WWF2050氣候變化解決方案報告課件

1、Climate Solutions - WWFs Vision for 2050 氣候變化解決方案：WWF 2050愿景Dongmei Chen WWF China第1頁，共34頁。Main ContentsKey Conclusions of WWF 2050 VisionThe Implications to China Situation in ChinaSolutions of ChinaVision to 2050 China第2頁，共34頁。WWF報告總結(jié)Executive Summary在滿足全球?qū)δ茉葱枨笤鲩L的條件下，只使用那些保護全球氣候的清潔及可持續(xù)能源資源和技術是否可行？

2、 “Is it technically possible to meet the growing global demand for energy, using only clean and sustainable energy sources and technologies that will protect the global climate?” 換句話說，從現(xiàn)在開始轉(zhuǎn)向可持續(xù)能源資源和技術，是否可以滿足全球到2050年對能源加倍的需求，而同時避免全球平均溫度升高超過 2 攝氏度所帶來的威脅呢？ In other words, can a concerted shift to the

3、sustainable energy resources and technologies that are available today meet the more than doubling of global energy demand projected by 2050, while avoiding dangerous climatic change of more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels?第3頁，共34頁。已有的技術和能源資源足以應對挑戰(zhàn)，而且也有足夠的時間發(fā)展和應用這些技術和資源，但前提是必須在5年內(nèi)

4、做出必要的決策 the technologies and sustainable energy resources known or available today are sufficient to meet this challenge, and there is still sufficient time to build up and deploy them, but only if the necessary decisions are made in the next five years. 全球還需緊迫認識到，推動這種轉(zhuǎn)變的經(jīng)濟政策及政府行動尚未到位。 Yet it is cle

5、ar that the economic policies and governmental interventions needed to propel this transition are not now in place, or even in prospect in most cases. This is a matter to which the world needs to give urgent attention.WWF報告總結(jié)Executive Summary第4頁，共34頁。6個解決方案 Six Solutions打破能源服務及初級能源生產(chǎn)的鏈接 Breaking the

6、 Link between Energy Services and Primary Energy Production 停止森林的進一步減少 Stopping Forest Loss 開發(fā)與推廣低排放技術 Concurrent growth of Low-Emissions Technologies 開發(fā)靈活的燃料、能源儲存、新能源基礎設施 Developing Flexible Fuels, Energy Storage and New Infrastructure 用低碳天然氣替代高碳煤 Displacing High-Carbon Coal with Low-Carbon Gas 碳捕捉

7、及儲存 Carbon Capture and Storage第5頁，共34頁。排序及受益分析 Ranking and Perversities工業(yè)節(jié)能節(jié)能建筑節(jié)能汽車益 害減少汽車使用 BenefitsDisbenefits航空及航海節(jié)能水力再發(fā)電可持續(xù)生物質(zhì)能風力發(fā)電光伏發(fā)電太陽能熱發(fā)電太陽能熱利用小水電 益 害地熱 BenefitsDisbenefits潮汐發(fā)電及海洋技術可再生能源制氫大型水電 （已有水電及可持續(xù)水電）碳捕捉及儲存天然氣替代煤不可持續(xù)的生物質(zhì)燃料不可持續(xù)水電 益 害核能 BenefitsDisbenefits第6頁，共34頁。YearY1990Y1995Y2000Y2001

8、Y2002Y2003Y2004Y2005Urban (%)26.4129.0436.2237.6639.0940.5341.7642.99Rural (%)73.5970.9663.7862.3460.9159.4758.2457.01中國的快速城市化Rapid Urbanization of China Every year about 18 million people migrate from rural areas to cities during the past four years 每年約有1800萬人口涌入城市The Proportion of Urban population

9、 is estimated to reach 75% by 2050 城市人口所占比例到2050年估計約為75% The new migrations of 300 million in the future will impose heavy pressure to infrastructure investment and energy consumption caused by change of lifestyle (USA:250M, EU:350 M) 3億多人口從農(nóng)村遷入城市，將對城市的基礎設計投資和能源消耗造成巨大壓力SOURCE: National Bureau of Sta

