2025年外匯展望：全球貨幣市場分析與趨勢

RoyalBankofCanada-Singapore

Branch

15

DariaParkhomenko,CFA

FXStrategist

1(212)618-7857

Daria.Parkhomenko@

RBCCapitalMarkets,LLC

GeorgeMoran

Associate

+44(0)2070298167

George.Moran@

RBCCapitalMarketsLimited

10

5

0

-5

-10

MXN,BRLoutperformance;CHF,CNYunderperformance

USD/CAD:Peakrevisedhigher.End-Q22025now1.45(prior1.43).End-20251.40(1.41).+6560136626

USD/CNY:Profilerevisedhigher.End-Q12025now7.33(prior7.29).End-20257.55(7.25).Alvin.Tan@

Thiscommunicationhasbeen

preparedbyRBCCapitalMarkets

FXTrading/Salespersonnelfor

yourinformationonlyandisnot

aresearchreportpreparedby

theRBCCapitalMarketsresearch

department.Thisdocumenthas

notbeenpreparedinaccordance

withlegalrequirementsdesigned

topromotetheindependenceof

investmentresearch.

CurrencyReportCard:2025FXOutlook

17December2024

ForecastsGlobalFXStrategy

December2024lStrategy

+442070297077

ThreemonthforecastreturnsElsa.Lignos@

RBCEuropeLimited

MostbullishMostbearish

BRLCOPGeorgeDavis,CMT

MXNCHFTechnicalStrategist

PLNCNY1(416)-842-6633

Source:RBCCapitalMarketsGeorge.Davis@

RBCDominionSecuritiesInc.

12monthforecastreturns

LuisEstrada

MostbullishMostbearish

MXNCHFLatAmFXStrategist

BRLCNY1(416)842-8701

CLPMYRLuis.Estrada@

Source:RBCCapitalMarketsRBCDominionSecuritiesInc.

AlvinT.Tan

Keyforecastrevisions:AsiaFXStrategist

12monthforecastcurrencyreturnsvsUSD,quarterly,%includingcarry

Max

OMin

OEndperiod

MXN

BRL

CLP

CAD

COP

HKD

PEN

KRW

GBP

SGD

EUR

AUD

JPY

PLN

MYR

CNY

CHF

Source:RBCCapitalMarkets

CurrencyReportCard

17December20242

Tableofcontents

2025:FXOutlook 3

2025ThematicTrades 5

IndividualCurrencyViews 9

USDollar 10

Euro 11

JapaneseYen 12

Sterling 13

SwissFranc 14

CanadianDollar 15

AustralianDollar 16

ChineseYuan 17

SouthKoreanWon 18

SingaporeanDollar 19

MalaysianRinggit 20

BrazilianReal 21

MexicanPeso 22

ChileanPeso 23

ColombianPeso 24

PolishZloty 25

FXForecasts 26

CentralBankRateForecasts 28

Disclaimer 29

CurrencyReportCard

3

17December2024

2025:FXOutlook

?2025issettobeaninterestingyearasTrumptakesofficeonJanuary20,promisingtodeliverbigpolicychangesintheUS.

?Forthefirsttimeinmanyyears,weheadintoanewyearwithaseeminglystrongconsensustobebullishUSD.Despitethat,acalendarspreadofanalystforecastsremainsUSD-negative.

?Wetrytosteerclearofthe“obvious”tradesfor2025(longUSD,longvol),insteadlookingforRVinG10,Asia,LatamandFXvol.

2025issettobeaninterestingyearasTrumptakesofficeonJanuary20,promisingtodeliverbigpolicychangesintheUS.Theincomingadministrationisclearlymuchbetter-preparedtoassumepowerthanitwasin2016.Earlyappointmentspointtoadesiretohitthegroundrunningonatleastthreemainpillarsofchange:(1)deregulation,(2)tariffs,(3)immigration.Westruggle,aseveryonedoes,toknowwhatportionofTrumprhetoricweshouldbakeintoouroutlook.AsformerCanadianPrimeMinisterStephenHarperputit,“Trumpshouldbetakenseriously,butnotliterally”.ThelongUSDtradeseems“obvious”,butwehavetriedtoavoiditinour2025directionalthematictrades.Likealmosteveryoneelse,wewouldratherbelongUSDthanshortbutwithDXYat107andpositioningalreadycrowdedheadingintothenewyear,theriskrewarddoesn’tfeelgreat.Perhapswearefallingintothesametrapasothers–everyonewantstobelongUSDbutseeminglyfewhavethetradeoninbigsize.Manypeoplewespeaktoarewaitingforadiptobuyinto,whichoftenmeansthedipnevercomes.USD’spositivecarrymeansalongspotpositionwouldmakesenseevenifspotitselfbarelymoves.Nevertheless,wehavedecidedtofocusonRVtradesforouryear-aheadthematicpiece,consciousthatthereareenoughanalystsouttherebangingthelongUSDdrum,atleastinthenear-term1.

