MIT的物流與供應鏈管理

1、uUNCERTAINTY URL for powerpoint presentation /innovationEducation Course 1.270 / ESD.273Nobel Prize in Economics 2002 (announced today, 09 Oct 2002)for having integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and deci

2、sion-making under uncertaintyfor having established laboratory experiments as a tool in empirical economic analysis, especially in the study of alternative market mechanisms Daniel Kahneman Vernon L. Smith 1/2 of the prize 1/2 of the prize USA and Israel USA Princeton University Princeton, NJ, USA G

3、eorge Mason University Fairfax, VA, USA b. 1934b. 1927BODY SCANNER BY TC2Invasion of the Body Scanners Digitally speaking Part of the ProcessPERSONALDIGITALPROFILECustomer: How will I look in this dress?Retailer: What should we order for Fall ?Manufacturer: Whats the next demand?Data miningData Mart

4、RetailersAccessoriesJewelry, ShoesShiseido, CoachHarrods, M&SGucci, BallysGuerlain, PoloUSD, DEMEURO, INRYEN, YUANTRAVELHEALTHEDUCATIONARTS & MUSICCelebrityGalleryWorld History ofFashionThe Way We WoreData WarehouseBODY SCANeFASHIONEBCB2BAnne KleinLevis, BebeTalbots, AXChina, India, SiamFABRICSUPPLI

5、ERSDataWarehouseFABRICBROKERINDEPENDENTDESIGNBROKERGlobal DesignWAREHOUSEMEDIA / POPTailors-Contract ShopsAmateursDesign ForumManufacturingTailor BrokerOrderIndividual Tailors On-callPreference SurveySHIPPINGMALLamFinancialRETURNCRMDONATESalvation ArmyCAREGoodwilleBAYBoutiquesJ C PenneyOutlet Stores

6、AmateurModelsSHIPPINGERPRETAILERSMACYS, NORDSTROM, BLOOMINGDALESPERSONALPROFILESOFTWAREPERSONALPROFILEANALYSISPortalCRM $ billion5.47.911.516.81997199819992000200120022003Customer Relationship ManagementSource: AMR Research 1999 October Lack of rule-based resolution: expectation vs resultu

7、Financial Impactu Cost of Correctionu Side Effects Financial Impactu Opportunity lost: unable to ramp upu Economic loss: unable to ramp down Cost of Correctionu Resourcesu Inventory Side Effects (undesirable)u Tackle only symptomsu Negative fall out Insulation of Planning from Execution Individual o

8、ptimisation not SC optimisation Smart-Hub and Dumb-Spoke Configuration Isolation of Environment of OperationWhat to do ? Understand customer need Monitor supply availability Manage supply chain partner performance Decentralize problem solving Monitor corrective actions and feedback Include macro-eco

9、nomic indicators Financial Impactu Opportunity lost: unable to ramp upu Economic loss: unable to ramp down Push-Pull Supply ChainsThe Supply Chain Time LineLow Uncertainty High UncertaintyCustomersSuppliersPUSH STRATEGYPULL STRATEGYFrom Make-to-Stock Model.ConfigurationAssemblySuppliersto Assemble-t

10、o-Order ModelConfigurationAssemblySuppliersImagination is out of focus !Inventory ManagementOrder ProcessingE-BusinessVendor ManagementTaxElectronic CommerceFinancialsMarketingExecutive InformationInventory ProgramsAccounts PayableStock TransfersWarehouseInbound QA1ReceivingRepair OrdersPurchasingAc

11、counts ReceivableOutbound QAShippingOrder ServicesQuotingCreditCustomer MObservation 199883 million accessthe Internet inlanguages otherthan EnglishProjection 200570% of 1 billionusers may notspeak EnglishFACT46% US businessrefuse intl orderbecause they lack means toprocess them.

12、JapaneseSpanishGermanFrenchChineseDutchKoreanSwedishItalianConceptual advances occur about twice a century and lead to wealth of nations DistributedIntelligenceNanotechPLANEXECUTESENSERESPONDDEMANDEXCEPTIONCustomerCustomers DCMANUFACTURERRaw material SUPPLIERSStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore

13、DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonStorePlantDCPlantDCREAL TIME ePCePC data from RFID TagReplenishmentneedsConfirmationLoadsStore OrdersStatusImmediateReplenishmentneedsFutureshipping needsReplenishmentneeds determinedfrom RFID Tag info“Intelligent Signal”PORTALS / ExchangeTransportCustomer Info CenterManufact

14、urerHQreal timeRFID dataPersonal CareConsumer TissueHealth CareInformationAgentInventory Early Warning AgentTLB AgentCross-Docking AgentConsumptionInventoryDataDC to MfrDCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreIndustry best now versus what can be ach

15、ieved:Day 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0=Product =InfoDay 7Received, unloaded & stocked on store shelvesDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0=Non-value-added time=Product=InfoPortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerDCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Da

16、y 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreConsumerBuys SCOTT 2pm Day 0=Product =InfoDCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCPortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =Info

17、RFID Smart Tag atPOS read 2pm Day 0Day 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =Info0101100110111010001112pm Day

18、0RFID Smart tag datatransmitted instantly010110011011101000111DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =Info0101100110111010001110101100110111010001112:10p

19、m Day 0Replenishment needs receivedby scheduling (TLB) systemsDCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =Info0101100110111010001112:35 pm, Day 0System detec

20、ts OOS danger at customer & co-ordinates rapid-response shipment (reallocation of en route load evaluated)010110011011101000111010110011011101000111010110011011101000111DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustome

21、rStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =InfoSmart PlannerSmart Plannerinterrogates interrogates demand filterdemand filterDCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore

22、StoreStoreStore=Product =InfoSmart Planner integrates info:current inventory, shipment, planning DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =InfoSmart Planne

23、r executes changes, broadcasts plan, exceptions, optionsDCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =InfoDCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4

24、Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =Info10pm Day 0Customer DC receives SCOTTDCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCu

25、stomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =Info11pm Day 0Customer DC ships SCOTTDCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product =Info3am Day 1Re

26、ceived, unloaded & stocked on store shelvesDCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0=Product =Info3am Day 1Received, unloaded & stocked on store shelvesDay 1Day 3Day 4Day 5Day 6Day 7Day 8Day 2Day 0=Non-val

27、ue-added time=Product=InfoPortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturer2008: P&G shortens replenishment cycle from 120 days to 1 day 1 2008: P&G shortens replenishment cycle from 120 days to 1 day 2 2008: P&G shortens replenishment cycle from 120 days to 1 day 3 2008: P&G shortens replenishment cycle fr

28、om 120 days to 1 day 4 2008: P&G shortens replenishment cycle from 120 days to 1 day 5 2008: P&G shortens replenishment cycle from 120 days to 1 day 6 2008: P&G shortens replenishment cycle from 120 days to 1 day 7 2008: P&G shortens replenishment cycle from 120 days to 1 day 8 MIT Forum for Supply

29、Chain Innovation AIntelligent Agents (software program that): Perceives its environment Acts autonomously Interacts to share objectives, constraints, etc Anticipates and reacts flexibly to its environment Learns from its experience and environmentIntelligent AgentsInformMonitorCoordinateControlManag

30、eExecuteThe White House said the increased technology spending mentioned by President Clintonduring last weeks State of the Unionaddress could be used, for example, to create intelligent agents that roam the Internet collecting information.AP News Service, 24 January 1999Advances in data routing eme

31、rging from study of ANTS Antbased algorithms developed from the concept of Swarm IntelligenceXAXAXAAAXXNobel Prize in Economics 2002 (announced today, 09 Oct 2002)for having integrated insights from psychological research into economic science, especially concerning human judgment and decision-makin

32、g under uncertaintyfor having established laboratory experiments as a tool in empirical economic analysis, especially in the study of alternative market mechanisms Daniel Kahneman Vernon L. Smith 1/2 of the prize 1/2 of the prize USA and Israel USA Princeton University Princeton, NJ, USA George Mason University Fairfax, VA, USA b. 1934b. 1927Part of the ProcessInventory ManagementOrder ProcessingE-BusinessVendor ManagementTaxElectronic Co