考研英語閱讀模擬227

［模擬］考研英語閱讀模擬227

多項選擇

AgathaChristiewouldnothavegonenearTheMysteryoftheMissing

SolarNeutrinos,butthepuzzlerhasheldscientistsinraptfrustration

formorethan30years.Finally,theirdoggednessappearstohavepaidoff.

Acceptedtheorysaysthesun'score,heatingitselfbyatomic

fusion,shouldspewintospacevastnumbersofminusculeparticlescalled

electronneutrinos.Mostoftheseghostlyparticlestravelbillionsof

light-years,evenstraightthroughstars,withouthittinga

thing.Measuringthemisobviouslydifficult,buteverydetectoruntilnow

hasconsistentlyfoundhalf(orfewer)ofthattheorywould

predict.Physicistsbegantodoubttheirconceptaboutwhystarsshine.

Lastweek,after14monthsmeasuringfaintflashesofbluelight

fromneutrinosandotherparticlesstreamingthroughadetector6800feet

downinanOntarionickelmine,178scientistsfromCanada,theUnited

States,andBritainannouncedthattheyhavesolvedtheconundrum.Nothing

iswrongwithmodelsofthesun,saysprojectdirectorArthurMcDonaldof

Queen，sUniversityinKingston,Ont.Theneutrinosarerightwherethey

shouldbe.Somearejustindisguise.Theinstrumentfoundelectron

neutrinosmixedinwithothers,evenharder-to-detect“flavors”of

neutrinos.SowhilesomemaychangeidentityonthewaytoEarth,thegrand

totalisjustright.

NobodygreetedtheresultsmorejoyouslythanphysicistJohn

BahcalloftheInstituteforAdvancedStudyinPrinceton,N.J.Intheearly

1960s,hecalculatedhowmanyneutrinosthesun，sfurnaceshouldsend

throughEarth.It'salot:About5millionpassharmlesslythrougha

fingernail-sizeareaeverysecond.In1968,thefirstneutrinodetector

一locateddeepintheHomestakeGoldMineinSouthDakota一foundthe

discrepancy.Bahcallrecallsitasthemostembarrassingmomentofhis

professionallife.

Lastweek，sdiscoverysolvesonemysterybutraisesraises

others.Nobodyissureexactlywhyneutrinoschangetheiridentity.The

overarchingstandardmodelofphysicssaysneutrinoshavenomass；the

newresultssuggesttheymusthaveatleastatinybitofheft.

TheworkleavesAmericanscientistsdeeplyenviousofthe

Canadianlaboratory.Japan,RussiaandItalyalsohavefirst-rate

undergroundlabsshieldedfromordinarycosmicraysandsuitedfor

studyingneutrinos.AconsortiumofU.S.universitiesappliedtofederal

agenciesearlythismonthtoconstructa$200millionlaboratorymore

than7400feetdowninthenowidleHomestakeMine,deeperthananyother

country，ssetup.

i

neutrino(n.)微中子puzzler(n.)難題

consortium(n.)社團，協(xié)會，聯(lián)盟

doggedness(n.)頑固，固執(zhí)minuscule(adj.)微小的nickel

mine鍥礦

conundrum(n.)難題discrepancy".)差異，矛盾overarch

(v.)形成拱型

heft(n.)分量，重量cosmicrays宇宙射線

raptfrustration全神貫注的、完全的受挫

第1題：

Whatdoestheword“puzzler”(Line2,Para.1)referto?

A.peoplewhoarepuzzled

B.scientistswhoarepuzzled

C.AgathaChristie

D.TheMysteryoftheMissingSolarNeutrinos

參考答案：D

答案解析：

本文主要介紹了失蹤的太陽微中子之謎。第一段：失蹤的太陽微中子之謎在困

擾科學家多年后被發(fā)現(xiàn)。第二段：傳統(tǒng)理論對太陽核心粒子移動的解釋。第三

段：科學家們宣布的新發(fā)現(xiàn)。第四段：物理學家JohnBahcall對這一結(jié)果感到

非常高興。第五段：人們還不清楚為什么微中子會改變其特性。第六段：美國

人希望建立最好的實驗室進行進一步的研究。[D]推斷題。從第一段可

以堆斷出“難題”指的是失蹤的太陽微中子之謎。

第2題：

Accordingtosometheorists,howmanyelectronneutrinosshouldbe

detected?

