摩根大通-新興市場資金監(jiān)控0723

GlobalEmergingMarketsResearch

19July2024

EMFlowsWeekly

PositivemomentumcontinuesforEMbondfunds

EMFlowsWeeklyincludesfundflowdata,non-residentEMportfolioflowdata,weeklyretailfundflowmodels,EM-dedicatedretailbondfundbetatrackers,andhistoricalcross-assetfundflows.

?EMbondflowswere+$349mn(+0.09%ofweeklyAUM,↑from+$208mn);EMequityflowswere-$1.7bn(-0.13%ofweeklyAUM,↓from+$485mn).

?YTDflowstoEMbondsandequities:-$11.7bnand-$9.7bn,respectively.IncorporatingJune’smonthlyflowdataresultsinrevisionsof-$1.4bnforEMbondsand+$1.9bnforEMequities.

?Werecord+$1.4bnofstrategicinflowsoverMayandJune,split+$2.2bninhardcurrencyand-$0.8bninlocalcurrency.

?EMBondFunds:Overallretailinflowsroseto+$349mnthisweek(from+$208mn).Inflowsagainwereconcentratedinhardcurrency,whichsawinflowsof+$430mn(from+$289mn).Localcurrency,meanwhile,sawoutflowsof-$81mn(unchangedfromtheweekprior).ETFinflowsfellto+$492mn(from+$533mn),andnon-ETFfundssawoutflowsof-$143mn(from-$325mn).

-Withinlocalcurrency,EMex-Chinasawoutflowsof-$25mn(from-$32mn),whileChina-focusedfundssawoutflowsof-$56mn(from-$49mn).

-Withinhardcurrency,AsiaXJfundssawoutflowsof-$7mn(from-$323mn),while“broad”EMfundssawinflowsof+$437mn(from+$612mn).

?EMEquityFunds:Outflowsgrewto-$1.7bnthisweek(from+$485mn).ETFssawincreasedoutflows(-$483mn),whilenon-ETFshadincreasedoutflowsaswell(-$1.2bn).Amongregionalfunds,Asiaex-Japansawincreasedoutflowsof-$1.6bn(from+$792mn);EMEAhadinflows(+$137mn)andLatamhadoutflows(-$57mn).

?GlobalCross-AssetFunds:USHGfundinflowsof+$6.5bnthisweek(from+$1.8bn);USHYfundinflowssubstantiallyincreased(+$3.2bn,from+$879mn).

?Non-residentEMPortfolioFlows:EMlocalbondssawnetnon-residentoutflowsthisweek,ledbyHungary(-$440mn).EMequitiessawnetoutflowsalso,mainlyfromTaiwan-$4.6bn).

EmergingMarketsResearch

SantiagoJOlalquiagaCalcanoAC

(1-212)6222484

santiago.olalquiagacalcano@J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC

NishantMPoojary,CFA

(4420)3493-3859

nishant.m.poojary@J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

GorkaLalaguna

(1-212)622-0550

gorka.lalaguna@J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC

PedroMartinsJunior,CFA

(55-11)4950-4121

pedro.x.martins@BancoJ.P.MorganS.A.

Contents

Cross-AssetFundFlowsMatrix

3

High-FrequencyTrends:EMRetailBondFundFlows

4

High-FrequencyTrends:EMAsiaex-JapanHardCcyFocus

5

High-FrequencyTrends:EMRetailEquityFundFlows

6

High-FrequencyTrends:EMRetailETFsHigh-FrequencyTrends:Non-ResidentEMPortfolioFlows

8

9

WeeklyRetailFundFlowModels:EMBonds

10

EM-DedicatedRetailBondFundBetaTrackers

11

FundFlowsbyYear:EMBonds

12

FundFlowsbyYear:EMEquity

13

CumulativeEMFundFlows:BondsandEquity

CumulativeEMFundFlowsvs.Performanceand

14

GlobalFlows

15

Appendix:AGuidetotheEMFlowsWeekly

16

What’scoveredinthisreport?

18

Seepage19foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.

