全球供應鏈管理中文

1、04 全球運籌管理Global Supply Chain Logistics Management柳學信 副教授 2007年1主要內容全球性供應鏈趨勢全球供應鏈風險與優(yōu)勢全球供應鏈管理全球運籌管理2The Global Business ClimateIncreasing market concentration市場集中Increasing dispersion of production生產分散Increasing product line diversity生產線多樣化3Increasing Market ConcentrationThrough increased market conc

2、entration, so-called “power retailers” have come to rule the marketplaces in first-world economies. 隨著市場集中度的增加，所謂的“零售大亨”已統(tǒng)治了第一世界國家市場。In the United States, for example, discount retailers such as Wal-Mart, Kmart, and Target have become dominant chains in general merchandising. 在美國，例如，折扣零售商如沃爾瑪，西爾斯和Ta

3、rget已經占據(jù)整條商品鏈中的統(tǒng)治地位。 “Category killer” retail chains such as Toys R Us, Home Depot, and Circuit City now control substantial shares of the retail market for their specialty goods. “類別殺手”零售連鎖 例如 Toys R Us, Home Depot, and Circuit City現(xiàn)在自己的特色商品已占有龐大的份額。4Representing a substantial portion of national r

4、etail sales, these power retailers have tipped the balance of channel power. 這些大零售商全國零售銷售占相當大的比例，已經打破渠道平衡。With the base of retailers shrinking to a few giant firms, manufacturers and wholesalers now respond eagerly to the demands of these power retailers. 隨著零售商已經縮小到幾個巨型公司，所以制造商及批發(fā)商現(xiàn)在熱切回應著這些零售大亨們的要求。

5、5Increasing Market ConcentrationOne profit-enhancing strategy commonly used by power retailers is the refusal to hold large inventories. 大零售商常用的一個利潤提升策略就是拒絕持有大量庫存。The power retailers have learned the lessons of just-in-time inventory management, and firms such as Wal-Mart focus on zero inventory as

6、a desirable goal.大零售商學會了運用JIT庫存管理，像Wal-Mart這樣的公司更是將零庫存作為其理想目標。The retailers have strategically applied inventory technologies such as point-of-sale scanning and electronic automatic reordering to make such split-second logistics performance possible.零售商戰(zhàn)略上運用存貨技術，例如銷售點掃描和電子自動訂貨系統(tǒng)，使得瞬時物流成為可能。When such

7、 retailers are paired with responsive and logistically sophisticated manufacturers, retail inventory turnover rates skyrocket. This allows the retailer to sell the goods before it even pays its suppliers, lending real-world proof to the concept of zero-inventory retailing.當這些零售商和具有響應性以及復雜物流系統(tǒng)的制造商結合在

8、一起時，零售存貨周轉率扶搖直上。這使得零售商可以先出售商品，然后再付款給供應商，在現(xiàn)實世界中實現(xiàn)了零存貨零售的理念。6Increasing Market ConcentrationAs this goal is reached, power retailers seek additional higher levels of logistics capabilities from their suppliers and increasingly choose to deal only with suppliers who can guarantee their logistics perfor

9、mance.在這些目標實現(xiàn)以后，大零售商就開始尋找另外的具有高物流水平的供應商，并更多的只選擇那些可以保證其物流績效水平的供應商。Logistics performance guarantees are common today. Suppliers who ship with errors in quantity, SKU, packaging requirements, or delivery requirements are today often heavily penalized by their retailer customers through invoice charge-b

10、acks. 物流績效擔保在今天很平常。那些在出貨數(shù)量，庫存單位，包裝要求，或交貨要求上出錯的供應商現(xiàn)如今常常被零售客戶用退回貨物的方式進行重罰。7When channel power is exercised in this way, leading-edge logistics performance becomes a norm, not an aspirational goal. As such, firms that cannot provide logistics excellence are left behind their competition. The power of t

11、he logistics-linked vertical marketing system is undeniable. 當渠道巨頭采用這種方式后，領先的物流績效成為一種規(guī)范，而不是期望的目標。因此，如果公司不能提供卓越的物流，那么他們就會在競爭中落后。由物流鏈接的垂直營銷系統(tǒng)重要性是不可否認的。Firms have pursued two distinctly different strategies in locating production facilities.公司追求兩種完全不同的生產設施定位戰(zhàn)略。Some have chosen to go where the cost of e

