空客20182037市場預測全球網(wǎng)絡公民航空英文

1、獲取報告1、2、3、每周群內7+報告；當日華爾街日報、4、行研報告均為公開利歸原作者所有，起點財經(jīng)僅分發(fā)做內部學習。掃一掃關注 回復：加入“起點財經(jīng)”群。Global Networks, Global CitizenGlobal Networks, Global Citizens003IntroductionWelcome to the 2018 edition of Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF).Commercial aviation is already the most global of businesses. Official Airline

2、 Guide data shows that the global network connects all countries in the world: 3,190 cities and3,250 airports. Connectivity between these airports, which has doubled since the early nineteen-eighties, continues to grow, and more of the worlds people from both emerging and mature economies use aviati

3、on as part of their lives.Global network travel encourages more people to see themselves as global citizens. In the same way as access to the internet and social media provoke curiosity andinterest in other people and other places, physically travelling between cities and countries satisfies that cu

4、riosity in allowing people to meet and understand each other.And that understanding is one of the most powerful forces for good in the world.One only needs to look at the “propensity to fly” section of this book and the accompanying GMF 2018 App to see how air travel can grow further. It is particul

5、arly noticeable in theemerging countries.for example the propensityto fly is 0.1 trips per capita today but by 2037 will rise to0.4, or roughly four times greater. A BBC survey* questioned 20,000 people from 18 countries and found that 56% of the people surveyed coming from emerging countries saw th

6、emselves first and foremost as global citizens. Ithis figure was 67%. The BBC suggests this is partly because “the world as a whole is becoming more prosperous and air travel is becoming more affordable to the rising middle classes.” This is one of the common themes in ourGlobal Market Forecast when

7、 we explore the drivers for growth in aviation.We hope that you find the 2018 Global Market Forecast informative and useful. We seek to improve our analyses continually, and your questions, challenges and suggestions help us advance towards this goal. Dont forget you can download our App to your sma

8、rtphone. It complementsthe forecast and enables you to have facts, figures and insights at your fingertips wherever you go. If all you want are the numbers, you can download an excel sheet from.I am not an Athenianor a Greek, but a citizen of the world.Socrates004Global Networks, Global CitizensGlob

9、al Networks, Global Citizens00501Executive summary00703Network & Traffic forecast03304Demand for passenger aircraft04305 06 07 0802Demandfor air travel015Freighter forecast127Demand by region055Services forecast135Methodology & summary data153057 Asia-Pacific071 Europe079 North America089 Mi

10、ddle East097 Latin America & Caribbean107 Commonwealth of Independent States117 AfricaExecutive summary00501Executive summary006Executive summary007Executive summary Long term growth potential for our industry is confirmed: The commercial aviation Industry has been resilient to external shocks,

11、traffic has grown x2.3 since 2000 Traffic forecast to double in the next 15 years Our forecast confirms a 4.4% average traffic growth p.a. over the next 20 years Demand for 37,400 passenger and freight aircraft over the next 20 years: 30% for aircraft replacement, and 70% for growth 36,560 passenger

12、 aircraft and 830 new build freighters The small segment will represent 76% of deliveries and 54% of the value The M, L, XL segments will represent 24% of demand in units, but 46% of the value Asia-Pacific will account for 42% of deliveries, with airlines in North America and Europe together 35% of

13、the passenger aircraft deliveriesSAROUND 37,400 AIRCRAFT WILL BE REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARSNotes: Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) |Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)Source: Airbus GMF 2018 28,550 (76%)M 5,480 (15%)L XLTHE WORLD FLEET WILL MORE THAN DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARSNotes: Passenger

14、aircraft( 100 seats) | Jet freight aircraft (>10 tonnes), Rounded figures to the nearest 10Source: Airbus GMF 201837,400aircraft units The services market is forecast t US$4.6 trillion over the next 20 yearsiver a cumulativeNumber of aircraft47,99050,00040,000S $3.2 tn (54%) M $1.4 tn (25%) L $0.

15、6 tn (10%) XL $0.6 tn (11%) 26,540Grow37,39030,00020,00010,850$5.8 trillionaircraft valueReplace10,00010,600Stay0Beginning 20182037New Deliveries1,760 (5%)1,590 (4%)21,450008Executive summaryExecutive summary009World annual traf c (trillion RPKs)Asian CrisisFinancial Crisis Airbus GMF 201825Gulf Cri

16、sis9/11 SARSOil Crisis4.4% growth p.pa.20x215x210x25TRAFFIC HAS PROVEN TO BE RESILIENT TO EXTERNAL SHOCKS AND DOUBLES EVERY 15 YEARSSource: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2018 RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometre01977198219871992199720022007201220172022202720322037010Executive summaryExecutive summary01136,560830New

17、 Deliveries37,390Passenger FleetFreighter FleetConverted1,560Remarketed& stay in service 8,700Retired9,5401,31010,850PASSENGER AIRCRAFT ABOVE 100 SEATSAND FREIGHTER AIRCRAFT ABOVE 10 TONSSource: Airbus GMF 2018 Rounded figures to the nearest 10AFRICA4506801,1303%ASIA-PACIFIC42%6,4809,16015,640CI