A.abouttwicethenumberthedetectorsfound

B.alittlebitmorethanthedetectorsfound

C.fewerthanthenumberthedetectorsfound

D.exactlythesamenumberasthedetectorsfound

參考答案：A

答案解析：

[A]細節(jié)題。見第二段第三句“測量它們顯然很困難，到目前為止，每種探測器

只找了理論預測上的一半甚至不到一半的量?！?/p>

第3題：

Whathappenedlastweekaccordingtothepassage?

A.Scientistsmeasuredfaintflashesofbluelightfromneutrinosand

2

otherparticles.

B.Britainscientistsannouncedthattheyhavesolvedtheconundrum.

C.178scientistsannouncedthattheyhavesalvedtheconundrum.

D.Neutrinosandotherparticlesstreamedthroughadetector6800feet

down.

參考答案：c

答案解析：

[C]細節(jié)題。見第三段第一句“上周，在一家安大略銀礦，在進行了長達14個

月對藍光微中子的微光和能夠通過深測器穿透6800英尺以下深度的粒子的測量

后，來自加拿大、美國和英國的178名科學家宣布他們已經(jīng)解決了這個難題。”

第4題:

WhichisNOTtrueaboutthelaboratorytheuniversitiesappliedto

construct?

A.Thelaboratorywillcostthem$200million.

B.Thelaboratorywillbeconstructed7400feetdown.

C.ThelaboratorywillbeconstructedwhereHomestakeMineisnow.

D.Thelaboratorywillalsobeanidleone.

參考答案：D

答案解析：

[D]細節(jié)題。見全文最后一句話.morethan7400feetdowninthenowidle

HomestakeMine”是指Homestake礦井至今仍閑置著。

第5題：

Whatisthepassagemainlyabout?

A.TheMysteryoftheMissingSolarNeutrinos.

B.Whystarsshine.

C.Whyneutrinoschangetheiridentity.

D.AgathaChristie，snovel.

參考答案：A

答案解析：

[A]主旨題。全文的主題是失蹤的太陽微中子之謎，參見文章精點。

Theimportanceandfocusoftheinterviewintheworkoftheprint

andbroadcastjournalistisreflectedinseveralbooksthathavebeen

writtenonthetopic.Mostofthesebooksaswellasseveral

chapters,mainlyin,butnotlimitedto,journalismandbroadcasting

handbooksandreportingtexts,stressthe“howto“aspectsofjournalistic

interviewingratherthantheconceptualaspectsoftheinterview,its

context,andimplications.Muchofthe^howto^materialisbasedonpersonal

experiencesandgeneralimpressions.Asweknow,injournalismasinother

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fields,muchcanbelearnedfromthesystematicstudyofprofessional

practice.Suchstudybringstogetherevidencefromwhichbroadgeneralized

principlescanbedeveloped.

