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PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10891

TheAccumulationandUtilizationofHumanCapitalovertheDevelopmentSpectrum

FedericoRossiMichaelWeber

WORLDBANKGROUP

PeoplePracticeGroupHumanCapitalProject

September2024

PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10891

Abstract

Thispaperreviewshowhumancapitalisaccumulatedandusedovertheprocessofdevelopment.Ithighlightsthatdifferencesinworkerproductivityarethebyproductsofawidevarietyofinvestmentshappeningatdifferentstagesofthelifecycle,allsubjecttobarriersindevelopingcoun-tries.Moreover,theeffectiveuseofhumantalentintheproductionprocessisakeymediatoroftheeffectofhuman

capitalondevelopment.Itisalsoadriverofhumancapitalaccumulationitself.Inlightofthisinterplaybetweenaccu-mulationandutilization,thepaperdiscussesthepotentialroleofhumancapitalinfacilitatingtheadaptationtoglobalchallengessuchasclimatechange,demographictransitions,andrapidurbanization.

ThispaperisaproductoftheHumanCapitalProject,PeoplePracticeGroup.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebat

/prwp

.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatmweber1@.

ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent.

ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam

TheAccumulationandUtilizationofHumanCapitalovertheDevelopmentSpectrum

FedericoRossi*MichaelWeber?

Keywords:HumanCapitalAccumulation,HumanCapitalandGrowthJELCodes:J24,O15,I25

*UniversityofWarwick,DepartmentofEconomics,CoventryCV47AL,UnitedKingdom.Email:federico.rossi@warwick.ac.uk.

?WorldBankandIZA,Bonn.Email:mweber1@.

WearegratefultoAartKraayandOmarAriasforusefulcommentsanddiscussions.

1

1Introduction

Overthepastfewdecades,humancapitalhasbeenacentralingredientoftheprocessofeconomicdevelopment.TheXXthcenturyhasseenunprecedentedincreasesineducationalattainmentacrosstheworld,aswellasimportantimprovementsinthehealthandnutritionoftheglobalpopulation.Still,largecross-countrygapspersistinseveralformsofhumancapital,andagrowingliteratureinmacro-developmentarguesthatthesegapscontributeimportantlyto

differencesinthestandardsoflivingsbetweenrichandpoorcountries(Rossi,

2020)

.

Inwhichwaysishumancapitalaccumulatedacrossdifferentcountries?Through

whichchannelsdoeshumancapitalcontributetodevelopment?Howisthiscontributionlikelytochangeinthefuture?Thispaperprovidesareviewoftheacademicliteraturerel-evanttothesequestions.Ouraimistoofferacomprehensiveoverviewofthemultifacetedprocessesoftheaccumulationandutilizationofhumancapital,highlightingthekeychallengesthatcountriesatdifferentstagesofdevelopmentfaceinpromotingtheseprocessesandtherolesofpolicyinalleviatingthesechallenges.Ourworkcomplementsandaddstoseveralreviews

onhumancapitalandeconomicdevelopment,suchas

KlenowandRodrguez-Clare

(1997),

Caselli

(2010),

FlabbiandGatti

(2018),and

Rossi

(2020),whicharemostlyfocusedonthe

measurementofthecontributionofskillsforcross-andwithin-countryincomegaps.

Tosetthestagefortherestofthepaper,itisusefultostartfromadefinitionofhumancapital.

AcemogluandAutor

(2011)definehumancapitalas“anystockofknowledgeorchar

-acteristicstheworkerhas(eitherinnateoracquired)thatcontributestohisorherproductivity.”Twoaspectsofthisdefinitionareworthnoticingfromtheonset.First,humancapitalisaverybroadconcept,whichincludecognitiveskillsbutalsomanyothercharacteristicspotentiallyaf-fectingproductivity,suchashealthandphysicaltraits,personality,socio-emotionalskills,tacitandexplicitknowledge,culture,andsoon.Second,thedefinitionputsnorestrictionsonhowandwhentheserelevantcharacteristicsareacquired.Inotherwords,formaleducationisbynomeanstheonlywaytoaccumulatehumancapital;onthecontrary,humancapitalaccumulationcanstartinuteroandthentakeplacethroughoutthewholelifecycle,fromearlychildhoodtolateadulthood.

