建筑工程專題報告之一：全面受益城鎮(zhèn)化精選低估值藍(lán)籌0114

1、/ / () 2013114s10105101200712012/13 3.68 7%/8% 20122020 2.1 s1010512070003 250020124303 yoy+24.7% 2013 1706/18002012/1312900/14200 yoy+10% 5160/5400 yoy+5% 2012/13 s1010512080001 2013111 14 8 12/13/14 a pe14/12/10 12/13/14pe 30% 300 10/9/71114cagr0.4%a 20% 1

2、114 a cagr18.8% h a+h 16%/17%/19% a/h / a / /h 10% 0% -10% 201201162012052120120911201301 20122013 1 /sotp 20 36.7%h / a / 2 . 2012-09-07 3 2012-09-07 1112e eps 13e14e1112e pe 13e14e pb 10.63 8.81 3.68 3.60 7.58 0.55 0.41 0.45 0.38 0.48 0.58 0.72 0.50 0.43 0.67 0.73 0.92 0.58 0.51 0.86 0.92 1.09 0.6

3、7 0.62 1.07 19 21 8 10 16 18 12 7 8 11 15 10 6 7 9 12 8 5 6 7 1.88 1.63 1.15 1.16 2.19 2013111 h 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 13 14 15 16 18 . 1 . 1 . 3 . 4 . 4 . 6 . 7 . 7 . 8 . 8 . 9 . 10 .10 .11 1 2 gdp gdp . 1 . 1 . 2 . 2 . 2 6 2011 12 20072012 . 3 . 3 . 4 . 4 . 6 . 6 . 6 . 7 . 7 . 8 . 8 172008a/h.10 .13 1

4、9 20 1 2 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 17 .14 .14 . 2 . 4 3 8 2012 14 2011 enr sotp . 5 . 5 . 5 . 8 . 9 top10. 9 .10 .11 .11 .12 .13 .14 .15 .15 .16 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20101990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2013 2011-2020 20180 11040 10%0.3%0.8% 38%(r

5、ossenthal, s.s.,2004) 1995 30%gdp 1 gdp gdp2 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1 6.912.53 40% 201034.2% 1 3 25,500 25,000 24,500 24,000 23,500 23,000 22,500 22,000 21,500 4 2,500 2,000 1,5

6、00 1,000 500 21,000 2008200920102011 0 2008200920102011 windwind *12 2 5 3 1 gdp 50% 80% 2 gdp4%96% 85% 93% 30%700% 62011% 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 wind 1 2 3 7 3 2007-022007-082008-022008-082009-022009-082010-022010-082011-022011-082012-022012-08 2007-022007-082008-022008-082009-022009-0820

7、10-022010-082011-022011-082012-022012-08 25971 161100 8 40.00 35.00 30.00 25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 wind % 9 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 -10.00 wind % 2012 16.3pct 1 11326236 66417 2012/2013 20.7% 13.95% 20.7%/22% 20127% 20138% 2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e

8、20112015e 1772 3372 6006 7075 4611 5160 5400 5400 5400 %14%90%78%18%-35%12%5%0%0% 648968819669 11482 12596 12900 14200 14200 1420068096 %4%6%41%19%10%2%10%0%0% 88698710601171140515001600170017007905 %2%11%7%11%20%7%7%6%0% 10821308203623612264238026202800280012864 %26%21%56%16%-4%5%10%7%0% 4575685956

9、477508008509009004200 %45%24%5%9%16%7%6%6%0% 10271604170323283452420044004600460021252 % % 10%56% 2879 6% 3711 29% 37% 3641 -2% 48% 3712 2% 22% 3900 5% 5% 4200 8% 5% 4500 7% 0% 4500 0% 20812 11713 17599 24780 28705 28790 30840 33270 34100 34100 %9%50%41%16%0%7%8%2%0% “” 7359 3300 5 20122020 4 3.68 2

10、500 2.1 32011 2015 15 58 1699 - 2012 34 70 2000 - 1748 34 96 3300 16500 4 11027201154.5% 2011 372 454 84 231 85 2012-2020 678 516 213 290 245 2020 1050 970 297 521 330 * 20112011-2020 51 248 181 100 168 2020 51 248 181 100 168 57 50 48 70 179 4 170 118 46 300 246 128 227 168 94 370 425 132 * 1967 23

11、0 56 59 162 120 86 230 56 59 162 120 90 232 90 232 75 36 75 36 87 26 19 100 140 90 313 187 140 116 332 54 48 60 50 54 48 60 50 1699 223 865 7359 223 865 9058 * 130 375 130 375 * 5 5 2011 23% 9% 80% 29.8% 80% n/a 21.9% n/a 10% 22.70% 6 10 5 10m1-210m1-510m1-8 10m1-11 11m1-311m1-611m1-9 11m1-12 12m1-4

12、12m1-7 12m1-10 - 16.80% 20124303 20122030 24.7% 2013 2012 1011 , 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 20121-11 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1028 31.5% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% 2.6pct 2012 2013 12 20072012 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2012 2100 0.18 1705.8

