合作突圍中美及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道人大重陽(yáng)研究報(bào)告

1、消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料投資向中國(guó)人民大學(xué)捐贈(zèng)并設(shè)立教育基金運(yùn)營(yíng)的主要資助項(xiàng)目。作為中國(guó)特色新型智庫(kù)，人大重陽(yáng)聘請(qǐng)了全球數(shù)十位前政要、銀行家、知名學(xué)者為高級(jí)研究員，旨在關(guān)注現(xiàn)實(shí)、建言國(guó)家、服務(wù)人民。目前，人大重陽(yáng)中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年來(lái)，人大重陽(yáng)在金融中國(guó)人民大學(xué)全球治理研究中心 (Global Governance ResearchCenter，向中國(guó)人民大學(xué)捐贈(zèng)并由中國(guó)人民大學(xué)重陽(yáng)金融研究院（人大重陽(yáng)）負(fù)責(zé)運(yùn)營(yíng)管理的教育基金項(xiàng)目。中國(guó)人民大學(xué)全球治理研究中心由原外交部副部長(zhǎng)、人大重陽(yáng)高級(jí)研究員何亞非領(lǐng)銜，前中國(guó)銀行副行長(zhǎng)、國(guó)際商會(huì)執(zhí)行董事、人大重陽(yáng)高級(jí)研究員張燕玲擔(dān)

2、任學(xué)術(shù)委員會(huì)主任，旨在構(gòu)建高層次、高水準(zhǔn)的全球政、伐謀、孕才的智庫(kù)使命。自 2018 年以來(lái)，中國(guó)人民大學(xué)全球治理研究中心連續(xù)四年入圍由美國(guó)賓消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料 1引言22231.1美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的困境-危機(jī)漸行漸近1.2中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的困難-轉(zhuǎn)型任務(wù)艱巨1.3全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的困態(tài)-滯漲威脅日增47643.1 美國(guó)對(duì)華經(jīng)貿(mào)政策正處于脫鉤與“再掛鉤”的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期3.2 美國(guó)須擯棄不惜經(jīng)濟(jì)代價(jià)遏制中國(guó)的冷戰(zhàn)思維，選擇合作性而非損人利己性的“再掛鉤” 6673建議一：建立與政治分離的經(jīng)濟(jì)“再掛鉤”體系消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料建議二：實(shí)質(zhì)性地減磅脫鉤措施，走出結(jié)束貿(mào)易與科技戰(zhàn)的第一步建議三：開(kāi)展抗疫合作與宏觀政策協(xié)調(diào)，加快

3、兩國(guó)及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)從新冠疫情復(fù)蘇建議四：加大在氣候變化和能源領(lǐng)域的合作力度建議五：重啟雙邊投資協(xié)議（BIT）談判，發(fā)掘在新興產(chǎn)業(yè)和金融行業(yè)的雙向投資新領(lǐng)域建議六：探討基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)合作建議七：抓緊尋求在全球經(jīng)貿(mào)體制改革緊迫議題上的共識(shí)建議八：賦予地方政府與民間在兩國(guó)經(jīng)貿(mào)交流方面的更大自主權(quán)79消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道述11000億美元相當(dāng)于美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的5%左右。中美經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系支撐美國(guó)260萬(wàn)個(gè) 消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料

4、突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道Collaboration & Breakthrough: Dilemma Resolution forAmerican, Chinese, and Global EconomiesNowadays,ontheonehandtheUS,Chinaandglobaleconomies are all facing different dilemmas, and on the other hand the economic and trade relatio

5、ns between the US and China are at a key stage for whether to decouple or to“ recouple”. Such being the case, how the US and China should resolve the dilemmas, what the outcomes of the decoupling would be and what the prospects of the “recoupling” would look like, have become deep market concerns fo

6、r the time being. This paper attempts to respond to these concerns, with conclusions that the decoupling will be a dead end and only a collaborative “recoupling” can break through, that is, to resolve the dilemmas for each party, particularly for the US economy, so as to enable the US, China and glo

7、bal economies to reembark on a healthy developmentpath. It should be recognized that the United States, China, and the restoftheworldareallfacingdifferentdilemmasThe predicament of the US economy Crises approach nglyFirst, structural flaws of the economy are getting more noticeable by the day in the

8、 US. They predominantly manifest in 1) the manufacturing share in the economy is too small, with value-added accounting for an underwhelming消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道10.8% of GDP in 2020, in danger of hollowing out; 2) the investment portion is too low, with capital formation representing only 16%