10、tistics of China,2006第7頁，共34頁。SOURCE:BP energy statistic review 2006中國來自化石燃料的挑戰(zhàn)Challenges From Fossil Fuel第8頁，共34頁。Dollars per million Btu20042005200310k TonsSOURCE: EIA 2006 , The energy development report of China 2006中國來自化石燃料的挑戰(zhàn)Challenges From Fossil Fuel第9頁，共34頁。(Resource: BP World Energy Review

11、 2007)中國來自化石燃料的挑戰(zhàn)Challenges From Fossil Fuel第10頁，共34頁。 Energy Consumption SO2 Emission Particulates Emisson Acid Rain中國來自化石燃料的挑戰(zhàn)Challenges From Fossil Fuel第11頁，共34頁。中國來自化石燃料的挑戰(zhàn)Challenges From Fossil Fuel 第12頁，共34頁。中國的能源與氣候變化解決方案Solutions to China第13頁，共34頁。G tceBusiness as UsualLow-Carbon PathBuildin

12、gs EfficiencyIndustrial EfficiencyVehicle EfficiencyRenewable & GasSource: LBNL中國的能源與氣候變化解決方案Solutions to China第14頁，共34頁。Rapid growth of industrial energy consumption 工業(yè)用能增長迅速Source: China Energy Statistics Yearbook 2005工業(yè)節(jié)能的發(fā)展之路Road Map of Industry Energy Efficiency第15頁，共34頁。Growth of Key Product O

13、utputs Was Unimaginable 主要高耗能產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量增長超出想象Source: 2005 China Statistics Yearbook, 2005 China Statistics ReportNote: Comparable Price of GDP value.鋼產(chǎn)量：19902000年增長6000萬噸20012006年增長了2.7億噸水泥產(chǎn)量：19801990年增加了1.3億噸20012006年增長了5.4億噸工業(yè)節(jié)能的發(fā)展之路Road Map of Industry Energy Efficiency第16頁，共34頁。Industry contribute 80%

14、 of 2010 energy efficiency target 工業(yè)對節(jié)能目標的貢獻率在80左右Energy intensity of industrial sector has to reduce by 24-26% based on the overall 20% energy efficiency target 為完成國家節(jié)能20目標，工業(yè)需要降低能耗2426，甚至更高The energy intensity of industry has to decline 工業(yè)增加值能耗必須降低： 24%, if the annual GDP growth is 7.5%, 如果GDP增長7.

15、526%, if the annual GDP growth is 9%, 如果GDP增長9或更高30-40% energy saving from technologies,structure regulation has more potential 技術節(jié)能只能完成節(jié)能目標的3040,結(jié)構節(jié)能更具潛力 Adjusting the industry structure will rely on the demand, where from end-users at home and abroad 工業(yè)結(jié)構的調(diào)整將依賴于國內(nèi)消費者的終端需求調(diào)整工業(yè)節(jié)能的發(fā)展之路Road Map of Ind

16、ustry Energy Efficiency第17頁，共34頁。工業(yè)節(jié)能的發(fā)展之路Road Map of Industry Energy Efficiency第18頁，共34頁。工業(yè)節(jié)能的發(fā)展之路Road Map of Industry Energy Efficiency第19頁，共34頁。交通節(jié)能的發(fā)展之路Road Map of Transportation Energy Efficiency第20頁，共34頁。Fuel economy level of motor vehicles was 25% lower than that of Europe, 20% lower than tha

17、t of Japan, 10% lower than the overall level in the United States.機動車燃油經(jīng)濟性比歐洲低25%， 比日本低20%， 比美國整體水平低10% Oil consumption per 100t-km of freight vehicle was 7.6L, more than double the amount for foreign advanced levels.載貨車輛每100噸公里的油耗是7.6升，是國外先進水平的兩倍多 Practical Oil consumption of motor vehicles was 30%

