2024-2025年亞太地區(qū)商品和服務(wù)貿(mào)易展望

ASIAPACIFICTRADEAND

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/2025ii

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/2025iii

Acknowledgements

ThisBriefwaspreparedbyNikitaShahu,underthedirectsupervisionandco-draftingeffortsofWitadaAnukoonwattaka,EconomicAffairsOfficerintheTradePolicyandFacilitationSection(TPFS)oftheTrade,InvestmentandInnovationDivision(TIID)intheUnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforAsia-Pacific(ESCAP).RuoyingChenprovidedresearchassistance.TheBriefwasdevelopedundertheoveralldirectionofYannDuval,Chief,TPFS,TIID,andRupaChanda,Director,TIID.ThebriefwasformattedbyNikitaShahuandthecoverdesignwaspreparedbyNucharatTuntiwigit.

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/2025iv

Contents

Highlights 1

Background 4

1.Merchandisetrade 4

1.1Tradegrowth 4

1.1Intra-regionalandintra-subregionaltrade 7

1.2Neartermprospectsformerchandisetrade 8

2.Servicestrade 11

2.1Tradegrowth 11

2.2Intra-regionalandintra-subregionaltrade 13

2.3Neartermprospectsforcommercialservicestrade 14

References 17

Listoffigures

Figure1.NominalgoodsandservicestradeinAsia-Pacific,2015-2025 2

Figure2.MerchandisetradeinAsia-Pacific,2020-2025 4

Figure3.SubregionalrealmerchandisetradeperformanceinAsia-Pacific,2020-2025 6

Figure4.CommercialservicestradeinAsia-Pacific,2020/2025 11

Figure5.SubregionalnominalservicestradeperformanceinAsia-Pacific,2021/2025 13

Listoftables

Table1.TradepartnersofAsiaandthePacific(2024) 7

Table2.Subregionalmerchandiseexportsharebyexportdestination(2024) 7

Table3.ChangeinmerchandisetradepartnersofAsiaandthePacificbysubregion,

2019-2024 8

Table4.MerchandiseexportsandimportsgrowthforselectedAsia-Pacificeconomies,

2024/2025(Baselinescenario) 10

Table5.Subregionalservicesexportsharebyexportdestination 14

Table6.CommercialservicesexportsandimportsgrowthforselectedAsia-Pacific

economies,2024/2025(Baselinescenario) 16

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/20251

Highlights

Merchandisegoodstrade

?Merchandisetradeexpandedin2024,drivenbyabroaderrecoveryinglobaleconomicactivity.Globally,realexportsandimportsgrewby1.8%and2.2%,respectively.AsiaandthePacificoutperformedglobalaverages,withexportsincreasingby3.4%andimportsby3.6%.Notably,globaltradegrewby1.6%forexportsand2.9%forimportsinnominalterms,whiletheAsia-Pacificregionregisteredanincreaseof2.2%and4.1%,respectively.

?In2024,theAsia-Pacificregion'smerchandisetradesurplusdecreasedto2.3%oftotalmerchandisetrade,downfrom3.2%in2023.Thisreductionoccurreddespitecontinuedexportgrowthasimportvalueincreasedatafasterrate.Stronggrowthinimportdemandwasduetoregionaleconomicrecovery,boostedconsumerspendingandinvestmentwhileexportgrowthwasslowerowingtomoderateglobaleconomicexpansion.1

?AsiaandthePacific'sshareofglobalnominalexportsandimportsroseslightlyin2024to38.9%and36.7%,upfrom38.7%and36.2%in2023,reflectingstrongertradegrowthcomparedtotheglobalaverage.

?In2024,mostAsia-Pacificsubregionssawreal-termtradeexpansionalthoughinvaryingdegree.South-EastAsia(SEA)(5.8%),SouthandSouth-WestAsia(SSWA)(3.6%),EastandNorth-EastAsia(ENEA)(3.2%),andNorthandCentralAsia(NCA)(0.9%)recordedexportgrowthinrealterms.Conversely,thePacificsubregionexperiencedaslightdeclineinexports.Imports-wise,NCAwastheonlysubregiontoseeacontractioninmerchandiseimports.

