財務(wù)報表盈利預(yù)測與估值表(超級精華).xls

一、 模型構(gòu)成 1. Operating（業(yè)務(wù)預(yù)測表） ：包括公司歷史業(yè)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)以及未來業(yè)務(wù)預(yù)測 2. Assumption(預(yù)測假設(shè))：包括經(jīng)營活動假設(shè)、營運資金假設(shè)、投資活動假設(shè)、融資活動假設(shè)、估值參數(shù)假設(shè) 3. Scenerio(情景分析)：包括情景分析假設(shè)與情景分析結(jié)果 4. D&A(折舊與攤銷預(yù)測)：包括固定資產(chǎn)及折舊、無形資產(chǎn)及攤銷、長期待攤費用及攤銷的預(yù)測 5. Financing(財務(wù)費用預(yù)測)：包括現(xiàn)金、短期借款、利息收入、利息費用與財務(wù)費用預(yù)測 6. BS(資產(chǎn)負債表及預(yù)測) 7. IS（利潤表及預(yù)測） 8. SCF(現(xiàn)金流量表及預(yù)測) 9. FCF（自由現(xiàn)金流預(yù)測） ：計算企業(yè)自由現(xiàn)金流 10. Valuation(絕對估值結(jié)果)：包括 APV WACC DDM AE EVA 估值模型，及各種估值結(jié)果的敏感性分析 11. Ratios(相關(guān)比率數(shù)據(jù)) 12. Summary(輸出結(jié)果及報表)：包括三大表以及相關(guān)比率的輸出、報告首頁的財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)表 13. 原始報表由 WIND 鏈接導入 14. 單季度利潤表由 WIND 鏈接導入 二、 使用說明 1. 先關(guān)閉所有 EXCEL,打開 WIND，然后打開本文件，在 Assumption 輸入所要分析的公司代碼，模型將自動更新歷史財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù) 2. 預(yù)測公司未來業(yè)務(wù)，完成 Assumption 表格，這是模型最關(guān)鍵部分 3. 確定公司的相關(guān)假設(shè)前提，完成 Assumption 表格，具體假設(shè)參數(shù)的選取視行業(yè)與公司情況而定 4. 需要手工輸入的部分完成后，模型自動生成預(yù)測期各年的三大表、估值結(jié)果 5. 校驗數(shù)據(jù)，主頁看預(yù)測結(jié)果是否合理、資產(chǎn)負債表是否配平 6. Summary 表中的三大表，DCF 估值表可以直接拷貝至報告，財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)簡表可直接拷貝至報告首頁 三、 注意事項 1. 表中藍色底的區(qū)域為需要人工輸入部分 2. 注意模型中公式鏈接，以免引用混亂，盡量不要對單元格采取“拖動”操作 3. 固定資產(chǎn)預(yù)測要注意與資產(chǎn)負債表的固定資產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)匹配 4. IS 表中，股利一項實際為上一年的現(xiàn)金股利，上一年度利潤分配實際在下一年發(fā)放，因此體現(xiàn)為下一年現(xiàn)金流出 一、 模型構(gòu)成 1. Operating（業(yè)務(wù)預(yù)測表） ：包括公司歷史業(yè)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)以及未來業(yè)務(wù)預(yù)測 2. Assumption(預(yù)測假設(shè))：包括經(jīng)營活動假設(shè)、營運資金假設(shè)、投資活動假設(shè)、融資活動假設(shè)、估值參數(shù)假設(shè) 3. Scenerio(情景分析)：包括情景分析假設(shè)與情景分析結(jié)果 4. D&A(折舊與攤銷預(yù)測)：包括固定資產(chǎn)及折舊、無形資產(chǎn)及攤銷、長期待攤費用及攤銷的預(yù)測 5. Financing(財務(wù)費用預(yù)測)：包括現(xiàn)金、短期借款、利息收入、利息費用與財務(wù)費用預(yù)測 6. BS(資產(chǎn)負債表及預(yù)測) 7. IS（利潤表及預(yù)測） 8. SCF(現(xiàn)金流量表及預(yù)測) 9. FCF（自由現(xiàn)金流預(yù)測） ：計算企業(yè)自由現(xiàn)金流 10. Valuation(絕對估值結(jié)果)：包括 APV WACC DDM AE EVA 估值模型，及各種估值結(jié)果的敏感性分析 11. Ratios(相關(guān)比率數(shù)據(jù)) 12. Summary(輸出結(jié)果及報表)：包括三大表以及相關(guān)比率的輸出、報告首頁的財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)表 13. 原始報表由 WIND 鏈接導入 14. 單季度利潤表由 WIND 鏈接導入 二、 使用說明 1. 先關(guān)閉所有 EXCEL,打開 WIND，然后打開本文件，在 Assumption 輸入所要分析的公司代碼，模型將自動更新歷史財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù) 2. 預(yù)測公司未來業(yè)務(wù)，完成 Assumption 表格，這是模型最關(guān)鍵部分 3. 確定公司的相關(guān)假設(shè)前提，完成 Assumption 表格，具體假設(shè)參數(shù)的選取視行業(yè)與公司情況而定 4. 