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1、Association for Sense About ScienceNatural History MuseumM.S. Swaminathan, FRSUNESCO Chair in EcotechnologyPresident, Pugwash Conferences on Science and World AffairsM.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, ChennaiWhere the Green Revolution has left us and where we need to go now?London, 22 May 2003Pub

2、lic Good Plant Breeding : What are the international priorities?江西不孕不育醫(yī)院 srsgyyFamines and Public Good Plant BreedingThe Irish Potato Famine of 1840s triggered the search for new genes in tuber-bearing Solanum species.“This Conference, meeting in the midst of the greatest war ever waged, and in full

3、 confidence of victory, has considered world problems of food and agriculture and declares its belief that the goal of freedom from want of food, suitable and adequate for the health and strength of all peoples, can be achieved.Resolution of Conference convened by President Franklin D. RooseveltHot

4、SpringsVirginia (18 May to 3 June 1943)Major Famines of the 20th CenturyYearEpicentreExcess Mortality1943Bengal2.7 to 3.00 million deaths1958-62China16.5 to 29.5 million1972-75Ethiopia2 lakhs1972-74Bangladesh1.5 million1973Sahel1 lakhSource : Amartya Sen, Poverty and Famines, 1981HaitiCant- be-saved

5、EgyptCant-be-savedThe GambiaWalking WoundedTunisiaShould Receive FoodLibya Walking Wounded IndiaCant-be-savedPakistanShould Receive FoodFamine : Triage classification of countries- Paul and William Paddock, 1967Variation in Australian Average Wheat Yield (Ten-Year Mean) from 1860 to 2000Fighting Soi

6、l HungerWater Conservation and Management : Key to Crop SecurityThe rice terraces of BaliGreen Revolution in EuropeBegan with Liebigs discovery of mineral fertilizer in the 1850sSoil health, water management and plant protection proved to be key factors in determining crop productivityMendelian gene

7、tics helped to breed strains capable of responding well to soil fertility and irrigation water managementDaruma(Japanese semi-dwarf)XFultz(U.S. winter wheat, high yield)Fultz-Daruma(semi-dwarf, high yield)Locals(adapted to U.S. Northwest)XXTurkey Red(U.S. winter, high yield)Norin 10(semi-dwarf, wint

8、er, high yield)Gaines(semi-dwarf, winter, U.S. adpted)XLocal StrainsNew Wheats(semi-dwarf, high yield, adaptable, rust-resistant, fast-maturing,spring)Origin of the semi-dwarf wheatsPower of Mendelian BreedingPublic good Plant Breeding and assured and remunerative marketing triggered rapid progressW

9、heat Production India now occupies theSecond Position in the World1965: 10 Million t2000 : 80 Million tSome time between 1970 and 1985 the world will undergo vast famines hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death. That is, they will starve to death unless plague, thermonuclear war,

10、 or some other agent kills them first.The United States should announce that it will no longer ship food to countries such as India where dispassionate analysis indicates that the unbalance between food and population is hopeless.Ehrlich 1968Synergy between Technology and Public PolicyScience and Ag

11、ricultural Progress1968 The Beginning of Green RevolutionPedigree SelectionInter-varietal HybridizationWinter x Spring Wheat crossesMutation BreedingAneuploid and Genomic BreedingRestructuring Plant Architecture : Semi-dwarf wheatShuttle Breeding and Photo-insensitivityHybrid WheatApomixisFunctional

12、 Genomics and Molecular BreedingHundred Years of Wheat BreedingLand and Forest Saving AgricultureNon-lodging , greater absorption of sun light, better root system, higher harvest index and photo-insensitivityNew Plant Type in Rice8000BC1900Landraces1930Purelineselection1950Crossbreds2021Biotech-nolo

13、gy1995Indica/Indicahybrids2005Indica/Tropicaljaponicahybrids196519902000NewplanttypeSemidwarfs(IR8) (IR72otential yield (t/ha)From Green to Gene Revolution in RicePublic SectorPublic-Private SectorGenetic Resources(building blocks)Biotechnologies(tools)Commercial Products(market value)$

14、Sui generis Systems(Rights)Benefit-sharing(collective rights)(e.g. Farmers Rights and the Global Plan of Action)Intellectual Property Rights(individual rights) % (e.g. Plant Breeders Rights)FAO International Treaty Art, 9(also Art. 12 &13)CBD Art, 8 (j)WIPOWTO/TRIPS (Art. 27.3.b)UPOVAccess to Geneti

15、c Resources andBiotechnologies for Food and Agriculture“Man has lost the capacity to foresee and to forestall. He will end by destroying the earth- Albert SchweitzerEnvironment and Development : Early WarningRachel Carson 1962 : Silent Spring“Intensive cultivation of land without conservation of soi

16、l fertility and soil structure would lead ultimately to the springing up of deserts. Irrigation without arrangements for drainage would result in soils getting alkaline or saline. Indiscriminate use of pesticides, fungicides and herbicides could cause adverse changes in biological balance as well as

17、 lead to an increase in the incidence of cancer and other diseases, through the toxic residues present in the grains or other edible parts. Unscientific tapping of underground water would lead to the rapid exhaustion of this wonderful capital resource left to us through ages of natural farming. The

18、rapid replacement of numerous locally adapted varieties with one or two high yielding strains in large contiguous areas would result in the spread of serious diseases capable of wiping out entire crops, as happened prior to the Irish potato famine of 1845 and the Bengal rice famine of 1942. Therefor

