美股石油與天然氣行業(yè)美國(guó)整裝e增持持有xom

1、FOCUSEquity Research19 August 2019U.S. Integrated Oil & E&PInitiate CVX (OW) and XOM (EW); Quantifying Major Permian MojoWe initiate on CVX at Overweight with price target of $145 and XOM at Equal Weight with price target of $73, primarily due to CVXs superior current FCF profile. We also rename our

2、 coverage industry to U.S. Integrated Oil & E&P.CVX is well positioned to both return significant FCF to shareholders and fund its 3-4% five-year growth CAGR guidance. We like managements approach to its $4-$5bn run rate buyback as being a ratable return of cash through the commodity cycle. While CV

3、X has outperformed XOM by 11% over the last year, the stock still trades at a discount on an after-tax CF basis in 2020, which should invert over the next year as the market becomes comfortable with the sustainability of CVXs cash return program. While we think XOMs counter-cyclical investment appro

4、ach will eventually pay off, it leaves a near-term FCF deficit after dividend at Brent prices less than $70 (ex-asset sales).INDUSTRY UPDATEU.S. Integrated Oil & E&PPOSITIVEUnchangedFor a full list of our ratings, price targets and earnings in this report, please see table on page 2U.S. Integrated O

5、il & E&P Jeanine WaiJeanine.Wa BCI, USEli Bauman, CFAeli.bauman BCI, USMatthew LeeQuantifying Major Mojo Via Standalone, Bottoms-up Permian MingThe Permian is the largest driver of medium-term production growth for XOM and CVX at 40% and 55%, respectively. Energy currently is a one big Show-me Story

6、 and the Permian is coming up on FCF inflection for both names as XOM targets its Permian as FCF positive in 2021 at $60 flat real Brent while CVX targets 2020 at $55 WTI. Determining if XOM and CVXs Permian growth and FCF targets are aggressive or conservative is critical to assessing risk. Thus, w

7、e leveraged our E&P knowledge andmatthew.lee BCI, USEuropean Integrated Oil & RefiningLydia Rainforth, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 6669lydia.rainforth Barclays, UKJoshua Stone+44 (0)20 3134 6694joshua.stone Barclays, UKbuilt standalone, bottoms up well-by-well Permian ms for an XOM/CVX deep-dive.The veil of s

8、ecrecy (i.e. much improving but still limited disclosure) on the majors technical and operational details in the Permian has us intrigued as both XOM and CVX claim to do things differently, which is/will be the key to their success compared to the independent E&Ps. To quantify the Major Mojo, we too

9、k a benchmarking approach forbuilding our standalone Permian ms. Select takeaways include:XOM and CVX can meet their Permian growth targets under reasonably comparable assumptions to Large-cap Permian E&Ps. While we do need to assume the Major Mojo related to XOM/CVX bringing Big Oil scale and exper

10、tise to the Permian translates into actual dollars and cents (or in this case drilling days and well productivity improvements), we are comfortable with the magnitude of the required leap of faith.We forecast XOM/CVX FCF and Permian earnings (CVX-only) that are relatively in line with managements ta

11、rgets, which surprised us given limited disclosure.Despite some scepticism in the market, our standalone Permian MsuggestsXOM can achieve its 1 MMBOE/d by 2024 target at its stated 50% of inventory.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covere

12、d in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that thefirm may have aof interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.This research report has been prepared in whole or i

13、n part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 46.獲取報(bào)告1、2、3、每周群內(nèi)7+報(bào)告；當(dāng)日華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)、4、行研報(bào)告均為公開(kāi)利歸原作者所有，起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)僅分發(fā)做內(nèi)部學(xué)習(xí)。掃一掃關(guān)注 回復(fù)：加入“起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)”群。Barclays | U.S. Int

14、egrated Oil & E&PSummary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Estimates in this ReportChevron Corporation (CVX)Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)N/A OWN/A EW115.8168.30N/A 145.00N/A73.00-N/A 7.01N/A 3.08-N/A 8.43N/A 4.58-Source: Barclays Research. Share prices and target prices are shown in the pri