需要手工輸入的部分完成后，模型自動生成預(yù)測期各年的三大表、估值結(jié)果 5. 校驗數(shù)據(jù)，主頁看預(yù)測結(jié)果是否合理、資產(chǎn)負債表是否配平 6. Summary 表中的三大表，DCF 估值表可以直接拷貝至報告，財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)簡表可直接拷貝至報告首頁 三、 注意事項 1. 表中藍色底的區(qū)域為需要人工輸入部分 2. 注意模型中公式鏈接，以免引用混亂，盡量不要對單元格采取“拖動”操作 3. 固定資產(chǎn)預(yù)測要注意與資產(chǎn)負債表的固定資產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)匹配 4. IS 表中，股利一項實際為上一年的現(xiàn)金股利，上一年度利潤分配實際在下一年發(fā)放，因此體現(xiàn)為下一年現(xiàn)金流出 代碼代碼公司名稱公司名稱分析日期分析日期 600439.SH瑞貝卡瑞貝卡2009-10-12 1、經(jīng)營活動假設(shè)、經(jīng)營活動假設(shè)2004200520062007 營業(yè)收入增長率（YOY)50.19%8.12%40.76%15.00% 營業(yè)成本 /營業(yè)收入80.15%78.22%79.83%73.78% 營業(yè)稅率0.01%0.39%0.41%0.61% 銷售費用 /營業(yè)收入2.36%2.50%1.09%1.39% 管理費用 /營業(yè)收入2.39%3.60%3.42%2.93% 實際稅率29.34%29.86%30.32%27.39% 少數(shù)股東損益/稅前利潤0.03%0.00%0.02%0.00% 股利分配比例55.11%59.13%49.02%26.12% 2、營運資金假設(shè)、營運資金假設(shè)2004200520062007E 貨幣資金 /營業(yè)收入15.50%42.85%33.89% 應(yīng)收帳款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對于營業(yè)收入)50.9242.5646.56 其他應(yīng)收款/營業(yè)收入0.89%0.74%0.75% 應(yīng)收票據(jù)周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對于營業(yè)收入)0.000.000.00 存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對于營業(yè)成本)256.29134.69176.74 應(yīng)付票據(jù)周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對于營業(yè)成本)0.000.000.00 應(yīng)付帳款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)(相對于營業(yè)成本)43.158.8218.45 預(yù)付帳款增加 /營業(yè)成本1.38%2.46%5.18% 預(yù)收帳款(負債)增加 /營業(yè)收入0.10%0.26%-0.13% 預(yù)提費用增加 /營業(yè)收入-0.01%-0.05%0.00% 其他流動資產(chǎn)增加 /營業(yè)收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00% 其他流動負債增加 /營業(yè)收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00% 其他長期資產(chǎn)增加 /營業(yè)收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00% 其他長期負債增加 /營業(yè)收入增加0.00%3.53%0.46% 壞帳準備 /應(yīng)收帳款 短期投資跌價準備 歷史數(shù)據(jù)歷史數(shù)據(jù) 存貨跌價準備(含工程虧損準備) 長期投資減值準備 固定資產(chǎn)減值準備 在建工程減值準備 3、投資活動假設(shè)、投資活動假設(shè)2004200520062007 I 資本開支資本開支 期末固定資產(chǎn)原值22226.71 期末累計折舊3948.94 期末固定資產(chǎn)減值準備0.00 3102.1-678.7619.90 無形資產(chǎn)投資 長期待攤費用增加 固定資產(chǎn)的折舊年限平均為15年 殘值率為5.00%年折舊率=6.33% 新增固定資產(chǎn)折舊率6.00% 現(xiàn)有無形資產(chǎn)攤銷年限為15年 新增無形資產(chǎn)攤銷年限為15年 現(xiàn)有長期待攤費用攤銷年限為10年 新增長期待攤費用攤銷年限為10年 II 金融投資及股權(quán)投資金融投資及股權(quán)投資 交易性金融資產(chǎn)投資 可供出售金融資產(chǎn)投資 持有至到期投資 長期股權(quán)投資 投資性房地產(chǎn) 4、融資活動假設(shè)、融資活動假設(shè)2004200520062007 貸款貸款 銀行長期貸款增加額 債券或短融債券或短融 期初余額 債券發(fā)行數(shù)量 債券償還 可轉(zhuǎn)債可轉(zhuǎn)債 期初余額 可轉(zhuǎn)換債當期發(fā)行/(贖回） 可轉(zhuǎn)債當期轉(zhuǎn)股 轉(zhuǎn)股價格 轉(zhuǎn)股股數(shù) 股票融資股票融資 發(fā)行股數(shù) 發(fā)行價格 發(fā)行費用所占比例 固定資產(chǎn)投資 