19、e, the initiations of exploitative agriculture without a proper understanding of the various consequences of every one of the changes introduced into traditional agriculture and without first building up a proper scientific and training base to sustain it, may only lead us into an era of agricultura

20、l disaster in the long run, rather than to an era of agricultural prosperity.Scientific rationale for an Ever-green revolution M S SwaminathanIndian Science Congress, Varanasi, January 1968What nations with small farms and resource poor farmers need is the enhancement of productivity in perpetuity,

21、without associated ecological or social harm. The green revolution should become an ever-green revolution rooted in the principles of ecology, economics and social and gender equity. - M S Swaminathan, 1990Concept of Ever-green RevolutionGreenRevolutionEver-greenRevolutionCommodity CenteredExperimen

22、t StationResearchIntegrated Natural Resources Management CenteredParticipatory ResearchParadigm Shift : Adding the Dimension ofEnvironmental sustainabilityGrowth Rates in the Production of Food GrainFatigue of the Green RevolutionWhere do we need to go now?In population rich and land hungry countrie

23、s, there is no option except to produce more from less per capita arable land and irrigation water.The smaller the farm, the greater is the need for marketable surplus, to get cash incomeThere is need for anticipatory research to face future challenges like global warming and sea level riseObviously

24、 an integrated approach to Mendelian and molecular breeding will be essential to make progressMangroves : Useful Sources of Genes for Salinity ToleranceAnticipatory ResearchcDNA libraries were constructed from the Mangrove species Avicennia marinaA number of genes with potential application to abiot

25、ic stress has been isolated and charactreisedFour isolated genes were used for developing transgenics in rice, Brassica and VignaTransgenic plants with salinity tolerance genes Avicennia marinaFacing the Challenge of Sea level RiseIntegrated Mendelian and Molecular BreedingTransgenic (T1) rice plant

26、s with genes from mangroves in the greenhouse (salt tolerance upto 150 mM)“Organic agriculture includes all agricultural systems that promote the environmentally, socially and economically sound production of food and fibres. These systems take local soil fertility as a key to successful production.

27、 International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movement (IFOAM) - 2002Organic Agriculture and Evergreen RevolutionOrganicFarming1) Soil Health2) Water Quality3) Plant Health5) Animal HealthVermicultureBio-fertilisersStem nodulating green manure cropsBioremediationGenetic ResistanceBiopesticidesVac

28、cinesHigh quality feeds and fodder6) EnvironmentBiomonitoring through Bio-indicatorsHigher Carbon Sequestration4) Post-harvest TechnologyNew strains with improved keeping, processing and transport qualitiesIFOAM : Genetic Engineering is excluded in organic agricultureBiotechnology and Organic Agricu

29、lture“We are committed to study, share and facilitate the responsible use of biotechnology in addressing development needsCivil Society Organisations Declaration“Genetically modified organisms represent a threat to family farmers, other food producers, the integrity of genetic resources and human an

30、d environmental health. They will affect particularly the rural poor, who cannot afford this costly alternativeWorld Food Summit Plus 5,Rome (June 10-13, 2002)Declaration on Biotechnology The Way AheadOur ability to achieve a paradigm shift from green to an ever-green revolution and our ability to f

31、ace the challenges of global warming and sea level rise will depend upon our ability to harmonise organic farming and the new genetics.Genetic Modification in Crop Plants:IFOAM Concerns and Way AheadS.NoConcernWay Ahead1.Negative and irreversible environmental impactsNeeds careful monitoring; no doc

32、umentary proof so far2.Release of organisms which have never before existed in nature and which cannot be recalledApplies to micro-organisms. First patent for a LMO Pseudomonas was obtained by Anand Chakroborty in 1981. No problem reported so far, but prospects for bio-terrorism need surveillance3.P

33、ollution of the gene-pool of cultivated crops, micro-organisms and animalsDeclaring centres of origin and diversity as GMO free sanctuariesContdS.NoConcernWay Ahead4.Denial of free choice, both for farmers and consumersGenetic literacy; labelling of GM foods5.Violation of farmers fundamental propert

34、y rights and endangerment of their independenceSafeguarding Farmers Rights through legislation and getting a Universal Declaration on “The Plant Genome and Farmers Rights” adopted in FAO6.Practices which are incompatible with the principles of sustainable agricultureAvoiding genetic homogeneity and

35、thereby genetic vulnerability to biotic and abiotic stresses through an integrated system of pre-breeding and participatory breeding with farm familiesContdS.NoConcernWay Ahead7.Unacceptable threats to human healthStrengthening screening for allergenic properties; developing and adopting “clean gene

36、” transformation techniques.8.Ban GMOs in all agricultureFifty years of research since the discovery of the Double Helix structure of DNA has revealed enormous potential for the safe and responsible use of genetic engineering in medicine, agri-culture, industry and environment protection (bio-monito

37、ring and bio-remediation). Rather than repeat Lysenkoism in scientific enquiry, it is important that mandatory codes of conduct and regulatory mechanisms which inspire public confidence are put in place.NGO DeclarationFAO Rome World Food Summit Plus Five (2002)S.NoConcernWay Ahead1.GMOs represent a threat to family farmers and other food producersNeed for greater public under-standing and public-professional consensus on threats and opportunities2.GMOs affect the integrity of genetic resources and environmental h

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