12、conomic inputs (land, labor, and capital) are lowest.一些將選址定在經濟投入（土地、人力、資金）最少的地方Others, facing unwieldy transportation problems or local trade barriers, have chosen to locate their manufacturing facilities near or in the markets where their goods are sold.另一些，面對難以處理的運輸問題和地方貿易障礙，選擇將他們的生產設施建在其產品得以銷售的市場

13、中或者附近。8Increased Dispersion of ProductionIn a global marketplace, both of these production location approaches can greatly complicate supply chain management and bring to the forefront excellence in international logistics performance.在全球市場，這兩種生產設施的選址會使供應鏈管理大大復雜化，將國際物流績效的優(yōu)點成為焦點。Adding to this comple

14、xity is the continuing trend toward more sophisticated automated manufacturing to increase quality and decrease labor costs.與這種復雜化伴隨的趨勢是用以增加質量和降低勞動力成本的更加精密的自動化生產。For global logistics managers, these trends dictate increasingly complex logistics system design.對于全球物流經理人，這些趨勢使物流系統(tǒng)設計日益復雜。9Increased Disp

15、ersion of ProductionDemand and supply pipelines must now circle the globe, and factory outputs must be directed (and often redirected) with increased precision in timing.供求現(xiàn)在必須在全球范圍內進行考慮，工廠產出必須在更加精確的時間控制下進行。Multimodal transportation coupled with improved information management has helped logistics p

16、rofessionals cope with the demands of global sourcing and manufacturing. 多式聯(lián)運加上改良的信息管理可以幫助物流專家應對全球外包和制造的需求。It is now possible for logistics managers to creatively manage the inbound and outbound inventories while still in transit to and from manufacturing plants.現(xiàn)在物流經理創(chuàng)造性地管理輸入與輸出庫存成為可能，雖然仍然是從制造工廠輸出或

17、者向工廠輸入。10Gould, Stephen (2001), “Sourcing Successfully in China,” Supply Chain Management Review11Increased Dispersion of ProductionAs the business function dealing with the creation of time, place, and form utility, leading-edge logistics allows firms to increase profitability, quality, and respons

18、iveness to their fellow channel members and to consumers.當企業(yè)在實現(xiàn)時間效用，場所效用和形態(tài)效用的創(chuàng)造時，尖端物流使得企業(yè)為其渠道成員和消費者增加利潤，質量和反應速度。Because such complex systems with high performance standards are so difficult to duplicate, logistics can give a tremendous competitive advantage to the entire global supply chain. 因為這樣有著

19、高水平的復雜系統(tǒng)是很難被復制的，所以物流可以給整個全球供應鏈以巨大的競爭優(yōu)勢。12Increasing Product Line DiversityManufacturers worldwide have responded to the increasingly sophisticated needs of consumers in world by lengthening and broadening their product lines.全球制造商對消費者日益復雜化的需求做出的反應是橫向和縱向擴展其生產線。As marketers have gotten more in tune wi

20、th the needs and wants of consumers, they have expanded the variety of products offered. 營銷商為了更符合消費者需求，已經擴大了他們所提供的產品種類。13Increasing Product Line DiversityA related phenomenon is the general shortening of product life cycles observed in the 1990s, most exaggeratedly in technology products. 一個相關的現(xiàn)象是在二

21、十世紀九十年代所觀察到的全球產品生命周期變短，尤其是在技術產品頗為顯著。As demands change so rapidly, logistics system throughput time becomes critical. Goods must arrive where and when they are demanded, else they risk market obsolescence. While this may seem obvious and simplistic, the challenge faced by a firm managing a global sup

22、ply chain is quite complex.由于需求的快速變化，物流系統(tǒng)的運營時間變得至關重要。貨物必須在需要的時刻和地點被運達，否則他們將會承擔被市場淘汰的風險。雖然這可能看起來是顯而易見并簡單的，但是一個管理著全球供應鏈的公司所面臨的挑戰(zhàn)卻相當復雜。14Increasing Product Line DiversityThe case of Sonys “Mini-disc” technology. This home audio-recording format was intended as a near-CD quality replacement for the audi