利率假設(shè)利率假設(shè) a、最低貨幣資金為營業(yè)收入的15.00% b、銀行長期貸款利率為5.94% c、短期貸款利率為5.30% d、現(xiàn)金存款利率為0.98% f、債券利率 e、可轉(zhuǎn)債利率 5、估值參數(shù)相關(guān)假設(shè)、估值參數(shù)相關(guān)假設(shè) 總股本61,649.25 流通B股 流通A股61,649.25 B股股價 A股股價9.10匯率 無風險利率Rf=2.25% 目標債務(wù)比率=45.00% Rm=12.0% 長期增長率 = 2.00% e(levered)= 1.00 稅前Kd= 4.33% 稅后Kd=3.25% 20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E 0.47%17.48%22.66%15.09%8.52%10.40%10.16%5.95%11.41% 70.64%73.28%68.67%66.86%64.90%63.33%62.21%61.21%60.54% 0.42%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40% 3.02%3.50%3.50%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40% 3.84%5.00%4.60%4.40%4.30%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20% 10.86%20.00%20.00%20.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00% 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 17.57%30.00%35.00%40.00%42.00%44.00%46.00%48.00%50.00% 20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E 27.50%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00%30.00% 24.7530.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.0030.00 1.27%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10%1.10% 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 360.75300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00300.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 27.3022.0022.0022.0022.0022.0022.0022.0022.00 -4.59%-0.50%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00% 0.51%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50%0.50% 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00% 11.83%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00% 明確預(yù)測期明確預(yù)測期長期預(yù)測期長期預(yù)測期 20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E 27363.1331112.0333986.4835923.7037892.3239876.6241868.7743864.8545862.89 5134.807092.739223.1311469.7613834.5116318.3218921.6621644.7624487.74 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 6813.684000.002000.001000.002000.002000.002000.002000.002000.00 1000.001000.001000.000.001000.001000.000.001000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 000000000 20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00 流通H股 H股股價 匯率 Ve= 561008 Vd= 50693 Ke= 12.0% Ku= 11.4% WACC= 8.06% u(ulevered)= 0.94 稅率= 25% 2017E2018E 6.11%7.72% 59.33%58.67% 0.40%0.40% 3.40%3.40% 4.20%4.20% 25.00%25.00% 0.00%0.00% 52.00%54.00% 2017E2018E 30.00%30.00% 30.0030.00 1.10%1.10% 0.000.00 300.00300.00 0.000.00 22.0022.00 3.00%3.00% 0.50%0.50% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 0.00%0.00% 5.00%5.00% 2017E2018E 47361.9148611.42 27420.6730428.56 0.001.00 1000.001000.00 