13、2.49 34.5% 07a08a09a10a11a12a 20153.42 0.41 8000 20132015 4000 1 0.93 2015202011. 4%15% “1. 20.40.74 6 20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 2012e2013e2014e2015e 08030805080708090811090109030905090709090911100110031005100710091011110111031105110711091111120112031205120712091211 2009 0.3 2 3 0

14、.4 65% 25% 6.7% 2012 1115069.73.1% 4319.39%2011711701 142% 1314 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% 2000 1500 1000 500 0 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 2013 2013 3000 4000 54002.6 2013 90% 2012 2.1 110 9974 11343 1.0% 0.5% 1 9 1 9 2.3 10144115.7% 10%14200 2012129002013 7

15、0901090409070910100110041007101011011104110711101201120412071210 1516 15000 10000 5000 0 2010 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 70% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% 80% 20% abloomberg 14 8 2012/13/14 2012/13/14 pe pe 14/12/10 10/9/7 6 epspe 20112012e2013e20

16、14e20112012e2013e vinci bouygues bilfinger skanska nagarjuna maeda kumho nippo acs acciona jaiprakash sacyr valleherm daewoo kajima 37.1 22.81 72.88 109.1 54.95 445 3500 1276 19.56 62.86 93.1 1.7 9510 296 eur eur eur sek inr jpy krw jpy eur eur inr eur krw jpy 3.48 3.06 6.53 18.31 2.14 18.06 -896.64

17、 62.74 3.09 3.4 8.1 -3.72 430 24.87 3.46 2.54 5.7 8.24 4 27.64 167.92 88.43 2.52 2.3 6.24 0.22 886.93 18.65 3.67 2.84 6.35 9.13 4.84 30.59 181.43 91.55 2.72 3.17 8.77 0.32 1053.54 19.79 3.9 2.9 7.41 8.8 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 5.48 n/a n/a n/a n/a 11 9 13 13 14 16 21 14 8 27 15 8 11 16 10 8 11 12 11 15

18、19 14 7 20 11 5 9 15 10 8 10 12 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 11 n/a n/a n/a n/a 141210 bloomberg2013111 8 5 7 11 eps 12e13e14e11 pe 12e13e14e pbpeg 3.68 3.60 7.58 5.04 6.18 3.21 8.81 10.63 0.45 0.38 0.48 0.72 0.64 0.31 0.41 0.55 0.50 0.43 0.67 0.72 0.67 0.34 0.72 0.58 0.58 0.51 0.86 0.80 0.76 0.40 0.92 0.73

19、0.67 0.62 1.07 0.90 0.86 0.44 1.09 0.92 8 10 16 7 10 10 21 19 7 8 11 7 9 9 12 18 6 7 9 6 8 8 10 15 5 6 7 6 7 7 8 12 1.15 1.16 2.19 1.01 1.11 0.91 1.63 1.88 0.58 0.53 0.52 0.89 0.92 0.86 0.56 1.03 wind20131 13 11 10 pb 971.380.74 a1 enr 202010 4.9%/7.7% 3 2 9.8% 2012 7 8 skanska racciona 20112014cagr

20、 18.8% 0.4% vinci bouygues bilfinge 8 2012 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2012 2011 2 1 3 4 5 9 8 6 7 10 enr acs top10 china railway group ltd., beijing, china china railway construction corp. ltd., beijing, china china state construction engg corp., beijing, china vinci, rueil-malmaison, france china communi

21、cations construction grp. (ltd.), beijing, china grupo acs, madrid, spain hochtief ag, essen, germany bouygues, paris, france china metallurgical group corp., beijing, china bechtel, san francisco, calif., u.s.a. :enr h a+h 2013 1 11 ah ah16% 17%19% 9 17 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 2008a/h 0 2008-01-01200

22、9-01-012010-01-012011-01-012012-01-012013-01-01 wind a/h ah 2013.1.11 2012 1 aha2012a3007.55% a 22.91%h h h2012 a h 2 a a+h 12 a/h a 2013 h 9 11 eps 12e13e14e11 pe 12e13e14e pb 10.63 8.81 3.68 3.60 7.58 0.55 0.41 0.45 0.38 0.48 0.58 0.72 0.50 0.43 0.67 0.73 0.92 0.58 0.51 0.86 0.92 1.09 0.67 0.62 1.

23、07 19 21 8 10 16 18 12 7 8 11 15 10 6 7 9 12 8 5 6 7 1.88 1.63 1.15 1.16 2.19 2013111 10 / 201230% 10% ipo 20% 2012 0.02/0.03/0.04/0.04 20122015eps 2012/13pe18/15 2012/13 pe23/17 10 201320pe pb 11 eps 12e13e11 pe 12e13e 002398.sz 002140.sz 002116.sz 18.85 21.70 13.67 2.79 7.83 4.72 0.88 0.62 0.44 0.