?Intra-regionaltraderemainssignificant,accountingfornearly60%oftheregion'stotalexportsin2024.Ongoingtradereconfigurationisevident,withnotableshiftsbetween

2019and2024.ENEAeconomieshavestrengthenedtradetieswithAsia-Pacificpartnersoutsideitssubregion,whileslightlyreducingexportstotheUnitedStates.Meanwhile,sanctionsandsupplychainadjustmentshavedrivenNCA

1AccordingtotheprojectionsbyInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF),globalGDPgrowthis

forecastedat3.2%for2024and3.3%for2025.Thesefiguresarelowerthanthepre-pandemicaveragegrowthrateof3.8%observedbetween2000and2019.Fordetails,pleasereferto

/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-

2024.

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/20252

Figure1.NominalgoodsandservicestradeinAsia-Pacific,2015-2025

20

UnitedStatesdollars—Trillions

15

10

5

0

12.1

2.8

14.5

13.1

11.5

3.4

3.1

2.8

14.0

3.5

18.7

17.217.518.0

/

4.4

13.4

4.1

3.8

3.3

/

2.8

19.3

4.8

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025(p)

TradeinGoods

TradeinServices

5.5

UnitedStatesdollars—Trillions

5

4.5

4

3.5

3

2.5

Source:DataareestimatedbyESCAP,basedonWTOannualmerchandiseandcommercialservicestradedata(accessedNovember2024from

/

).Datafrom2024onwardsareestimatedbyESCAP,usingEIU(

)databaseforselectedeconomies.

Note:(p)=projections.

economiestoredirectexportsfromtheEUtowardsSSWAandENEA,signalingasignificantrealignmentinNCA'stradepatternstowardsAsia.

?In2025,merchandisetradeintheAsia-Pacificregionisexpectedtocontinueitsupwardtrajectory(figure1).AllAsia-Pacificsubregionsareexpectedtoseecontinuedexportrecoveryin2025.GrowthratesareanticipatedtobehigherinSEAandENEAcomparedtothePacificandNCA.Importsareprojectedtogenerallyalignwithexports,thoughgrowthinSSWAmayoutpaceexports,andNCA’simportsmaystabilizeunderfavorableconditions.

?However,tradegrowthfacessignificantuncertainties,includingslower-than-expectedrecoveryinmajoreconomiesandpotentialtradewars.Thesechallengescoulddampenthegrowthprospectscomparedto2024levels,withdevelopingAsia-Pacificmerchandiseexportsparticularlyatrisk.AccordingtoWTO(2024)projectionsexportgrowthintheAsia-Pacificregionin2025mayamounttoone-thirdofthegrowthrecordedin2024.Giventheserisks,realmerchandiseexportsintheregionareexpectedtogrowbetween2.7%and3.5%in2025,withdevelopingeconomiesexperiencingamoremodestgrowththandevelopedeconomies.Importgrowthisexpectedtoalignwithexportsbutremainrelativelymoreresilient.

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/20253

Commercialservicestrade

?Thevalueofcommercialservicestradecontinueditsrecoveryin2024.Globally,commercialservicesexportsandimportsgrewby5.8%and5.5%,respectively.TheAsia-Pacificregionoutperformedtheglobaltrends,withexportandimportgrowthratesof8.6%and6.2%,respectively.

?Theregion’srobusttradegrowthin2024wasprimarilydrivenbytherecoveryoftravelservices,whichcontributed20.5%oftheregion’sexportsofcommercialservices.Additionally,significantexportsgrowthwasobservedinconstruction,goods-relatedservices,chargesfortheuseofintellectualproperty,andpersonal,cultural,andrecreationalservicessectors,whichincreasinglyencompassdigitallydeliveredservicecategoriessuchasaudiovisualcontent,healthservices,andeducationservices,amongothers.