0.001000.00 0.000.00 00 00 00 00 00 2017E2018E 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 0.000.00 一般情景預(yù)測 營業(yè)收入預(yù)測營業(yè)收入預(yù)測2003200420052006 工藝發(fā)條工藝發(fā)條銷量(萬條）600.00840.00960.001260.00 平均售價（元）63.9868.7065.9871.82 銷售收入（萬元）銷售收入（萬元）38,388.2457706.6663341.6190493.14 單位成本52.4958.5754.1059.77 銷售成本銷售成本31,492.4949197.6951934.2475305.32 毛利率毛利率17.96%14.75%18.01%16.78% 化纖發(fā)條化纖發(fā)條銷量(萬條）240.00450.00500.00820.00 平均售價（元）14.8917.4515.0315.91 銷售收入（萬元）銷售收入（萬元）3573.297853.807513.7313045.64 單位成本9.379.249.5810.27 銷售成本銷售成本2248.964159.284789.708419.21 毛利率毛利率37.06%47.04%36.25%35.46% 女裝假發(fā)(化纖）女裝假發(fā)(化纖）銷量(萬套）140.00210.00240.00250.00 平均售價（元）53.7047.5046.1646.13 銷售收入（萬元）銷售收入（萬元）7517.779974.9611078.2911532.42 單位成本34.0034.4730.4832.52 銷售成本銷售成本4759.387239.067314.248130.39 毛利率毛利率36.69%27.43%33.98%29.50% 教習頭教習頭銷量(萬個）18.0016.0016.0016.00 平均售價（元）80.0982.9082.3887.94 銷售收入（萬元）銷售收入（萬元）1441.541326.351318.051406.99 單位成本68.8770.2072.1282.38 銷售成本銷售成本1239.651123.231153.861318.05 毛利率毛利率14.01%15.31%12.46%6.32% 男裝頭套男裝頭套銷量(萬套）16.5016.0015.0025.00 平均售價（元）49.3852.4750.8471.11 銷售收入（萬元）銷售收入（萬元）814.83839.55762.591777.68 單位成本30.4735.0334.7730.50 銷售成本銷售成本502.77560.44521.57762.59 毛利率毛利率38.30%33.25%31.61%57.10% 人發(fā)假發(fā)人發(fā)假發(fā)銷量(萬套） 男裝頭套并入其中平均售價（元） 銷售收入（萬元）銷售收入（萬元） 單位成本 銷售成本銷售成本 毛利率毛利率 化纖發(fā)絲及阻燃纖維化纖發(fā)絲及阻燃纖維 銷量(噸） 平均售價（萬元） 銷售收入（萬元）銷售收入（萬元） 單位成本 銷售成本銷售成本 毛利率毛利率 非洲大辮非洲大辮銷量（萬條）銷量（萬條） 歷史數(shù)據(jù) 平均售價（萬元） 銷售收入（萬元）銷售收入（萬元） 單位成本 銷售成本銷售成本 毛利率毛利率 其他業(yè)務(wù)收入其他業(yè)務(wù)收入 其他業(yè)務(wù)成本其他業(yè)務(wù)成本 營業(yè)收入（萬元）營業(yè)收入（萬元）51735.6777701.3284014.27118255.87 營業(yè)收入增長率%營業(yè)收入增長率%50.19%8.12%40.76% 營業(yè)成本40243.2562279.7065713.6193935.56 毛利11492.4215421.6218300.6624320.31 綜合毛利率綜合毛利率22.21%19.85%21.78%20.57% 主營業(yè)務(wù)成本預(yù)測主營業(yè)務(wù)成本預(yù)測2003200420052006 分原料價格分原料價格 人發(fā)均價（元/千克）386.00435.00410.00460.00 化纖發(fā)絲均價（元/千克）40.0040.0041.0042.00 電均價0.300.320.340.39 煤均價220.00290.00315.00350.00 汽均價60.0065.0070.0080.00 萬條工藝發(fā)條分原料使用量萬條工藝發(fā)條分原料使用量 人發(fā)/千克1150.001150.001120.001100.00 電/度1800.001800.001750.001700.00 汽/立方米150.00150.00140.00135.00 萬條工藝發(fā)條分結(jié)構(gòu)成本（萬元）萬條工藝發(fā)條分結(jié)構(gòu)成本（萬元） 人發(fā)44.3950.0345.9250.60 輔助材料2.102.202.102.50 電、汽0.951.031.041.15 折舊費1.201.201.201.20 工資及福利3.403.603.503.90 其他費用0.450.510.340.42 合計52.4958.5754.1059.77 萬條化纖發(fā)分原料使用量萬條化纖發(fā)分原料使用量 化纖絲/噸1.151.151.101.10 電/度1000.001000.00900.00900.00 汽/立方米70.0070.0070.0065.00 萬條化纖發(fā)條分結(jié)構(gòu)成本（萬元）萬條化纖發(fā)條分結(jié)構(gòu)成本（萬元） 化纖絲4.604.604.514.62 輔助材料1.301.301.301.60 電、汽0.450.490.520.56 折舊費0.500.500.500.50 工資及福利2.202.202.502.60 其他費用0.190.150.250.39 