KevinPorter凱文波特ExeterAssociates公司Energy

U.S.WindIntegrationStudies

and

DoingaWindIntegrationStudy

美國風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)研究

及

研究方法KevinPorter凱文波特ExeterAssociates公司EnergyFoundationWindIntegrationMeeting并網(wǎng)經(jīng)驗(yàn)介紹會(huì)能源基金會(huì)July2,2010PurposeofPresentation

介紹會(huì)的目的Determinewhetherthereisinterestinlearningmoreabouthowtodoawindintegrationstudy.了解大家是否有興趣進(jìn)一步學(xué)習(xí)開展風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)問題研究的研究方法。DeterminewhetherthereisinterestinholdingaworkshoponwindintegrationstudymethodsinBeijinginDecember.了解是否需要于今年12月在北京再組織一個(gè)風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)研究方法介紹會(huì)ConsiderinterestinconductingawindintegrationstudyinChina.考慮一下在中國開展風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)研究的意義ExeterAssociates,Inc.2Overviewof

U.S.WindIntegrationStudies

美國風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)研究概況3ExeterAssociates,Inc.Overviewof

U.S.WindIntegrationStudies

美國風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)研究概況4ExeterAssociates,Inc.Severalutilities,statesandregionaltransmissionorganizationhaveconductedwindintegrationstudies,generallybeforelarge-scalewinddevelopmenthasoccurredOveradozensuchwindintegrationstudiessincethelate1990s,andmoreareplannedActualoperatingexperiencehasbeenlimited,thereforestudieshavebeenprospective–modelingapotentialfuturepowersystemwithcertainamountsofwindgenerationStudiesfocusedonreliability,operationalandeconomicimpactsofhigherlevelsofwindpenetrationEveryU.S.windintegrationstudyisdifferent,butsomecommonthemesareemergingStudieshaveevolvedfromwhetheritispossibletoincorporatewindtohowandatwhatestimatedcostAsexperienceisgained,studiesarestartingtofocusonpotentialsolutionstointegratinghigherlevelsofwindgeneration總的來說，在大規(guī)模并網(wǎng)實(shí)際發(fā)生之前，美國的一些電力公司、州及區(qū)域輸電組織已經(jīng)開展了風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)問題的研究。上世紀(jì)90年代至今這樣的研究做了有十幾個(gè)，目前計(jì)劃開展更多此類研究。由于實(shí)際運(yùn)行經(jīng)驗(yàn)的局限，前瞻性研究變得更為重要---模擬出接入一定規(guī)模風(fēng)電情景下的未來的電力系統(tǒng)研究基本聚焦在大規(guī)模接入風(fēng)電后系統(tǒng)的可靠性問題、運(yùn)行影響和經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。每個(gè)研究都有所區(qū)別，但更多的共同關(guān)注問題已經(jīng)開始顯現(xiàn)。研究的重心已經(jīng)從原來研究是否可能接入這么多風(fēng)電，轉(zhuǎn)為研究如何以及在多大經(jīng)濟(jì)代價(jià)下接入這些風(fēng)電。由于已經(jīng)有了一些經(jīng)驗(yàn)基礎(chǔ)，研究重點(diǎn)已經(jīng)開始集中在去尋找接入更高比例風(fēng)電的潛在解決辦法。IntegrationCostEstimates

并網(wǎng)成本估算5ExeterAssociates,Inc.Windintegrationstudieshavefoundcostwillgenerallybeunder$5.00/MWhforwindcapacitypenetrationsupto20%;Mostofthesecostsarefromunitcommitment;PacificNorthwestwindstudieshavetendedtoshowcostsupto$10/MWh–Nosub-hourlyschedulingormarketsGreaterrelianceonregulationversusspinningor

non-spinningreservesTendstoincreasecostsU.S.hasmoreflexiblepowersystemthanChina研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，風(fēng)電接入比例在20%左右或以下的情況下，并網(wǎng)成本一般在每千度電5美元左右（0.5美分/千瓦時(shí)，即每度電人民幣3分4厘左右）。機(jī)組組合成本占這些成本的大部分；“西北太平洋”的研究曾給出一個(gè)接近每千度電10美元左右的并網(wǎng)成本（1美分/千瓦時(shí)，即每度電人民幣6分8厘左右）–沒有小時(shí)內(nèi)調(diào)度或相應(yīng)市場更多地依賴調(diào)節(jié)而非旋轉(zhuǎn)備用或非旋轉(zhuǎn)備用傾向于提高成本美國的靈活性電源多于中國WindIntegrationCosts