9、while final consumption accounting for 81% of GDP in 2020; 3) the dependency on fictitious and high- end industries are too high as those sectors accounting for 8% or above of GDP in 2020, that is, real estate, professional and commercial services, governmental services, manufacturing, finance, and

10、education, healthcare & social welfare sectorswhosesharesinGDPwere13.4%,12.9%,12.8%,10.8%,8.6%and8.6%respectively, are mostly the service sectors with a high degree of fictitiousness, while highly dependent on high-tech and military-related sectors; and 4) poverty gap is too wide as income Gini inde

11、x reached 49% and the accumulated wealth of top 1% was much more than that of the bottom 90% in2020.Second,macroeconomicpoliciesarefallingintoa“stimulationtrap.”USpolicy makers have exercised a series of extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy easing, including zero interest rates and quantitative

12、easing (QE) for monetary policy, and massive economic relief, tax reduction, fiscal deficit, treasury bond issuances and government debt monetization, leading to breakings of various policy limits, for fiscal policy. Thus, policies have fallen into an almost inescapable“stimulationtrap”,eveniftheFed

13、hasbeenrecentlytryingtotighten policy upon highinflation.Third, the US faces multiple layers of a dilemma if they were to fix the above structural flaws and policy deviations, including 1) the dilemma between “manufacturing return” and salary inflexibility: its no simple task in bringing down salary

14、 levels of workers; 2) the dilemma between increasing investment and high consumption habit of residents: it is too difficult to change peoples consumption habit; 3) the dilemma between the policy easing and tightening: the market would fall deeper into the “stimulation trap” with lower marginal eff

15、ect if the former happens, while the growth would be undercut and the balance among interest groups would be harder to maintain if the latter happens; and 4)消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道The dilemma between reducing the wealth gap and maintaining market vitality: attempting to “bring down” the rich wou

16、ld reduce market vitality, especially for the two leading growth drivers of finance and high-techsectors.Fourth, a financial-economic crisis and a political-social crisis are mutually promoting and approaching increasingly. The US is also experiencing intense political and social conflicts, includin

17、g racial, identity, partisan, social class, and generational. With these conflicts intertwining with economic predicament, the combined crisis is closing in by theday.ThedifficultiesforChinaseconomyArduoustransitionmissionsAfter 40 years of high economic growth, Chinas economy is confronted with ase

18、ries of arduous transitionmissions.First and foremost, economic growth is transitioning from high tomedium-high rates. After four decades of 9.2% compounded annual growth, whether China can achieve medium-high rates in the next few decades is essential while being met with manychallenges.Second, a t

19、echnology leap is pressing. Chinas economy has entered into the stage of technological advancement-driven while the world is marching into a fourth “Industrial Revolution.” In addition, the US is trying hard to suppress Chinas rise in the critical tech sector, pushing China to overcome all difficult

20、ies to make a technologyleap.Third,structuralupgradeisanotherpressingmatter.Chinaseconomicstructure falls behind advanced economies with quite some distance. The structural upgrade is the only way for China to improve its development quality while servingasadrivingforceformedium-highgrowth.Variousch

21、allengesareahead and must beconquered.消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道Fourth, reform and opening up must fight the brutal battle. State-owned enterprises and financial reforms are vital ongoing issues, while dual-circulation, aging, green finance, digital economy are the key new areas. None of these are

22、easy tasks.The trapped state of the global economy Growing threat of Global economic growth to slow down gradually. It has experienced a downward trend amid great ups and downs since 2007. Moving forward, with China and US economies weakening while other countries, including the developed and develo

23、ping, all facing tremendous economic development challenges, the global growth is poised to continue the downtrend step bystep.Global inflation to fluctuate upwards. The trend that CPI inflation will rise while fluctuating is unlikely to change. Seemingly non-stop expansionary monetary policy in the

24、 advanced countries and unstoppable commodity price increasesaredeterminingtherisingtideofCPI,whileassetinflationisinevitable at the sametime.Meanwhile, the divergences between the rich and poor countries, developed and emerging & developing economies, and southern and northern hemispheres, are set

25、to grow in terms of economic drive, technological advancement and finance & economic risk management as well as pandemic controls, while globalization facing turmoil from the anti-globalization forces led by the USs deteriorating conducts and arbitrarybehaviors.MeanwhileitmustbeawarethatChina-USecon

