HSBC-中國能源行業(yè)-中國太陽能設(shè)備：太陽能電池市場可能出現(xiàn)范式轉(zhuǎn)變

AsiamoneyBrokersPoll2022

Votenow

14June2022EquityResearchReport

ChinaSolarEquipment

Thesolarcellmarketcouldseeaparadigmshift

Equities

EnergyEquipment&Service

China

令Weexpectashiftinthemainstreamcelltechnology

令Thispresentsopportunitiestocellmakerswhocancommercialisethenewtechnologies

令UpgradeLongitoBuyfromHold;maintainBuyratingsonTongweiandZhonghuan

Weseeopportunitiesfromtheevolutionofthecelltechnology.PERC,themainstreamcelltechnology,isinastateofovercapacity.Andafteryearsofcostreduction,costsofcompetingtechnologieslikeHPBCandTopConarenowveryclosetothatofPERC,butwithhigherefficiency.Therefore,weexpectthemarketshareofnon-PERCcellstoincreasefromc10%in2021to55%in2025e,presentingopportunitiestocelldevelopersthatcancommercialisethenewtechnologies.BothHPBCandTopContechnologieslookpromisinginthepost-PERCera,giventheirpotentialnetcostsavingof4-5%and2%forsolaroperators,respectively,accordingtoourestimates.

CoreyChan*(Reg.No.S1700518100001)

Head,A-shareInfrastructure&RenewablesResearch

HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimited

corey.chan@

+862160813801

DunWang*(Reg.No.S1700519060002)

Analyst,A-shareInfrastructure&Renewables

HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimited

dun.wang@

+862160813827

LiamTian*(Reg.No.S1700121070002)

Associate

Shenzhen

*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulations

UpgradeLongitoBuyfromHold:Longiisourpreferredpickinthespaceaswe

seenear-termcatalystfromtheproductionofHPBCcellsstartinginAugust2022e.

WeexpecttheHPBCmoduleproducttocontributec30%ofitsearningsin2023-24e.

MaintainBuyratingsonTongweiandZhonghuan.WebelieveTongweishould

benefitfromthecelltechnologyevolutionasithasdoneextensiveR&Dsincell

technologies,andhasplannedtomorethandoubleitscellcapacityin2021-23e.We

seeupsidetoourearningsforecastsshoulditfocusmoreonthenewcell

technologiesforitsnewcapacities.ForZhonghuan,welikeitsdominantpositionin

G12wafer,whichislikelytogainmarketsharesgivenitscostsavingsforend-users.

Changestoourestimates:ForLongi(TPraisedtoRMB76.90fromRMB51.86),we

raiseour2023eearningsestimatesby35%toincorporatethesalesoftheHPBC

Votingopens1June–29JulyIfyouvalueourserviceandinsight

moduleproduct.ForZhonghuan(TPraisedtoRMB81.00fromRMB69.40),weraise

our2022-23eearningsestimatesby19-21%toreflectafaster-than-expected

capacityexpansion.ForTongwei(TPraisedtoRMB68.00fromRMB54.40),weraise

our2023eearningsestimatesby9%toreflectthecompany’splanofhighercapacity.

Seepage7forvaluationandrisks.

Keychangestoratings,targetpricesandestimates

Current__TargetPrice___

CompanyTickerCurrencyPriceOldNew

____Rating_____OldNew

Upside/Downside

__2022eEPS____OldNew

__2023eEPS___2024eEPS

OldNewNew

Zhonghuan

002129CH

RMB

45.57

69.40

81.00

Buy

Buy

78%

1.21

1.44

1.33

1.62

1.86

Tongwei

600438CH

RMB

53.53

54.40

68.00

Buy

Buy

27%

2.61

2.62

2.57

2.81

3.17

Longi

601012CH

RMB

61.06

51.86

76.90

Hold

Buy

26%

1.48

1.46

1.51

2.03

2.29

Source:Bloomberg,HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesestimates.Pricedasofcloseat10June2022.

Disclosures&Disclaimer

ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.