Thereis,ashasbeensuggested,agrowingbodyofresearch

literatureinjournalismandbroadcasting,butverylittlesignificant

attentionhasbeendevotedtothestudyoftheinterviewitself.Onthe

otherhand,manygeneraltextsaswellasnumerousresearcharticleson

interviewinginfieldsotherthanjournalismhavebeenwritten.Manyof

thesebooksandarticlespresentthetheoreticalandempiricalaspects

oftheinterviewaswellasthetrainingofthe

interviewers.Unhappily,thisplentifulgeneralliteratureabut

interviewingpayslittleattentiontothejournalisticinterview.Thefact

thatthegeneralliteratureoninterviewingdoesnotdealwiththe

journalisticinterviewseemstobesurprisingfortworeasons.First,it

seemslikelythatmostpeopleinmodernWesternsocietiesaremore

familiar,atleastinapositivemanner,withjournalisticinterviewing

thanwithanyotherformofinterviewing.Mostofusareprobablysomewhat

familiarwiththeclinicalinterview,suchasthatconductedbyphysicians

andpsychologists.Inthesesituationstheprofessionalpersonor

interviewerisinterestedingettinginformationnecessaryforthe

diagnosisandtreatmentofthepersonseekinghelp.Anotherfamiliar

situationisthejobinterview.However,veryfewofushaveactuallybeen

interviewedpersonallybythemassmedia,particularlybytelevision.And

yet,wehaveavividacquaintancewiththejournalistinterviewbyvirtue

ofourrolesasreaders,listeners,andviewers.Evenso,trueunderstanding

ofthejournalisticinterview,especiallytelevisioninterviews,requires

thoughtfulanalysesandevenstudy,asthisbookindicates.

conceptual(adj.)抽象的implication(n.)意義by

virtueof通過

literature(n.)文獻numerous(adj.)大量的

otherthan除了…(還有)

somewhat(adv.)有點clinical(adj.)診療的

physician(n.)內(nèi)科醫(yī)生

psychologist(n.)心理醫(yī)生massmedia大眾媒體

acquaintance(n.)熟悉

第6題：

Themainideaofthefirstparagraphisthat.

A.generalizedprinciplesforjournalisticinterviewsarethechief

concernforwritersonjournalism

B.importanceshouldbeattachedtothesystematicstudyof

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journalisticinterviewing

C.conceptsandcontextualimplicationsareofsecondaryimportance

tojournalisticinterviewing

D.personalexperiencesandgeneralimpressionsshouldbeexcluded

fromjournalisticinterviews

參考答案：B

答案解析：

這是一本書的序言，作者分析了人們對新聞采訪理論研究的忽視，強調(diào)人們應該

注重新聞采訪，尤其是電視采訪。第一段：新聞采訪工作不僅需要學習其具體

步驟，還要進行系統(tǒng)的理論研究。第二段：關(guān)于采訪的通用文獻很多，人們卻

不太關(guān)注新聞采訪本身。這其中有兩個原因：其一，人們對新聞采訪更了解而不

太熟悉其他形式的采訪。其二，我們對新聞采訪中聽眾的角色熟悉，卻不經(jīng)常上

電視親自接受采訪。本文作者認為應該深入了解新聞采訪。［B］推斷題。

根據(jù)第一段的大意，我們可以判斷［B］應該注重新聞采訪的系統(tǒng)研究是對的。［A］

從新聞采訪中概括出一些原理是新聞方面的作家主要關(guān)心的問題。這與目前的狀

況相反，因而錯誤。［C］概念和上下文含義對新聞采訪來說不重要。而作者在文

章后半部分推翻了此說法，因而也是錯誤的；［D］個人經(jīng)驗和大體印象不應該包

括在新聞采訪之內(nèi)。這點文中沒有提及。

第7題：

Muchresearchhasbeendoneoninterviewsingeneral.

A.sothetrainingofjournalistinterviewershaslikewisebeen

strengthened

B.thoughthestudyoftheinterviewingtechniqueshasn，treceivedmuch

attention

C.butjournalisticinterviewingasaspecificfieldhasunfortunately

beenneglected

D.andtherehasalsobeenadramaticgrowthinthestudyof

journalisticinterviewing

參考答案：C

答案解析：

［C］細節(jié)題。第二段的第一句和第四句都指出，關(guān)于采訪的通用文獻很多，人們

卻不太關(guān)注新聞采訪本身。因此［C］正確。［A］對新聞采訪者的培訓相應的增加了。

這點文章沒有提及；［B］中interviewing的前面應加上journalistic才對；［D］

錯在dramaticgrowth——詞。

第8題：

Westernerstarefamiliarwiththejournalisticinterview,.

