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輸E潑s酷t(yī)誠(chéng)i淘m辰a擊t絨e貝s宇家o勉f竟設(shè)t塞h倆e長(zhǎng)讀O功p旦e斑r碰a君t蕩i儉o房n拍a踢l桑駛R曉e跌l帥i偷a窄b恰i悲l魂i墨t跑y累挺o敢f旗較F登i核r亭e懇渾P敬r井o逃t話e燕c澆t橫i患o(jì)含n瞇水S握y土s紫t掃e亂m典s媽F背o遷r捷壘t棒h喝e欄沿p驚a歪s叉t其臭t牽h晴r美e哭e催毅y困e僑a番r遇s扯,擋t投h駱e農(nóng)京N雷a錦t叉i裹o董n酒a幅l夜以I職n獻(xiàn)s病t較i晶t遣u蠅t讓e乓頸o授f擊扯S逆t搶a嗽n辨d扛a蝴r業(yè)d倘s覽容a外n下d誘或T嫩e珍c落h卻n蝦o辱l牌o寶g州y爺果(譜N禍I宋S雙T勒)把完h廢a宗s抖箱b物e壘e遣n序藏w跟o頭r分k鋒i蔬n望g皺址t企o隙擦d器e厚v胸e懼l產(chǎn)o快p恒嚷a殲玉n倆e損w唱辟e霉n汪c融r乒y賊p爹t撫i蕩o方n拼后s圖t樹(shù)a醬n慢d蹲a具r綁d身竭t陣o些虛k盡e刑e嘴p汗禾g廊o氣v勢(shì)e肝r怖n妥m裙e繼n愛(ài)t捕脫i民n酸f朵o筋r苗m撕a層t皂i斜o叨n醒立s御e謠c執(zhí)u名r遇e艘.鴨T彩h茅e望過(guò)o艙r雷g董a出n襪i鴿z借a廳t遵i柄o爬n訓(xùn)尺i侍s嗎袍i量n屢驅(qū)t賺h扮e忠嫁f閃i金n歸a鐮l要眼s頓t木a禮g孝e贊s竊德o籍f粒嚇a捉n烘陳o直p個(gè)e蠟n報(bào)戲p會(huì)r兵o談c異e慘s赴s踩寫(xiě)o合f渣聯(lián)s攝e稍l診e徹c若t遲i牽n張g直何o惱n沾e析鞭o柴r悼鑼m抱o逆r粗e蛾李a愈l快g彩o貝r數(shù)i牲t瀉h孩m豆s田,佳o林r減獸d擁a炮t脆a蒙-懼s喂c柿r白a查m繳b懸l他i吳n魂g脈雨f吧o纖r尼m桃u院l候a最s墨,價(jià)f攻o汁r輝肯t躁h兔e仇只n割e暈w兔被A敬d慧v贏a傍n挺c墻e親d顫引E距n急c奔r樣y目p繩t依i傲o惡n鍬需S初t效a梅n暫d畝a派r物d很盛(歲A蔬E敗S塌)膜茂a熟n鈔d鄭頁(yè)p語(yǔ)l籠a我n喂s截廉t本o籌購(gòu)m意a清k楊e裂摩a園d致e司c嘉i趴s拋i壺o藥n麗聽(tīng)b幕y俱淚l怪a是t墊e燙式s風(fēng)u侍m腥m向e騰r懼錢(qián)o余r順遼e脾a剪r蔬l勺y載援f妥a鬧l散l息.賊T繭h劍e奏錫s同t眉a庭n傷d匪a嚼r宅d脊萍i里s咐率s怨l嚼a舅t洽e號(hào)d展只t腥o幼底g波o夾撈i懶n點(diǎn)t漿o評(píng)稀e啟f餡f胸e驗(yàn)c躲t座貞n(yōu)輪e兆x導(dǎo)t犁幕y妻e建a躍r臥.吧糾R詳i露c蚊h喬a汗r川d齡查W蜓.新魚(yú)B拋u嘴k申o累w朗s漆k階i選,懇P態(tài).瓶E防.燥谷S張e搏n每i呈o超r每負(fù)E尚n涼g灑i稠n掛e緒e減r藏?cái)[M宰S遇T或什B勒u熄i削l遭d啦i也n婦g壘共a在n今d候垮F慶i落r侮e玻婚R掏e芳s聲e防a肥r從c冶h團(tuán)程L主a糖b辟o古r宇a惹t所o駁r扇y教像G關(guān)a胖i草t哲h凱e垮r掌s滔b隸u落r熄g尖,傳M賽D厭籌2州0道8穿9合9歷-女8捕6霧4朽2可重U售S椅A相捕E牙d距w貸a強(qiáng)r凱d窩遙K剃.邊口B膽u季d李n眼i央c櫻k刻,沉P凍.系E慧.猜,錫a殼n陵d把鉆壤娘傻光串?dāng)D冷畢濕辦襯娃啄憶籮錦岡平彩C浴h闖r務(wù)i怠s鳳t弟o四p伙h緞e朵r宣勇F伴.歌墾S慧c相h躁e化m框e句1像辯V耳i報(bào)c栽e短嚷P族r昏e與s冊(cè)i資d聞e致n囑t服就務(wù)波民墾稿摸浸攏鑄臣糖世豆同封綁貨副負(fù)欲就蒙搭討早摟列??ń褙炏П谻飛h佛e艱m葡i澡c年a丟l魂文E駕n逝g匯i錦n伙e師e愧r敏消H妨u澤g姨h襪e萬(wàn)s繳棉A躍s歉s贈(zèng)o遞c改i寄a賢t款e殖s報(bào),銹I故n土c師壺售廣鍵棄宏安軟父激詢(xún)騰翠劍睡爛他豆拍壁蘋(píng)強(qiáng)師事遭填H立u抄g板h露e緒s果顫A斃s稅s灶o兄c隆i旱a附t超e升s植,母I鞭n拋c賊.藥缺B制a演l柴t放i斬m葉o襲r耀e召,雹M焦D評(píng)侵2俱1壟2強(qiáng)2煮7似-貿(mào)1厘6朱5妙2策U跌S恐A臺(tái)鑄瘡誰(shuí)娃頂返充竊粗喘肚尤庭濾卸免驅(qū)柳赤言雞B淺a資l訊t口i揭m辱o字r網(wǎng)e讓?zhuān)碰D姐碰2辯守1谷2肅2擇7岡-捎1鵝6扎5螺2題U葡S端A半絲I才N羞T衫R爽O軍D晃U托C城T茫I按O勢(shì)N乞揮B舅a片c吉k藥g承r私o腎u朋n支dFireprotectionstrategiesaredesignedandinstalledtoperformspecificfunctions.Forexample,afiresprinklersystemisexpectedtocontrolorextinguishfires:Toaccomplishthis,thesystemsprinklersmustopen,andtherequiredamountofwatertoachievecontrolorextinguishmentmustbedeliveredtothefirelocation.Afiredetectionsystemisintendedtoprovidesufficientearlywarningofafiretopermitoccupantnotificationandescape,fireservicenotification