DependentonSeveralFactors

影響風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)成本的幾個(gè)因素6ExeterAssociates,Inc.SizeofthebalancingareaLargebalancingareamakesiteasiertointegratewind,astherewillbeadeeperstockofgenerationtodrawfromSubhourlymarketsaccesstheflexibilityinherentinmanyconventionalgeneratorsandreducesrelianceonregulationinfollowingwind’svariabilityResourcemixAresourcemixwithmoreflexibilityinrampingupanddownandoperatingatdifferentdispatchpointswillmakewindintegrationeasierDepthandtypeofancillaryservicesAwell-functioninganddeepmarketforancillaryservices(presentinmostregionaltransmissionorganizations)willmakeiteasierandlessexpensivetointegratewindThegeographicconcentrationofwindprojectsGreaterspatialdiversityofwindprojectscanlessenthevariabilityinwindoutputandlowerwindintegrationcosts平衡區(qū)域的大小大平衡區(qū)接入風(fēng)電更容易，因?yàn)榭梢岳冒l(fā)電容量大的優(yōu)勢時(shí)間間隔小于1小時(shí)的電力市場可以利用常規(guī)電源的靈活性，減少對調(diào)節(jié)風(fēng)電波動(dòng)的依賴。資源組合資源組合具有更好的爬坡（上下）靈活性，可以根據(jù)不同的調(diào)度要求運(yùn)行，從而減少風(fēng)電接入的難度。輔助服務(wù)的深度和類型完善、繁榮的輔助服務(wù)市場(多數(shù)由區(qū)域輸電組織提供)可以減少風(fēng)電接入的難度和成本風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目地理分布的密集度風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目在空間上的分散式分布可以減少風(fēng)電的出力波動(dòng)并降低并網(wǎng)成本KeyResultsfromMajorWindIntegrationCostStudies

主要風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)成本研究的主要結(jié)論

7ExeterAssociates,Inc.Date時(shí)間Study研究WindCapacityPenetration風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量整體占比IntegrationCost($/MWh)并網(wǎng)成本(美元$/千度電)Regulation調(diào)節(jié)LoadFollowing負(fù)荷跟蹤.UnitCommit機(jī)組組合GasSupply天然氣供應(yīng)TOTAL總計(jì)2003Xcel-UWIG3.5%00.411.44Na1.852003WeEnergies29%1.020.151.75Na2.922004Xcel-MNDOC15%0.23na4.37Na4.602005PacifiCorp-200411%01.483.16Na4.642006Calif.(multi-year)*4%0.45tracetracena0.452006Xcel-PSCo15%0.20na3.321.454.972006MN-MISO*31%nananana4.412007PugetSoundEnergy12%nananana6.942007Pub.Service15%0.372.651.06na4.082007AvistaUtilities30%1.434.403.00na8.842007IdahoPower20%nananana7.922007PacifiCorp-200718%na1.104.00na5.102008Xcel-PSCo*20%nananana8.562009Bonneville(BPA)+36%0.221.14nana5.702009PacifiCorp-2009++22%nananana11.852009PortlandGen.Elect.27%nananana11.752010EWITS+++48%nana1.61na4.542010Nebraska63%nananana1.75*Seenotesfrom2008WindTechnologiesReport詳見2008風(fēng)電技術(shù)報(bào)告注解+Costsin$/MWhassume31%capacityfactor.Theasidefromregulationandfollowingreserves,thecostofBPA’simbalancereservesare$4.33/MWh.++Thisintegrationcostassumesa$45/tonCO2tax.WithalowerCO2taxof$/ton,theintegrationcostdecreasesto$9.96/MWh+++UnitcommitmentcostislistedinEWITSasthecostofday-aheadwindforecasterror,remainingintegrationcostsareforshortertermreserves8ExeterAssociates,Inc.Solutions:Implement

