牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院-2023年三季度了解小企業(yè)健康狀況的窗口（英）

Yourwindowintosmallbusinesshealth

Q32023

ConsumerCredittightening

Executivesummary

OutstandingperformanceinthethirdquarterisagreatheadlinefocusedontheresiliencyoftheAmericanconsumer.Businessconfidenceandfinancialsbenefitedfromaconsumerconfidenceboostasmarketconditionsappearedto

improveasinflationreceded.Consumerspendingremainedelevated,supportingsmallbusinesscashflowhealth,butarisingpercentageofthatconsumerspendoriginatedfromleveragedconsumercreditproducts.Creditorshavebeenmonitoringtheriseinunsecureddebtutilizationandputtingintoactionexposurelimitingunderwritingcriteria.This

actionmeantthatsomeconsumersandsmallbusinesseswerelesslikelytogainaccesstonewcreditattheirprimarylenderbutwereabletoseekoutfundingfromanalternatelenderatamoreriskappropriatepricepoint.Commercialandconsumercreditmarketsremainopenandavailableacrossrisktiers.Thefourthquarterlooksabitmoretense

asbusinessesholdonrestockinginventoryaselevatedconsumerpricespushbackonthevolumeofpurchases

consumerscanengage.Aweakeningretailoutlookmakesbusinessesrethinktheirholidaystrategies.Thesecautiousmovementsleadtoexposurelimitingdecisionsthatwillimpactindustriesalongthesupplychain.Thereispotentialforasoftlandingin2024,butthatwillleadtoalongerperiodofhigherthantargetedinflationandloweroverallgrowth

expectationsfortheU.S.

Anoddtwisttoreadaboutaheadisthereversalinthetideoflenderopiniontocontinuetighteningcommercial

underwritingcriteria.Readmoretofindoutwhytheywouldconsider,asweenterasloweconomiccycleintheU.S.

Page2|Q32023

MacroeconomicOverview

ThestrengthoftheU.S.economyevidentthroughoutthethirdquarterisunsustainableandtheearlysignsarethattheeconomyhasslowedatthebeginningofthefourthquarter.OxfordEconomicsexpectsthemacroeconomicbackdropforsmallbusinesswilldeteriorateheadinginto2024withU.S.GDPgrowthforecasttoslowsignificantlytoabelow-

trend1%nextyear.Tightmonetaryandfiscalpolicywillweighoninvestment,theinventorycyclelookssettoturn,andmountingheadwindstohouseholdfinancesaresettounderminetherecentresilienceofconsumerspending.

TheeconomycontinuedtohumalonginQ3,expandingby4.9%annualized,buttherapidgrowthevidentintheheadlinenumbersmasksignsofweaknessunderneath.Thecontinuedstrengthofconsumerspendingwasonlypossible

becausehouseholdsdippedintotheirsavings,withhouseholds’personalsavingratefallingtohistoriclowsinQ3.

Partofthereasonisthatconsumershavebeenspendingdownsavingsleftoverfromthepandemic,butthosesavingsarenowmostlyexhaustedamonglower-andmiddle-classhouseholds,withtheremainderconcentratedinhigher-

incomehouseholds.Whilemanyofthosepandemic-erasavingswereinitiallyheldincheckingorsavingaccounts,mostofthoseremainingassetsarenowinlessliquidinvestmentsandarenowbeingtreatedmoreaswealththanincome,meaningthattheyarelesslikelytobespent.

U.S.:Distributionofexcesssavingsbyincomequartile

Source:OxfordEconomics/HaverAnalytics

Thissuggeststhatthestrengthofconsumerspending,whichhasdeliveredstrongsalesandearningsgrowthforsmallfirmsthisyear,issettofade,particularlyongoodsandservicesskewedtowardslowerormoremoderate-income

households.Theyarefacingnotonlydepletedsavings,butseeingasharperslowdowninrealincomesgrowthaswagegrowthforlower-paidoccupationsisslowingthefastest.