15、mary listing currency and EPS estimates are shown in the reporting currency. FY1(E): Current fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research. FY2(E): Next fiscal year estimates by Barclays Research.Stock Rating: OW: Overweight; EW: Equal Weight; UW: Underweight; RS: Rating Suspended Industry View: Pos: P

16、ositive; Neu: Neutral; Neg: Negative19 August 20192CompanyRatingPricePrice TargetEPS FY1 (E)EPS FY2 (E)Old New16-Aug-19OldNew%Chg Old New %Chg Old New %ChgU.S. Integrated Oil & E&PPosPosBarclays | U.S. Integrated Oil & E&PChevron Corporation (Overweight/Positive, $145 PT) Investment ThesisChevron Co

17、rporation (CVX, $220bn market cap), along with ExxonMobil, is one of the two remaining truly integrated U.S.-based major oil companies. CVX has upstream operations in the U.S. and internationally, a downstream business levered to West Coast U.S. and Asian product markets, and exposure to Chemicals t

18、hrough its 50/50 CPChem Joint Venture. In the upstream, CVXs exposure to global LNG markets increased significantly to 15% of total production in 2018 with the ramp-up of its Gorgon and Wheatstone facilities. With these two projects now in harvest mode, Chevron is well positioned to both return sign

19、ificant free cash flow to shareholders and fund its 3-4% five- year production CAGR. Despite outperforming XOM by 11% over the last year, CVX continues to trade at a discount to XOM on an after-tax cash flow basis, a relationship we think is likely to invert over the next year as the market becomes

20、more comfortable that managements recently adopted $4-$5bn buyback run-rate is sustainable through commodity cycles. We initiate on CVX at Overweight and XOM at Equal Weight based on CVXs valuation discount to XOM, CVXs superior sustainable free cash flow generation over the next 4 years, our view t

21、hat the market will continue to favour organically generated total return of capital stories over outspend, and our view that management will continue to emphasize the rateable nature of its buyback program through commodity cycles. Our price target equates to 110% of our NAV based on a long term Br

22、ent assumption of $70/Bbl.Overweight CaseSuperior Total Shareholder Return. Based on our forecasts, CVX can hit its 3-4% five-year production CAGR target while still funding $60bn of shareholder returns (through dividend and buybacks), or 30% of current market cap, out of free cash flow over the sam

23、e time period at strip prices. In comparison to XOM, during this time we estimate CVX will generate $19bn surplus cash after dividend payment at the current strip, while XOM outspends cash after dividend payment by $40bn (excluding the impact of asset sales for both).Advantaged Permian Position Prov

24、ides Short-Cycle Optionality. Based on our stand-alone Permian m, Chevron will still have 70% of current estimatedlocations at the end of 2023, suggesting a solid runway for future growth beyond its current target of 900 MBOE/d by 2023, and should help allay M&A fears. Importantly, we forecast that

25、CVXs Permian will turn FCF positive in Q120 and begin compounding FCF assuming strip pricing. In addition, the Gulf of Mexico is an underappreciated source of potential tie-backs and major capital projects. Although we anticipate that Chevron will identify growth opportunities beyond its 2023 Permia

26、n guidance, we think investors will prioritize CVXs current free cash flow over concerns on having less visibility on the more traditional, longer-dated growth related to major capital projects.Downside Risks Tengiz FGP Spend. On the heels of significant cost over-runs at Gorgon and Wheatstone, the

27、cost pressures revealed in Q218 during the engineering phase of the Tengiz Future Growth Project (FGP) introduced some scepticism on CVXs ability to execute on major capital projects, as well as potential free cash flow cannibalization. FGP is now over 65% complete and CVX has not increased the $18-

28、20bn (net) budget, which all but rules out a repeat of the 50% cost over-runs at Gorgon/Wheatstone. Cash Capital Uncertainty. Despite surprising to the upside in its growth outlook, Chevrons five-year forecast that was introduced at the March 2019 Security Analyst Meeting raised concerns of an impli

29、ed increase in cash capex post the Tengiz FGP start-up. On this front we note that, from a free cash flow perspective, the cash capital increase is somewhat offset by a combination of implied decrease in the TCO co-lend and production contribution that translates to increased TCO dividend relative t