aWindForecastingSystem

解決辦法：應(yīng)用風(fēng)電預(yù)測系統(tǒng)9ExeterAssociates,Inc.Ingeneral,windforecastingisvitaloncewindpenetrationsbyenergyreaches10%LowerifbalancingareaissmallorifresourcemixisnotoverlyflexibleAlthoughwindforecastingisnotperfect,today’sstate-of-the-artwindforecastswillbehelpfultogridoperatorsPotentiallargesavingsinunitcommitmentandfuelconsumptioncostsPromiseforfutureperformanceimprovementsinwindforecastingSeveralgridoperatorsintheUnitedStatesareimplementingwindforecastingEvolutiontowardscentralwindforecastingandawayfromdecentralizedwindforecasting一般來講，一旦風(fēng)電在電力供應(yīng)中上到10%，預(yù)測就變得尤為重要平衡區(qū)面積不大或資源組合不是特別靈活的情況下，即便風(fēng)電比重低于10%，預(yù)測的作用也非常關(guān)鍵盡管風(fēng)電預(yù)測還不能盡善盡美，當(dāng)前的風(fēng)電預(yù)測技術(shù)對電網(wǎng)運(yùn)營商也是非常有幫助的有希望節(jié)約大筆的機(jī)組組合和燃料消耗成本未來提高風(fēng)電預(yù)測水平的承諾美國幾家電網(wǎng)運(yùn)營商正在進(jìn)行風(fēng)電預(yù)測風(fēng)電預(yù)測的趨勢正在由分散式預(yù)測向集中式預(yù)測發(fā)展演變。WesternWindandSolarIntegrationStudy(2010)

西部風(fēng)電及太陽能并網(wǎng)研究(2010)“Usingstate-of-the-artwindandsolarforecastsandunitcommitmentisessentialandwouldreduceannualWECCoperatingcostsbyupto$5billion($4billionin2009$)or$12-20/MWh($10-17/MWhin2009$)ofrenewableenergy,comparedtoignoringrenewablesintheunitcommitmentprocess.”“Perfectforecastswouldreduceannualcostsbyanother$500million($425millionin2009$)or$1-2/MWh($0.9-1.7/MWhin2009$)ofrenewableenergy,10ExeterAssociates,Inc.運(yùn)用當(dāng)前最先進(jìn)的風(fēng)電和太陽能預(yù)測技術(shù)以及機(jī)組組合非常必要；與忽視可再生能源電力在機(jī)組組合里的作用相比，充分運(yùn)用這些，可以為WECC每年減少多達(dá)50億美元的運(yùn)行成本（2009年是40億），或者，幫助可再生能源減少一定的單位發(fā)電成本：每千度電可減少12到20美元的成本（2009年實(shí)際每千度電減少10到17美元的單位發(fā)電成本）“完美的預(yù)測還能把全年運(yùn)行成本再減少5億美元（2009年是4.25億），或，幫助可再生能源再減少單位發(fā)電成本：每千度電可再減少1到2美元的成本（2009年再減少0.9到1.7美元）Solutions:Develop

MoreFlexibleElectricityMarkets

解決方案：建設(shè)更靈活的電力市場11ExeterAssociates,Inc.OperationalflexibilityvaluabletooperatorsbutoflittlevaluetopowersuppliersunlesstheyaresomehowcompensatedMarketandpolicychangeswilllikelybenecessaryExpandingancillaryservicemarketsIncentivesforgreatergeneratorflexibility(existingandnewplants)Changestomarketrequirements,(e.g.,loadfollowingisnotacompensatedancillaryservice)Makechangestoaccommodatewindramps,whichmorecloselyresemblelargeloadrampsMorecloselyalignedwith10-30minutenon-spinningandsupplementalreserves;currentrulesrequirethesetobein-servicefor1-2hourswhenwindrampscanoccuroverseveralhoursForcesoperatorstousemoreexpensiveregulationserviceinsteadMultiplewaystodothis,dependingonelectricitysystemstructure靈活運(yùn)行對電網(wǎng)運(yùn)營商來講很有價(jià)值，但是對電力供應(yīng)商來講卻不是這樣，除非可以在一定程度上給他們補(bǔ)償市場和政策變化很可能無法避免擴(kuò)展輔助服務(wù)市場鼓勵(lì)發(fā)電商加強(qiáng)靈活運(yùn)行的激勵(lì)機(jī)制(新、老電廠)調(diào)整市場要求/標(biāo)準(zhǔn),(比如負(fù)荷跟蹤不作為付費(fèi)輔助服務(wù))做出調(diào)整以適應(yīng)風(fēng)電爬坡特性（很類似大型線性負(fù)荷）與10-30分鐘非旋轉(zhuǎn)備用和補(bǔ)充電源更緊密地配合；現(xiàn)行規(guī)定是當(dāng)風(fēng)電爬坡可能持續(xù)幾小時(shí)的情況可以開動(dòng)使用這些備用設(shè)施1-2小時(shí)要求運(yùn)行商采用其他更昂貴的調(diào)節(jié)服務(wù)實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo)的方法有很多，能采用哪些方法取決于電力系統(tǒng)的結(jié)構(gòu)Solutions:Operate