Q32023|Page3

Net%ofBanksTighteningLendingStandards(Consumer)

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212023

creditcards一Autootherconsumer

Source:FederalReserveSeniorLoanOfficerOpinionSurveyonBankLendingPractices

Therenewedsurgeinborrowingcostsoverthethirdquarterhastightenedoverallfinancialconditionsmarkedly.Itis

notjustthecostofcreditincreasing,buttheavailabilityofcreditisalsotightening.Thatinturnwillweighonconsumerspendingondurables,includingautos,withthegoods-producingsectorsoftheeconomylikelytofaretheworst.Wearealreadyseeingaclearimpactonhousingdemand,withareneweddownturninhomesalesandhousingconstructionlikelyoverthenextfewquarters,asworseningmortgageaffordabilityfeedsthrough.ThehousingmarketintheWest,whichwasoneofthebiggestbeneficiariesoflowinterestrates,isbeinghitparticularlyhardasmortgagecostsrise

again,withthesharpslumpinhomebuilderconfidenceconsistentwithaslideinhousingconstructionahead.

Higherborrowingcostsandtightercreditavailabilityarealsoweighingdirectlyonfirms’investmentplans,withtheshareofsmallfirmsplanningcapexandhiringfallingbackoverthepastyear.Theadditionalstrainisevidentinagradualpickupindelinquenciesacrossarangeoflendingtocorporates.

Oneunderappreciatedfactorsupportingtheeconomythisyearhasbeenlooserfiscalpolicy,asgovernmentspendinghasrisen,andtaxpaymentsdroppedback.Unusualforanelectionyear,fiscalpolicyissettobetightenedthankstoareboundintaxpaymentsandtightercapsonspending.Apotentialgovernmentshutdownlookstohavebeenavoided

fornow,buttheriskwillreturnearlynextyear,withthethreatofatemporaryhalttoFederalworkers’paychecks,whichisadownsiderisk.Iflawmakerscannotreachabudgetagreementintime,automaticspendingcutswillcomeinto

place,weighingoneconomicgrowth.

Adownturnineconomicgrowthfromtightmonetaryandfiscalpolicy,andthemountingheadwindstohousehold

incomewillhaveadirectknock-onimpactforfirmshiringplans.OxfordEconomicsexpectstheunemploymentratetorisetocloseto5%bythemiddleofnextyear,frombelow4%inOctober.Thesilverliningtotheslowinglabormarket

isthatitwillhelptoeasetheperenniallaborshortagesofthepastfewyears,makingworkerseasiertofindforthosebusinessesthatareexpanding.Looserlabormarketconditionswillalsohelptocoolwagegrowthwhichwillreducethepressureonfirms’costbase.

Page4|Q32023

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20.0%

U.S.:NFIBcompensationplans&wagegrowth

Net%

50

40

30

20

0

20012004200720102013201620192022

%y/y

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-NFIB:raisedcompensationinpastthreemonths-LHS,6m.leadOEWagetracker-RHS

Source:OxfordEconomics/HaverAnalytics

Inflationisalreadyeasing,driveninlargepartbylowergasprices,andcoolingpricepressuresforarangeofgoodsassupplychainconditionshaveeased.

InflationforFood,Energy,andShelter—Year-Over-YearRateofInflation

-RentInfationFoodInfationEnergyInfation

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics

Whilethosetrendshavefurthertorunoverthenext3-6months,theprocessofloweringinflationinservicesdependsonwagegrowthmoderating,whichisproceedingonlygradually.

Q32023|Page5

●6%

23%

10%18%

FederalFundsRateForecast

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

current：5.4%(5.25-5.50%)

20182019202020212022202320242025

FedFundsRateMarchForecastJuneForecastsept(Latest)Forecast

Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis,SummaryofEconomicProjectionsJune2023andSept2023,andFederalReserve

Withinflationsettoremainabove2%forthenextfewyears,thepressureremainsontheFedtokeepmonetarypolicytight.Officialswillleaveratesonholdfornow,andnotexpectingratestobeginfallinguntilSeptember2024.Asrates

areconsideredforcuts,anylooseninginmonetarypolicywillbefarmoregradualthaninpreviouseasingcycles,whichmeansthatevenoncetheeconomiccyclebottomsoutnextyear,therewillnotbeastrongimpetusforarapidreboundingrowthratesfurtherahead.

U.S.Business

U.S.Businessesperformedwellthroughthethirdquarterasconsumerspendingremainedstrong.

