中國(guó)三農(nóng)問題：長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)與戰(zhàn)略選擇

中國(guó)三農(nóng)問題：

長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)與戰(zhàn)略選擇程國(guó)強(qiáng)國(guó)務(wù)院發(fā)展研究中心市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究cheng@2005’

國(guó)發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)報(bào)告會(huì)2005.12.22上海報(bào)告提綱中國(guó)：走向2010年中國(guó)三農(nóng)問題：長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)與挑戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)略選擇：建設(shè)新農(nóng)村中國(guó)：走向2010-2020年中國(guó)正處在人均GDP從1000美元到3000美元的發(fā)展新階段。將進(jìn)入工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化和現(xiàn)代化加速發(fā)展的重要時(shí)期。既是中國(guó)發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略機(jī)遇期，也是各類矛盾凸現(xiàn)的挑戰(zhàn)期。中年國(guó)來(lái)人來(lái)口包增角長(zhǎng)工率海：2獎(jiǎng)0塌0己6散-載2敘0箏2隔0.S換o快u脂r孕c爐e顆:夾C歪h調(diào)e轎n枯g舌,桌2稀0唱0詞5中豆國(guó)詳人?？诶鼍撮L(zhǎng)飾：2采0勸0荷6情-捆2爽0樸2餅0S須o矩u既r演c挑e景:誰(shuí)C帖h易e宜n惡g帳,霜2窄0偷0綱5中哲國(guó)戶經(jīng)壯濟(jì)寨增淋長(zhǎng)紛：貧1辱9愛9熱0電－正2減0包0牌4S芹o圍u碎r延c勸e切:鐘N劉S命B北,皆2赤0場(chǎng)0殃4中想國(guó)原經(jīng)研濟(jì)稱增稅長(zhǎng)軋：爪2霞0囑0禮6捕-誼2婦0夕2祥0未幕來(lái)令1吉5品年砌中篇國(guó)灰經(jīng)百濟(jì)全增桃長(zhǎng)活保貿(mào)持低在猴7決%欣以扔上.S毫o灣u導(dǎo)r漂c扎e畜:議C懇h羨e陷n少g角,避2欣0吃0房誠(chéng)5中鼓國(guó)傾的規(guī)經(jīng)千濟(jì)協(xié)總茫量曾,汽2蜻0堪0孩6陡－陳2泄0糾2挪02貞0數(shù)2按0長(zhǎng)中耐國(guó)箏的楊G右D商P企將窄是抵2虧0巨0嘩4講年州的遼3潤(rùn)倍S日o蘭u聚r格c懸e泛:自C稅h慚e冶n堵g熊,橡2糊0隨0括5G矛D哪P鏟的牛國(guó)粒際菊比宅較：嫌2幫0敞0父2S親o灣u拴r少c小e拐:迷C男h提e創(chuàng)n搜g撇,跡2圍0余0撫5中凍國(guó)濱G糾D鄰P喊在照世迅界椒的累比選重槳(板%座)炭,秒2將0撥0懸6榮-自2何0稻2魯0S譽(yù)o校u甲r陰c表e且:電C沾h執(zhí)e辟n賤g鹿,物2株0始0紐奉5中柔國(guó)魔經(jīng)戚濟(jì)鳳發(fā)烘展親框汪架瓣：讀五瓣年讓發(fā)殼展刃計(jì)鳳劃九刮五幸計(jì)旨劃飛：柜1艦9語(yǔ)9贊6據(jù)－訪2啊0切0舟0十脫四送屆宗五燭中悉全蹄會(huì)增推長(zhǎng)滲方估式錯(cuò)的軌根話本獨(dú)轉(zhuǎn)儲(chǔ)變訊：躲從伯粗邀放登型卷增撒長(zhǎng)型轉(zhuǎn)孟向歇集食約懼型酬增遵長(zhǎng)計(jì)條劃船經(jīng)還濟(jì)沫向惹市香場(chǎng)移經(jīng)搶濟(jì)小轉(zhuǎn)明變十謙五牛計(jì)虎劃挪：系2門0懷0薪1說(shuō)－盞2轟0裹0墊5十興五飄屆小五饅中棟全圖會(huì)結(jié)膽構(gòu)陰調(diào)鴨整十蛇一煩五卻規(guī)叉劃鵝：竟2件0辨0挎6寺－削2金0訴1伸0十探六無(wú)屆梢五寒中駱全約會(huì)“賴發(fā)旨展慣是矮硬敘道遼理受”袍。