WTW-2024年全球固定收益計劃會計假設(shè)調(diào)查（英）-8正式版WN8

2024Globalsurveyofaccountingassumptionsforde?inedbene?itplansExecutiveSummaryJuly2024ExecutivesummaryThe2024GlobalSurveyofAccountingAssumptionsforDe?inedBene?itPlansisthe35thannualWTWsurveyofassumptionsselectedbymajorcorporationsfortheirde?inedbene?it(DB)plansaroundtheworld.Inbroadterms,accountingstandardsaimtoenableemployerstoapproximatethecostofanemployee’spensionorotherpostretirementbene?itoverthatemployee’sservicetenure.Anybene?itaccountingmethodthatrecognizesthecostofbene?itsbeforetheirpaymentbecomesduemustbebasedonestimatesorassumptionsaboutfutureeventsthatwilldeterminetheamountandtimingofbene?itpayments.Twokeyeconomicassumptionsinthedeterminationofbene?itcostsunderanaccountingstandardarethediscountrateandin?lation.UnderASC715,thereisanotherkeyeconomicassumption—theexpectedlong-termrateofreturnonplanassets(forfundedplans).Inmanycountries,fouradditionaleconomicassumptions,whicharesomewhatlinkedtoin?lation,canplayakeyrole:(1)rateofsalaryincrease;(2)rateofincreaseinpensions,bothindefermentandinpayment;(3)cashbalanceinterestcreditingrate;and(4)rateofincreaseinthesocialsecurityparametersre?lectedinthepensionbene?itformula.Wediscusstheseinourfullreport.Althoughthissurveymainlyexploreseconomicassumptions,wehaveagainshowndataregardingmortalityassumptions,whicharereceivingcloserattentionbecauseofincreasinglongevity.Theobservationsinthisreportre?lectdataatorneartheendof2023.ConsiderationshouldbegiventomarketmovementssinceDecember31,2023.Asdiscussionsaroundaccountingassumptionsstartforthe2024year-end,yourWTWconsultantwouldwelcometheopportunitytodiscusshowthatvolatilitymighthaveaffectedyourplans'liabilitiesandassets.KeyfindingsOurfullreport,whichrepresents1,100companieswithdatafrom47countriesandregions,includesthefollowingkey?indings:?In2023,therewasaglobaldeclineinbothcorporateandgovernmentbondyields.Speci?ically,governmentbondyieldsdecreasedin33outofthe42listedcountries.Additionally,halfoftheEurozonecountriesendedtheyearwithareductioningovernmentbondyieldsexceeding50basispoints.?As2023unfolded,economicuncertaintiespersisted;however,themainstockmarketsexhibitedresilience,maintaininglevelsclosetothoseobservedattheendof2022.Somemarketsevenshowedmodestimprovements.Movinginto2024,whilenotfullyrecoveringtoprevioushighs,mostmajorindicesdemonstratedcautiousoptimisminthefaceofongoingglobaleconomicchallenges.?Theyear-on-yearchangesofexpectedratesofreturnassumptionshaveremainedfairlystable,rangingfrom–28bpsto+58bps.DiscountratesInflationDiscountratesareusedtocalculatebene?itobligations,andtheserviceandinterestcostportionoftheemployeebene?itcost.Theassumptionforlong-termpricein?lationin?luencesothereconomicassumptionssuchas:?RateofsalaryincreaseWhileASC?1?doesnotexplicitlyde?inethequalityofthebondyields,mostplansponsorsbasetheirdiscountrateonAA-ratedbonds.IAS1?referstohigh-qualitycorporatebondyields,whichisgenerallyinterpretedtomeanAA-ratedorbetter.Theprimaryfocusforcorporationshasbeenplacedonlong-term,high-qualitycorporatebondsofappropriatedurationconsistentwiththebene?itobligation.?Rateofincreaseinpensions,bothindefermentandinpayment?Rateofincreaseinthesocialsecurityparametersre?lectedinthepensionbene?itformula?CashbalanceinterestcreditingrateforsomeplansFigure2showstheaveragein?lationassumptionforthe2?2?and2?2?expense.Forsomedevelopingcountries,in?lationhashistoricallybeenveryvolatile,whichhasledsomecompaniestoselectassumptionsonarealbasis(i.e.,netofin?lation).Contrarytothepreviousyear,in?lationrateshavebeenoveralldiminishedinlinewithmonetarypoliciesadjustments,exceptinJapanandSwitzerland.IntheU.K.andEurozonecountries,in?lationcurvesareoftenusedtoderiveaplan’sin?lationassumption.Wherethereisnodeepmarketincorporatebonds,itiscustomaryforASC?1?discountratestobebasedongovernmentbondsbutadjustedbysomelevelofriskpremiumtoapproximatecorporatebondyields.Bycontrast,IAS1?requirestheuseofgovernmentbondswithnoadditionalriskpremiuminsuchsituations;therefore,wepresentdiscountratesforbothaccountingstandardsseparately.Figure1showstheaveragediscountratesforbene?itobligationsattheendof2?2?and2?22,usingASC?1?andIAS1?.ThesetablesincludevaluesforcompanieswithDecember?1balancesheetdatesonly.Oursurveyresultsformajoreconomiesrevealareversalinthe2?2?discountrateupward-trend,withtheexceptionofJapan.Figure1.Discountratesforbene?itobligations—averagesAverages—ASC715Averages—IAS19202420235??0%3?74%??56%3?67%???3%4?85%5?5?%202420235?06%3?66%??5?%3?64%???3%4?79%5?36%CanadaGermanyJapanNetherlandsSwitzerlandUnitedKingdomUnitedStates4?8?%3?39%??75%3?35%??43%4?6?%5???%4?69%3?36%??69%3?47%??45%4?64%5?09%Forcountrieswithadeepmarketincorporatebonds,ithasbecomeincreasinglycommontomatchexpectedcash?lowsfromtheplaneithertoaportfolioofbondsthatgeneratessuf?icientcash?lowsortoanotionalyieldcurvegeneratedfromavailablebondinformation.ThisisacommonapproachinCanada,theEurozone,Japan,theU.K.andtheU.S.andisbecomingmorecommoninAustralia,Norway,SwedenandSwitzerland.Forthepurposesofthistable,2?2?representsthediscountrateassumptionusedforbene?itobligationsattheendof2?2?.Figure2.In?lationassumptions—averages2024??04%???4%??37%???3%???5%3??6%??69%2023??05%???8%??33%??3?%???9%3?30%??7?%CanadaGermanyJapanNetherlandsSwitzerlandUnitedKingdom*UnitedStates*Retailpriceindex?/2?2?GlobalSurveyofAccountingAssumptionsforDe?inedBene?itPlans—ExecutiveSummaryExpectedratesofreturnFigure3.Averageassetallocationbycountry0%Canada20%40%60%80%57%100%14%Theexpectedrateofreturnonassetsisthelong-termexpectationoftheannualearningsrateontheassetsofthepensionfund.UnderASC???,theexpectedreturnonassetsisacomponentoftheemployeebene?itcost.Expectedratesofreturnre?lecttheplansponsor’soutlookwhileconsideringtheplan’sassetallocation.25%GermanyJapan19%27%24%54%33%76%40%34%20%38%Figure3showstheaverageallocationsplitamongequities,bonds,property,cashandinsurancecontracts/otherinvestments.Theweightedaverageoftheexpectedlong-termrateofreturnoneachclassgivesanindicationoftheappropriateexpectedreturnonassetsassumption.Incomparingwithresultsfromlastyear’ssurvey,wewitnessedonlyminorchangesinassetallocationsacrosstheboard.Netherlands7%

15%SwitzerlandUnitedKingdom11%UnitedStates21%23%

14%49%34%Property43%EquitiesBondsCashInsurance/otherAssetallocationsarelikelytobedrivenbyseveralfactors,suchasfundedstatus,sponsorriskappetite,natureandmaturityoftheobligations,andlocalregulations.ThecompleteresultsshowthatsponsorsinAustralia,HongKongSARandNewZealandareholdingrelativelylargeequitypositions(morethan4??).Brazil,India,Indonesia,MexicoandTaiwanarecountrieswhereregulatoryinvestmentrestrictionsin?luencetheirassetmix.Figure4.Expectedratesofreturn—averages20245?25%???0%2?98%??8?%??59%5?19%6?2?%20235?17%??15%2?75%??61%??8?%??91%6?2?