UNDP-多速增長又回來了但存在財(cái)政盲點(diǎn)（英）-2024-WN8

UNITEDNATIONSDEVELOPMENTPROGRAMME

DEVELOPMENTFUTURESSERIES

Multi-speedgrowthisback,

withafiscalblindspot

byGeorgeGrayMolinaandEduardoOrtiz-Juarez

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UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme1UNPlaza,NewYork,NY10017,USA

OnlineISSN:3005-3307

UNDPDevelopmentFuturesSeries

Multi-speedgrowthisback,withafiscalblindspot

byGeorgeGrayMolinaandEduardoOrtiz-Juarez1

Summary:Multi-speedgrowthisback:68developingeconomiesarecurrentlygrowingat

morethan4percent,47atbetween2and4percentand37atlessthan2percent.The

projectedeffectsonpovertyareuneven.Despiteadownwardtrendsincethepandemicin

2020,anestimated7.7percentoftheglobalpopulationcouldstillbelivinginextremepoverty

in2024,justbelowthepre-pandemiclevelof8percent,andcoulddecreaseslightlyto7.2

percentby2026.Anadditional13.1percentoftheworld’spopulationwillbelivingon$2.15to

$3.65adayin2024(makingatotalof20.8percentlivingonlessthan$3.65aday)andan

additional23.5percenton$3.65to$6.85aday(makingatotalof44.3percentlivingonless

than$6.85aday).By2026,thesharesoftheglobalpopulationlivingonlessthan$3.65and

$6.85adayareprojectedtoreach18.9percentand42.5percent,respectively.

Lookingforward,highlevelsofdebtandweakdevelopmentfinancingareexpectedto

makeunevenpatternsofgrowthandpovertymoredivergent.In49countries,netinterest

paymentsasashareofrevenuearenowhigherthan10percent,upfrom27countriesadecade

ago,andin10countries,theyarenowhigherthan25percent.Worstaffectedistheworld’s

poorestregion,Sub-SaharanAfrica,whichaccountsfor45percentofcountrieswithinterest

paymentsinexcessof10percentand50percentofcountrieswithpaymentshigherthan25

percent.Indicatorsofdebtdistressanddefaultriskremainelevated.Fordeveloping

economieswithasovereigncreditrating,61percent(54countries)havearatingbelow‘non-

investmentgrade’,andforcountrieswithdebtassessedundertheLIC-DSF,51percent(34

countries)areratedeitherinorathighriskofdebtdistress.

1GeorgeGrayMolinaisHeadofInclusiveGrowthandChiefEconomistatUNDP’sBureauforPolicyandProgramme

SupportaswellasChiefEconomicAdvisortotheUNDPAdministrator,email:george.gray.molina@;

Eduar-JuarezisLecturerinDevelopmentEconomicsatKing’sCollegeLondonandSeniorEconomic

ResearchAdvisoratUNDP’sBureauforPolicyandProgrammeSupport,email:eduardo.

Afterfouryearsofamostlysynchronizedpatternofeconomicgrowth,theglobaleconomyis

returningtoamulti-speedpattern—withsomeeconomiesacceleratingandothersmitigating

theeffectsofprolongedcrises.Thefocusofmanypolicymakersistoacceleratebothgrowth

andpotentialgrowthtoachieveinclusiveandsustainablepatternsofgrowthoverthemedium

term.Anaddedchallengeformostdevelopingeconomiesistoovercomeseverefiscaland

financialconstraintsfromthepost-pandemicperiod.

Thisbrieffocusesontheprojecteddefaulttrajectoryofeconomicgrowthindeveloping

economiesthrough2026andtheireffectsoverpovertyatvariouspovertylines($2.15,$3.65

and$6.85aday).Inthebackdroparetwoquestions:Willcurrentgrowthratesallowdeveloping

economiestoovercomeSDGreversalsinmonetarypoverty?(Yes,butataveryslowpace,alot

slowerthanthepre-Covidperiod.)And,aredevelopingeconomiesabletoscaleupSDG

investmentstoachievesomeofthekey2030Agendatargets?(No,mostlybecauseofsevere

fiscalandfinancialconstraintsthrough2026.)

Wepresentevidenceoncurrentgrowthratesandpovertyprojections,whichsuggestvery

unevenoutcomesacrossdevelopingeconomiesforthefinalyearsofthe2030Agenda.Wethen

focusonakeydivergenttrend:fiscalandfinancialflowsindevelopingeconomies.Weendthe

briefbyassessingthegeopoliticalandgeoeconomicfragmentationeffectsofthisuneven

patternofdevelopment.