A.butmostofthemwishtostayfromit

B.andmanyofthemhopetobeinterviewedsomeday

C.andmanyofthemwouldliketoacquireatrueunderstandingofit

D.butmostofthemmaynothavebeeninterviewedinperson

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參考答案：D

答案解析：

[D]細節(jié)題。這句話的答案在第二段第十句：我們很少有人被媒體—特別是

電視——親自采訪過。[A]的意思為：我們大都希望避而遠之，與內(nèi)容不符。

第9題：

Whoistheintervieweeinaclinicalinterview?

A.Thepatient.

B.Thephysician.

C.Thejournalist.

D.Thepsychologist.

參考答案：A

答案解析：

[A]細節(jié)題。第二段的第八、九句話告訴我們，該句的interview是指醫(yī)生與病

人的談話，因此這里的interviewee是指病人。

第10題：

Thepassageismostlikelyapartof.

A.anewsarticle

B.aresearchreport

C.ajournalisticinterview

D.apreface

參考答案：D

答案解析：

[D]推斷題。這個答案在文章的最后一句話：雖然如此，要想達到對新聞采訪

—特別是電視采訪——的真正理解，需要深入分析，乃至研究，正如這本書

所說的那樣。這說明本文應是一篇序言。

Forthemajorityofproducers,however,neithermakingdirectcontact

withallpossibleconsumers,norestablishingtheirownchainofselling

pointswillbe[viable]options.Forthem,therequirementtousethe

facilitiesoftheexistingdistributionsystemtogettheirproducts

throughtotheultimateconsumerwhilekeepingthemaximumofprofitfor

themselves.Asageneralrule,theexistingmarket,canspreadits

overheadsoverthemultitudeofproductswhichithandlesandtherefore

shouldbeabletoprovidedistributionforanyoneproductmorecheaply

thanitwouldcosttoprovideuniqueservicesforthatproductalone.The

questionis,cantheexistingmarketprovidetheknow-hownecessaryto

getthisparticularproductthroughitspotentialconsumers,intermsof

understandingit,beingabletoexplainit,recommendingitorinstalling

itcorrectly?Inshort,howeverinexpensivethemarketsystemmaybe,is

6

itcosteffectiveforthepurpose?

Theanswerislikelytobethatveryfewproducerswillfind

themselvesabletomakeabsolutelyallthesalestheywanttomakedirectly

totheactualconsumersineverycase.Verymanyproducers,especially

ofgoodsfordomesticconsumption,willhavenodirectcontactwiththeir

publicatall:Thosewhocanadvantageouslydealdirectlywithsome

proportionoftheiruserswillneverthelessfinditworthwhiletousethe

markettoreachcertainotherclassesofuser,whoareeithertoosmall

ortoodistantortooundemandingtojustifycontactingdirectly.The

manufacturerofindustrialsupplieswilltypicallyselldirectlytohis

majorusercustomers,eachofwhomwilldemandpersonalattentionand,

nodoubt,thekeenestprices,whileprovidingavolumeofbusinessthat

justifiesthecost.Butthereisnearlyalwaysaninterestingvolumeof

additionalsalestobemadetosomeothersectorofusers,whichcannot

beobtainedeconomicallydirectly,butwhichtradedistributionis

adequatetosupply.Acrossthewholerangeofalternatives,nearlyevery

producerfindsitnecessarytomakesomeuseofthetradedistribution

system.

注釋

viable可行的option自由選擇

facility設備、便利multitude大批、大

群

overheads經(jīng)常性支出、管理費用install安置、安裝

consumption消耗、消費keen熱心的、渴望的

adequate足夠的、適當?shù)腶lternative選擇余地

第11題：

Thepassageismainlyabout.

A.thefactthatit'shardtoselldirectly

B.theadvantagesofthetradedistributionsystem

C.awayofdistribution

D.howtogetthemaximumofprofit

參考答案：c

答案解析：

C縱覽全文，可見本文介紹的是一種銷售方式“usingtheexisting

distributionsystems”,通過與其他方式做比較來說明其優(yōu)點，也是為了證明

這種銷售方式的可行性。因此C.awayofdistribution為正確答案。

第12題:

WhichisNOTthereasonthatproducerswhocandealdirectlywithsome

7

consumersstillusetheexistingdistributionsystem?