23、o cassette. Mini-discs are small, so are easily amenable to both home and portable use. Mini-disc technology has been very successfully adopted by Japanese consumers, and Sony has licensed it to a number of Japanese manufacturers including JVC and Sharp.如索尼的“ Mini-disc ”技術。這種家庭唱片是打算作為錄音帶的替代品，并具有接近CD

24、的音質。Mini-disc很小，所以很容易用于家庭和隨身攜帶。Mini-disc技術已十分成功地被日本消費者接受，并且索尼已授權給許多日本廠商，包括JVC and Sharp。15However, Mini-disc technology did not catch on nearly as well with North American and European consumers, with market penetrations standing at just a few percent. In contrast, American consumers rapidly adopted

25、 the MP3 standard for web-shared audio files in comparison with Japanese consumers. Thus Sony finds itself a market leader in Mini-disc products in Japan, but a market follower in MP3 products in the United States. 然而，Mini-disc技術并沒有征服北美和歐洲的消費者，通過市場份額僅得到幾個百分點。相比之下，美國的消費者比日本消費者更快地接受了通過標準的mp3網絡共享音頻文件。因

26、而索尼發(fā)現(xiàn)自己在日本的Mini-disc是市場領跑者，但在美國的mp3產品卻是市場跟隨者。16Increasing Product Line DiversityThese market-driven trends have implications for international logistics managers.這種市場導向趨勢已影響國際物流經理。There are more products in the global supply chain, with shorter life cycles, and with more divergent sourcing requireme

27、nts. These developments inherently raise the complexity of the logistics task.現(xiàn)在在國際物流供應鏈上有更多的短生命周期產品，并且具有更加分散的外包需求。這樣的發(fā)展必定會使物流的任務更為復雜化。17Increasing Product Line DiversityDominant power retailers increasingly are willing to do business only with partners who can provide such service. And as manufactu

28、ring costs have declined worldwide, increased focus is put on logistics costs. 占統(tǒng)治地位的大零售商日益希望與可以提供這樣服務的合作者進行生意往來。并且隨著全球制造成本的下降，人們將更多的目光集中于物流成本上。Corporate management will expect logistics costs to fall with increased logistics system efficiency in the same way they have seen manufacturing costs fall

29、with increases in manufacturing efficiency. 公司管理層希望將物流成本下降的同時物流系統(tǒng)效率同樣增加，正如制造成本下降而制造效率同時增加那樣。18全球性供應鏈管理全球營運與供應鏈變得越來越重要是非常明顯的。在許多方面來說，全球供應鏈管理與橫跨大片地理區(qū)域的國內供應鏈管理是相似的。假如國際供應鏈網絡能有效管理，它將能提供許多額外的機會。必須注意許多額外的潛在問題及陷阱。 19全球性供應鏈全球性供應鏈的模式：國際分銷系統(tǒng)：這種類型系統(tǒng)的生產仍然以本土為主，但分銷系統(tǒng)及一部分營銷發(fā)生在海外。國際供貨商：原材料與零部件由海外供應商提供，產品的最終裝配仍在國內進

30、行。在一些情況下，產品裝配完成后運往海外銷售。 離岸加工： 國外加工，運回國內銷售和配送。全球性供應鏈：產品的進貨、生產、銷售的整個過程都發(fā)生在全球不同的工廠。20全球性供應鏈管理多尼爾等人認為：驅動企業(yè)全球化發(fā)展趨勢的幾種力量：全球市場力量 Global Market Forces科技的力量 Technological Forces全球成本力量 Global Cost Forces政治及經濟力量 Political and Economic Forces21全球市場力量 Foreign competition in local markets全球市場力量包括了由外國競爭者所創(chuàng)造的壓力，及外國

31、顧客所創(chuàng)造的機會。 Growth in foreign demand許多公司需求成長的機會是在外國及新興的市場中。全世界對產品需求逐漸增加的一個原因是全球信息的增多。 Global presence as a defensive tool藉由加入具高度競爭性的市場中，公司被迫去發(fā)展以及增加尖端的技術和產品。例如：要成為軟件業(yè)的領導者，你必須在美國市場內進行競爭。 Presence in state-of-the-art marketsJapan - consumer electronicsGermany - machine toolsUS: software22科技的力量 Diffusion

