印度天然氣市場(chǎng)報(bào)告：2030年展望報(bào)告（英文版）

IndiaGas

MarketReport

Outlookto2030

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INTERNATIONALENERGY

AGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthefull

spectrum

ofenergyissues

includingoil,gasandcoalsupplyand

demand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,

accesstoenergy,demandside

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policiesthatwillenhancethereliability,

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IndiaGasMarketReportAbstract

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Abstract

India'sdynamiceconomicgrowth,coupledwithrapidurbanisationandindustrialisation,issettosignificantlytransformitsentireenergymarket,includingnaturalgas,inthecomingyears.Thisreport,basedonextensivedialogueswithkeyIndianstakeholders,providestheInternationalEnergyAgency’s(IEA)comprehensiveanalysisofthisevolvinglandscape.AsIndiaaimstotransitiontowardsagas-basedeconomyandreduceitsdependenceonoilimports,thereportoffersadetailedforecastandstrategicinsightsthrough2030.Theanalysisrevealsananticipatedtransformativeshiftinthenaturalgaslandscape,drivenbyfavourableglobalmarketconditions,expansionofgaspipelineinfrastructureandimprovementsindomesticproduction.Thesefactorsareexpectedtosupportastrongincreaseinnaturalgasconsumption.

Strategicopportunitiesandpolicyinterventionscouldfurtherboostgasconsumptionbeyondtheforecastedtrajectoryby2030.ThereportexploresthepotentialforLNGuseinheavy-dutytransport,greaterutilisationofthepowergenerationfleet,andacceleratedinfrastructuredevelopmentintheresidential,commercial,andtransportsectorstodriveadditionaldemand.ItalsoexaminestheuntappedpotentialofIndia'scompressedbiogas(CBG)productionandtheexpectedgrowthinLNGimportstobridgethegapleftbymarginaldomesticproductionincreases.Additionally,thereportoutlinespolicyoptionsfortheIndiangovernmenttoenhancetheroleofnaturalgaswithinthenationalenergymixinthecomingyears.

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Acknowledgements,contributorsandcredits

ThisspecialreportonIndia’sgasmarketwaspreparedbytheGas,CoalandPowerMarketsDivision(GCP)oftheInternationalEnergyAgency’s(IEA)DirectorateofEnergyMarketsandSecurity(EMS).ThestudywasdesignedanddirectedbyDennisHesseling,HeadoftheGCP,whoalsoco-ordinatedtheproductionofthereport.TheworkgreatlybenefittedfromstrategicguidancebyKeisukeSadamori,DirectorofEMS.

AkosLosz,LeadGasMarketAnalyst,andCaroleEtienne,GasMarketAnalyst,ledtheanalysisandweretheprincipalauthorsofthereport,withsignificantassistancefromOmkarKajrolkar.ValuablecommentsandfeedbackwereprovidedbyseniormanagementandcolleagueswithintheIEA,includingAnaAlcalde-Bascones,ErenCam,IliasAtigui,TorilBosoni,MarcCasanovas-Simo,TimGould,CiaranHealy,HughHopewell,NicholasHowarth,KavitaJadhav,MartinKueppers,DavidMartin,ApostolosPetropoulos,YutakaShirakawa,SiddharthSingh,AnthonyVautrinandPeterZeniewski.SpecialthankstoNicolasCoent,fromtheEnergyDataCentreteam,forhisexpertassistancewiththedata.AlayPatelactedasaresearchconsultantandplayedakeyroleinthepreparationoftheReport,especiallyduringthemissioninDelhi.AlldataandprojectionsaretheworkoftheIEA,unlessotherwisenoted.

TheIEA’sCommunicationsandDigitalOffice(CDO)providedproductionsupport,andparticularthanksgotoJethroMullen,HeadofCDO,andhisteam:PoeliBojorquez,AstridDumond,LivGaunt,JoshHammondandClaraVallois.TheauthorswouldalsoliketothankElspethThomsonforeditingthereport.

OfficialsfromtheMoPNG,thePPACandothergovernmententities,aswellasoilandgascompanies,providedvaluableinput.

