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IncollaborationwithDeloitte

High-EmittingSectors:

ChallengesandOpportunitiesforLow-CarbonSuppliers

INSIGHTREPORT

SEPTEMBER2024

Images:GettyImages]

Contents

Foreword4

Executivesummary5

1Aviation10

1.1Currentemissionsprofile11

1.2TheFMCcommitment12

1.3Decarbonizationpathwaysinaviation12

1.4Supplierchallengesandopportunitiesinlow-carbonaviation13

2Shipping16

2.1Currentemissionsprofile17

2.2TheFMCcommitment18

2.3Decarbonizationpathwaysinshipping18

2.4Supplierchallengesandopportunitiesinlow-carbonshipping19

3Trucking21

3.1Currentemissionsprofile22

3.2TheFMCcommitment23

3.3Decarbonizationpathwaysintrucking23

3.4Supplierchallengesandopportunitiesinlow-carbontrucking24

4Aluminium27

4.1Currentemissionsprofile28

4.2TheFMCcommitment29

4.3Decarbonizationpathwaysinaluminium29

4.4Supplierchallengesandopportunitiesinlow-carbonaluminium30

5CementandConcrete32

5.1Currentemissionsprofile33

5.2TheFMCcommitment34

5.3Decarbonizationpathwaysincementandconcrete35

5.4Supplierchallengesandopportunitiesinlow-carboncement36

andconcrete

6Steel38

6.1Currentemissionsprofile39

6.2TheFMCcommitment40

6.3Decarbonizationpathwaysinsteel40

6.4Supplierchallengesandopportunitiesinlow-carbonsteel41

High-EmittingSectors:ChallengesandOpportunitiesforLow-CarbonSuppliers2

7Carbondioxideremoval(CDR)43

7.1Currentemissionsprofile44

7.2TheFMCcommitment45

7.3Decarbonizationpathwaysincarbondioxideremoval45

7.4Supplierchallengesandopportunitiesincarbondioxideremoval46

8Cross-sectorchallengesandopportunities48

8.1Lackofemissionsmeasurementmethodsandstandards50

8.2Availabilityandcostofinputs51

8.3Buyers’riskaversionandunfamiliaritywithdecarbonizedsolutions52

9Conclusion54

Contributors55

Endnotes57

Disclaimer

ThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorld

EconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.ThedocumentwascreatedincollaborationwithDeloitteConsulting,anentitywithintheDeloittenetwork.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereindonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofDeloitteandDeloitteshallnotbeliableforanylossinconnectionwiththisdocument.

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High-EmittingSectors:ChallengesandOpportunitiesforLow-CarbonSuppliers3

July2024

High-EmittingSectors:ChallengesandOpportunitiesforLow-CarbonSuppliers

Foreword

By2050,50%ofemissionsreductionsneededtoachievenet-zerogoalsareexpectedtocomefromtechnologiesnotyetavailableatscale.1

DilipKrishna

ChiefTechnologyOfficerSustainability,

Deloitte

RobJohannAdriaanvanRiet

ProgrammeHead,

ClimateActionand

FirstMoversCoalition,WorldEconomicForum

Buildingearlymarketdemandforbreakthrough

technologiesisthereforecriticaltocatalysetheir

commercialadoptionandtakestepstowardsglobaldecarbonization.Giventhescaleandcomplexityofthechallenge,strategicreformsandengagement

fromgovernments,regulators,investors,purchasingfirms,researchersandthepublicarecrucialtohelpacceleratethedeploymentoflow-carbonsolutions.

TheWorldEconomicForum,alongsideprivate

firmsandresearchinstitutionsestablishedthe

First

MoversCoalition

(FMC)toenabletheaccelerationofbreakthroughtechnologiesandsendcredible,

large-scaledemandsignalstocarbon-intensive

sectors.FMCmemberspledgetopurchase

largevolumesofgoodsthatmeetscience-basedemissionreductiontargets.AspartofthisFMC

effort,theForumcreatedthe

FirstSuppliers

Hub

(FSH)withstrategicsupportfromDeloitte

Consulting.TheFSHisaglobalrepositorywheresuppliersprovideinformationontheirlow-carbonprojectstofacilitateinformation-sharingand

offtakeagreements.Thisdatabaseconnectsusers

withapoolofsuppliersaswellasconnectingsupplierstoFMCmembers,policy-makersandfinancierslookingtogrowtheavailabilityoflow-carbongoods.

