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第八章人力資源規(guī)劃CHP8HumanResourcePlanning案例北京?？浦圃旃镜臓I(yíng)銷(xiāo)經(jīng)理趙旺在每周經(jīng)理例會(huì)上說(shuō)：“我有個(gè)好消息，我們可以與麥多德公司簽訂一大筆合同。我們所要做的就是在一年而不是兩年內(nèi)完成該方案。我告訴過(guò)他們我們能夠做到。〞然而人力資源副經(jīng)理王林的話卻讓每個(gè)人都必須面對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)，她說(shuō)：在我看來(lái)，我們現(xiàn)有的工人并不具備按麥多德公司的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)生產(chǎn)出優(yōu)質(zhì)產(chǎn)品所需要的專(zhuān)業(yè)知識(shí)。在原來(lái)兩年的方案進(jìn)度表中，我們?cè)桨笇?duì)現(xiàn)有工人逐步進(jìn)行培訓(xùn)，但是按現(xiàn)在這個(gè)新的時(shí)間表我們將不得不到勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)上招募那些具有該方面工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)的工人?；蛟S我們有必要進(jìn)一步分析一下這個(gè)方案，看看是否確實(shí)需要這么做。如果我們要在一年內(nèi)而不是兩年中完成這一方案，人力資源本錢(qián)將大幅度上升。不錯(cuò)，趙經(jīng)理，我們能夠做到這一點(diǎn)，但是由于有些約束條件，這個(gè)方案的效益會(huì)好嗎？假設(shè)：

你分別是營(yíng)銷(xiāo)經(jīng)理、人力資源經(jīng)理、公司總經(jīng)理，面對(duì)這種情況，你的態(tài)度是什么？

策之而知得失之計(jì)，作之而知?jiǎng)屿o之理，形之而知生死之地，角之而知有余缺乏之處?！?孫子兵法·虛實(shí)?

人力資源規(guī)劃〔HumanResourcePlanning〕的含義在企業(yè)開(kāi)展和經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)劃的指導(dǎo)下進(jìn)行人員的供需平衡，以滿足企業(yè)在不同開(kāi)展時(shí)期對(duì)人員的需求，為企業(yè)的開(kāi)展提供符合質(zhì)量和數(shù)量要求的人力資源保證。Employmentorpersonnelplanningistheprocessofdecidingwhatpositionsthefirmwillhavetofill,andhowtofillthem.概念理解(1)HRP要在企業(yè)開(kāi)展戰(zhàn)略和經(jīng)營(yíng)規(guī)劃的根底上來(lái)進(jìn)行。StrategicAnalysisWhathumanresourcesareneededandwhatareavailable?StrategicFormulationWhatisrequiredandnecessaryinsupportofhumanresources?StrategicImplementationHowwillthehumanresourcesbeallocated?Clarifyperformanceexpectationsandfuturemanagementmethods:values,guidingprinciplesbusinessmissionobjectivesandprioritiesresourceallocationsIdentifypeople-relatedbusinessissuesDefineHRstrategies,objectives,andactionplansImplementHRprocesses,policiesandpracticesImplementprocessestoachievedesiredresults:businessgoalscompanystrengths/weaknessesexternalopportunities/threatssourceofcompetitiveadvantageEstablishthecontext:businessgoalscompanystrengths/weaknessesexternalopportunities/threatssourceofcompetitiveadvantageStrategicAnalysisStrategyFormulationStrategyImplementationLinkingtheProcessesofHRPandStrategicPlanningEnsuringtheFitbetweenHRandStrategyExternalFit(orExternalAlignment)FocusesontheconnectionbetweenthebusinessobjectivesandthemajorinitiativesinHR.InternalFit(orInternalAlignment)AligningHRpracticeswithoneanothertoestablishaconfigurationthatismutuallyreinforcing.Step1:PlanningAwarenessStep4:OrganizationalResourceAnalysisStep5:Opportunity&ThreatIdentificationStep7:StrategyDesignStep6:GapAnalysisStep9:ProgressMeasurement&ControlStep8:StrategyImplementationStep2:GoalFormulationStep3:EnvironmentalAnalysisReminder:OrganizationStrategyModel概念理解(2)HRP包括對(duì)企業(yè)特定時(shí)期內(nèi)的人員供給和需求進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)、根據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)的結(jié)果采取相應(yīng)的措施進(jìn)行供需平衡。HRP對(duì)企業(yè)人力資源供給和需求的預(yù)測(cè)要從數(shù)量和質(zhì)量這兩個(gè)方面來(lái)進(jìn)行。ResultsofInadequateHRPlanningVacantpositionscreatecostlyinefficienciesOvertimehoursatpremiumcostSimultaneouslayoffsandhiringMasslayoffsrequiring:SeverancepayExtendednoticeperiodsineffectivetraining,development,careerplanningTurnoverofhighperformersProblemswithemploymentequitygoalsInabilitytomeetoperationalandstrategicplansPurposeofHRPHRP’spurposeistheeffectivedeploymentofhumanresourcesthrough:Anticipatingorganizationallaborsupplyanddemand.ProvidingexpandedemploymentopportunitiesGuidingthedevelopmentandtrainingtheworkforce.人力資源規(guī)劃的內(nèi)容Comprehensivenessofplanning“Plan-basedHRP〞ispartoforganization’sbusinessplanningHRPforspecialprojects--plannedorunplannedneedsAssignmentplanSupplementplanRetirementorTerminationplanWages&MotivationplanTraining&DevelopmentplanPromotionplanHRPHRP的意義和作用有助于企業(yè)開(kāi)展戰(zhàn)略的制定有助于企業(yè)保持人員狀況的穩(wěn)定有助于企業(yè)降低人工本錢(qián)的開(kāi)支對(duì)HRM的其他職能具有指導(dǎo)意義RelationshipsCompensationManagementAssessingPerformanceForecastthedemandofhrForecastthesupplyofhrD＞SrecruitmentdeploymentTraining&developmentD=SD＜SDismiss&layoffdeployment人力資源規(guī)劃的程序企業(yè)內(nèi)部環(huán)境：經(jīng)營(yíng)戰(zhàn)略、發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略、管理風(fēng)格、管理體系企業(yè)的外部環(huán)境：政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、文化、法律、相關(guān)政策企業(yè)的現(xiàn)有人力資源“人力資源的數(shù)量、質(zhì)量、結(jié)構(gòu)、潛力需求分析供給分析內(nèi)部供給外部供給人員分析勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)狀況,擇業(yè)偏好,企業(yè)吸引力,外部競(jìng)爭(zhēng)內(nèi)部供給預(yù)測(cè)外部供給預(yù)測(cè)職位分析需求預(yù)測(cè)需求的數(shù)量、質(zhì)量比較供給的數(shù)量、質(zhì)量制定并實(shí)施供需平衡的計(jì)劃評(píng)估人力資源規(guī)劃人力資源規(guī)劃的程序

