經(jīng)濟周期、博弈論、外文文獻及翻譯

1、精選優(yōu)質(zhì)文檔-傾情為你奉上西安建筑科技大學(xué)畢業(yè)設(shè)計(論文)外文資料翻譯院（系）： 管理學(xué)院 專 業(yè)： 公共事業(yè)管理 姓 名： 鄭 凱 學(xué) 號： (用外文寫)外文出處：Journal of Evolutionary Econom- -ics,2004,Vol.14(2) Book review: Game theory and interdependence. Game Theory and its Applications in the Social and Biological Sciences, Andrew M. Colman, Oxford: ButterworthHeinemann,

2、 1995. 375 pp, ISBN 0750623691.附 件： 1.外文資料翻譯譯文；2.外文原文 完成日期： 2013年4 月10日 專心-專注-專業(yè)1.Business cyclethe definition of the economic cycle, economic cycle: also called the business cycle, business cycles, economic cycle, it is to point to in the operation of the economic cyclical economic expansion and co

3、ntraction of alternate cycles of a phenomenon. Is the national total output, total revenue and total employment fluctuations.Under the condition of market economy, entrepreneurs are increasingly concerned about the economy, namely "economic climate change". The stand or fall of an enterpri

4、se production and business operation conditions, is influenced by its internal conditions, and by the external macroeconomic environment and market environment. , an enterprise is unable to determine its external environment, but can through the internal conditions to improve, to actively adapt to t

5、he change of the external environment, make full use of external environment, and within a certain range, change their own environment, in order to enhance their vitality, expand market share. As entrepreneurs, therefore, the economic cycle fluctuations must understand and grasp, and to formulate th

6、e corresponding countermeasure to adapt to the cycle fluctuations, or loss of life in waves.schumpeter and based on "innovation theory", in the economic cycle and relevant books and periodicals, presented his theory of economic cycle. By diffusion, a kind of innovation, he argues, to stimu

7、late large-scale investment, caused the upsurge, once investment opportunities disappear, then into a recession. Because the introduction of innovation is not continuous steady, but the high low, thus produce the economic cycle. Innovation in the history of the differ in thousands ways, its influenc

8、e on the development of the economy are different sizes, so cycle has long have short. His combination of the previous argument, put forward in the process of historical development of capitalism at the same time there are three cycles of claims: (1) 50 60 years long cycle or long wave of economy, a

9、lso known as the "Conrad JiYe cycle" (2) as an average of 9 10 years of capitalist economic cycle, also known as the "jug pull cycle" (3) an average of 40 months of so-called short cycle or short wave, also known as "qin period". He declared that the several cycles to c

10、oexist and intertwined with each other further proves the correctness of his "innovation theory".Schumpeter also in "capitalism, socialism and democracy," a book attacked, labor value theory of Marx's historical materialism and surplus value theory. He put forward a capitalis

11、m will automatic transition to the "socialist" argument. He asserted: once the economy progress makes all of non-life and automated, without human action, innovation itself down to a routine things, weak function, then entrepreneurs for innovation, investment opportunities are disappearing

12、 and become useless, "capitalism will not survive," and will automatically enter the "socialism". Schumpeter called "socialism", however, and as a symbol of socialist "public" and "public", in fact is still the nationalization of the bourgeoisie and

13、state that no change or touches the capitalist ownership.Current have been harsher about schumpeter's theory of the influence of the western academia have greater extension, especially due to the progress of science and technology, schumpeter's "innovation theory" by western schola

14、rs more attention.1、 經(jīng)濟周期理論的定義經(jīng)濟周期(Business cycle)：也稱、商業(yè)循環(huán)、， 它是指經(jīng)濟運行中周期性出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟擴張與經(jīng)濟緊縮交替更迭、循環(huán)往復(fù)的一種現(xiàn)象。是、總收入和總就業(yè)的波動。 在條件下，企業(yè)家們越來越多地關(guān)心經(jīng)濟形勢，也就是 “經(jīng)濟大氣候”的變化。一個企業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營狀況的好壞，既受其內(nèi)部條件的影響，又受其外部和的影響。一個企業(yè)，無力決定它的外部環(huán)境，但可以通過內(nèi)部條件的改善，來積極適應(yīng)外部環(huán)境的變化，充分利用外部環(huán)境，并在一定范圍內(nèi)，改變自己的小環(huán)境，以增強自身活力，擴大市場占有率。因此，作為企業(yè)家對經(jīng)濟周期波動必須了解、把握，并能制訂相應(yīng)的對策