Indeed,Section2reviewsevidencesupportingtheideathathumancapitalgaps,bothwithinandacrosscountries,areduetodifferencesinavarietyofformsofinvestments.In-dividualsinlow-incomecountriesfacestrongerbarrierstohumancapitalaccumulationthrough-outthelifecycle,frombeforebirthuntiloldage,andthesebarriersreinforceeachotherduetodynamiccomplementaritiesbetweenhumancapitalinvestments.Theresultinghumancap-italgapsgowellbeyondcognitiveskills,andincludephysicalhealthaswellasavarietyofnon-cognitivetraits.Fromapolicyperspective,anarrowfocusoneducationalattainmentislikelytobeineffective,giventhevarietyofenvironmentsandstagesofthelifecycle(beyondschooling)wherehumancapitalisaccumulated.

Section3arguesthattheeffectsofhumancapitalaccumulationoneconomicdevel-

2

opmentarecruciallymediatedbythewayhumancapitalisutilizedintheproductionprocess.Wediscussthekeyforcesthatshapetheallocationofhumantalentacrosssectors,jobs,andfirms,highlightinghowthevaryingavailabilityofhigh-skilllaboraffectstheorgani-zationofproductioninrichandpoorcountries.Severalfrictionspreventanefficientallocationoftalentinpoorcountries,partiallyjeopardizingtheeffectivenessoftheaccumulationofin-vestmentsthathavebeentakingplaceoverthepastfewdecades.Moreover,humancapitalac-cumulationisitselfafunctionofopportunitiesforutilization,asnewgenerationshavestrongerincentivestoinvestinskillsthatcanbeutilizedproperlyintheproductionprocess.

Inlightofthisinterplaybetweenaccumulationandutilization,Section4concludesthepaperbyprovidinganoutlookonthefutureimportanceofhumancapitalforseveralmega-trendsthataretransformingthewayproductionisorganized.Wearguethathumancapitalwilllikelyplayanimportantroleinshapingtheeffectsofclimatechange,demographicchange,andurbanizationontheeconomy.Moreresearchisneededtoidentifythespecificskillsandtraitsthataremorerelevantforeachofthesetrends,aswellasthebestwaystoencouragetheiraccumulationandeffectiveutilization.Overall,thesetrendsarealllikelytoincreasethedemandforhighlyspecializedskills,whichleadsustospeculatethattheXXIcenturywillcontinuethehumancapitalera.

2Howandwhenishumancapitalaccumulated?

2.1ConceptualFramework

Humancapitalaccumulatesandmultipliesacrossdifferentstagesoverthelifecycle(Fig-ure

I)

.Theproductivecapacityofanindividualisshapedbytheskillsandtraitsacquiredinearlychildhood,duringadolescence(throughformalschoolingandotherchannels),duringtheworkingageperiod(throughtertiaryeducation,vocationaltraining,andlearningonthejob)andatolderages.Thisaccumulationprocessappliesbothtocognitiveskillsandotherformsofhumancapital,suchasnon-cognitiveskills,health,andculture.Alargeempiricalliteraturedocumentsthatthehumancapitalaccumulationprocessfeaturesdynamiccomplementarity,suchthattheskillsaccumulatedatonestageaffecttheproductivityoffurtherinvestmentsun-dertakenatlaterstages.Thisimpliesthatbarrierstohumancapitalaccumulationatearlystagesofthelifecycleareparticularlycostly.Inaddition,investmentsinhumancapital,suchasim-provinghealth,nutrition,andeducation,haveamultiplicativeeffectovertime,astheynotonlyenhanceanindividual’sproductivityandearningspotential,butalsobenefitfuturegenerationsbycreatingavirtuouscycleofdevelopment.

Ateachstage,theaccumulationofhumancapitalisdrivenbyexpectedreturnsandperceivedcosts.Bothreturnsandcostsdependontheeconomicenvironment,availableop-portunities,aswellasahostofexternalshocks,asrepresentedinFigure

I.

