國(guó)際貿(mào)易及其對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響【外文翻譯】

1、本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯外文題目： Internation Trade and its Effects on Economic Growth in China 出 處： IZA DP No. 5151 2021 作 者： Peng Sun and Almas Heshmati 原 文：International Trade and its Effects on Economic Growth in ChinaABSTRACTInternational trade, as a major factor of openness, has made an increasingly significant

2、 contribution to economic growth Chinese international trade has experienced rapid expansion together with its dramatic economic growth which has made the country to target the world as its market. This research discusses the role of international trade in Chinas economic growth. It starts with a re

3、view of conceptions as well as the evolution of Chinas international trade regime and the policy that China has taken in favor of trade sectors. In addition, Chinas international trade performance is analyzed extensively. This research then evaluates the effects of international trade on Chinas econ

4、omic growth through examining improvement in productivity. Both econometric and non-parametric approaches are applied based on a 6-year balanced panel data of 31 provinces of China from 2002 to 2007. For the econometric approach, a stochastic frontier production function is estimated and province sp

5、ecific determinants of inefficiency in trade identified. For the non-parametric approach, the Divisia index of each province/region is calculated to be used as the benchmark. The study demonstrates that increasing participation in the global trade helps China reap the static and dynamic benefits, st

6、imulating rapid national economic growth Both international trade volume and trade structure towards high-tech exports result in positive effects on Chinas regional productivity. The eastern region of China has been developing most rapidly while the central and western provinces have been lagging be

7、hind in terms of both economic growth and participation in international trade. Policy implications are drawn from the empirical results accordingly.1. IntroductionChinas international trade has experienced rapid expansion together with its dramatic economic growth which has made the country target

8、the world as its market. The stable political system, vast natural resources and abundant skilled labor in China have made it a modern global factory. Discussions of the role that international trade plays in promoting economic growth and productivity in particular, have been ongoing since several d

9、ecades ago.A core finding from the comprehensive literature shows that internationally active countries tend to be more productive than countries which only produce for the domestic market. Due to liberalization and globalization,a country's economy has become much more closely associated with e

10、xternal factors such as openness. Thus, conducting a study on the effects of international trade on economic growth is of great significance in this globalized era.It helps policymakers map out appropriate policies by determining the source of productivity growth with respect to international trade.

11、 Since the initiation of economic reforms and the adoption of the open door policy, international trade and Chinas economy have experienced dramatic growth. Chinas integration into the global economy has largely contributed to its sustained economic growth. Some of the industries with comparative ad

12、vantages began to acquire a high level of specialization, and China has achieved a high growth rate of GDP, as well as an enormous inflow of hard currency and increase in employment. Additionally, Chinas participation in international trade has also contributed to improvement in productivity of dome

13、stic industries and advancement of technology. On one hand, large imports of machinery goods in the early 1990s had an immediate impact on productivity through the application of technology embodied in them. On the other hand, the level of science and technology in China increased dramatically due t

14、o the effect of “l(fā)earning by doing. Therefore, research on how international trade contributed to Chinas economic growth can serve as a distinguishing case study demonstrating how a latecomer catches up with forerunners by increasing its participation on the global stage. This research starts with l

15、iterature review from the perspective of international trade effect on economic growth in part 2. In part 3, the theoretical model and estimation procedures of this research are discussed respectively. Both econometric and non-parametric approaches are applied in this research. The data and variable

16、s used in this research are explained in part 4. The characteristics of a 6-year balanced panel data of 31 provinces/regions of China from 2002 to 2007 are discussed, followed by the analysis of each variable in the model. Part 5 presents empirical results according to the model constructed in this

17、research by offering an in-depth explanation of each coefficient and comparison with the previous pieces of research. In part 6 and 7, policy implications and the main conclusion are drawn respectively.2. Literature ReviewEmpirically, there appears to be good evidence that international trade affect