32、of knowledge知識的擴散Many high tech components developed overseas許多高科技組件在海外研發(fā)Need close relationships with foreign suppliers需要與外國供應商建立緊密關系。Technology sharing/collaborations科技分享/協(xié)作Access to technology/markets獲得技術/市場Global location of R&D facilities R&D設施全球定位Close to production (as cycles get shorter)靠近產地

33、（周期變短）Close to expertise (Indian programmers)靠近專家23全球成本力量 Low labor cost 低勞動成本Diminishing importance (Costs underestimated, benefits overestimated) 重要性在降低(成本被低估，效益高估)在過去，低成本的非技術性勞工是決定工廠地點的必然因素。 最近許多案例的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，較便宜的非技術性勞工的成本無法抵過在偏遠地區(qū)工廠營運的其它相關成本。Other cost priorities 其他成本優(yōu)勢Integrated supplier infrastructu

34、re (as suppliers become more involved in design) 一體化的供應商設施（供應商更多地參與設計）Skilled labor 熟練勞動力Capital intensive facilities 資本集中型設施tax breaks 減稅joint ventures 合資price breaks 價格優(yōu)惠cost sharing 分擔費用24政治與經濟力量 Exchange rate fluctuations and operating flexibility 外匯匯率波動與運營柔性Regional trade agreements (Europe, No

35、rth America, Pacific Rim)區(qū)域性的貿易協(xié)議（歐洲、環(huán)太平洋或北美貿易區(qū)）Value of being in a country in one of these regions 對位于這些地區(qū)的國家的價值Implications for supply network design對于供應網絡設計的意義Reevaluation of foreign facilities (Production processes designed to avoid tariffs) 重估國外設施（為了避免關稅的生產流程再設計）將會使企業(yè)擴張至區(qū)域團體之中的某一國家。對公司而言，在內可能具有

36、獲取原料或制造上的優(yōu)勢。25Political and Economic ForcesTrade protection mechanisms 貿易保護機制Tariffs 關稅Quotas 配額Voluntary export restrictions 自動的出口限制Japanese automakers in US Local content requirements 當?shù)匦枨骉I/Intel factories in EuropeJapanese automakers in the EUHealth/environmental regulations 健康/環(huán)境管制Japanese refu

37、sed to import US skis for many years (different snow)Government procurement policies 政府采購政策 Up to 50% advantage for American companies on US Defense contracts26全球供應鏈風險與優(yōu)勢 世界正趨向標準化產品的發(fā)展。模塊化時代(青木昌彥，2001)。越來越多的大市場對產品的開放遠超過過去經理人員所能想象的。利用這個趨勢，企業(yè)可以實現(xiàn)關于生產、管理、配銷、營銷等的規(guī)模經濟。 全球供應鏈可以提供企業(yè)彈性來面對國際市場中的不確定性，這彈性可用來抗拒

38、與全球企業(yè)攸關的幾項因素所帶來的風險。 27全球供應鏈風險 匯率波動營運曝露 (operational exposure) 顧客反應競爭者的反應供貨商的反應政府的反應28Currency ExposureCurrency ExposureThe results of transactions denominated in foreign currencies change (cash deposits, debt obligations) 以外幣表示的交易變化的結果（現(xiàn)金存款，債務）Currency Exposure Result of translating foreign financia

39、l statements into the currency of the parent company 由于將外國財務報表轉化為母公司貨幣的結果Financial instruments used to hedge these 用金融工具防范29Currency ExposureChanges a firms competitive position and future cash flows 改變一家公司的競爭地位及未來的現(xiàn)金流量In the short run, changes in currency rates dont necessarily reflect changes in i

40、nflation rates 在短期內，匯率變動并不一定反映通貨膨脹變化率Regional operations become relatively more or less expensive區(qū)域運營變得相對比較便宜30Operating ExposuresCustomer reactions 顧客反應Competitor reactions 競爭者反應market share 市場占有率Profit 利潤Supplier reactions 供應商反應Government reaction 政府反應31應付全球供應鏈風險 Speculative Strategy 投機性策略Bet on a

41、 single scenario 孤注一擲Japanese auto manufacturing in Japan：20世紀70-80年代，認為把生產地設在日本更有利，盡管勞動力成本高，但是可以利用匯率、生產力和投資方面的有利條件。但日本勞動力持續(xù)上升，匯率堅挺，廠商受到損失，不得不海外設廠。Hedged Strategy 避險性策略Losses in one area offset by gains in another 堤內損失堤外補Volkswagen in US, Brazil, Mexico, GermanyFlexible Strategy 彈性策略32Flexibility St