?In2024,allAsia-Pacificsubregionsexperiencedexpansioninservicestrade,thoughatvaryingrates.ThePacific(13%)recordedthehighestexportgrowth,whileNCA(5.3%)hadthelowest.ExportsfromENEA,andSSWAgrewatcomparablerates.Forimports,ENEAledthegrowth,followedbySSWA,SEA,andthePacific.Similartomerchandisetrade,NCAwastheonlysubregiontoexperienceaslightdeclineinservicesimports.

?Basedonthelatestdataavailable,intra-regionaltradeaccountsforapproximately20%oftheregion’stotalservices,withabout11%linkedtoENEAmarkets,primarilydrivenbyChina'sroleasthelargestimporteroftourismandtravelservices.Theservicetradepatternreflectsastrongorientationtowardglobalmarkets.Additionally,technologicaladvancesindigitallydeliverableserviceshaveenabledtheregiontodiversifyitstradedestinationsbeyondneighboringcountries.

?In2025,theAsia-Pacificregion'scommercialservicesexportsandimportsareprojectedtogrowby8%and10.9%innominalterms,respectively.Thisgrowthisexpectedtobedrivenbyexpansionsinthetravelsectoranddigitallydeliverableservices,withdevelopedeconomiesanticipatedtooutperformothersintheregion.

?ExportgrowthratesareanticipatedtoincreasemodestlyforENEAandthePacific,whileexportsintheothersubregionsareexpectedtocontinuegrowingatdiminishedrates.Intermsofimports,allsubregionsareforecastedtoexperiencehighergrowthin2025,particularlyENEA.

?Similartomerchandisetrade,servicestradegrowthprospectsarealsoexposedtodownsiderisks.Whilemoreresilient,commercialservicestrademayfaceindirectdownwardpressuresfromdisruptedmerchandisetradethatmayreducedemandinsectorssuchaslogistics,finance,andtravel,addingcomplexitytotheregion’soverallservicestradeoutlook.Additionally,heightenedtradetensionscancreatepolicyuncertainty,discouragingtradeandinvestmentinserviceindustries.

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/20254

Background

In2024,theAsia-PacificregionrecordedarealGDPgrowthof4.0%,exceedingtheglobalgrowthrateof3.2%(IMF,2024).Inparticular,developing,andemergingAsianeconomiessawrobustgrowthabove5%ledbyIndia,Indonesia,andVietNam2.

1.Merchandisetrade

1.1Tradegrowth

Merchandisetradeexpandedin2024,supportedbyabroaderrecoveryofglobaleconomicactivity.Globalexportsandimportsincreasedby1.8%and2.2%inrealterms,andby1.6%and2.9%innominalterms.InAsiaandthePacific,tradegrowthoutpacedtheglobalaverage.ExportsinAsiaandthePacificroseby3.4%inrealtermsand2.2%nominally,consistentwiththedecreasingexportpriceindexobservedinselectedmajorAsia-Pacificexporters,particularlyChina.Meanwhile,importsincreasedby3.6%inrealtermsand4.1%nominally(figure2b).

Figure2.MerchandisetradeinAsia-Pacific,2020-2025

(a)Tradevalues-exports,imports(left-axis)andtradebalance(right-axis)

$12.0

Tradevalue(inTrillionsUSD)

$10.0

$8.0

$6.0

$4.0

$2.0

$0.0

Tradebalance(as%oftotalmerchandisetrade)

5.0%4.5%4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%

4.40%

$9.7

387%

$9.9

$9.2

$9.0

.

$9.0

$8.9

$8.8

$9.4

$8.5

$8.3

3.51%

3.23%

$7.0

$6.4

2.31%

2.31%

$7.9

$8.0

$7.2

$8.3

$7.3

$8.6

$8.1

$8.1

$7.6

$7.4

$7.3

$6.7

202020212022202320242025(p)

mmRealExports

NominalExports

Nominaltradebalance(as%oftotaltrade)

mmRealImports

NominalImports

2TableA4.EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomies:RealGDPinIMFOctober2024issueat

/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-

2024.