,andinsomecasesactivationofotherfireprotectionfeatures(e.g.,specialextinguishingsystems,smokemanagementsystems).Bothsystemactivation(detection)andnotification(alarm)mustoccurtoachieveearlywarning.Constructioncompartmentationisgenerallydesignedtolimittheextentoffirespreadaswellastomaintainthebuilding’sstructuralintegrityaswellastenabilityalongescaperoutesforsomespecifiedperiodoftime.Inordertoaccomplishthis,theconstructionfeaturesmustbefire“rated”稅召(隙b肅a擊s脊e之d納復(fù)o騰n坐響s歇t畝a慚n爆d注a弱r換d爭(zhēng)秒t旱e匯s緞t章s栽)娛鞠a葵n件d填賠t視h奧e盯擱i真n晉t尚e勺g禾r剖i容t守y大絹o怪f蛙謝t郊h桿e縫睛f貼e胃a火t毀u參r土e話s兼半m櫻a(bǔ)休i甲n狂t件a沉i業(yè)n逐e飼d離.獲按T宴h懂e評(píng)燥r床e率l穗i頂a失b毫i揀l瘦i卡t恭y議坦o釣f默坑i竭n查d悼i乘v踩i交d忘u宜a炒l托敲f再i退r遍e撞擊p格r例o崗t淺e塊c旺t寧i摸o絞n孕伸s姻t熱r菜a如t姜e差g守i屆e夜s領(lǐng)姻s課u吳c掀h篇棗a妹s賽初d駐e尋t膠e喬c蜓t庭i腹o俗n泥,易a搏u趴t行o艙m隸a顏t彼i漸c既睬s降u激p內(nèi)p耽r坑e肢s騰s當(dāng)i群o槳n圈,囑a其n猜d粘排c音o踢n珍s惜t廢r橫u朵c柱t蹄i撞o賽n絨脹c配o慮m為p肢a肝r藝t旨m跳e網(wǎng)n奶t辰a谷t沉i巷o框n牌痛i屈s禮關(guān)i智m架p籃o跑r旗t尖a草n遷t截館i茄n息p伐u駐t昆赤t煉o逼宿d溉e鍬t牲a舊i腐l束e授d覺(jué)券e坡n委g野i辛n艷e償e懲r撕i筒n檔g旬元a禁n犯a牧l克y從s眨e醋s普攝a碧s忙s活o眼c劇i慎a胸t皇e輩d斧必w后i紐t財(cái)h應(yīng)稼p爬e句r奶f位o進(jìn)r共m第a拖n柳c胖e痛扣b耽a鴿s值e敞d晚移d荷e濤s課i家g宴n道.史朱賽尿I種n嘩委t穩(wěn)h卸e智插c仙o漁n洲t盞e拜x愧t戲圖o茄f康鏟s浮a減f捷e蚊t烤y掀齊s提y揪s歲t池e勤m蛙s期,筍t怒h(huán)聞e魯r遍e絞溫a李r相e層享s果e放v婚e誕r封a剩l嫂基e矮l膜e勇m搬e已n努t拒s鉤抵o仍f蒼魚(yú)r畢e腹l摩i員a估b唐i沖l充i屈t致y株,懷i濃n傾c瞞l塑u祥d白i策n欣g恐魔b菌o獸t感h策o仿p干e專(zhuān)r瞧a線t集i深o溉n亡a紗l社限a狡n崗d興p孤e探r哲f懇o居r冤n交z勁z麗s星a窯n蓄c器e花先r好e你l能i博a解b敗i鉗l出i肌t我y銅.巡景O低p百e尖r屢a陪t腎i黑o肉n腿a丈l室檔r戶(hù)e圖l膠i外a蚊b厲i柿l僅i稍t鹽y參振p昌r籮o室v勞i割d輕e能s德別a豆陵m碰e捐a味s遮u紹r肚e德煮o菜f圍耳t奧h辟e溉槽p病r疑o預(yù)b柳a止b端i干l笛i她t鉗y逼平t臺(tái)h請(qǐng)a梯t廚唱a跨狂f皆i勿r連e寸奪p鬼r謙o劍t線e汪c怠t洗i撥o阻n影再s使y慣s箱t遼e撕m杯射w頓i熄l趕l援短o畝p老e灑r掀a賢t楊e貞嫌a提s陸姓i該n嚇t罩e板n枕d晶e冠d暢隔w舞h察e儲(chǔ)n坦飼n蘆e逃e缺d踢e川d忍.艷蜻糟P肢e越r艙f尚o舊r掏m剛a鑼n左c許e術(shù)味r事e繭l慧i恭a啊b縣i頁(yè)l梢i跌t請(qǐng)y愈傳i牛s組磁a窮確m竄e重a侮s欺u骨r苗e辛遭o閘f廈牲t宮h斜e峰蛇a畏d組e家q陜u濱a混c緩y喂刊o票f畏袋t月h穿e密感f冰e萍a峰t桑u濫r祝e惑士t跟o隙勢(shì)s榮u父c階c飽e島s命s漫f襲u悲l診l句y霜變p度e享r今f駱o鑰r違m機(jī)呈i塌t湖s勒竭i魔n蹈t益e色n殼d蝶e施d像h軌n垂c孫t記i伯o僻n僚慶u棚n鐵d戚e碑r頌啊s諸p誤e銜c個(gè)i鎮(zhèn)f育i鹿c磚艇f盯i雞r海e還紗e對(duì)x罰p育o爆s僵u稱(chēng)r嚷e閉譜c提o捎n按d缺i概t瞇i娘o龍n嚷s逗.辰識(shí)綿T宵h射e震罰f侵o灰r屋m夾e蛾r焰潑i洲s仇拜a間擱m概e赤a窩s黎u駁r受e狼境o簽f否曬c佳o彼m汗p賤o濤n強(qiáng)e伍n器t堆提o就r尊愉s劣y別s肉t紅e鳴m重蘭o阿p兇e故r并a龍b傻i師l弊i席t妨y得紐w直h贈(zèng)i萍l兔e車(chē)內(nèi)t援h牙e吐掌l取a芹t倉(cāng)t完e豬r蘭杠i馬s漫漿a陰鹽m都e末a插s攻u音r屆e跪際o堤f廣爆t跨h考e栽圍a咳d朵e師q爆u萍a陷c蛾y尼把o育f斃紙t刃h塊e沫擔(dān)s做y宇s南t客e漫m盟羽d慶e超s盒i儲(chǔ)g劇n挎.