A.Othergroupsofcustomersaretoolargetocontactwithdirectly.

B.Therearemanycustomerswhoareusedtodoso.

C.Somecustomersaresoeasytosatisfythattheyr)eedn，ttobedealt

withdirectly.

D.Thatwillbringthemmoreprofit.

參考答案：A

答案解析：

A文中第二段有這樣一句話“Thosewhocanadvantageouslydealdirectlywith

someproportionoftheiruserswillneverthlessfinditworthwhiletouse

themarkettoreachcertainotherclassesofuser,whoareeithertoosmall

ortoodistantortooundemandingtojustifycontactingdrect.”選項B

與C的意思被包含在內(nèi)，而D是顯然的。對于A中的原因，文中并未提到。

第13題:

Themostimportantadvantageofusingtheexistingdistributionsystem

isthat.

A.itcanreducethepriceoftheproducts.

B.itcoststheproducerslessthanusingotherways.

C.itcoversalargernumbertocustomers.

D.itmakestheconsumersunderstandtheproductsbetter.

參考答案：B

答案解析：

B根據(jù)第——段中“Asageneralrule,theexistingmarket...andtherefore

shouldbeabletoprovidedistributionforanyoneproductmorecheaply

thanitwouldcosttoprovideuniqueservicesforthatproductalone.”

及文中其他表述可知銷售成本低是這種方式的主要特點。A與D都是由成本低導

致的，而D是直接銷售的特點。

第14題：

Wecanguessthattheunderlinedword“viable“inthefirstparagraphmay

mean.

A.beneficial

B.necessary

C.useful

D.practical

參考答案：D

答案解析：

D本文主要講的是，由于種種原因，與消費者直接接觸以及建立自己的銷售鏈對

多數(shù)生產(chǎn)者來說不太現(xiàn)實，因此利用現(xiàn)有的銷售體系才成為較普遍的方式，所以

本題中選項Dpractical才是合適的答案，文中沒有討論哪種更為有用或獲利更

8

多的問題。

第15題：

Allofthefollowingstatementsaretrueexcept.

A.producersofdomesticconsumptionoftenusethefacilitiesofthe

existingdistributionsystem

B.usuallytheproducersofindustrialsupplieswillspendmoreon

distribution

C.thetradedistributionsystemisusefultosomeproducersbutis

unnecessarytoothers

D.theexistingmarketsystemmaybelessexpensive

參考答案：C

答案解析：

C從“verymanyproducers,especiallyofgoodsfordomesticconsumption,

willhavenodirectcontactwiththeirpublicatall.”可推出選項A的

結(jié)論。工業(yè)供應品的制造者由于主要采用向用戶直接銷售的方式，必然銷售成本

較高，因此B正確；D在原文中較明顯；由本文最后一句可否定選項C。

Manysystemscanbedeliberatelyfooled.AnewstudyfromYokohama

NationalUniversityinJapanshowsthatphonyfingersconcoctedfrom

gelatin（膠），calledugummydummies,“easilytrickfingerprintsystems.

Manufacturersofsomesystemsclaimtoguardagainstsuchtacticsby

recordingpupildilation（瞳孔擴張），bloodflowinfingers,andother

evidencethatthebiometricsampleis"live."Andalthoughsomemakers

assertthatbiometricssolvestheproblemofidentitytheft-noonecan

stealyouriris（虹月英）orhand,afterall-manyexpertsdisagree.Ahacker

whobrokeintoapoorlydesignedsystemmightbeabletostealother

people，sdigitalbiometrictemplatesandusethemtoaccesssecure

networks.Thistrick,called^replay,couldtakeidentitythefttoawhole

newlevel."Your,fingerprintisuniquelyyours,forever.Ifit's

compromised,youcan，tgetanewone,“saysJackieFenn,atechnology

analystattheGartnerGroup.