implementthebalanceableplanAssessHRPdemandanalysissupplyanalysisInternalsupplyExternalsupplyEmployeeanalysislabourmarketstatus,attraction,externalcompetitionForecastinginternalsupplyForecastingexternalsupplyPositionanalysisForecastingdemandQuantityandqualityofdemandcompareQuantityandqualityofsupplyInternalenvironment：managementstratagem、developmentstratagemmanagementstyle,managementsystemExternalenvironment：politics,economicculture,law,relevantpolicyExistingHR:quantity、quality,structurepotentialHRPandEnvironmentalScanningEnvironmentalScanningThesystematicmonitoringofthemajorexternalforcesinfluencingtheorganization.Economicfactors:generalandregionalconditionsCompetitivetrends:newprocesses,services,andinnovationsTechnologicalchanges:roboticsandofficeautomationPoliticalandlegislativeissues:lawsandadministrativerulingsSocialconcerns:childcareandeducationalprioritiesDemographictrends:age,composition,andliteracyScanningtheInternalEnvironmentCulturalAuditsAuditsofthecultureandqualityofworklifeinanorganization.Howdoemployeesspendtheirtime?Howdotheyinteractwitheachother?Areemployeesempowered?Whatisthepredominantleadershipstyleofmanagers?Howdoemployeesadvancewithintheorganization?BenchmarkingTheprocessofcomparingtheorganization’sprocessesandpracticeswiththoseofothercompanies.FORECASTINGDEMANDConsiderationsProduct/servicedemandTechnologyFinancialresourcesAbsenteeism/turnoverOrganizationalgrowthManagementphilosophyTechniquesTrendanalysisManagerialestimatesDelphitechniqueTechniquesStaffingtablesMarkovanalysisSkillsinventoriesManagementinventoriesReplacementchartsSuccessionPlanningExternalConsiderationsDemographicchangesEducationoftheworkforceLaborMobilityGovernmentpoliciesUnemploymentrateFORECASTINGSUPPLYBALANCING

SUPPLYANDDEMAND(Shortage)RecruitmentFull-timePart-timeRecalls(Surplus)ReductionsLayoffsTerminationsDemotionsRetirements人力資源需求的預(yù)測(cè)

ForecastingPersonnelNeeds人力資源需求的分析StrategyandplansProductandservicedemandProjectedturnoverQualityandskillsofyouremployeesStrategicdecisionstoupgradethequalityofproductsorservicesorenterintonewmarketsTechnologicalandotherchangesresultinginincreasedproductivity.ThefinancialresourceavailabletoyourdepartmentWorkloadofapositionEfficiencychanging人力資源需求預(yù)測(cè)的方法主觀判斷法ManagerialEstimate

Managementforecastsaretheopinions(judgments)ofsupervisors,departmentmanagers,experts,orothersknowledgeableabouttheorganization’sfutureemploymentneeds.