30、o earnings after start-up. At $60 Brent, we forecast overall 2023 cash available after capex declines by only $1bn (assuming $2bn of affiliate spend and no co-lend) compared to 2020 despite estimated cash capex increase of $6bn.19 August 20193Barclays | U.S. Integrated Oil & E&PExxonMobil (Equal Wei

31、ght/Positive, $73 PT) Investment ThesisExxonMobil (XOM, $289bn market cap) has significant upstream exposure in the Middle East and in the U.S., which accounted for 25% of global production in 2018. Compared to Chevron, Exxon is more exposed to downstream and chemicals, which accounted for 25% of to

32、tal 2018 capital employed (vs. CVX at 13%). During the most recent downturn, XOM pursued leasing and acquisitions, which laid the foundation for the current investment cycle. We forecast XOM will have $100bn in upstream spend between 2019 and 2023. In downstream, XOM is pursuing eight major capital

33、projects (refining and chemicals) that we estimate will garner $40bn of spend between 2019 and 2023. While we think XOMs counter-cyclical approach will eventually pay off for shareholders, it leaves the company in a near-term FCF deficit after dividend payment in anything less than a $70 Brent price

34、 environment (excluding the impact of asset sales). Our view is that investors are more likely to gravitate toward energy companies that currently have strong free cash flow generation, as opposed to potential free cash flow in the future. As a result of this view along with XOMs slight valuation pr

35、emium to CVX, we initiate on XOM at Equal Weight and on CVX at Overweight. Our price target equates to 100% of our NAV based on a long term Brent assumption of $70/Bbl.Upside RisksGuyana. Guyana is one of the most attractive oil opportunities, offering 30% IRR at current strip prices, compared to Ex

36、xons current upstream ROCE of 1 MMBOE/d by 2024, estimated earnings and operating cash contribution through 2025, etc), our sense is that there is somescepticism in the market. However, we think XOMs targets are achievable. Our stand-alone Permian Msuggests XOM can achieve its 1 MMBOE/d by 2024targe

37、t. Beyond production growth, while we are slightly below the companys 2021 and 2023 cash flow targets, we are not including logistics benefits that XOM incorporates in its estimates. Given the margin of error due to the amount of available information at this time, we think being slightly below is d

38、ecent. However, ourmalso suggests that the depletion in tier-1 locations by the middle of the next decade could fuel the perception that XOM will make an acquisition in thePermian, which would delay free cash flow during the upcoming harvest period and lower ROCE. Additionally, management does not f

39、orecast its Permian will be FCF positive until 2021 (assuming $60 flat real Brent) compared to CVXs forecast of its Permian being FCF positive next year (assuming $55 WTI). We think XOMs Permian will be a Show-me story” until the market gains more confidence in XOMs ability to execute in the play.Do

40、wnside RiskNear Term Investment Cycle outweighs Longer Term Return Potential: Right or wrong, the current energy investor is looking for current return of capital over re- investment in the business. Exxons current spending plan of $63 - $65bn in 2019 and 2020 doesnt leave room for return beyond div

41、idend at current strip, even after accounting for planned asset sales. Exxon will inevitably reach its own “harvest mode”, but for the medium term it falls short of CVXs return of capital potential.19 August 20194Barclays | U.S. Integrated Oil & E&PFIGURE 1North American E&P Comp Table Strip Pricing

42、Barclays CaseWTI / Brent ($/bbl)NYMEX natural gas ($/MMBtu)Strip CaseWTI / Brent ($/bbl)NYMEX natural gas ($/MMBtu)$56 / $64$2.58$61 / $65$2.38$75 / $80$2.42$56 / $64$2.58$52 / $57$2.38$51 / $56$2.42Source: Barclays Research, Company Reports. Stock rating: OW = Overweight; EW= Equal Weight; UW = Und

43、erweight. For full disclosures on each covered company, including details of our company-specific valuation methodology and risks, please refer to19 August 20195Commodity Price Assumptions2019E2020E2021EEnterpriseCurrentNet Debt/Share PricePricePotentialValueEV/DACFNAV /Adjusted Production GrowthEBI