J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

2

SantiagoJOlalquiagaCalcanoAC(1-212)6222484santiago.olalquiagacalcano@jpmorgan.com

J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC

NishantMPoojary,CFA(4420)3493-3859nishant.m.poojary@

GorkaLalaguna(1-212)622-0550gorka.lalaguna@

PedroMartinsJunior,CFA(55-11)4950-4121pedro.x.martins@

GlobalEmergingMarketsResearch

EMFlowsWeekly

19July2024

Figure1:Weeklycross-assetflows

USDbillion

Asset8wflows(8wago→current)ThiswkYTD

EMBondsandEquities-1.4-21.4

EMBonds0.3-11.7

HardCcy0.4-3.0

LocalCcy^-0.1-8.7

o.w.EMex-China0.0-7.9

FundFlows

o.w.China-0.1-1.1

EMEquities-———-m—m-1.7-9.7

USHG6.5211.6

USHY-回—--——回3.214.1

GlobalEquities39.0129.1

EMBondandEquityETFs0.015.0

EMBondETFs0.5-0.6

EMEquityETFs-0.515.5

-1.714.8

Non-residentEMflows*

Figure2:EMbondandequityfundflows

USDbillion

63

200

51

150

101

100

97

84

50

0

-50

-100

3251100116

-49

-48

35·34-1508247-5--214--61352311

-66

-90

EMEquities-4

EMBonds

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

-150

*High-frequencynon-residentEMportfolioflowdatawhereavailable.^Localccysplitisretailonly.Sourceforallchartsanddatainthisreport:J.P.Morgan,EPFRGlobal,BloombergFinanceL.P.