Forexample,in-dividualsmightchoosetoacquirelessschoolingwhenmostemploymentopportunitiesarein

3

sectorswithlowskillrequirements(lowreturn),whentheopportunitycostofchildlaborishigh(highperceivedcost),andwhenawardisruptstheeconomyandeducationalsystem(lowreturnandhighcost).Inaddition,theincentivestoaccumulatehumancapitaltodaydependonfutureaccumulationopportunities,giventhedynamiccomplementarityoftheseinvestments.Allthesefactorsarelikelytovarydramaticallyoverthedevelopmentspectrum,contributingtothecorrelationbetweenvariousformsofhumancapitalandeconomicdevelopment.

Thenextsubsectionsreviewtheexistingevidenceonsomeofthespecificfactorsaf-fectinghumancapitalaccumulationateachstagerepresentedinFigure

I,emphasizing

whetherandhowtheyvaryacrosscountries.Giventhebroadscopeintermsofthetypesofhumancapitalinvestmentsbeingconsideredandthegoalofkeepingacross-countryper-spective,thisreviewabstractsfromimportantissuesonthepracticalimplementationofeachoftheseinvestments,onwhichtheevidenceismorescatteredandcountry-specific

.1

Laterinthepaper(Section

3),thediscussionwillturntohowtheutilizationoftheskillsacquiredat

differentstagesshapesgrowthanddevelopment.

FigureI:HumanCapitalAccumulationovertheLifeCycle

2.2EarlyChildhoodandParentalInputs

Humancapitalaccumulationstartsbeforebirth.Anextensiveliteraturesuggeststhecourseoffetaldevelopmentandthequalityofthein-uteroenvironmentareimportantdeterminants

ofhealthconditionsandoverallproductivitylaterinlife(Barker,

1990;

AlmondandCurrie,

2011b)

.Toestablishcausality,severalpapersstudyrandomshocksaffectingpregnantmothers,

1Thisincludesimportantissuesonthedeliveryofformaleducation,suchastheadvantagesanddisadvantagesofprivateandpublicprovision.

4

suchaspandemics(Almond,2006),conflict(Lee,2014),orfamilybereavements(Persson

andRossin-Slater,2016),typicallyconcludingthatchildrenofmothersaffectedbynegativeshocksarecharacterizedbyhigherincidenceofvariousdiseases,lowereducationalattainmentandpoorerlabormarketoutcomesduringadulthood.Humancapitaldifferencesduetopre-birthconditionsplausiblycontributetoexacerbateinequalitieswithinandacrosscountries,asdisadvantagedhouseholdsaregenerallymoreexposedtonegativeshocksandpoornutrition.

Earlyexposuretopoornutritionanddiseasesimpairshumancapitalaccumulationovertherestofthelifecycle

(CurrieandVogl,

2013)

.Policyinterventionsthatprovidefoodsupplementstochildrenindevelopingcountriesareoftenassociatedwithlargegainsintermsofeducationalattainmentandcognitivedevelopment,asshownforexamplein

Fieldetal.

(2009)foraniodinesupplementationprograminTanzaniaand

Maluccioetal.

(2003)inthe

contextofarandomizedexperimentprovidinghigh-proteindrinksinGuatemala.Inaddition,

eradicationeffortsfordiseasessuchasmalaria(Lucas,

2010)andpneumonia(Bhalotraand

Venkataramani,

2011)areassociatedwithlife-timebenefitsintermsofschoolingandearnings

forcohortscoveredbytheseprogramsduringearlychildhood.Theseestimatesmightevenunderstatetheeffectsofimprovingnutritionandreducingexposuretodiseasesbecauseofmortalityselection,i.e.,theideathatreductionsinmortalitymightbeassociatedwithlower

averagehealthoutcomesifrelativelyunhealthyindividualsaremorelikelytodie(Currieand

Vogl,

2013)

.

Inaddition,thereisgrowingevidencethatpollutionexperiencedduringchildhoodisanotherkeydeterminantofhumancapitalformation.Severalstudiesshowthatenviron-

mentswithstrongexposuretocarbonmonoxide(Currieetal.,

2009),lead(Troesken,

2008),

andotherairborneparticulates(ChayandGreenstone,

2003)areassociatedwithhighinfant

mortalityandlowbirthweight.Theevidence(mostlyfromrichcountrieswherelongpanelsaremorereadilyavailable)suggeststhatthisearlyexposurealsohaslong-termconsequences.Forexample,

Almondetal.

