2018低工資增長(zhǎng)調(diào)查英文

每日免費(fèi)每日免費(fèi)獲取報(bào)關(guān)注回復(fù)：研究加入“起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)”微信群。AtAtaThefederalminimumwageis$7.25perhourformostworkers.TheCongressionalBudgetOfficeexaminedhowincreasingthefederalminimumwageto$10,$12,or$15perhourby2025wouldaffectemploymentandfamilyincome.Inanaverageweekin2025,the$15optionwouldboostthewagesof17millionworkerswhowouldotherwiseearnlessthan$15perhour.Another10millionworkersotherwiseearningslightlymorethan$15perhourmightseetheirwagesriseaswell.But1.3millionotherworkerswouldbecomejobless,accordingtoCBO’smedianestimate.Thereisatwo-thirdschancethatthechangeinemploymentwouldbebetweenaboutzeroandadecreaseof3.7millionworkers.Thenumberofpeoplewithannualincomebelowthepovertythresholdin2025wouldfallby1.3million.The$12optionwouldhavesmallereffects.Inanaverageweekin2025,itwouldincreasewagesfor5millionworkerswhowouldotherwiseearnlessthan$12perhour.Another6millionworkersotherwiseearningslightlymorethan$12perhourmightseetheirwagesriseaswell.Buttheoptionwouldcause0.3millionotherworkerstobejobless.Thereisatwo-thirdschancethatthechangeinemploymentwouldbebetweenaboutzeroandadecreaseof0.8millionworkers.Thenumberofpeoplewithannualincomebelowthepovertythresholdin2025wouldfallby0.4million.The$10optionwouldhavestillsmallereffects.Itwouldraisewages1.5millionworkerswhowouldotherwiseearnlessthan$10perhour.Another2millionworkerswhowouldotherwiseearnslightlymorethan$10perhourmightseetheirwagesriseaswell.Theoptionwouldhavelittleeffectonemploymentinanaverageweekin2025.Thereisatwo-thirdschancethatthechangeinemploymentwouldbebetweenaboutzeroandadecreaseof0.1millionworkers.Thisoptionwouldhavenegligibleeffectsonthenumberofpeopleinpoverty.Thetwomainsourcesofuncertaintyaboutthechangesinemploymentareuncertaintyaboutwagegrowthundercurrentlawanduncertaintyabouttheresponsivenessofemploymenttoawageincrease.WhatOptionsforIncreasingtheFederalMinimumWageDidCBOWhatOptionsforIncreasingtheFederalMinimumWageDidCBOExamine?WhatEffectsWouldtheOptionsHave?WhyAretheOutcomes1115TheCurrentFederalMinimum5ThreeOptionsforIncreasingtheFederalMinimumThe$15OptionThe$12OptionThe$105678HowIncreasesintheMinimumWageAffectEmploymentandFamily89EffectsoftheThreeOptionsonEmploymentandFamilyEffectsoftheOptionsonBOX1.HOWANINCREASEINTHEMINIMUMWAGEWOULDAFFECTTHEFEDERALBOX2.THEMINIMUMWAGEANDTHEEARNEDINCOMETAXUncertaintyAbouttheAppendixA:TheBasisforCBO’sAppendixB:ResearchAbouttheEffectsofMinimum-WageListofTablesandAboutThisNumbersinthetext,Numbersinthetext,tables,andfiguresmaynotadduptototalsbecauseofFederalminimumwagesareexpressedinnominal(current-year)dollars.Unlessotherwiseindicated,otherdollarvaluesareexpressedin2018dollars,adjustedtoremovetheeffectsofinflationusingthepriceindexforpersonalconsumptionexpenditurespublishedbytheBureauofEconomicAnalysis.ThedataunderlyingthefiguresinthisreportarepostedalongwiththereportonwebsiteTheEffectsonEmploymentandFamilyIncomeTheEffectsonEmploymentandFamilyIncomeofIncreasingtheFederalMinimumWageThefederalminimumwageof$7.25perhourhasnotchangedsince2009,thoughmanystatesandlocalitieshavesettheirminimumwageabovethatlevel.Increasingthefederalminimumwagewouldhavetwoprincipalearningsandfamilyincomewouldincrease,whichwouldliftsomefamiliesoutofpoverty.Butotherlow-wageworkerswouldbecomejobless,andtheirfamilyincomewouldfall—insomecases,belowthepovertythreshold.Ofthethreeoptions,the$15optionwouldhavethelargesteffectsonemploymentandfamilyincome(seeFigure1).Thatisbecauseitwouldincreasewagesforthemostworkers,becauseitwouldimposethelargestincreasesinwages,andbecause,inCBO’sestimation,employmentismoreresponsivetorelativelylargewageincreasesandincreasesthatwillbeadjustedforfuturewagegrowth.The$12optionwouldhavesmallereffects,andtheeffectsofthe$10optionwouldbesmallerstill.WhatOptionsforIncreasingtheFederalMinimumWageDidCBOExamine?forincreasingthefederalminimumwage.Thereisconsiderableuncertaintyaboutthesizeofanyoption’seffectonemployment.CBO’sestimatesarebasedonthemedianvaluesoflikelyrangesforwageinwages.Inparticular,thelikelyrangesfortherespon-sivenessparameterarenotsymmetric:Thatvaluehasanequalchanceofbeingsmallerorlargerthanthemedian,butifitislarger,itcouldbesubstantiallylarger.Thefirstoptionwouldraisethefederalminimumwageto$15perhourasofJanuary1,2025.ThatincreasewouldbeimplementedinsixannualincrementsstartingonJanuary1,2020.Afterreaching$15in2025,theminimumwagewouldbeindexed,ortied,tomedianhourlywages.The$15optionwouldalsograduallyeliminateexceptionstotheminimumwagefortippedworkers,teenageworkers,anddisabledworkers.Effectsofthe$15OptiononEmploymentandIncome.AccordingtoCBO’smedianestimate,underthe$15option,1.3millionworkerswhowouldotherwisebeemployedwouldbejoblessinanaverageweekin2025.(Thatwouldequala0.8percentreductioninthenumberofemployedworkers.)CBOestimatesthatthereisaboutatwo-thirdschancethatthechangeinemploymentwouldliebetweenaboutzeroandareductionof3.7mil-lionworkers(seeTable1).Thesecondoptionwouldraisethefederalminimumwageto$12perhourasofJanuary1,2025.The$12optionwouldbeimplementedonthesametimelineasthe$15optionbutwouldnotindextheminimumwagetowagegrowthafter2025.Itwouldleaveinplacecurrentexceptions.Inaddition,inanaverageweekin2025,the$15optionwouldincreasethewagesof17millionworkerswhosewageswouldotherwisebebelow$15perhour,CBOestimates.Thewagesofmanyofthe10millionworkerswhosewageswouldbeslightlyabovethenewfederalminimumwouldalsoincrease.Thethirdoptionwouldraisethefederalminimumwageto$10perhourasofJanuary1,2025.The$10optionwouldbeimplementedonthesametimelineasthe$15and$12options.Likethe$12option,itwouldnotindextheminimumwagetowagegrowthandwouldleaveinplacecurrentexceptions.2TheeffecTsonemymenandfamilyincomeofincreasingThefederalminimumJulyFigureEffectsofIncreasesintheFederalMinimumWageonEmploymentandFamily2TheeffecTsonemymenandfamilyincomeofincreasingThefederalminimumJulyFigureEffectsofIncreasesintheFederalMinimumWageonEmploymentandFamilyIncome,ChangeinEmploymentinanAveragePercentageChangeinAverageAnnualRealFamily6420MedianEstimate$15LikelyRange6420$126420$1001LessThan