Analysts’long-termforecastsstillpointtoalowerUSD

6.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0

-AnalystconsensusUSDforecast,LTvsST

101112131415161718192021222324

Source:Bloomberg,RBCCapitalMarkets

Volatilityisanotherinterestingtopic.Againitfeels“obvious”tomanythatitshouldbehigherin2025.Trumpisinherentlyunpredictable,lessboundbyconventionandnormsthanhispredecessors.Hiscampaignrhetoricwasextreme,andwhilefewpeopletakehimliterally,toFormerPMHarper’spointabove,Trump2.0iswidelyexpectedtogofurtherthanhedidinhisfirstadministration.Butwhileweunderstandtheinteresttobuy~3mvolpost-election,dependingonthepair,ithasnotrealizedparticularlywellsofar(USD/JPYwouldbelosingmoney,EUR/USDwouldatbestbebreakingeven).Wequestionwhetherbuyingvolwillworkfortheyearasawhole.LookingbacktoTrump’sunexpectedwinin2016,volatilitywasexpectedtorisepost-election,andyetFXvolpeakedshortlybefore/afterinaugurationinJanuary2017andproceededtogrindlowerformostofhisterm.Whenvoleventuallyspikedhigher,itwasdrivenbyanentirelyexternalshock(COVID)ratherthananypolicychange.OurUSratesteamarguesTrump’sbarkisworsethanhisbiteandit’shardtodisagree.HisfocusontheS&P500asameasureofsuccessmakesitmuchlesslikelythathewillimposeuniversaltariffsordeportamacroeconomicallysignificantnumberofpeople.

FXvolgrindedlowerformostofTrump1.0

18.0

16.0

14.0

12.0

10.0

8.0

6.0

4.0

3m

3M&1Yimpliedvol(averageofEUR/USD,USD/JPY,AUD/USD)

%

1Y

USElection (2024)

USElection (2016)

Inauguration

(2017)

Jan-17

Jan-18

Jan-19

Jan-20

Jan-21

Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24

Jan-16

Source:Bloomberg,RBCCapitalMarkets

OurforecastslookforgrindingUSDstrength,underpinnedbyanexpectationthattheterminalpolicyrateintheUSwillendupnorthof4%.PositivecarryandongoingUSexceptionalismcontinuetosupportUSD.Theproblemisthatthisisverywell-knownandpriced.Positioningreflectsthatview.ButUSDpositioningisnotconsistentlylongacrosstheboard,andsomecurrencieslookover-extendedandothersunder-positioned.

1Acalendarspreadofanalysts’long-termforecastsstillshowsthesamebiasforUSDtotrendlowerthathaspersistedforthepast8years.

CurrencyReportCard

17December20244

MarketsarestretchedlongUSDvsCAD,CHF,JPY

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

LongUSDvsXXX

RBCPositioningMonitor:USDvs...ChangesinceUSElection

ONow(Dec17)

CADEURAUDCHFNZDGBPBRLNOKZARKRWSEKJPYMXN

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

Source:RBCCapitalMarkets

Ourfirstthematictradefor2025isshortGBP/CAD-pittinganearlycutter(BoC)againstalaggard(BoE).Oursecondtradepitstwoconsensusshortsagainsteachother(EUR&CHF).WeseeroomforEURtooutperformCHFastheECBcutslessthanpricedwhiletheSNBhitsthezerolowerbound.Ourthirdtradeisalong-JPYtradeforachange,havingplayedJPYfromtheshortsideformostofthelastthreeyears.WearestillnotUSD/JPYbearsbutlookforsomeJPY-crossoutperformance.Trades4&5areEMRVtrades-alongMYR&IDRbasketfundedoutofKRWandSGDinAsia,andsella3mUSD/MXNriskreversalandgolongBRL/COPinLatam.Involspace,wesuggestplayingtheasymmetrybetweenUSD/JPYdownside(bidforputsovercalls)andEUR/USDtopside(alsobidforputsovercalls).FinallyourChiefTechnicalAnalystproposeslongAUD/NZDasatechnicaltrade.