住1陷9岸7衡9滅－狀2職0歡0惑4鈴年還，種G茅D宜P朽年蛋增具長(zhǎng)堤率左保沈持音在滴9曾.闖4凱%中。十撥一決五延規(guī)糾劃桌：挺2晶0水0堡6躁－教2碧0成1卻0毛路秋線隔圖科險(xiǎn)學(xué)痕發(fā)盛展塊觀堅(jiān)向持濾以雕人相為稿本西，軌全嫁面妖協(xié)攜調(diào)棗、扁可死持濟(jì)續(xù)蝴發(fā)酬展發(fā)沖展污是針硬陰道宣理員，蛾但呢發(fā)驗(yàn)展箱必鍛須故是愉科幟學(xué)探的毒發(fā)借展茶，導(dǎo)要柳把杏整銹個(gè)富社絞會(huì)趕經(jīng)鍬濟(jì)圾發(fā)香展尋納卷入牲科既學(xué)障發(fā)都展誕軌野道十堆六愿屆柄三棒中陸全答會(huì)咱：愚2診0屠0責(zé)3十夸六芳屆潛五拍中盛全扮會(huì)煉：寬戰(zhàn)提略負(fù)性焰目禽標(biāo)現(xiàn)漲實(shí)籌的塞沖姑突老：輪長(zhǎng)兼期抬與封短稱期譯利差益堂、鬧整跡體散和援局賊部活利快益體佳制慕和及機(jī)令制惰保寧障建器設(shè)警社臟會(huì)眼主尖義仆新沈農(nóng)村村生餃產(chǎn)刺發(fā)睬展泉、送生亦活立寬望裕因、霉鄉(xiāng)油風(fēng)籠文鴿明睬、安村螺容惕整克潔暗、銜管獻(xiàn)理辮民象主自肺主沃創(chuàng)翼新經(jīng)撇濟(jì)中增場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)姜的銷源均泉性：洋6材0誘％租外亡貿(mào)洲。2定0獨(dú)0脊5晉年誼外譯貿(mào)卻1劇4夏0欣0商0俊美侍元煮，迎有棟多災(zāi)少堅(jiān)是附自累己湯的掠知抽識(shí)島產(chǎn)傅權(quán)滋？建販立綿資港源倘節(jié)譯約植型墳社滔會(huì)呀和加環(huán)孟境換友揪好怠型盾社艦會(huì)循變環(huán)探經(jīng)篇濟(jì)和文諧平社按會(huì)民菊主明法卷治擴(kuò)、怎公魂平腰正訊義研、專誠(chéng)虹信窩友漠愛長(zhǎng)、界充計(jì)滿譽(yù)活挎力漸、犧安殿定方有聞序搭、野人納與塌自絨然俘和敬諧譽(yù)相鉤處解幼決市人蔑民稿群疲眾訪最趴關(guān)續(xù)心鑰的書切核實(shí)竹利鏟益夢(mèng)問慚題中奴國(guó)雄三理農(nóng)孫問拴題寨：肅長(zhǎng)狡期刪趨扎勢(shì)煉與淺挑識(shí)戰(zhàn)長(zhǎng)遇期乒趨叉勢(shì)面福臨咐的錯(cuò)矛巖盾宋和墳挑的戰(zhàn)中叼國(guó)斬農(nóng)惰村哭：獵邁吹向況2種0超1衛(wèi)0庭年宏饞觀巷環(huán)支境誤：體農(nóng)京業(yè)歪與吉國(guó)摟民去經(jīng)逮濟(jì)工縫業(yè)掃化牌中歉期鄰階醫(yī)段城建市姿化券進(jìn)妙程農(nóng)凳業(yè)儀發(fā)薦展歇的孩多壤功影能協(xié)化糧家食精安泡全壩與象農(nóng)堤產(chǎn)福品勻消朵費(fèi)妥需越求農(nóng)綿民灰增揀收隆與臘就綿業(yè)資眼源皮與暮環(huán)打境提保寨護(hù)國(guó)早際蔽化摸挑胖戰(zhàn)嫩：控世鏟界彎貿(mào)芳易喜體酷系察中背的桐中粘國(guó)積農(nóng)瞎業(yè)中妹國(guó)級(jí)經(jīng)屋濟(jì)突的危結(jié)棄構(gòu)盾變毀化王：容農(nóng)絲式業(yè)質(zhì)的何貢褲獻(xiàn)S威o纖u彼r跪c蕩e專:游N剩S桐B劣,穗2項(xiàng)0挑0附4農(nóng)絡(luò)業(yè)喇與涼中角國(guó)贈(zèng)經(jīng)梳濟(jì)盛增煌長(zhǎng)S零o旬u陳r來(lái)c沈e揀:雙N沒S悅B赤,喇2溪0臨0錘4部險(xiǎn)分菜地途區(qū)喪人岡均掘G所D效P租：斜2娛0哥0各4農(nóng)狂業(yè)委增蕉加蔑值農(nóng)在置G垂D座P駝中推的匯比投重慌已盒經(jīng)管降解到衛(wèi)8斥.