IndiaGasMarketReportTableofcontents

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Tableofcontents

Executivesummary 6

Chapter1.Introduction 8

Globalgasmarkettrends 8

EnergyuseandgasmarkettrendsinIndia 9

Chapter2.Gasinfrastructure 14

LNGinfrastructure 14

Transmissionpipelines 16

Citygasdistribution(CGD) 17

Undergroundgasstorage 19

Regulatoryissues 20

Chapter3.GaspricinginIndia 22

Theallocationmechanismfordomesticgas 24

TheroleoftheIndianGasExchange(IGX)ingaspricediscovery 25

Chapter4.Gasdemandoutlook 29

Sectoraltrends 29

Chapter5.Domesticgasproductionoutlook 44

Naturalgasproductionthrough2030 44

Compressedbiogassupplyoutlook 47

Chapter6.LNGdemandoutlookto2030 53

RecenttrendsinLNGimports 53

OutlookforLNGdemandthrough2030 55

Chapter7.PolicyoptionstoincreasetheroleofgasinIndia’senergymix 57

Annex 65

Abbreviationsandacronyms 65

Glossary 67

IndiaGasMarketReportExecutivesummary

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Executivesummary

ThehistoryofgasinIndia’senergysystemhasamixedtrackrecord,withperiodsofrapidexpansionfollowedbyepisodesofdecline.Aftersteepdemanddeclinesinthewakeofthe2022globalenergycrisis,totalgasconsumptioninIndiain2023wasonlyslightlyhigherthanin2011.However,thisreport–groundedincomprehensivedataanalysisandextensiveconsultationswithIndianstakeholders–arguesthatgasuseinIndiahasreachedaninflectionpointandisoncoursetoincreasesubstantiallybetween2023and2030.Thisgrowthisdrivenbythreemajortrends:therapidexpansionofIndia’sgasinfrastructure,areboundindomesticnaturalgasproduction(whichisgenerallycheaperthanimportedLNG)andanexpectedeasingofglobalgasmarketconditions.Supportivegovernmentpolicieshavefurtherpavedthewayforincreasednaturalgasconsumptionthrough2030.

India'snaturalgasconsumptionisforecasttoincreasebynearly60%by2030,drivenbyrobustgrowthincitygasdistribution,industrialdemand,andpowergeneration.Since2000,India'snaturalgasconsumptionmorethandoubled,exceeding65bcm/yrby2023.Between2023and2030,gasconsumptionisprojectedtogrowbynearly60%,reaching103bcm/yrbytheendoftheforecastperiod,bringingIndiaroughlyonparwiththecurrentgasconsumptionofSaudiArabia.Thecitygasdistribution(CGD)sectorisexpectedtoleadthisgrowth,supportedbytherapidexpansionofcompressednaturalgas(CNG)infrastructureandthecostadvantageofgasoverliquidfuelsforsmallindustrialusers.Heavyindustrialandmanufacturingsectors,suchasironandsteelproduction,arealsodrivingdemand,collectivelyaddingaround15bcm/yrduringthisperiod.Gasuseinoilrefiningisexpectedtoincreasebymorethan4bcm/yrasmorerefineriesgetconnectedtothegrid.Growthprospectsinthepetrochemicalandfertilisersectorsremainmorelimited,asnonewgas-basedcapacityadditionsareforeseenwithinourforecasthorizon.Gasdemandinthepowergenerationsectorisprojectedtoreachnearly15bcm/yrby2030,drivenbyarecoveryinlargegas-firedpowerplantsandtherapidexpansionofgasuseincaptivepowerplants.

Targetedstrategiesandpolicyinterventionscouldboostgasconsumptionbeyondtheforecastedtrajectorytoaround120bcm/yrby2030,closetothecurrentgasconsumptionoftheentirecontinentofSouthAmerica.Incrementalgrowthinthisaccelerateddemandtrajectory,whichrequiresadditionalpolicysupportineachcategory,couldcomefromhigherutilisationofIndia’sstrandedgas-firedpowerplants,fasteradoptionofLNGinheavy-dutytransport,andmorerapidexpansionofIndia’sCGDinfrastructure,combinedwiththereplacementofLPGwithnaturalgasinthecommercialsegment.Intotal,thisaccelerateduptakeofnaturalgasacrosstheresidential,commercial,transportandelectricitysectorscouldaddanother15bcm/yrofgasdemandby2030.