合計9.379.249.5810.27 萬套化纖假發(fā)分原料使用量萬套化纖假發(fā)分原料使用量 化纖絲/噸2.402.402.302.30 電/度2000.002000.002000.002000.00 汽/立方米150.00150.00140.00140.00 萬套化纖假發(fā)分結(jié)構(gòu)成本(萬元）萬套化纖假發(fā)分結(jié)構(gòu)成本(萬元） 化纖絲9.609.609.439.66 輔助材料9.009.408.009.00 電、汽0.961.041.051.20 折舊費4.004.002.502.50 工資及福利9.009.009.009.00 其他費用1.441.430.501.16 合計34.0034.4730.4832.52 萬套人發(fā)假發(fā)分原料使用量萬套人發(fā)假發(fā)分原料使用量 人發(fā)/千克 電/度 汽/立方米 萬套人發(fā)假發(fā)分結(jié)構(gòu)成本(萬元）萬套人發(fā)假發(fā)分結(jié)構(gòu)成本(萬元） 人發(fā) 輔助材料 電、汽 折舊費 工資及福利 其他費用 合計 萬個教習頭分原料使用量萬個教習頭分原料使用量 人發(fā)/千克1250.001230.001220.001210.00 電/度2000.002000.002000.002000.00 汽/立方米120.00120.00120.00120.00 萬個教習頭分結(jié)構(gòu)成本萬個教習頭分結(jié)構(gòu)成本 人發(fā)48.2553.5150.0255.66 輔助材料7.006.008.0011.00 電、汽0.780.840.911.04 工資及福利7.607.008.009.00 折舊費4.002.004.004.00 其他費用1.240.851.191.68 合計合計68.8770.2072.1282.38 200720082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E 1120.001140.001260.01300.01300.01300.01300.01300.0 88.9075.7075.6079.0083.0089.0095.00100.00 99565.0486298.5695256102700107900115700123500130000 68.0457.2059.7061.6063.2064.6066.0067.60 76203.2365208.9275,222.0080,080.0082,160.0083,980.0085,800.0087,880.00 23.46%24.44%21.03%22.03%23.86%27.42%30.53%32.40% 980.001320.001560.001880.002000.002240.002500.002720.00 16.2918.6517.0017.5018.0018.2018.4018.60 15968.0724624.1526520.0032900.0036000.0040768.0046000.0050592.00 9.889.859.508.408.408.408.408.40 9680.5713005.6814820.0015792.0016800.0018816.0021000.0022848.00 39.38%47.18%44.12%52.00%53.33%53.85%54.35%54.84% 250.00320.00400480520570620660 43.0342.1141.4042.0042.0042.2042.4042.70 10756.9413474.34 16,560 20,160 21,840 24,054 26,288 28,182 28.4528.9028.0025.0025.0025.0025.0025.00 7112.329248.1911,200.0012,000.0013,000.0014,250.0015,500.0016,500.00 33.88%31.36%32.37%40.48%40.48%40.76%41.04%41.45% 16.0017.00171818181818 98.67106.6198.0102.0104.0107.0110.0112.0 1578.711812.41166618361872192619802016 89.8372.3376.0078.0080.0082.0084.0086.00 1437.301229.621,292.001,404.001,440.001,476.001,512.001,548.00 8.96%32.16%22.45%23.53%23.08%23.36%23.64%23.21% 60.0069.0090.0120.0150.0170.0190.0210.0 130.93119.39168175180184186189 7855.678237.73151202100027000312803534039690 95.5187.01118.00120.00122.00124.00126.00128.00 5730.406003.7910,620.0014,400.0018,300.0021,080.0023,940.0026,880.00 27.05%27.12%29.76%31.43%32.22%32.61%32.26%32.28% 900.002500.001000.002000.002000.004000.004000.00 1.921.922.503.003.003.003.00 1727.6048002500600060001200012000 1.611.611.902.002.002.002.00 1445.094,025.001,900.004,000.004,000.008,000.008,000.00 16.35%16.15%24.00%33.33%33.33%33.33%33.33% 