財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表分析與證券投資-姜國(guó)華(ppt48頁(yè))(1)

1、財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表分析與證券投資姜國(guó)華guohua jiang北京大學(xué)光華管理學(xué)院會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)副教授associate professor of accountingguanghua school of managementpeking university1the father of accounting-luca pacioli (1445-1517)nhe wrote a famous mathematics booknin one chapter he invented double-entry accounting systemnhe taught leonardo da vinci perspec

2、tive and proportionality. the knowledge was used to paint “the last supper”2n學(xué)過財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)表分析課程的請(qǐng)舉手3dow jones industrial average 1930-20024djia, nasdaq 1990-2002020004000600080001000012000140005back to square one: djia 1998-20027500800085009000950010000105001100011500120006d or dot.bomb-nasdaq 1998-20020100

3、020003000400050007the three major stock exchanges0500010000150002000025000nyseamexnasdaqus#of listedffirmsmarket cap.billions8the regulator of u.s. stock market9the current sec commissioners 10who issue american accounting standards?11international accounting standards12“big four” international acco

4、unting firmsnernst young (worldwide revenue 2002: $10.1 billions, 4.3 billions in the u.s.)npricewaterhousecoopersndeloitte & touchenkpmg13中華人民共和國(guó)證券監(jiān)督管理委員會(huì) (chinese securities regulatory commission)14number of stocks814531832913235307458519471086115412231285137302004006008001000120014001600199019911

5、992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004number of stocks at shanghai and shenzhen stock exchanges15amount of capital raised020406080100120140160199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004billion rmbamount of capital raised through stock markets16market cap. (a share)05001

6、00015002000250030003500400045005000199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004billion rmbmarket capitalization17market size relative to nyse2004-12-31nysesh+szno. of stocks27471373market cap (billion usd)1960045318shanghai a share index050010001500200025002-jan-9128-oct-9120-aug-921

7、5-jun-9311-apr-948-feb-9530-nov-958-oct-9615-aug-9725-jun-986-may-9917-mar-0018-jan-014-dec-0124-oct-022-sep-0315-jul-04market performance19profitability of chinese listed firms: 1992-200420roe21 stock market capitalization/gdp(%) nation198019901999nation198019901999argentina0.110.15italy0.070.0130.

8、68australia0.380.371.13japan0.331.640.95austria0.030.170.17netherlands3belgium0.090.310.82norway0.540.230.7brazil0.050.080.45southafrica1.231.331.2canada0.461.221.22spain0.170.410.69chile0.340.51.05sweden0.110.371.77egypt0.010.060.29swissland0.441.933.23france0.090.241.17u.k.0.380.812.25ge

9、rmany0.090.20.67u.s.0.460.541.52india0.050.160.4622share types in chinasharestradablenon-tradableindividualforeignlegal personstatea shareb shareh, n, s, share2324share structures of chinese listed companies (december, 2001)non-tradable (0.1 billion shares):state shares 2410.61 46.20domestic legal p

10、erson shares 663.17 12.71other non-tradable shares 331.07 6.4%total non-tradable 3404.85 65.25tradable:a shares 1318.13 25.26% b shares 163.09 3.13% h/n and other shares 331.94 6.36%total tradable: 1813.16 34.75%total: 5218.01 100%25large shareholder expropriation of minority shareholders/tunnelinga

11、n example, jiang, lee and yue, (2005)26序號(hào)合格境外機(jī)構(gòu)投資者（qfii）名稱1瑞士銀行有限公司 （ubs limited）2野村證券株式會(huì)社 （nomura securities co., ltd）3花旗環(huán)球金融有限公司 （citigroup global markets limited）4摩根士丹利國(guó)際有限公司 （morgan stanley & international limited）5高盛公司 （goldman sachs & co.）6香港上海匯豐銀行有限公司 （the hongkong and shanghai banking corpor

12、ation limited）7德意志銀行 （deutsche bank ag）8荷蘭商業(yè)銀行（ing bank n.v.）9摩根大通銀行（jpmorgan chase bank）10瑞士信貸第一波士頓（香港）有限公司（credit suisse first boston (hong kong) limited）11日興資產(chǎn)管理公司（nikko asset management co., ltd）12渣打銀行香港分行（standard chartered bank hong kong）13恒生銀行有限公司（hang seng bank limited）14大和證券smbc株式會(huì)社（daiwa s

13、ecurities smbc co.,ltd）15美林國(guó)際（merrill lynch international）16雷曼兄弟國(guó)際（歐洲）公司（lehman brithers international europe）17比爾蓋茨-美林達(dá)基金（bill & melinda gates foundation）18荷蘭銀行（abn amro bank n.v.）19法國(guó)興業(yè)銀行（societe generale）20巴克萊銀行（barclays bank plc）21法國(guó)巴黎銀行（bnp parisbas）22德國(guó)德雷斯頓銀行（dresdner bank aktiengesellschaft）2

14、3富通銀行（fortis bank）24加拿大鮑爾集團(tuán)（power corporation of canada）25東方匯理銀行（calyon s.a.）26景順資產(chǎn)管理公司（invesco asset management limited）27chinas stock market: a ten-year perspectivefrom zero to an important emerging capital marketfirst developed fast, then became stagnant:fewer new listingsmarket index downraises

15、less capitalless trading activitieslisted companies performed worseoverall less important in the booming economy!28the users of financial statementsnequity investorsncreditorsngovernmentncustomernsuppliersnlabor union29課程結(jié)構(gòu)第一節(jié) 會(huì)計(jì)信息與資本市場(chǎng)介紹第二節(jié) 會(huì)計(jì)報(bào)表回顧-資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表第三節(jié) 會(huì)計(jì)報(bào)表回顧-損益表第四節(jié) 會(huì)計(jì)報(bào)表回顧-現(xiàn)金流量表第五節(jié) 贏余管理與贏余質(zhì)量第六節(jié)

16、 贏利能力分析第七節(jié) 贏利預(yù)測(cè)第八節(jié) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析第九節(jié) 證券價(jià)值評(píng)估30perspectives of this coursena security analysts perspectivenemphasize two issues: earnings management and valuation31earnings management: rao, teoh, wong, review of accounting studies, 199832earnings restatements min wu, hkust333435widespread earnings manipulation

17、(jiang and wang 2005)36accounting-based valuationnwho are my peers? earnings multiples, book-value multiples, sales multiplesneva, economic value added, residual income valuation (riv), edward, bell, ohlson model (ebo)nin one word, share value = f (earnings, book value, dividend, cash flow, etc.)37a

18、ccounting-based valuation-238how important is accounting information?njanuary 22, 2003, after market closed, at&t (stock symbol t) announced:revenue for 4th quarter shrank to $9.3 billion from 10.2 billion in the 4th quarter of previous yearloss from continuing operations widened to $611 million fro

19、m $216 million.39how important is accounting information? (http:)40how important is accounting information?nin the weekend before monday, feb. 3, 2003, mattel (mat) announced fourth quarter results: nrevenue increased from the fourth quarter a year earlier by 6.9% to $1.56 billion. nnet income increased by 35% to $186.1 million.nearnings per share (eps) increased to 42 cents