Issuerofreport:HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimited

ViewHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesat:

2

26.0%25.0%24.0%23.0%22.0%21.0%

20.0%

Equities●EnergyEquipment&Service14June2022

Investmentsummary

Webelieve2022willmarkthebeginningofthemarketsharedownturnofthemostpopularcelltechnologyPERC(passivatedemitterandrearcell)givenitsovercapacityandtheemergeofalternatives.BothHPBC(highperformancebackcontact)andTopCon(tunneloxidePassivatedcontact)couldseemarketsharegainsattheexpenseofPERCgiventheirclearcostbenefitsfortheoperators.AsthemarginsforHPBCandTopConcellsarebetterthanthatforPERC,theirlaunchesshouldbenefitcellmakers,inourview.WeupgradeourratingonLongifromHoldtoBuy,asthecompanylookstolaunchitsHPBCproductinAugust-September2022(source:companyannouncements).WemaintainourBuyratingonTongwei,asweseeastronggrowthoutlookbuildingonitsaggressiveexpansionplanandrisingprofitabilityforitscellbusiness.WemaintainourBuyratingonZhonghuan,becausewelikeitsmarketleadershipinG12wafer.

PERCcouldloseitsmarketdominanceinthreeyears

PERCiscurrentlythemainstreamsolarcelltechnology,accountingforc90%shareoftheglobalc-Sicellproductionin2021.However,weexpectitsmarketsharetodeclineto45%in2025onindustryovercapacity,limitedefficiencyimprovement,andsharpercostreductionofcompetitivetechnologies.ForPERCcell,thereisatheoreticalupperlimitofconversionefficiency,at24.5%,whichisjust1.4pptabovetheefficiencyofanaverageproductnow,at23.1%.ForothercelltechnologieslikeTopCon(withdouble-sidepassivation),thetheoreticallimitismuchhigherat28.7%.ThismeansthattheefficiencygapsbetweenPERCandcompetingtechnologiescouldwidengoingforward,makingtheformerlesscompetitive(Exhibit11).AddingtoPERC’sdisadvantagesisthesharperdeclineinequipmentinvestmentofcompetingtechnologiesrelativetothatofPERC.In2020-21,theperGWinvestmentcostofHJT(Heterojunction)dropped20%,andthatofTopCondropped19%,vsPERC’sperGWinvestmentcostdownbyjust14%(Exhibit4).Suchtrendislikelytocontinueonrisingproductionscalesandtechnologybreakthroughs.

Exhibit1.PERCisinastateofovercapacity

MW202020212022e2023e2024e2025e

GlobalPERCcapacityGlobalPVinstallation

162,900

143,124

262,500

185,828

345,000

219,840

418,500

239,690

442,500

260,640

447,500

272,350

Source:PVinfolink,Longi,HSBCQianhaiSecurities

Exhibit2.WeexpectPERC’sshareofc-Sicellproductiontodeclinefrom91%in

2021to45%in2025

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

202020212022E2023E2024E2025E

PERCOthers

Source:ChinaPVIndustryAssociation

Exhibit3.TheefficiencygapbetweenPERCandcompetingtechnologiescouldwidengoingforward

202020212022E2023E2024E2025E

PERCmono-SicellTopCon

Source:ChinaPVIndustryAssociation

HJTcellIBC

3

500

400

300

200

100

-

5Newtechnology

3,100

620

Equities●EnergyEquipment&Service14June2022

Exhibit4.Equipmentinvestment:Topcon

andHJTsawbiggerdeclinesthanPERCdidin2020-21

RMBm/GW

600

500

400

270

220

194

225

PERC

TopConHJT

2020

2021

Exhibit5.Cellcosts:HPBCandTopCon

areclosetoPERC

Cellcostbreakdown(RMB/W)

1.40

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

-

PERCHPBCTopConHJT(now)HJT

(future)

WafercostCellprocessingcostBOMcostD&A

Source:PVinfolink,HSBCQianhaiResearchSource:SuzhouMaxwell

Industryplayersarerushingtodevelopnewcelltechnologies

令LongiannouncedinFebruary2022thatitwillbuild4GWHPBCsolarcellcapacitiesinTaizhouforRMB1.2bnorRMB300m/GW(scheduledtostartproductioninAugust2022).Thisisontopofthe15GWHPBCcapacitiesitplannedtobuildinXixian.InadditiontotheHPBCtechnology,thecompanyisalsodevelopingotheralternativecelltechnologies.InMarch2022,thecompanyannouncedthatitwillbuilda30GWhigh-efficiencycellprojectinErdosforRMB10bn.Thecompanyhasbrokenanumberofworldrecordsforcellefficiencies.InJuly2021,thecompanyannouncedaworldrecordof25.19%foritsTopConcellefficiency(p-type).InOctober2021,thecompanyannouncedaworldrecordof26.3%foritsHJTcellefficiency.

