BHPBILLITONLTD(BHP.AX)1102

1、52 48 44 40 36 32 1 deutsche bank markets research rating buy australasia australia company bhp billiton ltd date 31 october 2012 company update m they were recently awarded the option to build two new berths at burgess point (see figure 2) by the port hedland port authority (phpa). production from

2、others players in the inner harbour is looking less likely (referencing hancock and atlas) there is now a use it or lose clause between the phpa and other players (and bhpb will wait for this to play out) berths and allocation can now be reallocated to existing players by the phpa (105mtpa of a and

3、b class is yet to be built) these changes have increased the probability of bhpb being awarded some additional capacity in the inner harbour. however, bhpb will not allocate significant capex unless they secure sufficient additional a and b class capacity beyond 240mtpa (see figure 3 for capacity an

4、d class allocation by company). in the meantime they will try and fill the wedge” of available d class capacity, which is capacity that is left over after a and b class capacity has been used. plenty of d class capacity is available considering the inner harbour is rated at 495mtpa (but is potential

5、ly higher depending on ship movements and ship size) as only c. 275mtpa of capacity is currently being utilized. in our view, bhpb should be able to capture between 270-300mtpa of shipping capacity over the long run. page 4deutsche bank ag/sydney 31 october 2012 m cod 5.0% on a d/e of 30%; beta is 1

6、.20). our price target is set broadly in line with our npv, which assumed a long term audusd of 0.80, long term oil of us$110/bbl, us natural gas of us$4.75/mmbtu, iron ore fine of us$80/t (cif asia), coking coal of us$150/t, copper us$2.75/lb (all real). risks the key risks to our forecasts include

7、 variance in commodity prices and exchange rates vs. our estimates. downside risks include the ability to continue to deliver on planned growth at reasonable costs, particularly the mega projects. delivery risk exists on the large iron ore expansions in the pilbara, jansen potash, the olympic dam ex

8、pansion project and the petroleum growth projects (both us onshore and the gom). a potential near-term slowdown in chinese steel demand may result in lower iron ore and coking coal demand and therefore lower bulk commodity prices. page 12deutsche bank ag/sydney 7. 8. 7. 31 october 2012 m as a result

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