新結(jié)構(gòu)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)課件

1、Kuznets LectureNew Structural Economics: A Framework for Rethinking DevelopmentJustin Yifu LinChief Economist and Senior Vice Presidentthe World BankMarch 1, 20111AKuznets LectureNew StructuraOverview of PresentationWhy do we need to rethink developmentThe New Structural EconomicsIndustrial Policy a

2、nd Growth Identification and Facilitation: An application of new structural economics 2AOverview of PresentationWhy doWHY DO WE NEED TO RETHINK DEVELOPMENT3AWHY DO WE NEED TO RETHINK DEVEEconomic Crisis and Crisis in EconomicsEconomic TheoryExplain Observed Economic PhenomenaGuide Economic Policies

3、or ChoicesRethinkingEconomicsFailure to:Failure to: 4AEconomic Crisis and Crisis inHow has economic development theory evolved?1950196020102000197019801990Structuralist ApproachFocus on Market Failures:Import Substitution StrategyMiserable resultsLiberalization ApproachFocus on Government Failures:P

4、rivatization and Marketization Mixed ResultsMarket based economies with proactive role for governmentSuccessful East Asian Tigers: Export PromotionChina, Vietnam and Mauritius: Dual-track approach to transition RethinkDevelopment5AHow has economic development tWorld Bank has been in the process of r

5、ethinking economic developmentExport Orientation and Market Friendly GovernmentOpenness; Macro stability; High rates of saving & investment; Market mechanism; Committed, credible & capable governmentNo one-size fits all6AWorld Bank has been in the proTHE STRUCTURAL ECONOMICS7ATHE STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC

6、S7AIntroducingNew Structural EconomicsApplication of neoclassical economic approach to understand changing economic structure in developmentProvides a consistent framework for the five stylized facts of Growth Report as well as the findings from the East Asian Miracle and Lessons from the 1990sContr

7、ibutes to new theoretical and policy insights for economic development8AIntroducingNew Structural IntroducingNew Structural EconomicsSustainable income growth is the foundation for poverty reduction and developmentSustainable income growth is a recent phenomenon The sustainable income growth is a re

8、sult of continuous technological innovation as well as structural change9AIntroducingNew Structural Industrial Structure in New England, 1900s10AIndustrial Structure in New EnIndustrial Structure in New England, 1600s 11AIndustrial Structure in New EnIndustrial Structure in New England, 1800s 12AInd

9、ustrial Structure in New EnNew Structural Economics (NSE): Key ConceptsThe main hypothesis: Industrial structure is endogenous to endowment structureInitial Endowments (determine the economys total budgets and relative factor prices at time t)Comparative advantageOptimal industrial structure (endoge

10、nous).Dynamics: Income growth depends onUpgrading of endowments Upgrading industrial structure “hard” and “soft” infrastructureFollowing comparative advantage is the best way to upgrade endowment structure and to sustain industrial upgrading, income growth and poverty reduction.13ANew Structural Eco

11、nomics (NSE)New Structural Economics (NSE): Key Concepts (2)Firms maximize profitschoice of technology and industries based on relative factor pricesNeed for competitive market systemIndustrial upgrading needs toSolve coordination problemsAddress externalities Need for a facilitating state14ANew Str

12、uctural Economics (NSE)NSE and The Growth Commissions Stylized FactsPolicy Recommendation from NSEFollowing comparative advantage : ConditionsMarket economy Facilitating StateThe results:Openness and advantage of backwardnessCompetitiveness and strong external as well as fiscal accounts: fewer home-

13、grown crises and larger scope for countercyclical fiscal policies.Large economic surplus and high returns to investment: high rate of savings and investment.The NSEs recommendations are consistent with the East Asian Miracles findings.Growth Report Stylized Facts: #4 #5 #1 #2 #3 15ANSE and The Growt

14、h Commission“No one size fits all” then “What size fits what?”New theoretical insights from the NSE: New structural economics emphasizes that countries at different levels of development have different optimal industrial structures, firm sizes, capital requirements and nature of risks, therefore, ma

15、ny institutions and policies should be different accordingly and have different policy insights compared to the old structuralism and neoclassics: Financial institutions:Old structuralism: Direct government mobilization and allocation of financial resources.Neoclassics: Financial liberalization and

16、development of modern big banks and equity marketNew structural economics: Optimal financial structure will be different depending on level of development. For low-income countries, small, local financial institutions should be the core of financial structure; and big banks and equity market will pl

17、ay increasingly important role as the firm size and risks increase with the level of development.Fiscal stimulus:Old structuralism: Keynesian stimulus, using tax and expenditure policies to offset business cycles.Neoclassics: Ricardian Equivalence, warming against the use of fiscal stimulus.New Stru

18、ctural economics: Beyond Keynesianism, using public investments to invest in productivity-enhancing, bottleneck-releasing infrastructure projects as countercyclical measures. 16A“No one size fits all” then “WTHE INDUSTRIAL POLICY &GROWTH IDENTIFICATION AND FACILITATION17ATHE INDUSTRIAL POLICY &GROWT