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/20255

Figure2(Cont.).MerchandisetradeinAsia-Pacific,2020-2025

(b)Growthrates-exportsandimports

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

29.3%

27.9%

4.1%

2.2%

9.6%

8.8%

12.9%

10.7%

0.6%-0.9%

-0.4%-1.3%

4.1%

3.4%

3.5%

-3.4%

3.4%

-0.6%-1.8%

-6.3%

o-6.4%

o-7.0%

6.8%

6.8%

202020212022202320242025(p)

OExports-Nominalgrowth●Exports-Realgrowth

Imports-NominalgrowthImports-Realgrowth

Source:DataareestimatedbyESCAP,basedonWTOannualmerchandisetradedata(accessedfrom

/

).Datafrom2024onwardsisestimatedbyESCAP,usingtheEIUdatabase(

)forselectedeconomiescovering95.1%oftradeinAsiaandthePacific.

Note:(p)=projections.

Owingtotheregion’srapidtradegrowthcomparedtotherestoftheworld,theAsiaandthePacificshareofglobalnominalexportsandimportsin2024increasedslightlyto38.9%and36.7%,respectively,upfrom38.7%and36.2%inthepreviousyear.

Theregionremainedanetexporter(figure2a-greenline),butitstradesurplusasapercentageoftotalmerchandisetradereducedto2.3%from3.2%in2023.Thiswasdrivenbystronggrowthinimportdemand,fueledbyregionaleconomicrecovery,increasedconsumerspending,andheightenedinvestments,combinedwithslowerexportgrowthduetomoderateglobaleconomicexpansion.

In2024,mostAsia-Pacificsubregionsrecordedrealexportgrowth(figure3a).South-EastAsia(SEA)ledwitha5.8%expansion,drivenbystrongelectronicsexportsfromVietNam(14.1%)andMalaysia(7.9%).SouthandSouth-WestAsia(SSWA)saw3.6%growth,withsignificantcontributionsfromIndia(5.1%)andBangladesh(6.3%).EastandNorth-EastAsia(ENEA)grewby3.2%,withHongKong,China(7.2%)andtheRepublicofKorea(4.4%)exceedingthesubregionalaverage,largelydrivenbyChina’sexportgrowth(3.1%).North

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/20256

andCentralAsia(NCA)experiencedmodestgrowthof0.9%,primarilydrivenbytheRussianFederation’smildexportgrowth(0.5%).MeanwhileexportsfromthePacificdeclinedfurtherby2.1%comparedto2023.Notably,theslowgrowthinNCAandthePacificreflectstheirrelianceonminingandcommodityexportstoChina3,whoseeconomyhasnotyetfullyrecoveredtopre-pandemiclevels.

Subregionalimportperformancesin2024weremorevariedthanexporttrends(figure3b).Importgrowthreboundedstrongly(10.3%)inSEA,partlydrivenbyintermediateinputsforexports,whichrecoveredfromthepreviousyear.4ImportsgrewmodestlyinthePacific(5.2%),SSWA(2.7%),andENEA(1.9%).Incontrast,NCAexperiencedadeclineinimports(-3.1%).

Figure3.SubregionalrealmerchandisetradeperformanceinAsia-Pacific,2020-2025

(a)Exports(b)Imports

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

202020212022202320242025

(p)

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

202020212022202320242025

(p)

EastandNorth-EastAsiasouth-EastAsia

NorthandcentraIAsia

southandsouth-westAsia

pacific

Source:DataareestimatedbyESCAP,basedonWTOannualmerchandisetradedata(accessedfrom

/

).Datafrom2024onwardsisestimatedbyESCAP,usingtheEIUdatabase(

)forselectedeconomiescovering95.1%oftradeinAsiaandthePacific.

Note:(p)=projections.

3SeeexportpatternsbysubregionfromESCAPTradeInsights(IssueNo.32)availableat

/handle/20.500.12870/7558.

4SeeimportpatternsbysubregionfromESCAPTradeInsights(IssueNo.32)availableat

/handle/20.500.12870/7558.