Amulti-speedmoment:Backtonormal?

AperiodofinterlinkedcrisescharacterizedbytheonsetoftheCOVID-19pandemic,subsequent

shockssuchasthecost-of-livingcrisis,thewarinUkraineandtighteningfinancialconditions

ledtheworldtosynchronizedincomeandjoblossesacrossbothadvancedanddeveloping

countries.However,aswemoveforward,theglobaleconomyisrecoveringandexhibiting

significantgrowth,albeitatvaryingspeeds.Notably,developingcountriesaredemonstrating

relativelyhigherdynamismcomparedtotheiradvancedcounterparts.TheIMF’sWorld

EconomicOutlookDatabaseofApril2024allowsustoobservetwotrends:first,thecurrent

stateofeconomiesin2024comparedtoahypotheticalscenariowherethepolycrisisperioddid

notoccur,andsecond,theprojectedtrendsinthemediumtermfrom2024to2026.

Regardingthefirsttrend,asimpleexerciseadjustscountries’forecastedeconomicgrowthin

2024(covering186countries)bytheirgaprelativetotheforecastsmadein2019,beforethe

polycrisisperiod.TheseadjustedGDPgrowthratesarethenclassifiedintothreegroups:

mitigation,iftheadjustedratesarebelow2percent(indicatinglowgrowth);muddlingthrough,

iftheadjustedratesrangefrom2percentto4percent(indicatingmoderategrowth);and

acceleration,iftheratesareabove4percent(indicatinghighgrowth).Figure1illustratesthese

classifications.

In2024,nearlyhalfofthedevelopingworld(68countries)isintheaccelerationstage,with

currentgrowthratesaveraging5.4percent,significantlysurpassingtheirexpectedaveragerates

beforethepandemicandsubsequentcrises.Additionally,31percent(47countries)areinthe

muddlingthroughstage,withaveragegrowthratesof3.2percent,approachingtheirpre-

pandemicaverageof3.8percent.Onlyaquarterofdevelopingcountriesarestillinthemitigation

stage,withcurrentaveragegrowthof1.3percent,whichistwopercentagepointsbelowtheir

pre-pandemicaverageforecastof3.3percent.Instarkcontrasttothesetrends,thevastmajority

ofadvancedeconomies(almostthreefourths)arestillinthemitigationstage,withcurrent

averagegrowthratesof1.1percent,whicharehalfoftheexpectedaverageratesforthese

economiesbeforethepandemic.Thisdivergencehighlightsthemulti-speednatureoftheglobal

economicrecovery,wheredevelopingcountriesareexperiencinghighergrowthdynamics

comparedtotheiradvancedcounterparts.

Figure1.Growthdynamicsin2024:Mitigating,muddlingthroughoracceleratingcompared

topre-pandemicprojections

Source:Authors’elaborationbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlookDatabase(October2019andApril2024).

Regardingthesecondtrendrelatedtotheaveragegrowthexpectedfortheperiod2024–2026,

thedataconfirmsamulti-speedpattern.Usingthesamecategoriesoflow,moderateandhigh

growth,Figure2showsthat40percentofdevelopingcountriesareexpectedtogrowatmore

than4percent(highgrowth),withanaveragegrowthrateof5.6percent.Additionally,49percent

ofdevelopingcountriesareprojectedtogrowatbetween2percentand4percent(moderate

growth),averagingagrowthrateof3.1percent,whereas13percent(19countries)are

anticipatedtogrowatlessthan2percent(lowgrowth),withanaveragegrowthrateof1.2

percent.Incontrast,thebulkofadvancedeconomies(around60percent)areprojectedtogrow

atanaveragerateof1.5percent,withonly14percent(12countries)experiencingmoderate

growthatanaveragerateof2.5percent.Notably,justtwoadvancedeconomiesareforecasted

toachievehighgrowthexceeding6percent.Thisfurtherillustratesthedisparitiesingrowthrates

betweendevelopingandadvancedeconomies.

Figure2.Multi-speedgrowthdynamicsover2024–2026

Source:Authors’elaborationbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlookDatabase(April2024).

Overall,developingcountries’averagegrowthratessignificantlyexceedadvancedeconomies’

projections—andtheyareanticipatedtoremainhigherinthelongertermupto2029,according

toIMFprojections—withdevelopingeconomiesinSouthAsia(SAS)andSub-SaharanAfrica

(SSA)expectedtohaveaveragegrowthratesabovethoseofallotherdevelopingregions.

