金融學(xué)（第四版）課件：The Stock Market

TheStockMarket

2SpeculativeBubblesInthelate1990s,stockpricesunderwentdramaticincreasesIntheearly2000s,stockpricesfelldramaticallywhenfalteringeconomies(hereandabroad)couldnotsupportthehighstockpricesofthe1990sAtthesametime,morehouseholdshavebecomeparticipantsinthestockmarket3SpeculativeBubblesWhenstockpricemovementsaregreat,stockmarketshaveagreaterpotentialforspeculativebubblesthatcannotbemaintainedaspeculativebubbleisanirrationalincreaseinpricesaccompaniedbyeuphoricexpectationswhenparticipantsrealizethebubblecannotbemaintained,theyliquidatetheirpositionscausingpricestofalllowerthantheywouldhavebeenwithoutthebubble4SpeculativeBubblesWhenthebubblebursts,theresultingfinanciallossesmayspillovertotherealsectorpossiblycausingunemploymentorarecession5TheAnatomyofStocksFirmsissuesharesofstockwhentheyneedtoraiselong-termfinancialcapitalusuallyforinvestmentspendingAshareofstockrepresentsequityinacorporationandentitlestheownertoashareofthecorporation’sprofitsStockmaybepreferredstockorcommonstock6PreferredStockOwnersofpreferredstockreceiveafixeddividendtowhichtheyareentitledbeforeownersofcommonstockreceiveanythingsimilartotheinterestpaymentthatabondholderreceivesdividendsmustonlybepaidtopreferredstockholdersifthefirmearnsaprofit(unlikeinterestwhichmustalwaysbepaid)dividendpaymentsarenottax-deductible(unlikeinterestpayments)7CommonStockCommonstockholdersreceiveavariabledividendafterthepreferredstockholdershavebeenpaidandretainedearningshavebeensetasideretainedearningsareprofitsnotdistributedtostockholdersandareusuallyusedtofundinvestmentprojects8TheAnatomyofStocksIfacompanybuysbackitsownstockanddoesnotresellit,thestockisretiredafterstockisretired,theremainingoutstandingsharestendtoappreciateinvalueCommonstockholdershavevotingrightswithinthefirmwhereaspreferredstockholdersdonot9TheAnatomyofStocksInvestmentbankersusuallymarketnewsharesofstockssometimesemployeesmaybynewsharesofstocksdirectlyfromthecompany,thusbypassingtheinvestmentbankPreviouslyissuedstocksaretradedonorganizedexchangesoroverthecounter10TheValueofOutstandingSharesofDomesticallyissuedStocksince198211TheAnatomyofStocksAllcompaniesthatissuepubliclytradedsharesofstockareregulatedbytheSecuritiesandExchangeCommission(SEC)theSEChasbroaddisclosurerequirementstoprotectinvestorsthefinancialconditionofthecorporationinformationaboutkeypersonnelanychangesthatwouldbeimportanttostockholders12StockOfferingsAninitialpublicoffering(IPO)iswhenacorporationissuesstockpubliclyforthefirsttimeAsecondarystockofferingisanofferingofnewlyissuedsharesbyafirmthatalreadyhaspubliclyheldshares13StockOfferingsTobringnewsharestothemarket,acorporationmustregisterwiththeSECSince1982,theSEChasallowedfirmspracticeshelfregistrationthefirmcanregisteraquantityofsecuritiesandsellthemoveratwo-yearperiodratherthanatthetimethesharesareregisteredavoidsthecostsofseveralregistrationprocessesallowsfirmstotakeadvantageofmarketconditions14TheStockMarketsWhenmostpeoplethinkaboutthestockmarket,theythinkaboutWallStreetHowever,the“stockmarket”includesmanydifferentorganizedexchangesandanationwidenetworkofbrokersanddealerswhobuyandsellstockoverthecounter15TheStockMarketsInrecentyears,thevolumeandvaluesofstockstradedhaveincreaseddramaticallyLargeinstitutionalinvestorshavecometodominatethemarketpensionfundsinsurancecompaniesmutualfunds16TheStockMarketsTheexpandeduseofcomputerstoexecutetradeshasaccommodatedthegreatervolumeoftradingandhasfacilitatedanincreaseinprogramtradingbyinstitutionalinvestorsallowsinstitutionalinvestorstopre-programcomputerstobuyorsellalargebasketofstocks17TheStockMarketsDespitetheriseininstitutionaltrading,ahigherpercentageofhouseholdshaveastakeinthestockmarketretirementfundsdirectownershipmutualfunds18TheStockMarketsAllelseequal,ownershipofstocksentailsmoreriskthanownershipofbondsorotherfinancialassetseventhoughthereisahigherexpectedreturnwithstockownership,thereisnoguaranteethattheexpectedreturnwillberealized19TheStockMarketsInvestorscanborrowfundstobuystockthemarginrequirementisthepercentageofastockpurchasethatcanbeborrowedthecurrentmarginrequirementis50%andwassetbytheFedandappliestoinitialpurchasesonlyTheNewYorkStockExchangeandtheNationalAssociationofSecuritiesDealersrequirememberfirmstoimposeaminimum25%maintenancemarginrequirementminimumamountofequityinthecustomer’saccountrelativetothemarketvalueofstock20TheStockMarketsThemid-1990ssawunprecedentedcapitalinflowsinU.S.marketstopurchaseU.S.equitiespartoftheongoingglobalizationoffinancialmarketsonlylifeinsurancecompaniesandmutualfundspurchasedmoreU.S.securitiesthannon-U.S.purchasers21Netnon-U.S.Purchasesof