18、s economic growth positively by facilitating capital accumulation, industrial structure upgrading, technological progress and institutional advancement. Specifically, increased imports of capital and intermediate products, which are not available in the domestic market, may result in the rise in pro

19、ductivity of manufacturing. More active participation in the international market by promoting exports leads to more intense competition and improvement in terms of productivity. Learning-by-doing may be more rapid in export industry thanks to the knowledge and technology spillover effects. In addit

20、ion, the benefits of international trade are mainly generated from the external environment, e are comprehensive empirical studies on the impact of trade on economic growth. Before the 1960s, research on trade effects was limited to a few specific countries. With the development of econometrics, how

21、ever, many complicated methods based on a mathematical model were introduced to analyze the interactive impact between trade and economic growth. So far, the discussions in this area have been generally divided into two categories. One focuses on the causality relationship between international trad

22、e and economic growth to examine whether economic growth is propelled by international trade or vice versa. The other mainly discusses the contribution of foreign trade to economic growth. The OECD conducted a study on the impact that trade had on the average income per population. According to the

23、result, the elasticity of international trade was 0.2, which was statistically significant.Maizels discussed the positive relationship between international trade and economic development by a rank correlation analysis among 7 developed countries. Kavoussi (1984), after studying 73 middle and low-in

24、come developing countries, found out that higher rates of economic growth was strongly correlated with higher rates of export growth. He showed that the positive correlation between exports and growth holds for both middle- and low-income countries, but the effects tend to diminish according to the

25、lev and Dollar argued that outward-oriented developing economies achieve indeed much more rapid growth than inward-oriented developing ones.Sachs and Warner constructed a policy index to analyze economic growth rate, and found that the average growth rate in the period after trade liberalization is

26、significantly higher than that in the period before liberalization. Kraay investigated whether firms “l(fā)earn from exporting using a panel data of 2105 Chinese industrial enterprises between 1988 and 1992, and found the “l(fā)earning effects are most pronounced among established exporters. Keller discusse

27、d that international trade which involves importing intermediate goods of a high quality contributed to the diffusion of technology. Frankel and Romer constructed measures of the geographic component of countries trade, and used those measures to obtain instrumental variables estimates of the effect

28、 of trade on income.The resultshowed that trade has a quantitatively large and robust positive effect on income even though it is only moderately significant statistically. Coe and Helpman studied the international R&D diffusion among 21 OECD countries and Israel over the period of 1971-1990, an

29、d found that international trade is an important channel of transferring technology. In sum, most empirical studies support the positive effects of openness on economic growth. From the comprehensive literature, both static and dynamic gains from trade could be found. The static gains from internati

30、onal trade refer to the improvement in output or social welfare with fixed amount of input or resource supply. They are mainly the results from the increase in foreign reserves and national welfare. Firstly, opening up to the global market offers an opportunity to trade at international prices rathe

31、r than domestic prices. This opportunity provides a gain from exchange, as domestic consumers can buy cheaper imported goods and producers can export goods at higher foreign prices. Furthermore, there is a gain from specialization. The new prices established in free trade encourage industries to rea

32、llocate production from goods that the closed economy was producing at a relatively high cost to goods that it was producing at a relatively low cost .By utilizing its comparative advantage in international trade, a country could increase the total output and social welfare. Another long-term benefi

33、t of trade is the dynamic gain. This refers to the change in production structure thanks to the adoption of new technologies from abroad and an increase in the production scale. Firstly,international trade sectors based on comparative advantage always enjoy the economies of scale through the expansi

34、on in production stimulated by the massive demand from the global market. This results in the decrease of production costs, a large amount of accumulation of capital and increase in employment. Secondly, international trade is one of the channels supporting technological spillovers among countries w

35、hich results in a favorable impact on the productivity level (Saggi, 2000). Endogenous growth of an open economy is achieved through “l(fā)earning by doing which exhibits diffusion of technology across goods and countries.International trade, which transmits knowledge internationally, could increase the

36、 absorptive capacity of trading countries by promoting technological advancement. Increased productivity is also achieved through practice and innovation. Finally, international trade leads to robust institutional changes. International trade not only facilitates trading of goods and services, but a