3

SantiagoJOlalquiagaCalcanoAC(1-212)6222484

santiago.olalquiagacalcano@

GlobalEmergingMarketsResearch

19July2024

J.PMorgan

Cross-AssetFundFlowsMatrix

USDbillion

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

YTD

Jul2024

Jun2024

May2024

Apr2024

Mar2024

Feb2024

EMTotal

55.5

26.5

153.3

-94.1

-27.3

-21.4

-3.7

-1.0

-0.6

-8.7

-8.1

1.8

EMBonds

67.1

23.3

52.5

-90.0

-30.7

-11.7

-0.7

-1.6

-0.1

-0.3

-5.0

-1.9

FundType

Retail

Strategic*

43.2

11.5

34.4

-81.8

-38.8

-15.1

-0.7

-2.3

-0.8

-0.8

-5.5

-2.4

23.9

11.8

18.1

-8.2

8.1

3.5

-

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.5

Hard

55.5

22.8

31.2

-44.8

-22.3

-3.0

0.0

1.0

1.4

0.3

-1.9

-1.9

Retail

34.9

10.1

16.1

-38.1

-28.5

-6.0

0.0

-0.1

0.2

0.1

-2.1

-2.1

Strategic

20.6

12.7

15.1

-6.6

6.2

3.0

-

1.1

1.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

CurrencyLocal

11.6

0.5

21.3

-45.3

-8.4

-8.7

-0.7

-2.6

-1.5

-0.5

-3.1

0.0

Exposure**Retail

8.3

1.4

18.3

-43.7

-10.4

-9.1

-0.7

-2.2

-1.0

-0.8

-3.4

-0.3

o.w.EMex-China

5.3

-13.5

-2.6

-19.6

-3.4

-7.9

-0.6

-2.0

-1.1

-0.6

-3.2

0.0

o.w.China

3.1

14.9

20.9

-24.1

-7.0

-1.1

-0.1

-0.1

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

Strategic

3.2

-0.9

3.0

-1.6

2.0

0.4

-

-0.4

-0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

ETF

10.1

9.6

13.5

-11.0

-1.5

-0.6

1.1

0.4

1.1

0.7

-1.5

-1.9

Hardcurrency

6.4

8.2

5.5

-0.7

0.3

1.1

1.2

0.7

0.9

1.2

-0.7

-1.6

Retailfunds

Localcurrency

Non-ETF

3.6

1.4

8.1

-10.3

-1.8

-1.7

0.0

-0.4

0.2

-0.5

-0.9

-0.2

33.2

1.9

20.9

-70.8

-37.3

-14.5

-1.8

-2.6

-1.9

-1.5

-4.0

-0.5

Hardcurrency

28.5

2.0

10.6

-37.4

-28.7

-7.2

-1.1

-0.8

-0.6

-1.2

-1.4

-0.5

Localcurrency

4.7

-0.1

10.2

-33.4

-8.6

-7.4

-0.7

-1.8

-1.3

-0.3

-2.6

0.0

EMEquity

-11.6

3.2

100.8

-4.1

3.4

-9.7

-3.0

0.6

-0.6

-8.4

-3.1

3.7

ETF

8.7

6.0

59.9

54.7

39.5

15.5

0.0

0.9

5.2

-2.8

4.4

5.4

Non-ETF

-20.3

-2.8

40.9

-58.7

-36.1

-25.3

-3.0

-0.3

-5.8

-5.6

-7.4

-1.7

GEM

15.7

-12.7

65.5

-10.6

3.0

-1.9

-1.4

-0.5

-2.3

-4.4

-1.0

4.0

Geographicfocus

Regional

Asiaex-JapanEMEAEM

-27.3

15.9

35.3

6.5

0.4

-7.9

-1.6

1.1

1.7

-4.0

-2.1

-0.3

-21.9

20.5

42.4

6.6

1.9

-5.4

-1.5

1.4

1.4

-3.3

-1.4

0.1

-4.3

-3.3

-2.7

-1.1

-4.1

0.5

0.2

-0.4

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

LatinAmerica

-1.1

-1.3

-4.5

1.0

2.6

-2.9

-0.3

0.1

-0.2

-0.8

-0.8

-0.4

GlobalCross-Asset

USHG

239.8

224.6

277.9

-59.0

283.7

211.6

14.2

30.8

22.9

21.1

40.5

38.6

USHY

26.8

49.4

-4.9

-45.5

6.3

14.1

4.7

1.3

7.5

-5.1

0.5

0.7

Munis

94.8

41.6

106.2

-112.0

-2.8

14.2

2.7

0.2

2.0

-0.7

4.0

1.9

US-domiciledMortgages

26.7

8.8

3.1

-25.6

16.3

16.1

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.6

1.3

fundsTIPS

11.0

22.3

70.3

-23.1

-25.7

-3.3

0.1

-1.1

-2.4

-1.0

-0.3

1.0

USEquities

-131.8

-260.6

165.2

4.0

-62.3

96.7

50.1

13.2

26.1

-27.9

52.2

-3.4

Non-USEquities

-45.4

-84.6

271.1

-48.6

-2.4

32.4

0.0

6.9

0.9

-4.4

8.0

12.8

*CalculatedquarterlyfromtheJ.P.MorganEMClientSurvey,seeAppendixforfurtherdetails.**Blendedbondfundflowsareequallysplitintohardandlocalcurrency.

Figure3:Cross-AssetFundFlowSummary

USDbillion

1yRangeFlowMomentum

USDbillion

1yHistoryYTD

Min10-Jul17-Jul1yRange4wRangeMax17-Julvs1wvs4w4wvs1y

▽

▲

▲

▼

▲

▼

▽

▼▼▼▼▼

▲

▼

▲▲▲▲

▲▲▲

▼

▲▲▲▲▲

▼

▲▲

▼

▲▲▲▲▲

▼▼▼

▲

▼▼

▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲

▼

▼

▲▲

-6.0-3.0

-2.1-1.8-1.1-2.5

-3.5

-1.8 -2.4 -2.5 -1.8 -1.9 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -3.2 -1.3 -0.3 -1.6-23.5-6.5

2.3

0.8

1.70.30.90.5

1.9

2.9 0.5 0.6 1.6 1.4 0.1 0.4 9.5 6.6 1.6 1.8 0.653.45.1

-21.4-11.7

-3.0 -8.7 -0.6-11.1

-9.7

15.5

-25.3-1.9-7.9-5.4

0.5

-2.9

211.614.114.216.1

-3.3

96.732.4

EMTotalEMBonds

-

▼

▲

▼▼▼▼▼▼

▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲

▼

HardCcyLocalCcyETF

Non-ETF

EMEquities

ETF

Non-ETFGEM

Regional

-

Asiaex-JapanEMEA

▼▼▼

▲▲▲▲▲

LatAm

USHG

USHY

Munis

-

MortgagesTIPS

▲

▼

USEquities

Non-USEquities

Outflow←Zero→Inflow

Thegraybarsofequalsizerepresentanormalized1yrangeofweeklyfundflowsreadingsacrossassetclassesandarealignedsuchthattheverticallinerepresentszeroflows.Foradetailedexplanation,pleaserefertotheAppendixonpages15-17,alsodetailingwhatisincludedinthisreport.