U.S.Stocks22TheNewYorkStockExchangeTheNewYorkStockExchange(NYSE)istheworld’slargestmarketfortradingsecuritiesabout2,800companiesincludingmorethan470non-U.S.companiesForastocktobelisted,thecorporationmustapplytotheexchangeandmeetseveralcriteriadealingwiththesizeandnumberofshareholders23TheTenLargestCompaniesTradedontheBigBoard,September200424TheNewYorkStockExchangeTheNYSEisahighly-visibleauction-typemarketwheremembers(actingasagentsforothers)buyandsellsharesofstockeachmemberhaspurchasedaseatontheexchangethepriceofaseatisdeterminedbysupplyanddemandthebenefitsofmembershipincludedirectparticipationinstocktradingandchargingcommissionstocustomersfortradingstocks25TheNewYorkStockExchangeEachfirmwhosestockislistedisassignedtoasinglepostwhereaspecialistinthatstockmanagestheauctionprocessmembersoftheNYSEbringalllargebuyandsellorderstothefloorordersarethenfunneledtotheappropriateposttheforcesofsupplyanddemanddeterminestockprices26TheNewYorkStockExchangeWhenanewpriceisreached,aclerkrecordstheinformationandsendsitoutoverthetickerprovidesaconstantstreamofstocksymbolsandpriceseachsymbolconsistof3orfewerlettersandrepresentsthestockofaparticularcorporation27TheNewYorkStockExchangeForsmallorders(<3,000shares),thebrokeragefirmroutestheordertotheDesignatedOrderTurnaround(DOT)systemacomputersystemthatsendsbuyorsellorderstoaspecialist’spostwherethetransactionisautomaticallyexecutedthevastmajorityoftradesaretransactedthroughtheDOTsystem28TheNewYorkStockExchangeOnOctober19,1987,theDowJonesIndustrialAverage(astockindex)fellby508points(morethan20%)largestdeclineinhistorymarketonlyfell12.8%onOctober28,192929TheNewYorkStockExchangeInresponsetothe1987crash,certainreformswereinstitutedcircuitbreakerswereintroducedtotemporarilyhaltmarkettradingifpricesfallbysomespecifiedamountduringthehalt,marketmakershaveachancetotakenewpositionsandgathernewinformationcircuitbreakersalsolimitaformofprogramtradingcalledindex-arbitragetradinginvolvespurchasingabasketofstockswhilesimultaneouslysellingafuturesagreementofthesamebasket30OtherExchangesTheAmericanStockExchangeover660corporationsRegionalexchangesthatprimarilytradestockslistedontheNYSEarelocatedinBoston,Chicago,SanFrancisco,andPhiladelphiaManyforeigncountriesalsohavestockexchanges31TheOver-the-CounterMarketTheover-the-countermarketiscomposedofthousandsofsecuritiesdealerslocatedalloverthecountrytransactionsareexecutedoverthetelephoneorviacomputerdealersbuyandsellsecuritiesatpubliclyquotedpricesmarketisregulatedbytheNationalAssociationofSecuritiesDealers(NASD)32TheOver-the-CounterMarketAbout3,000ofthecompanieswhosestocksaretradedoverthecounterarealsomembersoftheNationalAssociationofSecuritiesDealersAutomatedQuotationSystem(NASDAQ)theworld’sfirstelectronicstockmarketstocksaretradedonanadvancedcomputersystemthatprovidesimmediateinformationaboutpricesandthenumberofsharestraded33TheOver-the-CounterMarketTobelistedonNASDAQ,acompanymustmeetseveralrequirementsincludingsalesvolumeNASDAQtradesmoresharesperdaythananyotherU.S.stockmarketNASDAQisfacingcompetitionfromanotherelectronicstockexchange,ArcaEx34StockMarketIndexesStockmarketindexesmeasuretheoverallperformanceofthestocksincludedintheindexcanbeusedtoevaluatehowwellaspecificstockormutualfundisperformingrelativetothestocksrepresentedintheindexalmost100indexesmonitorstockprices35StockMarketIndexesTheDowJonesIndustrialAverage(theDow)measuresmovementsinthestockpricesofthe30largestcompaniesintheU.S.oldestindexinusetoday(introducedin1896)anunweightedaverageofthesumofthedailyclosingprices(adjustedtotakeaccountoftheeffectsofstocksplitsandstockdividends)36TheCompaniesthatMakeUptheDowasofApril8,200437StockMarketIndexesTheDowJonesTransportationAverageiscalculatedusingthepricesof20airline,trucking,andrailroadstocksTheDowJonesUtilityAverageiscalculatedusingthepricesof15gas,electric,andpowercompanystocksTheDowJones65CompositeIndexiscalculatedfromthepricesofallofthestocksintheother3DowJonesindexes38StockMarketIndexesTheStandard&Poor’s500(S&P500)isaweightedindexofpricesof500broad-basedcorporationsweightedbytheirrelativevaluesTheNewYorkCompositeIndexisaweightedaverageofthemarketvalueofallofthestockstradedontheNYSEalsoreportssubgroupindexesforindustrial,transportation,utilityandfinancestocks39StockMarketIndexesTheWilshireEquityIndexValue(theWilshire5000)isaweightedindexofthevalueofallofthestockslistedontheNYSE,allstocksontheAmericanStockExchange,andallover-the-counterstockstradedbyNASDAQmembersbroadestmeasureofU.S.stockmarketactivity40StockMarketIndexesTheNASDAQCompositeIndexisaweightedindexthatmeasureschangesinpricesofallstocktradedbytheNASDAQsystem41TheValueoftheDJIA,S&P500,NYSECompositeandNASDAQsince198542DailyAverageofStockMarketVolumeandValuesTradedsince198543TheStockMarketand