37、lso ideas on market mechanisms. Developing countries are learning to apply market power more efficiently with less intervention from government to increase openness. Especially in bilateral and multilateral trade, participants should fulfill their commitments to international rules and regulations t

38、o bridge the gap between developed countries.3. Chinas Trade3.1 Evolution of Chinas International Trade Policy Some of the unprecedented development in the Chinese trade sectors and trade policy also had various effects on the nations economic growth. Targeting the global market, China has successfu

39、lly converted itself from an inward-oriented country which was protected by various trade policies to an outward-oriented one with an open market. The transition from a closed economy to an open one accompanied with it various experiences. From the perspective of trade policy, China underwent a numb

40、er of evolution periods, such as dependence on the Soviet Union, absolute isolation, and opening doors to the world. WTO accession,which represents a new milestone in Chinas trade evolution, enabled China to participate in the world trade under the global framework by improving the multilateral trad

41、e system. Before 1978, Chinas planned economic strategy and inward-oriented policy resulted in the subordinate status of international trade in the national economy. China had only minimal trade with the outside world, exporting just surplus raw materials and simple manufactured goods to cover payme

42、nts for imported goods,including strategic minerals and other necessities not available in the domestic market. 譯 文：國(guó)際貿(mào)易及其對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響摘要國(guó)際貿(mào)易作為開放性的一個(gè)主要因素，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的奉獻(xiàn)日益顯著。中國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易經(jīng)歷了快速擴(kuò)張和巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，已經(jīng)成為了世界各國(guó)的市場(chǎng)目標(biāo)。本研究探討了國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的作用。中國(guó)在貿(mào)易領(lǐng)域所采取的政策始于中國(guó)的對(duì)外貿(mào)易制度以及概念審查的演變。此外，還對(duì)中國(guó)的國(guó)際貿(mào)易變下進(jìn)行了廣泛地分析。計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)方法和非參數(shù)方法的應(yīng)用基于200

43、2至2007這6年來中國(guó)的31個(gè)省平衡面板數(shù)據(jù)。對(duì)于計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)方法，由生產(chǎn)函數(shù)估計(jì)和貿(mào)易效率確定具體省份的決定因素。而非參數(shù)方法，以每個(gè)省份或地區(qū)的研究指數(shù)計(jì)算作為基準(zhǔn)。這項(xiàng)研究說明，增加全球貿(mào)易的參與可以幫助中國(guó)獲得更多的靜態(tài)效益和動(dòng)態(tài)效應(yīng)，促進(jìn)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)地快速增長(zhǎng)。無論是國(guó)際貿(mào)易數(shù)量還是貿(mào)易結(jié)構(gòu)都對(duì)中國(guó)區(qū)域生產(chǎn)力的高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品的出口產(chǎn)生了積極地作用。相對(duì)于中國(guó)東部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速開展，中部和西部地區(qū)在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和國(guó)際貿(mào)易的參與方面非常落后。相應(yīng)的實(shí)證結(jié)果是進(jìn)行調(diào)整政策的依據(jù)。1說明中國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易經(jīng)歷了快速擴(kuò)張及巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，已經(jīng)使該國(guó)成為了世界各國(guó)的市場(chǎng)目標(biāo)。中國(guó)擁有穩(wěn)定的政治系統(tǒng)，豐富的自然資源和