Specifically,during2024–2026,averagegrowthinSASandSSAisforecastedtoreach5.2

percentand4.4percent,respectively,significantlyabovetheglobalaverageof3.2percent.In

contrast,regionssuchasEuropeandCentralAsia(ECA)andLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean

(LAC)areexpectedtogrowatrelativelyslowerrates,averagingbetween3.3percentand3.4

percent(Figure3).Thishighlightstheregionaldisparitiesineconomicgrowth,withSASandSSAemergingasthemostdynamicregionsamongdevelopingcountries.

Figure3.RegionalGDPgrowthdynamicsandprojections,2019–2026

Source:Authors’elaborationbasedonIMFWorldEconomicOutlookDatabase(April2024).

Whatdothesetrendsrepresentforpovertyreductionaroundtheworld?Toprojectglobal

povertyratesinto2026,weutilizebinneddistributionsofpercapitahouseholdincomeor

consumption($0.10bins),expressedin2017purchasingpowerparity(PPP).Thesedistributions

arederivedfromtheWorldBank’sPovertyandInequalityPlatform,coveringapproximately96

percentoftheglobalpopulationacross159countries.2Weprojectthesedistributionsforward

to2026byapplyingannualGDPpercapitagrowthratesfromtheApril2024IMFWorldEconomic

OutlookDatabase,adjustedforpopulationchangesandassumingan85percentdistribution-

neutralpassthroughrate.3Povertyheadcountratesarethencalculatedusinginternational

povertystandards(in2017$PPPperday):$2.15forextremepoverty;$3.65and$6.85

2ReconstructedthroughthePIPStatamodule(version0.9.5)bycomputingthecumulativeshareofthepopulationwith

householdpercapitaincomeorconsumptionbelowaseriesofthresholdsthatchangeinvalueevery$0.10adayper

person(2017PPP),startingfrom$0.10uptoamaximumvaluethatcovers99.9percentofthepopulation.Fromthese

cumulativeshares,individualswithineach$0.10binwereisolatedandthenassignedthemiddlevalueoftheirbinastheir

dailyamountofpercapitaincomeorconsumption.Thesizeofthepopulationwithineach$0.10binisusedasaweight.

3Forfurtherdetailsontheestimationofthispassthroughrate,seeLakner,C.,Mahler,D.G.,Negre,M.,&BeerPrydz,E.,

2022,‘HowMuchDoesReducingInequalityMatterforGlobalPoverty?’TheJournalofEconomicInequality,20:559–585.

representingthemedianpovertylinesoflower-middle-andupper-middle-incomecountries,

respectively.4

Figure4presentsourprojections.Despiteadownwardtrendsincethepandemicin2020,an

estimated7.7percentoftheglobalpopulationcouldstillbelivinginextremepovertyin2024,

definedaslivingonlessthan$2.15aday.Thisfigureisjustbelowthepre-pandemiclevelof8

percentandcoulddecreaseslightlyto7.2percentby2026.Giventhatonlyabout1percentof

globalpovertyisconcentratedinadvancedeconomies,theseresultssuggestthatdespitethe

recoveryofgrowth,withrelativelyhighratesamongdevelopingcountries,itisnotexpectedto

exertanoticeableeffectonloweringtheincidenceofpoverty.In2024,anadditional13.1percent

oftheworld’spopulationwillbelivingon$2.15to$3.65aday(hence,20.8percentlivingonless

than$3.65aday)and23.5percenton$3.65to$6.85aday(hence,44.3percentlivingonless

than$6.85aday).By2026,thesharesoftheglobalpopulationlivingonlessthan$3.65and

$6.85adayareprojectedtoreach18.9percentand42.5percent,respectively.Thesefiguresare

notdramaticallydifferentfromtheratesobservedbeforethepandemic,whichwere23.1

percentand47.4percent,respectively.

Figure4.Projectedsharesoftheglobalpopulationlivinginpoverty,2019–2026

Source:Authors’ownelaborationbasedonthesourcesandmethoddescribedinthetext.

4Jolli?e,D.M.,Mahler,D.G.,Lakner,C.,Atamanov,A.,&TettehBaah,S.K.(2022).AssessingtheImpactofthe2017PPPs

ontheInternationalPovertyLineandGlobalPoverty,PolicyResearchWorkingPaper9941,TheWorldBank.