26、omicandtrade relationships are extraordinarily close, contributing significantly to both economies as well as the globaleconomy消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道China-US economic and trade relationships are extraordinarilycloseChina-US economic and trade relationships are composed of commodity trade, servi

27、ce trade, two-way direct investments, and two-way security investments, as well as one countrys multinational enterprises gaining sales in the other country as an accumulating effect of the directinvestments.China and the US are each others largest trade partners. In the first 11 months of 2021, US

28、goods export to China reached 162.4 billion USD while importing 519.9 billion USD from the country, leading to a US deficit of 357.5 billion USD;Inthefirstthreequartersof2021,USserviceexporttoChinareached28.1 billion USD while importing 14.7 billion USD from the country,leaving a US surplus of 13.4

29、billionUSD.Two-way investments accumulate to form high value assets and earnings. In 2020, the US invested 2.3 billion USD in China while China returned 6 billion USD, netting 3.7 billion USD of inflow for the US. It should be recognizedmore that the investment balance has grown fast, hitting 124 bi

30、llion USD (the US to China) and 84 billion USD (China to the US) respectively, creating a large number of multinational enterprises in each country. The US multinationals in China gained stunning scale and benefits, reaching over 70,000 companies amongwhich97%areprofit-making.In2017,thegrosssalesoft

31、hesecompanies attained around 700 billion USD with gross profits of 50 billionUSD.There is a structural imbalance between the US-China economic and trade relationships. The US sees a large deficit in goods trade but runs a surplus in all the service trade, direct investment and financial investment.

32、 In the meantime, the sales of US multinationals in China are much higher than those of the Chinese multinationals in theUS.In total, in terms of annual sales, Chinas goods export to the US + Chinas消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道service export to the US + Chinese multinationals sales in the US add up to

33、 around 900 billion USD, while in comparison, US goods export to China + US service export to China + US multinationals sales in China add up to 1100 billion or 1.1 trillionUSD.These are enormous numbers, meaning both countries have gained massivebenefitsfromtheireconomicandtraderelationship.As1100b

34、illionislargerthan900 billion, apparently, the US gained higher profits than China did. It therefore stands no ground when the US keeps complaining about the “l(fā)oss” from its economic and trade relations withChina.Contributions to the American, Chinese and global economies all cannot beunderestimated

35、HugecontributiontotheUSeconomy.Theaforementioned1100billionUSDof UStotal“sales”toChinaamountto5%ofitseconomy,2%directcontributionto it if converted to value-added with much more significant indirect contribution. Export to and import from China accounts for 7% and 20%, respectively, of US gross valu

36、es. The 700 billion USD of US multinationals sales in China amounts to 3% of the US economy, 1.2% direct contribution if converted to value-added. According to Chinas statistics, the US-China economic and trade relationship supports 2.6 million jobs, saving an average of 850 USD annually for America

37、n families. Chinas export to the US provides abundant products of good quality at fair prices, and irreplaceable raw materials and intermediate products.According tomarketdata,85%oftoys,45%ofprotectivemasks,80%ofdrugs,90%ofrare earth materials, and 70% of weapon accessories are made in China. On the

38、 other hand, China is the largest soybean importer from the US, the fastest-growing beef importer, one of the major Boeing airliner importers, and one of the major grain importers. The 700 billion USD undoubtedly benefits these multinationals and their US headquarters in terms of profits and their i

39、ndirect benefits to the消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道US economy should not be overlooked either. For instance, a large amount of R&D expenditure and high-end products of US corporations rely on or apply to Chinese subsidiaries. According to a Goldman-Sachs survey, semiconductor and high-end companies l

40、ike Skyworks, Wynn Resorts, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Qorvo, Micron Technology, Texas Instruments, IPG Photonics, Western Digital, Microchip Technology, and Intel have a dependency rate of 83%, 73%, 65%, 54%, 52%, 51%, 44%, 44%, 39%, 30%, 24%, respectively, on the Chinese rket.Benefits to the Chinese econ

41、omy are also massive. Chinas goods export to the US accounts for 18% of its total goods export, which is the most crucial international demand to the country, supporting its manufacturing and employment for economic growth. Chinas goods import from the US accounts for 7% of its total goods import, s

42、upplementing Chinas demand, especially in agriculture, energy, and high-tech products. Chinas service import from the US meets Chinese peoples needs on education and tourism and company needs on R&D and software service. Chinas direct investments in the US encourage Chinese enterprises to go global