令A(yù)ikoSolar(600732CH)announcedinMay2022thatitplanstobuild6.5GWABC(allbackcontact)solarcellcapacitiesinZhuhaiforRMB5.4bn.ThecompanyexpectstheefficiencyofitsABCcellproductcouldreach25.5%uponproduction,accordingtoits2021annualreport.Theprojectisscheduledforcompletionin3Q22.

令A(yù)ccordingtoMaexon,asofMarch2022,Zhonghuanholds24%stakeinMaxeon,themarketleaderinIBC(InterdigitatedBackContact)cell.Thecompanyshipped0.9GWIBCpanelsin2021.Thecurrentaverageconversionefficiencyofitscellsis25%whileitsMaxeon7product,indevelopment,hasanupsideto26%efficiency.TheASPofitsIBCpanelswasRMB3.4/Win4Q21.

令A(yù)ccordingtoTongwei’s2021annualreport,Tongweihas1GWtrialproductionlineeachforHJTandTopCon.Thecompanyhasachievedover25%efficiencyforitsHJTcellsandover24.5%efficiencyforitsTopConcells.

Exhibit6.Longi’snewcellprojectsataglance

Completion_______Investment(RMBm)_______

RMBmRMBm/GW

LocationCapacity(GW)Technology

Taizhou4HPBCAug-221,248312

Xixian

15

HPBC

Sep-22

5,512

367

Erdos30Newtechnology202310,300343

Xixian(pilotline)

1.2

HJT

Yinchuan

Qujing(Ph1)

10

5,600

560

Qujing(Ph2-3)20

Source:Companydata,HSBCQianhaiSecurities

4

N-typecell

N-Si

N+

P+

N+

P+

N+

P+

Equities●EnergyEquipment&Service14June2022

TheBCcellfamilyhasthelargestpotentialofefficiencyuplift

HPBC,ABC,andIBCcellsallbelongtotheBC(backcontact)cellfamily.Thegrouphasamedianefficiencyof25%,2pptabovethatofPERC.AccordingtoMaxeon,intraditionalsolarcells,metalcontactsareplacedonbothsidesofthecell.ForBCcells,thecontactsareplacedontherearsideofthecell.ThisallowsBCtoachievehigherefficiencythanthetraditionalcellsgivenreducedshadingonthefrontside.OneoftheadvantageoftheBCtechnologyisthatitcanbecombinedwithothercelltechnologytoachievehigherefficiency.In2014,PanasoniccombinedIBCwiththeHJTtechnologyandachievedarecord-breakingefficiencyof25.6%.In2016,KanekaliftedtheIBC-HJTorHBCcellefficiencyto26.3%,representingthehighestefficiencyamongallalternativecelltechnologies.

MachineshavebeendevelopedforthecommercialisationoftheBCcelltechnology

BCcellsneedlasermachinestoperformelement-addingandmetalisedgridlinemaking.Also,laserslottingisrequiredduetoamoresophisticatedarchitectureontherearsidecomparingwiththatofatraditionalcell.AccordingtoDRLaser’sannouncementdated19May2022,frommid-May2021tomid-May2022,DRLaserhassignedcontractstotalingRMB670mwithLongitosupplythelatterwithlaserequipmentusedoncellproductionlines.WebelievethisisforLongi’sHPBCprojectsinTaizhouandXixian.DRLaserhasdevelopedthelaserprintingtechnologywhichcanmakethegridlinesthinner,therebyreducetheconsumptionofsilverpaste,whichaccountsforc8%costofaPERCcellandc10%costofaTopConcell.