18、S5806401,2203%EUROPE3,6503,4207,07019%LATIN AMERICA1,3301,3802,7107%MIDDLE EAST1,3401,4902,8308%NORTH AMERICA2,9702,9905,96016%FREIGHTERS4503808302%WORLD TOTAL17,25020,14037,390100%201820282018SHARE OF 2018-2037202720372037NEW DELIVERIESDemand for air travel01302Demand for air travel014Demand for ai

19、r travel015Demand for air travelTHE SHORT TERM_ It was another good year for aviation in 2017, with traffic growth measured in Revenue Passenger Kilometresup 7.5% year on year, and capacity, Available Seat Kilometers (ASKs) up 6.5%. As in 2016, this additional capacity was added carefully indicated

20、by the fact that an already record global load factor improved further by almost a percentage point. This additional capacity was distributed globally,with 117 countries growing more than 5% in the year, with 70 of these growing more than 10%. The network also continued to evolve with more movements

21、 and more connectivity, both positive for the worlds passengers and for the businesses at theirpoints of origin and destination. Since 1990, both aircraft movements and the number of destinations have doubled.MORE MOVEMENTS, MORE CONNECTIVITYSource: OAG, AirbusAIRPORT MOVEMENTSAvg. number of movemen

22、ts per airportIMPRESSIVE AIR TRANSPORT RESULT IN 2017 WITH MORE THAN 100 COUNTRIES ADDING 5% OR MORE CAPACITY AND LOAD FACTOR AT RECORD HIGHSource: OAG, ICAO, Airbus22,000 20,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0002017 ADDED CAPACITY (ASKs)Number of countriesx2.510090807060506,000 4,000 2,000 0 40 30

23、201019821987199219972002200720122017AIRPORT CONNECTIVITYAvg. number of destinations per airport14 0<0%0% - 5%LOAD FACTORSWorld passenger load factors (%)85% 80%75%70%65%1210x2864 60% 2 55% 50% 0 19821987199219972002200720122017199219972002200720122017117 countries5% - 10%>10%70474344 016Demand

24、 for air travel017Demand for air travelTHE CYCLE_ The civil aviation market is well known for its “cyclicality”, this usually associated with passenger and freight traffic. But in fact, there are several different cycles which all have slightly different timing one reliant on the other.For example,

25、more traffic, more airline profitability,DRIVERS FOR GROWTH_ GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is still an important variable in explaining the growth of aviation into the future. If the source of future GDP growth is examined over the next 20 years it gives a strong indication as to where future air tra

26、ffic growth will originate. Countries in the Asia-Pacific for example will be responsible for over 50% of this growth, with the US and Europe combined over 30%. Segmenting the data differently shows another key dynamic, in this case the importance of the emerging economies, 54 nations who together w

27、ill be responsible for over 60% of the worlds economic growth overthe next 20 years. The importance of these “emerging economies” is underlined when private consumption forecastsare examined, with this set to grow two and a half times by 2037, this compared to one and half times growth for the 32 “a

28、dvanced economies”. Private consumption, which is a component of GDP, is becoming increasinglymore aircraft orders and then the need tiver them.AIR TRANSPORT LEADING INDICATORS REMAIN GREEN SUMMER OF 2018Today, with manufacturers increasing their rates, deliveries are a focus. Despite some uncertain

29、ties, global economic growth is expected to pick up from +3.1% in 2017 to +3.2% in 2018 and +3.3% in 2019 led by the United States, the Eurozone and emerging marketsEconomy Strong passenger traffic growth in the 1 quarter of 2018, especially for airlines from emerging markets Rising load factors, up

30、 1 percentage point since the beginning of 2018Passenger trafficFreight traffic Freight traffic expected to continue to grow throughout 2018EMERGING REGIONSAND ECONOMIES EXPECTED TO ACCOUNT FOR A LARGE SHARE OF NEXT 20 YEARS WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTHSource: IHS Economics, Airbusmore important when mling

31、 future traffic growth. Low level of tension in finance and stock markets Interest rates still at low levelsFinance Stored aircraft remaining at historical low levels Passenger aircraft productivity continues to improve2017-2037 share of World economic growth (%)Aircraft3.9% 1.9%5.3%3.9% Airline pro

32、fitability expected to continue but down from record levels as a consequence of increased jet fuel and labour costsAirlines7.8%33.2%Traffic light code: Positive: Concerns: NegativeTrend indication: unchanged: improving: moderating15.3% A short-term outlook would not be complete withouta view on wher

33、e we are in the overall cycle. At Airbus, we monitor leading indicators to highlight any trends that may indicate an industry issue; some of these are shown in this years GMF. As can be seen, positive market conditions, which have been in place for several years, remain atthe time of writing in the

34、summer of 2018. However, the movement of oil prices and geo-political stability are both areas which will need to be monitored.16.0%51.2%61.5%* 54 Emerging Economies; 32 Advanced Economies; 120 Developing EconomiesINDICATORSTATUS TREND COMMENT018Demand for air travel019Demand for air travel A driver