43、and accelerate modernization processes. FDI from the US supplies funds to Chinas economic development, high-end equipment&technology,andadvancedmanagementmethods.USmultinationals in China also satisfy the diverse needs of the Chinese market and accelerate Chinas industrial upgrade, technology advanc

44、ements, and management method dernization.Also a vital pillar and stabilizer for the global economy. The economic and trade relationships between China and the US are a critical supporting pillar to both. In view that the countries are the top two largest economies, two largest trade partners, and t

45、wo largest international investors, the relationships are also an essential pillar to the world economy and trade. Furthermore, the relationships are the key links for the global supply chain led by China on the消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道one hand, and the critical channels for the worldwide market l

46、iquidity led by the US on the other hand, which assure the healthy development of the global trade, investment, economic and financial markets and function as an integrator and a DecouplingissettoseriouslydeepenthesedilemmasSignificantly advance the arrivals of the US crises At least cut 6 percentag

47、e points ofGDPTrade decoupling set to be disastrous to the US at least cut 3.5 percentage points of GDP. If the US - China trade relationship decouples, the US import from China will plummet sharply, leading to a domestic supply shortage, supply chain cutoff, quick rise of inflation, causing an econ

48、omic and financial market collapse. The current US officials have finally admitted that most, 92%to be exact, of tariffs raised by the Trump Administration, are undertaken by US importers. Recent inflation in the US is caused by both the pandemic and its trade war with China. The US export to China

49、will also fall sharply. Many industries such as agriculture, energy, high-tech manufacturing, and high-end consumer products will face a steep reduction in international demand. As a response, China have also raised tariffs on some of the US agricultural, energy, and manufacturing products since the

50、 US China trade war, causing a nosedive in US agricultural products exporting to China (-53%) in 2018, as well as a reduction in oil products (-47%), and natural gas (-90%) in 2019. According to research by Oxford Economics, the US - China trade war caused a 0.5%reductioninUSGDP,alossof245,000jobs,a

51、ndanaverageof675USDincome loss for American families. According to NBER, the trade war caused the US companies marketization value to lose 1.7 trillion USD and investment to drop by 1.9%. These results are only preliminary and likely underestimated. If the消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道trade war leads t

52、o a complete trade decoupling, it will at least cut 3.5 percentage pointsofUSGDP,byapreliminaryestiamte.Investment decoupling poised to cause a huge loss for the US at least cut 2.5 percentage points of GDP. An investment decoupling means an interruption of the two-way investments. China would be fo

53、rced to cease US multinationals operating in China, leaving these companies with no choice but to pull out. Their 700 billion USD annual sales will become zero; their massive assets will plummet in value. The 700 billion USD is more than five times the US goods export to China, amounting to 3% of US

54、 GDP or representing 1.2% if converted to value-added. This will undoubtedly be a huge blow to US multinationals, which will also a huge loss to the US domestic companies and people who rely on their products, markets, profits, and R&D achievements. In turn, the indirect effect cannot under-estimate

55、d on the US economy and employment, as many companies on the chain could go bankrupt. Chinese multinationals will beforced to cease their US operations as well. Some 200,000 people employed by these companies will be dismissed, US tax income from these companies will reduce to zero, and practical li

56、nks between American and Chinese markets facilitated by these companies will no longer exist. Meanwhile, financial investments between the two countries will also halt. China will be forced to sell its trillion- dollar value of US Treasury bonds, significantly impacting the US bond market, financial

57、 market, and US Treasurys financial status. Wall Streets dream of entering the Chinese financial market will go in vain. Investments in Chinese securities and ventures by American entrepreneurs will also cease. A complete investment decoupling is to at least cut 2.5 percentage points of US GDP, by a

58、 preliminary estimate.In summary, if a complete decoupling of the US China trade and investmenthappens, there will be a loss of 6 percentage points in the USeconomy.消費(fèi)行業(yè)報(bào)告文檔資料突圍：美、中及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)解“困”之道Stagflation will evolve to a worse state. With the 6% cut, the US economy will stagnate and start to decline

59、. The government would seek further stimulationand resort to fiscal and monetary policy easing again, making the macroeconomic policies fall deeper into the “stimulation trap.” As the marginal effect reduces, however, this can hardly delay the stagnation and decline of the US economy. On another not

60、e, inflation will rise even steeper. CPI in 2021 was already over 6%, so the complete trade and investment decoupling with China is set to cause consumer product shortage and supply chain breakdown, pushing the CPI to over 10%quickly.Financial, economic, political, and social crises will break out a