CurrencyReportCard

17December20245

2025ThematicTrades

1.ShortGBP/CAD

GBPhasbeenoneofthetopG10performersYTD,drivenbybetterthanexpectedUKeconomicdataandGBP’syieldadvantage.WeforecastagradualBoEratecuttingcyclein2025,butifthedomesticeconomicoutlookdeteriorates,thehurdleislowforGBP-downside,givenpositioningandrelativeGBPovervaluation(inULCterms).It’stooearlytoseethefullimpactoftheBudgetbutearlyevidencepointstotheriseinNIweighingonemployment.InCanada,weseefurtherBoCcutsthroughJuly2025.ButbyH22025,CADmaystarttobenefitfrombeingan‘earlycutter’.ThemonetaryeasingdeliveredbytheBoCshouldsupportagrowthrecovery,withpotentiallyamorebusiness-friendlypolicystancepostthefederalelection(duebyOct2025)addingtotheCAD-positivemood.TrumphasthreatenedCanadawithtariffsbutUS-CAsupplychainsaretightlyintegratedandweexpectanytariffsonCanadatobetargeted(aswithsteel/aluminum/lumber)toavoidUSeconomicpain.NAgrowthtailwindsandapositiveUSDenvironmentwouldbenefitthetrade.

2.LongEUR/CHF

ThereisastrongconsensusthattheEuropeanoutlookisdire.Germanyhasstagnatedforthepasttwoyears,Franceisnotmuchbetter.BothfacepoliticalgridlockthoughinGermanyatleast,thisissettoberesolvednextquarterwithsnapelections.TheEuroareaishighlyexposedtoaTrumptradewar,bothdirectly(runningaEUR~170bngoodstradesurpluswiththeUS)andindirectlyasitcompeteswithChinaforRoWexportmarkets.Andyetallofthisiswell-knownandabigpartofthereasonwhyEUR/USDsitsjustshyof1.05,alevelithasrarelytradedbelowinthelast22years.IttookaperfectUSD-bullstormin2022withatwinbond/equitysell-offandanenergycrisistogetEUR/USDtotradebelowparityforafewmonths.Lookingaheadto2025,thehurdleforsomepositiveEUR-surprisesislow.A‘stagflationary-lite’environmentshouldkeeptheECBfromcuttingasmuchaspriced(RBC:-75bp,fwdcurve:-145bpbyend-2025,seeherefromourratesteamformore).FranceislikelytoholdelectionsagaininJunebutaslongasMacronstaysinhispost,majorpoliticalriskisatbayuntilthe2027Presidentialelection.TheSNBhasalreadycutratesto0.50%andweexpecttheywillhitthezerolowerboundbyend-Q2.Fromthere,cappingcurrencygainsislikelytotakeprecedenceovernegativeinterestrates.

GBPpricedforperfectionon2Yyields

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

-120

2Yswaprates-NetchangeYTDandcurrentlevel

-NetchangeYTD(inbp)

Currentlevel(%,rhs)

