodingby2070–2100,depend