德?tīng)柗品―elphitechniqueTheDelphitechniqueisamethodforobtainingforecastsfromapanelofindependentexpertsovertwoormorerounds.差距提交反饋修改提交反饋修改提交反饋批準(zhǔn)第一輪第二輪第三輪提交：經(jīng)營(yíng)計(jì)劃、編制、人力成本反饋：優(yōu)／缺點(diǎn)、建議、意見(jiàn)修改：經(jīng)營(yíng)計(jì)劃、財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)算通過(guò)反復(fù)的反饋與修改縮短經(jīng)營(yíng)計(jì)劃與公司總體財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)算的差距。德?tīng)柗品ǖ奶卣髂涿詫掖斡锌刂频姆错懢C合性德?tīng)柗品ǖ牟襟E確定預(yù)測(cè)題目，選定專(zhuān)家小組；設(shè)計(jì)調(diào)查表，準(zhǔn)備有關(guān)材料；征詢專(zhuān)家初次判斷意見(jiàn)；綜合整理收回的各位專(zhuān)家初次判斷意見(jiàn)，作出定量化的歸納，加以必要說(shuō)明。并反響給各位專(zhuān)家，請(qǐng)他們?cè)俅嗡伎?，提出判斷意?jiàn)；經(jīng)過(guò)反復(fù)征詢意見(jiàn)后，做出預(yù)測(cè)值。德?tīng)柗品ǖ膬?yōu)點(diǎn)：

〔1〕各專(zhuān)家能夠在不受干擾的情況下，獨(dú)立、充分地說(shuō)明自己的意見(jiàn)；

〔2〕預(yù)測(cè)值是根據(jù)各位專(zhuān)家的意見(jiàn)綜合而成的，能夠發(fā)揮集體的智慧；

〔3〕應(yīng)用面比較廣，費(fèi)用比較節(jié)省。德?tīng)柗品ǖ娜秉c(diǎn)：

在綜合預(yù)測(cè)值時(shí)，僅僅是根據(jù)各專(zhuān)家的主觀判斷，缺乏客觀標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，而且顯得強(qiáng)求一致。趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)法Trendanalysis

Thestudyofafirm’spastemploymentneedsoveraperiodofyearstopredictfutureneeds.回歸分析Regressionanalysis比率預(yù)測(cè)法RatioanalysisAforecastingtechniquefordeterminingfuturestaffneedsbyusingratiosbetweenacausalfactorandthenumberofemployeesneeded.Assumesthattherelationshipbetweenthecausalfactorandstaffingneedsisconstant趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)法例題

某公司過(guò)去8年人員的數(shù)據(jù)如下，請(qǐng)預(yù)測(cè)今后第二年和第四年人力資源的需求是多少年度12345678人數(shù)450455465480485490510525趨勢(shì)線可以表示為ab確實(shí)定根據(jù)最小平方法這樣就可以預(yù)測(cè)出今后第二年和第四年的人力資源需求為RatioAnalysis

比率分析#patients病人=100#nurses護(hù)士=25patient病人/nurse護(hù)士ratio比率=4/1Ifthereare315patients,howmanynursesareneeded?如果有315個(gè)病人，需要多少護(hù)士？人力資源供給的預(yù)測(cè)