US

SE

CH

CA

JP

AU

EU

NZ

NOGB

4.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0

Source:Bloomberg,RBCCapitalMarkets

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00

-0.20

-0.40

-0.60

SNBtocutratestozeroinH12025;riskisevenlower

SNBpolicyrate(%):RBCforecastvsforwardcurve..RBCBaseCase

RBCRiskScenarioMarketPricing

Now

Mar-25Jun-25Sep-25Dec-25Mar-26Jun-26Sep-26Dec-26

Source:Bloomberg,RBCCapitalMarkets

6

17December2024

3.ShortSGD/JPY

RelativeJPYoutperformanceisoneofthemoreinterestingsurprisespost-USelection.Wethinkthathintsata“re-hedging”dynamicatplay.Historically,Japaneseinvestorshaveadjustedtheirhedgeratiosinlinewithhedgingcosts–increasinghedgeratiosto100%whentheFedslashedratestozerointheGFCandthenreducingthemasthecostwentup.Thepost-COVIDtighteningcyclethatstartedin2022causedanunprecedentedriseinthecostofhedgingrelativetotheaverageyieldonJapan’sstockofforeignbonds.Buttwothingshavehappened–theaverageyieldonthatstockofbondshasrisenby>100bpswhiletheUSD/JPYforwardcurvehaspeakedandrolledover.2025issettobetheyearwherethecostofhedgingwitha3mUSD/JPYforwarddropsbelowtheaverageyieldonthestockofforeignbonds.Thisisn’tabinarysituationandthereisnothingmagicalaboutthetwolinescrossing.ButitdoessuggestthatJapaneseinvestorsshouldatthemarginturnintobuyersofJPYashedgesareputbackon.ThereistoomuchnegativecarryinshortUSD/JPYandwedonotexpectthespotmovetooffsetit,butthinkthereisscopetoplaylongJPYagainstanAsiancurrencyyieldingmuchlessthanUSD.WehaveusedshortTWDandKRWasfundersforthelongMYRandIDRtradebelow,andwewouldavoidshortCNHunlesslockinginfundingwithalong-datedoutright,asweexpecttoseemorefundingsqueezesinCNHin2025.ShortSGD/JPYhasalmosthalfthenegativecarryofshortUSD/JPY,therelativevaluecrosshasalowcorrelationtotheDXYIndex,andtheentrypointlooksattractivefromalong-termvaluationperspective.

4.ShortKRW&TWDvsLongIDR&MYR

TherearesignificantuncertaintiesoverUStradepolicyinTrump'ssecondterm,butasecondUS-Chinatradewarisamongthemostlikelyscenarios.MoregeneralisedUStradeprotectionismisalsoarisk.Moreover,theUSdollarisexpectedtocontinuedoingwellmorebroadly.AmongAsiancurrencies,thesefactorsareexpectedtohitSouthKoreaandTaiwanmoreseverely,withbothbeingexport-dependentandcloselylinkedtoChinaeconomically.Ontheflipside,Indonesiaisamongtheleasttrade-dependentofthemajorAsiaEMeconomies.MalaysiaandIndonesiacouldalsocontinuetobenefitfromsupply-sidediversificationinvestmentflowsamiddeepeningUS-Chinatensions.Finally,ashortKRWandTWDversuslongIDRandMYRbasketprovidespositivecarry.

Japaneseinvestorsshowwideswingsinhedgeratiosbasedoncost

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

Lifeinsurers'hedgeratio,RHS,inverted

3mUSDhedgecost,annualised,%,LHS

30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

0405060708091011121314151617181920212223Source:Bloomberg,RBCCapitalMarkets,ThomsonReuters

KRW,TWD:Export-dependent&closelinksw/China

Totalexports(%GDP)

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

China(%Exports)

Indonesia

India

S.Korea

Taiwan

Thailand

Malaysia

Source:Bloomberg,RBCCapitalMarkets

17December20247

5.Sell3mUSD/MXNriskreversal

WithTrump’sinaugurationimminent,weanticipatehispotentialpolicymoves.Trumpseemstohaveusedtariffthreatsasleverageinnegotiationsoverimmigrationanddrugtrafficking,andweareanticipatingthathewillrefrainfromimposingtariffsonUSMCApartners.IftariffsonMexicoareunexpectedlyintroduced,weforeseeatumultuousreactioninUSD/MXN,withthepotentialtospiketo22.00—alevellastseeninOctober2021.Themarket'sreactionwilldependonthespecificsoftheannouncement,buthistorysuggestsitcouldquicklyreverttolevelsbelow22.00,asseenaftertheMexicanelectionsurprise.Weexpectthemarkettofindequilibriumaroundtheselevels.Banxicohassignaleditswillingnesstointerveneintheeventofmarketdisruption.IfTrumpfocusestariffactionsprimarilyonChina,Mexicocouldexperienceaboostfromfurthernearshoring.WewouldexpectthistopushUSD/MXNbelow19.00asinvestorsunwinddefensivepositions.Inlightofthesescenarios,werecommendazero-premiumriskreversalstrategy:buyinga3mUSDMXNputoptionwitha19.50strikeandsellinga3mUSDMXNcalloptionwitha22.40strike.