Exhibit7.BCcellshavemoresophisticatedarchitectureontherear

IBC(InterdigitatedBackContact)

Ag/Alelectrode

textureplusanti-reflection

coating

Lightlydopedfront

diffusionlayer:reduces

recombinationloss

P+(Boron)

N-Si

N+(phosphorusBSF)

PassivatingSiO2layer:reducessurfacerecombinationloss

positivecontact

negativecontact

Agelectrode

Backsidemirror:reduces

backlightabsorptionand

trapslight

SiN/SiO2

Al2O3layer

SiNcappinglayer

Recombinationloss:lossesincurredwhenelectronsandelectronholesrecombine

Source:Maxeon,HSBCQianhaiSecurities

BothHPBCandTopConarepromisingtechnologiesinthepost-PERCera…

ThepotentialcostsavingsmakebothHPBCandTopConattractivealternativestoPERC.TopConcellscostRMB0.05/W(or1%oftotalPVsystemcost)morethanPERCcellstomake.However,astheefficiencyofTopConcellsat24%is1ppthigherthatofPERCat23%,itsaves3%costforthePVsystem(RMB0.1-0.2/W)(oranetcostsavingof2%afterconsideringhigherproductioncostsforTopCon).Forthisreason,TopConmoduleshavebeenpricedatRMB0.1-0.2/WpremiumstoPERCmodulesYTD(source:PVinfolink).

5

Equities●EnergyEquipment&Service

14June2022

WeestimatetheefficiencyofHPBCcellsat25%incommercialproduction,closetothemedianleveloftheBCgroup.HPBCcellsshouldcostRMB0.05-0.1/W(or1-2%oftotalPVsystemcost)morethanPERCcellstomake,weestimate(Exhibit10).Whilethewafercosts(70-80%costofcell)ofHPBCcellscouldbesimilartothatofPERC,theD&Acost(2-5%costofcell)oftheformercouldbeupto2xthatofthelattergiventheformers’higherequipmentspending.AsshowninExhibit6,theperGWinvestmentcostofLongi’sTaizhouandXixianHPBCprojectsarecRMB300-400m/GW,1.5-2xofthatofPERC(atRMB200m/GW).Witha2pptefficiencyimprovementoverPERC,HPBCshouldsave6%costforthePVsystem(RMB0.2-0.3/W)(oranetcostsavingof4-5%afterconsideringhigherproductioncostsforHPBC)(Exhibit8).WehenceexpectHPBCmodulestobepricedatRMB0.2-0.3/WpremiumstothePERCmodules.

Exhibit8.1pptincreaseincellefficiencybringsabout3%costsavingforthesystem

_________________Cellefficiency____________________________________PVsystemcost__________________

%ChangeRMB/W%

22%

Unchanged

4.27

0%

23%

+1ppt

4.14

-3%

24%

+2ppt

4.01

-6%

25%

+3ppt

3.89

-9%

26%

+4ppt

3.79

-11%

27%

+5ppt

3.69

-14%

28%

+6ppt

3.59

-16%

Source:PVinfolink,HSBCQianhaiSecurities

Exhibit9.TopConcellcostbreakdown

CellD&A

processing3%

cost

5%

BOMcost

13%

Wafercost

79%

Source:HSBCQianhaiestimates

Exhibit10.HPBCcellcostbreakdown

Cell

processing

cost

5%

D&A

5%

BOMcost

15%

Wafercost75%

Source:HSBCQianhaiestimates

Exhibit11.Solarcelltechnologycomparisons

PERC

TOPCon

HJT

BC

__________________________________________

ClassicIBCTBCHBC

Labconversionefficiency

24.06%(LONGi)

26.0%(Fraunhofer)

26.3%(LONGi)25

.2%(Sunpower)

26.1%(Fraunhofer)

26.63%(Kaneka)

Efficiency(commercialproduction)

22.8%-23.2%

23.5%-24.5%

23.5%-25%23.5%-24.5%24.5%-25.5%25%-26.5%

Capacity(2022)

Above200GW

Above30GW

Under10GW

Under4GW

c3GW

c1GW

Suppliers

Mainstream

LG

Panasonic,SunpremeLG，SunpowerFraunhoferKaneka,Panasonic

Technologydifficulties

Low

Medium-to-high

Medium-to-high

Medium-to-high

Medium-to-high

Highest

Productioncost(RMB/W)