Consumerspendingbehavior

Inflation-Adjusted(Real)ConsumerSpendingIndex:Feb2020=100

140

130

120

90

80

20192020202120222023

一TotalGoodssericesGoods:Jewelryandwatches

Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis

Inrecentmarketcommunicationsandearningreports,businesseslikeWalmartandTargetareexperiencingweakeningconsumerspendingastheycompeteforholidaydollarsasmarginpressuresqueezesprofits.Commercialconfidence,acrosstheU.S.marketisweakeningintothefourthquarter,asconsumerslookatdiscretionaryspendingactivitiesasalevertopulltolimitexposureaseconomicconditionsbecomemoretense.

Anadditionaldragislikelytobetheturningoftheinventorycycle.Afteryearsofshortages,mostfirmsnowreport

thatinventoriesarebloated,andamidelevatedinterestratesandslowingsales,particularlyofgoods,weexpectfirmsacrosstheeconomytodestockoverthecomingquarters,providinganadditionaldragforthewarehousingand

logisticsindustries.

Page6|Q32023

The2023holidayseasonismarkedbya“softlanding”economicscenario.Consumerspendingisrobust,with74%ofconsumersplanningtospendthesameormorethanlastyear.Thisspendingoptimismcontrastswith2022,whereoverbuiltinventoriesledtosignificantdiscounts.Thisyear,retailershavenormalizedinventories,avoidingsuch

markdowns,whichshouldbenefitsalesandmargins.

Intermsofretailstrategies,thereisanearlierstarttoholidayshopping,with60%ofshoppingexpectedtobecompletebytheendofNovember.Thistrendnecessitatesanearlydeploymentofdealsandmarketingeffortsbyretailers,

especiallyononlineplatforms,wherepersonalizationandtargetedloyaltyprogramsarebecomingincreasinglyvital.

Theconsumerretailspendingtrendsforthe2023holidayseasonintheUnitedStatesexhibitedseveralnoteworthy

dynamics.Comparedto2022,therewasanoverallincreaseinspending,withconsumersallocatingmoreforgifts,

travel,andentertainment.Thisyear,accordingto,theaveragespendingwasaround$1,530,markinga7%risefromthepreviousyear.Notably,travel-relatedspendingsawasignificant12%increaseoverthe2022holidayseason.

Theyear-over-yearcomparisonrevealsamixedpicture.Whilesources,liketheNationalRetailFederation(NRF),

expectedholidayspendingtoreachrecordlevelswithagrowthof3%to4%over2022.Thisgrowthratealignswiththeaverageannualincreaseobservedfrom2010to2019.

Severalfactorscontributedtothesetrends.Therewasageneralsenseofoptimismamongconsumers,withahigherwillingnesstospendacrosscategoriescomparedtolastyear.OnlineshoppingcontinuedtoleadinU.S.holiday

spending,butin-storepurchasesalsosawarise,indicatingabalanceinshoppingpreferences;however,thefrequencyofstorevisitsandtheuseofBuyOnline,Pick-upinStoreservicesdeclined.

InOctober2023,theannualtrendinretailsalesslowedto2.5%yearoveryear,downfrom4.1%inSeptember.In

inflation-adjustedterms,retailsaleswere0.7%lowerrelativetothepreviousyear.Thisindicatedacoolingofthe

economyafterastronger-than-expectedperformanceoverthesummer,withsignsofmoderatingconsumerdemand.Retailsalesdecreasedby0.1%inOctober2023fromthepreviousmonthbutstillshowedayear-over-yeargrowth

of2.5%.

Thesetrendsreflectadynamicretaillandscapein2023,markedbysignificantgrowthincertainquartersandsectors,butalsoshowingsignsofmoderationtowardstheendoftheyear.Thismoderationwillimpactindustrysegments

criticaltotheU.S.supplychain.

Duringthe2023holidayshoppingseason,twosmallbusinesssegmentswillexperianceamoreprominentimpact,warehouseandtransportation,asretailersengagemoreadaptableinventorystrategiestorespondtodynamic

consumerspendingpatterns.The2023holidayseasonrevealssignificantshiftsinconsumerbehaviorandretailstrategies,withimplicationsforthewarehouseandtransportationindustryextendinginto2024.

Q32023|Page7

U.S.CommercialInventories

Source:DallasFederalReserve

Retailersandwholesalersarecyclingthroughbloated2022inventoriesandofferinglessdiscountstotravelersforthe2023season.Lessinventoryisneededtosupportconsumerdemand,becauseinflationhasdriventheperunitcoststoapointwhereconsumerpurchasingbehaviorischanging.Lowerunitneedleadstoreduceddemandtorestock.NewordersaredownYOYbecausethecurrentstrategyreducestheneedforelevatedrestockingorders.