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India'sdomesticgasproduction,whichmet50%ofdemandin2023,isexpectedtogrowonlymoderatelythrough2030.Afternearlyadecadeofdeclineandstagnation,India'sdomesticgasproductionhasseenaresurgence.In2023,totalnetgasproductionreached35bcm,meetingabouthalfofthecountry'sgasdemand.ThisgrowthisprimarilydrivenbythedeepwaterfieldsintheKrishna-Godavaribasin,whichnowaccountfornearly25%ofIndia'stotalproduction.Between2024and2030,onlymoderategrowthisexpected,supportedbyincreasingonshoreproductionfromcoalbedmethane(CBM)anddiscoveredsmallfields(DSF).OffshoreproductionwillalsorisewithadditionalsuppliesfromONGC’sdeepwaterKG-D5project.However,overallgrowthwillbetemperedbyplateauingoutputfromtheKG-D6fieldsanddecliningproductionfromlegacyassetslikeONGC’sMumbaioffshorefields,leavingproductionin2030(atjustunder38bcm)onlyaround8%higherthan2023levels.

India'scompressedbiogas(CBG)productionpotentialremainslargelyuntapped,withannualoutputexpectedtoreach0.8bcmby2030.India'sCBGpotentialisestimatedatapproximately87bcm/yr,whiletheinstalledcapacitycurrentlyrepresentslessthan1%ofthispotential.ThegovernmenthasintroducedseveralpolicyinitiativestosupportCBGproduction.AsofSeptember2024,approximately90CBGplantswereoperational,withanadditional508plantsundervariousstagesofdevelopment.By2030,CBGproductioncouldreach0.8bcm/yr.However,challengessuchaslandavailability,limitedofftake,seasonalbiomasssupplyandinadequatelogisticscontinuetohindertheconsistentavailabilityandcommercialviabilityofCBGproduction.ThegovernmenthasprovidedfinancialsupportforpipelineconnectivityforCBGplants,biomassaggregationmachinery,andbyproductsofftaketoaddressthesechallengesandbuildarobustCBGecosystemby2030.

India'sLNGimportsaresettomorethandoublebetween2023and2030,drivenbysteadydemandgrowthandamuchslowerriseindomesticproduction.Between2013and2023,India'sLNGimportsincreasedby70%,andreached36bcmin2024,matchingthepreviousrecordsetin2020andcementingthecountry’spositionasthefourth-largestLNGimporterglobally.Lookingahead,India'sLNGdemandisprojectedtogrowsteadily,reaching64bcm/yrby2030.Thisrepresentsanannualaveragegrowthrateof11%forthe2023-2030period,twicetheaveragerateobservedintheprevioustenyears.Asdomesticnaturalgasproductionisprojectedtoseeonlymarginalgrowthuntil2030,LNGimportsareexpectedtomeetanincreasingshareofIndia’sfuturegasdemand.TherapidriseinLNGrequirementsnecessitatesadditionalLNGimportcapacityinthesecondhalfofthedecade.ThegapbetweencontractedLNGsupplyandprojectedLNGrequirementsissettowidensignificantlyafter2028,leavingIndiamoreexposedtothevolatilityofthespotLNGmarketunlessadditionalLNGcontractsaresecuredinthecomingyears.

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Chapter1.Introduction

Globalgasmarkettrends

TheglobalgasandLNGmarketshaveexperiencedsignificantturbulenceinrecentyears,drivenbygeopoliticaleventsandshiftingsupply-demanddynamics.The2022gassupplyshock,combinedwithasurgeinpost-pandemicenergydemandinEuropeandAsia,createdaperfectstormthatstrainedtheglobalgasmarketbalance.Asaresult,gaspricesspiked,leadingtosignificantdemanddeclines,areconfigurationofglobalLNGflows,andareassessmentofenergysecuritypoliciesworldwide.

Followingthegassupplyshockof2022,naturalgasmarketsmovedtowardsagradualrebalancingin2023,drivenbytimelypolicyinterventions,marketadjustmentsinresponsetohighgaspricesandfavourableweatherconditions.Throughout2023,marketfundamentalscontinuedtoease,leadingtoafragilestabilisationinsupplyanddemanddynamics.