Suppliersareakeyplayerinthisecosystemas

theyareresponsibleforpiloting,developingand

scaling-upthelow-carbontechnologiesneeded

globally.Theyareinstrumentalindrivinginnovationandbringingthesetechnologiestomarket,therebyinfluencingdownstreamemissionsacrosstheglobalvaluechain.

InformedbythelessonslearnedfromtheFMCandFSH,thisreport,developedincollaborationwith

Deloitte,providesananalysisfromtheperspectiveofthesupplieronthevaluechain,decarbonizationpathways,andchallengesandopportunitiesfor

scaling-uptheirtechnologies.ThisreportalignswithFMC’sfocusoncarbondioxideremovalandsixothersectorsthatrepresent~25%ofglobalgreenhousegasemissions:aviation,shipping,

trucking,aluminium,cement/concreteandsteel.

High-EmittingSectors:ChallengesandOpportunitiesforLow-CarbonSuppliers4

Executivesummary

Thisreportbeginsbyanalysingthesupplychain,decarbonizationpathways,challengesand

opportunitiesfordecarbonizingtheheavy-emittingtransportandmaterialsectorsfromthesupplier’sperspective.Itproceedstodescribethefollowingthreecross-sectorobstaclesforsuppliersin

acceleratingthecommercializationoftheirlow-carbontechnologiesandproposespotential

solutionsforsupplierstonavigatethesebarriers:

–Lackofemissionsmeasurementmethodsandstandards:Supplierscanengagewithindustryconsortiumsandinternationalbodiestoadvocatefortheestablishmentofsector-specificcarbonaccountingmethodologies

andstandards,whichcanhelpsecurebuyersandfinancing.

–Availabilityandcostofinputs:Through

strategiclocationdecisions,collaborationsto

expandaccesstoinputs,andengagementwithgovernmentandfinancestakeholders,supplierscanhelpovercomechallengestoincreasethesupplyofnecessarymaterialsandimprovethecost-competitivenessoftheirsolutions.

–Buyers’riskaversionandunfamiliarity

withdecarbonizedsolutions:Supplierscanleverageinnovativecontractingmechanismstoshareormitigateofftakeagreementrisk

andeducatepotentialbuyersonvaluingtheirsolutionsbasedonholisticeconomicand

climateimpacts.

Thisreportalsohighlightsuniqueopportunities

acrosseachoftheFMC’ssevensectors,organizedaroundthreeheavytransportationsectors,three

heavyindustrysectorsandcarbondioxideremoval,asfollows:

–Aviation:Opportunitiestoscale-upsustainableaviationfuel(SAF)includeflexibletermsinSAF

offtakeagreementssuchas“book

andclaim”schemesandexpansioninemergingmarketsforfeedstocksupplywhilepreservingsustainability.

–Shipping:Adoptionofemission-reduction

incentivessuchascarbontaxesproposed

byindustryplayersandregionalentitiescan

acceleratebusinessdevelopmentforsuppliersoflow-carbonshippingfuels.

–Trucking:Battery-electricvehiclefleets

frommultiplecompaniescanusealternativechargingmodels,suchassharedcharging

infrastructure,tosharecostsandconsolidatepoweruse.

–Aluminium:Thedevelopment,scaling-upandbroadcommercializationofemissions-free

smeltingtechnologies,renewableenergyuseinelectrolysisandhydrogen,andcarboncapture,utilizationandstorage(CCUS)presentpotentialopportunitiesfordecarbonizationintheprimaryaluminiumsector.

–Cement/concrete:Non-fossilalternatives

suchascalciumsilicatecementandnaturalpozzolans2offerpotentialresiliencetosupplyshortagesandalignwithevolvingregulations.

–Steel:Governmentinterventionslikethe

EuropeanUnion’sCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism(CBAM)andtheUSDepartmentofEnergy’sfundingforindustrialdecarbonizationprojectscanhelpbalancecostdisparities

betweensuppliersandincentivizeadoption.

–Carbondioxideremoval(CDR):Exploring

utilizationmarkets,especiallythoseinvolving

long-termsequestration,cancomplement

geologicstoragesolutionsandfurtherenhancecarbonremovalefforts.