200.001500.002500.002500.002500.003500.00 明確預(yù)測期 10.0010.0010.0010.0010.0010.00 2000.0015000.0025000.0025000.0025000.0035000.00 6.006.006.006.006.006.00 1200.009000.0015000.0015000.0015000.0021000.00 40.00%40.00%40.00%40.00%40.00%40.00% 266.52459.15600.00800.001000.001200.001400.001600.00 169.53370.53450.00640.00820.001000.001200.001400.00 135990.95136633.94160522.00196896.00226612.00245928.00271508.00299080.00 15.00%0.47%17.48%22.66%15.09%8.52%10.40%10.16% 100333.3596511.82117629.00135216.00151520.00159602.00171952.00186056.00 35657.6040122.1242893.061680.075092.086326.099556.0113024.0 26.22%29.36%26.72%31.33%33.14%35.10%36.67%37.79% 200720082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E 540.00440.00470.00490.00505.00515.00530.00545.00 43.0040.0038.0026.0026.0026.0026.0026.00 0.420.500.450.480.510.510.510.51 380.00580.00480.00500.00540.00540.00540.00540.00 88.00120.00100.00110.00120.00120.00120.00120.00 1080.001060.001,050.001,050.001,050.001,050.001,050.001,050.00 1600.001500.001,500.001,500.001,500.001,500.001,500.001,500.00 130.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00 58.3246.6449.3551.4553.0354.0855.6557.23 2.702.983.003.003.003.003.003.00 1.211.521.271.391.521.521.521.52 1.201.201.201.201.201.201.201.20 4.204.404.404.404.404.404.404.40 0.410.460.480.160.060.410.230.26 68.0457.2059.7061.6063.2064.6066.0067.60 1.051.051.051.051.051.051.051.05 800.00800.00800.00800.00800.00800.00800.00800.00 55.0050.0050.0050.0050.0050.0050.0050.00 4.524.203.992.732.732.732.732.73 1.701.801.801.801.801.801.801.80 0.520.640.540.590.640.640.640.64 0.200.200.200.200.200.200.200.20 2.702.802.802.802.802.802.802.80 0.250.210.170.280.230.230.230.23 9.889.859.508.408.408.408.408.40 2.202.202.102.102.102.102.102.10 2000.002000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.00 130.00130.00130.00130.00130.00130.00130.00130.00 9.468.807.985.465.465.465.465.46 7.207.607.207.207.207.207.207.20 1.231.661.391.531.661.661.661.66 1.241.241.241.241.241.241.241.24 9.009.009.009.009.009.009.009.00 0.320.601.190.570.440.440.440.44 28.4528.9028.0025.0025.0025.0025.0025.00 1.901.901.901.901.901.901.901.90 3000.003000.003,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.00 260.00260.00260.00260.00260.00260.00260.00260.00 61.5654.3464.3069.8371.9673.3975.5377.66 14.0012.0012.0012.0012.0012.0012.0012.00 2.413.272.743.003.273.273.273.27 2.002.002.002.002.002.002.002.00 14.5014.5035.0033.0032.0032.0032.0032.00 1.040.901.970.170.761.341.201.06 95.5187.01118.00120.00122.00124.00126.00128.00 1190.001180.001,180.001,180.001,180.001,180.001,180.001,180.00 