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1、52 48 44 40 36 32 1 deutsche bank markets research rating buy australasia australia company bhp billiton ltd date 31 october 2012 company update m they were recently awarded the option to build two new berths at burgess point (see figure 2) by the port hedland port authority (phpa). production from
2、others players in the inner harbour is looking less likely (referencing hancock and atlas) there is now a use it or lose clause between the phpa and other players (and bhpb will wait for this to play out) berths and allocation can now be reallocated to existing players by the phpa (105mtpa of a and
3、b class is yet to be built) these changes have increased the probability of bhpb being awarded some additional capacity in the inner harbour. however, bhpb will not allocate significant capex unless they secure sufficient additional a and b class capacity beyond 240mtpa (see figure 3 for capacity an
4、d class allocation by company). in the meantime they will try and fill the wedge” of available d class capacity, which is capacity that is left over after a and b class capacity has been used. plenty of d class capacity is available considering the inner harbour is rated at 495mtpa (but is potential
5、ly higher depending on ship movements and ship size) as only c. 275mtpa of capacity is currently being utilized. in our view, bhpb should be able to capture between 270-300mtpa of shipping capacity over the long run. page 4deutsche bank ag/sydney 31 october 2012 m cod 5.0% on a d/e of 30%; beta is 1
6、.20). our price target is set broadly in line with our npv, which assumed a long term audusd of 0.80, long term oil of us$110/bbl, us natural gas of us$4.75/mmbtu, iron ore fine of us$80/t (cif asia), coking coal of us$150/t, copper us$2.75/lb (all real). risks the key risks to our forecasts include
7、 variance in commodity prices and exchange rates vs. our estimates. downside risks include the ability to continue to deliver on planned growth at reasonable costs, particularly the mega projects. delivery risk exists on the large iron ore expansions in the pilbara, jansen potash, the olympic dam ex
8、pansion project and the petroleum growth projects (both us onshore and the gom). a potential near-term slowdown in chinese steel demand may result in lower iron ore and coking coal demand and therefore lower bulk commodity prices. page 12deutsche bank ag/sydney 7. 8. 7. 31 october 2012 m as a result
9、, the recommendations may differ and the price targets and estimates of each may vary widely. in august 2009, deutsche bank instituted a new policy whereby analysts may choose not to set or maintain a target price of certain issuers under coverage with a hold rating. in particular, this will typical
10、ly occur for hold rated stocks having a market cap smaller than most other companies in its sector or region. we believe that such policy will allow us to make best use of our resources. please visit our website at http:/ to determine the target price of any stock. the financial instruments discusse
11、d in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed investment decisions. stock transactions can lead to losses as a result of price fluctuations and other factors. if a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investors currency,
12、a change in exchange rates may adversely affect the investment. past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. deutsche bank may with respect to securities covered by this report, sell to or buy from customers on a principal basis, and consider this report in deciding to trade on
13、a proprietary basis. unless governing law provides otherwise, all transactions should be executed through the deutsche bank entity in the investors home jurisdiction. in the u.s. this report is approved and/or distributed by deutsche bank securities inc., a member of the nyse, the nasd, nfa and sipc
14、. in germany this report is approved and/or communicated by deutsche bank ag frankfurt authorized by the bafin. in the united kingdom this report is approved and/or communicated by deutsche bank ag london, a member of the london stock exchange and regulated by the financial services authority for th
15、e conduct of investment business in the uk and authorized by the bafin. this report is distributed in hong kong by deutsche bank ag, hong kong branch, in korea by deutsche securities korea co. this report is distributed in singapore by deutsche bank ag, singapore branch, and recipients in singapore
16、of this report are to contact deutsche bank ag, singapore branch in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. where this report is issued or promulgated in singapore to a person who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined in
17、 the applicable singapore laws and regulations), deutsche bank ag, singapore branch accepts legal responsibility to such person for the contents of this report. in japan this report is approved and/or distributed by deutsche securities inc. the information contained in this report does not constitut
18、e the provision of investment advice. in australia, retail clients should obtain a copy of a product disclosure statement (pds) relating to any financial product referred to in this report and consider the pds before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. deutsche bank ag johannesburg is incorporated in the federal republic of germany (branch register number in south africa: 1998/003298/10). additional information relative to securiti
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