High-EmittingSectors:ChallengesandOpportunitiesforLow-CarbonSuppliers5

FIGURE1:Globalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions,bysector

3%

4%

2%

2%

6%

FMCsectors~25%

ofglobalGHGemissions

75%

8%

.Aviation

.Shipping

●Trucking

●Aluminium

●Cement

●Steel

●Othersectors

Source:

WorldEconomicF

orum.3

Basedontheinsightsfromthisreport,theWorldEconomicForumandDeloittearededicatedto

helpingacceleratetheadoptionanddemonstratingthefeasibilityoflow-carbontechnologiesin

heavy-emittingsectors.Relevantstakeholders,

includinggovernmentsandfinancialinstitutions,areencouragedtoembraceinnovativesolutionsformeaningfulemissionreductionsandexploretheresourcesavailablethroughtheFirstMoversCoalitionandFirstSuppliersHub.

High-EmittingSectors:ChallengesandOpportunitiesforLow-CarbonSuppliers6

TABLE1:FMCsectoremissions,pathways,opportunitiesandchallenges

GlobalshareofDeepdecarbonizationKeyopportunitiesKeychallenges

GHGemissions,pathwaysinlinewithFMC

bysectorcommitments

Aviation

–Highproductioncostsandpricepremium,comparedtoconventionalJetAfuel.

–Complexandcapital-intensivesupplychain,withsignificant

investmentrequiredtoscale-upproduction.

–SAFcompetingwithother

formsoftransportationforthesamefeedstock,particularlyinemergingmarkets.

–Sustainableaviationfuel(SAF)withlife-cycleassessment

(LCA)emissionsabatement

>85%(e.g.power-to-liquid,

Fischer-Tropsch,alcohol-to-jet,andHEFA)dependingontheproductionprocess.

–Nextgenerationnear-

–Growingpublicinterestin

reducingaviationemissions,drivingdemandforSAF.

–PolicyinterventionsandmandatesincreasingSAFdemandandproduction.

–Overcapacityinagricultural

areasinemergingmarkets,

offeringpotentialforfeedstockproductionforSAF.

–Collaborativeinitiatives(e.g.

JetZeroCouncil)bringing

togetherdifferentstakeholderstode-riskprivateinvestmentsandinnovatewaystoreduceaviationemissions.

~

3%

zeroemissionspropulsion

technologies,includingbattery-electric,hydrogenturbineandfuelcells.

–InternationalMaritime

Organizationandregional

bodieslikeEUsettingambitiousGHGreductiontargets.

–“Bookandclaim”schemesallowingshippingcompaniestocontributetoemission

reductionswithoutphysicallyusinglow-emissionfuels.

–Globalcarbontaxesandmass-balancemechanismstohelp

industryandregionalbodiesdriveinvestmentinlow-carbonfuels.

–Methanolproducedusing

low-carbonhydrogenand

sustainableCO2(biogenicorrecycledCO2,e.g.fromdirectaircaptureetc.).

–Ammoniaproducedwithlow-carbonhydrogenandnitrogen.

–Low-carbonhydrogenasacombustionfuel.

–Vesselscapableofusingzero-emissionfuels.

Shipping

2%

~

–Difficultiesforsuppliers

inobtainingfundingwith

appropriateriskappetiteandinvestmentsizetodevelop

andscale-uplow-emissionfuelprojects.

–Highcostofzero-emissionshippingfuels,comparedtofossilfuels,makingthemlessattractiveforinvestment.

–Gapsbetweensuppliers

andshippingcompaniesonacceptablevolume,offtakelengthandgreenpremiumlevels.

4%–BEV–Battery-electricvehicles

–Limitedandregion-

specifichydrogenrefuellinginfrastructure.

–HighcostsassociatedwithtransitioningtoBEVsandFCEVs.

–DifficultyforlogisticscompaniesmanaginglargeEVfleets

toobtainnecessarypower

allocationfromelectricutilities,duetofast-chargingneedsandhighenergyconsumption.

Trucking

~

–Establishmentofclear

–FCEV–Fuel-cellelectricvehicles(hydrogen)

–Zerotail-pipeemissionfuels

incentivesandregulationstoencouragedecarbonizationtechnologiesinmedium-andheavy-dutytrucking.

–Innovativebusinessmodelsliketrucking-as-a-service(TaaS)

andcollectivechargingfarmscanhelpoffsetthehighupfrontcostsoftransition.

–Proposedtaxcreditsandgrantsincountriespromoteinvestmentsinhydrogen

production,storageanddistribution,enhancingfeasibilityofFCEVs.

High-EmittingSectors:ChallengesandOpportunitiesforLow-CarbonSuppliers7

GlobalshareofDeepdecarbonizationKeyopportunitiesKeychallenges

GHGemissions,pathwaysinlinewithFMC

bysectorcommitments

Aluminium

2%

suchasinertanodesand

carbo-chlorinationcaneliminatesmeltingprocessemissions.