Privacyconcerns-althoughtheyseemlesspressingtomany

thesedays-mayalsoslowpublicacceptanceofthetechnology.Yetin

somecases,biometricscanactuallyenhanceprivacy.Afinger-scansystem

forcontrollingaccesstomedicalrecords,forexemple,wouldalsocollect

anaudittrailofpeoplewhoviewedthedata.Butfacescanning,withits

potentialforidentifyingpeoplewithouttheirknowledge,hasalarmed

privacyadvocates.

Lastmonth,forexample,VisionicsCorp，sface-scanningsystem

wasredeployedasananticrimemeasureinaTampa,Fla.,entertainment

district.DetectiveBillToddsaysthesystemhadbeentakendowntwo

monthsintoits12-monthtrialbecauseofabug（故障）intheoperating

9

system,butithasbeenupgradedandisnowbackinuse.The36-camera

systemiscontrolledbyanofficeratthestation,whocanpan,tilt,and

zoomthecamerastoscanfacesinthecrowdsothatthesoftwarecancompare

themwithfacesinadatabase.

WhileToddsaysthedatabasecontainsonlyphotographsofwanted

felons,runaways,andsexualpredators,policedepartmentpolicyallows

anyonewhohasacriminalrecordormightprovide“valuable

intelligence,“suchasgangmembers,tobeincluded.Sofar,according

toareportbytheAmericanCivilLibertiesUnion,thetechnologyhas

producedmanyfalsematchesandTodldconfirmsthatithasn，tidentified

anycriminals,“wehaveourlimitactions,saysFrancesZelazny,

spokespersonforVisionics."It'sanenhancementtolawenforcement,not

areplacement.”

Attimes,theprivacyproblemismorepeceptablethanreality.

TheLowerMerionschooldistrictnearPhiladelphiahadinstalledfinger

一scandevicesforschoollunchlines.Studentswouldplacetheirfingers

onapadtoverifytheiridentity,andmoneywouldbedeductedfromtheir

account.Theoptionalprogramwasinstitutedtomakelinesmovefaster,

andtospareembarrassmenttostudentsentitledtofreeordiscounted

meals.Buteventhoughthesystemdidnotcaptureafullfingerprintimage,

butratherastripped-downdigitalversion,someparentsfeltthatit

cameuncomfortablyclosetotraditionalfingerprinting.Afteraspateof

badpress,theprogramwaskilledlastyear.Fortyotherschooldistricts

stillusethesystem.

注釋

phony偽造的tilt使傾斜

gummy樹膠質(zhì)的zoom調(diào)整鏡頭使影像擴大

dummy人像模型，冒充貨felon罪犯

tactics策略predator掠奪者,食肉

動物

biometric生物測定學的gang一群（囚犯）一幫（歹徒）

template樣板,模板intelligence新聞,情報

compromise使遭受損害perception感覺，知覺

audit稽核，檢查pad墊狀物

trail痕跡，小徑optional非強制性的

upgrade改進，提高

第16題:

Thepassagemainlydealswith.

A.gummydummies

B.howtoidentifyaperson

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C.theface-scanningsystems

D.theproblemsofbiometrics

參考答案：D

答案解析：

D本文第一段與最后一段主要講的是指紋檢測技術(shù)的問題，其他幾段講的是面孔

辨認系統(tǒng)的不完善之處，因此整篇文章講的是目前生物測定學中的問題。

第17題：

Whichofthefollowingisnottrueaccordingtothefirstparagraph?

A.Sometimesthefingerprintsystemscan，tdistinguishthe“gummy

dummies”andtherealfingers.

B.Biometricscan，tsolvetheproblemofidentitytheftaccordingto

someexperts.

C.Manyexpertsdisagreethatnoonecanstealyouririsorhand.

D.Abackermayeasilyuseother，sidentity.

參考答案：C

答案解析：

C選項A可以“phonyfingersconcoctedfromgelatin,called'gummydummies’,

easilytrickfingerprintsystems”看出。文中指出“noonecanstealyour

irisorhand”這是一個事實，而許多專家不同意的只是"biometricssolvesthe

problemofidentitytheft”,因此B正確，而選項C是錯誤的。

第18題：

“Thetechnologyinthesecondparagraphrefersto.