2000.002000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.00 120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00120.00 64.2651.9255.4657.8259.5960.7762.5464.31 12.007.957.957.957.957.957.957.95 1.141.541.291.421.541.541.541.54 9.007.967.967.967.968.508.509.00 2.802.402.402.402.402.402.402.40 0.630.560.940.450.560.841.070.80 89.8372.3376.0078.0080.0082.0084.0086.00 2015E2016E2017E2018E 1300.01300.01300.01300.0 105.00110.00118.00123.00 136500143000153400159900 69.0070.6072.2073.60 89,700.0091,780.0093,860.0095,680.00 34.29%35.82%38.81%40.16% 2940.003100.003340.003600.00 18.8019.0019.0019.20 55272.0058900.0063460.0069120.00 8.408.408.408.40 24696.0026040.0028056.0030240.00 55.32%55.79%55.79%56.25% 700740780820 43.0043.3043.6043.90 30,100 32,042 34,008 35,998 25.0025.0025.0025.00 17,500.0018,500.0019,500.0020,500.00 41.86%42.26%42.66%43.05% 18181818 114.0116.0118.0122.0 2052208821242196 88.0090.0092.0094.00 1,584.001,620.001,656.001,692.00 22.81%22.41%22.03%22.95% 230.0250.0270.0290.0 192194196198 44160485005292057420 130.00132.00134.00136.00 29,900.0033,000.0036,180.0039,440.00 32.29%31.96%31.63%31.31% 4000.005500.005500.005500.00 3.003.003.003.00 12000165001650016500 2.002.002.002.00 8,000.0011,000.0011,000.0011,000.00 33.33%33.33%33.33%33.33% 3500.005000.005000.006000.00 長期預(yù)測期 10.0010.0010.0010.00 35000.0050000.0050000.0060000.00 6.006.006.006.00 21000.0030000.0030000.0036000.00 40.00%40.00%40.00%40.00% 1800.002000.002200.002400.00 1600.001800.002000.002200.00 316884.00353030.00374612.00403534.00 5.95%11.41%6.11%7.72% 193980.00213740.00222252.00236752.00 122904.0139290.0152360.0166782.0 38.79%39.46%40.67%41.33% 2015E2016E2017E2018E 560.00575.00590.00600.00 26.0026.0026.0026.00 0.510.510.510.51 540.00540.00540.00540.00 120.00120.00120.00120.00 1,050.001,050.001,050.001,050.00 1,500.001,500.001,500.001,500.00 120.00120.00120.00120.00 58.8060.3861.9563.00 3.003.003.003.00 1.521.521.521.52 1.201.201.201.20 4.404.404.404.40 0.080.110.130.48 69.0070.6072.2073.60 1.051.051.051.05 800.00800.00800.00800.00 50.0050.0050.0050.00 2.732.732.732.73 1.801.801.801.80 0.640.640.640.64 0.200.200.200.20 2.802.802.802.80 0.230.230.230.23 8.408.408.408.40 2.102.102.102.10 2,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.00 130.00130.00130.00130.00 5.465.465.465.46 7.207.207.207.20 1.661.661.661.66 1.241.241.241.24 9.009.009.009.00 0.440.440.440.44 25.0025.0025.0025.00 1.901.901.901.90 3,000.003,000.003,000.003,000.00 260.00260.00260.00260.00 79.8081.9484.0885.50 12.0012.0012.0012.00 3.273.273.273.27 2.002.002.002.00 