Bythefirstquarterof2024,gaspriceshadfallennearly50%belowtheaveragein2021,thelastyearbeforethe2022energycrisis,reflectingamorebalancedmarketenvironmentdespitelimitedLNGsupplygrowthandshippingconstraintsviathePanamaCanalandtheRedSea.Thistrendcontinuedthroughoutthefirsthalfof2024,althoughEuropeanandAsianspotpricesremainedwellabovetheirhistoricalaveragesobservedinthe2016-2020period.Tightermarketfundamentals,combinedwithperceivedsupplyrisksamidgeopoliticaltensions,droveupnaturalgaspricesagaininthesecondhalfoftheyear.In2024,naturalgasdemandgrewbyanestimated2.8%y-o-y(or115bcm);Asia,ledbyChinaandIndia,accountedfornearly45%oftheincrementaldemand.Fromasectoralperspective,globalgasconsumptiongrowthwaslargelysupportedbyindustryandenergyownuse,accountingforabout45%oftheincrementalgasdemandduringtheyear.Meanwhile,globalLNGsupplysawonlymodestgrowthin2024,increasingbylessthan2.5%.

Lookingahead,thesubstantialincreaseinLNGproductionandexportcapacity,mainlyfromQatarandtheUSA,withcloseto270bcm/yrofnewcapacitycomingonlinebetween2024and2030,ispoisedtoreshapethemarket.ThissurgeinLNGsupplyisanticipatedtooutpacedemandgrowth,resultinginmorecomfortablesupplyanddemandbalancesandeasingmarkettensions.However,regionalpricedisparitiesmaypersistduetovaryingdemanddynamicsandinfrastructureconstraints.

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EnergyuseandgasmarkettrendsinIndia

Drivenbyrapideconomicdevelopment,urbanisationandindustrialisation,India,theworld'smostpopulouscountry,isexperiencingsignificantgrowthinenergydemand.Primaryenergyconsumptionincreased2.4-foldbetween2000and2022,withabout70%ofdemandstillbeingmetbycoalandoil.Fromagreenhousegas(GHG)andlocalairpollutionperspective,thisincreasedenergyconsumptionposessignificantchallenges.

India'senergy-relatedGHGemissionshavegrownrapidlysincetheturnofthecentury,makingittheworld'sthirdlargestGHGemitter.However,Indiahascommittedtoclearclimategoals,includingachievingnetzeroemissionsby2070.AspartofitsupdatedNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs)undertheParisAgreement,IndiahascommittedtoreducingthecarbonintensityofitsGDPby45%by2030comparedto2005levelsandcuttingtotalprojectedcarbonemissionsbyonebillionmetrictonsoverthesameperiod.TheseeffortsarepartofIndia'sbroaderstrategytotransitiontoalow-carboneconomy,whichincludesincreasingrenewableenergycapacity,enhancingenergyefficiencyandpromotingsustainableurbanisation.Despitethesecommitments,balancingeconomicgrowthwithenvironmentalsustainabilityremainsanongoingchallengeforIndia,asitisforanyothercountrycommittedtotheenergytransition.

Airqualityremainsasignificantconcern,withmanyregionsexperiencinglevelsofpollutionthatexceednationalandinternationalstandards.Thegovernmenthasimplementedvariousmeasurestocombatairpollution,suchasenforcingstricteremissionsstandardsinindustryandthetransportsector,promotingsustainableagriculturalpractices,transitioningtocleanerenergysources,regulatingconstructionanddemolitionactivities,andenhancingwastemanagementpractices.However,theeffectivenessofthesemeasuresisoftenhamperedbyenforcementchallengesandthesheerscaleofthepollutionproblem.ImprovingairqualityiscrucialforpublichealthandalignswithIndia'sbroaderenvironmentalandclimategoals.

NaturalgascanplayanimportantroleintheearlystagesofIndia’sextendeddecarbonisationjourney,asitcansimultaneouslycontributetomeetingrapidlyrisingenergydemand,reducinglocalairpollutionandmitigatingGHGemissionsinIndia’scoal-dominatedenergysystem.

TheGovernmentofIndiahassetahighlyambitioustargettoincreasetheshareofnaturalgasinthecountry'senergymixto15%by2030,upfromthe2022level

IndiaGasMarketReportChapter1.Introduction

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of6.4%.