Therearesignificantheterogeneitiesinhoweconomicgrowthiscontributingtopoverty

reductionacrossdifferentgroupsofcountries.Focusingonthechangesintheincidenceof

povertyat$2.15aday,ourestimatesindicateamixofprogressandchallengesinpoverty

reduction.Inthemulti-speedgrowthperiod(2024–2026),theincidenceofglobalpovertyis

expectedtoreduceby0.66percentagepoints.Thisreductionispredominantlydrivenbythe

decreasesinSouthAsia(SAS)andSub-SaharanAfrica(SSA),wherepovertyisprojectedto

decreaseby2and1.91percentagepoints,respectively.Incontrast,otherdevelopingregions

areexpectedtoseemoremodestreductions,rangingfrom0.07percentagepointsintheMiddle

EastandNorthAfrica(MNA)to0.34percentagepointsinEastAsiaandthePacific(EAP)(Figure

5a).

ThehigherreductionsinpovertyinSASandSSAareconsistentwiththerobusteconomicgrowth

ratestheseregionsareexperiencing—thisisparticularlynotableforSSA,wheretheanticipated

1.91percentagepointreductioninpovertyisasignificantimprovementcomparedtothe1.15

percentagepointincreaseobservedduringthepolycrisisperiod(2019–2023)(Annex).Giventhat

bothSASandSSApredominantlycompriselow-incomecountries(LICs),lower-middle-income

countries(LMICs),andleastdevelopedcountries(LDCs),itisexpectedthatthesegroupswill

seeconsiderablereductionsinpoverty,withLICsprojectedtoreducepovertyby2.41

percentagepointsandLMICsandLDCsby1.45and1.67percentagepoints,respectively.A

similartrendisobservedwhenusingahigherpovertylineof$3.65aday,withSASandSSAagain

expectedtoachievethemostsignificantreductionsinpovertycomparedtootherdeveloping

regions(Figure5b).

Figure5.Projectedaggregatechangesinpovertybyregionsandgroups

Source:Authors’ownelaborationbasedonthesourcesandmethoddescribedinthetext.

Usingthehigherpovertylineof$6.85aday,theresultsinFigure6indicatethattherelativelylow

achievementinglobalpovertyreductionisdrivenbysignificantreductionsinmiddle-income

countries,particularlyinSASandEAP.InSAS,theincidenceofpovertyisprojectedtodecline

by6.6percentagepoints,aligningwiththeregion’srobusteconomicgrowthrates.Similarly,EAP

isexpectedtoseeareductionof4.37percentagepointsdespiteitsaverageeconomicgrowth

rateof3.8percentfrom2024to2026,whichiscomparabletothegrowthratesof3.3percent

and3.4percentobservedinECAandLAC,respectively,suggestinganapparentlyhigher

poverty-reducingeffectinEAPrelativetootherregionswithsimilareconomicgrowthrates.

Figure6.Projectedaggregatechangesinpovertyat$6.85adaybyregionsandgroups

Source:Authors’ownelaborationbasedonthesourcesandmethoddescribedinthetext.

Ingeneral,theresultssuggestabroadtrendofdecliningpovertyratesmovinginto2024–2026,

reflectingagenerallypositiveimpactofrecoveredgrowth.However,theachievementin

translatingmoderate-to-higheconomicgrowthintosignificantpovertyreductionremainsvery

lowandheterogeneousacrosscountries.Specificallyfocusingoncountriesforwhichthereis

dataonbotheconomicgrowthandpovertyprojections(159countries,ofwhich128are

developingcountries),theaveragechangesintheincidenceofpovertybetween2023and2026

tendtobedisappointinggiventheprojectedgrowthrates.Amongthe12developingcountriesin

thecategoryoflowgrowth,theaverageGDPgrowthrateovertheperiodreaches1.45percent,

butthechangeinpovertyat$2.15adayisbarelynoticeable,withanaverageincreaseof0.09

percentagepoints.Thechangesinpovertyathigherpovertylinesaverage0.2and0.74

percentagepoints(Table1).

Amongthe63developingcountrieswithaGDPgrowthrateofbetween2percentand4percent,

theiraveragegrowthratereachesalmost3.1percent,yettheaveragechangeinpovertyremains

verylow,at0.19and0.49pointsforthelowestpovertylinesand1.41pointsforthe$6.85poverty

line.Finally,amongthe53countriesexperiencinghigheconomicgrowth,averaging5.6percent,

theaveragereductionsinpovertyarestilldisappointing,particularlythoseobservedatthe

lowestpovertylineof$2.15aday,reachingonly1.95percentagepointsduringtheperiod.These

resultssuggestthatsignificantdistributionalchallengesremainacrossdevelopingcountriesin

addressingtherelativestagnationinpovertyreductiondespiterecoveredandsubstantialrates

ofeconomicgrowth.