44、大量的技術(shù)勞工，使其成為了現(xiàn)代世界工廠。國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，特別是生產(chǎn)力增長(zhǎng)的作用的討論已經(jīng)持續(xù)十幾年了。一個(gè)來自綜合文獻(xiàn)的核心研究說明：在國(guó)際上活潑的國(guó)家比只為國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)生產(chǎn)的國(guó)家更有效率。由于自由化和國(guó)際化，一個(gè)國(guó)際的經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)變得跟外部因素更加密切，如開放性。因此，在全球化時(shí)代進(jìn)行一項(xiàng)關(guān)于國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響的研究是具有重要意義的。本研究透過審核生產(chǎn)率的提高對(duì)國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的研究進(jìn)行評(píng)估。它幫助決策制定者確定政策通過有關(guān)國(guó)際貿(mào)易生產(chǎn)率的增長(zhǎng)。自經(jīng)濟(jì)開放政策改革以來，對(duì)外貿(mào)易和中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)經(jīng)歷了戲劇化的增長(zhǎng)。融入全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化在很大程度上促成了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。一些具有比擬優(yōu)勢(shì)

45、的行業(yè)專業(yè)化程度增強(qiáng)，中國(guó)已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)了國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值地快速增長(zhǎng)，而且硬通貨流入巨大、就業(yè)增加。此外，中國(guó)參與國(guó)際貿(mào)易也促進(jìn)了國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)技術(shù)的進(jìn)步和生產(chǎn)力的提高。一方面，大量進(jìn)口的機(jī)械產(chǎn)品在90年代初通過技術(shù)的應(yīng)用對(duì)生產(chǎn)力具有直接影響。另一方面，中國(guó)的科學(xué)技術(shù)水平因“邊干邊學(xué)效應(yīng)得到顯著增強(qiáng)。因此，研究國(guó)際貿(mào)易如何促使中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)可以作為一個(gè)案例來說明后來者如何增強(qiáng)在世界舞臺(tái)上的參與力。文獻(xiàn)在第二局部開始探討國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響的研究。在第三局部，對(duì)理論模型和研究估計(jì)程序分別進(jìn)行了討論。在文獻(xiàn)中應(yīng)用了計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)和非參數(shù)的方法。以上得來的數(shù)據(jù)并在研究中使用的變量在第四局部做出了解釋。對(duì)中國(guó)2002年至

46、2007年這6年的31個(gè)省份或地區(qū)的平衡面板數(shù)據(jù)的特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行了討論，其次是分析模型中的每個(gè)變量。第五局部介紹了實(shí)證的結(jié)果，把從研究中得出的每個(gè)系數(shù)與研究之前的作品進(jìn)行比擬，作出深入的解釋模型。在第六和第七局部，分別繪制研究的主要結(jié)論和政策的影響。 2文獻(xiàn)回憶 根據(jù)經(jīng)驗(yàn)，有充分的證據(jù)說明國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、資本積累、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的升級(jí)、科技的進(jìn)步和制度的進(jìn)步有影響。具體來說，不能在國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)上增加中間產(chǎn)品的資本，進(jìn)口可能導(dǎo)致制造業(yè)生產(chǎn)率的上升。而且通過參加國(guó)際市場(chǎng)，導(dǎo)致出口可以改善在生產(chǎn)力方面有更多的劇烈市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。邊學(xué)邊做可能比迅速出口產(chǎn)業(yè)的技術(shù)知識(shí)溢出效應(yīng)更加有益。此外，國(guó)際貿(mào)易帶來的好處是適當(dāng)?shù)馁Q(mào)易戰(zhàn)略和貿(mào)易方式結(jié)構(gòu)的外部環(huán)境。這是貿(mào)易對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響的綜合研究的實(shí)證分析。在20世紀(jì)60年代之前，對(duì)貿(mào)易影響的研究?jī)H限于少數(shù)特定的國(guó)家。隨著計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的開展，許多基于數(shù)學(xué)模型的復(fù)雜的分析方法介紹了貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的相互影響。到目前為止，這方面的研究大致分為兩類。一方面?zhèn)戎匮芯繉?duì)外貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的因果關(guān)系檢查對(duì)外貿(mào)易是否推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，反之亦然。另一方面主要討論外貿(mào)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的奉獻(xiàn)。OECD組織進(jìn)行了一項(xiàng)關(guān)于貿(mào)易對(duì)人均收入的影星啊的研究。根據(jù)調(diào)查結(jié)果說明：國(guó)際貿(mào)易彈性