18、 higher than that of demarcated level.機動車的實際油耗比標準高30% Oil consumption level of vessels for inland river transportation was 10-20% higher than that of foreign advanced level vessels.內(nèi)陸河運輸油耗比國外先進水平高10-20%交通節(jié)能的發(fā)展之路Road Map of Transportation Energy Efficiency第21頁，共34頁。交通節(jié)能的發(fā)展之路Road Map of Transportation

19、 Energy Efficiency第22頁，共34頁。199620032020From 1994 to 2004, the building area increase from 32.6 billion m2 to 42.0 billion m2,with an annually increasing rate of 29%. 從1994年到2004年，建筑面積從326億平米上升至420億平米，年增長率為29% Since 2000, annual increased area has attained to 1.2-1.6 billion m2. 2000年之后每年以12到16億平米的速

20、度增加。By end of 2020, total building area will reach 68 billion m2, of which 26 billion in urban area 到2020年底，中國房屋建筑面積將達680億平方米，其中城市為260億平方米。 1990Urban Living Area Growing(m2 per capita）中國城鎮(zhèn)人均住房面積呈增長趨勢建筑節(jié)能的發(fā)展之路Road Map of Building Energy Efficiency第23頁，共34頁。建筑能耗已成為能源消費的一大重要部門建筑節(jié)能的發(fā)展之路Road Map of Build

21、ing Energy EfficiencyThe living area accounts for above 60% of total area and the energy use for heating, conditioning and lighting account for about 75% of building energy use. 住宅面積約占總面積的60%，而在供熱、空調(diào)和照明方面的能耗約占總體建筑能耗的75%The energy use per unit area heating is about 2-3 higher times as that of develop

22、ed countries with same climate condition.單位面積熱能消耗是同氣候條件發(fā)達國家的2-3倍第24頁，共34頁。The building area Growth in 2030 建筑面積持續(xù)增長 The building area of China is expected to attain to 90 billion m2 in 2020.If multiplied by current energy consumption rate, this will consume about800 Mtce energy.到2020年建筑面積可達900億平米，若按

23、現(xiàn)在的能耗水平計算，會增加8億噸標煤的能源消耗 According to the prediction of WB, up to 2015, half of private building inChina will be constructed after 2000.根據(jù)世行的估計，到2015年，中國有一半的建筑都是在2000年以后建成的 The building sector will become a high driving force for energy increaseand a big consumer of high-quality energy.建筑業(yè)將是能源增長的重要驅(qū)動

24、力，也是高品質(zhì)能源的主要消費群建筑節(jié)能的發(fā)展之路Road Map of Building Energy Efficiency第25頁，共34頁。 2000-2020: The Chinese government formulate the society and economy development goal for “eleventh-five-year-plan” period, i.e., the annual increase rate of GDP will maintain 8% from 2005 to 2020; the per capita GDP will double

25、 from 2000 to 2010; the per GDP energy consumption will decrease by 20% from 2005 to 2010. 2020-2050: The annual GDP increase rate will be around 5%. The energy saving will be strengthened with an annual energy-saving rate of 3%. The clean energy technologies will be utilized broadly, the energy sec

26、urity will be ensured and the sustainable development will be achieved中國2050展望Vision to 2050 China第26頁，共34頁。In policy scenario by 2050: Primary energy demand:1700Mtce would be saved, accounting for 27%; Share of coal would decrease to 30% from 50%; Share of renewable energy would increase to 25% fro

27、m 11%; Energy structure will be diversified and balanced中國2050展望Vision to 2050 China第27頁，共34頁。In policy scenario:Renewable energy generation will increase to 35%Nuclear and hydro accounts for 30% Alternative fuel to substitute fossil fuel amounts to 1000MtceGeneration efficiency will increase to 45% from 30%中國2050展望Vision to 2050 China第28頁，共34頁。End-use energy consumption in industries,transport and building will decrease by 3