OverLargerMarketOperationAreas

解決辦法：擴(kuò)大市場運(yùn)行區(qū)域12ExeterAssociates,Inc.Thereareabout140balancingareasintheU.S.withwidevariationsinsize,generationresources,andloadEachmustbalancegenerationandloadwithinitsareaLargerbalancingareashavemoreaccesstogeneratingresourcestoprovideancillaryservicesLargerbalancingareascanalsotakeadvantageofthegeographicdiversityofwindresources,helpingtosmoothwindvariabilityISOsandRTOsnaturallycapturethebenefitsoflargebalancingareasSmallerareascangainsomeofthosebenefitsthroughsharingagreementssuchastheACEDiversityInterchangethatpoolsareacontrolerroramongutilitiesinthewesternU.S.美國有140個(gè)左右的平衡區(qū)，大小、電源結(jié)構(gòu)和負(fù)荷情況各不相同每個(gè)平衡區(qū)都必須平衡本區(qū)域內(nèi)的發(fā)電運(yùn)行和負(fù)荷大平衡區(qū)有更多的電源資源可供調(diào)配以提供更好的輔助服務(wù)大平衡區(qū)可以利用地理跨度大的優(yōu)勢，削弱風(fēng)資源變化的影響，平滑風(fēng)電出力波動(dòng)ISOs和RTOs有大平衡區(qū)的先天優(yōu)勢小平衡區(qū)也可以通過分享協(xié)議，如“ACE一體化交換”，擴(kuò)展平衡區(qū)域，在美國西部的電力公司間更大范圍地調(diào)度。ExeterAssociates,Inc.13Lessthan1/3ofregulationisnecessaryifsub-hourlyschedulingisutilizied如果應(yīng)用小時(shí)內(nèi)調(diào)度，風(fēng)電波動(dòng)的調(diào)節(jié)需求只有不到原來的三分之一WindIntegrationCostsLower

inLargerBalancingAreas

大平衡區(qū)的風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)成本更低Date時(shí)間Study研究單位ISO/RTOWindLevel風(fēng)電占比IntegrationCost并網(wǎng)成本($/MWh)EnergyMarketInterval能源市場時(shí)間頻度March2005NYISOISO/RTO10%VeryLow5minuteDecember2006Minnesota/MISOISO/RTO31%$4.415minuteMarch2007AvistaNo30%$8.841hourMarch2007IdahoPowerNo30%$7.921hourSummary

總結(jié)Windcontributesabout1-2%oftotalU.S.electricitygenerationasof2008AnumberofutilitiesareaddingsignificantamountsofwindcapacityOveradozenwindintegrationstudieshavebeenconductedtoassessthetechnicalabilityandfeasibilitytoincorporatewindenergyIngeneral,studieshaveprogressedfrom“canitbedone”to

“howandatwhatcost”Thestudieshavefoundthatlargeinterconnectedpowersystemscanaccommodatehighlevelsofvariableenergyby:ImplementingawindforecastingsystemAcquiringflexiblegeneratingresourcesInstitutingnewoperatingstrategiesforminimumloadhoursandother

highriskperiods;andCreatinglargerbalancingareas,newmarketrules,andgridcodes15ExeterAssociates,Inc.截止2008年，美國的風(fēng)電占整體電力供應(yīng)的1-2%左右很多電力公司新增大量的風(fēng)電裝機(jī)開展了十來個(gè)風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)研究，評估接入風(fēng)電的技術(shù)能力和可行性總的來講，研究的內(nèi)容已經(jīng)從“能不能”發(fā)展到“怎么做、多大代價(jià)做”研究表明，通過以下辦法，大規(guī)?；ヂ?lián)電網(wǎng)能夠接納較多的間歇式電源:應(yīng)用風(fēng)電預(yù)測系統(tǒng)利用靈活性電源針對負(fù)荷低谷和其他高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)段制定新的運(yùn)行辦法創(chuàng)造大平衡區(qū)，新市場規(guī)則和并網(wǎng)規(guī)定DoingaWindIntegrationStudy