44、TDAX FCF yield CompanyRating16-Aug-19TargetUpside($mm)2019E2020E2021Eprice2019E2020E2021E2019E2019EU.S. Integrated Oil & E&P (Positive)Integrated/MajorsChevron CorporationOW$115.81$14525%240,2980%0.5x2%ExxonMobilEW$68.30$737%334,4920%1.0x-3%Integrated Average9.7x9.7x9.3x0%4%4%2%0.8x0%Large Cap E&PAp

45、ache CorporationUW$20.84$3044%15,85576%2.0x-3%Continental ResourcesOW$29.77$5895%16,226104%1.5x3%ConocoPhillipsOW$51.47$7953%63,808101%0.4x7%Concho ResourcesOW$71.63$165130%18,274139%1.2x1%Devon EnergyEW$22.54$3869%12,06185%1.0x2%Encana CorporationOW$4.22$11161%11,707130%1.7x3%EOG ResourcesOW$75.92$

46、14692%48,332103%0.5x1%Diamondback EnergyOW$97.26$18994%19,762175%1.2x1%Hess CorporationOW$59.82$9355%22,734111%1.6x-3%Marathon Oil CorporationOW$12.45$1953%14,10969%1.2x2%Noble EnergyEW$21.51$3353%14,972114%1.8x-5%Occidental PetroleumEW$44.57$6137%84,69751%4.9x-3%Parsley EnergyOW$15.95$34113%6,64411

47、5%1.5x-2%Pioneer Natural ResourcesOW$124.61$22379%22,689107%0.4x1%Cimarex EnergyEW$41.05$8197%6,10995%1.4x-1%Large Cap E&P Average5.7x5.2x4.8x105%10%9%8%1.5x0%Smid Cap E&P (Industry View: Positive)Callon PetroleumOW$4.51$9100%2,26446%2.7x-19%Centennial ResourcesEW$4.28$9110%2,25099%1.9x-32%Jagged Pe

48、akEW$6.52$1053%2,12581%1.7x-19%SM EnergyUW$9.81$1333%3,98813%3.3x-28%WPX EnergyOW$10.34$1655%6,47668%1.6x-1%Smid Cap E&P Average4.5x4.1x3.8x62%15%16%20%2.2x-20%Total E&P Average5.4x4.9x4.6x11%10%11%1.7x-5%MineralsBrigham Minerals, Inc.OW$20.41$3047%1,03789%0.0x8%Viper Energy Partners LPOW$27.83$4458

49、%4,013128%1.1x$0.06Minerals Average13.4x12.5x11.8x109%51%26%6%0.6x7%76%24%2%25%29%10%12.0x13.6x13.8x14.8x11.3x9.8x17%16%16%14%4%22%15%25%17%7%22%30%23%13%15%5.0x4.4x3.9x4.1x4.6x4.4x4.9x3.8x3.5x4.5x4.1x3.6x3.9x3.8x3.7x5%9%4%11%5%10%9%8%5%12%8%13%-13%-9%6%4%7%5%13%13%14%27%17%14%13%18%6%5%11%6%6%17%6%

50、0%2%2%25%13%14%18%10%15%11%-2%1%5.0x4.9x5.0x4.9x5.0x4.5x5.0x5.4x5.1x5.6x4.8x4.1x4.4x4.2x3.7x3.5x3.5x3.5x6.3x5.9x5.3x6.4x4.6x3.6x8.1x7.7x7.2x4.4x4.4x4.2x5.7x4.4x4.2x11.0x9.1x9.3x4.6x4.0x3.7x6.0x5.9x5.6x4.0x3.6x3.4x4%5%0%4%4%5%8.1x8.8x8.7x11.2x10.7x9.9xBarclays | U.S. Integrated Oil & E&PNorth American E&P Comp Table Barclays Price DeckFIGURE 2North American E&P Comp Table Barclays Price DeckBarclays CaseWTI / Brent ($/bbl)NYMEX natural gas ($/MMBtu)Strip CaseWTI / Brent ($/bbl)NYMEX natural gas ($