42、rategiesFlexibility to take advantages of operational exposure 利用營運曝露優(yōu)勢的彈性Requires a flexible supply chain 需要柔性化的供應鏈multiple suppliers 多個供應商flexible facilities 靈活設施excess capacity 額外能力various distribution channels 多分銷渠道Can be expensive to implement 實施起來代價高昂coordination mechanisms 協(xié)調機制capital investm

43、ents 資本投資loss of economies of scale 喪失規(guī)模經濟33Flexible StrategiesProduction/sourcing shifts生產/采購轉移：不同設施之間平衡，如匯率影響、勞動力成本變化可以重新選址。Information sharing信息共享：共享信息，可以發(fā)現(xiàn)新機會。global coordination全球協(xié)調：市場杠桿。一處受到競爭壓力，可以抄對手的后院。political leverage政治杠桿：如果政府拖拉或是稅收費高，則迅速轉移生產。34Requirements for global strategy implementat

44、ion five basic functions of firms產品開發(fā) Design products that can be modified easily for major markets. 產品設計可以進行改良以適應各個大市場采購Ensure that the quality and delivery options from various suppliers are compatible 確認從不同供應商那里獲得的質量與交貨選擇相協(xié)調Compare the pricing of various suppliers 在不同供應商之間比較價格Sufficient suppliers

45、 in different regions are at hand 在不同地區(qū)都有充足的供應商35Requirements for global strategy implementation five basic functions of firms生產Excess capacity and plants in several regions shifting production 額外能力 +工廠分布在幾個地區(qū)轉換生產Effective communications systems 有效通信系統(tǒng)Centralized management centralized information集中

46、管理信息集中需求管理Projected demand and available product Marketing and sales plans 預計需求和現(xiàn)有產品營銷和銷售計劃Information is best supplied by analysts located in each region 各個地區(qū)分別分析的信息是最有效的communication 溝通/通信訂單履行Centralized system 集中機制36全球供應鏈管理問題 Regional vs. International Products一些種類的產品，其中的每一種都有不同的全球需求條件具區(qū)域特性的產品：有些

47、產品必須針對某些地區(qū)做一些特殊的設計及制造。例如：汽車的設計通常是具區(qū)域特性的。當然，即使是區(qū)域性的設計有異，有效的供應鏈管理可以利用共同的零件，或不同的設計來組裝。 真正的全球性產品：這些產品是真正全球性的，意即是不須為了全球的銷售而做任何的修正、改變。Coca-colaLevis的牛仔褲及麥當勞的漢堡。奢侈品品牌，如：Coach及Gucci。可口可樂及麥當勞非常倚賴特定的區(qū)域性制造、裝瓶工廠與配銷網絡；但其它產品則基本上透過相同方式配銷全球。 37Local Autonomy vs. Central Control集中式的控制對善用所討論過的一些策略可能是很重要的；但在許多案例中，允許供應

48、鏈的當?shù)刈灾鳈嗍怯衅湟饬x的。有時，在獨立的區(qū)域營運系統(tǒng)證明成功之后，總部會無法抗拒誘惑而來干預營運系統(tǒng)，因而造成績效變差。 依據(jù)相關區(qū)域的特性，緩和對此地區(qū)性商業(yè)活動的期望是很重要的。38全球供應鏈管理問題各種各樣風險：匯率波動既是機會，也是風險。欠發(fā)達地區(qū)海外工廠管理復雜，培訓費用、生產率低。合作伙伴會成為競爭對手。技術出口到中國公司或政府，與技術來源國競爭只是遲早的事情。日立，過去是摩托羅拉的特許生產商，現(xiàn)在已經成為獨立的微芯片加工廠；東芝，過去曾經為3M生產復印機，現(xiàn)在是全球主要的復印機供應廠。臺灣Sunrise Plywood and Furniture，過去很長一段時間是美國加州Mi