進(jìn)行風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)研究16ExeterAssociates,Inc.TypicalStudyScope

典型的研究范圍17ExeterAssociates,Inc.IdentifyoperationalandcostissuesfromincreasinglevelsofwindpenetrationUsuallymultiplescenariosofbase,10%,20%,30%Note:Thestudyisaboutnetwindimpacts(loadminuswind),notjustwindalone,asthevariationsofloadandwindpartiallycanceleachotheroutDeterminescopeofstudy(allofChina,partofChina)IfnotmodelingallofChina,determinehowtomodelareasexternaltostudyAllassumptions,datainputs,andstudyresultsshouldbepublictoencouragemaximumparticipationandoverallsupportofthestudyresults找出風(fēng)電比例提高后帶來的運(yùn)行和經(jīng)濟(jì)問題通常按照風(fēng)電整體電源占比10%,20%,30%的幾種情景開展研究注意:研究這些問題的時(shí)候，關(guān)注的是風(fēng)電的“凈影響”（剔除了風(fēng)電和負(fù)荷能互沖的部分），而不僅僅是風(fēng)電本身的影響，因?yàn)樨?fù)荷變化也可以抵消一部分風(fēng)電的影響。確定研究范圍（整個(gè)中國，或部分地區(qū)）如果不是針對整個(gè)中國研究，則需確定如何選取研究目標(biāo)區(qū)域所有的假設(shè)、數(shù)據(jù)和研究結(jié)果應(yīng)該對外公布以實(shí)現(xiàn)廣泛參與，促進(jìn)研究結(jié)論得到認(rèn)可和支持TypicalStudyScope(2)

典型的研究范圍（2）Identifychangesinproductioncosts(andcostvolatility)fromhigherlevelsofwindpenetrationIdentifychangesinrequirementsforreservesovermultipletimeframesConsiderwhetherexistinggeneratingresources(i.e.,coal,naturalgas,hydro)canaccommodatehigherlevelsofwindgeneration18ExeterAssociates,Inc.風(fēng)電比重加大后，發(fā)電成本的變化（成本波動(dòng)）不同時(shí)段對備用電源要求的變化考慮現(xiàn)有電源結(jié)構(gòu)（比如煤電、天然氣發(fā)電、水電）是否能接納更多的風(fēng)電WhataWindIntegrationStudy

DoesNotDo(UnlessDesignedtoDoSo)

風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)研究可以忽略哪些問題

（除非設(shè)計(jì)意圖如此）AdditionalmaintenanceandforcedoutagesandderatesDegradationofheatratefromramping,cyclingandrangeofoperation19ExeterAssociates,Inc.附加維護(hù)、被動(dòng)停發(fā)和減發(fā)爬坡、循環(huán)和運(yùn)行范圍引起的熱效率下降WindIntegrationStudies

GenerallyHaveMultipleParts

風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)研究通常包含幾個(gè)部分Productioncostmodeling(forhourlysimulationsofpowerflows,costsanddispatch)Statisticalanalysis(fordetermininghourlydeviationsinnetloadfromaddingwind,andfordetermining

sub-hourlychanges)LoadflowanalysisTransmissionplanningandsiting20ExeterAssociates,Inc.發(fā)電成本模型（潮流、成本和調(diào)度的小時(shí)間隔模擬）統(tǒng)計(jì)分析(確定因增加風(fēng)電導(dǎo)致的凈負(fù)荷每小時(shí)偏離，及小時(shí)內(nèi)變化)潮流分析輸電線路規(guī)劃和選擇OrganizationalSet-Up