35、 for private consumption is the “wealth effect”, with wealth, and an increase in disposable income also important elements of peoples desire and ability to fly. The evolution of the middle classes is an excellent proxy for this relationship. In 2002, about a quarterof the worlds population could be

36、described as “middle class”, today its around 40% and by 2037, is forecast to be well over 50% or some five billion people, all in the pool of regular or potential new flyers in the future.Middle Classexpected to represent57%of total population by2037MIDDLE CLASS TO ALMOST DOUBLE OVER THE NEXT 20 YE

37、ARSSource: Oxford Economics, AirbusPRIVATE CONSUMPTION EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT TO EXPLAIN AIR TRANSPORT GROWTHSource: IHS Economics, AirbusMillionShare Middle Class*ADVANCED ECONOMIESPrivate Consumption (trillion US$)10,000100%45 90%9,000HistoryForecast403530252015105080%8,000x1.57

38、0%7,00060%6,00050%5,00040%4,0003,00030%20%2,000200220072012201720222027203220371,00010%0%0EMERGING ECONOMIESPrivate Consumption (trillion US$)4520022007201220172022202720322037HistoryForecastUpper Class* Middle Class* Lower Class*Share Middle Class40 Airline business ms also evolve over time to35mee

39、t the needs of customers, to take advantage30of opportuand to respond to their competition.x2.425*Households with yearly income between $0 and $20,000 at PPP in constant 2017 prices*Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2017 prices*Households with yearly incom

40、e above $150,000 at PPP in constant 2017 prices There is no doubt that whilst not new, the low-costmhas helped tver additional growth, through20the provision of low fares and new city pairs largely,but not exclusively, to the leisure market. Businesses are also benefiting from the new routings and a

41、dditional151050connectivity the mdelivers. In recent years, the low-cost mitself has evolvedwith ultra-low cost and long-haul low-cost variants growing the number of seats they offer.20022007201220172022202720322037Middle Class* 2.1 billion3 billion5 billionHistoryForecast57%40%31%020Demand for air

42、travelDemand for air travel021AS OTHER BUSINESS M TRADITIONAL LOW COST CARRIERS HAVE BEEN DIVERSIFYING OVERTHE LAST YEARSSource: OAG, Airbus Business ms defined based on 2017 operationsS,STRONG ACCELERATIONOF LONG-HAUL OPERATIONS BY LOW COST CARRIERS OVER THE LAST 5 YEARSSource: OAG, Airbus GMF, Bus

43、iness ms defined based on 2017 operationsSeats offered by Low-Cost Carriers with operations above 2,500nm (Million)16 Seats offered evolution by business m(Billion, All distances considered)6 1451211%104830%362440%Share in 2017120020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015 2016 20171998 199202008

44、20092017OtherEurope - Europe Africa - Europe Asia/Paci c - EuropeAsia/Paci c - North America Latin America - North America Europe - Latin America Asia/Paci c - Middle East Europe - North America Asia/Paci c - Asia/Paci cOtherUltra Low Cost Low Cost Carrierwith long haul ightsLow Cost Carrier Full Se

45、rvice Carrier Long-haul low-cost operations are fairly concentrated today, largely on routes within Asia Pacific and across the Atlantic, with about 70% of the seats offeredby LCCs (on routes over 2,500nm) on these flows. This concentration and the relatively small share of overall seats offered sug

46、gests there is still opportuto grow this m.022Demand for air travel Governments policies around open skies, visa and immigration have long influenced demand for aviation. Understanding the benefits aviation can bring in terms of business and tourism has meant that these policies have relaxed over ti

47、me stimulating demand. Two recent government driven initiatives also look set to help stimulate air travel both in their own countries but also to others., the Ude Desh Ka Aam Nagrik Regional Connectivity scheme or UDAN-RCS is a government initiative designed to make domestic flying more accessible

48、to the Indian population, by making it more affordable and convenient, whilst at the same time stimulating economic growth. In the first round, RCS-1, a total of 128 routes were awarded to 5 players. The Government awarded more than 300 routes to airlines and helicopter operators under RCS-2 on Janu

49、ary 24 , 2018. Whilst being largely regionalin focus greater connectivity will also feed additional passengers to the larger aviation centres creatinga need for larger aircraft types. With a number of these new routes also expected to grow and in time needing for example single-aisle types. Already

50、today, Letters of Award from the Airport Authority of India detail a number of routes, many with a capacity requirement for 180 seats., the much discussed Belt and Road initiative seems to have started to stimulate higher air traffic growth to and from China for some of the countries connected to th

51、e initiative. For example, Kenya and Vietnam both have higher traffic growth to and from China for the period 2013-2017 than the previous five years. Some estimates list the Belt and Road Initiative as one of the largest infrastructure and investment projects in history, covering more than 68 countries, including 65% of the worlds population and 30%of the global GDP as of 2017, with this scale it is likely the initiative will stimulate further aviation growth.Demand for air travel023RECENT GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES STIMULATING AI