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/20257

1.1Intra-regionalandintra-subregionaltrade

In2024,intra-regionaltradeaccountedfor53.4%and55.6%oftotalmerchandiseexportsandimportsintheregion,respectively(table1).Thishighlightsthesignificanceofintra-regionaltradepartners.Chinacontinuedtorepresentacrucialmarketfortheremainingregionaleconomies,accountingfor23.0%oftheregion’s(excludingChina)totaltrade.Thisrepresentsanearlyequaltradingsharecomparedtotheregion’snexttwomostimportanttradingpartners(theEUandtheUS)combined.OutsideAsiaandthePacific,theEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStatesstillrepresentedsizablemarkets,eachaccountingfor13.6%and13.7%oftotalregionalexports,respectively.Imports-wisetheEuropeanUnionplayedamoreprominentrolethantheUnitedStates,sourcing10.2%oftotalregionalimports,comparedtoUS’s7.2%,respectively.

Table1.TradepartnersofAsiaandthePacific(2024)

(Percentageoftotaltrade)

Source:ESCAP.CalculatedusingmirrortechniqueswithDirectionofTradedatafromIMFdatabase(accessedfrom

/

).

Acrosssubregions,intraregionaltradevariessignificantly,rangingfrom25%ofexportsinSouthandSouthwestAsia(SSWA)tojustbelow80%inthePacific(table2).Aportionofthistradeinvolvesexchangeswithinsubregions.Unevenmarketpotentialanddifferencesinregionalvaluechainlinkagescontributetothevaryingimportanceofintra-subregionaltrade,withthePacificrecordingthelowestshareat5.1%andEastandNortheastAsia(ENEA)thehighestat25.4%in2024.

Table2.Subregionalmerchandiseexportsharebyexportdestination(2024)

(Percentage)

Source:ESCAP.CalculatedusingDirectionofTradedatafromIMFdatabase(accessedfrom

/

).Missingdataissupplementedwiththenearestavailableyear'sdata.

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/20258

Between2019and2024,geopoliticalshocksandongoingstructuralchangesledtonoticeablereconfigurationsintradingpatterns(table3).ThemostsignificantshiftwastheredirectionofexportsinNorthandCentralAsia(NCA)awayfromtheEuropeanUniontowardAsia.Thischangewasprimarilydrivenbysanctions,promptingexportsfromNCA,particularlytheRussianFederation,toshifttowardSouthandSouthwestAsia(SSWA),mainlyIndia,andtoalesserextent,EastandNortheastAsia(ENEA),particularlyChina.OutsideNCA,othersubregionshavestabilizedormodestlyreducedtheirrelianceonintraregionalmarkets.ThistrendreflectseffortstodiversifyexportsawayfromENEA,especiallyChina,drivenbystructuralchangesandgeopoliticsinfluencingsupplychaindiversification.However,theimpactofthisdiversificationonoverallregionaltradeshareshasbeenmodest,astheredistributedtradeflowshavecreatedopportunitiesforotherregionalpartnerstoabsorbthediversifiedexports.Notably,ENEAeconomieshavestrengthenedtradetieswithAsia-Pacificpartnersoutsideitssubregion,whileslightlyreducingexportstotheUnitedStates.

Table3.ChangeinmerchandisetradepartnersofAsiaandthePacificbysubregion,2019-2024

(Percentagepoints)

Source:ESCAP.CalculatedusingDirectionofTradedatafromIMFdatabase(accessedfrom

/).

Missingdataissupplementedwiththenearestavailableyear'sdata.