分工Studytime-consumingandlabor-intensiveTypicalstudytime1year,andcantakelongerNeedsingleorganizationtoleadandtakeresponsibilityWithhelpfromotherorganizationsandfromTechnicalReviewCommitteeConsiderwhodoestheworkCouldbedonein-housebuthardtojugglewindintegrationstudywithotherresponsibilitiesWorktypicallyisoutsourcedtomultipleconsultantsPowersystemsconsultantTransmission/loadflowsconsultantWindresourceandforecastingconsultant21ExeterAssociates,Inc.研究所需時(shí)間和人員付出一般來講需要一年時(shí)間，可能還要更長需要一家機(jī)構(gòu)牽頭和負(fù)責(zé)同時(shí)需要其他機(jī)構(gòu)和技術(shù)審查委員會(huì)的幫助考慮由誰來做可以內(nèi)部來做，但是很難兼顧風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)研究以外的其他問題和事情通常把一些工作外包給多個(gè)咨詢專家/公司電力系統(tǒng)專家輸變電/潮流專家風(fēng)資源和風(fēng)電預(yù)測專家TechnicalReviewCommittee

技術(shù)審查委員會(huì)Comprisedofgridoperators,governmentenergyofficials,renewableenergycompanies,renewableenergyexpertsand/orconsultantsHelpdesignstudyobjectivesandapproachandactaspeerreviewersConsiderquarterlymeetings,bothin-personandbytelephoneProvideeducationtoallcommitteeparticipants22ExeterAssociates,Inc.包含電網(wǎng)運(yùn)營商、能源部門的政府官員、可再生能源發(fā)電公司、可再生能源專家和顧問幫助設(shè)計(jì)研究目標(biāo)和方案，并幫助評議考慮召開季度會(huì)議，既可以當(dāng)面開會(huì)交流，也可以電話會(huì)議為成員提供培訓(xùn)Scenarios

情景23ExeterAssociates,Inc.Includemultiplescenariosofincreasingwindpenetration,byenergyStartwithbaseyear(i.e.,currentyearorthelastyearwithmostcompletesetofdata)Includeatleastonescenariowithveryhighwindpenetration(e.g.,30%or40%)Considerscenariosfocusedonparticularcircumstances,e.g.,geographicallydiversifiedwind,highoffshorewind,hightransmission,etc.風(fēng)電在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中（依據(jù)發(fā)電量）占比遞增的多種不同情景起始基年(比如有全套數(shù)據(jù)的當(dāng)年或上一年)至少包含風(fēng)電比例很高的一種情景(比如30%或40%)著重考慮特殊情況下的一些情景,如地理分布較為分散的風(fēng)電,有較多的海上風(fēng)電,較大的送電需求等Scenarios

情景Includemultiplescenariosofincreasingwindpenetration,byenergyStartwithbaseyear(i.e.,currentyearorthelastyearwithmostcompletesetofdata)Includeatleastonescenariowithveryhighwindpenetration(e.g.,30%or40%)Considerscenariosfocusedonparticularcircumstances,e.g.,geographicallydiversifiedwind,highoffshorewind,hightransmission,etc.ExeterAssociates,Inc.24風(fēng)電在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中（依據(jù)發(fā)電量）占比遞增的多種不同情景起始基年(比如有全套數(shù)據(jù)的當(dāng)年或上一年)至少包含風(fēng)電比率很高的一種情景(比如30%或40%)著重考慮特殊情況下的一些情景,如地理分布較為分散的風(fēng)電,有較多的海上風(fēng)電,較大的送電需求等Scenarios(2)

情景（2）25ExeterAssociates,Inc.Escalategeneration(includingwind)andloaddatabyannualconstantpercentagetogettofutureyear(e.g.,2%)Don’tprojecttoofaroutintothefuture,asitmaybedifficulttocontrolallthepotentialvariablesStudiestypicallyforecastout10yearsMayneedtoaddgenerationoverstudyprojectionyearstomaintainreliabilityU.S.studiestypicallyaddgasturbinesasproxy基于年度固定百分比（如2%）逐步升高的發(fā)電量(包括風(fēng)電)和負(fù)荷數(shù)據(jù)不要把預(yù)測的期限定的太遠(yuǎn),因?yàn)楹芏酀撛诘淖兞渴请y以控制的一般來說研究預(yù)測的期限是10年左右為保持可靠性，可能需要在預(yù)測研究的基礎(chǔ)上再增加發(fā)電量美國這邊的研究通常以天然氣發(fā)電量的增長來代表SensitivityStudies