4

SantiagoJOlalquiagaCalcanoAC(1-212)6222484

santiago.olalquiagacalcano@

GlobalEmergingMarketsResearch

19July2024

J.PMorgan

High-FrequencyTrends:EMRetailBondFundFlows

EMRetailBondFundFlows:Summary

Figure5:EMretailbondfundflowsummary

Figure4:WeeklyEMretailbondfundflows

USDbillion

USDmillionThiswkLastwkChg4wavg12wavg

EMBonds

349

208

▲

39

-319

Hardcurrency

307

366

▼

462

133

Localcurrency

-203

-4

▼

-350

-265

o.w.EMex-China

-148

45

▼

-318

-253

o.w.China

-56

-49

-

-32

-12

Blend

245

-154

▲

-73

-186

ETF

492

533

▼

383

211

Non-ETF

-143

-325

▲

-345

-529

5BondTotal5wmovingaverage

3

1

-1

-3

-5

Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-24

EMRetailBondFundFlows:Currency;Sovereignvs.CorporateSplits

Figure6:WeeklyEMretailbondfundflows:currencyexposure

USDbillion.Blendedbondfundflowsareequallysplitintohardandlocalcurrency.

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

HardLocal

-4

Jul23Oct23Jan24Apr24

Figure7:WeeklyEMretailbondfundflows:strategyfocus

USDbillion

2SovereignCorporateMixed

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

Jul23Oct23Jan24Apr24

EMRetailBondFundAUM

Figure8:EMretailbondfundAUM:currencyexposure

USDbillion

800HardLocalBlend

600

400

200

0

20042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Figure9:EMretailbondfundAUM:strategyfocus

USDbillion

800SovereignCorporateMixed

600

400

200

0

20042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

EMRetailLocalCurrencyBondFundFlows:EMex-China&China

Figure10:WeeklyEMretaillocalcurrencybondfundflow

USDbillion

1

.LocalChina

LocalEMex-China

1

0

-1

-1

-2

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

-2

Figure11:3mcumulativeEMretaillocalcurrencybondfundflow

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

USDbillion

LocalEMex-ChinaLocalChina

24-Apr

1-May

8-May

15-May

22-May

29-May

5-Jun

12-Jun

19-Jun

26-Jun

3-Jul

10-Jul

17-Jul

5

SantiagoJOlalquiagaCalcanoAC(1-212)6222484

santiago.olalquiagacalcano@

GlobalEmergingMarketsResearch

19July2024

J.PMorgan

High-FrequencyTrends:EMAsiaex-JapanHardCcyFocus

EMAsiaex-Japan(AsiaXJ)hardcurrencybondfundssawoutflowsthisweek(-$7mn,from-$323mn).Non-ETFfundssawinflows(+$10mn),whileETFssawoutflows(-$17mn).Fromafundmandateperspective,therewereoutflowsfrommixed(-$16mn)funds,inflowsintocorporate(+$9mn)funds,whilesovereignfundswereflat.Asaresult,YTDcumulativeflowstoEMAsiaXJhard-currencybondfundswere-$2.7bn,vs.-$3.4bnfor“broad”

EMhardcurrencybondfunds.

Weeklybondfundflows

Figure12:WeeklyAsiaexJapanhardcurrencybondfundflows

0.3

0.1

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

USDbillion

-.SovereignwCorporate.Mixed

Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24

Figure13:WeeklyEMretailhardcurrencybondfundflows

USDbillion

AsiaXJhard

ccybondfunds'Broad'EM

2.51.50.5-0.5-1.5-2.5

Cumulativebondfundflows

Figure14:CumulativeAsiaXJhardcurrencybondfundflow

200

150

100

50

0

-50

USDbillion

50

SovereignCorporateMixed

40

30

20

10

0

Dec-06

Nov-07

Oct-08

Sep-09

Aug-10

Jul-11

Jun-12

May-13

Apr-14

Mar-15

Feb-16

Jan-17

Dec-17

Nov-18

Oct-19

Sep-20

Aug-21

Jul-22

Jun-23

May-24

-10

Figure15:CumulativeEMretailhardcurrencybondfundflow

USDbillion

Dec-06

Nov-07

Oct-08

Sep-09

Aug-10

Jul-11

Jun-12

May-13

Apr-14

Mar-15

Feb-16

Jan-17

Dec-17

Nov-18

Oct-19

Sep-20

Aug-21

Jul-22

Jun-23

May-24

bondfunds'Broad'EM

AsiaXJhardccy

Annualbondfundflows

Figure16:AnnualcumulativeAsiaXJhardcurrencybondfundflow

USDbillion

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

2020

2023

2021

2022

2024

14.7

6.5

-8.1

-8.3

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Figure17:AnnualEMretailhardcurrencybondfundflow

USDbillion

6040-20 0-20-40-60

AsiaexJapanhardccybondfunds'Broad'EM

49.1

25.9

1.4

3.2--.·9.0·.14.7-8.1·-8.3--.