U.S.CommercialNewOrders

Source:DallasFederalReserve

Page8|Q32023

550

500

U.S.Businesslending

Commerciallendingremainsopentosmallbusinesses.Opendoesnotmeanthatthefundingavailableischeap.U.S.inflationisabovetheFederalReserve’s2%target.Themostrecentmarketcoolinghasnottranslatedtoborrowing

savingsaslendersmanageexposure,pricinginmacroeconomicbumpsinthenearterm.Businessesweighthecostoffundsmorecarefullyastheylookforapathwaytogrowin2023.Smallbusinessoriginationshavebeenstablefromanoverallmarketperspective.Adynamicobservedinrecentquartersisadeclineinconsumerscores(Down1.6%)andcommercialcreditscores(Down4.3%).

CommercialScoresdeclining—ConsumerandCommercialScoreTrendsforBusinessOwners

800

750

700

650

commercialcreditscore一consumercreditscore

Source:ExperianCommercialBenchmark

Lenderswillneedtoreassessunderwritingtiersasconsumersandsmallbusinessestransitionoutoflenderbuyboxasscoresnormalize.Togrow,simplifyandreducecompetingknockoutrulesinpre-underwritingprocessesanda

revalidationofriskandprofitabilityarerecommended.Whatiscausingthesescorestotransition:

?Lessstimulusavailableinthemarkettocreateartificialcashflowforsmallbusinesses.

?Increasedutilizationoncreditcards.

?Risingrepaymentdelinquencybehavior.

In2023,smallbusinessdelinquencytrendsintheUnitedStatesarenormalizingtolevelsseenbeforethepandemic,

signalingarobustrecoveryinthesmallbusinesssector.Thisnormalizationreflectstheresilienceandadaptabilityof

smallbusinessesinnavigatingthechallengingeconomiclandscapepost-pandemic.Weobservedimprovedcashflows,betteraccesstofinancing,andtheeffectiveutilizationofgovernmentsupportprogramshaveplayedpivotalrolesin

thisprogress.ThistrendisapositiveindicatorfortheoverallhealthoftheU.S.economy,suggestingareturntopre-pandemicstabilityinthesmallbusinesscreditmarket.

Q32023|Page9

Commercialdelinquencyratescool

RegionalCommercialCard60+Delinquency

0.50%

0.40%

0.30%

0.20%

0.10%

0.00%

Midwest一Northeastsouth一southwest一west

Source:ExperianCommercialBenchmark

Inthelatterhalfof2023,therehasbeenanoticeableuptickinChapter11bankruptcies.Chapter11bankruptcy,knownforallowingbusinessestoreorganizewhilekeepingtheirdoorsopen,hasbecomeago-tosolutionforcompaniesfacingfinancialdistress.

Severalfactorscontributetothissurge:

?EconomicShifts:Post-pandemic,businessesarestillgrapplingwithdisruptedsupplychainsandfluctuatingconsumerdemands.Addtothistherisinginterestratesandinflation,creatingachallengingenvironmentforbusinesses,especiallythosestillrecoveringfromthepandemic’simpact.

?Industry-SpecificStruggles:Certainsectors,liketransportationandwarehousing,aremoreseverelyimpactedduetochangingsmallbusinessstrategiesputinplacetocounteractlowervolumedemandbroughtaboutbyhigher

unitprices.

?GovernmentPolicyChanges:Reducedgovernmentsupportandchangesinfiscalpolicieshaveleftbusinesseswithoutthesafetynettheypreviouslyreliedon.

Page10|Q32023

Commercialbankruptcyratepicksupsteam

Chapter11BankruptciesintheUnitedStates

50000

40000

30000

20000

0

chapter11Bankruptciesintheunitedstates

Source:

Lookingahead,thetrendsuggestsaneedforbusinessestoadaptrapidlytochangingeconomicconditions.Forcompaniesstrugglingfinancially,Chapter11offersapathwaytorestructureandhopefullyemergestrongerontheotherside.Aswemoveinto2024,itwillbeinterestingtoseehowbusinessesevolveandadaptinresponsetothesechallenges.

Consistentspending,bondandequitymarketsperforming,anddelinquencyratesnormalizingarefactorsinthemarketthataretintinglendersglassesrosy,asFOMOopenslenderstoreconsideringriskoforiginatingcomingintoapotentialsoftlanding.