–Transitioningtorenewableenergyforelectrolysis

processescansignificantlyreduceemissions.

–Bypartneringwithsectoral

organizationstoprepare

procurement-ready

documentation,supplierscanhelpbuyersmakeinformeddecisions.

–Bycollaboratingwithwaste

managementsectorsand

governments,aluminium

manufacturerscansecure

recycledaluminiumand

increasesecondaryproduction.

Primaryaluminiumusing

breakthroughtechnologies,suchas:

–Electricorhydrogenboilers.

–Concentratedsolarthermal.

–Mechanicalvapourrecompression.

–Greenhydrogenorelectriccalcination.

–Inertanodes.

–Carbon-chlorination.

–CCUS(carboncapture,utilizationandstorage).

–Highcostofscaling-up

emergingrefiningtechnologieslimitsaccesstothese

technologiesinsomeregions.

–Maturenatureofaluminiumrecyclingleaveslessroomforimprovementandaddscompetitioninthematerialrecoverylandscape.

–Industryfaceschallenges

aligningongloballyacceptedstandardsanddefinitionsforlow-carbonaluminium.

–Emissions-freetechnologies

~

CementandConcrete

~

6%–Replacingclinkerwith

supplementarycementitiousmaterials(SCMs).

–Alternativechemistriesandprocessesthatreplace

limestone.

–Point-sourceCCUS.

–WithpotentialscarcityofSCMs,alternativeslikenon-fossilfly

ashesandnaturalpozzolanscouldbeused.

–Aslandscapeofclinker

alternativesevolves,suppliershaveopportunitytoshape

standardsandregulationstoaccommodatealternativechemistries.

–Supplierscancollaboratewithregionalvaluechainpartnersandregulatorybodiesto

developlocalizedapproachesandstandards.

–Highcostsofdecarbonizationandcompetitionforinvestmentwithothersectorspose

significantchallenges.

–Balancinghistoricallylocalindustryandtheneedfor

consistent,globalstandardsandcarbonaccounting.

–Asthesectortransitions,keyinputslikeSCMsmaybecomescarce,particularlyascoal

combustionandiron-makingblastfurnacesarephasedout.

High-EmittingSectors:ChallengesandOpportunitiesforLow-CarbonSuppliers8

Carbondioxideremoval(CDR)

N/A–DACCS–Directaircapture

withcarbonstorage.

–BiCRS–Biomasscarbonremovalandstorage.

–BECCS–Bio-energywith

carboncaptureandstorage.

–BCR–Biocharcarbonremoval.

–ERW–Enhancedrockweathering.

–Mineralization.

–Measurement,reporting

andverification(MRV)

systemsrunbytrustedthirdpartiescanassuresuppliersaboutthecredibilityand

durabilityoftheircarbonremovalefforts.

–CompaniesdemonstratingdemandfordurableCDR

solutionscanacceleratetheindustry’sgrowthanddrivedowncosts.

–Leveragingthecollective

purchasingpowerof

companiescanstimulatedemandandaccelerate

thecommercializationCDRtechnologies.

–Nascenttechnologies,lackofmatureMRVstandardsandlowsupportfrom

policy-makersresultinhighcoststhatlimitCDRuptake.

–Morerobustclimatepoliciestosupplementdemand-

sideeffortsandachievenecessaryscale.

–Effectivenessof

technologiescanvary

greatlybasedongeographicfactors(e.g.availability

ofcropland,biomass,renewablepower).

–CDRoftencriticizedfor

“l(fā)egitimizing”continued

emissionsandavoidanceofotherabatementsolutions.Transparent,responsible

behaviourfromCDRfirmsisnecessarytocounteractthisperception.

Keychallenges

Steel

–Changestosteelproductiontolowercarbonintensitywilllikelyincreasefinalcost.

–Thefirstfirmstobringlow-

carbonsteeltomarketare

likelytostruggletoselltheirproducts,evenwhiletheyde-

risklow-carbontechnologiesforcompetitors.

–Longlife-cycleandhigh

costsofmajorsteelmakingassetsmaycomplicate

transitionplans.

–Absenceofglobalstandardsanddefinitionscanmakeitdifficultforsupplierstoalignproductionprocessesandforbuyerstomakeinformeddecisions.

GlobalshareofGHGemissions,bysector

Keyopportunities

Deepdecarbonization

pathwaysinlinewithFMCcommitments

–Policymechanisms(e.g.EU’sCarbonBorderAdjustment

Mechanism,CBAM)canhelpbalancecostoftransitioningtolow-carbonsteelproduction

andprevent“carbonspillover”.