%CanadaGermanyJapanNetherlandsSwitzerlandUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesFigure4showstheaverageexpectedratesofreturnfor???4and???3expenseforallplansreportedunderASC???only.Theyear-on-yearchangesofexpectedratesofreturnassumptionsvaryevenwithindevelopedcountriesbothindirectionandmagnitudeofchange.Highlevelsofuncertaintyregardingboththe?ixed-incomeandequitymarkets,pairedwiththeuncertaintyofhowin?lationmayreacttomonetarypolicy,maybethedriversbehindtheseresults.Asexpected,thereisapositivecorrelationbetweenexpectedrateofreturnandtheamountofplanassetsheldinequitiesbyplansponsors.???4GlobalSurveyofAccountingAssumptionsforDe?inedBene?itPlans—ExecutiveSummary/?MortalitytablesFigure5.Lifeexpectancyofa60-year-oldmale051015202530Figure5showstheassumedlifeexpectancyatage6?forbothamalecurrentlyage6?andamalecurrentlyage??.Notethatsometablesaregenerational,whileothersarestatic.Thelatterdonotincludeanallowanceforimprovementinlifeexpectancyforfutureemployeecohorts;thus,lifeexpectancyatage6?isthesameforamalecurrentlyage6?andamalecurrentlyage??.29.2727.16NetherlandsSwitzerland28.4626.6028.4525.53GermanyThemajorityofsurveyedcountrieshaveimpliedlifeexpectanciesofbetween2?and??years.Theimpactofthedifferencesinthisassumptionwillvarydependingonthepaymentelectionassumptionbetweenlumpsumandannuity,theformoftheannuityandthemixofcurrentplanparticipants,amongotherfactors.27.5726.01UnitedKingdom27.5426.46CanadaUnitedStatesJapan26.9425.26Projectedbenefitsecurityratio24.5124.51Theprojectedbene?itsecurityratioistheratioofthecurrentmarketvalueofplanassetstotheplan’sprojectedbene?itobligation.Theprojectedbene?itobligationistheactuarialpresentvalueofallbene?itsattributedbythebene?itformulatoservicebeforethebalancesheetdate,includingbene?itsbasedonexpectedfuturesalaryincreases.UnderIAS??,thisisknownasthede?inedbene?itobligation.Lifeexpectancyatage60ofamalecurrentlyage40Lifeexpectancyatage60ofamalecurrentlyage60Figure6.Projectedbene?itsecurityratio—averages20241?110?701?180?9?0?931?130?9?20231?140??71?090?970?991?170?97CanadaGermanyJapanNetherlandsSwitzerlandUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesFigure6showstheaverageprojectedbene?itsecurityratiofor2?2?and2?2?,forfundedplansineachcountry.Asdetailedinthetablebelow,mostmajoreconomiesexperienceadecreaseintheirratios,mostlyattributedtolowerdiscountrates,despitetheoverallpositiveequitymarketperformance.Inthecomprehensivereportwhere??countriesareanalysed,changesinPBOsshowednearlyequalproportionsofincreasesanddecreasesintheirratiosoverthecourseoftheyear.6/2?2?GlobalSurveyofAccountingAssumptionsforDe?inedBene?itPlans—ExecutiveSummaryAboutthesurveyThe2024GlobalSurveyofAccountingAssumptionsforDe?inedBene?itPlansisthe35thannualWTWsurveyofassumptionsselectedbymajorcorporationsfortheirDBplansaroundtheworld.The1,100companiesincludedinthefullreporthavedisclosedassumptionsfortheirDBplans.Thereportre?lectsdataatorneartheendof2023.WhilethisexecutivesummarycoversonlyCanada,Germany,Japan,theNetherlands,Switzerland,theUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates,thefollowing47countriesarerepresentedinthefullreport:Thefullreportcoversaccountingassumptionsundervariousglobalstandards;forthisreport,53%ofthesurveyparticipantsreportunderASC715and47%underIAS19orothersimilaraccountingstandards.Thisissimilartothemixofparticipantslastyear.ArgentinaAustraliaAustriaMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayWecollectedretirementplandatausingasurveyformandvariousWTWdatabasesthatmaintainaccountingassumptions.Resultsinthefullreportareshownonaplan-levelbasis;therefore,someresultscoulddifferfromwhatisreportedonacompanylevel.BangladeshBelgiumBrazilPakistanPhilippinesPolandCanadaChileWTWbelievesthesesurveyshaveelicitedusefulinformation,andwewouldbepleasedtoprovideyouwithmoredetail.Asnapshotof?indingsforafewkeymarketsisavailableinthisexecu