6.LongBRL/COP

BRLisfacingpressurefromyear-endoutflowsandliquidityconstraints,despiterecenthikes.However,weexpectstabilizationinto2025,astheBCBhasstartedtointerveneinthespotmarket,whichshouldbolsterBRL.MeanwhileCOPhasrecoveredfromitsrecenthighof4550,benefitingfromtheunwindofshorts.DespiteColombia'sstabilizationbelow4400,itfacesfiscalchallengesahead.Botheconomiesaresensitivetofiscaldeterioration,yetBrazil'sattractiveovernightinterestrates,projectedat14%byQ12025,offer6%annualizedcarryoverColombia.Brazil'sspendingcutpackageislikelytobeenactedafterCongressreconvenesinFebruary,enhancingBRLstability.Bytheendof2025,thespreadisprojectedtowidento900bpsinfavorofBRL.

USD/MXN:ScenariosunderTrump’stariffs

MXNRiskReversalImpliedVol(1m)

3532.5 3027.5 2522.5 2017.5 1512.5 10 7.5 5 2.50

USDMXNSpot-

TRUMP25%TARIFF

ForwardOutright,

11-2026,

22.1830725

TRUMP25%TARIFF,22

ForwardOutrightVolatilityConesNOTARIFF

22

USDMXNSpot

20.1258

21.2482

19.00

NOTARIFF,19.00

Dec/22

Feb/23

Apr/23

May/23

Jul/23

Sep/23

Oct/23

Dec/23

Feb/24

Mar/24

May/24

Jul/24

Aug/24

Oct/24

Dec/24

Jan/25

Mar/25

May/25

Jun/25

Aug/25

Oct/25

Nov/25

Jan/26

Mar/26

Apr/26

Jun/26

Aug/26

Sep/26

Nov/26

Jan/27

26

25.525

24.524

23.523

22.522

21.521

20.520

19.519

18.518

17.517

16.516

15.515

Source:Bloomberg,RBCCapitalMarkets

Targetingamoveto756,then790;stoplossat670

1050

BRL/COP

1stObj

2ndObj

eoeoe50WMA

Stoploss

1000

950

900

2ndObj,790

1stObj,756

850

800

750

700

Stoploss,670

BRL/COPWeekly

650

Oct-23

Sep-22

Dec-22

Mar-23

Jul-23

Jan-24

Nov-24

Feb-25

May-24Aug-24

Source:Bloomberg,RBCCapitalMarkets

CurrencyReportCard

8

17December2024

7.Sell20d9mUSD/JPYput/Buy20d9mEUR/USDcall

OurfinalvoltradeisdesignedtoearnsomepremiuminaworldwhereG10majorsremainwithinthepastyear’srangebutintheeventofamoresubstantialUSDsell-off,mayberelativelyneutral.Wesuggestsellinga20-delta9mUSD/JPYput(spotref:153.50,strike140)andbuyinga20-delta9mEUR/USDcall(spotref1.0490,strike1.1225).Theformerearns~1.37%USD,thelattercosts~0.635%USD(netpremiumearned0.735%).USD/JPYriskreversalsareconsistentlybidforputsovercalls(9m25dRR-0.77)whileEUR/USDriskreversalsarealsobidforputsovercalls(9m25dRR-1.42).Thistradebenefitsfromthatskew.ThemostlikelyscenariotocauseasubstantialUSD/JPYsell-offwouldbefasterthanexpectedFedcuts.WethinkthatwouldalsotriggeranunderappreciatedrallyinEUR/USD.ThechangeintheEuroarea’sexternalbalancesheetoverthepastdecadecoupledwithEUR’sstartingpointasarelativelowyieldercomparedtoUSDmeansthatitismuchmorelikelytotradewithhaven-likepropertieswhenthenextUSrecessionhits(seehereformore).SincetheGFC,thelargestrisk-offshocktohitmarketshasbeenCOVIDinFeb/March2020.EURandJPYfollowedeachotherfairlyclosely,initiallyrallyingagainstUSD(20Feb-9March2020)andthenreversingthemove.TheamplitudeoftheUSD/JPYmovewashigheratthattime(10%vs7%)butthedistanceofthecurrenttrade’sstriketospotisalsofurtherontheshortUSD/JPYput(-10%)thanthelongEUR/USDcall(+7%).USD/JPYsoldoffmorethanEUR/USDralliedduringthemorerecentAugust2024volatilitybutstartedwithfarmoreextremelongpositioningintothatepisode,reinforcedbytheBoJ’sdecisiontohike.Risksaremoreevenlybalancedgiventhebuild-upinEUR/USDshortspost-election,andtheBoJhikes/ECBcutsalreadydiscountedbytheforwardcurve.