to1.49to1.99to2.99to5.99orMillionsofRatioofFamilyIncometothePovertySource:CongressionalBudgetOffice,usingmonthlyandannualdatafromtheCensusBureau’sCurrentPopulationTheoptionswouldraisetheminimumwageto$15,$12,and$10,respectively,insixstepsbetweenJanuary1,2020,andJanuary1,2025.Under$15option,theminimumwagewouldthenbeindexedtomedianhourlywages;underthe$12and$10options,itwouldChangesinreal(inflation-adjusted)incomereflectchangesinbefore-taxfamilycashincome.Thosechangesincludeincreasesinearningsforworkerswhowouldreceiveahigherwage,decreasesinearningsforworkerswhowouldbecomejobless,lossesinincomeforbusinessowners,anddecreasesinincomebecauseofincreasesinprices.ThedefinitionsofincomeandofpovertythresholdsarethoseusedbytheCensusBureautodeterminetheofficialpovertyrate.CBOprojectsthatin2025,thepovertythreshold(in2018dollars)willbe$20,480forafamilyofthreeand$26,330forafamilyoffour.MedianestimatesarecalculatedusingmedianvaluesoflikelyrangesforwagegrowthandtheresponsivenessofemploymenttochangesinInCBO’sassessment,thereisatwo-thirdschancethattheeffectwouldbewithinthis?The$15optionwouldaffectfamilyincomeinaofways.InCBO’sestimation,itReducethenation’soutputslightlythroughthereductioninemploymentandacorrespondingdeclineinthenation’sstockofcapital(suchasbuildings,machines,andtechnologies).?Boostworkers’earningsthroughhigherwages,byhigherratesofjoblessness;medianeffectonemployment,the$15optionwouldreducetotalreal(inflation-adjusted)familyincomein2025by$9billion,or0.1percent.1 1.Thatdollaramountandothersinthisreportareexpressedin2018dollars,unlessotherwiseindicated.?Reducebusinessincomeandraisepricesashigherlaborcostswereabsorbedbybusinessownersandthenpassedontoconsumers;andTheeffecTsonemymenandfamilyincomeofincreasingThefederalminimum JulyTableEffectsofIncreasesTheeffecTsonemymenandfamilyincomeofincreasingThefederalminimum JulyTableEffectsofIncreasesintheFederalMinimumWageonEmployment,Income,andPoverty,ChangeinEmploymentinanAverageWeek(MillionsofLikelyrangebLowendHighNumberofWorkersWhoCouldSeeIncreasesinTheirEarningsinanAverageWeek(Millions)DirectlyaffectedworkerscPotentiallyaffected--**-*-*-ChangeinRealAnnualBillionsof2018dollarsFamilieswithincomebetweenoneandthreetimesthepovertythresholdBillionsof2018dollarsFamilieswithincomebetweenthreeandsixtimesthepovertythresholdBillionsof2018dollarsFamilieswithincomemorethansixtimesthepovertythresholdBillionsof2018dollarsAllfamiliesBillionsof2018ChangeintheNumberofPeopleinPoverty*Source:CongressionalBudgetOffice,usingmonthlyandannualdatafromtheCensusBureau’sCurrentPopulationTheoptionswouldraisetheminimumwageto$15,$12,and$10,respectively,insixstepsbetweenJanuary1,2020,andJanuary1,2025.Under$15option,theminimumwagewouldthenbeindexedtomedianhourlywages;underthe$12and$10options,itwouldChangesinreal(inflation-adjusted)incomereflectchangesinbefore-taxfamilycashincome.Thosechangesincludeincreasesinearningsforworkerswhowouldreceiveahigherwage,decreasesinearningsforworkerswhowouldbecomejobless,lossesinincomeforbusinessowners,anddecreasesinincomebecauseofincreasesinprices.ThepercentagechangeintotalrealannualincomeshownhereisconsistentwithbutnotnecessarilyequaltothepercentagechangeinaverageThedefinitionsofincomeandofpovertythresholdsarethoseusedbytheCensusBureautodeterminetheofficialpovertyrate.CBOprojectsthatin2025,thepovertythreshold(in2018dollars)willbe$20,480forafamilyofthreeand$26,330forafamilyoffour.MedianestimatesarecalculatedusingmedianvaluesoflikelyrangesforwagegrowthandtheresponsivenessofemploymenttochangesinInCBO’sassessment,thereisatwo-thirdschancethattheeffectwouldbewithinthisDirectlyaffectedworkersarethosewhosehourlywage,intheabsenceofthechangeintheminimumwage,wouldrangefromjustbelowtheoldminimumtothenew,higherminimum.Allofthoseworkerswouldeitherbejoblessorseeincreasesintheirearningsinanaverageweek.Potentiallyaffectedworkersarethosewhosehourlywagesareabovetheproposedminimumwage—specifically,betweentheproposedminimumandthatamountplus50percentoftheincreaseintheirapplicableminimumwage.Onlysomeofthoseworkerswouldhaveincreasedearningsundertheoptions.Calculatedusingbefore-taxfamilycash4TheeffecTsonemymen4TheeffecTsonemymenandfamilyincomeofincreasingThefederalminimumJulyfamilies.Changesinearningswouldmainlyaffectlow-incomefamilies,butmanyhigher-incomefamilieswouldbeaffected,too.Thelossinbusinessincomewouldbemostlybornebyfamilieswellabovethepov-ertyline.Allconsumerswouldpayhigherprices,buthigher-incomefamilies,whospendmore,wouldpayeconomywouldgenerallyaccruetofamiliesinpropor-tiontotheirincome,whichmeanstheywouldlargelybeabsorbedbyfamilieswithincomewellabovethepovertyinadditionalrealincomeundertheoption.Theoptionwouldmove,onnet,about0.4millionpeopleoutofpoverty.Familiesabovethepovertylinewouldreceiveabout$3billionlessinrealincome,averysmallshareoftheirtotalincome.Effectsofthe$10OptiononEmploymentandIncome.AccordingtoCBO’smedianestimate,the$10optionwouldhavevirtuallynoeffectonemploymentinanaverageweekin2025.Thereisatwo-thirdschancethattheeffectonemploymentwouldliebetweenaboutzeroandadecreaseof0.1millionworkers.Inanaverageweekin2025,wagesfor1.5millionworkerswhowouldotherwisebepaidlessthan$10perhourwouldincrease,CBOestimates.Wageswouldalsoincreaseformanyofthe2millionadditionalworkerswhowouldotherwiseearnslightlymorethan$10perhourin2025.Takingthoseeffectsintoaccount,CBOestimatesthatfamilieswhoseincomewouldbebelowthepovertythresholdundercurrentlawwouldreceiveanadditional$8billioninrealfamilyincomein2025underthisoption.Thatwouldamounttoa5.3percentincreaseinincome,onaverage,forsuchfamilies.Thatextraincomewouldmove,onnet,roughly1.3millionpeopleoutofpoverty.Realincomewouldfallbyabout$16billionforfamiliesabovethepovertyline;thatwouldreducetheirtotalincomebyabout0.1percent.Realannualfamilyincomewouldagainbeaffectedbychangesinearnings,businessincome,andprices.Onbalance,the$10optionwouldreducerealfamilyincomein2025by$0.1billion,averysmallpercentage.CBOestimatesthatrealincomewouldincrease,onnet,by$0.4billionforfamilieswhoseincomewouldotherwisebebelowthepovertythreshold.Familieswithhigherincomeswouldseeverysmallchangestotheirrealincome.Theoptionwouldalsohaveasmalleffectonthenumberofpeopleinpoverty.Effectsofthe$12OptiononEmploymentandIncome.Underthe$12option,accordingtoCBO’smedianestimate,about0.3millionworkerswhowouldother-wisebeemployedwouldbejoblessinanaverageweekin2025.