國際貿(mào)易地理知識(shí)

263/263MapoftheWorldQuestionsGeographyasks:“Where?”questions(descriptiveinventory)Wherearethingslocated?Whatistheirdistributionacrossthesurfaceoftheearth?“Why?”and“How?”questions(analyticalapproach)Whyarethingslocatedwheretheyare?Howdodifferentthingsrelatetooneanotherataspecificplace?Howdodifferentplacesrelatetoeachother?Howhavegeographicpatternsandrelationshipschangedovertime?Whatisgeography?(amoreacademicdefinition)Itisconcernedwithplace,describesthechangingpatternofplaces,andattemptstounravelthemeaningoftheevolvingofsuchpatterns.Itseekstounderstandthephysicalandculturalfeaturesofplacesandtheirnaturalsettingsonthefaceoftheearth.Thespatialdimensioniscentraltogeography.Itusesadistinctivelanguage–thelanguageofmaps.?PartVI–themostinsightful&enlighteningpartthistableprovides:Geographyhelpsustounderstandtheworld,theearthasitwas,itspasttense,toexploretheworldasitis,itspresenttense,andtothinkoftheworldasitmightbe,itsfuturetense.TheCarnegieReportonHigherEducation(1991)setsforththealmostcertaindangersthatexistintheglobalfutureifwefailtoseetheworldasthus: Theworldhasbecomeamorecrowded,moreinterconnected,morevolatileandmoreunstableplace.Ifeducationcannothelpstudentsseebeyondthemselvesandbetterunderstandtheinterdependentnatureofourworld,theneachgenerationwillremainignorant,anditscapacitytolivecompetentlyandresponsiblywillbedangerouslydiminished.(p.42)MapsSomefundamentalconceptsofspaceandlocationPropertiesofspaceGeographersconsidervariousdimensionsofspace:One-dimensionalspace,Three-dimensionalspace,Two-dimensionalspacethatcanberepresentedonaplane,Thespatialelementsofpoint,line,andareamaybeusedtodefinethebasicgeographicconceptsofdistance,direction,andconnectivity.TwokindsoflocationAbsolutelocation(site)ispositioninrelationtoaconventionalgridsystem,suchaslatitudeandlongitudeorstreetaddresses;Relativelocation(situation)ispositionwithrespecttootherlocations.Itisameasureofconnectivityandaccessibility,anditusuallychangesovertime.Theconceptofrelativelocationisofgreaterinteresttoeconomicgeographersthanabsolutelocation.ThelanguageofmapsCartographers&Cartography–agraphicportrayaloflocationScaleParallelsofLatitude&MeridiansofLongitudeBothlatitudeandlongitudearemeasuredindegrees,minutes,andseconds.Equator–alatitudeof0 Allotherlatitudinallinesareparalleltotheequatorandtoeachotherandthereforearecalledparallels.Everypointonagivenparallelhasthesamelatitude. Placesnorthoftheequatorareinnorthlatitude;orv.s.southlatitude. TheNorthPoleis90N;theSouthPole90S. Placesneartheequatorareinlowlatitude;Placesnearthepoles,highlatitude. TheTropicofCancer,at23.5N,andtheTropicofCapricorn,at23.5S. TheArcticCircle,at66.5N,andtheAntarcticCircle,at66.5S. Placesbetweentropicandcirclelinesaresaidtobeinmiddlelatitude.MeridianofGreenwichorprimemeridian–alongitudeof0Meridiansoflongitudearestraightlinesconnectingthepoles.Everymeridianisdrawnduenorthandsouth.Theyconvergeatthepolesandarefarthestapartattheequator.Placeseast(west)oftheprimemeridianareineast(west)longitude.Themeridianof180,exactlyhalfwayaroundtheworldfromtheprimemeridian,istheotherdividinglinebetweenplaceseastandwestofGreenwich.Thecombinationoflatitudeandlongitudegiveusabsolutelocation.OurGlobeNorthernHemispherecontainsthebulkoftheworld’slandandmostoftheprincipalcentersofpopulationandindustry,itthereforeiscalledthe“l(fā)andhemisphere”,constitutes80%oftheworld’stotallandareaandhasapproximately91%oftheworld’spopulation.SouthernHemisphere,or“waterhemisphere”,hasonly20%ofthelandand9%ofthepopulation.Differentmaps,differentstandings,&differentperspectivesoftheworldCenter&Margin,orCore&Periphery(ethnocentrism)TheFieldofGeographyGeographyasasynthesizingdisciplineGeographyofInternationalTradeInthecaseofthiscourse,itfocusesupononeoftheworld’smostimportanteconomicactivities,theinternationaltrade,andtherefore,itfallswithinthescopeofeconomicgeography.TrendsinEconomicGeographyEconomicgeographyisconcernedwiththespatialorganizationanddistributionofeconomicactivity,theuseoftheworld’sresources,andthedistributionandexpansionoftheworldeconomy.CommercialgeographydevelopedduringtheeraofEuropeanexplorationanddiscoveryfromthe15thcenturythroughthe19thcentury:BritishscholarG.G.Chisholm(1899)Hisstatedpurposeofcommercialgeography–tostimulateintellectualinterestingeographicfactsrelatingtotrade;Hence,hisbookwasaninventoryofcommodityandtradestatistics,hisapproachwasmoredescriptivethananalytical.Economicgeographywasaffectedby3majorthemesofgeography:Human-environmentalrelations(flourisheduntil1930s),environmentaldeterminism–Climates,disease,oreventhe“coloredraces”aresomeofthedeterminantsusedtojustifyeconomicactivities.Arealdifferentiation(influentialfromthelate1930stothelate1950s),Adoptingtheviewthatallgeographicphenomenawereuniqueandthattheorybuildingwasoflittlevalue;Arealdifferentiation–differencesratherthansimilarities–amongplaces,resultedindetaileddescriptionsofproduction,exchange,andconsumptionwithvoluminousfactualdatainsomeofthegreatregionalwriting,overlookingtheneedforcomparativestudies.Arealdifferentiationdominatedgeographyattheexpenseofarealintegration.Spatialorganization(nowthedominantapproach).Howspaceisorganizedbyindividualsandsocietiestosuittheirowndesigns;Frameworkforanalyzingandinterpretinglocationdecisionsandspatialstructures;Themajorityofresearchineconomicgeographytodayremainslocationtheoryandanalysis.Itaimstounderstand“what”productsandservicesareproducedand“how”theyareproduced(i.e.withwhatcombinationofresources),aswellas“where”theyareproducedand“whythere?”Thethemeofspatialorganizationisparticularlyvaluableinhelpingustounderstandworlddevelopmentproblems.PopulationandtheWorldEconomyPopulationProblemsintheWorldTodayThestudyofpopulationiscriticallyimportantfor3reasons:Morepeoplearealiveatthistime–6billion–thanatanypointinEarth’slonghistory.Theworld’spopulationincreasedatafasterrateduringthe2ndhalfofthe20thcenturythaneverbeforeinhistory.Virtuallyallglobalpopulationgrowthisconcentratedinlessdevelopedcountries(LDC).Tostudythechallengeofincreasingthefoodsupply,reducingpollution,andencouragingeconomicgrowth,geographersmustaskwhereandwhyaregion’spopulationisdistributedasitis.whereistheworld’spopulationdistributed?wherehastheworld’spopulationincreased?whyispopulationincreasingatdifferentratesindifferentcountries?whymighttheworldfaceanoverpopulationproblem?Geography’sfocusonansweringthewhereandwhyquestionshelpstoexplaintheglobalpopulationproblemandtosuggestsolutions.theworld’soverpopulationproblemOverpopulationproblemfromtheperspectiveofglobalization:ThisproblemisnotsimplyamatterofthetotalnumberofpeopleonEarth,buttherelationshipbetweenthenumberofpeopleandtheavailabilityofresources. Problemsarisewhenanarea’spopulationexceedsthecapacityoftheenvironmenttosupportthematanacceptablestandardofliving.Overpopulationproblemfromtheperspectiveoflocaldiversity:Overpopulationisathreatinsomeregionsoftheworldbutnotinothers.Someregionshaveafavorablebalancebetweenpeopleandavailableresources,whileothersdonot.Further,theregionswiththemostpeoplearenotnecessarilythesameastheregionswithanunfavorablebalancebetweenpopulationandresources.PopulationDistributionPopulationsizeandpopulationconcentrations6billionpeople;3/4oftheworld’spopulationliveononly5%ofEarth’ssurface(whichconsistsofoceansandlessintensivelyinhabitedland);Theworld’spopulationisclusteredin5regions:EastAsia,SouthAsia,SoutheastAsia,WesternEurope,andEasternNorthAmerica.Andthese5regionsdisplaysomesimilarities:Mostoftheirpeoplelivenearanocean,ornearariverwitheasyaccesstoanocean,ratherthanintheinteriorlands.E.g.thePacificcoast,HuangandYangziRivervalleys,thecoastlinesoftheArabianSeaandtheBayofBengal(孟加拉灣),theplainsofGangesriver(恒河)，Indo-china,theAtlanticcoastofNorthAmerica,theGreatLakes,etc.Theyoccupygenerallylow-lyingareas(mid-latitudeesp.),withfertilesoilandtemperateclimate.TheyarealllocatedintheNorthernHemispherebetween10and50N,withtheexceptionofpartoftheSoutheastAsiaconcentration.SparselypopulatedregionsCertainphysicalenvironmentshavesomeinfluencesonpermanenthumansettlement.Relativelyfewpeopleliveinregionsthataretoodry,toowet,toocold,ortoomountainousforactivitiessuchasagriculture:DrylandsLandsdeficientinmoisturearesparselysettled.Thelargestdesertregion,extendingfromNorthAfricatoSouthwestandCentralAsia,isknownbytheSahara,Arabian,TaklaMakan,andGobideserts.Byconstructingirrigationsystems,peoplecansurvivebygrowingcrops(Oasis).Drylandsmaycontainnaturalresourcesusefultopeople–notably,muchoftheworld’soilreserves.WetlandsEquatorialheatandmoisture,asintheCongoandAmazonbasins,appeartodetersettlement.Toomuchrainfall(precipitation)andheatrapidlydepletenutrientsfromthesoil,thushinderingagriculture.ColdlandsFewpeopleliveinverycoldregions,suchasnorthernCanada,arcticRussia(Siberia),andnorthernScandinavia.Thepolarregionsreceivelessprecipitationthansomedesertareas,butoverthousandsyearsthesmallannualsnowfallhasaccumulatedintothickice(permafrostground).HighlandsRelativelyfewpeopleliveathighelevations.Thehighestmountainsintheworldaresteep,snow-covered,andsparselysettled,suchasMountEverest,Alps.PopulationDensityThemeasuresofdensityhelpgeographerstodescribethedistributionofpeopleincomparisontoavailableresources.ArithmeticdensityThetotalnumberofpeopledividedbytotallandarea;Arithmeticdensityanswersthe“where”question,enablinggeographerstomakecomparisonsofthenumberofpeopletryingtoliveonagivenpieceoflandindifferentregionsoftheworld.PhysiologicaldensityLandsuitedforagricultureiscalledarableland.Inaregion,thenumberofpeoplesupportedbyaunitareaofarablelandiscalledthephysiologicaldensity.Thehigherthephysiologicaldensity,thegreateristhepressurethatpeoplemayplaceonthelandtoproduceenoughfood.Hence,suchdensitymeasureprovidesinsightsintotherelationshipbetweenthesizeofapopulationandtheavailabilityofresourcesinaregion.