基于Uplift Model電商平臺(tái)優(yōu)惠券分發(fā)優(yōu)化

背景模型評(píng)估InsertionFee&FinalValueFeeFinalValueFeeFVFdiscountFinalValueFeeZeroinsertionfeeTestGroupControlGroup-200K但是業(yè)務(wù)痛點(diǎn)是部分TestGroup?戶，即使沒(méi)有Campaign也會(huì)List，這樣Campaign對(duì)這部分?戶是低效率的。所以，我們核?想找到的?標(biāo)?戶是：僅在Campaign下，才會(huì)List的?戶即尋找Campaign(運(yùn)營(yíng)措施)和?戶List(?標(biāo)?為)之間的因果關(guān)系。尋找活動(dòng)敏感型用戶…1122221PersuadablePersuadable0Surethings0LostCausesDoNotDisturbs業(yè)務(wù)痛點(diǎn)對(duì)因果效應(yīng)的度量轉(zhuǎn)化為：使用Upli模型預(yù)測(cè)的因變量預(yù)測(cè)的本質(zhì)ResponseModel在Campaign下List的概率(ListwithCampaign)CorrelationUpliftModel因?yàn)镃ampaign?List的概率，PersuadableLikelihoodScore(ListwithCampaign-ListwithoutCampaign)CausationChallengeUpliftModel:1MachineLearningalgorithmXRandomForest&XgboostS-learner,T-learner,X-learner收集用戶數(shù)據(jù)搭建模型…-…-…-…-…難點(diǎn)：我們并沒(méi)有單個(gè)?戶真實(shí)的PersuadableLikelihoodScore，因此像AUC這樣傳統(tǒng)的評(píng)估指標(biāo)是?法使?的。解決思路：通過(guò)構(gòu)造鏡像?群的?式來(lái)間接拿到PersuadableLikelihoodScore對(duì)滿?CIA的樣本量計(jì)算PersuadableLikelihoodScore按照PersuadableLikelihoodScore進(jìn)??群排序在兩組?戶中，同時(shí)剔除尾部X%得分的?戶，計(jì)算兩組GetUpliftCurveDropUserwithtail2Score11l22l..●iGMVforiGMV●TargetingStrategy:DropuseriREVforiREVTargetingStrategy:DropuseriGMViREV+12K 474K -7K -8K+1K1Listin2dwithCampaign?22Listin2dw/oCampaign?33Listin5dwithCampaign?44Listin5dw/oCampaign?l-l2*4lPropensitydifference101listY/Nin2d110111Feature&Response-…-…-…-…11CampaignPeriod(2days)--22riGMViGMViREViGMViREV+235K+235K5K703K5K703K486K474K-8K-8K-7K+13K11Listin2dwithCampaign?22Listin2dw/oCampaign?222233Listin5dwithCampaign?012044Listin5dw/oCampaign?005Propensitydifference8903d11CampaignPeriod(2days)--22Campaign+pureperiod(7days)Campaign+pureperiod(7days)33-…-…---……………iGMV●●iREViGMViREV+300K+300K5K5K5K5K703K797K486K474K-8K-8K-7K+14KDropuserwithtailX%scoreiGMViREV1K8K1K8K +16K +16K-8K-7KCampaignPerformance通過(guò)電商商家補(bǔ)貼活動(dòng)為例，介紹基于UpliftModel如何構(gòu)建營(yíng)銷增益模型，其思路可廣泛應(yīng)用于各個(gè)場(chǎng)景，包括Push的分發(fā)、用戶優(yōu)惠券發(fā)放等。不同場(chǎng)景下，treatment的維度不一樣，可能會(huì)帶來(lái)的問(wèn)題?建模形式升級(jí)，需考慮多維度的建模，此類問(wèn)題可以采用多任務(wù)學(xué)習(xí)的方式，聯(lián)合其他場(chǎng)景一起建模?