A.fingerprintsystems

B.biometrics

C.face-scanningsystems

D.gummydummies

參考答案：B

答案解析：

B第一段從指紋檢測系統(tǒng)入手，提出了生物測定學中的問題。而且在下一句中，

作者又接著說“Yetinsomecases,biometricscanactuallyenhanceprivacy

可見這里的“thetechnologyv就是指^biometrics.

第19題：

WhichofthefollowingexpressionsabouttheVisionicsCorp，sface-

scanningsystemisnottrue?

A.Ithasbeenimproved.

B.Thedatabaseofthesystemcontainsparagraphsofalimitedamount

ofpeople.

C.Ithasbeenwidelyusedinentertainmentdistricts.

11

D.Itcan，treplacethelawenforcement.

參考答案：C

答案解析：

C選項A、B、D都可以從文章第三，第四段找到或推出，文中表明這一系統(tǒng)只是

在試用期，因此C不正確。

第20題：

Byusingthefinger-scandevicesforschoollunchlines,.

A.theschoollunchlinescanmovefaster

B.Thosewhoneedn，tpayfortheirmealsnolongergetembarrassed

C.Someparentsfeeluncomfortableaboutthedevues

D.Thefingerprintimagesofthestudentsarerecorded

參考答案：D

答案解析：

D由最后一段中“Buteventhoughthesystemdidn，tcaptureafull

fingerprintimage,butratherastripped-downdigitalversion...“口J

知選項D是正確的。

Onebyone,economiesaroundtheworldarestumbling.Bycutting

interestratesagainthisweek-fortheseventhtimethisyear-the

FederalReservehopesitcankeepAmericaoutofrecession.Butinan

increasingnumberofeconomies,fromJapantoTaiwantoMexicoandBrazil,

GDPinalreadyshrinking.Globalindustrialproductionfellatanannual

rateof6percentinthefirsthalfof2001.Earlyestimatessuggestthat

grossworldproduct,asawhole,mayhavecontractedinthesecondquarter,

forpossiblythefirsttimeintwodecades.Welcometothefirstglobal

recessionofthe21stcentury.

Sofar,Americaitselfhasescapedatechnicalrecession,

definedastwoquartersoffalling

GDP.ButonAugust29revisedfiguresareexpectedtoshowthat

America'sGDPgrowthinthesecondquarterwasclosetozerooreven

negative,ratherthanthe0.7percentannualrateoriginallyannounced.

WithGDPgrowingwellbelowtrendforseveralquarters,profitstumbling

andunemploymentrising,itnowsmellshorriblylikearecession.

Earlierthisyear,when[Americafirstsneezed,]theEuropean

CentralBank(alongwithmostprivate-sectoreconomists)arguedthatthe

euroareawasinsulatedfromAmerica，sslowdownandhadlittletoworry

about.Thisseemstohavebeenwrong.InGermanytherearefearsabout

recessionasbusinessinvestmentandretailsalestumble.Recentfigures

confirmedthatGermany，sGDPstagnatedinthesecondquarter.Italy，sGDP

fellinthesecondquarter,andalthoughgrowthhasheldupbetterin

FranceandSpain,thegrowthintheeuroareaasawholewasclosetozero

12

inthequarter.Nobodyisforecastinganactualrecessionintheeuroarea

thisyear,butitisnolongerexpectedtoprovideanengineforworld

growth.

AsforJapan,itisprobablyalreadyinrecession.Japan'sGDP

grewslightlyinthefirstquarter.GoldmanSachsreckonsthatfigures

couldshowthatGDPfellatanannualrateofasmuchas6percentinthe

secondquarter,andthecontractionhasalmostcertainlycontinuedinto

thesecondhalfoftheyear.Persistentdeflationcontinuestobeasevere

problem.ArevisedmeasureofJapan，sconsumerpriceindex,tobe

publishedsoon,islikelytoshowthatdeflationisworsethanwhathad

beenthought.BankofJapananno