-30.0-20.2

20172018201920202021202220232024

'Broad'EMdefinedasEMretailhardcurrencybondfundsminusAsiaex-Japanfocusedhardcurrencybondfunds.

6

SantiagoJOlalquiagaCalcanoAC(1-212)6222484

santiago.olalquiagacalcano@

GlobalEmergingMarketsResearch

19July2024

J.PMorgan

High-FrequencyTrends:EMRetailEquityFundFlows

EMRetailEquityFundFlows:Summary

Figure18:EMRetailEquityFundFlowsSummaryTable

USDmillionThiswkLastwkChg4wavg12wavg

EMEquity

-1,727

485

▽

-921

-283

GEM

-253

-218

▽

-648

-427

Regional

-1,474

702

▽

-273

143

Asiaex-Japan

-1,554

792

▽

-234

181

EMEA

137

56

▲

31

13

LatAm

-57

-146

▲

-71

-51

ETF

-483

1,025

▽

206

559

Non-ETF

-1,244

-541

▽

-1,127

-843

Figure19:WeeklyEMretailequityfundflows

USDbillion

3EquityTotal4wmovingaverage

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-

Figure20:WeeklyEMretailequityfundflows:Globalvs.Regional

USDbillion

10

.GEM.Regional

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

Oct22

Apr23

Jul23Oct23Jan24Apr24

Jan23

Jul22

Figure21:WeeklyEMretailequityfundflows:Regionalfocus

USDbillion

5

Asiaex-Japan

.EMEA.LatinAmerica

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

Oct22

Apr23

Apr24

Jul23Oct23

Jan23

Jan24

Jul22

7

SantiagoJOlalquiagaCalcanoAC(1-212)6222484

santiago.olalquiagacalcano@

GlobalEmergingMarketsResearch

19July2024

J.PMorgan

EMRetailEquityFundAUM

Figure22:EMretailequityfundAUM:Globalvs.Regional

USDbillion

2,200

GEMRegional

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

20042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Figure23:EMretailequityfundAUM:Regionalfocus

USDbillion

800Asiaex-JapanEMEALatinAmerica

600

400

200

0

20042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

ForacomprehensiveanalysisofEMequityfundflows,includingcountry-levelflowsandrelativepositioning,pleaseseeEMMoneyTrail.

8

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

SantiagoJOlalquiagaCalcanoAC(1-212)6222484

santiago.olalquiagacalcano@

GlobalEmergingMarketsResearch

19July2024

J.PMorgan

High-FrequencyTrends:EMRetailETFs

EMRetailETFFlows:Summary

Figure24:EMRetailETFflowsummarytable

USDmillionThiswkLastwkChg4wavg12wavg

EMETF9

1,558

▽

589

770

EMEquity-483

1,025

▽

206

559

EMBonds492

533

▽

383

211

Hardcurrency595

549

▲

405

237

Localcurrency-102

-16

▽

-22

-26

RetailETFAUM

EMBonds

EMEquity

Marketcap(USDbillion)

71

557

Marketcap(%ofretailuniverse)

16%

33%

Figure25:WeeklyEMretailETFflows

USDbillion

.EquityETF.BondETF

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

-3

EMRetailETFFlowsvs.non-ETFFlows

Figure26:WeeklyEMretailequityETFflows

USDbillion

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

4-.Equity-ETF.Equitynon-ETF

2i

0

-4

-6

-2

Figure27:WeeklyEMretailbondETFflows

USDbillion

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

-.Bond-ETF.Bondnon-ETF

EMRetailETFFlowsvs.Performance

Figure28:EMequityETFs

Figure29:EMhardcurrencybondETFs

1wETFflow(USDbillion)

8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%

2wMSCIEMReturn(rhs)→

wre

4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%-4%-5%

1.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0

0.30.20.10.0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.6

1wETFFlow(USDbillion)

2wEMBIGReturn(rhs)→

Aug-23Nov-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24

Aug-23Nov-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24

EMRetailETFAUMvs.non-ETFAUM

Figure31:EMretailequityfundAUM

USDbillion

Figure32:EMretailbondfundAUM

USDbillion

2,200

EquityETFEquitynon-ETF

800BondETFBondnon-ETF

2,000

1,800

600

1,600

1,400

1,200

400

1,000

800

600

200

400

200

0

0

20042006200820102012201420162018202020222024

Figure30:EMlocalcurrencybondETFs

6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%

1wETFflow(USDbillion)

2wGBI-EMGDReturn(rhs)→

Aug-23Nov-23Jan-24Apr-24Jul-24

Figure33:EMretailfundAUMsummary

USDbillion

ETFNon-ETF

557

1,11971

362

EMEquityEMBonds

9

SantiagoJOlalquiagaCalcanoAC(1-212)6222484

santiago.olalquiagacalcano@

GlobalEmergingMarketsResearch

19July2024

J.PMorgan

High-FrequencyTrends:Non-ResidentEMPortfolioFlows

Tocomplementourweeklyfundflowdata,wetrackhigh-frequency(dailyandweekly)EMportfolioflowdata.ThisdataprovidemorecomprehensivecoverageofEMflowsbutisonlyavailableforcertaincountries.Exhibit35showsdailynon-residentEMflowsoverthepastweekforcountrieswheredataareavailable,inadditionto

totalflowsoverthelastweek,month,andthreemonths.Exhibits36-37showthree-monthcumulativeflows,andExhibits38-39showone-yearcumulativeflows.

Figure34:High-frequencynon-residentgrossportfolioflowsintoEMlocalbondsandEMequities

USDbillion

18-Jul

17-Jul

16-Jul

15-Jul

12-Jul

1w

1m

YTD

EMlocalbonds

-1

-133

-142

-163

-152

-590

3,958

5,573

Turkey*

-

-

-

-

-

-

1,730

4,727

Hungary

0

-80

-114

-168

-78

-440

-561

1,929

India

-1

0

5

0

-34

-30

19

-40

Indonesia

0

-53

-33

5

-39

-120

377

-1,948

Mexico^

-

-

-

-

-

-

2,394

905

EMequities

-1,259

-928

9

75

-908

-3,011

2,220

9,187

Turkey*

-

-

-

-

-

-

-288

-1,827

India

604

0

199

399

643

1,845

5,557

3,847

Indonesia

72

-5

-33

7

77

118

393

-127

Korea

-193

-200

72

22

-339

-638

2,575

19,213

Malaysia

5

51

14

70

0

139

197

152

Philippines

7

12

5

-1

4

28

0

-495

Taiwan

-1,788

-806

-267

-421

-1,320

-4,601

-6,933

-943

Thailand

36

19

-2

-12

0

41

-403

-3,299

Brazil

0

0

20

10

27

57

1,122

-7,333

*laggedweeklydata^dailydatawitha10-daylagSource:J.P.Morgan,BloombergFinanceL.P.

18-Jul3mrange

→

Inflow

Zero

Outflow←

Figure35:Cumulativenon-residentflowsintoEMlocalbondsandEMequityoverthepastthreemonths

USDbillion

10

3mcumulativeEMlocalbondflows

3mcumulativeEMequityflows

5

0

22-Apr

29-Apr

06-May

13-May

20-May

27-May

03-Jun

10-Jun

17-Jun

24-Jun

01-Jul

08-Jul

15-Jul

-5

Figure36:Cumulativenon-residentflowsintoEMlocalbondsoverthepastthreemonths

USDbillion

Turkey

Indonesia

India

6

HungaryMexico

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

22-Apr06-May20-May03-Jun17-Jun01-Jul15-Jul

Figure37:EMlocalbonds:retailflowsvs.highfrequencynon-residentflowdata

USDbillion,1ycumulativeflows

20

1ycumulativeEMretaillocalcurrencybondflows1ycumulativeEMnon-residentlocalbondflows

10

0

-10

-20

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

-30

Figure38:EMequity:retailflowsvs.highfrequencynon-residentflowdata

USDbillion,1ycumulativeflows

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

Jul-23

Aug-23

Sep-23

Oct-23

Nov-23

Dec-23

Jan-24

Feb-24

Mar-24

Apr-24

May-24

Jun-24

1ycumulativeEMretailequityflows

1ycumulativeEMnon-residentequityflows

10

SantiagoJOlalquiagaCalcanoAC(1-212)6222484

santiago.olalquiagacalcano@

GlobalEmergingMarketsResearch

19July2024

J.PMorgan

WeeklyRetailFundFlowModels:EMBonds

WepresentourweeklyretailflowmodelsforEMhardcurrencyandlocalcurrencybonds.Thesemodelshelp

gaugewhethercurrentretailbondflowsarehigherorlowerthanexpected,givenbondreturnsandpreviousretailbondflows.Weshowweeklydifferencesbetweenactualretailflowsandmodelledretailflows,anddifferencesoverthepastfourweeksusingweeklydata.

