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ISSN2707-1723
31July2023
GIEWSUpdate
TheRepublicoftheUnionofMyanmar
Thecurrentcriticalfoodinsecuritysituationcoulddeterioratein
thesecondhalfof2023
Highlights
>Thecurrentfoodinsecuritysituationiscriticalduetoreducedagriculturalproductionin2022,intensifiedconflict,recordhighfoodpricesandthedevastatingeffectsofCycloneMocha.
>Theconflicttriggeredrecord-highciviliandisplacements,currentlyestimatedat1.83millionpeople,athree-foldincreasecomparedtothesameperiodin2022.
>Foodinsecuritycouldworsenifconstrainedaccesstofertilizerandintensifiedconflictpersist,andiftheforecastofbelow-averagemonsoonprecipitationisrealized,thusreducingcerealproductionin2023.
Acutefoodinsecurityisatcriticallevelsinvariouspartsofthecountry,mainlyduetotheshortfallsin2022cerealproduction,intensifiedconflictandrecordhighfoodprices.AccordingtotheHumanitarianResponsePlan(HRP)publishedlastJanuary,ithehighest
prevalenceandseverityofacutefoodinsecuritywasreportedinnorthwesternandsoutheasternareas,includingRakhine,Chin,KayahandKayinstatesaswellastheSagaingandMandalayregions(Map1).Sincemid-2022theconflictincreasedinintensity
Map1:Myanmar–Acutefoodinsecurityprevalenceandseveritybyregionandstate,2023
Source:OCHA.2023.MyanmarHumanitarianNeedsOverview2023.UNOfficefortheCoordinationofHumanitarianAffairs.15January2023.
https://reliefweb.
int/report/myanmar/myanmar-humanitarian-needs-overview-2023-january-2023#:~:text=A%20total%20of%2017.6%20million,those%20in%20need%20
are%20children
.
GIEWS
globalinformationandearlywarningsystemonfoodandagriculture
andspreadtovariouspartsofthecountry,causinglarge-scaledisplacement,disruptingtradeflowsandlimitingaccesstohumanitarianassistance.AccordingtotheUnitedNationsHighCommissionerforRefugees(UNHCR),asofJune2023,arecordhighof1.83millionpeopleareinternallydisplaced(IDPs),iiathree-foldincreasecomparedtothesameperiodin2022(Figure1)withmostofthembeingalmostentirelyreliantonhumanitarianaid.Inaddition,1.12millionpeoplesoughtshelterinneighbouringcountries,mostlyinBangladeshinCox’sBazarDistrictandontheislandofBhasanChar.On14May2023,CycloneMocha,aCategory5eventwithstrongwindsandheavyrains,madelandfallinnorthwesternpartsofthecountry,triggeringflashfloods,andaffectingthelivelihoodsofatleast3.4million
people.iii
ThemostseverelyaffectedareasweretheRakhine,ChinandKachinstatesaswellastheSagaingandMagwayregions,where60percentoftheIDPsarelocated.Foodsecurityconditionscoulddeterioratefurtherifconstrainedaccesstofertilizers,persistinglocalinsecurityandiftheforecastbelow-average2023monsoonprecipitationisrealizedresultinginlowercerealproductionin2023.Giventhecriticalfoodinsecurityconditions,animmediatescalingupofongoingfoodandlivelihoodhumanitarianassistancetothemostvulnerablehouseholdsisurgentlyneeded.Supportfortheongoing2023mainagriculturalseasonshouldbeprovidedtofarminghouseholdstoenhancetheirproductivecapacity.
Below-average2022cerealoutputanduncertainprospectsfor2023crops
Harvestingofthe2022secondaryseasoncropsfinalizedinlateJuneandthe2022aggregatecerealproductionisestimatedat24.7milliontonnes,about8percentbelowthefive-yearaverage.Thispoorperformanceismainlyduetolowyieldscausedbyreducedavailabilityandhighpricesofinputs,particularlyagrochemicals.LocalizeddamagestostandingcropswerereportedinnorthwesternpartsofthecountryduetothepassageofCycloneMocha.AccordingtoanearlyFAOpreliminaryanalysis,basedonremotesensingdata,about330000hectaresofcropswereaffected,mostlyinRakhineStateandSagaing
Region.iv
Theseincludeready-to-beharvestedsecondaryricecrops,greenandblackgram,andsesamecrops,plantedatthe
beginningofMay.
Intheseareas,earlyassessmentsindicateextensivedamagetohousingandcriticalagriculturalinfrastructure,destructionoffisheriesassetsaswellaslossesoflivestock,standingcropsandhouseholds’foodreserves.
Cerealproductionprospectsfor2023crops,currentlybeingplantedforharvestattheendoftheyear,areuncertain.Althoughhighcerealpricesmayencouragefarmerstoincreasetheareaplanted,theshortageandtheelevatedpricesofagriculturalinputsarelikelytopersist,potentiallycurtailingcropyields.Farmers’abilitytoaccessagriculturalinputsislikelytobeconstrainedalsobytheirlimitedfinancialresources
Figure1:Myanmar–Displacementtrends,March2021–May2023
Source:Author'sownelaborationbasedondatafromUNHCR,May2023.
/myanmar-emergency-regional-update
.
2
andaccesstoformalcredit.Inaddition,weatherforecastsfortheAugust–October2023monsoonseasonindicateahighlikelihoodofbelow-averagerainfallamountsinnorthernpartsofthe
country,v
whichcouldadverselyaffectcropproduction.