MutualFundsMutualfundsarecompaniesthatpoolthefundsofmanyinvestorsandtheninvestinseveralhundredoreventhousandsofstocksformanyinvestors,mutualfundsofferlessriskandgreatersafetythanindividualstocksbecauseofdiversificationinaddition,mutualfundcompaniesofferhighlytrainedmanagers44TheStockMarketand

MutualFundsAnindexedmutualfundholdsthesamebasketofsecuritiesthatarerepresentedinanindexsuchastheS&P500ortheWilshire5000usuallyhavelowcostsbecausethereislittletradingandthefundsdonothavetobeactivelymanaged45TheStockMarketand

MutualFundsExchange-tradedfunds(ETFs)aresharesofasecuritythatmirrortheholdingsandtheperformanceofanindextheyresultfromasecuritiesfirmdepositingintoafundalargebasketofstocksthatreflecttheholdingsoftheindexthesecuritiesfirmreceivesablockofETFsharesthatarethenofferedtoinvestors46TheValuationofStocksThepriceofashareofstockshouldbeequaltothepresentvalueoftheexpectedfuturecashflowsthatthesharewillgeneratecashflowsshouldincludebothdividendsandretainedearnings47TheValuationofStocksIfweassumethatthestockwillbeheldindefinitelyintothefuture,thenthecurrentpriceofthestockcanberepresentedaswhereCnistheexpectedcashflowinyearnanddisthediscountrate48TheValuationofStocksIfweassumethatthefirmwillearnaconstantcashflow(sothatC1=C2=…),thenthepricecanbesimplifiedtoIfwecanestimatethecashflowandthediscountfactor,wecansolveforthecurrentvalueofashareofstock49TheValuationofStocksIfthereisagreementaboutexpectedcashflows,thenthestock’spriceshouldconvergetothatvalueintherealworld,thereareoftenverydivergentopinionsaboutfuturecashflowsthisiswhysomeindividualsarebuyingaparticularstockwhileothersaresellingit50TheValuationofStocksForanystock,thereisarequiredreturn(d)thatisneededbyinvestorswhopurchasethatstockthisistheequilibriumreturnthatisbasedonarisk-freereturnplusariskpremiumassociatedwithowningthestocktherisk-freereturnisusuallymeasuredbythelong-termgovernmentbondrate51TheValuationofStocksTheriskpremiumhastwopartsamarketriskpremium

basedonhistoricaldatathatshowshowmuchonaveragetheownershipofstockspaysovertherisk-freereturnafirm-specificriskpremiummeasuredbyacoefficientcalledbeta(β)measurestheoverallsensitivityorvariabilityofthestock’sreturntochangesovertheentirestockmarket52TheValuationofStocksAccordingtothecapitalassetpricingmodel,thereturnneededtoownashareofstockiswhereRfistherisk-freereturn,βisbetaforthisparticularstock,andRmisthemarketriskpremium53TheValuationofStocksTheassumptionofaconstantcashflowislimitingsince(hopefully)cashflowswillgrowovertimeIfweassumecashflowstogrowataconstantpercent(g)thenwecanestimatethevalueofashareofstockas54SummaryofMajorPointsInrecentdecades,pricesofstockshavebecomemorevolatiletheFedisconcernedaboutinflationordeflationinstockpricesbecauseofitspotentialtocauseunemploymentorinflationortoaffectthesolvencyoffinancialinstitutionsandthefinancialsystem55SummaryofMajorPointsStocksrepresentownershipinacorporationpreferredstockpaysafixeddividendwhilecommonstockmaypayavariableornodividendundernormalcircumstances,stocksareliquidfinancialassetsthatmaybetradedinorganizedmarketsoroverthecounter56SummaryofMajorPointsInstitutionalinvestorsinthestockmarketareprimarilyinsurancecompanies,pensionplans,andmutualfundsprogramtrading