0.6-0.8

0.7-0.9

1.0-2.01.0-2.01.0-2.01.2-2.2

Agpasteusage(mg/slice)

80

100-120

200-220

LowerthanbifacialPERC

LowerthanbifacialTOPCon

LowerthanHJT

Productionprocedures

Less

Many

LeastManyManyMany

Waferthickness(μm)

170-190

150-160

90-140

130-150

130-150

90-140

Equipmentcost(RMBm/GW)

200

220

400-450

300300500

Compatibilitywithexistinglines

Compatible

PartlycompatiblewithPERC

CompletelyincompatiblewithPERC

PartlycompatiblewithPERC

CompatiblewithTOPCon

CompatiblewithHJT

ConclusionWeakness

Ceilingtoefficiencyimprovement

Lowcell-to-moduleefficiency

HighequipmentcostHighestproductiondifficultyandcost,unabletobemadebifacial

Strength

Cost-effective

Highbifacialityat70-85%

Leastproduction

procedures

Highestconversionefficiency

Source:Maxeon,PVinfolink,HSBCQianhaiSecurities

6

Equities●EnergyEquipment&Service14June2022

…andthetwotechnologiescouldco-existinthemediumterm

OneofthedisadvantagesofBCcellsisthattheycannotbemadebi-facialwhileothertechnologieslikeTopConcan.Abifacialpanelcanincreaseefficiencyby11%(i.e.from24%to26-27%forTopConcells)comparedwithamono-facialpanel.Thismeansforutility-scalesolarprojectswherebi-facialapplicationsarecommon,TopConpanels(bi-facial)couldbeasefficientasBCpanels(mono-facial).However,inresidentialroof-topprojects,wherebifacialapplicationsarerare,BCpanelswouldbemoreefficientthanTopConpanels.ThisiswhyLongi,whileaddingHPBCcapacities,isalsodevelopingtheTopContechnology.WehenceexpectBCandothercelltechnologiestoco-existinthemediumterm,addressingdifferentcustomerneeds.

Whatdidthemarketmiss?

Longi:Thesharepricehasdropped16%sinceSeptember2021(vsCSI300down14%duringthesameperiod)onthede-ratingoftheA-sharesolarsector.WebelievethemarkethasnotfactoredintheearningscontributionfromLongi’sHPBCprojectsin2023eonwards.WeexpectLongi’sHPBCmoduleproducttogenerateRMB27bnrevenueinboth2023eand2024e.Thisleadstoour2023-24eearningsestimatesbeing6-9%aboveconsensus.

Zhonghuan:Thesharepricehasdropped19%sinceSeptember2021(vsCSI300down14%duringthesameperiod)onthede-ratingoftheA-sharesolarsector.WebelievethemarkethasnotfactoredinthestrongdemandoutlookforZhonghuan’sG12waferproduct.Our2022-24eearningsestimatesare9-12%aboveconsensus,aswearemorebullishonthecontributionfromthecompany’sG12waferproduct.Webelievethisisnotintheshareprice.

Tongwei:Thesharepricehasdropped19%sinceSeptember2021(vsCSI300down14%duringthesameperiod)onthede-ratingoftheA-sharesolarsector.WebelievethemarkethasnotpricedinrisingprofitabilityforTongwei’scellbusinessin2023-24eoneconomiesofscaleanddecliningupstreamwafercosts.Our2022-24eearningsestimatesare3-11%aboveconsensus,aswearemorebullishonthecontributionfromthecompany’scellbusiness.

Exhibit12.HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesestimatesvsconsensusestimates

HSBCQianhaiestimates_______Windconsensus_____________Difference________

CompanyRMBm2022e2023e2024e2022e2023e2024e2022e2023e2024e

ZhonghuanRevenue82,92775,16277,52078,97970,24575,2625%7%3%

Netprofit4,6495,2266,0064,2664,7945,3629%9%12%

LongiRevenue112,520116,191117,849108,192108,590114,4174%7%3%

Netprofit11,20415,63517,61311,20014,34416,6160%9%6%

TongweiRevenue96,483102,133114,06287,71298,205107,60610%4%6%

Netprofit12,63013,50615,26212,26212,74213,7493%6%11%

Source:Companydata,Wind,HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesestimates

7

Equities●EnergyEquipment&Service14June2022

Valuationandrisks

ValuationRisks

Zhonghuan002129CH

Buy

Currentprice:

RMB45.57

Targetprice:

RMB81.00

Up/downside:

78%

WebaseourtargetpriceofRMB81.00(previouslyRMB69.40)onaDCFvaluationmodel.Keyassumptionsare:(1)Costofequityof8.2%(unchanged),derivedfromarisk-freerateof2.0%,amarketriskpremiumof6.0%andabetaof1.03(allunchanged).(2)After-taxcostofdebtof4.3%(unchanged).(3)Debt-to-capitalratioof33%(previously30%).(4)Operatingcashflow(beforechangesinworkingcapital)CAGRof17%in2020-29e(previously16%).(5)CapexofRMB7bneachin2022-24e,respectively,andRMB3.5-4bn(unchanged)peryearin2025-29e.(6)Terminalgrowthrateof2%(unchanged).With78%upsidefromthecurrentsharepricetoourtargetprice,wemaintainourBuyratingonthestock.

Keydownsiderisks

1.Weaker-than-expectedPVdemand

2.China-UStradetensions,whichcouldhinderequipmentprocurementfromUSsuppliers

3.Riskofequitydilutionfromfundraisingexercises

4.Weaker-than-expectedsemidemand

5.Greater-than-expectedcutstothewaferASP

CoreyChan*[S1700518100001]|corey.chan@|+862160813801

Tongwei

600438CH

Buy

Currentprice:

RM53.53

Targetprice:

RMB68.00

Up/downside:

27%

WebaseourtargetpriceofRMB68.00(previouslyRMB54.40)onaDCFvaluationmodel.Keyassumptionsare:(1)Costofequityof10.5%(unchanged),derivedfromarisk-freerateof2.0%,amarketriskpremiumof6.0%andabetaof1.42(allunchanged).(2)After-taxcostofdebtof4.3%(unchanged).(3)Debt-to-capitalratioof15%(previously6%).(4)Operatingcashflow(beforechangesinworkingcapital)CAGRof19%(previously17%)in2020-29e.(5)CapexofRMB16.2bnin2022e(previouslyRMB16.4bn),andRMB19.7bnin2023e(previouslyRMB13.3bn),RMB13.5bnin2024e(previouslyRMB8bn)andRMB3-4bn(unchanged)peryearin2025-29e.(6)Terminalgrowthrateof2%(unchanged).With27%upsidefromthecurrentsharepricetoourtargetprice,wemaintainourBuyratingonthestock.

Keydownsiderisks

1.Weaker-than-expectedpolysiliconprices

2.EvolutionofcelltechnologyundermininginvestmentinPERC(passivatedemitterandrearcell)

3.Greater-than-expectedcutstocellASP

CoreyChan*[S1700518100001]|corey.chan@|+862160813801

Longi

601012CH

Buy

Currentprice:

RMB61.06

Targetprice:

RMB76.90

Up/downside:

26%

WebaseourtargetpriceofRMB76.90(previouslyRMB51.86)onaDCFvaluationmodel.Keyassumptionsare:(1)Costofequityof9.0%(unchanged),derivedfromarisk-freerateof2.0%(unchanged),amarketriskpremiumof6.0%andabetaof1.16.(bothunchanged).(2)After-taxcostofdebtof4.3%(unchanged).(3)Debt-to-capitalratioof11%(previously12%).(4)Operatingcashflow(beforechangesinworkingcapital)CAGRof18%(previously12%)in2020-29e.(5)CapexofRMB16.1bnin2022e(previouslyRMB7.4bn),RMB26bnin2023e(previouslyRMB7.3bn),RMB11.5bnin2024e(previouslyRMB5.3bn),andRMB2-3bn(unchanged)peryearin2025-29e.(6)Terminalgrowthrateof2%(unchanged).OurTPimplies26%upsidefromthecurrentprice,andweraisethecompanyfromHoldtoBuy.

