聚酯投資策略月報(bào)：成本推動(dòng)行情需求邊際貢獻(xiàn)有限-20240304-中財(cái)期貨

成本推動(dòng)行情，需求邊際貢獻(xiàn)有限成本推動(dòng)行情，需求邊際貢獻(xiàn)有限投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格上海市浦東新區(qū)陸家嘴環(huán)路 敬請(qǐng)參閱最后一頁(yè)之特別聲明3300025002000150010005000-50012001000800600300025002000150010005000-500120010008006004002000-200-400-6001/11/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/12019202020212022202320241/11/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/12019202020212022202320243.2春季檢修略不足，TA上行的驅(qū)動(dòng)或在調(diào)油或者成本端959085807570656055501/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/12019202020212022202320241601401201008060402001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1201920202021202220232024 敬請(qǐng)參閱最后一頁(yè)之特別聲明45000-500-1000-1500-2000-2500-3000-3500-4000-45001400120010008006004002005000-500-1000-1500-2000-2500-3000-3500-4000-45001400120010008006004002000-200-40010987654320111098765431/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/12019202020212022202320241/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/120202021202220232024四、MEG基本面2000180016001400200018001600140012001600140090008000120070001000800100080060040020005000100040008003000600200010000100002000動(dòng)力煤(Q5500)：黃驊港平倉(cāng)價(jià)甲醇：華東乙二醇：華東乙烯：CFR東北亞動(dòng)力煤(Q5500)：寧波港庫(kù)提價(jià)動(dòng)力煤(Q5500)：黃驊港平倉(cāng)價(jià)內(nèi)盤乙烯制利潤(rùn)煤制利潤(rùn)甲醇制利潤(rùn)外盤乙烯制利潤(rùn)石腦油制利潤(rùn)100500-50-100-150-200-250-300-350-4001/11/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1201920202021202220232024 敬請(qǐng)參閱最后一頁(yè)之特別聲明54.2海內(nèi)外供給重回縮量預(yù)期7570656055504540353080757065605550454035301/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1202020212022202320241/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/120202021202220232024706050403020100454030201551/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1202020212022202320241/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1202020212022202320244.3海外需求復(fù)蘇疊加重啟推遲，港口去庫(kù)或?qū)⒊掷m(xù)助推價(jià)格上行的動(dòng)能邊際遞減，但絕對(duì)低庫(kù)水平仍 敬請(qǐng)參閱最后一頁(yè)之特別聲明61601401201008060402001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1201920202021202220232024五、下游提負(fù)不及預(yù)期，季節(jié)旺季來(lái)臨邊際支撐有限有限。