EMRetailHardCurrencyBondFundFlows:Actualvs.model

Figure39:WeeklyEMretailhardcurrencybondfundflows:actualvs.model

USDmillion.ModelEMretailhardccybondfundflowspredictedonpriorhardccybondfundflows,priorhardccybondreturnsandcurrenthardccybondreturns

4000ActualEMretailhardccyflow

——ModelEMretailhardccyflow

2000

0

-2000

-4000

-6000

Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24

Figure40:DeviationsofactualweeklyEMretailhardcurrencybondfundflowsfrommodel

USDmillion.Leftaxis:actualweeklyEMretailhardcurrencybondfundflowsminusmodelweeklyEMretailhardcurrencybondfundflows;rightaxis:cumulative

difference

ActualEMretailhardccyflowminusmodelEMretailhardccyflow

3000——3ycumulativedifference(rhs)20000

2000

1000

0

-1000

-2000

-3000

10000

0

-10000

-20000

-30000

Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24

EMRetailLocalCurrencyBondFundFlows:Actualvs.model

Figure41:WeeklyEMretaillocalcurrencybondfundflows:actualvs.model

USDmillion.ModelEMretaillocalccybondfundflowspredictedonpriorlocalccybondfundflows,priorlocalccybondreturnsandcurrentlocalccybondreturns

ActualEMretaillocalccyflow

1500ModelEMretaillocalccyflow

500

-500

-1500

-2500

-3500

-4500

Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24

Figure42:DeviationsofactualweeklyEMretaillocalcurrencybondfundflowsfrommodel

USDmillion.Leftaxis:actualweeklyEMretaillocalcurrencybondfundflowsminusmodelweeklyEMretaillocalcurrencybondfundflows;rightaxis:cumulative

difference

ActualEMretaillocalccyflowminusmodelEMretaillocalccyflow

——3ycumulativedifference(rhs)

15005000

-5000

-15000

-25000

500

-500

-1500

-2500-35000

Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23Jan-24

EMRetailBondFundFlows:ModelSummary

USDmillion

Hardcurrencybondfundflows

Localcurrencybondfundflows

Totalbondfundflows

Latestweek

Actual

430

-81

349

Model

629

114

743

Difference

-199

-195

-393

Last4weeks

Actual

1,703

-1,548

155

Model

1,424

-865

558

Difference

279

-683

-403

11

SantiagoJOlalquiagaCalcanoAC(1-212)6222484

santiago.olalquiagacalcano@

GlobalEmergingMarketsResearch

19July2024

J.PMorgan

EM-DedicatedRetailBondFundBetaTrackers

Inthissection,wepresentourhigh-frequencybetatrackersforEM-dedicatedretailbondfunds.Thesebeta

trackershelpgaugereal-timefundpositioning;betasabove1indicateoverweightpositioning,betaslessthan1indicateunderweightpositioning,andabetaof1indicatesneutralpositioning.Weshow21-dayrollingAUM-weightedfundbetasoverthepastyear,usingdailydata.OursampleincludesbenchmarkedEM-dedicatedretailbondfundswithminimumAUMof$200mn.

EM-DedicatedRetailBondFundBeta:Overall

Figure43:EM-dedicatedretailbondfundbeta:overall

21-dayrollingbetaofEM-dedicatedretailbondfundstotheirrespectivebenchmarks,AUM-weighted

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-21

Apr-21

Jul-21

Oct-21

Jan-22

Apr-22

Jul-22

Oct-22

Jan-23

Apr-23

Jul-23

Oct-23

Jan-24

Apr-24

Jul-24

Total1yavgbeta

1.251.151.050.950.850.750.65

EM-DedicatedRetailBondFundBeta:Bycurrencyexposure

Figure44:EM-dedicatedhardcurrencyretailbondfundbeta

21-dayrollingbetaofEM-dedicatedhardcurrencyretailbondfundstotheirrespectivebenchmarks,AUM-weighted

Apr-20

Jul-20

Oct-20

Jan-