Table1.Projectedchangesinpovertyratesbyeconomicgrowthcategories,2024–2026

Source:Authors’ownelaborationbasedonthesourcesandmethoddescribedinthetext.Notes.Theaveragegrowthrate

(%)iscomputedasthesimpleaverageofthegrowthratesin2024,2025and2026.Thechangesinpovertyatdifferent

povertylinesarecomputedasthedifferencebetweentheincidencesobservedin2023and2026.

Moreover,in35developingcountries,despiteaforecastedaveragegrowthrateof2.89percent

during2024–2026,theincidenceofpovertyat$2.15adayisexpectedtoremainunchangedor

evenincrease,withanaveragechangeof0.19percentagepoints.Similartrendsareobservedat

higherpovertylines:in18countries,povertyratesat$3.65adayareexpectedtorisebyan

averageof0.40pointsdespiteanaverageeconomicgrowthrateof2.49percent,andin10

countries,povertyratesat$6.85adayareprojectedtoincreaseby0.42pointsgivenanaverage

economicgrowthrateofnearly2.1percent.Thesefindingsconfirmthatdistributional

challengesinsomecountriesareparticularlysevere,preventingthebenefitsofeconomic

growthfromreachingthepoorestsegmentsofthepopulation.Thesecasesareespecially

concentratedinSSA,withsignificantcontributionsfromSASandMNA.

Table2.Developingcountrieswithpositiveeconomicgrowthbutstagnantorincreasingpovertyrates,2024–2026

Source:Authors’ownelaborationbasedonthesourcesandmethoddescribedinthetext.Notes.Theaveragegrowthrate

(%)iscomputedasthesimpleaverageofthegrowthratesin2024,2025and2026.Thechangesinpovertyatdifferent

povertylinesarecomputedasthedifferencebetweentheincidenceobservedin2023and2026.

Fiscalandfinancialdivergences

Afteryearsofconsecutiveshockscoupledwithlimitedfiscalandfinancialcopingcapacity,

manydevelopingeconomies,especiallythepoorestandmostfragile,arefacingadim

developmentoutlook.Highdebtburdensworsenedbydepreciatedcurrencies,higherinterest

ratesandlowergrowthareamajorcontributortothedevelopmentoutlookascountriesare

devotingalargeandincreasingshareofrevenuetoservicedebtatthecostofgrowthand

welfare-enhancinginvestmentsinhealth,education,infrastructure,povertyreduction,climate

mitigation,etc.

Inthemediandevelopingeconomy,governmentdebtasashareofGDPhasincreasedbyalmost

20percentagepointsoverthepastdecade,nowreaching55.3percent,andnetinterest

paymentsasashareofrevenuedoubled,nowreaching8.6percent.5In49countries,netinterest

paymentsasashareofrevenueisnowhigherthan10percent,upfrom27countriesadecade

ago,andin10countriesitishigherthanonequarter.Worstaffectedistheworld’spoorestregion,

Sub-SaharanAfrica,whichaccountsfor45percentofcountrieswithinterestpaymentsin

excessof10percentand50percentofcountrieswithpaymentshigherthan25percent.

Indicatorsofdebtdistressanddefaultriskremainelevated.Fordevelopingeconomieswitha

sovereigncreditrating,61percent(54countries)havearatingbelow‘non-investmentgrade’,

andforcountrieswithdebtassessedundertheLIC-DSF,651percent(34countries)arerated

eitherinorathighriskofdebtdistress.Theseverityofthedebtsituationisalsoreflectedin

arrearsonexternaldebt,whichforthegroupofpoorest(heremeaninglowandlower-middle

5SeeUNDP’sdebtinsightsdatapageforthisandmore:h-in-developing-economies

6TheLow-IncomeCountryDebtSustainabilityFramework.

income)countriesin2022reachedanunprecedentedlevelof$101billion,upfrom$45billion

in2012.7

Whileglobalinterestrateshavebeentrendingdownwardsoverthepastsixtoninemonthsas

advancedeconomieshavegraduallybroughtdowninflation,theyarelikelytoremainelevated

inthenearfuture,especiallyforthelowest-ratedandpooresteconomies,comp