(Inpercentageterms,thenumberofemployedworkerswouldfallbyabout0.2percent.)Thereisatwo-thirdschancethatthechangeinemploymentwouldliebetweenaboutzeroandareductionof0.8millionworkers,inCBO’sassessment.However,inanaverageweekin2025,theincreaseinthefederalminimumwagewouldboostthewagesof5millionworkerswhowouldotherwiseearnlessthan$12perhour,CBOestimates.Wageswouldalsoincreaseformanyofthe6millionworkerswhowouldotherwiseearnjustabove$12perbetweenminimumwagesandarangeofoutcomesotherthanemploymentandfamilyincome.Thoseincludelaborforceoutcomessuchaslaborforceparticipation(whetherapersonisworkingoractivelyseekingajob);healthoutcomessuchasdepression,suicide,andobesity;educationoutcomessuchasschoolcompletionandjobtraining;andsocialoutcomessuchascrime.CBOdidnotexaminethoseotherpossibleoutcomesinthisanalysis.CBOalsodidnotestimatehowanyofthethreeoptionswouldaffectthefederalbudget.However,theagencypreviouslyestimatedhowproposedchangestothemin-imumwageundertheRaisetheWageAct(H.R.582)wouldaffectthefederalbudgetbyboostingthepayofcertainfederalemployees.2Thepolicyanalyzedinthatestimateisverysimilartothe$15optioninthisreport. 2.CongressionalBudgetOffice,costestimateforH.R.582,RaisetheWageAct(April22,2019),/publication/55152.Likethe$15option,thisoptionwouldboostwages,income,raiseprices,andlowertotaloutputintheeconomy.Onbalance,realfamilyincomein2025wouldfallby$1billion,orlessthan0.05percent.Theeffectsofthosechangeswouldagainvaryacrossfamilies.CBOestimatedthatfamilieswithincomebelowthepovertythresholdundercurrentlawwouldreceive$2.3billionTheeffecTsonemymenandfamilyTheeffecTsonemymenandfamilyincomeofincreasingThefederalminimum JulyWhyAretheOutcomesTherearetwomainreasonswhyCBO’smedianesti-matesoftheeffectsofincreasesintheminimumwageonemploymentareuncertain.First,futurewagegrowthundercurrentlawisuncertain.IfwagesgrowfasterthanCBOprojects,thenwagesin2025willbehigherundercurrentlawthanCBOanticipates.Inthatcase,increasesinthefederalminimumwagewouldhavesmallereffectsonemploymentthanCBOexpects.IfwagesgrowmoreslowlythanCBOprojects,theoptionswouldhavelargereffectsonemploymentthanCBOexpects.ofLaborareallowedtopaydisabledworkerswagesbelow$7.25perhour—thoughthoselowerwagesmustbejustifiedbyanalysesofprevailingwagesandworkerproductivity.Thereareabout125,000suchworkers.Overtheyears,thefederalminimumwagehasriseninnominalterms(thatis,notadjustedforinflation).Themostrecentchangesraisedtheminimumwageinthreesteps,from$5.15perhourinJuly2007to$7.25inJuly2009,whereitstandstoday.5Therealvalueoftheminimumwagehasbothrisenandfallenovertheyears,however,asthenominalincreaseshavebeenerodedbyinflation(seeFigure2).6Thaterosionwaspronouncedbetween1981and1989,between1998and2006,andbetween2010and2019—periodsduringwhichthenominalminimumwagewasunchanged.Second,thereisconsiderableuncertaintyabouttheresponsivenessofemploymenttoanincreaseinthemini-mumwage.IfemploymentismoreresponsivethanCBOexpects,thenincreasesintheminimumwagewouldleadtolargerdeclinesinemployment.Bycontrast,ifemploy-mentislessresponsivethanCBOexpects,thensuchincreaseswouldleadtosmallerdeclinesinemployment.Findingsintheresearchliteratureabouthowchangesinthefederalminimumwageaffectemploymentvarywidely.Manystudieshavefoundlittleornoeffectofminimumwagesonemployment,butmanyothershavefoundsubstantialreductionsinemployment.Asof2019,29statesandtheDistrictofColumbiahaveaminimumwagehigherthanthefederalminimum.