Q32023|Page11

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

Commerciallendersseeimproveddemand

Net%ofBanksReportingStrongerDemandfromBusinesses(CommercialandIndustrialLoans)

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%

-80%

199119951999200320072011201520192023

一LargeandMiddle-MarketFirms一smallFirms

Source:FederalReserveSeniorLoanOfficerOpinionSurveyonBankLendingPractices

AstheU.S.macroeconomicenvironmentshowssignsofslowingdown,commerciallendersfaceastrategiccrossroad.Acounterintuitivebutpotentiallyeffectivestrategyistoloosencreditunderwritingcriteria.

Commerciallendersconsiderlooseningunderwriting

Net%ofBanksTighteningLendingStandardstoBusinesses(CommercialandIndustrialLoans)

199119951999200320072011201520192023

一LargeandMiddle-MarketFirms一smallFirms

Source:FederalReserveSeniorLoanOfficerOpinionSurveyonBankLendingPractices

Thisapproachcanbejustifiedforseveralreasons.Duringeconomicdownturns,businessesoftenneedfinancialsupporttonavigatethroughtoughtimes.Byrelaxingcreditstandards,lenderscanprovidealifelinetothese

businesses,fosteringlong-termrelationshipsandloyalty.Thissupportnotonlyhelpsbusinessessurvivebutcanalso

positionthelenderasatrustedpartner,leadingtofuturebusinessopportunities.Aslowingeconomyoftenleadsto

lowerinterestrates.Insuchanenvironment,thecostofborrowingdecreases,reducingtheriskassociatedwithlending.Thisscenariocanencouragelenderstotakeonslightlymoreriskbyeasingcreditterms,astheoverallrisk-return

profileremainsattractive.Diversifyingthecreditportfolioisvitalinuncertaintimes.Bylendingtoabroaderrangeof

businesses,lenderscanspreadtheirriskandpotentiallytapintonewmarketsthatshowresilienceorgrowthpotential,eveninaslowingeconomy.Whilecounterintuitive,looseningcreditunderwritingcriteriacanbeastrategicmovefor

commerciallendersfacingaslowingmacroeconomicenvironmentintheU.S.Itisacalculatedriskthatbalancesshort-termchallengeswithlong-termgrowthopportunities.

Page12|Q32023

Expectations

Robustcorporateearningswereasignthatconsumerswerespendinginthethirdquarter.TheU.S.Inflation

ratehadfallento3.2%andtheFederalFundsrate

signaledithadplateauedat5.3%.Technologycompanieswereacceleratingperformancewiththeexponential

releaseofnewproductsandsolutionssurrounding

groundbreakingAItechnology.Consumerandbusinesscreditdelinquenciesnormalized,andnewcredit

originationsremainedconstantandopenacrossallcreditrisktiers.Companiesheldontoemployees,although

slowingnewhireactivity,keepingthelabormarketstrongandconsumerspendingelevated.Themarketleaned

intothesesignalsasamessagetokeepinvestingandgrowingasGDPhit4.9%inthethirdquarter.

Retailspendingfacespressuresin2024:Thebalancebetweenonlineandin-storeshopping,alongwith

consumers’responsetopromotionsanddiscounts,willcontinuetoinfluencespending.While2023sawahealthyincreaseinholidayspending,withgrowthintravelandabalancebetweenonlineandin-storeshopping,theoutlookfor2024remainscautious,

influencedbybroadereconomicfactorssuchasinflationandconsumerconfidence.

LogisticsandtransportationindustryplayerslikeYellow,whoclosedtheirdoorsinthelastquarter,areimpactedbycontinuedU.S.inflationimpactonconsumerspendingpower.Supplychainparticipantsarereapingthebenefitsoffallingfuelpricesandmarginexpansion,butconsumerpressurewillsoonshrinkthosemarginsandcreate

challengesinprofitability.

Thereducedneedforwarehousespaceand

manufacturingcapacitywillleadtoareductioninnew

commercialconstruction.Highlendingrateswillalso

impactonbusinesses’abilitytorefinanceCREdebt,as

ratesremainhighforthenextyear.Foreclosureswill

increase,exacerbatedbyspecialtylendingproductssuchasmezzanineloansthatlowerthebarriertoforeclosure,andplacedownwardpricepressureoncommercialreal-estateandmakerezoninginitiativesmoreattractive.