(2009)findthatSwedishchildrenmoreexposedtoradioactive

falloutfollowingtheChernobyldisasterperformworseinsecondaryschool,while

Ferrieet

al.

(2012)documentadversecognitiveeffectsofearlyleadexposureforUSArmyenlistees

.Thesesourcesofdisruptiontohumancapitalformationarelikelytobeparticularlyimportantindevelopingcountries,wherelevelsofpollutionaremuchhigherthanwhatwasobserved

historicallyinthedevelopedworld(CurrieandVogl,

2013)

.

Alargebodyofworkestablishesthatskillsacquiredduringearlychildhoodhaveanimportantimpactonadultoutcomes

(AlmondandCurrie,

2011a)

.Akeyreasonforthisisthatinvestmentsinskillsfeatureimportantdynamiccomplementarities:acquiringskillsandpreservinghealthearlyonfacilitatesthefurtheraccumulationofskillslateroninthelifecycle

(HeckmanandMosso,

2014)

.Theinvestmentsidentifiedasimportantincludethequantity

andqualityofparentaltimewithchildren(DelBocaetal.,

2013),theparentalinvolvement

inchildren’seducation(HeckmanandMosso,

2014)aswellasthequalityofotherformsof

childcare(Fortetal.,

2020)

.Theseresultshighlighttheimportanceofactingearlytoclose

5

humancapitalinequalities,asinvestmentsinyoungadultslackingsuitablefoundationsofbasic

skillsarerelativelylesseffective(HeckmanandMosso,

2014)

.Theliteratureincludesseveral

evaluationsofhighlycosteffectiveinterventions;forexample,

Garcaetal.

(2020)showthat

twoearlychildhoodprogramsimplementedintheUnitedStatesin1970shadsizeablepositiveimpactsontheparticipants’education,health,andlabormarketoutcomesoverthelifecycle.Thebenefitsoftheseprogramsareevenlargerwhentheirintergenerationaleffectsaretaken

intoaccount(Daruich,

2018;

Garciaetal.,

2021)

.

Thisliteraturehighlightstheimportantroleplayedbynoncognitiveskills,suchasself-confidenceanddiscipline,whicharefoundtofostersubsequentcognitivedevelop-ment

(Cunhaetal.,

2010)

.Animplicationofthisisthatmentoringandguidancedirectedatfosteringcharacterandpersonalityskillsareoftenimportantingredientsofsuccessfulearlychildhoodinterventions;forexample,

Heckmanetal.

(2013)showthatmostofthepositive

impactofaUSpre-schoolprogramonadultoutcomesisduetoimprovementsinnoncogni-tiveskills.Importantly,noncognitiveskillsalsoappeartoberelativelymoremalleableduringadolescenceandearlyadulthood,suggestingthatremedialprogramstargetingtheseskillscanbesomewhateffectiveinclosingexistinggaps,eventhoughearlierinterventionsleadtolarger

returns(HeckmanandMosso,

2014)

.Moreover,accountingfortheeffectsonnoncognitiveskillsiscrucialtoproperlyevaluatetheeffectsofpoliciesinvolvingmonetarytransfersortax

creditsforparents(Morchio,

2022)

.

Whileitisbroadlyacceptedthatearlychildhoodinputscontributetowithincountryinequalities,theevidenceisscarceronwhethertheyarealsoimportanttoexplaincross-countrygaps.

Schoellman

(2016)showsthatlabormarketoutcomesofrefugeesarrivedin

theUSduringearlychildhoodareindependentoftheageofarrival;inotherwords,spend-inganextrayearinarichcountryenvironmentdoesnotsignificantlyboosttheformationofearlychildhoodhumancapital.Ontheotherhand,parentsinpoorcountriesplausiblyfacestrongerinformational,monetaryandmoregenerallypoverty-drivenconstraintsthatleadto

under-investmentinyoungchildren(Attanasioetal.,

2021)

.Relatedly,

DePhilippisandRossi

(2021)documentthatparentalinfluencecontributestocross-countrydifferencesinstandard

-izedtestperformance.Moreworkisneededtoevaluatethequantitativeimportanceofparentalinputsforoverallhumancapitalaccumulationandeconomicdevelopment.