(Manyyears.)Theminimumwageisindexedtoinflationin17ofthosestates,andfutureincreaseshavebeenmandatedin6more.Somelocalitiesalsohaveminimumwageshigherthantheapplicablestateorfederalminimumwage;inSanFrancisco,forinstance,theminimumwageincreasedto$15.59perhourasofJuly1,2019,andisadjustedforinflationannually.About60percentofallworkerscur-morethan$7.25perhour.Andin2025,about30percentofworkerswillliveinstateswithaminimumwageof$15orhigher,CBOestimates(seeFigure3).TheCurrentFederalMinimumTheFairLaborStandardsActof1938(FLSA)estab-lishedthefederalminimumwage.Undercurrentlaw,coverworkerswhoareself-employed,workforcertainsmallemployers,orarepaidbythenumberofprojectstheycompleteratherthantheamountoftimetheywork.3Forothercategoriesofworkers,theFLSAmakessomeexceptionstothefederalminimumwage.Tippedworkers,suchaswaitersandbartenders,aresubjecttotwoseparateminimumwages.Theirtotalhourlyearn-ings(includingtips)mustequalorexceed$7.25—theregularminimumwage—and,separately,their“cash”earnings(excludingtips)mustexceed$2.13perhour.CBOestimatesthat3millionworkersaresubjecttothoseprovisions.TheFLSAalsoallowsemployerstopayteenageworkers$4.25perhourduringtheirfirst90daysofemployment.4EmployerscertifiedbytheDepartmentFederalMinimumWageAct(H.R.582),whichwouldincreaseitto$15perhour SeealsoDepartmentofLabor,“WagesandHoursWorked:MinimumWageandOvertimePay(accessedMay22,2019),Thereisaseparateminimumwageof$10.60perhourthatappliestofederalcontractorsasofJanuary1,2019.SeeDepartmentofLabor,“ExecutiveOrder13658,EstablishingaMinimumWageforContractors:AnnualUpdate”(accessedJune28,2019),/whd/flsa/eo13658/.Adjustedforinflation,thefederalminimumwagereacheditshistoricalpeakin1968.Inthatyear,itsvaluewas$1.60in1968dollars,whichisequalto$9.42in2018dollarsiftheconversionisdoneusingthepriceindexforpersonalconsumptionexpenditurespublishedbytheBureauofEconomicAnalysis.FordetailsaboutwhoiscoveredbytheFLSA,seeDepartmentofAct(FLSA)”(July2009),/whd/regs/compliance/FordetailsabouttheFLSA’sminimum-wagerequirements,seeFairLaborStandardsActof1938,29U.S.C.§201etseq.(2012).6TheeffecTsonemymenandfamilyincomeofincreasingThefederalminimumJulyFigureWorkers’HourlyWagesandtheFederalMinimumWage,6TheeffecTsonemymenandfamilyincomeofincreasingThefederalminimumJulyFigureWorkers’HourlyWagesandtheFederalMinimumWage,1973to2018$1525thPercentileofWorkers’Wages10thPercentileofWorkers’Wages$12$108CurrentFederalMinimum40Theoptionswouldraisetheminimumwageto$15,$12,and$10,respectively,insixstepsbetweenJanuary1,2020,andJanuary1,2025.Under$15option,theminimumwagewouldthenbeindexedtomedianhourlywages;underthe$12and$10options,itwouldCBOconvertedwagesto2018dollarsusingthepriceindexforpersonalconsumptionexpenditurespublishedbytheBureauofEconomicAnalysis.Forexample,nominalvaluesin2025of$15,$12,and$10wereadjusteddownwardtoaccountforprojectedinflationbetween2018and2025.After2025,theminimumwageunderthe$15optionwouldincreaseslightlybecauseitwouldbeindexedtomedianhourlyearnings,whichwouldgrowfasterthanthepriceindexforpersonalconsumptionexpenditures,CBOprojects.ActualandprojectedvaluesareasofJanuary1ofeachyear.a.Thehourlywageofworkerswhodidnotreportanhourlywagewasestimatedastheirweeklyearningsdividedbytheirusualhoursworkedperweek.Valuesbeyond2018areprojectedundercurrentlaw.andsubsequentlyindexittogrowthinmedianwages.7optionsthatwouldboosttheminimumwageto$12$10perhour,respectively.(SeeAppendixAformorethelowerminimumwagesforworkerswhoseearningsabledworkers.Theotheroptionswouldnot.and2025underthisoptionwouldbeabout105per-cent,apercentageincreaseconsiderablyhigherthananyincreasemandatedbypriorlegislation.8Underthisoption,theminimumcashwagefortippedworkerswouldimmediatelyincreasefrom$2.13perhourto$3.60perhourandwouldthenincreaseby$1.50eachyearuntilitreachedtheregularminimumwage.Thatwouldhappenin2029,CBOprojects.The$15Thefirstoptionwouldincreasethefederalminimumwagefrom$7.25perhourto$15perhourby2025.Thechangewouldbeinsixsteps:fiveannualincreasesof$1.30beginningonJanuary1,2020,andafinalincreaseof$1.25onJanuary1,2025.Theminimumwagewouldrisewiththemedianhourlywageineachensuingyear.Theincreaseinthefederalminimumwagebetween2020TheRaisetheWageActwouldphaseoutthelowerminimumwagethatappliestoteenagersduringthefirst90daystheyworkforanemployer.Inparticular,thatlowerminimumwouldincreasefrom$4.25to$5.50in2020andwouldcontinuetoincreaseby$1.25ineach8.TheFLSAappliestoPuertoRicoandcertainotherU.S.territories,butbecauseoflimitationsinavailabledata,CBO’sanalysisisandfamilyincomeinthe50statesandtheDistrictof7.H.R.582,theRaisetheWageAct,wasorderedreportedbytheHouseCommitteeonEducationandLaboronMarch6,TheeffecTsonemymenandfamilyincomeofincreasingThefederalminimum JulyFigureSharesofWorkers,byStates’ApplicableMinimumTheeffecTsonemymenandfamilyincomeofincreasingThefederalminimum JulyFigureSharesofWorkers,byStates’ApplicableMinimum0$7.26to$10.00to$12.00to$15.00orFor2019,theshareofworkersineachcategoryisestimatedonthebasisofcurrentstatelaw.For2025,thosearealsobasedonscheduledchangesinstateminimumsandhowstateshavechangedtheirminimumwagesinthepast.subsequentyearuntil2028,whenthelowerminimumforteenagerswouldbeeliminated.Teenagersmaybepaidlessthantheregularminimumwageforanum-berofotherreasons,includingworkingforanexemptemployerorinanexemptoccupation.InCBO’sassess-ment,relativelyfewteenagersarepaidlessthantheregularminimumwageduringtheirfirst90dayswithan1973.9Andmandatedincreasesinwagesundertheoption—amountingto21percent,onaverage—wouldbegreaterthanthoseunderanyrecentchangetothefed-eralminimumwage(seeFigure4).10Furthermore,pastincreaseshavebeenerodedbyinflationinsubsequentyears.Underthe$15option,bycontrast,theminimumwagewouldincreaseinrealtermsafter2025becauseCBOexpectsmedianwagestogrowfasterthanprices.TheRaisetheWageActwouldalsophaseoutthelowerminimumwagesthatapplytopeoplewithdisabilities.Thelowerminimumfordisabledworkerswouldriseto$4.25in2021,to$6.40in2022,to$8.55in2023,$10.70in2024,to$12.85in2025,andtotheregu-larminimumwagein2026.Initsanalysisoftheoption’seffects,CBOappliedtheregularminimumwagetodisabledworkersin2025.The$12ThesecondoptionCBOexaminedwouldeffectasmallerchange,increasingthefederalminimumwageto$12perhourinsixannualincrementsfromJanuary1,2020,toJanuary1,2025.Thelowerminimumwagesfortipped,teenage,anddisabledworkerswouldremainunchangedunderthisoption.Likepreviousincreasesinthefederalminimumwage,thisoptionwouldnotbeindexedtoThe$15option’seffectonwageswouldbeunprece-dentedinrecenthistory,CBOestimates.Theoptionwouldplacethefederalminimumwageatthe20thpercentileofprojectedhourlywagesin2025,higherinthewagedistributionthanithasbeenatanytimeThefederalminimumwageincreasedonMay1,1974,andonJanuary1ofeachofthesubsequentsevenyearsbeforeremainingunchanged(innominalterms)betweenJanuary1,1981,andApril1,1990.10.Thewageincreasesmandatedbythe$15optionwouldalsobelargerthanthosemandatedbythestateandlocallawsthathavebeenstudiedtodate.8TheeffecTsonemymenandfamilyincomeofincreasingThefederalminimumJulyFigureMagnitudeofHistoricaland8TheeffecTsonemymenandfamilyincomeofincreasingThefederalminimumJulyFigureMagnitudeofHistoricalandProposedIncreasesintheFederalMinimumAverageMandatedPercentageIncreaseinWagesforDirectlyAffected$15in$12in$10.10in$4.25in$7.25in$10in$5.15in5$9in002468PercentageofWorkersWhoAreDirectlySource:CongressionalBudgetOffice,usingmonthlydatafromtheCensusBureau’sCurrentPopulationDirectlyaffectedworkersarethosewhosehourlywage,intheabsenceofthechangeintheminimumwage,wouldrangefromjustbelowtheoldminimumtothenew,higherminimum.Thetwopointslabeled2016areoptionsCBOanalyzedinTheEffectsofaMinimum-WageIncreaseonEmploymentandFamily(February2014),/publication/44995.Thoseoptionswerenotsubsequentwagegrowth.The$12optionismoresimilarthanthe$15optiontopastminimum-wageincreasesintermsofthefractionoftheemployedworkersitwouldaffectandthesizeofthewageincreasesitwouldmandate.Theoptionwouldaffect4percentofworkersin2025,andmandatedincreasesinwagesunderthisoptionwouldamountto14percent,onaverage.HowIncreasesintheMinimumWageAffectEmploymentandFamilyIncomeRaisingtheminimumwagehasavarietyofeffectsonbothemploymentandfamilyincome.Byincreasingthecostofemployinglow-wageworkers,ahigherminimumwagegenerallyleadsemployerstoreducethesizeoftheircumstances,employmentcanincrease.Theeffectswoulddifferacrossworkers,employers,andstates.Theeffectsonemploymentwouldalsocausechangesinpricesandintheuseofdifferenttypesoflaborandcapital.The$10ThelastoptionCBOexaminedwouldmakeanevensmallerchangetothefederalminimumwage,increasingitto$10perhourinsixannualincrementsfromJanuary1,2020,toJanuary1,2025.Likethe$12option,thisoptionwouldnotchangethelowerminimumwagesfortipped,teenage,anddisabledworkersorindextheminimumwagetosubsequentincreasesinwages.Theoptionwouldaffect1percentofworkersin2025,andtheaveragemandatedincreaseinwagesforthosework-erswouldbe7percent.Together,t