1.2Neartermprospectsformerchandisetrade

MerchandisetradeintheAsia-Pacificregionisprojectedtomaintainitsgrowthmomentumin2025.Realmerchandiseexportsintheregionareexpectedtogrowbetween2.7%and3.5%in2025,withdevelopingeconomiesexperiencingmoremodestgrowththandevelopedeconomies.Inthebaselinescenario,thedevelopedAsia-Pacificregionisprojectedtoseeexportsgrowby4.5%andimportsby6%in2025.Incontrast,thedevelopingAsia-Pacificregionisexpectedtoachieveexportgrowthofapproximately3.2%to3.5%(table4).China'sexportgrowthisexpectedtoslowfurther,contributingtothemoremodestoverallgrowthinexportsfordevelopingAsia-Pacificeconomies.Meanwhile,arobusttraderecoveryinJapanisanticipatedtobeakeydriverofthefastergrowthinthedevelopedAsia-Pacificregion.Allsubregionsareexpectedtocontinueexportrecoveryin2025(figure3).RealexportgrowthinSEAandENEAisanticipatedtoberobust,rangingfrom3%to6%.Incontrast,realexportgrowthinthePacificandNCAmayremainmodest,impactedbyChina’sslowrecoveryindemandforcommodityimports.InSouthandSouth

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/20259

WestAsia,realexportsareexpectedtostabilizeasIndia,thesubregion’smaincontributor,mayexperienceaslowdowninexportgrowthdueglobaleconomicconditions.

Importsareexpectedtogenerallyalignwithexporttrends.However,importgrowthinSSWAisanticipatedtooutpaceexportgrowthduetostrongdomesticdemand,particularlyinthesubregion'slargereconomies.Additionally,importsbyNCAmaystabilize,providednofurthereconomicsanctionsareimposedontheRussianFederationandthemilitaryconflictaffectingthesubregiondoesnotescalate.

ItisimportanttonotethatthesebaselineprojectionsforAsia-Pacifictradegrowthin2025remainhighlyuncertain.Aslower-than-expectedrecoveryinmajoreconomies,includingChina,coupledwiththeincreasingprevalenceofprotectionistpoliciescouldsignificantlyhindertheregion'seconomicandtradeperformance.ThepotentialimpositionofsubstantialandunpredictabletariffbarriersbytheUnitedStates,alongwithpossibleretaliatorymeasures,presentsadditionalriskstoeconomicandmerchandisetradegrowth.

Thesepolicyuncertaintiesareexpectedtohavethegreatestimpactonmerchandiseexportgrowth,giventhattheUnitedStatesservesasasignificantexportmarketfortheregionandhasstrongRegionalValueChainlinkageswithChina,whichhasbeentheprimarytargetofincreasedtariffs(Anukoonwattaka&Lobo,2019).

Thesechallengescoulddampengrowthprospectscomparedto2024levels,withdevelopingAsia-Pacificmerchandiseexportsparticularlyatrisk.AccordingtoWTO(2024)projections,exportsgrowthintheAsia-Pacificregionin2025maybereducedtoone-thirdofthegrowthrecordedin2024.Giventheserisks,realmerchandiseexportsintheregionareforecastedtoincreaseby2.7%intheworst-casescenarioand3.5%inthebaselinescenario,withdevelopingeconomieswitnessingslowergrowthcomparedtodevelopedeconomies.Importgrowthisexpectedtoalignwithexportsbutremainrelativelymoreresilientduetosustaineddomesticdemandasimportdemandispartiallysupportedbyongoingdomesticneeds.

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/202510

Table4.MerchandiseexportsandimportsgrowthforselectedAsia-Pacificeconomies,2024/2025(Baselinescenario)

Source:DataareestimatedbyESCAP,basedonEIUDatabaseaccessedfrom

.

Notes:(p)=projections.

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/202511

2.Servicestrade

2.1Tradegrowth

Commercialservicestraderecoveredin2024,drivenprimarilybythestrongreboundintravelandtourismservices,whichhavenearlyreturnedtopre-pandemiclevels.5Globally,in2024,commercialservicesexportsandimportsgrewby5.8%and5.5%,respectively,withAsiaandthePacificoutperformingat8.6%forexportsand6.2%forimports(figure4).