Keydownsiderisks

1.Weaker-than-expectedPVdemand

2.Riskofequitydilutionfromfundraisingexercises

3.Greater-than-expectedcutstowaferASP

CoreyChan*[S1700518100001]|corey.chan@|+862160813801

Note:Pricedat10June2022

*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulations

Source:Bloomberg,HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesestimates

Equities●EnergyEquipment&Service

14June2022

8

Exhibit13.Globalsolarcomptable

CompanynameStockCodeCurRatingTargetPriceClosePriceMarketCap3MADTV___PE(x)_______PB(x)________ROE________DY______EV/EBITDA__EPSCAGR

USDbnUSDm2022e2023e2022e2023e2022e2023e2022e2023e2022e2023e2021-23e

Polysiliconproducer

GCL-PolyEnergy**DAQONewEnergy**TBEA*

OCI

WackerChemieAG**Tongwei*

13%14%7%15%14%22%

18%26%11%15%16%26%

-9%-26%-27% 9%-18%28%

6.03.310.53.66.211.6

3.33 62.22 25.48133000.00 168.4053.53

3800HKDQUS

600089CH

010060KSWCHGR

600438CH

11.504.6414.392.489.2435.92

9.64.920.25.213.120.4

10.36.431.34.313.819.1

1.71.02.10.82.34.4

1.50.82.00.72.14.0

5.82.610.34.36.111.6

HKDUSDCNYKRWEURCNY

NA2.0%1.1%1.6%3.4%2.6%

NA642173121334

-

-

BuyNR

-

Buy

-

-

28.40NA

-

68.00

0.0%

2.4%

1.8%

1.6%

3.7%

2.5%

Crystallinesiliconwaferproducer

Zhonghuan*

002129CH

CNY

Buy

81.00

45.73

22.03

267

31.8

28.3

4.1

3.6

14%

14%

0.3%

0.3%

13.6

11.5

14%

Longi*

601012CH

CNY

Buy

76.90

61.06

68.97

698

41.9

30.1

7.3

6.0

20%

22%

0.4%

0.5%

29.5

21.4

31%

Sino-AmericanSiliconProducts

5483TT

TWD

NR

NA

171.00

3.39

38

7.8

6.7

2.6

2.1

37%

33%

7.5%

9.8%

2.7

2.2

23%

Solarcellandmoduleproducer

CanadianSolar

CSIQUS

USD

NR

NA

32.34

2.07

31

7.6

8.7

0.8

0.7

12%

13%

0.0%

NA

7.6

7.2

11%

JinkoSolar

JKSUS

USD

NR

NA

62.11

3.04

66

12.0

10.7

1.1

NA

11%

NA

NA

NA

10.1

9.7

34%

FirstSolarInc

FSLRUS

USD

NR

NA

68.00

7.25

121

33.5

15.9

1.2

1.1

4%

7%

0.0%

0.0%

10.3

6.4

NA

Othersolarmaterialandequipment

603806CH

300316CH

FirstAppliedMaterial*

Jingsheng*

CNYCNY

HoldHold

90.7158.10

76.3459.30

15.1511.37

97

78

33.032.6

31.329.2

6.88.8

5.77.1

23%31%

20%27%

0.5%0.6%

0.5%0.7%

27.226.0

24.822.5

22%30%

Average

19.5

17.6

3.2

2.9

19%

17%

1.6%

2.1%

12.0

10.5

9%

Note:Pricedasat10June2022.

*CoveredbyHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesandHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesestimatesareused.**CoveredbyHSBCGlobalResearch,pleasegototheHSBCGlobalResearchwebsiteforthelatestreport.NR–NotRated.NA–NotApplicable/Available.

Source:Bloombergconsensus(forNotRatedstocksandHSBCGlobalResearchcoveredstocks),HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesestimates(forHSBCQianhaiSecuritiescoveredstocks)

9

Equities●EnergyEquipment&Service14June2022

ZhonghuanSemiconductor(002129CH,RMB45.57,Buy,TP

RMB81.00)

WeseestrongdemandforZhonghuan’sG12waferproduct,giventhecostitsavesforthesolarsupplychain.In2021,Zhonghuancommandeda74%shareoftheG12wafermarket.Thecompany’s24%stakeinMaxeonalsogivesitstrategicadvantageoverpeersintheIBCcellmarket.Thevaluation,at2x2023eEV/S,iswellbelowthatofitssemi-waferpeer,