(eg.USvs.Egypt)AgriculturaldensityTheratioofthenumberoffarmerstotheamountofarableland;Thismeasurehelpsexplaineconomicdifferences.MostDevelopedCountrieshaveloweragriculturaldensitiesbecausetechnologyandfinanceallowafewpeopletofarmextensivelandareasandfeedmanypeople.Tounderstandtherelationshipbetweenpopulationandresourcesinacountry,geographersexamineitsphysiologicalandagriculturaldensitiestogether.LookatTable2-1:EgyptandNetherlands:thephysiologicaldensitiesofbothEgypt(2147)andtheNetherlands(1450)arehigh,buttheDutch(58)haveamuchloweragriculturaldensitythantheEgyptians(737).ThatmeansthatboththeDutchandEgyptiansputheavypressureonthelandtoproducefood,butthemoreefficientDutchagriculturalsystemrequiresmanyfewerfarmersthandoestheEgyptiansystem.IndiaandNetherlands:theNetherlands(1450)hasamuchhigherphysiologicaldensitythandoesIndia(556),butamuchloweragriculturaldensity.ThisshowsthattheDutchhaveextremelylimitedarablelandtomeettheneedsoftheirpopulation(theybuiltdikesandcreatedpolders圩田，圍海造田).However,thehighlyefficientDutchfarmerscangeneratealargefoodsupplyfromalimitedresource.(DutchLady,noEgyptianLady,)Wherehastheworld’spopulationincreased?MeasuresofpopulationchangeCrudebirthrate(CBR):Thetotalnumberoflivebirthsinayearforevery1000peoplealiveinthesociety;ACDRof20meansthatforevery1000peopleinacountry,20babiesarebornovera1-yearperiod.Crudedeathrate(CDR):Thetotalnumberofdeathsinayearforevery1000peoplealiveinthesociety.Naturalincreaserate(NIR):NIR(%)=CBR-CDRThepercentagebywhichapopulationgrowsinayear.e.g.NIR=CBR(20)–CDR(5)=15per1000=1.5%“Natural”meansacountry’sgrowthrateexcludesmigration. Duringthe1990s,theworldnaturalincreaseratewas1.5,meaningthatworldpopulationgreweachyearby1.5%.Thisrateaffectsthedoublingtime,whichisthenumberofyearsneededtodoubleapopulation,assumingaconstantrateofnaturalincrease.AtthecurrentNIRof1.5%peryear,worldpopulationwoulddoubleinabout50years.Distributionofnaturalincreaseofworld’spopulationDistributionofnaturalincreaserate:Itshowsverylargeregionaldifferences.TheNIRexceeds3.0%inanumberofcountriesincentralAfrica,theMiddleEast,andCentralAmerica.Attheotherextreme,theNIRrateis0%orevennegativeinmuchofEurope,meaningthattheirpopulationisactuallydecliningintheabsenceofimmigrants.Distributionofpopulationgrowth:Allthegrowthisconcentratedinpoorercountries.Overthepast3decades,about54%oftheworld’spopulationgrowthhasbeeninAsia,15%eachinsub-SaharaAfricaandtheMiddleEast,10%inLatinAmerica;EuropeandNorthAmericaeachaccountforonly3%ofglobalpopulationgrowth.RegionaldifferencesinNIRmeanthatvirtuallyalltheworld’sadditionalpeopleliveinthecountriesthatareleastabletomaintainthem.WetlandsAwetlandisavegetatedareathatispermanentlyorperiodicallycoveredbywater,eitherfreshorsalt.Marshes,swamps,bayoutsandbogsareamongthetypicalwetlandenvironments.Wetlandsareamongthemostproductiveecosystemsonearth.Ashybridenvironment–neitherlandnorwater,wetlandsprovidelivingspaceandfoodtodifferentspecies.Videoscript:“Theworld’swetlandsareindanger.Peopleditchthem,drainthem,dikethem,dumpwasteintothem,anddrownthembehinddams.Swamps,bogs,andmarshesarelosttocreatelandtofarmorbuildupon.Asaconsequence,theworld’slosingitsnaturalwaterfilter,itsbuffersagainstfloodsanderosions,andthecriticalhabitatsandnurseriesforamyriadofspecies.”The1971RamsarConventionaimstodesignateandpreservewetlandsandprotectwildfowls.Bythelate1990s,morethan100countrieshavesignedthetreaty.Whyispopulationincreasingatdifferentratesindifferentcountries?ThedemographictransitionAllcountrieshaveexperiencedsomechangesinnaturalincreaseatdifferenttimesandatdifferentrates.Whileratesvaryamongcountries,asimilarprocessofchangeinasociety’spopulation,knowasdemographictransition,isoperating.Thedemographictransitionisaprocesswithseveralstages,andeverycountryisinoneofthem.Theprocesshasabeginning,middle,andend,anditisirreversible.Onceacountrymovesfromonestageoftheprocesstothenext,itdoesnotreverttoanearlierstage.Figure2-13Stage1–LowGrowth–veryhighbirthanddeathratesproducevirtuallynolong-termnaturalincrease:Formostofhumankind’sseveralhundred-thousand-yearoccupancyofEarth,theywereinstage1ofthedemographictransition.Thenaturalincreaseratewasessentiallyzero,andEarth’spopulationwasunchanged,atperhapsone-halfmillion.Duringmostofthisperiod,peopledependedonhuntingandgatheringforfood. Between8000B.C.andA.D.1750,Earth’shumanpopulationincreasedfromapproximately5millionto800million.Theburstofpopulationgrowtharound8000B.C.wascausedbyagriculturalrevolution,whichwasthetimewhenhumanbeingsfirstdomesticatedplantsandanimals.Despitesuchrevolution,thehumanpopulationremainedinstage1,becausefoodsupplieswerestillunpredictableduetoclimaticconditions,warsordiseasesthatstayedoutofhumancontrol. Mostofhumanhistorywasspentinstage1ofthedemographictransition,buttodaynosuchcountryremainsthere.Everycountryhasmovedontoatleaststage2andwiththattransitionhasexperiencedprofoundchangesinpopulation.Stage2–HighGrowth–rapidlydecliningdeathratescombinedwithveryhighbirthratesproduceveryhighnaturalincrease: AfteraroundA.D.1750,theworld’spopulationsuddenlybegantogrow10timesfasterthaninthepast.Thesuddenburstofpopulationgrowthoccurredbecauseinthelate18thandearly19thcenturiesseveralcountriesmovedintostage2ofthedemographictransition.Why??? Countriesenteredstage2ofthedemographictransitionafter1750asaresultoftheindustrialrevolutionwhichbeganinEnglandinthelate18thcenturyandspreadtotheEuropeancontinentandNorthAmericaduringthe19thcentury.Majorimprovementsinindustrialtechnologytransformedtheprocessofmanufacturingandtransporting,whichresultedinanunprecedentedlevelofwealth.Thewealthwasalsousedtoimprovesanitationandpersonalhygiene.Asaresultofsuchpublicimprovements,peoplewerehealthierandlivedlonger. WhereascountriesinEuropeandNorthAmericaenteredstage2about1800,stage2diffusedtocountriesinAfrica,AsiaandLatinAmericamuchmorerecently,inmostcasesafter1950.Andtherecentpushofcountriesintostage2hasbeencausedbymedicalrevolution.ImprovedmedicalpracticessuddenlyeliminatedmanyofthetraditionalcausesofdeathinLDCsandenabledmorepeopletohavelongerandhealthierlives.Stage3–ModerateGrowth–birthratesrapidlydecline,whiledeathratescontinuetodecline;naturalincreaseratesbegintomoderate: EuropeanandNorthAmericancountriesgenerallymovedfromstage2tostage3ofthedemographictransitionduringthe1sthalfofthe20thcentury.SomecountriesinAfrica,AsiaandLatinAmericahavemovedtostage3inrecentyears,whileothersremaininstage2. Thecrudedeathratedeclinedinstage2followingintroductionofnewtechnologyintothesociety,butthecrudebirthratedeclinesinstage3becauseofchangesinsocialcustoms.Asocietyentersintostage3whenpeoplechoosetohavefewerchildren.Suchdecisionoffamiliesispartlyadelayedreactiontoadeclineindeathrate.Economicchangesinstage3societies,theprocessofurbanizationinparticular,alsoinducepeopletohavefeweroffspring.Itisoftenthoughttobenotveryeconomicaltohavealargefamilyincitieswherelivingspacesaresmallerandexpensesaremuchhigherthancountryside.Stage4–LowGrowth–verylowbirthanddeathratesproducevirtuallynolong-termnaturalincrease,andpossiblyadecrease: AcountryreachesStage4ofthedemographictransitionwhenthecrudebirthratedeclinestothepointwhereitequalsthecrudedeathrate,andthenaturalincreaserateapproacheszero.Zeropopulationgrowthisatermoftenappliedtostage4countries. MostEuropeancountrieshavereachedstage4havingNIRsnear0,orevennegative.Socialcustomsagainexplainthemovementfromonestagetothenext.Increasingly,womeninstage4societiesenterthelaborforceratherthanstayathomeasfull-timehousewives.Changesinlifestylealsoencouragesmallerfamilies.Withincreasedincomeandleisuretime,morepeopleparticipateinentertainmentandrecreationactivitiesthatmaynotbesuitableforyoungchildren.Acountrythathaspassedthroughall4stagesofthedemographictransitionhasinsomewayscompletedacircle–fromlittleornonaturalincreaseinstage1,tolittleornonaturalincreaseinstage4. However,twocrucialdemographicdifferencesunderliethisprocess.First,atstage1,thecrudebirthanddeathratesarehigh,whileatstage4theratesareverylow.Second,thetotalpopulationofthecountryismuchhigherinstage4thaninstage1.AgeDistributionTheagestructureofapopulationisextremelyimportantinunderstandingsimilaritiesanddifferencesamongcountries.InnearlyeveryAfricancountry,andinmanyAsianandLatinAmericancountries,morethan40%ofthepeopleareunderage15.Thishighpercentagefollowsfromthehighcrudebirthrateintheseregions.Thelargepercentageofchildrenstrainstheabilityofpoorercountriestoprovideneededservicesforthem.Incontrast,inEuropeanandNorthAmericancountries,whichareatornearstage4ofthedemographictransition,thepercentageofchildrenunder15isonlyabout20%,andpeopleoverage65exceed15%ofthepopulationinseveralEuropeancountries,comparedtolessthan5%inmostAfricancountries.Olderpeoplebenefitinstage4countriesfromimprovedmedicalcareandhigherincomes,butthe“graying”ofthepopulationalsoplacesaburdenonEuropeanandNorthAmericangovernmentstomeettheolderpopulation’sneeds.“Why?”questionansweredWhyisworldwidepopulationincreasingrapidlytoday?Becausefewcountriesareinthetwostagesofthedemographictransitionthathavelowpopulationgrowth–nocountryremainsinstage1,andfewhavereachedstage4.Theoverwhelmingmajorityofcountriesareeitherinstage2orstage3ofthedemographictransition–stageswithrapidpopulationgrowth–andonlyafewarelikelytoreachstage4inthenearfuture.The4-stagedemographictransitionischaracterizedby2bigbreakswiththepast.Thefirstbreak–thesuddendropinthedeathratethatcomesfromtechnologicalinnovation–hasbeenaccomplishedeverywhere.Thesecondbreak–thesuddendropinthebirthratethatcomesfromchangingsocialcustoms–hasyettobeachievedinmanycountries.Havingcausedthefirstbreakwiththepastthroughdiffusionofmedicaltechnologyworldwide,EuropeanandNorthAmericancountriesnowurgeothercountriestocompletethesecondbreakwiththepast,thereductioninthebirthrate.Adeclineinthecrudedeathratecanbeinducedthroughintroductionofnewtechnologybyoutsiders,butthecrudebirthratewilldroponlywhenpeopledecideforthemselvestohavefewerchildren.Whymighttheworldfaceanoverpopulationproblem?Whydoesglobalpopulationgrowthmatter?Willcontinuedpopulationgrowthleadtoglobalstarvation,warandlowerqualityoflife?MalthusonOverpopulationEnglisheconomistThomasMalthus(1766-1834)wasoneofthefirsttoarguethattheworld’sratepopulationincreasewasfaroutrunningthedevelopmentoffoodsupplies.Malthus’sviewsremaininfluentialtoday.MalthusclaimedthatpopulationwasgrowingmuchmorerapidlythanEarth’sfoodsupply,becausepopulationincreasedgeometrically,whilefoodsupplyincreasedarithmetically.Malthusontherelationshipsbetweenpeopleandfoodinfutureproducedbygrowthrates:Today:1person,1unitoffood25yearsfromnow:2persons,2unitsoffood50yearsfromnow:4persons,3unitsoffood75yearsfromnow:8persons,4unitsoffood100yearsfromnow:16persons,5unitsoffoodHeconcludedthatpopulationgrowthwouldpressagainstavailableresourcesineverycountry,unless“moralrestraint”producedlowercrudebirthratesorunlessdisease,famine,war,orotherdisastersproducedhighercrudedeathrates.Neo-MalthusiansContemporarygeographershavebroadenedMalthus’stheorytoencompassawidevarietyofresources,ratherthanonlyfood.Theypaintafrighteningpictureofaworldinwhichbillionsofpeopleareengagedinadesperatesearchforfoodandfuel.ManyLDCshaveexpandedtheirfoodproductionsignificantlyinrecentyears,buttheyhavemorepoorpeoplethaneverbefore.Becausepopulationgrowthoutpacedeconomicdevelopment,alltheeconomicgrowthwasabsorbedsimplyinaccommodatingtheadditionalpopulation.DebateoverhowtoreducenaturalincreaseWithdeathratescontrolled,forthefirsttimeinhistorythemostcriticalfactordeterminingthesizeoftheworld’spopulationisthebirthrate.Scientistsagreethatthecurrentrateofnaturalincreasemustbereduced,buttheydisagreeontheappropriatemethodsforachievingthisgoal.Theoretically,forcountriescurrentlyinstage2ofthedemographictransition–highgrowth–naturalincreasecanbereducedinonly2ways:Returntostage1byraisingthecrudedeathrateuptothelevelofthecrudebirthrate.Movetostages3and4byloweringthecrudebirthratetothelevelofthecrudedeathrate.Fewpeoplewishtoseethefirstalternativerealized,leavingthesecondalternativeastheonlyhumanchoice.Scientistsandpublichealthofficialsdebateoverbestmeanstoachievelowerbirthrates.Onealternativeemphasizesrelianceoneconomicdevelopment,theotherondistributionofcontraceptives.EconomicdevelopmentalternativeThisalternativestressestheimportanceofimprovinglocaleconomicconditions.Awealthiercommunityhasmoremoneytospendoneducationandhealthcareprogramsthatwouldpromotelowerbirthrates.Witheconomicconditionsimproved,womenwouldgetbettereducationandthereforebetterunderstandtheirreproductiverights.Withimprovedhealthcareprograms,infantswouldhavebetterchancestolivelonger.Andwiththesurvivalofmoreinfantsassured,womenwouldbemorelikelytochoosetolimitthenumberofchildrenwithmoreeffectivemethodsofcontraception.DistributionofcontraceptivesThisapproachemphasizestheimportanceofrapidlydiffusingmoderncontraceptivemethods.Economicdevelopmentmaypromotelowerbirthratesinthelongrun,buttheworldcannotwaitaroundforthatapproachtotakeeffect.Puttingresourcesintofamily-planningprogramscanreducebirthratesmuchmorerapidly.InLDCs,demandforcontraceptivedevicesisgreaterthantheavailablesupply.Therefore,themosteffectivewaytoincreasetheiruseistodistributemoreofthemcheaplyandquickly.Accordingtothisapproach,contraceptivesarethebestmethodf