Atthesectorallevel,travelservices,comprising20.5%ofexportsand24.7%ofimports,experiencedsubstantialgrowthatratesof27.5%and26.2%in2024.Theremarkablegrowthwasprimarilydrivenbytherecoveryinglobalandregionalimportsoftravelservices,particularlyfromChina,whichincreasedby38%in2024.AmongthemostbenefitedeconomieswereJapan,Australia,andTürkiye,whichrecordedstronggrowthintravelserviceexportsat42%,18%,and13%,respectively.Meanwhile,transportservicesaccountedforthelargestindividualsector,representing21.3%ofcommercialservicesexportsand27.4%ofimportsintheAsia-Pacificregionin2024.Thesectorbenefitedfromthebroadereconomicandtraderecovery,withexportsgrowingby9.7%andimportsby2.7%in2024.Othersectorsposteddynamicexportgrowth,includingconstruction(17.1%),goods-relatedservices(9.4%),chargesfortheuseofintellectualproperty(7.4%),

Figure4.CommercialservicestradeinAsia-Pacific,2020/2025

(a)Tradevalues-exports,imports,andtradebalance

Tradevalue(inUSD)Trillions

$2.4$2.2$2.0$1.8$1.6$1.4$1.2$1.0

Tradebalance

0.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.5%-2.0%-2.5%-3.0%-3.5%-4.0%-4.5%-5.0%

-0.68%

-1.41%

$2.2

$2.1

$1.9

$1.6

$1.7

$1.4$1.3

-2.05%

-1.81%

-0.73%

-4.62%

$1.9

$2.2

$2.4

$2.0

$2.5

202020212022202320242025

(p)

ExportsImports——Tradebalance(as%oftotaltrade)

5AsofJuly2024,internationaltouristarrivalshavereached96%ofthepre-pandemiclevels(UNTourism,2024).

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/202512

Figure4(Cont.).CommercialservicestradeinAsia-Pacific,2020/2025

(b)Growthrates-exportsandimports

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

10.9%

14.9%16.6%

--22.6%15.0%

8.6%

10.0%

6.2%

7.5%

-20.3%-21.7%

8.0%

202020212022202320242025(p)

ExportsgrowthImportsgrowth

Source:DataareestimatedbyESCAPbasedonWTOannualcommercialservicestradedata(accessedfrom

/

).Datafrom2024onwardsareestimatedbyESCAPusingEIUdatabase(

)

forselectedeconomiescovering98.8%oftradeinAsiaandthePacific.Note:(p)=projections.

andpersonal,cultural,andrecreationalservices(7.1%)whichareincreasinglyincludingdigitallydeliveredcategoriessuchasaudiovisualcontent,healthservices,andeducationservices.Thesesectorsalsocontributedtooveralltradegrowth.However,insuranceandpensionservicesexperiencedamoderatedeclineof4.5%.

AsiaandthePacific’srobusttradegrowthdroveanincreaseintheregion’sshareofglobalserviceexportsandimportsto25.7%and28.4%in2024,upfrom25.0%and28.2%in2023.Theregion'stradebalancealsoimproved,withthetradedeficitnarrowingto0.7%oftotalcommercialservicestrade—animprovementfromthe1.8%deficitrecordedthepreviousyear.

Atthesubregionallevel,thePacificpostedthehighestexportgrowthof13%in2024(figure5).ExportsfromSouth-EastAsia(SEA)(9.4%),EastandNorth-EastAsia(ENEA)(8.4%),andSouthandSouth-WestAsia(SSWA)(7.4%)continuedtogrowstronglyin2024,whileexportsfromNorthandCentralAsia(NCA)(5.3%)alsopickedup.Attheeconomylevel,manyeconomiesincreasedtheirserviceexportvaluesin2024(table6).ThePacific’sexportgrowthwasprimarilydrivenbydouble-digitexportexpansioninAustralia(15%),followedbyNewZealand(9.8%).SeveralsmallPacificIslandnations,includingVanuatu,Samoa,andTonga,alsorecordedremarkablegrowth(rangingfrom11%to24%),albeitfromarelatively

ASIA-PACIFICTRADEANDINVESTMENTTRENDS2024/202513

Figure5.SubregionalnominalservicestradeperformanceinAsia-Pacific,2022/2025

50%40%30%20%10% 0%-10%-20%-30%-40%

202020212022202320242025

(p)

(a)Expor