19、The desirability and failures of Industrial PolicyEconomic development is a process of continuous process of industrial upgrading and structural transformation. The state should play a facilitating role in the process.Industrial policy is a necessary instrument for the state to play the facilitating

20、 role Contents of coordination will be different, depending on industries. The governments resources and capacity are limited. The government needs to use them strategically.The sad fact is that most governments in the developing world used industrial policies but failed, the reason was:Attempt to d

21、evelop industries that went against comparative advantageThe firms in the industrial policys targeted sectors were non-viable in competitive markets and required government policy supports for their initial investment and continuous operations. The supports were implemented through price distortions

22、. As a result, planning and administrative allocations were required.This led to rent-seeking, directly unproductive profit seeking, and soft budget constraints. 18AThe desirability and failures The existing approaches for industrial development and their drawbacksThe existing practices:Business env

23、ironmentThe goal is to introduce a whole set of the first-best institutions The issues are:The government may not have the capacity to introduce all those changesThe first-best institutions may be different at different stage of developmentNo identification of industries with latent comparative adva

24、ntages and no compensation for the first moversGrowth DiagnosticsThe goal is to remove binding constraintsThe issues are:Binding constraints are endogenous to industriesIt relies on survey of existing firms. Many of them may be in industries where the country has no comparative advantages.No firms w

25、ill be in the new industries that the countries have latent comparative advantageAim before fire: For an industrial policy to be successful, it should target sectors that conform to the economys latent comparative advantage:Firms will be viable and the sectors will be competitive once the government

26、 helps the firms overcome the coordination and externality issuesBut how to pick the sectors that are the economys latent comparative advantages19AThe existing approaches for inWhat Can Be Learned From HistoryHistorical experiences show that successful countries industrial policies, in general, targ

27、eted dynamic industries in successful countries with a similar endowment structure and somewhat higher per capita income:Britain targeted the Netherlands industries in the 16th and 17th century, its per capita GDP was about 70 % of Netherlands.Germany, France, and USA targeted Britains industries in

28、 the late 19th century, their per capita income were about 60 to 75 % of Britains per capita GDPIn Meiji restoration, Japan targeted Prussias industries, its per capita GDP was about 40% of Prussias. In the 1960s, Japan targeted USAs industries, its per capita GDP was about 40% of USAs per capita GD

29、PIn the 1960s-1980s, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore targeted Japans industries, their per capita income was about 30% of Japans per capita GDPIn the 1970s, Mauritius targeted Hong Kongs industries, its per capita income was about 50% of Hong Kongs.In the 1980s, Ireland targeted information

30、industries, its per capita income was about 45% of the USAs.In the 1990s, Costa Rica targeted memory chip assembly and testing, its per capita GDP was about 40% of that of Taiwan, which was the main economy in this sector. Unsuccessful industrial policies in general target industries in countries wh

31、ere their per capita GDPs were less than 20 per cent of those targeted countries.A new approach for industrial policy: Growth identification and facilitation20AWhat Can Be Learned From HistoStep 1: Identifying sectors with latent comparative advantageFind dynamic growing countries with a similar end

32、owment structure and with about 100% higher per capita income. Identify tradable industries that have grown well in those countries for the last 20 years as the potential targets of industries for upgrading or diversificationSimilar to Hausmanns idea of jumping to nearby trees, but easier to impleme

33、ntConsistent with FDI research suggesting technology transfer is easier when domestic and foreign firms are closer to each other on the technological frontier (Blomstrom, Kokko)21AStep 1: Identifying sectors wiStep 2: Removing constraints for existing firms.How?See if some private domestic firms are

34、 already in those industries (of which may be existing or nascent). Identify constraints to quality upgrading, further firm entry, and reduction of transaction costs (hard and soft infrastructure). Take action to remove constraintsMethods:Value-chain analysisGrowth Diagnostics (Hausmann, Rodrik, and

35、 Velasco (2008)Investment Climate Assessments (World Bank)Successful ExamplesChile: wineEcuador: cut flowers22AStep 2: Removing constraints fStep 3: Seek FDI or organize New Firm Incubation ProgramsIn industries where no domestic firms are currently present, seek FDI from countries examined in step

36、1, or organize new firm incubation programs.Famous examples of FDI:garment sector in BangladeshTextile industry in MauritiusMemory chip assembly and testing in Costa RicaElectronics and other consumer products in ChinaInformation industries in IrelandLaura Alfaro and Andrew Charlton, in a paper in t

37、he Journal of International Economics, show that:Many countries promote FDI selectivelyTargeted sectors grow fasterFamous example of incubation programs:Taiwan-Chinas Hsingchu Science-based Industrial Park for the development of electronic and IT industriesFundacin Chiles demonstration of commercial

38、 salmon farming23AStep 3: Seek FDI or organize NStep 4: Scale up private firms self discoveryIn addition to the industries identified above, the government should also pay attention to spontaneous self discovery by private enterprises and give support to scale up the successful private innovations in new industriesExamplesIndias information industryEthiopias cut flower exportsPerus asparagus exports24AStep 4: Scale up private firmStep 5: Create zones or industrial parks, and encourage industrial clustersIn