2.3Adolescence

2.3.1FormalSchooling

Alargebodyofevidenceshowsthatformalschoolingisakeydeterminantofworkers’productivity.EstimatesofMincerianregressionsfromseveralcountriesshowthatanextrayearofschoolingisassociatedwithabout10%higherwages,withlimitedvariationbetween

richandpoorcountries(Casellietal.,

2016)

.Whileinprinciplethesecorrelationscouldreflectdifferencesinunobservedability,estimatesbasedoninstrumentalvariablestrategiessuggest

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thatthecausaleffectofschoolingisofasimilarmagnitude(Card,

1999)

.Moreover,schooling

isassociatedwithabroadvarietyofdesirableoutcomes,suchaslowercrime(Lochnerand

Moretti,

2004),highercivicparticipation(Milliganetal.,

2004),improvementsinchildhealth

(CurrieandMoretti,

2003),andhigherwellbeing(Easterbrooketal.,

2015)

.

Formaleducationalattainmentvariessubstantiallyacrossrichandpoorcountries.Figure

IIa

displaystheaverageyearsofschoolingoftheadultpopulationagainstGDPperworker.In2015,theaverageworkerinNorwaywasahigh-schoolgraduate(about12yearsofschooling),thecorrespondingaverageworkerinMozambiquehadnotcompletedprimaryed-ucation(about3yearsofschooling).Whilemostcountriesarerelativelyclosetouniversalen-rollmentinprimaryschools,largegapsremainforwhatconcernssecondaryschoolenrollment(Figure

IIb)

.Alargedevelopmentaccountingliteraturequantifiesthecontributionofthesegapsineducationalattainmentinexplainingcross-countryincomedifferences.Theemerging

consensusisthatthiscontributionislimited:evenlow-educatedworkersinrichcountriesaremuchricherthanhigh-educatedworkersinpoorcountries,leavinglittlespacefortheeduca-tionalcompositiontoaccountforincomegaps(see

Rossi,

2020,forareview)

.

FigureII:EducationalAttainmentandDevelopment

(a)AverageYearsofSchooling

AverageYearsofSchooling(2015)

15

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Notes:Panel(a)plotsaverageyearsofschoolinginthepopulationabove25againstlogGDPperworker(inPPPterms)in2015.Panel(b)plotsthenetenrollmentrateinprimaryandsecondaryschoolagainstlogGDPperworker(inPPPterms)in2015.Averageyearsofschoolingistakenfrom

BarroandLee

(2013),theenrollment

ratesarefromtheWorldDevelopmentIndicators,whileGDPperworkerisfromversion9.0ofthePennWorld

Tables(Feenstraetal.,

2015)

.

Morerecentwork,however,pointstolargegapsinlearningachievementsandeduca-tionalqualityacrosscountries,whichcompoundtheeffectofgapsinschoolingquantity.Figure

III

displaystheaveragelearningscoresofprimaryandsecondaryschoolstudentsfrom

theHarmonizedLearningOutcomesDatabase(Angristetal.,

2021a),acollectionofaverage

scoresinstandardizedtestsadministeredacross164countries,againstlogGDPperworker.

Studentsinrichcountriesvastlyoutperformtheirpeersinpoorcountries,conditionalonagivenlevelofeducationalattainment;asaresult,thevastmajorityoftheyounggenerationsinthedevelopingworlddonotachievetheskillsneededtoparticipateeffectivelyinmodern

economies(Gustetal.,

2024)

.Inaddition,

Singh

(2019)exploitspaneldatatoshowthatan

6

extrayearofprimaryschoolingisassociatedwithlargerlearninggainsinVietNamcom-paredtootherdevelopingcountries

.2

Morebroadly,largeincreasesineducationalenrollmentinmanydevelopingcountrieshavebeenassociatedwithstagnantorevendeclininglearning

achievementsbylevelofeducation(Pritchett,

2013;

LeNestouretal.,

2023),highlightingthe

challengesbroughtbyrapideducationalexpansions.Severalstudiesarguethatwhenqualitydifferencesareincorporatedinthemeasurementofhumancapital,itscontributioninaccount-ingforcross-countryincomegapscanbesubstantiallylarger(seeforexample

Schoellman,

2012;

Angristetal.,

2021b)

.

FigureIII:AverageLearningScoreandDevelopment

(a)Primary

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