ForecastingPersonnelsupplyForecastingtheSupplyofOutsideCandidatesFactorsimpactingthesupplyofoutsidecandidatesGeneraleconomicconditionsLaborMarketsExpectedunemploymentrateattractionofenterpriseAttitudetowardjobForecastingtheSupplyofinsideCandidates現(xiàn)有人力資源的分析人力資源自身的自然變化〔退休、生育〕，主要是對(duì)年齡、性別、身體狀況等等進(jìn)行分析。人員流動(dòng)的分析〔重要前提假定：人員的質(zhì)量不發(fā)生變化〕人員由企業(yè)流出人員在企業(yè)內(nèi)部流動(dòng)人員的質(zhì)量分析〔假定：人員沒(méi)有發(fā)生流動(dòng)〕顯性原因：如工資的增加技能的培訓(xùn)隱形原因加班加點(diǎn)工作分享、縮短工作時(shí)間人力資源供給預(yù)測(cè)的方法SkillInventoriesReplacementChartsMarkovAnalysisInternalsupplyForecastingToolsSkillInventoriesFilesofpersonneleducation,experience,interests,skills,etc.,thatallowmanagerstoquicklymatchjobopeningswithemployeebackgrounds.PersonnelreplacementchartsCompanyrecordsshowingpresentperformanceandpromotabilityofinsidecandidatesforthemostimportantpositions.Figure4.6人力資源水池模型現(xiàn)有員工30人流出15人流入9人未來(lái)的內(nèi)部供給24人12342+31(23)36960279036職位層次AB將提升到上一層次外部招聘將提升到本層次退休＋辭職〔提升受阻〕A現(xiàn)有人員B可提升人員調(diào)入6人現(xiàn)有30人調(diào)出和離職10人未來(lái)供給28人調(diào)入10人現(xiàn)有40人調(diào)出和離職5人未來(lái)供給47人調(diào)入6人現(xiàn)有50人調(diào)出和離職12人未來(lái)供給40人晉升5人降職3人晉升8人降職3人降職4人內(nèi)部供給總量115人馬爾科夫模型是用來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)等時(shí)間間隔點(diǎn)上〔一般為1年〕各類(lèi)人員分布狀況的一種動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測(cè)技術(shù)。Markovanalysisshowsthepercentage(andactualnumber)ofemployeeswhoremainineachjobfromoneyeartothenext,aswellastheproportionsofthosewhoarepromoted,transferred,orexittheorganization.

某類(lèi)人員的轉(zhuǎn)移率〔p〕=本類(lèi)人員原有數(shù)量轉(zhuǎn)移出本類(lèi)人員數(shù)量例題1：三類(lèi)人員的轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣和現(xiàn)在三類(lèi)人員分布狀況，如果每年向第一類(lèi)補(bǔ)充80人，求未來(lái)人力資源供給分布狀況。

類(lèi)別總數(shù)ABCt=0,2006員轉(zhuǎn)移率p，t＝0時(shí)人員分布情況，每年向A類(lèi)補(bǔ)充人數(shù)80人根據(jù)馬爾可夫計(jì)算公式可知，某類(lèi)人員在t時(shí)刻的供給量N＝該類(lèi)人員總數(shù)×留存率＋補(bǔ)充人數(shù).其中，補(bǔ)充人數(shù)=下類(lèi)人員總數(shù)×?xí)x升率＋該類(lèi)招聘人數(shù)＋上類(lèi)人員總數(shù)×降職率列表預(yù)測(cè)2007－2021年三類(lèi)人員供給情況時(shí)間類(lèi)別總數(shù)ABC補(bǔ)充＋存留晉升＋存留晉升＋存留t=0=1,80+140×0.6=164140×0.3+100×0.4=82100×0.3+60×0.6=66312t=2,80+164×0.6=178164×0.3+82×0.4=8282×0.3+66×0.6=64324t=3,80+178×0.6=187178×0.3+82×0.4=8682×0.3+64×0.6=63336t=4,80+187×0.6=192187×0.3+86×0.4=9186×0.3+63×0.6=64347例題2：假設(shè)某企業(yè)有四類(lèi)職位，從高到低依次是A,B,C,D,各類(lèi)人員的分布情況如下表，請(qǐng)預(yù)測(cè)一下未來(lái)人員的分布。職位ABCD人數(shù)4080100150T年ABCD離職率合計(jì)A0．90．1B0．10．70．2C0．10．750．050．1D0．20．60．2解：T＋1年期初人數(shù)ABCD離職率合計(jì)A40364B8085616C1001075510D150309030預(yù)測(cè)的供給44661059560BalancingdemandandsupplyofHR

人力資源供需的平衡Dealingwithanoversupplyofpersonnel

人員供給過(guò)剩處理Freezehiring

凍結(jié)雇傭Restrictovertime

限制超時(shí)Retrain/redeploy

重新培訓(xùn)/調(diào)動(dòng)Switchtopart-timeemployees

轉(zhuǎn)成兼職員工Useunpaidvacations

采用無(wú)薪休假 Useashorterworkweek

采用縮短的工作周Usepayreductions

采用減少工資Usesabbaticals

采用周期性休息Encourageearlyretirements

鼓勵(lì)提前退休Hireadditionalworkers

雇傭另外的工人Improveproductivitythroughtraining

通過(guò)培訓(xùn)提高生產(chǎn)力Useovertime

采用超時(shí)Addadditionalshifts

增加另外