1

ThistargetprovidesacleargrowthsignalforIndia’snaturalgassectorandhassetthedirectionforarangeofsupportivegovernmentpoliciesaimedatincreasinggasuseinIndia’senergyeconomy.

Suchpolicieshavefocusedonexpandingnaturalgasinfrastructure,includingtransportanddistributionpipelines,compressednaturalgasandLNGfillingstations,andLNGimportterminalstoimproveaccesstonaturalgasacrossthecountry.Targetedpoliciesandincentiveshavealsobeenintroducedorproposedtoencouragenaturalgasadoptioninspecificsectors,includingindustry,powergenerationandtransportation.Meanwhile,marketreformshavetakencautiousstepstowardsgreatergasmarketcompetitionandmarket-basedpricing,tryingtostrikeadelicatebalancebetweenincentivisinggreaterdomesticproductionandensuringaffordablenaturalgassupplytoIndia’sprice-sensitiveconsumers.

Inter-fuelcompetitionisparticularlystronginIndia,withnaturalgasvyingagainstcoal,oilandrenewablesinseveralgas-consumingsectors.Thismeansthatevensmallchangesinglobalgaspricescansignificantlyimpactdomesticconsumptionpatterns.Thispricesensitivityunderscorestheneedforcompetitivepricingtoenablenaturalgasadoption.

ThepushforagreatershareofnaturalgasisakeypartofIndia'sstrategytoreduceitsrelianceoncoalandoil,whichcurrentlydominatetheenergylandscape,andtomitigateGHGemissionsinlinewiththecountry’s2070netzerotarget.GreaternaturalgasusealsosupportstheintegrationofIndia’srapidlyexpandingwindandsolarcapacities,furtherreinforcingtheroleofgasinthecountry’senergytransition.

However,achievinga15%primaryenergysharefornaturalgasby2030(equivalentto500mcm/dor182.5bcm/yr,accordingtogovernmentestimates),appearschallenging.Despiterapidenergydemandgrowth,India’snaturalgasconsumptionhasnotkeptpace.Whileprimaryenergyconsumptionexpandedbynearly60%between2010and2022,naturalgasuptakeremainedslow,asIndia’sdevelopmentpathwayprioritisedaffordabilityandenergysecurity.Asaresult,naturalgasaccountedforabout6.4%ofIndia'sprimaryenergyconsumptionin2022.

2

1ThisshareiscalculatedbasedonanadjustedIEAprimaryenergybalance,whichfollowsthemethodologyofIndia’sMinistryofStatisticsandProgrammeImplementationandexcludesbiofuelsandwastefromprimaryenergysupply.Incontrast,theIEA’sstandardmethodology,whichfollowstheUnitedNations’InternationalRecommendationsforEnergyStatistics,includesbiofuelsandwasteintheprimaryenergybalance.Asaresult,theIEA’sWorldEnergyBalancesdatasetreportsalower5.1%shareforgasinIndia’sprimaryenergymixin2022.

2Thecorrespondingshareis5.1%whenbiofuelsandwastearealsoincludedintheprimaryenergybalance.

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IndiaGasMarketReportChapter1.Introduction

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ShareofnaturalgasinprimaryenergymixinIndia,1971-2022

12%

%oftotalprimaryenergysupply

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

IEA.CCBY4.0

Note:Totalenergysupplyexcludesbiofuelsandwasteinthisgraph.

Source:IEA(2024),

WorldEnergyBalances

(database).

Severalfactorshavecontributedtothisshortfall.First,thehighcostofimportedLNGhaslimitedthecompetitivenessofnaturalgascomparedtocheaperalternatives,especiallycoal.Second,infrastructuredevelopment,includingpipelinesandLNGterminals,hasnotkeptpacewithpotentialdemand.Theresultingbottlenecksandconnectivityissueshaveconstrainedtheadoptionofnaturalgasinsectorswheretheeconomicandenvironmentalcaseforswitchingtogashavebeencompelling,suchastransportation,smallindustrialandcommercialapplications,andrefining.