Aswesprinkleabitofholidaymagicoverthepast

quarterandreflectonwhatcouldbeahead,weunwrapataleofresilienceandadaptabilityintheAmerican

economy,particularlyamongsmallbusinesses.The

thirdquartershonebrightlywithconsumerconfidence

receivingaboostasinflationreceded,keeping

consumerspendinghigh.Thistrendwasabeaconofhopeforsmallbusinesses,supportingtheircashflowhealth.Aninterestingtwistemergedwithasizable

portionofconsumerspendingcomingfromleveragedcreditproducts.

Despiteconsumersandsmallbusinessesfindingit

challengingtoaccessnewcreditatprimarylenders,

alternatelendingsourcescametotherescue,offering

fundingatrisk-appropriatepricepoints.Thereportpaints

apictureofacommercialandconsumercreditmarketthatremainsopenandaccessibleacrossvarious

risktiers.

Lookingaheadtothefourthquarterandbeyond,weseealandscapetwinklingwithbothopportunityandcaution.Businessesarerethinkingtheirholidaystrategiesand

inventorystocking,reflectingaprudentapproachina

marketwhereconsumerpricesareaffectingpurchasingvolumes.Thiscautiousstanceisexpectedtorippleacrossindustries,influencingsupplychaindecisions.

For2024,theforecastisamixedbagofgoodies.Whilewemayseea‘softlanding’,itcouldleadtoextendedperiodsofhigher-than-targetedinflationandsubduedgrowth

expectations.However,theresilienceshownbysmall

businesses,astheynavigatethesechallengingeconomicconditions,bringsaglimmerofhopeandoptimism.

Intherealmofholidayspendingfor2023,consumers

showedahearteningtrendofplanningtospendthesameormorethanthepreviousyear,withasizableportionofthisspendinggoingtowardstravelandentertainment.

Retailers,respondingtothisconsumeroptimism,haveoptimizedtheirinventories,andareengaginginmoretargetedandearlymarketingefforts,especiallyonline.

Likeawell-litholidayhome,fullofbrightspotsand

cautiousoptimism,theU.S.consumerplayingtheroleofthestaratopthetree,guidesthewayforbusinessesandinvestmentthroughanotherholidayseason.

ScanthisQRcodetovisitour

CommercialInsightsHub

,aone-stoplocationforup-to-datecreditinsightsonU.S.smallbusinesses.

Q32023|Page13

Aboutthereport

TheExperian/OxfordEconomics’MainStreetReportbringsdeepinsightintotheoverallfinancialwell-beingofthesmall-businesslandscape,aswellasprovidingcommentaryaroundwhatspecifictrendsmeanforcreditgrantorsandthesmall-businesscommunity.CriticalfactorsintheMainStreetReportincludeacombinationofbusinesscreditdata(creditbalances,delinquencyrates,utilizationrates,etc.)andmacroeconomicinformation

(employmentrates,income,retailsales,industrialproduction,etc.).

AboutExperian’sBusinessInformationServices

Experian’sBusinessInformationServicesisaleaderinprovidingdataandpredictiveinsightstoorganizations,helpingthemmitigateriskand

improveprofitability.Thecompany’sbusinessdatabaseprovidescomprehensive,third-party-verifiedinformationon99.9percentofallU.S.

companies.Experianprovidesmarket-leadingtoolsthatassistclientsofallsizesinmakingreal-timedecisions,processingnewapplications,

managingcustomerrelationshipsandcollectingondelinquentaccounts.FormoreinformationaboutExperian’sadvancedbusiness-to-businessproductsandservices,visit/b2b.

AboutOxfordEconomics

OxfordEconomicsisatrustedadvisertocorporate,financial,andgovernmentdecision-makersandthoughtleaders.Theirworldwideclientbase

comprisesover2,000internationalorganizations,includingleadingmultinationalcompaniesandfinancialinstitutions;keygovernmentbodiesand

tradeassociations;andtopuniversities,consultancies,andthinktanks.Theirinsightsintotheglobaleconomicandbusinessenvironmenthelpsclientscutthroughmarketcomplexityanduncertaintyandbuildasolidbasefordecision-making.Theyofferasophisticatedportfolioofsubscriptionservices,providinginsightsandforecaststhataredeliveredthroughreportsandanalyticalpieces,databases,andrigorousmodelson200+countries,100

i