32.0032.0032.0032.00 0.930.790.651.23 130.00132.00134.00136.00 1,180.001,180.001,180.001,180.00 2,000.002,000.002,000.002,000.00 120.00120.00120.00120.00 66.0867.8569.6270.80 7.957.957.957.95 1.541.541.541.54 9.009.509.5010.00 2.402.402.402.40 1.030.760.991.31 88.0090.0092.0094.00 情景分析情景分析 選擇情景2一般假設(shè)一般假設(shè) 年度年度20082009E2010E2011E2012E 1 銷售收入增長率（YOY）0.47%17.48%22.66%15.09%8.52% 2 營業(yè)成本/營業(yè)收入70.64%73.28%68.67%66.86%64.90% 3 銷售費用率3.02%3.50%3.50%3.40%3.40% 管理費用率3.84%5.00%4.60%4.40%4.30% 股利分配比例17.57%30.00%35.00%40.00%42.00% 1樂觀假設(shè)樂觀假設(shè) 銷售收入增長率（YOY）0.52%19.23%24.93%16.60%9.38% 營業(yè)成本/營業(yè)收入69.22%71.81%67.30%65.53%63.60% 銷售費用率2.87%3.33%3.33%3.23%3.23% 管理費用率3.64%4.75%4.37%4.18%4.09% 股利分配比例22.57%35.00%40.00%45.00%47.00% 2一般假設(shè)一般假設(shè) 銷售收入增長率（YOY）0.47%17.48%22.66%15.09%8.52% 營業(yè)成本/營業(yè)收入70.64%73.28%68.67%66.86%64.90% 銷售費用率3.02%3.50%3.50%3.40%3.40% 管理費用率3.84%5.00%4.60%4.40%4.30% 股利分配比例17.57%30.00%35.00%40.00%42.00% 3保守預(yù)測保守預(yù)測 銷售收入增長率（YOY）0.43%15.73%20.39%13.58%7.67% 營業(yè)成本/營業(yè)收入72.05%74.74%70.05%68.20%66.20% 銷售費用率3.17%3.68%3.68%3.57%3.57% 管理費用率4.03%5.25%4.83%4.62%4.52% 股利分配比例12.57%25.00%30.00%35.00%37.00% 情景分析結(jié)果情景分析結(jié)果20082009E2010E2011E2012E 營業(yè)收入營業(yè)收入136634160522196896226612245928 樂觀假設(shè)樂觀假設(shè)1136634162911203518237305259555 一般假設(shè)一般假設(shè)2136634160522196896226612245928 保守預(yù)測保守預(yù)測3136634158133190383216242232831 營業(yè)利潤營業(yè)利潤2487723447403245239062686 樂觀假設(shè)樂觀假設(shè)12487726952454555915570734 一般假設(shè)一般假設(shè)22487723447403245239062686 保守預(yù)測保守預(yù)測32487720031354514606955231 凈利潤凈利潤2205218757322594191247014 樂觀假設(shè)樂觀假設(shè)122052.021561.836363.947324.153050.1 一般假設(shè)一般假設(shè)222052.018757.232259.141911.947014.4 保守預(yù)測保守預(yù)測322052.016025.028360.936855.141423.2 EPS0.470.300.520.680.76 樂觀假設(shè)樂觀假設(shè)10.470.350.590.770.86 一般假設(shè)一般假設(shè)20.470.300.520.680.76 保守預(yù)測保守預(yù)測30.470.260.460.600.67 2013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018E 10.40%10.16%5.95%11.41%6.11%7.72% 63.33%62.21%61.21%60.54%59.33%58.67% 3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40% 4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20% 44.00%46.00%48.00%50.00%52.00%54.00% 11.44%11.17%6.55%12.55%6.72%8.49% 62.07%60.97%59.99%59.33%58.14%57.50% 3.23%3.23%3.23%3.23%3.23%3.23% 3.99%3.99%3.99%3.99%3.99%3.99% 49.00%51.00%53.00%55.00%57.00%59.00% 10.40%10.16%5.95%11.41%6.11%7.72% 63.33%62.21%61.21%60.54%59.33%58.67% 3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40%3.40% 4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20%4.20% 44.00%46.00%48.00%50