Moreover,whiletheregulatoryenvironmentandpolicysupporthaveimproved,challengesinimplementationandenforcementpersist.Theindustrialandpowersectors,whicharecriticaltoincreasingnaturalgasconsumption,continuetorelyheavilyoncoalduetoitslowercostandestablishedsupplychains,whichisfurtherexacerbatedbyunevenandgenerallyhighertaxationonnaturalgasrelativetocompetingfuels.

ToachieveIndia’sgoalofbecomingagas-basedeconomyandreducingitsdependenceonoilimports,strengtheningtheregulatoryframeworkandensuringconsistentpolicysupportwillbeessential.Thegovernment'scommitmenttotheseeffortswillbepivotalindrivinggrowthinthenaturalgassectorandreducingenergy-relatedGHGemissionsbyreplacingcoalandliquidfuelswithgasintheenergymix.

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Gujarat:AmodelforIndia'sgas-basedeconomy

GujaratwasanearlyadopterofnaturalgasinIndiaandthestate'stransitiontoagas-basedeconomyhasservedasaninspiration(andapotentialtemplate)fortheIndiangovernment'sgoalofdevelopingagas-basedeconomynationwide.Withnaturalgasaccountingfor25%ofitsenergymix,thecaseofGujaratdemonstratesthatwiththerightcombinationofsupplyavailability,infrastructuredevelopmentandpolicysupport,gascanplayasignificantroleintheenergyeconomyinIndia.Gujarat’sexperiencewithnaturalgasadoptionisparticularlysignificantinthecontextoftheGovernmentofIndia'stargettoincreasetheshareofnaturalgasinthenationalenergymixto15%by2030.

Gujarat'snaturalgasmarketdevelopmentbeganin1972withtheVadodaraMunicipalCorporationinitiatinglocalgasdistribution.ThisearlystartwasbolsteredbytheestablishmentoftheGujaratStatePetroleumCorporation(GSPC)in1979,whichplayedacrucialroleindevelopingthestate'sgasinfrastructure.TheformationofGSPC’ssubsidiary,GujaratGasLimited(GGL),in1980furtheracceleratedthegrowthofthenaturalgasmarketbyfocusingoncitygasdistribution.Alltheseentitiesarestate-owned,contributingsignificantlytothedevelopmentoftheregion'sgassupplychain.

OneofthekeyfactorsbehindGujarat'swidernaturalgasuseisitsextensivegasinfrastructure.Thestate'sproximitytoQatar,India'sfirstandbiggestLNGsupplier,andthepresenceofseveralonshoreandoffshorelegacygasfieldsinandaroundGujaratcreatedfavourableconditionsfordownstreamgasandLNGinfrastructureinvestments.Thestateboastsawell-developednetworkofLNGterminals,includingIndia'sfirstoperationalterminalatDahej,commissionedin2004,andsubsequentterminalsatHaziraandMundra.Thesefacilities,supportedbyacomprehensivepipelinenetworkmanagedbyGujaratStatePetronetLimited(GSPL),ensurereliablesupplyanddistributionofnaturalgasacrossthestate.Gujarat'sLNGterminalsaccountforabout60%(38bcm/yr)ofIndia'stotalLNGimportcapacity.TheDahejterminalalonehasacapacityof24bcm/yr.ThestatehasthemostextensivegaspipelinenetworkinIndia,withover5850kmofmainlines,accountingfor25%ofthecountry’spipelines.ThestatealsoleadsthecountryinthenumberofCNGstations(accountingforover1000or14%ofIndia’stotal)andpipednaturalgas(PNG)connectionsfordomestic,commercial,andindustrialuse(totallingcloseto3.5millionor25%ofthenationaltotal).

Gujarat'sstate-levelpolicieshavealsoplayedacrucialroleinpromotingnaturalgas.TheGujaratGas(RegulationofTransmission,SupplyandDistribution)Actof2001andtheLNGTerminalPolicyof2012createdafavourableenvironmentforinvestmentanddevelopment.Thesepoliciesfacilitatedtheestablishmentofgas-basedindustriesandpromotedtheuseofnaturalgasinvarioussectors,includingpowergeneration,industrialapplications,andcitygasdistribution.ThecreationofSpecialEconomicZones(SEZs)inGujaratalsoplayedasignificantrolein

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attractinginvestmentsandpromotingindustrialgrowth.SEZsoff