8.LongAUD/NZD(technicaltrade)

TheAUD/NZDcrosscontinuestotraceoutamulti-yearbasenearparity,withapotentialdoublebottomformingagainstthislevelin2015and2020.Theuptrendthathasbeeninplaceoverthelastfouryearsfavoursusingpullbackstosupportat1.0896and1.0695asabuyingopportunityaspartofthebasingthesis.Aweeklycloseaboveinitialresistanceat1.1152wouldaddtobullishmomentumandupholdthebasingthesis,settingthestageforare-testofthetopendofthe10-yearrangeat1.1430.AweeklycloseabovethislevelwouldconfirmthedoublebottompatternandclearthewayforalargerextensionhighertowardtheSeptember2013highat1.1660,followedby50%retracementofthe2011-2015declineat1.1909asbullishsentimentincreasesfurther.Aweeklyclosebelowthe2022lowat1.0471wouldneutralizethebottomingthesisasitwouldbreakastringof“higherlows”thatareinplace.Therefore,wewouldlooktoscaleintolongpositionsat1.0895and1.0695toplaythebottomingthesis,withatakeprofitat1.1400.Wewouldimplement1.0450asastoplossforourview.

BiggestshocksinceGFCtriggeredsimilarreaction

Spikehigher

1.18

EURUSD(lhs)

USDJPY(rhs,inverted)

inVIX

1.16

1.14

1.12

1.10

1.08

1.06

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Source:Bloomberg,RBCCapitalMarkets

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

BottomingthesisforAUD/NZD

Source:Bloomberg,RBCCapitalMarkets

CurrencyReportCard

17December20249

IndividualCurrencyViews

CurrencyReportCard

10

17December2024

USDollar

1-3MonthOutlook–Consensusisstrong,doesn’tnecessarilymeanit’swrong

ThereisalotofgoodnewsinthepriceforUSD.Post-electionithasbecomeconsensusthatUSexceptionalismisheretostay.Thatisalsoreflectedinpositioningwhich,particularlyinG10,hasshiftedmateriallytowardslongUSDsinceNovember5(Figure1).MostpartsofTrump’spolicyagendaaregrowth-positive,inflationaryorboth,soonecanunderstandwhyUSexceptionalism/USDoutperformanceisconsensus.Thatdoesnotmeanithastobewrong.InconversationswithveryrareUSDbears,itishardtofindstrongreasonsforUSDtotradelowerasidefrom“positioning”and“allthegoodnewsisintheprice”.BotharefairobservationsforwhyUSDmaynottrademuchhigherbutwithweeksuntilyear-end,riskallocationsarenothuge.We’vespokentomanyinvestorswaitingforaUSDdiptobuyinto.ThatmakesithardertoseeameaningfulpullbackinUSDwithoutsomenewnews,suchnon-USdataturningmuchstrongerorUSdataturningmuchsofter(neitherourbasecase).ThenextthreemonthswillshowhowfarTrumpiswillingtogoontariffs,whicharethemostimmediatelyimpactfulpolicychangeforFX.Trump1.0deliveredsometargetedtariffsbutnothinguniversal.Somearguethistimewillbedifferent,butthemessagefrom2024electionsgloballywasthatvotersreallydonotlikeinflationandwedoubtTrumpisreadytodeliverpoliciesthatcrushrealUSincomes.Ofcoursethethreatoftariffscanweighon