24、99 0.82 0.61 1.28 1.09 0.83 21 35 31 19 26 23 15 20 16 292317 300248.sz10.631.880.550.580.73191815 wind2013111pb epswind 2012/2013/2014eps0.58/0.73/0.92 2011 2014 2013 11 cagr 20 pe 18.8% 14.60 2010 1149 2011 1268 2012e 1137 2013e 1344 2014e 1569 pe pb yoy% yoy% % % 85.1 95 17.0 30.2 22.0 0.40 27 4.

25、4 10.4 132 38.9 32.2 10.1 0.55 19 1.9 -10.3 140 6.0 32.9 9.9 0.58 18 1.8 18.2 175 25.1 34.3 11.3 0.73 15 1.7 16.7 221 26.5 34.5 12.9 0.92 12 1.5 2013111 11 / 7500 1500 2012 s21101.8- 2012 - 1.49 12 32% eps0.30 0.40 2012 0.72eps 0.71 2013 72% 2012 20124 8 10 2 2013 1.3 2013 10-12 10% 20122012420136-8

26、 2013 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 5.9346 7.3882 14.8374 11.0836 1.1721 3.0752 3.2 3.4 7.4 5.5 0.6 1.5 2.7 4 7.4 5.5 0.6 1.6 2010.11 2010.11 2011.12 2011.12 2012.10 2012.4 2014.6 2014.6 2014.6 2014.6 8 8 6 6 6 6 20121 5.93201212 5 bt bt 2012 339 2013 10-20 10 15 12 0811 0901 0903 0905 0907 0909 0911 1001 1003 100

27、5 1007 1009 1011 1101 1103 1105 1107 1109 1111 1201 1203 1205 1207 1209 1211 1301 / 18 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 wind bt 2012/2013/2014eps0.72/0.92/1.09 8.812012/2013/201412/10/8pe 20131510.8013.70 13 2010 932 2011 1142 2012e 1552 2013e 1909 2014e 2215 pe pb yoy% yoy% % -47.1 228 43.2 13.5 0.46 6.99

28、19 1.3 22.6 205 -10.2 16.1 0.41 6.21 21 1.4 35.9 358 74.9 34.2 0.72 5.68 12 1.6 23.0 457 27.4 38.8 0.92 6.32 10 1.4 16.1 542 18.6 39.6 1.09 7.08 8 1.2 2013111 2012 1-11 840017.4%1-102.5pct 1-11101229%1-100.7bpt 2012q311163 10%29% 148720121314 + 2009 2640 30 13 hk10 so 19 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 20

29、 sotp 0688.h 36.7% 33111.hk 2013111 054 110495% 5020121.1 60%20127pe 20121318pea2012 11 14otp nav3177.471.062001210 nav7799.802.60 53.13% 201110pe8122.202.71 sotp (-) (+) 4566.54 2911.10 17444.03 1.52 0.97 5.81 3.68 2013 20012 1 9 11 36.70% 14 / () () / () () 2012/13/14eps0.50/0.58/0.67 201210pe5.00

30、 15 2010 370418 2011 482837 2012e 547865 2013e 626537 2014e 710402 yoy% yoy% % roe% 42.4 9237 61.2 12.1 12.0 30.3 13537 46.5 12.0 15.2 13.5 15074 11.4 11.9 15.2 14.4 17412 15.5 11.8 15.5 13.4 19992 14.8 11.8 15.7 pe pb eps()( )0.31 2.57 12.0 1.4 0.45 2.97 8.2 1.2 0.50 3.31 7.3 1.1 0.58 3.75 6.4 1.0

31、0.67 4.25 5.5 0.8 2013111 20122011 281220121270.56 50% 82% 2012.11.1612.27 pe 9600 2012 5.20 1%6 2012h1 2012/13/14 eps 82% 1.82% 0.43/0.51/0.62 201212 16 2010 101494 2011 113471 2012e 127685 2013e 150129 2014e 176251 yoy% yoy% % roe% 34.4 2911 27.4 12.5 27.0 11.8 3619 24.3 14.4 13.3 12.5 4153 14.8 1

32、4.6 13.7 17.6 4918 18.4 14.6 14.4 17.4 5914 20.2 14.7 15.3 pe pb eps()( )0.30 1.63 11 2.0 0.38 2.84 9 1.1 0.43 3.17 7 1.0 0.51 3.55 6 0.9 0.62 4.02 5 0.8 2013111 15 / 20121-11848.9 10.3%1156.26.1% 1-11 47526.3%1157.212.5% 20132013 15%40%2014 201434%40% 2012/13/14eps0.67/0.86/1.07 2011-2014 15 pe cag

33、r30.6% 10.00 2012 17 2010 32583 2011 43538 2012e 57783 2013e 73832 2014e 92333 pe pb yoy% yoy% % 16.1 1659 69.4 14.5 12.7 0.34 2.64 23 2.9 33.6 2376 43.2 14.3 15.6 0.48 3.09 16 2.5 32.7 3316 39.6 14.9 18.8 0.67 3.57 11 2.1 27.8 4238 27.8 14.9 20.6 0.86 4.17 9 1.8 25.1 5286 24.7 14.8 21.8 1.07 4.92 7 1.5 2013111 16 - “” analyst certification i ii the analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of