Surgingpricesconstrainaccesstofood
Reflectingtightavailability,duetothebelow-average2022cerealoutputandconflict-relateddisruptionstomarkets,pricesofdomesticallygrowncerealshavebeenontherisesinceearly2022.Exacerbatedbyhighpricesofagriculturalinputsandhightransportcosts,domesticpricesof“Emata”rice,awidelyconsumedquality,reachedrecordhighsinJune2023,nearlytriplingthealreadyhighlevelsfromayearearlier(Figure2).Pricesofgroundnutsanddifferenttypesofpulses,importantsourcesofproteininthelocaldiet,alsoincreasedsinceearly2022and,inJune2023,theywerebetween30and80percenthigheryear-on-year
andatrecordornear-recordlevels.Similarly,pricesofawiderangeofimportedbasicfooditems,includingwheatflour,cookingoils,meatanddairyproducts,wereatrecordornear-recordlevelsinJune2023.Pricelevelswereunderpinnedbyreducedavailabilityinlocalmarketsfollowingbelow-averagelevelsofimportssince2022,constrainedbythecountry’sgenerallylowimportcapacitylinkedtothesignificantdepreciationofthekyat.
Thelowavailabilityoffoodcommoditiesandtheirrecordpriceshaveadirectimpactonhouseholds’foodsecurity.Inruralareas,thebelow-averagecerealproductionin2022resultedinearlydepletionoffoodstocksandseverelyaffectedfinancialgainsoffarmers,pushingmanyhouseholdstoresorttocopingstrategies,suchassellingproductiveassetsandincurringdebttopayforfood,whichmaycompromiselivelihoodsinthemediumterm.
Figure2:Myanmar–Wholesalepricesof"Emata"riceinYangonmarket,June2021–June2023
Source:Author'sownelaborationbasedondatafromeTRADEMyanmar,2023.
.mm/
.
3
Notes
i.OCHA,HCT
.2023
.HumanitarianResponsePlanMyanmar.HumanitarianProgrammeCycle2023.Myanmar.January2023.
/sites/default/files/2023-01/mmr_humanitarian_
response_plan_2023%20final.pdf.
ii.UNHCR
.
2023.MyanmarEmergencyUpdate.UNHCRRegionalBureauforAsiaandPacific(RBAP).1May2023.
/myanmar-emergency-regional-update
.
iii.OCHA
.
2023.Myanmar:CycloneMochaFlashAppeal,May2023.HumanitarianCountryTeam.
23May2023.
/report/myanmar/myanmar-cyclone-mocha-flash-appeal-may-2023
.
iv.FAO
.
2023.TropicalcycloneMocha,Myanmar.TheimpactoftropicalcycloneMochaonagricultureand
livelihoods.FAOMyanmarandDIEM-Impactassessment.15May2023.
https://data-in-emergencies.fao.
org/apps/a97314f4fec34a448721f320829acfbe/explore
.
v.IRI
.
2023.Jul2023ClimateForecastDiscussionfortheperiodAug–OctthroughNov–Jan2024.NOAA's
ClimateProgramOfficeandColumbiaUniversity.15May2023.
/our-expertise/
climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/
.
4
ThisreportwaspreparedbytheGlobalInformationandEarlyWarningSystem(GIEWS)oftheMarketsandTradeDivisionofFAO.Theupdatesfocusondevelopinganomalousconditionsaimedatprovidingearlywarnings,aswellaslatestandmoreelaborateinformationthanotherGIEWSregularreportsonthefoodsecuritysituationofcountries,atbothnationalandsub-nationallevels.Noneoftheinformationinthisreportshouldberegardedasstatementsofgovernmentalviews.
FormoreinformationvisittheGIEWSWebsiteat:
/giews/en/
Enquiriesmaybedirectedto:
GlobalInformationandEarlyWarningSystemonFoodandAgriculture(GIEWS)
MarketsandTrade-EconomicandSocialDevelopment
GIEWS1@
FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)
Rome,Italy
TheGlobalInformationandEarlyWarningSystemonFoodandAgriculture(GIEWS)hassetupamailinglisttodisseminateitsreports.Tosubscribe,submittheRegistrationFormonthefollowinglink:
/k/Fao/markets_and_trade_english_giews_world
.
ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialinthisinformationproductdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionwhatsoeveronthepartoftheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)concerningthelegalordevelopmentstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.Thementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturers,whetherornotthesehavebeenpatented,doesnotimplythatthesehavebeenendorsedorrecommendedbyFAOinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.Dashedlinesonmapsrepresentapproximateborderlinesforwhichtheremaynotyetbefullagreement.
Theviewsexpressedinthisinformationproductarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsorpoliciesofFAO.
ISSN2707-1723[Print]
ISSN2707-1731[Online]
?FAO,2023
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Underthetermsofthislicense,thisworkmaybecopied,redistributedandadaptedfornon-commercialpurposes,providedthattheworkisappropriatelycited.Inanyuseofthiswork,thereshouldbenosuggestionthatFAOendorsesanyspecificorganization,productsorservices.TheuseoftheFAOlogoisnotpermitted.Iftheworkisadapted,thenitmustbelicensedunderthesameorequivalentCreativeCommonslicense.Ifatranslationofthisworkiscreated,itmustincludethefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththerequiredcitation:“ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbytheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO).FAOisnotresponsibleforthecontentoraccuracyofthistranslation.Theoriginal[Language]editionshallbetheauthoritativeedition."
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