49、ssion Furniture的合作伙伴，現(xiàn)在這是其主要的競爭對手。貿易保護變化。39全球物流差異40Strategic Approaches for Global SCMChopra and Meindl (2001) Supply Chain Management: Strategy, Planning, and Operations propose two generic strategies for managing supply chains. 供應鏈管理戰(zhàn)略、規(guī)劃、和運營Chopra and Meindl (2001) 中：提出了兩種通用的供應鏈管理戰(zhàn)略。Each of these

50、 strategies begins with a thorough understanding of end customer needs and requirements. 這兩種管理戰(zhàn)略都以徹底的了解終端客戶的需要與需求為前提。Todays sophisticated market segmentation strategies result in groupings of consumers with different demand characteristics. 當今復雜的市場細分戰(zhàn)略導致了以不同需求特征劃分的消費者群體。41Strategic Approaches for Gl

51、obal SCMConsider, for example, your own differences in need when purchasing gasoline under two different conditions: close to home and while traveling on vacation. 想一下，例如你在兩種不同情況下對于購買汽油的不同需求：在家附近和在旅游中。When youre buying gasoline in your home town, you likely will know a number of gas stations locatio

52、ns, as well as which ones generally have the best prices. You may also routinely purchase all your gasoline at the same station out of habit. Thus your demand for gasoline in your home town is likely to be strongly influenced by price and perhaps by habit. 當你在家的周圍購買汽油時，你很可能知道許多加油站的位置，并且其中一些價格低廉。你還可能

53、會習慣性在同一家加油站購買汽油。所以你在家時對汽油的需求會被價格或者也可能習慣強烈影響。When traveling on vacation, however, price and habit may be less significant influences compared to ease of station access to the highway, a single stop with restaurant and fuel, or other issues of convenience associated with your lack of knowledge of the

54、gas stations in a strange area. 但當在旅行度假中，與加油站是否靠近高速公路，是否靠近餐廳以及其他的方便相比，價格與習慣就不那么重要了，而且你在陌生的區(qū)域缺乏對于加油站位置的概念。42Strategic Approaches for Global SCMSix such common differences in demand attributes are cited by Chopra and Meindl: Chopra & Meindl提出六種常見需求差異的屬性：Quantity of the product needed in each lot. 每一單需

55、求產品數(shù)量2. Response times customers are willing to tolerate. 顧客可等待的反應時間3. Variety of products required by customers. 顧客所需的產品種類4. Service level required by customers.顧客的服務需求水平5. Price sensitivity of the customer. 顧客的價格敏感性6. Desired rate of innovation in the product by customers. 客戶理想的產品創(chuàng)新率。43Consider tw

56、o extremes in demand: planned and emergency. Under conditions where demand is anticipated, customers may plan to purchase large quantities, be more tolerant of delayed response times, accept limited variety from a single vendor (when using other vendors may also be planned), tolerate vagueness in se

57、rvice level but with expectations for reduced price, and await innovations. 考慮需求的兩個極端情況：計劃內需求與緊急需求。在需求情況已被預測的情況下，顧客可能希望購買大量物品，并且可以等待更長的反應時間，接受單一賣主的有限品種（使用其他賣主的情況同樣已在計劃之內），容忍模糊的服務水平，但會希望降低報價，并等待革新When demand is urgent as in an emergency, customers purchase only quantities immediately needed, require

58、urgent response time, may require a large variety of complementary goods from the same vendor, demand precise and prompt service but with reduced sensitivity to price, and demand proven technologies.當需求很緊急，顧客僅購買當時急用的數(shù)量，需要緊急反應時間，可能會需要從同一賣主購買許多不同種類的互補物品，需要很準確且快速的服務，但價格敏感性降低，并要求成熟的技術。44Given difference

59、s in demand characteristics, Chopra and Meindl characterize supply chains as necessarily either more efficient or more responsive.由于不同的需求特點， Chopra and Meindl將供應鏈分為效率性和響應性兩種。In most aspects of supply chain management, there are significant cost tradeoffs between efficiency and responsiveness. 在供應鏈管理

60、的大多數(shù)方面，都在效率性與響應性方面存在著至關重要的成本權衡。For example, a supply chain with an overall efficiency strategy may have as hallmarks long-term partnership arrangements, highly specified roles, focused manufacturing approaches, a relatively narrow assortment of products, and long lead times. 舉例來說，一個具有整體效率策略的供應鏈，可以具有