浸4炭%與.S氏o藍(lán)u療r級(jí)c憶e叔:疲N截S胸B掌,飾2橡0鏈0犬5農(nóng)暮業(yè)銷在蘿G橋D坐P閉與沙就緩業(yè)廉份攪額孟的普國(guó)州際叫比秋較S坑o耳u論r桶c岔e米:遣C成h誤e溝n割g梢,刑2畜0諒0逝5城壞市榮化效進(jìn)騎程國(guó)顫際匙經(jīng)絹驗(yàn)城侮市釘化臟初帳期頁(yè)階碰段蜻：使城社市持人?？谇?銷0尋%劉以煌下球；加緒快剩發(fā)階展盆階蠢段賣：是城督市壞人豆口時(shí)比粱例土3拴0妻－圓7遭0鋪%蛇，酸尤頭其指是尖5來(lái)0俊%餅以婦后偷。成懼熟顧階冶段禮：騰7滑0弦%腰。中院國(guó)城束市邊化叔水術(shù)平箭：封2出0班0豪4括年露為斗4俘1老.圓8爹%俗；過(guò)菜去聰每彼年譯提則高轟1繪.乎4功個(gè)趟百腳分嘆點(diǎn)2面0乓1球0銜年看：夫4捷8扶%暫；2批0鳥2披0擾年升：斗5勸5鼻%餡。膛農(nóng)糊業(yè)恩勞雅動(dòng)氏力嶺1狠/裁3中乒國(guó)猛的魔特渾殊樓性湖：沒城要鎮(zhèn)輕化吩滯蛇后集于遞工宴業(yè)休化農(nóng)徐業(yè)民發(fā)饅展避的春多妙功歡能轟化糧診食石安裝全葡與帥農(nóng)座產(chǎn)波品稠消獄費(fèi)岸需擺求滿租足攤不凱斷曠增搜加年的燈人其口長(zhǎng)的討食紀(jì)物固需課求雅；滿葵足喊收歷入嶼增絲式長(zhǎng)兄對(duì)申食金物馳多優(yōu)樣距化末的谷要兼求念：品翻種貫結(jié)做構(gòu)筒：希對(duì)釀畜賄產(chǎn)允品叫的級(jí)需乏求壩大蘇幅累度株增今加盜。產(chǎn)端品透要濁求沒：添對(duì)扶農(nóng)晝產(chǎn)祥品叔質(zhì)框量乏安榆全透的找要愧求梢越蠶來(lái)具越脾高厘。產(chǎn)菠品紋形埋態(tài)漂：扔對(duì)臘加烘工濤產(chǎn)陜品剩的氣需把求樣會(huì)嬸越殃來(lái)縮慧越圣大她。農(nóng)釀民降增皆收樂與稍就平業(yè)主奪產(chǎn)屯區(qū)刻農(nóng)留民狠收搭入緩盈解翅就輸業(yè)擦壓翻力資翻源婦與嶺環(huán)使境外保陸護(hù)農(nóng)議業(yè)載資見源儀環(huán)漢境胖壓塵力扔越果來(lái)缸越加大農(nóng)益村眠矛原盾插：摘過(guò)韻去笨：蝦要架糧別、正要愈錢萌、扭要妖命添；筑現(xiàn)譯在幕：婦征隊(duì)地山、察環(huán)域?，F(xiàn)柿代競(jìng)農(nóng)唐業(yè)國(guó)凱際殿化指挑鍵戰(zhàn)脫：滋世糕界犯貿(mào)饑易踏體煌系紛中殼的喜中嘴國(guó)釘農(nóng)扒業(yè)2沃0甜0攝1慘年孕底繞中莖國(guó)詳加簽入旗W遞T誕O證，燒中渣國(guó)遙農(nóng)撥業(yè)傍對(duì)相外做開盟放區(qū)程西度閑大腫幅而提抖高佳，汗中稼國(guó)名農(nóng)由業(yè)桃與嘩世接界低農(nóng)口業(yè)汪的餐關(guān)艱聯(lián)焰程奏度蠅發(fā)蔽生似重訴大濁變牙化禮。在測(cè)世你界赴貿(mào)成易據(jù)體跟系贏中伍，委中胡國(guó)況作金為帆農(nóng)戚產(chǎn)收品拼生捉產(chǎn)紅大義國(guó)騎和洋消煎費(fèi)茶大揚(yáng)國(guó)摸，歉既已可吳能頭受末到閥國(guó)翁際錫市場(chǎng)場(chǎng)猛的惹不什利認(rèn)沖驗(yàn)擊譜，書同狂時(shí)雞也燃對(duì)涼國(guó)積際賽市旬場(chǎng)丈有姻著荷巨京大薦影踏響澆。中鄉(xiāng)豐國(guó)狡糧劍食禽自喝給削率哲每織下鑒降茶1授個(gè)渠百致分糟點(diǎn)脅，氏就礎(chǔ)會(huì)該影怎響朽世且界離糧浩食卷貿(mào)建易傭量遺2課個(gè)披百文分爹點(diǎn)舅。中核國(guó)松是定世朵界毅上樣農(nóng)唇產(chǎn)納品瘋市歉場(chǎng)蘭最瞧開潑放跌的必國(guó)緊家瞇之客一主厲要臥國(guó)合家阻農(nóng)嬌產(chǎn)作品必約籍束塊關(guān)吉稅亂率觀（算%困）世泡界敵主賊要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