15、來適應(yīng)周期的波動，否則將在波動中喪失生機。熊彼特又以“創(chuàng)新理論”為依據(jù)，在經(jīng)濟周期及有關(guān)書刊中，提出了他的。他認為，一種創(chuàng)新通過擴散，刺激大規(guī)模的投資，引起了高漲，一旦投資機會消失，便轉(zhuǎn)入了衰退。由于創(chuàng)新的引進不是連續(xù)平穩(wěn)的，而是時高時低的，這樣就產(chǎn)生了經(jīng)濟周期。歷史上的創(chuàng)新千差萬別，對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響也大小不同，因而周期有長有短。他綜合了前人的論點，提出在資本主義歷史發(fā)展過程中同時存在著三種周期的主張：歷時5060年的經(jīng)濟長周期或長波，又稱“”;通常所說的平均910年的資本主義經(jīng)濟周期，又稱“朱格拉周期”；平均40個月的所謂短周期或短波，又稱“”。他宣稱，這幾種周期并存而且互相交織的情況進一步

16、證明了他的“創(chuàng)新理論”的正確性。熊彼特還在資本主義、和民主主義一書中攻擊了的歷史唯物主義、勞動價值論和剩余價值論。他提出了資本主義將自動過渡到“社會主義”的論點。他斷言：一旦經(jīng)濟進步使一切都非人身化和自動化了，無需人的作用了，創(chuàng)新本身降為例行事物了，那時企業(yè)家就因創(chuàng)新職能日弱、投資機會日漸消失而變得無用，“資本主義就將活不下去”，并將自動地進入“社會主義”。然而熊彼特所謂的“社會主義”，以及作為社會主義標志的“公有”和“公營”，實際上仍然是資產(chǎn)階級的國有化和國營，根本沒有改變或觸動資本主義所有制。當前熊彼特學(xué)說在西方學(xué)術(shù)界的影響有更大的擴展，特別是由于科學(xué)技術(shù)的進步，熊彼特的“創(chuàng)新理論”受到西

17、方更多學(xué)者的重視。2.Game theoryGame theory is two people with each other in equal match-up strategy transform their confrontation strategy, achieve the goal of victory. Ancient existing game theory thought, sun tzu's the art of ancient China is not just a military work, and is the earliest writing on gam

18、e theory. Game theory original research outcome of chess, bridge, gambling problems, grasp of game situation only on experience, there is no theoretical development.(1)Policy makers: in the game first to make a decision of the party, this party is often based on their own feelings, experience, and s

19、urface state priority one directional action.(2) antagonist: action lags in the games, two games of the people, and policymakers should basic negative decision, and his action is lagging, the default, passive, but in the end." His weaknesses may depend on the decision strategy choice, take up t

20、he space features, so confrontation is the only way of dominant, actually is the periodic end of the leader behavior.(3) bureau middleman (players) : in a competition or game, each have the decision-making power of the participants to be a player. There are only two players of game is called "t

21、wo people game", and more than two players of game called "multiplayer game."(4) strategies (strategies) : a game in the game, each player has a selection of practical complete action plan, the plan is not a stage of action, but to guide the whole a plan of action, a player a viable f

22、rom beginning to end global planning is a plan of action, called a device to this player. If there are limited in a game in the middle game strategy, it is called a "limited game", otherwise known as the "game".(5) and (payoffs) : a game when the game ends as the result of the ga

23、in and loss. Each player in the game at the end of the game of the gain and loss, not only related to the agency in its chosen strategy, and with the global human take a set of strategies. So, a game at the end of the game each player "and" all the players are a set of fixed strategy funct

24、ion, often referred to as payment (payoff) functions.(6) order (orders) : each game party decisions have successively, and a game party will be decision option more than once, and in order; Other elements of the same order, the game is different.(7) game comes to equilibrium, equilibrium is the bala

25、nce point, in economics, the equilibrium meaning related to the amount in a stable value. In supply and demand, market if a commodity at a certain price, want to buy this goods this price can buy per person, per person and want to sell to sell, at this point we can say, the goods has reached the equ

26、ilibrium of supply and demand. So-called Nash equilibrium, it is a stable game result.Nash Equilibrium (Nash Equilibrium) : in a strategy combination, all of the participants faced such a situation, when others don't change strategy, his strategy is the best. That is to say, if he change the str

27、ategy at this time his income would be reduced. On the Nash equilibrium, each rational participants will not have the urge to change tactics alone. Nash equilibrium existence proof is the premise of the concept of "accidentally" game equilibrium. Even so-called "equilibrium" is i

28、n A zero-sum game, the authorities in to take its optimal strategy. A A *, player B * B also take their optimal strategy, if the player still take B * B, while player A take A another strategy, then the player A's income does not exceed A * him to take the original strategy benefits. This game i

29、n the same is true of B.Accidentally in this way, "equilibrium" defined as: a pair of strategies a * (belong to the policy set a) and strategy b * (belong to the policy set b) accidentally called equilibrium, for any strategy and strategy (belong to the policy set a) b (belong to the polic

30、y set b), there are: (a, b *) even the acuities were to (a *, b *) or greater to (a *, b).To non-zero-sum also has the following definition: a strategy for a * (belong to the policy set a) and strategy b * (belong to the policy set b) accidentally called non-zero-sum equilibrium, for any strategy an