–Organizationssignallinga

strongdemandforlow-carbonsteelcanminimizeriskof

investmentsand

driveinnovation.

–Useofcleanhydrogenand

biogascanhelpreduce

emissionsinsteelproduction.

–Direct-reducedironelectricarcfurnace(DRI-EAF).

–Scrapsteelelectricarcfurnace(Scrap-EAF).

–Novelreducingagents(e.g.low-carbonhydrogenor

gasifiedbiomass).

–Othertechnologies,suchas

electrowinningtomeltDRIto

makeitcompatiblewithBOFs(DRI-melt-BOF),replacementofpulverizedcoalinjection(PCI)withbiomass-orhydrogen-

basedalternatives,etc.

8%

~

High-EmittingSectors:ChallengesandOpportunitiesforLow-CarbonSuppliers9

1

Aviation

Aviationiswelloff-coursefromhitting

theIEA’sNetZeroEmissionsby2050

scenario.Long-termcontractsarecriticaltoacceleratethesupplyofSAFneededtodecarbonizetheindustry.

High-EmittingSectors:ChallengesandOpportunitiesforLow-CarbonSuppliers10

1.1Currentemissionsprofile

Therecoveryoftheaviationindustryhastransportsectorswilllikelyleadtoanincrease

acceleratedpost-pandemicinbothitspassengerintheaviationindustry’srelativecontribution

andcargosectors.Bytheendof2022,thetoglobalemissions.Whiletheindustryhas

USmarketplacealoneofferedover1.52trillionpioneeredseveralabatementandmitigation

passengermilestocomplementaglobalapproaches,industry-wideadoptionratesand

marketplaceofmorethan250billioncargotonne-supplierproductioncapacitiesofalternative

kilometres(CTKs)oftransportedgoods.4,5Thesolutionsindicatethataviationiswelloff-course

aviationindustryhasalargecarbonfootprintdueforthe100milliontonnes(Mt)ofCO2peryearNet

toitsdependenceonfuelconsumptionandalackZeroEmissionsby2050(NZE2050)scenarioof

ofviablealternativestojetengines,especiallyfortheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA).7Without

long-haulflights.interventions,theemissionsintensityofaviation

fuelisexpectedtoremainconsistentlyhighat88

Althoughaviationaccountsforonly3%ofglobaltonnesofcarbondioxide-equivalent(tCO2e)per

greenhousegas(GHG)emissions,itsgrowthistonneoffuel,whileothersectorsseeadecreasing

outpacingothertransportsectors.6Additionally,business-as-usual(BAU)scenarioduetoefficiency

significantcarbonreductionsforecastinothergains(seeFigure2).

FIGURE2:Aviationemissionsintensitytrajectory,BAUscenario(tCO2e/tofaviationfuel)

CO2emissionsintensity

100

88888888888888

90

80

70

60

50

40

20

10

0

2019202020212022203020402050

Source:

WorldEconomicForum

8

.

30

High-EmittingSectors:ChallengesandOpportunitiesforLow-CarbonSuppliers11

TheFMCcommitment

FMCAviationcommitment

Airlinesandairtransportcompanies:

By2030,wewillreplaceatleast5%ofourconventionaljetfueldemandwithsustainableaviationfuels(SAF)thatreducelife-cycleGHGemissionsby85%ormorewhencompared

withconventionaljetfueland/orzero-carbonemittingpropulsiontechnologies.

Airfareandairfreightpurchasers:

By2030,wewillpartnerwithairtransport

operatorstoreplaceatleast5%ofconventionaljetfueldemandforourairtransportwith

sustainableaviationfuels(SAF)thatreduce

life-cycleGHGemissionsby85%ormorewhencomparedwithconventionaljetfueland/or

zero-carbonemittingpropulsiontechnologies.

*FMCin-scopetechnologiesinclude:

–Sustainableaviationfuels(SAF)withlife-cycleassessment(LCA)emissionsabatementof>85%.

–Nextgenerationnear-zeroemissions

propulsiontechnologies,includingbattery-electric,hydrogenturbineandfuelcells.

–OthertechnologieswithLCAGHGreduction>85%.

–ThesecommitmentsdonotincludeSAFwithLCA<85%,fossiljetfuelsandcarbonoffsets.

Fulldetailsofthecommitmentcanbefound

here

.

1.3

Decarbon