茶Thescopeofthisstudywaslimitedtoevaluationofoperationalreliabilitydueprimarilytotheformofthereporteddataintheliterature.Inadditiontothisdistinctionbetweenoperationalandperformancereliability,thescopefocusedonunconditionalestimatesofreliabilityandfailureestimatesintermsoffail-dangerousoutcomes.Adiscussionofthesetermsisprovidedlaterinthepaper.ScopeThispaperprovidesareviewofreportedoperationalreliabilityandperformanceestimatesfor(1)firedetection,(2)automaticsuppression,andtoalimitedextent(3)constructioncompartmentation.Ingeneral,thereportedestimatesforfiredetectionarelargelyforsmokedetectiodfirealarmsystems;automaticsprinklerscomprisemostofthedataforautomaticsuppression,andcompartmentationincludescompartmentfireresistanceandenclosureintegrity.Itshouldbenotedthatinsomecasestheliteraturedidnotdelineatebeyondthegeneralcategoriesof“firedetection”or“automaticsuppression,”requiringassumptionsregardingthespecifictypeoffireprotectionsystem.Severalstudiesreportedestimatesofreliabilityforbothfiredetectionandautomaticsprinklersystemstrategies.However,verylittleinformationwasfounddetailingreliabilityestimatesforpassivefireprotectionstrategiessuchascompartmentation.Alimitedstatisticalbasedanalysiswasperformedtoprovidegeneralizedinformationontherangesofsuchestimatesandrelateduncertainties.Thislattereffortwaslimitedtoevaluationofreporteddataondetectionandsuppression.Insufficientdatawereidentifiedoncompartmentationreliabilitytobeincluded.Thispaperaddresseselementsofreliabilityastheyrelatetofiresafetysystems.Theliteraturesearchthatwasperformedforthisanalysisisreviewedandimportantfindingsanddatasummarized.Thedatafoundintheliteraturethatwereapplicabletosprinklerandsmokedetectionsystemsreliabilitywereanalyzed,withdescriptiveestimatesofthemeanvaluesand95percentconfidenceintervalsfortheoperationalreliabilityoftheseinsitusystemsreported.ELEMENTSOFRELIABILITYANALYSISThereisconsiderablevariationinreliabilitydataandassociatedanalysesreportedintheliterature.Basically,reliabilityisanestimateoftheprobabilitythatasystemorcomponentwilloperateasdesignedoversometimeperiod.Duringtheusefulorexpectedlifeofacomponent,thistimeperiodis“reset”eachtimeacomponentistestedandfoundtobeinworkingorder.Therefore,themoreoftensystemsandcomponentsaretestedandmaintained,themorereliabletheyare.Thisformofreliabilityisreferredtoasunconditional.Unconditionalreliabilityisanestimateoftheprobabilitythatasystemwilloperate“ondemand.”Aconditionalreliabilityisanestimatethattwoeventsofconcern,i.e.,afireandsuccessfuloperationofafiresafetysystemoccuratthesametime.Reliabilityestimatesthatdonotconsiderafireeventprobabilityareunconditionalestimates.Twootherimportantconceptsappliedtooperationalreliabilityarefuiled-safeandfailed-dangerous.whenafiresafetysystemfailssafe,itoperateswhennofireeventhasoccurred.Acommonexampleisthefalsealarmingofasmokedetector.Afiresafetysystemfailsdangerouswhenitdoesnotfunctionduringafireevent.Inthisstudy,thefailed-dangerouseventdefinestheOperationalprobabilityoffailure(1-reliabilityestimate).Asprinklersystemnotoperatingduringafireeventoranoperatingsystemthatdoesnotcontrolorextinguishafireareexamplesofthistypeoffailure.Theoverallreliabilityofasystemdependsonthereliabilityofindividualcomponentsandtheircorrespondingfailurerates,theinterdependenciesoftheindividualcomponentsthatcomposethesystem,andthemaintenanceandtestingofcomponentsandsystemsonceinstalledtoveri@operability.Allofthesefactorsareofconcerninestimatingoperationazreliability.Firesafetysystemperformanceisalsoofconcernwhendealingwiththeoverallconceptofreliability.Systemperformanceisdefinedastheabilityofaparticularsystemtoaccomplishthetaskforwhichitwasdesignedandinstalled.Forexample,theperformanceofafireratedseparationisbasedontheconstructioncomponent’sabilitytoremainintactandprovidefireseparationduringafire.Thedegreetowhichthesecomponentspreventfirespreadacrosstheirintendedboundariesdefinessystemperformance.Performancereliabilityestimatesrequiredataonhowwellsystemsaccomplishtheirdesigntaskunderactualfireeventsorfullscaletests.Informationonperformancereliabilitycouldnotbediscerneddirectlyfrommanyofthedatasourcesreviewedaspartofthiseffortduetotheformofthepresenteddata,andtherefore,itisnotaddressedasaseparateeffect.Thecauseoffailureforanytypeofsystemistypicallyclassifiedintoseveralgeneralcategories:installationerrors,designmistakes,manufacturing/equipmentdefects,lackofmaintenance,exceedingdesignlimits,andenvironmentalfactors.Thereareseveralapproachesthatcanbeutilizedtominimizetheprobabilityoffailure.Suchmethodsinclude(1)designredundancy,(2)activemonitoringforfaults,(3)providingthesimplestsystem(i.e.,theleastnumberofcomponents)toaddressthehazard,and(4)awelldesignedinspection,testing,andmaintenanceprogram.Thesereliabilityengineeringconceptsareimportantwhenevaluatingreliabilityestimatesreportedintheliterature.Dependingonthedatausedinagivenanalysis,thereliabilityestimatemayrelatetooneormoreoftheconceptspresentedabove.Theliteraturereviewconductedunderthescopeofthiseffortaddressestheseconceptswhereappropriate.MostoftheinformationthatwasobtainedfromtheliteratureinsupportofthispaperwerereportedintermsofunconditionaloperationaZreliability,i.e.,intermsoftheprobabilitythatafireprotectionstrategywillnotfaiZdangerous.LITERATUREREVIEWAliteraturesearchwasconductedtogatherreliabilitydataofalltypesforfiresafetysystemsrelevanttotheprotectionstrategiesconsidered:automaticsuppression,automaticdetection,andcompartmentation.Theobjectiveoftheliteraturesearchwastoobtainsystem-specificreliabilityestimatesfortheperformanceofeachtypeoffiresafetysystemasafunctionofgenericoccupancytype(e.g.,residential,commercial,andinstitutional).Sourcesofinformationincludednationalfireincidentdatabasereports,USDepartmentofDefensesafetyrecords,industryandoccupancyspecificstudies,insuranceindustryhistoricalrecordsandinspectionreportsdocumentedintheopenliterature,andexperimentaldataReportsonexperimentalworkandfiretestingresultswereutilizedonlywhenfiredetection,automaticsuppression,orcompartmentationstrategieswereexplicitlyevaluated.Testsofsystemsusedforqualification,approval,orlistingwerealsoreviewedforinformationonfailuremodes.PublisheddatafromtheUnitedKingdom,Japan,Australia,andNewZealandwereincluded.GeneralStudiesSeveralbroadbasedstudieswereidentifiedthatreportedreliabilityestimatesforfiredetectionandfiresuppressionsystemsaswellasconstructioncompartmentation.Theseincluded(1)theWarringtonFireResearchstudy[1996]intheUnitedKingdom,(2)theAustralianFireEngineeringGuidelines[FireCodeReformCenter,19961,(3)acompilationoffirestatisticsforTokyo,Japan[TokyoFireDepartment,19971,and(4)resultsfromastudyofinsituperformanceoffireprotectionsystemsinJapan[Watanabe,19791.TheWarringtonFireResearchstudyaddressedthereliabilityoffiresafetysystemsandtheinteractionoftheircomponents.ADelphimethodologywasusedtodevelopdiscreteestimatesofthereliabilityofdetectionandalarmsystems,firesuppressionsystems,automaticsmokecontrolsystems,andpassivefireprotection(e.g.,compartmentation).TheAustralianFireEngineeringGuidelinesweredevelopedastheengineeringcodeofpracticesupportingthenewperformance-basedBuildingCodeofAustralia.Followingthemethodsinthisguide,buildingfiresafetyperformanceisevaluatedforsmouldering,flamingnon-flashover,andflamingflashoverfires.Theperformance(ie,probabilityofdetecting,extinguishingorcontrollingafireevent)offiresafetysystemsispredicted,accountingexplicitlyfortheoperationalreliabilityoftheparticularsystem.ReliabilityestimatesfromanexpertpanelratherthanfromactualdataareprovidedintheGuidelineforthispurpose.Finally,operationalreliabilitydatawerereportedintwoseparatestudiesinJapan.OnestudyinvolvedevaluationoffireincidentreportsfromthecityofTokyoduringtheperiodfrom1990to1997[TokyoFireDepartment19971.TheotherstudyinvolvedreviewoffireincidentreportsthroughoutJapanduringanearliertimeperiodendingin1978[Watanabe19791.Table1providesasummaryofthereliabilityestimatesprovidedinthesestudies.Significantdifferencesexistintheindividualreliabilityestimatesdependingontheparametersusedtodeveloptheseestimates.Dependingontherequiredaccuracyinpredictingfutureoperationalperformanceoffireprotectionsystems,dependenceontherangeofestimatesfromthesestudiescouldsignificantlyaltertheresults.Inaddition,theuncertaintyassociatedwithasingleestimateofreliabilityortheexistenceofpotentiallyimportantbiasesinthemethodsusedtoderivetheseestimatesmaylimittheirdirectusefulnessinaddressingeitheroperationalorperformancereliabilityoffireprotectionsystems.NA=NotAddressedTable1.PublishedEstimatesforFireProtectionSystemsOperationalReliability(ProbabilityofSuccess(YO))ReviewofAvailableReliabilityDataDuetothelimitedapplicabilityofthereliabilityestimatespublishedinthegeneralliterature,theliteraturereviewwasextendedinaneffortto(1)developanimprovedunderstandingoftheelementsofeachofthethreestrategiesunderconsiderationthatinfluencereliability,and(2)identifyandevaluatequantitativedataregardingindividualsystemoperabilityandfailurerates.AutomaticSuppressionSystems(i.e.,sprinklersystems)Table2providesasummaryofreportedoperationalreliabilityestimatesfromseveralstudiesthatevaluatedactualfireincidentsinwhichautomaticsprinklerswerepresent.Asagroup,thesestudiesvarysignificantlyintermsofthereportingtimeperiods,thetypesofoccupancies,andthelevelofdetailregardingthetypesoffiresandthesprinklersystemdesign.TheestimatespresentedinTable2generallyindicaterelativelyhighoperationalreliabilityforautomaticsprinklersystems.Whilesomeofthereferencesincludefire“control”or“extinguishment”aspartofthereliabilityassessment,thereporteddatawerenotconsistent.Therefore,operationalreliabilitywasassumedtobelimitedtosprinkleroperation.Theestimatesalsoindicatearangeofvalues,suggestingthatitwouldbeinapprotasourcesandgeneraluncertaintyassociatedwithcombiningdatafromdifferentdatabases.Automaticfireextinguishingsystem(sprinklersystem)Table2summarizessomestudiesestimatethattheevaluationoftheoperationalreliabilityofautomaticsprinklersystem,firefightingactualfireincidents.Asagroup,thesestudiesreportverydifferentintimeperiod,typeofhousingandlevelofdetailrelatedtothetypeoffireandsprinklersystemdesign.Table2showsthespraysystemoperationalreliabilityestimatesaregenerallyrelativelyhigh,whilesomestudiesthefailureofthefirecontrolorfire,aspartoftheassessmentofreliability,butthereport'sdataisnotconsistent.Therefore,theoperationalreliabilityassumethattheoperationislimitedtospraying.assessmentshouldalsoshowthevaluerange,suggestingnottousethedeviationofaspraysystemreliabilitywithoutattentiontodataandcombiningdatafromdifferentdatabasesuncertaintysources.Table2oftheoriginalbudgetbythereliabilityestimatesrangefrom81.13%to99.5%[Taylor]thelowvalueofmTaylor'sstudyandsomekookoverestimated(87.6%)reportthatthesesignificantdeviationthedatausedinthesestudies.Inbothstudies,thenumberoffiresisverysmall,andinthedatabasedoesnotdistinguishbetweenautomaticfireextinguishingsystemsandotherfire-fightingsystem.Thefinal99.5%ofthemaybeeandmarryatreportedhighestimatesreflectaspraysystemintheinspection,testingandmaintenanceofarigorousandwelldocumented.Thedataobtainedfromthespraysystem,anotherimportantlimitationisthatmostoftheAutomaticSprinklerSystemrecordssprinkleraccident.Inthesestudies,verylimitedaccidentdatawithreferencetotherapidresponseorasuitablewaterjettechnology.Assessthereliabilityoftheappropriatesprinklersystemshouldbeparticularlyconcernedaboutseveralfactors,including(1)allowscoveragewithin,(2)lowerwatersupplycapacity,(3)remotecontroloralarmsystemshavegreatpotentialinthefire.Basedonthis,thereareotherfactorsrelatedtothesetechnologies(suchasmaintenancelevel)candirectlyaffecttheoperationalreliabilityofthesetypesofAutomaticSprinklerSystem.Inaddition,youalsoneedtoresolvetheseproblems,thesystemdata,butbasedonlaterobservationsandgeneralhousingisgenerallylesslikelytomaintainnormal,somedesignedtoensuretheresidencewhatspraysystemreliabilitymaybereduced..FiredetectionoralarmsystemsTable3providesanoverviewofareportontheoperationalreliabilityforresidentialsystemsanalysistoassesstheaverageprobabilityand95%confidenceintervalsareestimatedbasedondataprovidedbyHALL[1955].Thescopeoftheaveragereliabilityestimatesrangingfrom68-88%.FiguresareconsistentwiththoseprovidedbythestandardswithTobyDelphy.Institutereliability.However,thegeneralscopeofthe95%confidenceinterval66-90%.Table3:Analysisofthereliabilityofsmokedetectors[HALL,1955]Thefiredistricttorelyonvarioustypesofequipmentsuchas:doors(includingfixedequipment),wall,floor/ceilingpenetrationholes,windows,fireshutter,smokematerialsandbuildings.Whenthefiredistrictisconsideredtobethefocusinthefireplan,intheliterature,thereislittledatathattheindividualcomponentsoftheoperatingroleinthefiredistrict.ThesingleismentionedforthebuildingassessmentandoperationalreliabilityWARRIGTONresearchandtheAustralianFireEngineeringIndex.Theseassessmentsarebasedentirelyonexpertjudgment.Thereforedoesnotprovidemorein-depthanalysis.AutomaticsprinklersystemsanalysisOnTable2,thesprinklersystemreliabilityanalysisistoanalyzeaccordingtothetypeofeachlive.ItshouldbenotedthatonlyonesourceMILNE,1959]onthereliabilityofpublicbuildingsandresidentialhousingestimates,andtheseearlydatadonotprovidethereliabilityofthedataofmodernresidentialsprinklers.ThedistributionhistogramofFigure1liststhereliabilityestimatesforeachhousingtype.Averageand95%confidenceintervallimitissuitableforgeneralresidential(inthestudydoesnotdistinguishbetweencommercialbuildings,thecategoryofresidentialbuildingsandpublicbuildings)andcommercialbuildings,andisapplicabletothebuilding(commercial,publicbuildings,residential)reliabilityassessment.TheseresultsareshowninTable4.Figure1:TheautomaticsprinklersystemreliabilityassessmentofavarietyofhousingtypesCommercialbuildingsandpublicbuildings,reliabilityassessment,theaverageofcontrolinotherresidentialtype95%confidenceinterval.Livableandpublicbuildingsinasinglepointestimate,anincreaseofsomeusefulthingsandoperationalreliability,andalsoincreasedthecapacityofthedatabase.18estimatedfourseparatecategories.However,thepointonresidentialandpublicbuildingsoftheestimatesshouldnotbeusedalonetodrawanyconclusions.Thereliabilityofcommercialbuildings,residentialandconstructionisestimatedtoprovidesomeusefulinformation.Basedontheanalysisofthesprinklersystemcanmakeuseofthedataisthereliabilityofoperationisestimatedatmorethan88%,ifyoudonotconsidercommercialbuildings,thereliabilityofthesprinklersystemcanreachmorethan92%.However,thejudgethisparticularsprinklersystemwiththosementionedintheassessmentsystemsimilarityisveryimportant.Thereliabilityofthecommercialbuildingsisintherange80-98%,94-98%inthegeneralconstruction.FiredetectionsystemanalysisThedataonestimatesofthereliabilityoffiredetectionsystemiscomprehensive.Thisdataspansadecade,andeveryyeartheReliabilityAssessmentReport(reflectedinTable3),itisdoneforthehousingofavarietyofdifferentuses.Wheretheanalysisisbasedontheuseofthehousedividedintoseveralbuildinglevel.Aftereachusehousingderiveddataandthencalculatethereliabilityofeachhousingestimates.Figure2
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