敏感度研究26ExeterAssociates,Inc.MaywishtodoseveralsensitivitystudiesDifferentnaturalgasandcoalpricesDifferentfuelmixesHigherorlowerprojectedelectricitydemandMoredemandresponsePlug-inelectricvehiclesDifferentturnbackcapabilitiesforcoalunitsDifferinglevelsofhydroflexibilityVaryingaccuracylevelsofwindpowerforecast可能要做幾種敏感度研究不同的天然氣和煤炭價(jià)格不同的燃料組合高一點(diǎn)或低一點(diǎn)的電力需求預(yù)測更好的需求響應(yīng)插入式電動(dòng)車不同的燃煤機(jī)組爬坡控制能力不同水平的水電靈活性風(fēng)電預(yù)測的不同準(zhǔn)確度AssumptionstoMake

假設(shè)/預(yù)測27ExeterAssociates,Inc.ProjectedfuturefuelcostsfornaturalgasandcoalExpectedfutureloadgrowthProjectedfuturetransmissiongridProjectedgeneratingcapacityadditionsWhethertoinclude$/toncarbondioxideadderornot預(yù)測未來天然氣和煤炭的燃料價(jià)格預(yù)期未來的負(fù)荷增長預(yù)測未來的輸電網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測發(fā)電裝機(jī)的增加是否包含二氧化碳減排成本（美元/噸）DataNeeds

數(shù)據(jù)需求28ExeterAssociates,Inc.Multipleyears(usuallythree)oftime-synchronizedwindandloaddatatocaptureinter-annualvariabilityofloadandwindUseNumericalWeatherPredictionmodelstorecreatehistoricalweatherdata多年（一般三年）的同期風(fēng)電及負(fù)荷數(shù)據(jù)，用以推測風(fēng)電和負(fù)荷情況的年際變化使用數(shù)值模擬氣象預(yù)測模型重現(xiàn)歷史氣象數(shù)據(jù)ExamplesofWindData

風(fēng)電數(shù)據(jù)示例Windspeeddataextractedfrommultiple-yearmodelrunsthatareatwindturbinehubheightsandconvertedtowindpowerusingwindpowercurvesOutputistypically5-minuteor10-minutewinddataTonsofdataUseactualwindgenerationtoverifymodeledwinddataNeedtofactorinlanduserestrictionssuchasurbanareas,nationalparks,environmentallysensitiveareas,andotherareasunlikelytobedevelopedExeterAssociates,Inc.29從多年模型中取得輪轂高度風(fēng)速數(shù)據(jù)，并利用風(fēng)功率曲線換算為風(fēng)能一般來講，輸出的風(fēng)資源數(shù)據(jù)格式是5分鐘或10分鐘間隔海量數(shù)據(jù)使用實(shí)際風(fēng)電發(fā)電量來核實(shí)模擬的風(fēng)數(shù)據(jù)需要考慮土地征用限制如城市范圍、國家公園、環(huán)境敏感區(qū)、及其他相關(guān)因素，排除不能開發(fā)風(fēng)電的地區(qū)。DataNeeds(2)

數(shù)據(jù)需要（2）30ExeterAssociates,Inc.Sub-hourlyloadandgenerationdata(minute-by-minute,10-minute)foranalysisofinterestingperiods(highwind,highload,highwind/lowload,etc.)LoadforecastsformultipleyearsThisstepalwaystakesthelongest,andtheintegrationstudycannotproceedwithoutdata通過逐時(shí)負(fù)荷和發(fā)電數(shù)據(jù)（每分鐘間隔、10分鐘間隔）做重點(diǎn)時(shí)段分析（高比例風(fēng)電出力，高負(fù)荷，高風(fēng)電/低負(fù)荷，等）多年負(fù)荷預(yù)測這步工作用時(shí)最長，但并網(wǎng)研究缺了這些數(shù)據(jù)就沒法繼續(xù)WindForecasts

風(fēng)電預(yù)測31ExeterAssociates,Inc.TechniquesforsimulatingwindpowerforecastsnotwelldevelopedTwobasicmethodsImposerandomerrorontopofwindgenerationprofilesMatchupwithanotherwindforecast(coveringsame