2000150010005000(500)(1000)1/33/35/37/39/311/31/33/35/37/39/311/31/3切片利潤(rùn)瓶片利潤(rùn)POY利潤(rùn)DTY利潤(rùn)FDY利潤(rùn)短纖利潤(rùn) 敬請(qǐng)參閱最后一頁(yè)之特別聲明71/12/13/11/12/13/1六、聚酯產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈價(jià)格變動(dòng)匯總 敬請(qǐng)參閱最后一頁(yè)之特別聲明8PX\PTA類別單位2024/3/12024/2/1漲跌值漲跌幅價(jià)格Brent原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)（FOB歐洲）美元/桶84.5782.20+2.37+2.88%石腦油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)（CFR日本）美元/噸687.50662.75+24.75+3.73%MX現(xiàn)貨價(jià)（CFR中國(guó)臺(tái)灣）美元/噸958.50944.50+14.00+1.48%PX現(xiàn)貨價(jià)（CFR中國(guó)）美元/噸1036.671019.33+17.34+1.70%PX現(xiàn)貨價(jià)（中國(guó)）元/噸8356.008197.00+159.00+1.94%PX期貨主力收盤價(jià)元/噸8562.008462.00+100.00+1.18%PX01合約收盤價(jià)元/噸————————PX05合約收盤價(jià)元/噸8562.008462.00+100.00+1.18%PX09合約收盤價(jià)元/噸8528.008388.00+140.00+1.67%PTA現(xiàn)貨價(jià)（CFR中國(guó)）美元/噸765.00764.00+1.00+0.13%PTA現(xiàn)貨價(jià)（中國(guó)）元/噸5890.005910.00也-20.00也-0.34%PTA期貨主力收盤價(jià)元/噸5908.005878.00+30.00+0.51%PTA01合約收盤價(jià)元/噸5818.005734.00+84.00+1.46%PTA05合約收盤價(jià)元/噸5908.005878.00+30.00+0.51%PTA09合約收盤價(jià)元/噸5856.005780.00+76.00+1.31%價(jià)差石腦油-布油美元/噸65.9158.58+7.33+12.51%MXN（MX-石腦油）美元/噸271.00281.75-10.75也-3.82%PXN（PX-石腦油）美元/噸349.17356.58也-7.41也-2.08%PTA現(xiàn)貨加工費(fèi)元/噸256.19382.20-126.01也-32.97%PTA01盤面加工費(fèi)元/噸————————PTA05盤面加工費(fèi)元/噸299.89335.39-35.50也-10.58%PTA09盤面加工費(fèi)元/噸270.16285.86也-15.70也-5.49%基差PX主力基差元/噸-206.00-265.00+59.00+22.26%PX01基差元/噸————————PX05基差元/噸-206.00-265.00+59.00+22.26%PX09基差元/噸-172.00-191.00+19.00+9.95%PTA主力基差元/噸-18.0032.00也-50.00也-156.25%PTA01基差元/噸72.00176.00也-104.00也-59.09%PTA05基差元/噸-18.0032.00也-50.00也-156.25%PTA09基差元/噸34.00130.00也-96.00也-73.85%月差PX1-5價(jià)差元/噸————————PX5-9價(jià)差元/噸34.0074.00也-40.00也-54.05%PX9-1價(jià)差元/噸————————PTA1-5價(jià)差元/噸-90.00-144.00+54.00+37.50%PTA5-9價(jià)差元/噸52.0098.00也-46.00也-46.94%PTA9-1價(jià)差元/噸38.0046.00-8.00也-17.39%倉(cāng)單/持倉(cāng)量PX總倉(cāng)單數(shù)量萬(wàn)噸————————PX總持倉(cāng)數(shù)量萬(wàn)手13.8811.04+2.84+25.78%PX主力合約持倉(cāng)數(shù)量萬(wàn)手9.668.75+0.92+10.50%PTA總倉(cāng)單數(shù)量萬(wàn)噸28.4112.64+15.78+124.84%PTA總持倉(cāng)數(shù)量萬(wàn)手134.33164.85也-30.52也-18.52%PTA主力合約持倉(cāng)數(shù)量萬(wàn)手98.78120.83-22.05也-18.25%MEG類別單位2024/3/12024/2/1漲跌值漲跌幅價(jià)格動(dòng)力煤（黃驊港Q5500）元/噸931.00917.00+14.00+1.53%乙烯（CFR東北亞）美元/噸951.00941.00+10.00+1.06%環(huán)氧乙烷國(guó)內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨價(jià)元/噸6700.006600.00+100.00+1.52%甲醇市場(chǎng)價(jià)（華東）元/噸2770.002645.00+125.00+4.73%MEG市場(chǎng)價(jià)（華東）元/噸4586.004718.00也-132.00也-2.80%MEG內(nèi)盤（CCFEI）元/噸4580.004700.00-120.00也-2.55%MEG外盤（CCFEI）美元/噸535.00553.00也-18.00也-3.25%MEG期貨主力收盤價(jià)元/噸4622.004703.00-81.00也-1.72%MEG01合約收盤價(jià)元/噸4610.004647.00也-37.0