31、d strategy (belong to the policy set a) b (belong to the policy set b), there are: the game in a pair (a, b *) accidentally or less for (a *, b *); Game in B to acuities were to (a *, B) (a *, B *).With the above definition, immediately get Nash theorem:Any two people with limited pure strategy game

32、 with at least one equilibrium. This equilibrium is called a Nash equilibrium.Nash theorem proved strictly use the fixed point theory, fixed point theory is the main economic equilibrium research tools. In popular culture, for the existence of equilibrium is equivalent to find the fixed point game.N

33、ash equilibrium concept provides a very important means of analysis, can make the game theory research in the structure of a game looking for more meaningful results.But Nash equilibrium definition is only limited to any players don't want to unilaterally change strategy, while ignoring the poss

34、ibility of other players change strategy, therefore, in many cases, the conclusion is unconvincing, Nash equilibrium, the researchers vividly called "cute" Nash equilibrium.Theoden (r. Selten) in multiple equilibrium of some unreasonable equilibrium according to certain rules, and formed t

35、wo balanced refining concepts: sub game equilibrium and trembling hands perfect equilibrium completely.The classification of the game according to the classification of different benchmarks also have different. It is generally believed that game mainly can be divided into cooperative game and non-co

36、operative game. Cooperative game and non-cooperative game of difference between interact each other have a binding agreement between the parties, if any, is a cooperative game, if not, it is a cooperative game.From time series of the behavior, game theory is further divided into two categories, stat

37、ic game and dynamic game, static game is to point to in the game, participants in the selection or at the same time, though not at the same time choose after the actors didn't know what specific actors to take the first action;Dynamic game is to point to in the game, participates in a person'

38、;s actions have order, and actors can be observed after the first actors chosen action. Popular understanding: "prisoner's dilemma" is the decision making at the same time, belongs to static game; And decisions or actions such as board games has order, belongs to the dynamic gameAccord

39、ing to the understanding of the players on the other player is divided into complete information game and incomplete information game. Complete game is to point to in the process of game, every players on the other player's characteristics, the strategy space and yield function with accurate inf

40、ormation.Incomplete information game is to point to if the players on the other player's characteristics, the strategy space and the revenue function information not accurate enough, or not to all participants in the characteristics, the strategy space and profit function has accurate informatio

41、n, in this case the game is the incomplete information game.Now economists are now talking about game theory generally refers to the non-cooperative game, due to the complexity of cooperative game theory than the non-cooperative game theory, the theory of maturity than a non-cooperative game theory.

42、 Non cooperative game is divided into: complete information static game and dynamic game with complete information and incomplete information static game of incomplete information dynamic game. And corresponding to the four kinds of game equilibrium concept is: Nash equilibrium (Nash equilibrium), s

43、ub-game refining Nash equilibrium (subgame perfect Nash equilibrium) and Bayesian Nash equilibrium (Bayesian Nash equilibrium), refined Bayesian Nash equilibrium (perfect Bayesian Nash equilibrium).Game theory still has a lot of classification, such as: the game for the number of times or continuous

44、 length can be divided into finite game and an infinite game; To form can also be divided into general type (strategic) or open type; Based on the logic of game and different can be divided into traditional game and evolutionary game theory.2、博弈論博弈論是二人在平等的對局中各自利用對方的策略變換自己的對抗策略，達到取勝的目的。博弈論思想古已有之，中國古代

45、的孫子兵法就不僅是一部軍事著作，而且算是最早的一部博弈論著作。博弈論最初主要研究象棋、橋牌、賭博中的勝負問題，人們對博弈局勢的把握只停留在經(jīng)驗上，沒有向理論化發(fā)展。（1)決策人：在博弈中率先作出決策的一方，這一方往往依據(jù)自身的感受、經(jīng)驗和表面狀態(tài)優(yōu)先采取一種有方向性的行動。(2)對抗者：在博弈二人對局中行動滯后的那個人，與決策人要作出基本反面的決定，并且他的動作是滯后的、默認的、被動的，但最終占優(yōu)。他的策略可能依賴于決策人劣勢的策略選擇，占去空間特性，因此對抗是唯一占優(yōu)的方式，實為領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的階段性終結(jié)行為。(3)局中人（players）：在一場競賽或博弈中，每一個有決策權(quán)的參與者成為一個局中人。只有兩個局中人的博弈現(xiàn)象稱為“兩人博弈”，而多于兩個局中人的博弈稱為 “多人博弈”。(4）策略（strategies）：一局博弈中，每個局中人都有選擇實際可行的完整的行動方案，即方案不是某階段的行動方案，而是指導(dǎo)整個行動的一個方案，一個局中人的一個可行的自始至終全局籌劃的一個行動方案，稱為這個局中人的一個策略。如果在一個博弈中局中人都總共有有限個策略，則稱為“有限博弈”，否則稱為“無限博弈”。(5）得失（pa